Validation of the BOADICEA model in a prospective cohort of BRCA1/2 pathogenic variant carriers.

BACKGROUND: No validation has been conducted for the BOADICEA multifactorial breast cancer risk prediction model specifically in BRCA1/2 pathogenic variant (PV) carriers to date. Here, we evaluated the performance of BOADICEA in predicting 5-year breast cancer risks in a prospective cohort of BRCA1/2 PV carriers ascertained through clinical genetic centres. METHODS: We evaluated the model calibration and discriminatory ability in the prospective TRANsIBCCS cohort study comprising 1614 BRCA1 and 1365 BRCA2 PV carriers (209 incident cases). Study participants had lifestyle, reproductive, hormonal, anthropometric risk factor information, a polygenic risk score based on 313 SNPs and family history information. RESULTS: The full multifactorial model considering family history together with all other risk factors was well calibrated overall (E/O=1.07, 95% CI: 0.92 to 1.24) and in quintiles of predicted risk. Discrimination was maximised when all risk factors were considered (Harrell's C-index=0.70, 95% CI: 0.67 to 0.74; area under the curve=0.79, 95% CI: 0.76 to 0.82). The model performance was similar when evaluated separately in BRCA1 or BRCA2 PV carriers. The full model identified 5.8%, 12.9% and 24.0% of BRCA1/2 PV carriers with 5-year breast cancer risks of <1.65%, <3% and <5%, respectively, risk thresholds commonly used for different management and risk-reduction options. CONCLUSION: BOADICEA may be used to aid personalised cancer risk management and decision-making for BRCA1 and BRCA2 PV carriers. It is implemented in the free-access CanRisk tool (https://www.canrisk.org/).

Prophylactic pectoralis major flap to compensate for increased risk of pharyngocutaneous fistula in laryngectomy patients with low skeletal muscle mass (PECTORALIS): study protocol for a randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Total laryngectomy (TL) is a surgical procedure commonly performed on patients with advanced laryngeal or hypopharyngeal carcinoma. One of the most common postoperative complications following TL is the development of a pharyngocutaneous fistula (PCF), characterized by a communication between the neopharynx and the skin. PCF can lead to extended hospital stays, delayed oral feeding, and compromised quality of life. The use of a myofascial pectoralis major flap (PMMF) as an onlay technique during pharyngeal closure has shown potential in reducing PCF rates in high risk patients for development of PCF such as patients undergoing TL after chemoradiation and low skeletal muscle mass (SMM). Its impact on various functional outcomes, such as shoulder and neck function, swallowing function, and voice quality, remains less explored. This study aims to investigate the effectiveness of PMMF in reducing PCF rates in patients with low SMM and its potential consequences on patient well-being. METHODS: This multicenter study adopts a randomized clinical trial (RCT) design and is funded by the Dutch Cancer Society. Eligible patients for TL, aged ≥ 18 years, mentally competent, and proficient in Dutch, will be enrolled. One hundred and twenty eight patients with low SMM will be centrally randomized to receive TL with or without PMMF, while those without low SMM will undergo standard TL. Primary outcome measurement involves assessing PCF rates within 30 days post-TL. Secondary objectives include evaluating quality of life, shoulder and neck function, swallowing function, and voice quality using standardized questionnaires and functional tests. Data will be collected through electronic patient records. DISCUSSION: This study's significance lies in its exploration of the potential benefits of using PMMF as an onlay technique during pharyngeal closure to reduce PCF rates in TL patients with low SMM. By assessing various functional outcomes, the study aims to provide a comprehensive understanding of the impact of PMMF deployment. The anticipated results will contribute valuable insights into optimizing surgical techniques to enhance patient outcomes and inform future treatment strategies for TL patients. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NL8605, registered on 11-05-2020; International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (ICTRP).

Re-attendance in supplemental breast MRI screening rounds of the DENSE trial for women with extremely dense breasts.

OBJECTIVES: Supplemental MRI screening improves early breast cancer detection and reduces interval cancers in women with extremely dense breasts in a cost-effective way. Recently, the European Society of Breast Imaging recommended offering MRI screening to women with extremely dense breasts, but the debate on whether to implement it in breast cancer screening programs is ongoing. Insight into the participant experience and willingness to re-attend is important for this discussion. METHODS: We calculated the re-attendance rates of the second and third MRI screening rounds of the DENSE trial. Moreover, we calculated age-adjusted odds ratios (ORs) to study the association between characteristics and re-attendance. Women who discontinued MRI screening were asked to provide one or more reasons for this. RESULTS: The re-attendance rates were 81.3% (3458/4252) and 85.2% (2693/3160) in the second and third MRI screening round, respectively. A high age (> 65 years), a very low BMI, lower education, not being employed, smoking, and no alcohol consumption were correlated with lower re-attendance rates. Moderate or high levels of pain, discomfort, or anxiety experienced during the previous MRI screening round were correlated with lower re-attendance rates. Finally, a plurality of women mentioned an examination-related inconvenience as a reason to discontinue screening (39.1% and 34.8% in the second and third screening round, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: The willingness of women with dense breasts to re-attend an ongoing MRI screening study is high. However, emphasis should be placed on improving the MRI experience to increase the re-attendance rate if widespread supplemental MRI screening is implemented. CLINICAL RELEVANCE STATEMENT: For many women, MRI is an acceptable screening method, as re-attendance rates were high - even for screening in a clinical trial setting. To further enhance the (re-)attendance rate, one possible approach could be improving the overall MRI experience. KEY POINTS: • The willingness to re-attend in an ongoing MRI screening study is high. • Pain, discomfort, and anxiety in the previous MRI screening round were related to lower re-attendance rates. • Emphasis should be placed on improving MRI experience to increase the re-attendance rate in supplemental MRI screening.

