An Evidence-Based Algorithm for Early Prognosis of Severe Dengue in the Outpatient Setting.

Background: Early prediction of severe dengue could significantly assist patient triage and case management. Methods: We prospectively investigated 7563 children with ≤3 days of fever recruited in the outpatient departments of 6 hospitals in southern Vietnam between 2010 and 2013. The primary endpoint of interest was severe dengue (2009 World Health Organization Guidelines), and predefined risk variables were collected at the time of enrollment to enable prognostic model development. Results: The analysis population comprised 7544 patients, of whom 2060 (27.3%) had laboratory-confirmed dengue; nested among these were 117 (1.5%) severe cases. In the multivariate logistic model, a history of vomiting, lower platelet count, elevated aspartate aminotransferase (AST) level, positivity in the nonstructural protein 1 (NS1) rapid test, and viremia magnitude were all independently associated with severe dengue. The final prognostic model (Early Severe Dengue Identifier [ESDI]) included history of vomiting, platelet count, AST level. and NS1 rapid test status. Conclusions: The ESDI had acceptable performance features (area under the curve = 0.95, sensitivity 87% (95% confidence interval [CI], 80%-92%), specificity 88% (95% CI, 87%-89%), positive predictive value 10% (95% CI, 9%-12%), and negative predictive value of 99% (95% CI, 98%-100%) in the population of all 7563 enrolled children. A score chart, for routine clinical use, was derived from the prognostic model and could improve triage and management of children presenting with fever in dengue-endemic areas.

A randomised trial evaluating the safety and immunogenicity of the novel single oral dose typhoid vaccine M01ZH09 in healthy Vietnamese children.

BACKGROUND: The emergence of drug resistant typhoid fever is a major public health problem, especially in Asia. An oral single dose typhoid vaccine would have major advantages. M01ZH09 is a live oral single dose candidate typhoid vaccine containing Salmonella enterica serovar Typhi (Ty2 aroC(-)ssaV(-)) ZH9 with two independently attenuating deletions. Studies in healthy adults demonstrated immunogenicity and an acceptable safety profile. OBJECTIVES: We conducted a randomised placebo controlled, single-blind trial to evaluate the safety and immunogenicity of M01ZH09 in healthy Vietnamese children aged 5 to 14 years. METHODS: Subjects were randomly assigned to receive either a nominal dose of 5x10(9) CFU of M01ZH09 or placebo and were followed up for 28 days. The primary safety outcome was the proportion of subjects with any adverse event attributed to M01ZH09. The primary immunogenicity endpoint was the proportion of subjects who showed a positive immune response to M01ZH09 in the Salmonella Typhi lipopolysaccharide (LPS) specific serum IgA and IgG ELISA. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: One hundred and fifty-one children were enrolled, 101 subjects received M01ZH09 and 50 subjects received placebo. An intention to treat analysis was conducted. There were no serious adverse events and no bacteraemias. In the M01ZH09 group, 26 (26%; 95% CI, 18-5%) of 101 subjects experienced adverse events compared to 11 (22%; 95% CI, 12-36%) of 50 subjects in the placebo group (odds ratio (OR) [95%CI] = 1.23 [0.550-2.747]; p = 0.691). Faecal shedding of S. Typhi (Ty2 aroC(-)ssaV(-)) ZH9 was detected in 51 (51%; 95% CI, 41-61%) of 100 M01ZH09 subjects. No shedding was detected beyond day 3. A positive immune response, defined as 70% increase (1.7 fold change) in LPS specific serum IgG (day 14 or 28) and/or 50% increase (1.5 fold change) in LPS specific serum IgA (day 7 or 14) from baseline was detected in 98 (97%; 95% CI, 92-99%) of 101 M01ZH09 recipients and 8 (16%; 95% CI, 7-29%) of 50 placebo recipients. Twenty-eight (100%; 95% CI, 88-100%) of 28 vaccine recipients who were evaluated in the LPS specific IgA ELISPOT assay showed a positive response compared to none of the 14 placebo recipients tested. CONCLUSIONS: This was the first phase II trial of a novel oral candidate typhoid vaccine in children in an endemic country. M01ZH09 had an appropriate safety profile and was immunogenic in children. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Controlled-trials.com ISRCTN91111837.