Severe Dengue Epidemic, Sri Lanka, 2017.

In 2017, a dengue epidemic of unexpected magnitude occurred in Sri Lanka. A total of 186,101 suspected cases and 440 dengue-related deaths occurred. We conducted a comprehensive analysis of this epidemic by comparing national surveillance data for 2017 with data from the preceding 5 years. In all Sri Lanka districts, dengue incidence in 2017 increased significantly over incidence during the previous 5 years. Older schoolchildren and young adults were more clinically symptomatic than those at extremes of age. Limited virologic surveillance showed the dominant circulating variant was dengue virus type 2 cosmopolitan genotype in the most affected district. One quarter of total annual cases were reported 5 weeks after the southwest monsoon started. Changes in vector abundance were not predictive of the increased incidence. Direct government expenditures on dengue control activities in 2017 were US $12.7 million. The lessons learned from this outbreak are useful for other tropical nations facing increasing dengue incidence.

Risk prediction for severe disease and better diagnostic accuracy in early dengue infection; the Colombo dengue study.

BACKGROUND: A major challenge in dengue management in resource limited settings is the confirmation of diagnosis. Clinical features of dengue often overlap with other infections and molecular diagnostic tools are not readily accessible to clinicians at hospitals. In addition, the prediction of plasma leakage in dengue is also difficult. Hematocrit level and ultrasound scans (combined with clinical parameters) are helpful to detect plasma leakage once it has happened, not before. METHODS: Colombo Dengue Study (CDS) is a prospective cohort study of clinically suspected adult dengue patients recruited from the National hospital of Sri Lanka (within the first 3 days of fever) that aimed to a) identify clinical and basic laboratory test parameters to differentiate dengue from non-dengue fever, b) evaluate the comparative efficacy of loop-mediated isothermal amplification (LAMP) for dengue diagnosis (vs. NS1 antigen test and RT-qPCR) and c) identify early associations that are predictive of plasma leakage or severe dengue. The basic laboratory tests considered here included hematological parameters, serum biochemistry and inflammatory markers. RESULTS: Only 70% of clinically suspected patients were confirmed as having dengue by either the NS1 antigen test or RT-qPCR. On a Bayesian latent class model which assumes no "gold standard", LAMP performed equally or better than RT-qPCR and NS1 antigen test respectively. When confirmed dengue patients were compared with others, the earlier group had significantly lower lymphocyte counts and higher aspartate aminotransferase levels (AST) within the first 3 days of fever. Confirmed dengue patients with plasma leakage had a lower mean age and a higher median baseline AST level compared to those without plasma leakage (p < 0.05). CONCLUSION: Clinical suspicion overestimates the true number of dengue patients. RT-LAMP is a potentially useful low-cost diagnostic tool for dengue diagnosis. Confirmed dengue patients had significantly higher AST levels and lower lymphocyte counts in early disease compared to others. In confirmed dengue patients, younger age and a higher AST level in early infection were associated with subsequent plasma leakage.

Longitudinal Analysis of Antibody Cross-neutralization Following Zika Virus and Dengue Virus Infection in Asia and the Americas.

Background: The 4 dengue virus serotypes (DENV1-4) and Zika virus (ZIKV) are related mosquito-borne flaviviruses of major importance globally. While monoclonal antibodies and plasma from DENV-immune donors can neutralize or enhance ZIKV in vitro and in small-animal models, and vice versa, the extent, duration, and significance of cross-reactivity in humans remains unknown, particularly in flavivirus-endemic regions. Methods: We studied neutralizing antibodies to ZIKV and DENV1-4 in longitudinal serologic specimens collected through 3 years after infection from people in Latin America and Asia with laboratory-confirmed DENV infections. We also evaluated neutralizing antibodies to ZIKV and DENV1-4 in patients with Zika through 6 months after infection. Results: In patients with Zika, the highest neutralizing antibody titers were to ZIKV, with low-level cross-reactivity to DENV1-4 that was greater in DENV-immune individuals. We found that, in primary and secondary DENV infections, neutralizing antibody titers to ZIKV were markedly lower than to the infecting DENV and heterologous DENV serotypes. Cross-neutralization was greatest in early convalescence, then ZIKV neutralization decreased, remaining at low levels over time. Conclusions: Patterns of antibody cross-neutralization suggest that ZIKV lies outside the DENV serocomplex. Neutralizing antibody titers can distinguish ZIKV from DENV infections when all viruses are analyzed simultaneously. These findings have implications for understanding natural immunity and vaccines.

