National food production stabilized by crop diversity.

Increasing global food demand, low grain reserves and climate change threaten the stability of food systems on national to global scales1-5. Policies to increase yields, irrigation and tolerance of crops to drought have been proposed as stability-enhancing solutions1,6,7. Here we evaluate a complementary possibility-that greater diversity of crops at the national level may increase the year-to-year stability of the total national harvest of all crops combined. We test this crop diversity-stability hypothesis using 5 decades of data on annual yields of 176 crop species in 91 nations. We find that greater effective diversity of crops at the national level is associated with increased temporal stability of total national harvest. Crop diversity has stabilizing effects that are similar in magnitude to the observed destabilizing effects of variability in precipitation. This greater stability reflects markedly lower frequencies of years with sharp harvest losses. Diversity effects remained robust after statistically controlling for irrigation, fertilization, precipitation, temperature and other variables, and are consistent with the variance-scaling characteristics of individual crops required by theory8,9 for diversity to lead to stability. Ensuring stable food supplies is a challenge that will probably require multiple solutions. Our results suggest that increasing national effective crop diversity may be an additional way to address this challenge.

Global protected areas seem insufficient to safeguard half of the world's mammals from human-induced extinction.

Protected areas (PAs) are a cornerstone of global conservation and central to international plans to minimize global extinctions. During the coming century, global ecosystem destruction and fragmentation associated with increased human population and economic activity could make the long-term survival of most terrestrial vertebrates even more dependent on PAs. However, the capacity of the current global PA network to sustain species for the long term is unknown. Here, we explore this question for all nonvolant terrestrial mammals for which we found sufficient data, ∼4,000 species. We first estimate the potential population size of each such mammal species in each PA and then use three different criteria to estimate if solely the current global network of PAs might be sufficient for their long-term survival. Our analyses suggest that current PAs may fail to provide robust protection for about half the species analyzed, including most species currently listed as threatened with extinction and a third of species not currently listed as threatened. Hundreds of mammal species appear to have no viable protected populations. Underprotected species were found across all body sizes, taxonomic groups, and geographic regions. Large-bodied mammals, endemic species, and those in high-biodiversity tropical regions were particularly poorly protected by existing PAs. As new international biodiversity targets are formulated, our results suggest that the global network of PAs must be greatly expanded and most importantly that PAs must be located in diverse regions that encompass species not currently protected and must be large enough to ensure that protected species can persist for the long term.

Estimating the environmental impacts of 57,000 food products.

Understanding and communicating the environmental impacts of food products is key to enabling transitions to environmentally sustainable food systems [El Bilali and Allahyari, Inf. Process. Agric. 5, 456-464 (2018)]. While previous analyses compared the impacts of food commodities such as fruits, wheat, and beef [Poore and Nemecek, Science 360, 987-992 (2018)], most food products contain numerous ingredients. However, because the amount of each ingredient in a product is often known only by the manufacturer, it has been difficult to assess their environmental impacts. Here, we develop an approach to overcome this limitation. It uses prior knowledge from ingredient lists to infer the composition of each ingredient, and then pairs this with environmental databases [Poore and Nemecek Science 360, 987-992 (2018); Gephart et al., Nature 597, 360-365 (2021)] to derive estimates of a food product's environmental impact across four indicators: greenhouse gas emissions, land use, water stress, and eutrophication potential. Using the approach on 57,000 products in the United Kingdom and Ireland shows food types have low (e.g., sugary beverages, fruits, breads), to intermediate (e.g., many desserts, pastries), to high environmental impacts (e.g., meat, fish, cheese). Incorporating NutriScore reveals more nutritious products are often more environmentally sustainable but there are exceptions to this trend, and foods consumers may view as substitutable can have markedly different impacts. Sensitivity analyses indicate the approach is robust to uncertainty in ingredient composition and in most cases sourcing. This approach provides a step toward enabling consumers, retailers, and policy makers to make informed decisions on the environmental impacts of food products.

Quantifying the environmental limits to fire spread in grassy ecosystems.