Assessing Quantitative Parenchymal Features at Baseline Dynamic Contrast-enhanced MRI and Cancer Occurrence in Women with Extremely Dense Breasts.

Background Automated identification of quantitative breast parenchymal enhancement features on dynamic contrast-enhanced (DCE) MRI scans could provide added value in assessment of breast cancer risk in women with extremely dense breasts. Purpose To automatically identify quantitative properties of the breast parenchyma on baseline DCE MRI scans and assess their association with breast cancer occurrence in women with extremely dense breasts. Materials and Methods This study represents a secondary analysis of the Dense Tissue and Early Breast Neoplasm Screening trial. MRI was performed in eight hospitals between December 2011 and January 2016. After segmentation of fibroglandular tissue, quantitative features (including volumetric density, volumetric morphology, and enhancement characteristics) of the parenchyma were extracted from baseline MRI scans. Principal component analysis was used to identify parenchymal measures with the greatest variance. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression was applied to assess the association between breast cancer occurrence and quantitative parenchymal features, followed by stratification of significant features into tertiles. Results A total of 4553 women (mean age, 55.7 years ± 6 [SD]) with extremely dense breasts were included; of these women, 122 (3%) were diagnosed with breast cancer. Five principal components representing 96% of the variance were identified, and the component explaining the greatest independent variance (42%) consisted of MRI features relating to volume of enhancing parenchyma. Multivariable analysis showed that volume of enhancing parenchyma was associated with breast cancer occurrence (hazard ratio [HR], 1.09; 95% CI: 1.01, 1.18; P = .02). Additionally, women in the high tertile of volume of enhancing parenchyma showed a breast cancer occurrence twice that of women in the low tertile (HR, 2.09; 95% CI: 1.25, 3.61; P = .005). Conclusion In women with extremely dense breasts, a high volume of enhancing parenchyma on baseline DCE MRI scans was associated with increased occurrence of breast cancer as compared with a low volume of enhancing parenchyma. © RSNA, 2023 Supplemental material is available for this article. See also the editorial by Grimm in this issue.

Challenges and Changes of the Breast Cancer Screening Paradigm.

Since four decades mammography is used for early breast cancer detection in asymptomatic women and still remains the gold standard imaging modality. However, population screening programs can be personalized and women can be divided into different groups based on risk factors and personal preferences. The availability of new and evolving imaging modalities, for example, digital breast tomosynthesis, dynamic-contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), abbreviated MRI protocols, diffusion-weighted MRI, and contrast-enhanced mammography leads to new challenges and perspectives regarding the feasibility and potential harms of breast cancer screening. The aim of this review is to discuss the current guidelines for different risk groups, to analyze the recent published studies about the diagnostic performance of the imaging modalities and to discuss new developments and future perspectives. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: 1 TECHNICAL EFFICACY: Stage 6.

Melanomas in children and adolescents: Clinicopathologic features and survival outcomes.

BACKGROUND: Melanomas in the first 2 decades of life are uncommon and poorly understood. OBJECTIVE: To assess clinicopathologic features and survival of children (≤11 years) and adolescents (12-19 years) diagnosed with melanoma. METHODS: A pooled cohort of 514 patients was analyzed (397 Dutch, 117 Australian; 62 children, 452 adolescents). Pathology reports were reevaluated to determine melanoma subtypes. Multivariable Cox models were generated for recurrence-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS). RESULTS: Melanoma subtypes were conventional melanoma (superficial spreading, nodular, desmoplastic, and acral lentiginous), spitzoid melanoma, and melanoma associated with a congenital nevus in 428, 78, and 8 patients, respectively. Ten-year RFS was 91.5% (95% confidence interval [CI], 82.4%-100%) in children and 86.4% (95% CI, 82.7%-90.3%) in adolescents (P = .32). Ten-year OS was 100% in children and 92.7% (95% CI, 89.8%-95.8%) in adolescents (P = .09). On multivariable analysis possible only for the adolescent cohort due to the small number of children, ulceration status, and anatomic site were associated with RFS and OS, whereas age, sex, mitotic index, sentinel node status and melanoma subtype were not. Breslow thickness >4 mm was associated with worse RFS. LIMITATIONS: Retrospective study. CONCLUSIONS: Survival rates for children and adolescents with melanomas were high. Ulceration, head or neck location and Breslow thickness >4 mm predicted worse survival in adolescents.

