Mapping indoor radon-222 in Denmark: design and test of the statistical model used in the second nationwide survey.

In Denmark, a new survey of indoor radon-222 has been carried out, 1-year alpha track measurements (CR-39) have been made in 3019 single-family houses. There are from 3 to 23 house measurements in each of the 275 municipalities. Within each municipality, houses have been selected randomly. One important outcome of the survey is the prediction of the fraction of houses in each municipality with an annual average radon concentration above 200 Bq m(-3). To obtain the most accurate estimate and to assess the associated uncertainties, a statistical model has been developed. The purpose of this paper is to describe the design of this model, and to report results of model tests. The model is based on a transformation of the data to normality and on analytical (conditionally) unbiased estimators of the quantities of interest. Bayesian statistics are used to minimize the effect of small sample size. In each municipality, the correction is dependent on the fraction of area where sand and gravel is a dominating surface geology. The uncertainty analysis is done with a Monte-Carlo technique. It is demonstrated that the weighted sum of all municipality model estimates of fractions above 200 Bq m(-3) (3.9% with 95%-confidence interval = [3.4,4.5]) is consistent with the weighted sum of the observations for Denmark taken as a whole (4.6% with 95%-confidence interval = [3.8,5.6]). The total number of single-family houses within each municipality is used as weight. Model estimates are also found to be consistent with observations at the level of individual counties. These typically include a few hundred house measurements. These tests indicate that the model is well suited for its purpose.

Cancer and ionizing radiation.

The carcinogenic effects of ionizing radiation are well documented at high doses and high dose rates. The Danish population has always been exposed to ionizing radiation from natural sources. In this century exposures from man-made sources especially in the medical field have added to the overall exposure of the population. Excluding medical exposures and exposures in the working environment the exposures of an individual member of the Danish population are essentially coming from natural sources especially from radon in dwellings. On average these sources give an annual effective dose equivalent of 3 mSv. A risk assessment using the latest information on the carcinogenic effects of ionizing radiation indicate that these radiation sources could give rise to 300 lung cancer deaths (radon) and 250 fatal cancers (other sources) each year in Denmark.

Avoidable cancers in the Nordic countries. Radiation.

Exposure to solar and ionizing radiation increases the risk for cancer in humans. Some 5% of solar radiation is within the ultraviolet spectrum and may cause both malignant melanoma and non-melanocytic skin cancer; the latter is regarded as a benign disease and is accordingly not included in our estimation of avoidable cancers. Under the assumption that the rate of occurrence of malignant melanoma of the buttocks of both men and women and of the scalp of women would apply to all parts of the body in people completely unexposed to solar radiation, it was estimated that approximately 95% of all malignant melanomas arising in the Nordic populations around the year 2000 will be due to exposure to natural ultraviolet radiation, equivalent to an annual number of about 4700 cases, with 2100 in men and 2600 in women, or some 4% of all cancers notified. Exposure to ionizing radiation in the Nordic countries occurs at an average effective dose per capita per year of about 3 mSv (Iceland, 1.1 mSv) from natural sources, and about 1 mSv from man-made sources. While the natural sources are primarily radon in indoor air, natural radionuclides in food, cosmic radiation and gamma radiation from soil and building materials, the man-made sources are dominated by the diagnostic and therapeutic use of ionizing radiation. On the basis of measured levels of radon in Nordic dwellings and associated risk estimates for lung cancer derived from well-conducted epidemiological studies, we estimated that about 180 cases of lung cancer (1% of all lung cancer cases) per year could be avoided in the Nordic countries around the year 2000 if indoor exposure to radon were eliminated, and that an additional 720 cases (6%) could be avoided annually if either radon or tobacco smoking were eliminated. Similarly, it was estimated that the exposure of the Nordic populations to natural sources of ionizing radiation other than radon and to medical sources will each give rise to an annual total of 2120 cancers at various sites. For all types of ionizing radiation, the annual total will be 4420 cancer cases, or 3.9% of all cancers arising in the Nordic populations, with 3.4% in men and 4.4% in women.