Development of standard clinical endpoints for use in dengue interventional trials: introduction and methodology.

BACKGROUND: As increasing numbers of dengue vaccines and therapeutics are in clinical development, standardized consensus clinical endpoint definitions are urgently needed to assess the efficacy of different interventions with respect to disease severity. We aimed to convene dengue experts representing various sectors and dengue endemic areas to review the literature and propose clinical endpoint definitions for moderate and severe disease based on the framework provided by the WHO 2009 classification. METHODS: The endpoints were first proposed and discussed in a structured expert consultation. After that, the Delphi method was carried out to assess the usefulness, validity and feasibility of the standardized clinical disease endpoints for interventional dengue research. RESULTS: Most respondents (> 80%) agreed there is a need for both standardized clinical endpoints and operationalization of severe endpoints. Most respondents (67%) felt there is utility for moderate severity endpoints, but cited challenges in their development. Hospitalization as a moderate endpoint of disease severity or measure of public health impact was deemed to be useful by only 47% of respondents, but 89% felt it could bring about supplemental information if carefully contextualized according to data collection setting. Over half of the respondents favored alignment of the standard endpoints with the WHO guidelines (58%), but cautioned that the endpoints could have ramifications for public health practice. In terms of data granularity of the endpoints, there was a slight preference for a categorical vs numeric system (e.g. 1-10) (47% vs 34%), and 74% of respondents suggested validating the endpoints using large prospective data sets. CONCLUSION: The structured consensus-building process was successful taking into account the history of the debate around potential endpoints for severe dengue. There is clear support for the development of standardized endpoints for interventional clinical research and the need for subsequent validation with prospective data sets. Challenges include the complexity of developing moderate disease research endpoints for dengue.

Chymase Level Is a Predictive Biomarker of Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever in Pediatric and Adult Patients.

Background: Most patients with dengue experience mild disease, dengue fever (DF), while few develop the life-threatening diseases dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) or dengue shock syndrome (DSS). No laboratory tests predict DHF or DSS. We evaluated whether the serum chymase level can predict DHF or DSS in adult and pediatric patients and the influence of preexisting conditions (PECs) on chymase levels. Methods: Serum chymase levels were measured in patients presenting with undifferentiated fever to hospitals in Colombo District, Sri Lanka. The value of serum the chymase concentration and clinical signs and symptoms as predictors of DHF and/or DSS was evaluated by multivariate analysis. We assessed the influence of age, PECs, and day after fever onset on the robustness of the chymase level as a biomarker for DHF and/or DSS. Results: An elevated chymase level in acute phase blood samples was highly indicative of later diagnosis of DHF or DSS for pediatric and adult patients with dengue. No recorded PECs prevented an increase in the chymase level during DHF. However, certain PECs (obesity and cardiac or lung-associated diseases) resulted in a concomitant increase in chymase levels among adult patients with DHF. Conclusions: These results show that patients with acute dengue who present with high levels of serum chymase consistently are at greater risk of DHF. The chymase level is a robust prognostic biomarker of severe dengue for adult and pediatric patients.

Preexisting neutralizing antibody responses distinguish clinically inapparent and apparent dengue virus infections in a Sri Lankan pediatric cohort.

Dengue viruses (DENVs) are mosquito-borne flaviviruses that infect humans. The clinical presentation of DENV infection ranges from inapparent infection to dengue hemorrhagic fever and dengue shock syndrome. We analyzed samples from a pediatric dengue cohort study in Sri Lanka to explore whether antibody responses differentiated clinically apparent infections from clinically inapparent infections. In DENV-naive individuals exposed to primary DENV infections, we observed no difference in the quantity or quality of acquired antibodies between inapparent and apparent infections. Children who experienced primary infections had broad, serotype-cross-neutralizing antibody responses that narrowed in breadth to a single serotype over a 12-month period after infection. In DENV immune children who were experiencing a repeat infection, we observed a strong association between preexisting neutralizing antibodies and clinical outcome. Notably, children with preexisting monospecific neutralizing antibody responses were more likely to develop fever than children with cross-neutralizing responses. Preexisting DENV neutralizing antibodies are correlated with protection from dengue disease.