Development and validation of risk calculators for people with "thin" melanomas on their skin to predict the likelihood that their cancer will return: a plain language summary of publication.

WHAT IS THIS SUMMARY ABOUT?: This is a summary of an article describing the development of risk calculators for use in people who develop a type of melanoma on their skin called "thin" melanoma to predict the likelihood that their cancer will return. The article was originally published in the Journal of Clinical Oncology in 2021. HOW WERE THE CALCULATORS DEVELOPED?: Calculations were performed to predict the chance of people with thin melanomas surviving without their melanoma recurring. Three graphical prediction calculators (called nomograms) were developed, along with easy-to-use online calculators using the same underlying calculation methods. The model was developed using data for 25,930 Dutch people diagnosed with thin melanomas (called the "development set"). To test its ability to predict melanoma recurrence, it was then compared with data for 2,968 Australian people with melanoma (the "validation set"). The calculators developed in the Dutch patients were found to accurately predict the risk of melanoma recurring for people with melanoma in the Australian "validation" group. WHAT DO THE RESULTS MEAN?: The calculators provide estimates of the risk of the melanoma returning for people with thin melanomas. The easy-to-use online calculators are freely available on a smartphone, tablet or computer, and will assist in providing accurate estimates of recurrence risks for individuals with thin melanomas, allowing more intensive follow-up of those whose predicted risk of their melanoma returning is high.

The association of age at menarche and adult height with mammographic density in the International Consortium of Mammographic Density.

BACKGROUND: Early age at menarche and tall stature are associated with increased breast cancer risk. We examined whether these associations were also positively associated with mammographic density, a strong marker of breast cancer risk. METHODS: Participants were 10,681 breast-cancer-free women from 22 countries in the International Consortium of Mammographic Density, each with centrally assessed mammographic density and a common set of epidemiologic data. Study periods for the 27 studies ranged from 1987 to 2014. Multi-level linear regression models estimated changes in square-root per cent density (√PD) and dense area (√DA) associated with age at menarche and adult height in pooled analyses and population-specific meta-analyses. Models were adjusted for age at mammogram, body mass index, menopausal status, hormone therapy use, mammography view and type, mammographic density assessor, parity and height/age at menarche. RESULTS: In pooled analyses, later age at menarche was associated with higher per cent density (ß√PD = 0.023 SE = 0.008, P = 0.003) and larger dense area (ß√DA = 0.032 SE = 0.010, P = 0.002). Taller women had larger dense area (ß√DA = 0.069 SE = 0.028, P = 0.012) and higher per cent density (ß√PD = 0.044, SE = 0.023, P = 0.054), although the observed effect on per cent density depended upon the adjustment used for body size. Similar overall effect estimates were observed in meta-analyses across population groups. CONCLUSIONS: In one of the largest international studies to date, later age at menarche was positively associated with mammographic density. This is in contrast to its association with breast cancer risk, providing little evidence of mediation. Increased height was also positively associated with mammographic density, particularly dense area. These results suggest a complex relationship between growth and development, mammographic density and breast cancer risk. Future studies should evaluate the potential mediation of the breast cancer effects of taller stature through absolute breast density.

Supplemental MRI Screening for Women with Extremely Dense Breast Tissue.

BACKGROUND: Extremely dense breast tissue is a risk factor for breast cancer and limits the detection of cancer with mammography. Data are needed on the use of supplemental magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) to improve early detection and reduce interval breast cancers in such patients. METHODS: In this multicenter, randomized, controlled trial in the Netherlands, we assigned 40,373 women between the ages of 50 and 75 years with extremely dense breast tissue and normal results on screening mammography to a group that was invited to undergo supplemental MRI or to a group that received mammography screening only. The groups were assigned in a 1:4 ratio, with 8061 in the MRI-invitation group and 32,312 in the mammography-only group. The primary outcome was the between-group difference in the incidence of interval cancers during a 2-year screening period. RESULTS: The interval-cancer rate was 2.5 per 1000 screenings in the MRI-invitation group and 5.0 per 1000 screenings in the mammography-only group, for a difference of 2.5 per 1000 screenings (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.0 to 3.7; P<0.001). Of the women who were invited to undergo MRI, 59% accepted the invitation. Of the 20 interval cancers that were diagnosed in the MRI-invitation group, 4 were diagnosed in the women who actually underwent MRI (0.8 per 1000 screenings) and 16 in those who did not accept the invitation (4.9 per 1000 screenings). The MRI cancer-detection rate among the women who actually underwent MRI screening was 16.5 per 1000 screenings (95% CI, 13.3 to 20.5). The positive predictive value was 17.4% (95% CI, 14.2 to 21.2) for recall for additional testing and 26.3% (95% CI, 21.7 to 31.6) for biopsy. The false positive rate was 79.8 per 1000 screenings. Among the women who underwent MRI, 0.1% had either an adverse event or a serious adverse event during or immediately after the screening. CONCLUSIONS: The use of supplemental MRI screening in women with extremely dense breast tissue and normal results on mammography resulted in the diagnosis of significantly fewer interval cancers than mammography alone during a 2-year screening period. (Funded by the University Medical Center Utrecht and others; DENSE ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01315015.).