Modeling fire spread as an infection process is intuitive: An ignition lights a patch of fuel, which infects its neighbor, and so on. Infection models produce nonlinear thresholds, whereby fire spreads only when fuel connectivity and infection probability are sufficiently high. These thresholds are fundamental both to managing fire and to theoretical models of fire spread, whereas applied fire models more often apply quasi-empirical approaches. Here, we resolve this tension by quantifying thresholds in fire spread locally, using field data from individual fires (n = 1,131) in grassy ecosystems across a precipitation gradient (496 to 1,442 mm mean annual precipitation) and evaluating how these scaled regionally (across 533 sites) and across time (1989 to 2012 and 2016 to 2018) using data from Kruger National Park in South Africa. An infection model captured observed patterns in individual fire spread better than competing models. The proportion of the landscape that burned was well described by measurements of grass biomass, fuel moisture, and vapor pressure deficit. Regionally, averaging across variability resulted in quasi-linear patterns. Altogether, results suggest that models aiming to capture fire responses to global change should incorporate nonlinear fire spread thresholds but that linear approximations may sufficiently capture medium-term trends under a stationary climate.

Trade-offs between deer herbivory and nitrogen competition alter grassland forb composition.

Two of the major factors that control the composition of herbaceous plant communities are competition for limiting soil resources and herbivory. We present results from a 14-year full factorial experiment in a tallgrass prairie ecosystem that crossed nitrogen (N) addition with fencing to exclude white-tailed deer, Odocoileus virginianus, from half the plots. Deer presence was associated with only modest decreases in aboveground plant biomass (14% decrease; -45 ± 19 g m-2) with no interaction with N addition. N addition at 5.44 and 9.52 g N m-2 year-1 led to increases in biomass. There were weak increases in species richness associated with deer presence, but only for no or low added N (1 and 2 g N m-2 year-1). However, the presence of deer greatly impacted the abundances of some of the dominant perennial forb species, but not the dominant grasses. Deer presence increased the abundance of the forb Artemisia ludoviciana by 34 ± 12 SE g m-2 (94%) and decreased the forb Solidago rigida by 32 ± 13 SE g m-2 (79%). We suggest that these changes may have resulted from trade-offs in plant competitive ability for soil N versus resistance to deer herbivory. Field observations suggest deer acted as florivores, mainly consuming the flowers of susceptible forb species. The preferential consumption of flowers of forbs that seem to be superior N competitors appears to create an axis of interspecific niche differentiation. The overpopulation of white-tailed deer in many tallgrass reserves likely structures the abundance of forb species.

Options for keeping the food system within environmental limits.

The food system is a major driver of climate change, changes in land use, depletion of freshwater resources, and pollution of aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems through excessive nitrogen and phosphorus inputs. Here we show that between 2010 and 2050, as a result of expected changes in population and income levels, the environmental effects of the food system could increase by 50-90% in the absence of technological changes and dedicated mitigation measures, reaching levels that are beyond the planetary boundaries that define a safe operating space for humanity. We analyse several options for reducing the environmental effects of the food system, including dietary changes towards healthier, more plant-based diets, improvements in technologies and management, and reductions in food loss and waste. We find that no single measure is enough to keep these effects within all planetary boundaries simultaneously, and that a synergistic combination of measures will be needed to sufficiently mitigate the projected increase in environmental pressures.

Plant biodiversity and the regeneration of soil fertility.

Fertile soils have been an essential resource for humanity for 10,000 y, but the ecological mechanisms involved in the creation and restoration of fertile soils, and especially the role of plant diversity, are poorly understood. Here we use results of a long-term, unfertilized plant biodiversity experiment to determine whether biodiversity, especially plant functional biodiversity, impacted the regeneration of fertility on a degraded sandy soil. After 23 y, plots containing 16 perennial grassland plant species had, relative to monocultures of these same species, ∼30 to 90% greater increases in soil nitrogen, potassium, calcium, magnesium, cation exchange capacity, and carbon and had ∼150 to 370% greater amounts of N, K, Ca, and Mg in plant biomass. Our results suggest that biodiversity, likely in combination with the increased plant productivity caused by higher biodiversity, led to greater soil fertility. Moreover, plots with high plant functional diversity, those containing grasses, legumes, and forbs, accumulated significantly greater N, K, Ca, and Mg in the total nutrient pool (plant biomass and soil) than did plots containing just one of these three functional groups. Plant species in these functional groups had trade-offs between their tissue N content, tissue K content, and root mass, suggesting why species from all three functional groups were essential for regenerating soil fertility. Our findings suggest that efforts to regenerate soil C stores and soil fertility may be aided by creative uses of plant diversity.

Air quality-related health damages of food.

