A Novel SAVE Score to Stratify Decompensation Risk in Compensated Advanced Chronic Liver Disease (CHESS2102): An International Multicenter Cohort Study.

INTRODUCTION: In patients with compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD), the invasive measurement of hepatic venous pressure gradient is the best predictor of hepatic decompensation. This study aimed at developing an alternative risk prediction model to provide a decompensation risk assessment in cACLD. METHODS: Patients with cACLD were retrospectively included from 9 international centers within the Portal Hypertension Alliance in China (CHESS) network. Baseline variables from a Japanese cohort of 197 patients with cACLD were examined and fitted a Cox hazard regression model to develop a specific score for predicting hepatic decompensation. The novel score was validated in an external cohort (n = 770) from 5 centers in China, Singapore, Korea, and Egypt, and was further assessed for the ability of predicting clinically significant portal hypertension in a hepatic venous pressure gradient cohort (n = 285). RESULTS: In the derivation cohort, independent predictors of hepatic decompensation were identified including Stiffness of liver, Albumin, Varices, and platElets and fitted to develop the novel score, termed "SAVE" score. This score performed significantly better (all P < 0.05) than other assessed methods with a time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.89 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.83-0.94) and 0.83 (95% CI: 0.73-0.92) in the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively. The decompensation risk was best stratified by the cutoff values at -6 and -4.5. The 5-year cumulative incidences of decompensation were 0%, 24.9%, and 69.0% in the low-risk, middle-risk, and high-risk groups, respectively ( P < 0.001). The SAVE score also accurately predicted clinically significant portal hypertension (AUC, 0.85 95% CI: 0.80-0.90). DISCUSSION: The SAVE score can be readily incorporated into clinical practice to accurately predict the individual risk of hepatic decompensation in cACLD.

CHESS-ALARM score to stratify decompensation risk in compensated advanced chronic liver disease patients: An international multicenter study.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: A combination of platelet and elastography (PE criteria) was proposed to identify compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD) patients at risk of liver decompensation. We aim to validate and refine PE criteria by developing a new predictive score to predict decompensation in Asian cACLD patients. METHODS: An international cohort of 633 cACLD patients with liver stiffness measurement (LSM) and esophagogastroduodenoscopy performed were included. We validated PE criteria to predict first liver decompensation using competing risk analysis, with death and hepatocellular carcinoma as competing events. We developed a predictive model using proportional subdistribution hazard regression. Prognostic accuracy was compared with the model of end-stage liver disease (MELD), albumin-bilirubin (ALBI), and ALBI-FIB-4 score using time-dependent area under operative characteristic curve (tAUC). RESULTS: Sixty patients developed decompensation over the median follow-up of 39 months. Favorable Baveno VI status ruled out cACLD patients at risk of liver decompensation. LSM > 25 kPa was suboptimal to predict cACLD patients who will develop liver decompensation. We developed CHESS-ALARM score by incorporating age, platelet, and gender into LSM. CHESS-ALARM score (tAUC = 0.86, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.79-0.94) has significantly higher accuracy than MELD (tAUC: 0.61), ALBI (tAUC: 0.62), ALBI-FIB-4 (tAUC: 0.70), and LSM > 25 kPa (tAUC: 0.54) to predict liver decompensation at 5 years (P < 0.05 for all). Patients with CHESS-ALARM score ≥ -0.37 had an 11-fold higher risk of decompensation (subdistribution hazard ratio = 11.2, 95% CI: 5.1-24.5). CONCLUSION: CHESS-ALARM score can be readily incorporated into clinical practice of cACLD patients to estimate individual risk of liver decompensation; however, more data are required in morbidly obese cACLD patients of nonviral etiology.

Efficacy and safety of albumin infusion for overt hepatic encephalopathy: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The efficacy and safety of albumin infusion for treatment and prevention of overt hepatic encephalopathy (OHE) among cirrhosis patients remained controversial. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to evaluate the benefit of albumin infusion for the treatment and prevention of OHE. METHODS: We performed a systematic search of 4 electronic databases up to 31st January 2021. The primary outcome was the resolution of OHE. Secondary outcomes were inpatient mortality and albumin-associated adverse events. We assessed the pooled odds' risk, pooled mean differences, 95% confidence interval and heterogeneity using Review Manager Version 5.3. RESULTS: A total of 12 studies (2,087 subjects) were identified. Among cirrhosis patients with OHE, albumin infusion was associated with a lower pooled risk of OHE (OR=0.43, 95%CI: 0.27, 0.68; I2=0%). Among patients without baseline OHE, albumin infusion was associated with a lower pooled risk of developing OHE (OR=0.53, 95%CI: 0.32, 0.86; I2=62%). Albumin infusion was associated with a lower pooled risk of inpatient mortality (OR=0.36, 95%CI: 0.21, 0.60; I2=0%). CONCLUSION: Well-powered randomized trials are required to confirm the benefits of albumin infusion for the prevention and treatment of overt hepatic encephalopathy among decompensated cirrhosis patients.