Interval Cancer Detection Using a Neural Network and Breast Density in Women with Negative Screening Mammograms.

Background Inclusion of mammographic breast density (BD) in breast cancer risk models improves accuracy, but accuracy remains modest. Interval cancer (IC) risk prediction may be improved by combining assessments of BD and an artificial intelligence (AI) cancer detection system. Purpose To evaluate the performance of a neural network (NN)-based model that combines the assessments of BD and an AI system in the prediction of risk of developing IC among women with negative screening mammography results. Materials and Methods This retrospective nested case-control study performed with screening examinations included women who developed IC and women with normal follow-up findings (from January 2011 to January 2015). An AI cancer detection system analyzed all studies yielding a score of 1-10, representing increasing likelihood of malignancy. BD was automatically computed using publicly available software. An NN model was trained by combining the AI score and BD using 10-fold cross-validation. Bootstrap analysis was used to calculate the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), sensitivity at 90% specificity, and 95% CIs of the AI, BD, and NN models. Results A total of 2222 women with IC and 4661 women in the control group were included (mean age, 61 years; age range, 49-76 years). AUC of the NN model was 0.79 (95% CI: 0.77,0.81), which was higher than AUC of the AI cancer detection system or BD alone (AUC, 0.73 [95% CI: 0.71, 0.76] and 0.69 [95% CI: 0.67, 0.71], respectively; P < .001 for both). At 90% specificity, the NN model had a sensitivity of 50.9% (339 of 666 women; 95% CI: 45.2, 56.3) for prediction of IC, which was higher than that of the AI system (37.5%; 250 of 666 women; 95% CI: 33.0, 43.7; P < .001) or BD percentage alone (22.4%; 149 of 666 women; 95% CI: 17.9, 28.5; P < .001). Conclusion The combined assessment of an artificial intelligence detection system and breast density measurements enabled identification of a larger proportion of women who would develop interval cancer compared with either method alone. Published under a CC BY 4.0 license.

Deep Learning for Automated Triaging of 4581 Breast MRI Examinations from the DENSE Trial.

Background Supplemental screening with MRI has proved beneficial in women with extremely dense breasts. Most MRI examinations show normal anatomic and physiologic variation that may not require radiologic review. Thus, ways to triage these normal MRI examinations to reduce radiologist workload are needed. Purpose To determine the feasibility of an automated triaging method using deep learning (DL) to dismiss the highest number of MRI examinations without lesions while still identifying malignant disease. Materials and Methods This secondary analysis of data from the Dense Tissue and Early Breast Neoplasm Screening, or DENSE, trial evaluated breast MRI examinations from the first screening round performed in eight hospitals between December 2011 and January 2016. A DL model was developed to differentiate between breasts with lesions and breasts without lesions. The model was trained to dismiss breasts with normal phenotypical variation and to triage lesions (Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System [BI-RADS] categories 2-5) using eightfold internal-external validation. The model was trained on data from seven hospitals and tested on data from the eighth hospital, alternating such that each hospital was used once as an external test set. Performance was assessed using receiver operating characteristic analysis. At 100% sensitivity for malignant disease, the fraction of examinations dismissed from radiologic review was estimated. Results A total of 4581 MRI examinations of extremely dense breasts from 4581women (mean age, 54.3 years; interquartile range, 51.5-59.8 years) were included. Of the 9162 breasts, 838 had at least one lesion (BI-RADS category 2-5, of which 77 were malignant) and 8324 had no lesions. At 100% sensitivity for malignant lesions, the DL model considered 90.7% (95% CI: 86.7, 94.7) of the MRI examinations with lesions to be nonnormal and triaged them to radiologic review. The DL model dismissed 39.7% (95% CI: 30.0, 49.4) of the MRI examinations without lesions. The DL model had an average area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.83 (95% CI: 0.80, 0.85) in the differentiation between normal breast MRI examinations and MRI examinations with lesions. Conclusion Automated analysis of breast MRI examinations in women with dense breasts dismissed nearly 40% of MRI scans without lesions while not missing any cancers. ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT01315015 © RSNA, 2021 Online supplemental material is available for this article. See also the editorial by Joe in this issue.

Genome-wide association study meta-analysis identifies three novel loci for circulating anti-Müllerian hormone levels in women.