A cluster-randomized, placebo-controlled trial to evaluate the efficacy of a spatial repellent (Mosquito Shield™) against Aedes-borne virus infection among children ≥ 4-16 years of age in the Gampaha District, Sri Lanka: study protocol (the AEGIS program).

BACKGROUND: Spatial repellents (SRs) have been widely used for prevention of mosquito bites, but their efficacy in reducing Aedes-borne viruses (ABV) has not been tested rigorously at large scale in Asia. To address this knowledge gap, a trial to evaluate the efficacy of Mosquito Shield™, a transfluthrin SR, was developed in Gampaha District of Sri Lanka across three Medical Officer of Health areas; i.e., Negombo, Wattala, and Kelaniya. METHODS: This trial is a cluster-randomized, placebo-controlled, double-blinded clinical trial. A total of ~14,430 subjects aged ≥ 6 months in 30 clusters (15 intervention, 15 placebo) from ~3900 households (HH) will be randomly selected for enrolment into a "febrile surveillance cohort." A subset of the surveillance cohort, ~3570 subjects aged ≥4-16 years that test seronegative (naïve) or are serologically positive for a previous single dengue virus (DENV) infection (monotypic) at baseline sampling, will be enrolled into a "longitudinal cohort" for measuring DENV infection based on laboratory-confirmed seroconversion during the trial. Persons identified positive for antibodies against multiple DENV serotypes (multitypic) at baseline will be monitored for secondary analyses. Active ABV disease will be assessed using an enhanced passive surveillance system with case ascertainment performed in designated healthcare facilities. Serum samples will be taken from longitudinal cohort subjects within 1-2 weeks of when intervention is first deployed (T0) with additional samples taken ~12 (T1) and ~24 months (T2) from baseline sampling. DENV seroconversion and ABV active disease rates from baseline (pre-intervention) and follow-up (post-intervention) samples will be compared between intervention and placebo clusters. Participating houses will be monitored entomologically (indoor adult Aedes aegypti population densities and adult female blood fed status) within 3 months before intervention deployment and monthly during the intervention phase. Entomological surveys will monitor indoor adult Ae. aegypti population densities and blood fed status. Dengue incidence in each cohort will be estimated and compared to determine the public health benefit of using an SR. Entomological parameters will be measured to determine if there are entomological correlates of SR efficacy that may be useful for the evaluation of new SR products. DISCUSSION: The trial will serve as an efficacy assessment of SR products in South Asia. Results will be submitted to the World Health Organization Vector Control Advisory Group for assessment of public health value towards an endorsement to recommend inclusion of SRs in ABV control programs. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Sri Lanka Clinical Trial Registry SLCTR /2022/018. Registered on July 1, 2022. CLINICALTRIALS: gov NCT05452447 . Registered on July 11, 2022. The Universal Trial Number is U1111-1275-3055.

Spatial repellents: The current roadmap to global recommendation of spatial repellents for public health use.

Spatial repellent (SR) products are envisioned to complement existing vector control methods through the continual release of volatile active ingredients (AI) providing: (i) protection against day-time and early-evening biting; (ii) protection in enclosed/semi-enclosed and peri-domestic spaces; (iii) various formulations to fit context-specific applications; and (iv) increased coverage over traditional control methods. SR product AIs also have demonstrated effect against insecticide-resistant vectors linked to malaria and Aedes-borne virus (ABV) transmission. Over the past two decades, key stakeholders, including World Health Organization (WHO) representatives, have met to discuss the role of SRs in reducing arthropod-borne diseases based on existing evidence. A key focus has been to establish a critical development path for SRs, including scientific, regulatory and social parameters that would constitute an outline for a SR target product profile, i.e. optimum product characteristics. The principal gap is the lack of epidemiological data demonstrating SR public health impact across a range of different ecological and epidemiological settings, to inform a WHO policy recommendation. Here we describe in brief trials that are designed to fulfill evidence needs for WHO assessment and initial projections of SR cost-effectiveness against malaria and dengue.

