RESUMO
New-onset psychiatric disorders are frequent after COVID-19. We aim to determine whether acute COVID-19 severity markers can predict post-COVID new-onset psychiatric disorders. We conducted an electronic health records (EHR) cohort study of patients hospitalized for COVID-19 and without any known history of psychiatric disorders. Patients were included between January 2020 and September 2022 in one of the 36 university hospitals of the Assistance Publique - Hôpitaux de Paris. Acute COVID-19 clinical and biological severity markers were recorded during hospitalization for COVID-19. Psychiatric ICD-10 diagnoses were recorded up to 2 years and 9 months after hospitalization for COVID-19. Predictors of post-COVID new-onset psychiatric disorders were identified based on Cox regression models and sensitivity analyses. Predictive scores were built and tested in age- and sex-stratified populations. A total 34,489 patients hospitalized for COVID-19 were included; 3717 patients (10.8%) had at least one post-COVID new-onset psychiatric disorder. Hospital stay >7 days (HR = 1.72, 95%CI [1.59-1.86], p < 0.001), acute delirium (HR = 1.49, 95%CI [1.28-1.74], p < 0.001), elevated monocyte count (HR = 1.14, 95%CI [1.06-1.23], p < 0.001) and elevated plasma CRP (HR = 0.92, 95%CI [0.86-0.99], p = 0.04) independently predicted post-COVID new-onset psychiatric disorders. Sensitivity analyses confirmed hospital stay >7 days, acute delirium, and elevated monocyte count as predictors. Predictive scores based on these variables had good 12-month positive predictive values, up to 7.5 times more accurate than random in women < 65 years. In conclusion, hospital stay >7 days, acute delirium, and elevated monocyte count during acute COVID-19 predict post-COVID new-onset psychiatric disorders.