Association between the cut-off value of the first trimester fasting plasma glucose level and gestational diabetes mellitus: a retrospective study from southern China.

PURPOSE: Our previous studies have suggested that the first trimester fasting plasma glucose (FPG) level is associated with gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) and is a predictor of GDM. The aim of the present study was to provide valuable insights into the accuracy of the first trimester FPG level in the screening and diagnosis of GDM in southern China. METHODS: This retrospective study included pregnant women who had their first trimester FPG level recorded at 9-13+6 weeks and underwent screening for GDM using the 2-h 75 g oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) between the 24th and 28th gestational weeks. Differences between the GDM and non-GDM groups were assessed by Student's t test and the chi-squared test according to the nature of the variables. A restricted cubic spine was used to explore the relationship between the first trimester FPG level and the odds ratio (OR) of GDM in pregnant women. Cut-off values of first trimester FPG were determined using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and the area under the curve (AUC), and 95% confidence intervals (CIs), the positive predictive value (PPV) and the negative predictive value (NPV) were calculated. RESULTS: The medical records of 28,030 pregnant women were analysed, and 4,669 (16.66%) of them were diagnosed with GDM. The average first trimester FPG level was 4.62 ± 0.37 mmol/L. The OR of GDM increased with increasing first trimester FPG levels and with a value of first trimester FPG of approximately 4.6 mmol/L, which was equal to 1 (Chi-Square = 665.79, P < 0.001), and then started to increase rapidly afterwards. The ROC curve for fasting plasma glucose in the first trimester (4.735 mmol/L) for predicting gestational diabetes mellitus in pregnant women was 0.608 (95% CI: 0.598-0.617), with a sensitivity of 0.490 and a specificity of 0.676. CONCLUSION: Based on the research, we recommend that all pregnant women undergo FPG testing in the first trimester, particularly at the first antenatal visit. Furthermore, we suggest that the risks of GDM should be given increased attention and management as soon as the first trimester FPG value is more than 4.7 mmol/L. First trimester FPG levels should be considered a screening marker when diagnosing GDM in pregnant women but this needs to be confirmed by more prospective studies. These factors may have a significant impact on the clinical treatment of pregnant women.

Fasting plasma glucose in the first trimester is related to gestational diabetes mellitus and adverse pregnancy outcomes.

PURPOSE: To investigate and identify first-trimester fasting plasma glucose (FPG) is related to gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) and other adverse pregnancy outcomes in Shenzhen population. METHODS: We used data of 48,444 pregnant women that had been retrospectively collected between 2017 and 2019. Logistic regression analysis was used to evaluated the associations between first-trimester FPG and GDM and adverse pregnancy outcomes, and used to construct a nomogram model for predicting the risk of GDM. The performance of the nomogram was evaluated by using ROC and calibration curves. Decision curve analysis (DCA) was used to determine the clinical usefulness of the first-trimester FPG by quantifying the net benefits at different threshold probabilities. RESULTS: The mean first-trimester FPG was 4.62 ± 0.42 mmol/L. A total of 6998 (14.4%) pregnancies developed GDM.489(1.01%) pregnancies developed polyhydramnios, the prevalence rates of gestational hypertensive disorder (GHD), cesarean section, primary cesarean section, preterm delivery before 37 weeks (PD) and dystocia was 1130 (2.33%), 20,426 (42.16%), 7237 (14.94%), 2386 (4.93%), and 1865 (3.85%), respectively. 4233 (8.74%) of the newborns were LGA, and the number of macrosomia was 2272 (4.69%), LBW was 1701 (3.51%) and 5084 (10.49%) newborns had admission to the ICU, which all showed significances between GDM and non-GDM groups (all P < 0.05). The univariate analysis showed that first-trimester FPG was strongly associated with risks of outcomes including GDM, cesarean section, macrosomia, GHD, primary cesarean section, and LGA (all OR > 1, all P < 0.05), furthermore, the risks of GDM, primary cesarean section, and LGA was increasing with first-trimester FPG as early as it was at 4.19-4.63 mmol/L. The multivariable analysis showed that the risks of GDM (ORs for FPG 4.19-4.63, 4.63-5.11 and 5.11-7.0 mmol/L were 1.137, 1.592, and 4.031, respectively, all P < 0.05) increased as early as first-trimester FPG was at 4.19-4.63 mmol/L, and first-trimester FPG which was also associated with the risks of cesarean section, macrosomia and LGA (OR for FPG 5.11-7.0 mmol/L of cesarean section: 1.128; OR for FPG 5.11-7.0 mmol/L of macrosomia: 1.561; OR for FPG 4.63-5.11 and 5.11-7.0 mmol/L of LGA: 1.149 and 1.426, respectively, all P < 0.05) and with its increasing, the risks of LGA increased. Furthermore, the nomogram had a C-indices 0.771(95% CI: 0.763~0.779) and 0.770(95% CI:0.758~0.781) in training and testing validation respectively, which showed an acceptable consistency between the observed, validation and nomogram-predicted probabilities, the DAC curve analysis indicated that the nomogram had important clinical application value for GDM risk prediction. CONCLUSIONS: FPG in the first trimester was an independent risk factor for GDM which can be used as a screening test for identifying pregnancies at risk of GDM and adverse pregnancy outcomes.