Assessing the associations between Aedes larval indices and dengue risk in Kalutara district, Sri Lanka: a hierarchical time series analysis from 2010 to 2019.

BACKGROUND: Dengue is a major public health problem in Sri Lanka. Aedes vector surveillance and monitoring of larval indices are routine, long-established public health practices in the country. However, the association between Aedes larval indices and dengue incidence is poorly understood. It is crucial to evaluate lagged effects and threshold values of Aedes larval indices to set pragmatic targets for sustainable vector control interventions. METHODS: Monthly Aedes larval indices and dengue cases in all 10 Medical Officer of Health (MOH) divisions in Kalutara district were obtained from 2010 to 2019. Using a novel statistical approach, a distributed lag non-linear model and a two-staged hierarchical meta-analysis, we estimated the overall non-linear and delayed effects of the Premise Index (PI), Breteau Index (BI) and Container Index (CI) on dengue incidence in Kalutara district. A set of MOH division-specific variables were evaluated within the same meta-analytical framework to determine their moderator effects on dengue risk. Using generalized additive models, we assessed the utility of Aedes larval indices in predicting dengue incidence. RESULTS: We found that all three larval indices were associated with dengue risk at a lag of 1 to 2 months. The relationship between PI and dengue was homogeneous across MOH divisions, whereas that with BI and CI was heterogeneous. The threshold values of BI, PI and CI associated with dengue risk were 2, 15 and 45, respectively. All three indices showed a low to moderate accuracy in predicting dengue risk in Kalutara district. CONCLUSIONS: This study showed the potential of vector surveillance information in Kalutara district in developing a threshold-based, location-specific early warning system with a lead time of 2 months. The estimated thresholds are nonetheless time-bound and may not be universally applicable. Whenever longitudinal vector surveillance data areavailable, the methodological framework we propose here can be used to estimate location-specific Aedes larval index thresholds in any other dengue-endemic setting.

Effect of El Niño-Southern Oscillation and local weather on Aedes dvector activity from 2010 to 2018 in Kalutara district, Sri Lanka: a two-stage hierarchical analysis.

BACKGROUND: Dengue, transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes, is a major public health problem in Sri Lanka. Weather affects the abundance, feeding patterns, and longevity of Aedes vectors and hence the risk of dengue transmission. We aimed to quantify the effect of weather variability on dengue vector indices in ten Medical Officer of Health (MOH) divisions in Kalutara, Sri Lanka. METHODS: Monthly weather variables (rainfall, temperature, and Oceanic Niño Index [ONI]) and Aedes larval indices in each division in Kalutara were obtained from 2010 to 2018. Using a distributed lag non-linear model and a two-stage hierarchical analysis, we estimated and compared division-level and overall relationships between weather and premise index, Breteau index, and container index. FINDINGS: From Jan 1, 2010, to Dec 31, 2018, three El Niño events (2010, 2015-16, and 2018) occurred. Increasing monthly cumulative rainfall higher than 200 mm at a lag of 0 months, mean temperatures higher than 31·5°C at a lag of 1-2 months, and El Niño conditions (ie, ONI >0·5) at a lag of 6 months were associated with an increased relative risk of premise index and Breteau index. Container index was found to be less sensitive to temperature and ONI, and rainfall. The associations of rainfall and temperature were rather homogeneous across divisions. INTERPRETATION: Both temperature and ONI have the potential to serve as predictors of vector activity at a lead time of 1-6 months, while the amount of rainfall could indicate the magnitude of vector prevalence in the same month. This information, along with knowledge of the distribution of breeding sites, is useful for spatial risk prediction and implementation of effective Aedes control interventions. FUNDING: None.

New dengue virus type 1 genotype in Colombo, Sri Lanka.

The number of cases and severity of disease associated with dengue infection in Sri Lanka has been increasing since 1989, when the first epidemic of dengue hemorrhagic fever was recorded. We identified a new dengue virus 1 strain circulating in Sri Lanka that coincided with the 2009 dengue epidemic.

The impact of COVID-19 lockdown on dengue transmission in Sri Lanka; A natural experiment for understanding the influence of human mobility.

