Development and validation of a simple risk scoring system for a COVID-19 diagnostic prediction mode.

Introduction: In a resource-constrained situation, a clinical risk stratification system can assist in identifying individuals who are at higher risk and should be tested for COVID-19. This study aims to find a predictive scoring model to estimate the COVID-19 diagnosis." Materials: Patients who applied to the emergency pandemic clinic between April 2020 and March 2021 were enrolled in this retrospective study. At admission, demographic characteristics, symptoms, comorbid diseases, chest computed tomography (CT), and laboratory findings were all recorded. Development and validation datasets were created. The scoring system was performed using the coefficients of the odds ratios obtained from the multivariable logistic regression analysis." Result: Among 1187 patients admitted to the hospital, the median age was 58 years old (22-96), and 52.7% were male. In a multivariable analysis, typical radiological findings (OR= 8.47, CI= 5.48-13.10, p< 0.001) and dyspnea (OR= 2.85, CI= 1.71-4.74, p< 0.001) were found to be the two important risk actors for COVID-19 diagnosis, followed by myalgia (OR= 1.80, CI= 1.08- 2.99, p= 0.023), cough (OR= 1.65, CI= 1.16-2.26, p= 0.006) and fatigue symptoms (OR= 1.57, CI= 1.06-2.30, p= 0.023). In our scoring system, dyspnea was scored as 2 points, cough as 1 point, fatigue as 1 point, myalgia as 1 point, and typical radiological findings were scored as 5 points. This scoring system had a sensitivity of 71% and a specificity of 76.3% for a cut-off value of >2, with a total score of 10 (p< 0.001). Conclusions: The predictive scoring system could accurately predict the diagnosis of COVID-19 infection, which gave clinicians a theoretical basis for devising immediate treatment options. An evaluation of the predictive efficacy of the scoring system necessitates a multi-center investigation.

Interleukin-21: a potential biomarker for diagnosis and predicting prognosis in COVID-19 patients

Background/aim: COVID-19 patients have a wide spectrum of disease severity. Several biomarkers were evaluated as predictors for progression towards severe disease. IL-21 is a member of common γ-chain cytokine family and creates some specific effects during programming and maintenance of antiviral immunity. We aimed to assess IL-21 as a biomarker for diagnosis and outcome prediction in patients hospitalized with COVID-19. Materials and methods: Patients with a preliminary diagnosis of COVID-19 and pneumonia other than COVID-19 admitted to a tertiary care hospital were included consecutively in this comparative study. Results: The study population consisted of 51 patients with COVID-19 and 11 patients with non-COVID-19 pneumonia. Serum IL-21 concentration was markedly higher, and serum CRP concentration was significantly lower in COVID-19 patients compared to non-COVID-19 pneumonia patients. Within COVID-19 patients, 10 patients showed radiological and clinical progression. Patients with clinical worsening had lower lymphocyte count and haemoglobin. In addition to that, deteriorating patients had higher urea, LDH levels, and elevated concentration of both IL-6 and IL-21. The cut-off value of 106 ng/L for IL-21 has 80.0% sensitivity, %60.9 specificity for discriminating patients with clinical worsening. Multivariable analysis performed to define risk factors for disease progression identified IL-6 and IL-21 as independent predictors. Odds ratio for serum IL-6 concentrations ≥ 3.2 pg/mL was 8.07 (95% CI: 1.37-47.50, p = 0.04) and odds ratio for serum IL-21 concentrations ≥ 106 ng/L was 6.24 (95% CI: 1.04 ­ 37.3, p = 0.02). Conclusion: We identified specific differences in serum IL-21 between COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 pneumonia patients. Serum IL-21 measurement has promising predictive value for disease progression in COVID-19 patients. High serum IL-6 and IL-21 levels obtained upon admission are independent risk factors for clinical worsening.