Agriculture is a major contributor to air pollution, the largest environmental risk factor for mortality in the United States and worldwide. It is largely unknown, however, how individual foods or entire diets affect human health via poor air quality. We show how food production negatively impacts human health by increasing atmospheric fine particulate matter (PM2.5), and we identify ways to reduce these negative impacts of agriculture. We quantify the air quality-related health damages attributable to 95 agricultural commodities and 67 final food products, which encompass >99% of agricultural production in the United States. Agricultural production in the United States results in 17,900 annual air quality-related deaths, 15,900 of which are from food production. Of those, 80% are attributable to animal-based foods, both directly from animal production and indirectly from growing animal feed. On-farm interventions can reduce PM2.5-related mortality by 50%, including improved livestock waste management and fertilizer application practices that reduce emissions of ammonia, a secondary PM2.5 precursor, and improved crop and animal production practices that reduce primary PM2.5 emissions from tillage, field burning, livestock dust, and machinery. Dietary shifts toward more plant-based foods that maintain protein intake and other nutritional needs could reduce agricultural air quality-related mortality by 68 to 83%. In sum, improved livestock and fertilization practices, and dietary shifts could greatly decrease the health impacts of agriculture caused by its contribution to reduced air quality.

Plant chemical traits define functional and phylogenetic axes of plant biodiversity.

To determine which types of plant traits might better explain ecosystem functioning and plant evolutionary histories, we compiled 42 traits for each of 15 perennial species in a biodiversity experiment. We used every possible combination of three traits to cluster species. Across these 11,480 combinations, clusters generated using tissue %Ca, %N and %K best mapped onto phylogeny. Moreover, for the 15 best combinations of three traits, 82% of traits were chemical, 16% morphological and 2% metabolic. The diversity-dependence of ecosystem productivity was better explained by the %Ca, %N and %K clusters: compared to adding a new species at random, adding a species from an absent cluster/clade better-explained gains in productivity. Species number impacted productivity only when all clusters were present. Our results suggest that tissue elemental chemistry might be more phylogenetically conserved and more strongly related to ecosystem functioning than commonly measured morphological and physiological traits, a possibility that merits exploration.

Future threats to biodiversity and pathways to their prevention.

Tens of thousands of species are threatened with extinction as a result of human activities. Here we explore how the extinction risks of terrestrial mammals and birds might change in the next 50 years. Future population growth and economic development are forecasted to impose unprecedented levels of extinction risk on many more species worldwide, especially the large mammals of tropical Africa, Asia and South America. Yet these threats are not inevitable. Proactive international efforts to increase crop yields, minimize land clearing and habitat fragmentation, and protect natural lands could increase food security in developing nations and preserve much of Earth's remaining biodiversity.

Impact of multiple small and persistent threats on extinction risk.

Many species may face multiple distinct and persistent drivers of extinction risk, yet theoretical and empirical studies tend to focus on the single largest driver. This means that existing approaches potentially underestimate and mischaracterize future risks to biodiversity. We synthesized existing knowledge on how multiple drivers of extinction can interact to influence a species' overall extinction probability in a probabilistic model of extinction risk that incorporated the impacts of multiple drivers of extinction risk, their interactions, and their accumulative effects through time. We then used this model framework to explore how different threats, interactions between them, and time trends may affect a species' overall extinction probability. Multiple small threats together had potential to pose a large cumulative extinction risk; for example, 10 individual threats posed a 1% extinction risk each and cumulatively posed a 9.7% total extinction risk. Interactions among drivers resulted in escalated risk in some cases, and persistent threats with a small (1%) extinction risk each decade ultimately posed large extinction risk over 100 (9.6% total extinction risk) to 200 years (18.2% total extinction risk). By estimating long-term extinction risk posed by several different factors and their interactions, this approach provides a framework to identify drivers of extinction risk that could be proactively targeted to help prevent species currently of least concern from becoming threatened with extinction.

Muchas especies pueden enfrentarse a múltiples impulsores distintivos y persistentes del riesgo de extinción, aunque los estudios teóricos y empíricos tienden a enfocarse en el impulsor más relevante. Esto significa que las estrategias existentes tienen el potencial de subestimar y caracterizar erróneamente los riesgos para la biodiversidad en el futuro. Sintetizamos el conocimiento existente sobre cómo los múltiples impulsores de la extinción pueden interactuar para influir sobre la probabilidad general de extinción de una especie en un modelo probabilístico del riesgo de extinción, el cual incorporó los impactos de los múltiples impulsores del riesgo de extinción, sus interacciones y sus efectos acumulativos a través del tiempo. Después usamos este modelo para explorar cómo las diferentes amenazas, las interacciones entre ellas y las tendencias temporales pueden afectar la probabilidad general de extinción de una especie. El conjunto de múltiples amenazas pequeñas tuvo el potencial de representar un gran riesgo de extinción acumulativo; por ejemplo, cada una de diez amenazas individuales representó 1% de riesgo de extinción, y acumuladas representaron un riesgo total de extinción de 9.7%. Las interacciones entre los impulsores resultaron en un riesgo escalado en algunos casos, y las amenazas persistentes con un riesgo pequeño (1%) de extinción durante cada década al final representaron un gran riesgo de extinción después de 100 (9.6% del riesgo total de extinción) y 200 años (18.2% del riesgo total de extinción). Mediante la estimación del riesgo de extinción a largo plazo que presentan los diferentes factores y sus interacciones, esta estrategia proporciona un marco para identificar los impulsores del riesgo de extinción que podrían focalizarse proactivamente para ayudar a prevenir que las especies que actualmente están en menor riesgo se conviertan en especies amenazadas.