STUDY QUESTION: Can additional genetic variants for circulating anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH) levels be identified through a genome-wide association study (GWAS) meta-analysis including a large sample of premenopausal women? SUMMARY ANSWER: We identified four loci associated with AMH levels at P < 5 × 10-8: the previously reported MCM8 locus and three novel signals in or near AMH, TEX41 and CDCA7. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: AMH is expressed by antral stage ovarian follicles in women, and variation in age-specific circulating AMH levels has been associated with disease outcomes. However, the physiological mechanisms underlying these AMH-disease associations are largely unknown. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: We performed a GWAS meta-analysis in which we combined summary statistics of a previous AMH GWAS with GWAS data from 3705 additional women from three different cohorts. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: In total, we included data from 7049 premenopausal female participants of European ancestry. The median age of study participants ranged from 15.3 to 48 years across cohorts. Circulating AMH levels were measured in either serum or plasma samples using different ELISA assays. Study-specific analyses were adjusted for age at blood collection and population stratification, and summary statistics were meta-analysed using a standard error-weighted approach. Subsequently, we functionally annotated GWAS variants that reached genome-wide significance (P < 5 × 10-8). We also performed a gene-based GWAS, pathway analysis and linkage disequilibrium score regression and Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: We identified four loci associated with AMH levels at P < 5 × 10-8: the previously reported MCM8 locus and three novel signals in or near AMH, TEX41 and CDCA7. The strongest signal was a missense variant in the AMH gene (rs10417628). Most prioritized genes at the other three identified loci were involved in cell cycle regulation. Genetic correlation analyses indicated a strong positive correlation among single nucleotide polymorphisms for AMH levels and for age at menopause (rg = 0.82, FDR = 0.003). Exploratory two-sample MR analyses did not support causal effects of AMH on breast cancer or polycystic ovary syndrome risk, but should be interpreted with caution as they may be underpowered and the validity of genetic instruments could not be extensively explored. LARGE SCALE DATA: The full AMH GWAS summary statistics will made available after publication through the GWAS catalog (https://www.ebi.ac.uk/gwas/). LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: Whilst this study doubled the sample size of the most recent GWAS, the statistical power is still relatively low. As a result, we may still lack power to identify more genetic variants for AMH and to determine causal effects of AMH on, for example, breast cancer. Also, follow-up studies are needed to investigate whether the signal for the AMH gene is caused by reduced AMH detection by certain assays instead of actual lower circulating AMH levels. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: Genes mapped to the MCM8, TEX41 and CDCA7 loci are involved in the cell cycle and processes such as DNA replication and apoptosis. The mechanism underlying their associations with AMH may affect the size of the ovarian follicle pool. Altogether, our results provide more insight into the biology of AMH and, accordingly, the biological processes involved in ovarian ageing. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S): Nurses' Health Study and Nurses' Health Study II were supported by research grants from the National Institutes of Health (CA172726, CA186107, CA50385, CA87969, CA49449, CA67262, CA178949). The UK Medical Research Council and Wellcome (217065/Z/19/Z) and the University of Bristol provide core support for ALSPAC. This publication is the work of the listed authors, who will serve as guarantors for the contents of this article. A comprehensive list of grants funding is available on the ALSPAC website (http://www.bristol.ac.uk/alspac/external/documents/grant-acknowledgements.pdf). Funding for the collection of genotype and phenotype data used here was provided by the British Heart Foundation (SP/07/008/24066), Wellcome (WT092830M and WT08806) and UK Medical Research Council (G1001357). M.C.B., A.L.G.S. and D.A.L. work in a unit that is funded by the University of Bristol and UK Medical Research Council (MC_UU_00011/6). M.C.B.'s contribution to this work was funded by a UK Medical Research Council Skills Development Fellowship (MR/P014054/1) and D.A.L. is a National Institute of Health Research Senior Investigator (NF-0616-10102). A.L.G.S. was supported by the study of Dynamic longitudinal exposome trajectories in cardiovascular and metabolic non-communicable diseases (H2020-SC1-2019-Single-Stage-RTD, project ID 874739). The Doetinchem Cohort Study was financially supported by the Ministry of Health, Welfare and Sports of the Netherlands. The funder had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish or preparation of the manuscript. Ansh Labs performed the AMH measurements for the Doetinchem Cohort Study free of charge. Ansh Labs was not involved in the data analysis, interpretation or reporting, nor was it financially involved in any aspect of the study. R.M.G.V. was funded by the Honours Track of MSc Epidemiology, University Medical Center Utrecht with a grant from the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO) (022.005.021). The Study of Women's Health Across the Nation (SWAN) has grant support from the National Institutes of Health (NIH), DHHS, through the National Institute on Aging (NIA), the National Institute of Nursing Research (NINR) and the NIH Office of Research on Women's Health (ORWH) (U01NR004061; U01AG012505, U01AG012535, U01AG012531, U01AG012539, U01AG012546, U01AG012553, U01AG012554, U01AG012495). The SWAN Genomic Analyses and SWAN Legacy have grant support from the NIA (U01AG017719). The Generations Study was funded by Breast Cancer Now and the Institute of Cancer Research (ICR). The ICR acknowledges NHS funding to the NIHR Biomedical Research Centre. The content of this manuscript is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent official views of the funders. The Sister Study was funded by the Intramural Research Program of the National Institutes of Health (NIH), National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences (Z01-ES044005 to D.P.S.); the AMH assays were supported by the Avon Foundation (02-2012-065 to H.B. Nichols and D.P.S.). The breast cancer genome-wide association analyses were supported by the Government of Canada through Genome Canada and the Canadian Institutes of Health Research, the 'Ministère de l'Économie, de la Science et de l'Innovation du Québec' through Genome Québec and grant PSR-SIIRI-701, The National Institutes of Health (U19 CA148065, X01HG007492), Cancer Research UK (C1287/A10118, C1287/A16563, C1287/A10710) and The European Union (HEALTH-F2-2009-223175 and H2020 633784 and 634935). All studies and funders are listed in Michailidou et al. (Nature, 2017). F.J.M.B. has received fees and grant support from Merck Serono and Ferring BV. D.A.L. has received financial support from several national and international government and charitable funders as well as from Medtronic Ltd and Roche Diagnostics for research that is unrelated to this study. N.S. is scientific consultant for Ansh Laboratories. The other authors declare no competing interests.