BACKGROUND: Dengue is one of the major public health problems in Sri Lanka. Its outbreak pattern depends on a multitude of drivers, including human mobility. Here we evaluate the impact of COVID-19 related mobility restriction (lockdown) on the risk of dengue in Sri Lanka. METHODOLOGY: Two-stage hierarchical models were fitted using an interrupted time-series design based on the notified dengue cases, January 2015 to July 2020. In the first stage model, the district level impact was estimated using quasi-Poisson regression models while accounting for temporal trends. Estimates were pooled at zonal and national levels in the second stage model using meta-analysis. The influence of the extended period of school closure on dengue in children in the western province was compared to adults. FINDINGS: Statistically significant and homogeneous reduction of dengue risk was observed at all levels during the lockdown. Overall an 88% reduction in risk (RR 0.12; 95% CI from 0.08 to 0.17) was observed at the national level. The highest impact was observed among children aged less than 19 years showing a 92% reduction (RR 0.8; 95% CI from 0.03 to 0.25). We observed higher impact in the dry zone having 91% reduction (RR 0.09; 95% CI from 0.05 to 0.15) compared to wet zone showing 83% reduction (RR 0.17; 95% CI from 0.09 to 0.30). There was no indication that the overall health-seeking behaviour for dengue had a substantial influence on these estimates. SIGNIFICANCE: This study offers a broad understanding of the change in risk of dengue during the COVID-19 pandemic and associated mobility restrictions in Sri Lanka. The analysis using the mobility restrictions as a natural experiment suggests mobility patterns to be a very important driver of dengue transmission.

Changing epidemiology of dengue in Sri Lanka-Challenges for the future.

BACKGROUND: Dengue infections are on the rise in Sri Lanka and are spreading to all areas in the country. Here, we discuss the changes in dengue epidemiology in Sri Lanka in relation to changes in age distribution, changes in seroprevalence rates over time, and possible reasons contributing to such changes. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Although the incidence of dengue increased 20-fold from the year 2000 to 2012 and a further 3-fold from 2012 to 2019, this increase is not reflected in a similar increase in the age-stratified seropositivity rates for dengue. For instance, the annual seroconversion rates were 0.76% in 2013 and 0.91% in 2017. The annual seroconversion rates in the 6 to 17 age group were 1.5% per year in 2003, 3.9% in 2013, and 4.1% in 2017. In addition, although a 13-fold increase in dengue was seen in those who were <19 years of age, a 52.4-fold increase was seen in the 40- to 59-year age group. The case fatality rates (CFRs) have similarly changed, with 61.8% of deaths occurring in those <19 years of age in the year 2000, while in 2012 to 2018, the highest CFR were seen in those who were aged 20 to 39 years. Although there has been a marked increase in the number of cases, the vector densities did not change during a 4-year period. The proportion of adult individuals experiencing a secondary dengue infection has also remained between 65% and 75% between the years 2004 and 2018. CONCLUSIONS: A change in the ratio of symptomatic to asymptomatic infections can give rise to changes in the reported incidence of dengue. In order to take an appropriate policy decision in dengue control activities, it would be important to study the changes in virus serotypes, vector dispersion, and densities. Further, the contribution of the rise in metabolic diseases to an increase in the symptomatic as well as more severe infections due to dengue is explored.

The Burden of Acute Febrile Illness Attributable to Dengue Virus Infection in Sri Lanka: A Single-Center 2-Year Prospective Cohort Study (2016-2019).