Multiple health and environmental impacts of foods.

Food choices are shifting globally in ways that are negatively affecting both human health and the environment. Here we consider how consuming an additional serving per day of each of 15 foods is associated with 5 health outcomes in adults and 5 aspects of agriculturally driven environmental degradation. We find that while there is substantial variation in the health outcomes of different foods, foods associated with a larger reduction in disease risk for one health outcome are often associated with larger reductions in disease risk for other health outcomes. Likewise, foods with lower impacts on one metric of environmental harm tend to have lower impacts on others. Additionally, of the foods associated with improved health (whole grain cereals, fruits, vegetables, legumes, nuts, olive oil, and fish), all except fish have among the lowest environmental impacts, and fish has markedly lower impacts than red meats and processed meats. Foods associated with the largest negative environmental impacts-unprocessed and processed red meat-are consistently associated with the largest increases in disease risk. Thus, dietary transitions toward greater consumption of healthier foods would generally improve environmental sustainability, although processed foods high in sugars harm health but can have relatively low environmental impacts. These findings could help consumers, policy makers, and food companies to better understand the multiple health and environmental implications of food choices.

Biodiversity increases the resistance of ecosystem productivity to climate extremes.

It remains unclear whether biodiversity buffers ecosystems against climate extremes, which are becoming increasingly frequent worldwide. Early results suggested that the ecosystem productivity of diverse grassland plant communities was more resistant, changing less during drought, and more resilient, recovering more quickly after drought, than that of depauperate communities. However, subsequent experimental tests produced mixed results. Here we use data from 46 experiments that manipulated grassland plant diversity to test whether biodiversity provides resistance during and resilience after climate events. We show that biodiversity increased ecosystem resistance for a broad range of climate events, including wet or dry, moderate or extreme, and brief or prolonged events. Across all studies and climate events, the productivity of low-diversity communities with one or two species changed by approximately 50% during climate events, whereas that of high-diversity communities with 16-32 species was more resistant, changing by only approximately 25%. By a year after each climate event, ecosystem productivity had often fully recovered, or overshot, normal levels of productivity in both high- and low-diversity communities, leading to no detectable dependence of ecosystem resilience on biodiversity. Our results suggest that biodiversity mainly stabilizes ecosystem productivity, and productivity-dependent ecosystem services, by increasing resistance to climate events. Anthropogenic environmental changes that drive biodiversity loss thus seem likely to decrease ecosystem stability, and restoration of biodiversity to increase it, mainly by changing the resistance of ecosystem productivity to climate events.

Grassland biodiversity can pay.

The biodiversity-ecosystem functioning (BEF) literature provides strong evidence of the biophysical basis for the potential profitability of greater diversity but does not address questions of optimal management. BEF studies typically focus on the ecosystem outputs produced by randomly assembled communities that only differ in their biodiversity levels, measured by indices such as species richness. Landholders, however, do not randomly select species to plant; they choose particular species that collectively maximize profits. As such, their interest is not in comparing the average performance of randomly assembled communities at each level of biodiversity but rather comparing the best-performing communities at each diversity level. Assessing the best-performing mixture requires detailed accounting of species' identities and relative abundances. It also requires accounting for the financial cost of individual species' seeds, and the economic value of changes in the quality, quantity, and variability of the species' collective output-something that existing multifunctionality indices fail to do. This study presents an assessment approach that integrates the relevant factors into a single, coherent framework. It uses ecological production functions to inform an economic model consistent with the utility-maximizing decisions of a potentially risk-averse private landowner. We demonstrate the salience and applicability of the framework using data from an experimental grassland to estimate production relationships for hay and carbon storage. For that case, our results suggest that even a risk-neutral, profit-maximizing landowner would favor a highly diverse mix of species, with optimal species richness falling between the low levels currently found in commercial grasslands and the high levels found in natural grasslands.