Association of histological features with laryngeal squamous cell carcinoma recurrences: a population-based study of 1502 patients in the Netherlands.

BACKGROUND: Recurrences remain an important problem in laryngeal squamous cell carcinoma. Little has been described about histological characteristics of the primary laryngeal tumor that may be associated with recurrences. Identifying risk factors for recurrences might help in adapting treatment or follow-up. Using real-life population-based data, we aimed to identify histological features of the primary tumor associated with recurrences and overall survival. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Demographic, clinical and treatment information on all first primary invasive laryngeal tumors diagnosed in 2010-2014 (N = 3705) were extracted from the population-based nationwide Netherlands cancer registry (NCR) and linked to PALGA, the nationwide Dutch pathology registry, to obtain data on histological factors and recurrences. For a random 1502 patients histological information i.e., keratinization, perineural invasion (PNI+), vascular invasion (VI+), growth pattern, degree of differentiation, extracapsular spread (ECS+), cartilage- and bone invasion and extralaryngeal extension, was manually extracted from narrative pathology reports and analyzed for locoregional recurrence and overall survival using cox regression analysis. RESULTS: In total, 299 patients developed a locoregional recurrence and 555 patients died. Keratinization (HR = 0.96 (95%CI: 0.68-1.34) p = 0.79), two or three adverse characteristics (PNI+, VI+, non-cohesive growth) (HR = 1.38 (95% CI: 0.63-3.01) p = 0.42), and ECS+ (HR = 1.38 (95% CI: 0.48-4.02) p = 0.55) were not associated to recurrence. For death, also no significant association was found. CONCLUSION: In this population-based real-life dataset on laryngeal carcinoma in the Netherlands, histological factors were not associated with locoregional recurrences or overall survival, but future studies should investigate the role of these features in treatment decisions.

The progressive relationship between increasing Breslow thickness and decreasing survival is lost in patients with ultrathick melanomas (≥15 mm in thickness).

BACKGROUND: Survival tends to decrease as the Breslow thickness of a primary melanoma increases. However, little is known about the prognostic value of Breslow thickness in patients with very thick melanomas. OBJECTIVE: We sought to assess survival in patients with melanomas ≥4.0 mm in Breslow thickness. METHODS: A pooled cohort of 5595 patients (4107 Dutch and 1488 Australian) with melanomas ≥4.0 mm in thickness diagnosed from 2000 to 2014 was analyzed. Standard and spline Cox regressions were generated for overall survival (OS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS). RESULTS: The median follow-up was 3.4 years. The continuous hazard ratios (HRs) for OS and RFS increased steadily as the Breslow thickness increased to 15 mm, stabilized up to 20 mm, and decreased thereafter. Using patients with melanomas 4 to <10 mm thick as a reference group, the categoric HR for OS increased up to the 15- to -<20-mm thickness category and then decreased (HR, 1.46 [95% CI, 1.29-1.66], P < .0001 for 10-<15 mm; HR, 1.97 [95% CI, 1.55-2.51], P < .0001 for 15-<20 mm; and HR, 1.36 [95% CI, 1.07-1.84], P = .045 for ≥20 mm). For the RFS, similar trends were observed. LIMITATIONS: Retrospective study. Small cohorts of patients with melanomas 15-<20mm and ≥20mm. CONCLUSION: The progressive relationship between increasing Breslow thickness and decreasing survival is lost in patients with melanomas ≥15 mm in thickness.

Anti-Müllerian hormone levels and risk of type 2 diabetes in women.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Given its role in ovarian follicle development, circulating anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH) is considered to be a marker of reproductive ageing. Although accelerated reproductive ageing has been associated with a higher risk of type 2 diabetes, research on the relationship between AMH and type 2 diabetes risk is scarce. Therefore, we aimed to investigate whether age-specific AMH levels and age-related AMH trajectories are associated with type 2 diabetes risk in women. METHODS: We measured AMH in repeated plasma samples from 3293 female participants (12,460 samples in total), aged 20-59 years at recruitment, from the Doetinchem Cohort Study, a longitudinal study with follow-up visits every 5 years. We calculated age-specific AMH tertiles at baseline to account for the strong AMH-age correlation. Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for confounders were used to assess the association between baseline age-specific AMH tertiles and incident type 2 diabetes. We applied linear mixed models to compare age-related AMH trajectories for women who developed type 2 diabetes with trajectories for women who did not develop diabetes. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 20 years, 163 women developed type 2 diabetes. Lower baseline age-specific AMH levels were associated with a higher type 2 diabetes risk (HRT2vsT3 1.24 [95% CI 0.81, 1.92]; HRT1vsT3 1.62 [95% CI 1.06, 2.48]; ptrend = 0.02). These findings seem to be supported by predicted AMH trajectories, which suggested that plasma AMH levels were lower at younger ages in women who developed type 2 diabetes compared with women who did not. The trajectories also suggested that AMH levels declined at a slower rate in women who developed type 2 diabetes, although differences in trajectories were not statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: We observed that lower age-specific AMH levels were associated with a higher risk of type 2 diabetes in women. Longitudinal analyses did not show clear evidence of differing AMH trajectories between women who developed type 2 diabetes compared with women who did not, possibly because these analyses were underpowered. Further research is needed to investigate whether AMH is part of the biological mechanism explaining the association between reproductive ageing and type 2 diabetes. Graphical abstract.