We performed a 2-year prospective cohort study to determine the incidence of dengue in Angoda, Colombo district, Sri Lanka (NCT02570152). The primary objective was to determine the incidence of acute febrile illness (AFI) because of laboratory confirmed dengue (LCD). Secondary objectives were to determine AFI incidence because of non-LCD, describe AFI symptoms, and estimate AFI incidence because of LCD by dengue virus (DENV)-type and age group. Participants from households with at least one minor and one adult (≤50 years) were enrolled and followed with scheduled weekly visits and, in case of AFI, unscheduled visits. Blood was collected for DENV detection at AFI visits, and symptoms recorded during the 7-day period following AFI onset. A total of 2,004 participants were enrolled (971 children, and 1,033 adults). A total of 55 LCD episodes were detected (overall incidence of 14.2 per 1,000 person-years). Incidence was the highest among children < 5 years (21.3 per 1,000 person-years) and 5-11 years (22.7 per 1,000 person-years), compared with adults ≥ 18 years (9.2 per 1,000 person-years). LCD was mostly (83.6%) caused by DENV-2 (n = 46), followed by DENV-1 (n = 6) and DENV-3 (n = 3). Common symptoms of LCD were headache, fatigue, myalgia, loss of appetite, and arthralgia. Incidence of AFI because of non-LCD was 47.3 per 1,000 person-years. In conclusion, this study reports the LCD incidence for a DENV-2 dominated epidemic that is comparable to the incidence of suspected dengue reported passively for 2017, one of the worst outbreaks in recent history.

Household and Hospitalization Costs of Pediatric Dengue Illness in Colombo, Sri Lanka.

Dengue, a mosquito-borne viral infection that affects millions around the world, poses a substantial economic burden in endemic countries. We conducted a prospective costing study in hospitalized pediatric dengue patients at the Lady Ridgeway Hospital for Children (LRHC), a public pediatric hospital in Colombo district, Sri Lanka, to assess household out-of-pocket and hospitalization costs of dengue in pediatric patients during peak dengue transmission season. Between August and October 2013, we recruited 216 hospitalized patients (aged 0-3 years, 27%; 4-7 years, 29%; 8-12 years, 42%) who were clinically or laboratory diagnosed with dengue. Using 2013 US dollars, household out-of-pocket spending, on average, was US$59 (SD 49) per episode and increased with disease severity (DF, US$52; DHF/DSS, US$78). Pediatric dengue patients received free-of-charge medical care during hospitalization at LRHC, and this places a high financial burden on hospitals. The direct medical cost of hospitalization was US$68 (SD 31.4) for DF episode, and US$122.7 (SD 65.2) for DHF/DSS episode. Yet a hospitalized dengue illness episode still accounted for 20% to 35% of household monthly income due to direct and indirect costs. Additionally, a majority of caregivers (70%) sought outpatient care before hospitalization, most of whom (81%) visited private health facilities. Our findings indicate that hospitalized pediatric dengue illness poses a nontrivial cost burden to households and healthcare systems, emphasizing the importance of preventing and controlling the transmission of dengue in endemic countries.

Severe dengue epidemics in Sri Lanka, 2003-2006.

Recent emergence of dengue hemorrhagic fever in the Indian subcontinent has been well documented in Sri Lanka. We compare recent (2003-2006) and past (1980-1997) dengue surveillance data for Sri Lanka. The 4 dengue virus (DENV) serotypes have been cocirculating in Sri Lanka for >30 years. Over this period, a new genotype of DENV-1 has replaced an old genotype. Moreover, new clades of DENV-3 genotype III viruses have replaced older clades. Emergence of new clades of DENV-3 in 1989 and 2000 coincided with abrupt increases in the number of reported dengue cases, implicating this serotype in severe epidemics. In 1980-1997, most reported dengue cases were in children. Recent epidemics have been characterized by many cases in children and adults. Changes in local transmission dynamics and genetic changes in DENV-3 are likely increasing emergence of severe dengue epidemics in Sri Lanka.

Evaluation of intensified dengue control measures with interrupted time series analysis in the Panadura Medical Officer of Health division in Sri Lanka: a case study and cost-effectiveness analysis.

