A prognostic model for short term adverse events in normotensive patients with pulmonary embolism.

Risk stratification of patients with PE has gained interest in terms of the identification of patients in whom treatment on an outpatient base can be considered. Previous studies are of limited value due to their focus on adverse clinical events within several months after diagnosis of PE. We developed a prognostic model, based on easily accessible, clinical, and laboratory parameters, to predict adverse events during the first 10 days after the diagnosis of acute PE. We have analyzed the data of 210 outpatients with confirmed PE. Collected data included medical history, pulse rate, blood pressure, NT-proBNP, and D-dimer concentrations. The primary outcome was the occurrence of adverse clinical events in a 10 day follow-up period. Our final prognostic model to predict short-term adverse events consists of NT-proBNP levels, D-dimer concentrations, pulse rate, and the occurrence of active malignancy; the total score ranges from 0 to 37 points. Patients with a low score (no active malignancy, pulse rate <90 bpm, NT-proBNP <500 pg/ml, and D-dimer <3,000 µg/l FEU) have a 10-day adverse event risk <1.5%. This risk increases to over 30% in patients with a maximum score, based on high pulse rate, D-dimer concentrations, and NT-proBNP levels. Our prognostic model, once prospectively validated in an independent sample of patients, can be used in the early risk stratification of PE to estimate the risk of adverse events and to differentiate between candidates for in- or out- hospital treatment.

Risk stratification of patients with pulmonary embolism based on pulse rate and D-dimer concentration.

To enable outpatient treatment of a selected group of patients with pulmonary embolism (PE), insight in the determinants of adverse clinical outcome is warranted. We have identified risk factors for serious adverse events (SAE) within the first 10 days of acute PE. We have retrospectively analysed data of 440 consecutive patients with acute PE. Collected data included age, gender, medical history, blood pressure, pulse rate and D-dimer concentration. The variables associated with SAE in the first 10 days in univariate analysis (p<0.15) have been included in a multivariate logistic regression model (backward conditional, p out >0.10). In 440 patients with acute PE, 20 SAEs occurred in a 10-day follow-up period. Pulse rate > or = 100 beats per minute (bpm) (OR, 6.85; 95%CI 1.43-32.81) and D-dimer concentration > or = 3,000 microg/ml (OR, 5.51; 95%CI 0.68-44.64) were significantly related to the SAEs. All SAEs were predicted by a pulse rate > or = 100 bpm and/or a D-dimer concentration > or = 3,000 microg/ml. Older age, gender, history of venous thromboembolism (VTE), heart failure, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, cancer or a systolic blood pressure < 90 mm Hg had no significant influence on short term SAEs. Pulse rate and D-dimer concentration can be used to identify patients with acute PE, who are at risk for adverse clinical outcome during the first 10 days of hospitalisation. Outpatient treatment of PE-patients with a pulse rate > or = 100 bpm and/or a D-dimer concentration > or = 3,000 microg/ml has to be discouraged.