Dairying, diseases and the evolution of lactase persistence in Europe.

In European and many African, Middle Eastern and southern Asian populations, lactase persistence (LP) is the most strongly selected monogenic trait to have evolved over the past 10,000 years1. Although the selection of LP and the consumption of prehistoric milk must be linked, considerable uncertainty remains concerning their spatiotemporal configuration and specific interactions2,3. Here we provide detailed distributions of milk exploitation across Europe over the past 9,000 years using around 7,000 pottery fat residues from more than 550 archaeological sites. European milk use was widespread from the Neolithic period onwards but varied spatially and temporally in intensity. Notably, LP selection varying with levels of prehistoric milk exploitation is no better at explaining LP allele frequency trajectories than uniform selection since the Neolithic period. In the UK Biobank4,5 cohort of 500,000 contemporary Europeans, LP genotype was only weakly associated with milk consumption and did not show consistent associations with improved fitness or health indicators. This suggests that other reasons for the beneficial effects of LP should be considered for its rapid frequency increase. We propose that lactase non-persistent individuals consumed milk when it became available but, under conditions of famine and/or increased pathogen exposure, this was disadvantageous, driving LP selection in prehistoric Europe. Comparison of model likelihoods indicates that population fluctuations, settlement density and wild animal exploitation-proxies for these drivers-provide better explanations of LP selection than the extent of milk exploitation. These findings offer new perspectives on prehistoric milk exploitation and LP evolution.

Direct evidence for positive selection of skin, hair, and eye pigmentation in Europeans during the last 5,000 y.

Pigmentation is a polygenic trait encompassing some of the most visible phenotypic variation observed in humans. Here we present direct estimates of selection acting on functional alleles in three key genes known to be involved in human pigmentation pathways--HERC2, SLC45A2, and TYR--using allele frequency estimates from Eneolithic, Bronze Age, and modern Eastern European samples and forward simulations. Neutrality was overwhelmingly rejected for all alleles studied, with point estimates of selection ranging from around 2-10% per generation. Our results provide direct evidence that strong selection favoring lighter skin, hair, and eye pigmentation has been operating in European populations over the last 5,000 y.

Direct estimates of natural selection in Iberia indicate calcium absorption was not the only driver of lactase persistence in Europe.

Lactase persistence (LP) is a genetically determined trait whereby the enzyme lactase is expressed throughout adult life. Lactase is necessary for the digestion of lactose--the main carbohydrate in milk--and its production is downregulated after the weaning period in most humans and all other mammals studied. Several sources of evidence indicate that LP has evolved independently, in different parts of the world over the last 10,000 years, and has been subject to strong natural selection in dairying populations. In Europeans, LP is strongly associated with, and probably caused by, a single C to T mutation 13,910 bp upstream of the lactase (LCT) gene (-13,910*T). Despite a considerable body of research, the reasons why LP should provide such a strong selective advantage remain poorly understood. In this study, we examine one of the most widely cited hypotheses for selection on LP--that fresh milk consumption supplemented the poor vitamin D and calcium status of northern Europe's early farmers (the calcium assimilation hypothesis). We do this by testing for natural selection on -13,910*T using ancient DNA data from the skeletal remains of eight late Neolithic Iberian individuals, whom we would not expect to have poor vitamin D and calcium status because of relatively high incident UVB light levels. None of the eight samples successfully typed in the study had the derived T-allele. In addition, we reanalyze published data from French Neolithic remains to both test for population continuity and further examine the evolution of LP in the region. Using simulations that accommodate genetic drift, natural selection, uncertainty in calibrated radiocarbon dates, and sampling error, we find that natural selection is still required to explain the observed increase in allele frequency. We conclude that the calcium assimilation hypothesis is insufficient to explain the spread of LP in Europe.

Genomes from a medieval mass burial show Ashkenazi-associated hereditary diseases pre-date the 12th century.

We report genome sequence data from six individuals excavated from the base of a medieval well at a site in Norwich, UK. A revised radiocarbon analysis of the assemblage is consistent with these individuals being part of a historically attested episode of antisemitic violence on 6 February 1190 CE. We find that four of these individuals were closely related and all six have strong genetic affinities with modern Ashkenazi Jews. We identify four alleles associated with genetic disease in Ashkenazi Jewish populations and infer variation in pigmentation traits, including the presence of red hair. Simulations indicate that Ashkenazi-associated genetic disease alleles were already at appreciable frequencies, centuries earlier than previously hypothesized. These findings provide new insights into a significant historical crime, into Ashkenazi population history, and into the origins of genetic diseases associated with modern Jewish populations.

Directly modelling population dynamics in the South American Arid Diagonal using 14C dates.

Large anthropogenic 14C datasets are widely used to generate summed probability distributions (SPDs) as a proxy for past human population levels. However, SPDs are a poor proxy when datasets are small, bearing little relationship to true population dynamics. Instead, more robust inferences can be achieved by directly modelling the population and assessing the model likelihood given the data. We introduce the R package ADMUR which uses a continuous piecewise linear (CPL) model of population change, calculates the model likelihood given a 14C dataset, estimates credible intervals using Markov chain Monte Carlo, applies a goodness-of-fit test, and uses the Schwarz Criterion to compare CPL models. We demonstrate the efficacy of this method using toy data, showing that spurious dynamics are avoided when sample sizes are small, and true population dynamics are recovered as sample sizes increase. Finally, we use an improved 14C dataset for the South American Arid Diagonal to compare CPL modelling to current simulation methods, and identify three Holocene phases when population trajectory estimates changed from rapid initial growth of 4.15% per generation to a decline of 0.05% per generation between 10 821 and 7055 yr BP, then gently grew at 0.58% per generation until 2500 yr BP. This article is part of the theme issue 'Cross-disciplinary approaches to prehistoric demography'.

Size Reduction in Early European Domestic Cattle Relates to Intensification of Neolithic Herding Strategies.

Our analysis of over 28,000 osteometric measurements from fossil remains dating between c. 5600 and 1500 BCE reveals a substantial reduction in body mass of 33% in Neolithic central European domestic cattle. We investigate various plausible explanations for this phenotypic adaptation, dismissing climatic change as a causal factor, and further rejecting the hypothesis that it was caused by an increase in the proportion of smaller adult females in the population. Instead we find some support for the hypothesis that the size decrease was driven by a demographic shift towards smaller newborns from sub-adult breeding as a result of intensifying meat production strategies during the Neolithic.

Regional population collapse followed initial agriculture booms in mid-Holocene Europe.

Following its initial arrival in SE Europe 8,500 years ago agriculture spread throughout the continent, changing food production and consumption patterns and increasing population densities. Here we show that, in contrast to the steady population growth usually assumed, the introduction of agriculture into Europe was followed by a boom-and-bust pattern in the density of regional populations. We demonstrate that summed calibrated radiocarbon date distributions and simulation can be used to test the significance of these demographic booms and busts in the context of uncertainty in the radiocarbon date calibration curve and archaeological sampling. We report these results for Central and Northwest Europe between 8,000 and 4,000 cal. BP and investigate the relationship between these patterns and climate. However, we find no evidence to support a relationship. Our results thus suggest that the demographic patterns may have arisen from endogenous causes, although this remains speculative.