BACKGROUND: Dengue has become a major public health problem in Sri Lanka with a considerable economic burden. As a response, in June, 2014, the Ministry of Health initiated a proactive vector control programme in partnership with military and police forces, known as the Civil-Military Cooperation (CIMIC) programme, that was targeted at high-risk Medical Officer of Health (MOH) divisions in the country. Evaluating the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of population-level interventions is essential to guide public health planning and resource allocation decisions, particularly in resource-limited health-care settings. METHODS: Using an interrupted time series design with a non-linear extension, we evaluated the impact of vector control interventions from June 22, 2014, to Dec 29, 2016, in Panadura, a high-risk MOH division in Western Province, Sri Lanka. We used dengue notification and larval survey data to estimate the reduction in Breteau index and dengue incidence before and after the intervention using two separate models, adjusting for time-varying confounding variables (ie, rainfall, temperature, and the Oceanic Niño Index). We also assessed the cost and cost-effectiveness of the CIMIC programme from the perspective of the National Dengue Control Unit under the scenarios of different levels of hospitalisation of dengue cases (low [25%], medium [50%], and high [75%]) in terms of cost per disability-adjusted life-year averted (DALY). FINDINGS: Vector control interventions had a significant impact on combined Breteau index (relative risk reduction 0·43, 95% CI 0·26 to 0·70) and on dengue incidence (0·43, 0·28 to 0·67), the latter becoming prominent 2 months after the intervention onset. The mean number of averted dengue cases was estimated at 2192 (95% CI 1741 to 2643), and the total cost of the CIMIC programme at 2016 US$271 615. Personnel costs accounted for about 89% of the total cost. In the base-case scenario of moderate level of hospitalisation, the CIMIC programme was cost-saving with a probability of 70% under both the lowest ($453) and highest ($1686) cost-effectiveness thresholds, resulting in a net saving of $20 247 (95% CI -57 266 to 97 790) and averting 176 DALYs (133 to 226), leading to a cost of -$98 (-497 to 395) per DALY averted. This was also the case for the scenario with high hospitalisation levels (cost per DALY averted -$512, 95% CI -872 to -115) but with a higher probability of 99%. In the scenario with low hospitalisation levels (cost per DALY averted $690, 143 to 1379), although the CIMIC programme was cost-ineffective at the lowest threshold with a probability of 77%, it was cost-effective at the highest threshold with a probability of 99%. INTERPRETATION: This study suggests that communities affected by dengue can benefit from investments in vector control if interventions are implemented rigorously and coordinated well across sectors. By doing so, it is possible to reduce the disease and economic burden of dengue in endemic settings. FUNDING: None.

Dengue virus-elicited tryptase induces endothelial permeability and shock.

Dengue virus (DENV) infection causes a characteristic pathology in humans involving dysregulation of the vascular system. In some patients with dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF), vascular pathology can become severe, resulting in extensive microvascular permeability and plasma leakage into tissues and organs. Mast cells (MCs), which line blood vessels and regulate vascular function, are able to detect DENV in vivo and promote vascular leakage. Here, we identified that a MC-derived protease, tryptase, is consequential for promoting vascular permeability during DENV infection, through inducing breakdown of endothelial cell tight junctions. Injected tryptase alone was sufficient to induce plasma loss from the circulation and hypovolemic shock in animals. A potent tryptase inhibitor, nafamostat mesylate, blocked DENV-induced vascular leakage in vivo. Importantly, in two independent human dengue cohorts, tryptase levels correlated with the grade of DHF severity. This study defines an immune mechanism by which DENV can induce vascular pathology and shock.

Application of a targeted-enrichment methodology for full-genome sequencing of Dengue 1-4, Chikungunya and Zika viruses directly from patient samples.

The frequency of epidemics caused by Dengue viruses 1-4, Zika virus and Chikungunya viruses have been on an upward trend in recent years driven primarily by uncontrolled urbanization, mobility of human populations and geographical spread of their shared vectors, Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. Infections by these viruses present with similar clinical manifestations making them challenging to diagnose; this is especially difficult in regions of the world hyperendemic for these viruses. In this study, we present a targeted-enrichment methodology to simultaneously sequence the complete viral genomes for each of these viruses directly from clinical samples. Additionally, we have also developed a customized computational tool (BaitMaker) to design these enrichment baits. This methodology is robust in its ability to capture diverse sequences and is amenable to large-scale epidemiological studies. We have applied this methodology to two large cohorts: a febrile study based in Colombo, Sri Lanka taken during the 2009-2015 dengue epidemic (n = 170) and another taken during the 2016 outbreak of Zika virus in Singapore (n = 162). Results from these studies indicate that we were able to cover an average of 97.04% ± 0.67% of the full viral genome from samples in these cohorts. We also show detection of one DENV3/ZIKV co-infected patient where we recovered full genomes for both viruses.