Long-term exposure to air pollution and liver cancer incidence in six European cohorts.

Particulate matter air pollution and diesel engine exhaust have been classified as carcinogenic for lung cancer, yet few studies have explored associations with liver cancer. We used six European adult cohorts which were recruited between 1985 and 2005, pooled within the "Effects of low-level air pollution: A study in Europe" (ELAPSE) project, and followed for the incidence of liver cancer until 2011 to 2015. The annual average exposure to nitrogen dioxide (NO2 ), particulate matter with diameter <2.5 µm (PM2.5 ), black carbon (BC), warm-season ozone (O3 ), and eight elemental components of PM2.5 (copper, iron, zinc, sulfur, nickel, vanadium, silicon, and potassium) were estimated by European-wide hybrid land-use regression models at participants' residential addresses. We analyzed the association between air pollution and liver cancer incidence by Cox proportional hazards models adjusting for potential confounders. Of 330 064 cancer-free adults at baseline, 512 developed liver cancer during a mean follow-up of 18.1 years. We observed positive linear associations between NO2 (hazard ratio, 95% confidence interval: 1.17, 1.02-1.35 per 10 µg/m3 ), PM2.5 (1.12, 0.92-1.36 per 5 µg/m3 ), and BC (1.15, 1.00-1.33 per 0.5 10-5 /m) and liver cancer incidence. Associations with NO2 and BC persisted in two-pollutant models with PM2.5 . Most components of PM2.5 were associated with the risk of liver cancer, with the strongest associations for sulfur and vanadium, which were robust to adjustment for PM2.5 or NO2 . Our study suggests that ambient air pollution may increase the risk of liver cancer, even at concentrations below current EU standards.

Effects of exercise in breast cancer patients: implications of the trials within cohorts (TwiCs) design in the UMBRELLA Fit trial.

PURPOSE: The Trials within Cohorts (TwiCs) design aims to overcome problems faced in conventional RCTs. We evaluated the TwiCs design when estimating the effect of exercise on quality of life (QoL) and fatigue in inactive breast cancer survivors. METHODS: UMBRELLA Fit was conducted within the prospective UMBRELLA breast cancer cohort. Patients provided consent for future randomization at cohort entry. We randomized inactive patients 12-18 months after cohort enrollment. The intervention group (n = 130) was offered a 12-week supervised exercise intervention. The control group (n = 130) was not informed and received usual care. Six-month exercise effects on QoL and fatigue as measured in the cohort were analyzed with intention-to-treat (ITT), instrumental variable (IV), and propensity scores (PS) analyses. RESULTS: Fifty-two percent (n = 68) of inactive patients accepted the intervention. Physical activity increased in patients in the intervention group, but not in the control group. We found no benefit of exercise for dimensions of QoL (ITT difference global QoL: 0.8, 95% CI = - 2.2; 3.8) and fatigue, except for a small beneficial effect on physical fatigue (ITT difference: - 1.1, 95% CI = - 1.8; - 0.3; IV: - 1.9, 95% CI = - 3.3; - 0.5, PS: - 1.2, 95% CI = - 2.3; - 0.2). CONCLUSION: TwiCs gave insight into exercise intervention acceptance: about half of inactive breast cancer survivors accepted the offer and increased physical activity levels. The offer resulted in no improvement on QoL, and a small beneficial effect on physical fatigue. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Netherlands Trial Register (NTR5482/NL.52062.041.15), date of registration: December 07, 2015.

Reducing False-Positive Screening MRI Rate in Women with Extremely Dense Breasts Using Prediction Models Based on Data from the DENSE Trial.