Grassland ecosystem recovery after soil disturbance depends on nutrient supply rate.

Human disturbances alter the functioning and biodiversity of many ecosystems. These ecosystems may return to their pre-disturbance state after disturbance ceases; however, humans have altered the environment in ways that may change the rate or direction of this recovery. For example, human activities have increased supplies of biologically limiting nutrients, such as nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P), which can reduce grassland diversity and increase productivity. We tracked the recovery of a grassland for two decades following an intensive agricultural disturbance under ambient and elevated nutrient conditions. Productivity returned to pre-disturbance levels quickly under ambient nutrient conditions, but nutrient addition slowed this recovery. In contrast, the effects of disturbance on diversity remained hidden for 15 years, at which point diversity began to increase in unfertilised plots. This work demonstrates that enrichment of terrestrial ecosystems by humans may alter the recovery of ecosystems and that disturbance effects may remain hidden for many years.

Resistance of soil biota and plant growth to disturbance increases with plant diversity.

Plant diversity is critical to the functioning of ecosystems, potentially mediated in part by interactions with soil biota. Here, we characterised multiple groups of soil biota across a plant diversity gradient in a long-term experiment. We then subjected soil samples taken along this gradient to drought, freezing and a mechanical disturbance to test how plant diversity affects the responses of soil biota and growth of a focal plant to these disturbances. High plant diversity resulted in soils that were dominated by fungi and associated soil biota, including increased arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi and reduced plant-feeding nematodes. Disturbance effects on the soil biota were reduced when plant diversity was high, resulting in higher growth of the focal plant in all but the frozen soils. These results highlight the importance of plant diversity for soil communities and their resistance to disturbance, with potential feedback effects on plant productivity.

Diversity-dependent soil acidification under nitrogen enrichment constrains biomass productivity.

In most plant communities, the net effect of nitrogen enrichment is an increase in plant productivity. However, nitrogen enrichment also has been shown to decrease species richness and to acidify soils, each of which may diminish the long-term impact of nutrient enrichment on productivity. Here we use a long-term (20 year) grassland plant diversity by nitrogen enrichment experiment in Minnesota, United States (a subexperiment within the BioCON experiment) to quantify the net impacts of nitrogen enrichment on productivity, including its potential indirect effects on productivity via changes in species richness and soil pH over an experimental diversity gradient. Overall, we found that nitrogen enrichment led to an immediate positive increment in productivity, but that this effect became nonsignificant over later years of the experiment, with the difference in productivity between fertilized and unfertilized plots decreasing in proportion to nitrogen addition-dependent declines in soil pH and losses of plant diversity. The net effect of nitrogen enrichment on productivity could have been 14.5% more on average over 20 years in monocultures if not for nitrogen-induced decreases in pH and about 28.5% more on average over 20 years in 16 species communities if not for nitrogen-induced species richness losses. Together, these results suggest that the positive effects of nutrient enrichment on biomass production can diminish in their magnitude over time, especially because of soil acidification in low diversity communities and especially because of plant diversity loss in initially high diversity communities.

Community diversity outweighs effect of warming on plant colonization.

Abiotic environmental change, local species extinctions and colonization of new species often co-occur. Whether species colonization is driven by changes in abiotic conditions or reduced biotic resistance will affect community functional composition and ecosystem management. We use a grassland experiment to disentangle effects of climate warming and community diversity on plant species colonization. Community diversity had dramatic impacts on the biomass, richness and traits of plant colonists. Three times as many species colonized the monocultures than the high diversity 17 species communities (~30 vs. 10 species), and colonists collectively produced 10 times as much biomass in the monocultures than the high diversity communities (~30 vs. 3 g/m2 ). Colonists with resource-acquisitive strategies (high specific leaf area, light seeds, short heights) accrued more biomass in low diversity communities, whereas species with conservative strategies accrued most biomass in high diversity communities. Communities with higher biomass of resident C4 grasses were more resistant to colonization by legume, nonlegume forb and C3 grass colonists, but not by C4 grass colonists. Compared with effects of diversity, 6 years of 3°C-above-ambient temperatures had little impact on plant colonization. Warmed subplots had ~3 fewer colonist species than ambient subplots and selected for heavier seeded colonists. They also showed diversity-dependent changes in biomass of C3 grass colonists, which decreased under low diversity and increased under high diversity. Our findings suggest that species colonization is more strongly affected by biotic resistance from residents than 3°C of climate warming. If these results were extended to invasive species management, preserving community diversity should help limit plant invasion, even under climate warming.