Background High breast density increases breast cancer risk and lowers mammographic sensitivity. Supplemental MRI screening improves cancer detection but increases the number of false-positive screenings. Thus, methods to distinguish true-positive MRI screening results from false-positive ones are needed. Purpose To build prediction models based on clinical characteristics and MRI findings to reduce the rate of false-positive screening MRI findings in women with extremely dense breasts. Materials and Methods Clinical characteristics and MRI findings in Dutch breast cancer screening participants (age range, 50-75 years) with positive first-round MRI screening results (Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System 3, 4, or 5) after a normal screening mammography with extremely dense breasts (Volpara density category 4) were prospectively collected within the randomized controlled Dense Tissue and Early Breast Neoplasm Screening (DENSE) trial from December 2011 through November 2015. In this secondary analysis, prediction models were built using multivariable logistic regression analysis to distinguish true-positive MRI screening findings from false-positive ones. Results Among 454 women (median age, 52 years; interquartile range, 50-57 years) with a positive MRI result in a first supplemental MRI screening round, 79 were diagnosed with breast cancer (true-positive findings), and 375 had false-positive MRI results. The full prediction model (area under the receiver operating characteristics curve [AUC], 0.88; 95% CI: 0.84, 0.92), based on all collected clinical characteristics and MRI findings, could have prevented 45.5% (95% CI: 39.6, 51.5) of false-positive recalls and 21.3% (95% CI: 15.7, 28.3) of benign biopsies without missing any cancers. The model solely based on readily available MRI findings and age had a comparable performance (AUC, 0.84; 95% CI: 0.79, 0.88; P = .15) and could have prevented 35.5% (95% CI: 30.4, 41.1) of false-positive MRI screening results and 13.0% (95% CI: 8.8, 18.6) of benign biopsies. Conclusion Prediction models based on clinical characteristics and MRI findings may be useful to reduce the false-positive first-round screening MRI rate and benign biopsy rate in women with extremely dense breasts. Clinical trial registration no. NCT01315015 © RSNA, 2021 Online supplemental material is available for this article. See also the editorial by Imbriaco in this issue.

Supplemental Breast MRI for Women with Extremely Dense Breasts: Results of the Second Screening Round of the DENSE Trial.

Background In the first (prevalent) supplemental MRI screening round of the Dense Tissue and Early Breast Neoplasm Screening (DENSE) trial, a considerable number of breast cancers were found at the cost of an increased false-positive rate (FPR). In incident screening rounds, a lower cancer detection rate (CDR) is expected due to a smaller pool of prevalent cancers, and a reduced FPR, due to the availability of prior MRI examinations. Purpose To investigate screening performance indicators of the second round (incidence round) of the DENSE trial. Materials and Methods The DENSE trial (ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT01315015) is embedded within the Dutch population-based biennial mammography screening program for women aged 50-75 years. MRI examinations were performed between December 2011 and January 2016. Women were eligible for the second round when they again had a negative screening mammogram 2 years after their first MRI. The recall rate, biopsy rate, CDR, FPR, positive predictive values, and distributions of tumor characteristics were calculated and compared with results of the first round using 95% CIs and χ2 tests. Results A total of 3436 women (median age, 56 years; interquartile range, 48-64 years) underwent a second MRI screening. The CDR was 5.8 per 1000 screening examinations (95% CI: 3.8, 9.0) compared with 16.5 per 1000 screening examinations (95% CI: 13.3, 20.5) in the first round. The FPR was 26.3 per 1000 screening examinations (95% CI: 21.5, 32.3) in the second round versus 79.8 per 1000 screening examinations (95% CI: 72.4, 87.9) in the first round. The positive predictive value for recall was 18% (20 of 110 participants recalled; 95% CI: 12.1, 26.4), and the positive predictive value for biopsy was 24% (20 of 84 participants who underwent biopsy; 95% CI: 16.0, 33.9), both comparable to that of the first round. All tumors in the second round were stage 0-I and node negative. Conclusion The incremental cancer detection rate in the second round was 5.8 per 1000 screening examinations-compared with 16.5 per 1000 screening examinations in the first round. This was accompanied by a strong reduction in the number of false-positive results. © RSNA, 2021 Online supplemental material is available for this article. See also the editorial by Moy and Gao in this issue.

Impact of the suspension and restart of the Dutch breast cancer screening program on breast cancer incidence and stage during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The COVID-19 pandemic forced the Dutch national breast screening program to a halt in week 12, 2020. In week 26, the breast program was resumed at 40% capacity, which increased to 60% in week 34. We examined the impact of the suspension and restart of the screening program on the incidence of screen-detected and non-screen-detected breast cancer. We selected women aged 50-74, diagnosed during weeks 2-35 of 2018 (n = 7250), 2019 (n = 7302), or 2020 (n = 5306), from the Netherlands Cancer Registry. Weeks 2-35 were divided in seven periods, based on events occurring at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. Incidence of screen-detected and non-screen-detected tumors was calculated overall and by age group, cT-stage, and cTNM-stage for each period in 2020, and compared to the incidence in the same period of 2018/2019 (averaged). The incidence of screen-detected tumors decreased during weeks 12-13, reached almost zero during weeks 14-25, and increased during weeks 26-35. Incidence of non-screen-detected tumors decreased to a lesser extent during weeks 12-16. The decrease in incidence was seen in all age groups and mainly occurred for cTis, cT1, DCIS, and stage I tumors. Due to the suspension of the breast cancer screening program, and the restart at reduced capacity, the incidence of screen-detected breast tumors decreased by 67% during weeks 9-35 2020, which equates to about 2000 potentially delayed breast cancer diagnoses. Up to August 2020 there was no indication of a shift towards higher stage breast cancers after restart of the screening.