Predictors of mortality in nursing-home residents with pneumonia: a multicentre study.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate predictors of mortality in patients residing in nursing-homes (NHs) or long-term care facilities (LTCFs) with diagnosis of NH-acquired pneumonia (NHAP). METHODS: We conducted an observational, prospective study (December 2013-December 2015) of patients residing in nine NHs/LTCFs of Central and Northern Italy with diagnosis of NHAP. Data on demographics, comorbidities, microbiology, and therapies were entered into an electronic database. To identify risk factors associated with 30-day mortality, we performed univariable and multivariable analyses, and predictors were internally validated using a bootstrap resampling procedure. We derived a prediction rule using the coefficients obtained from the multivariable logistic regression. The model obtained was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). RESULTS: Overall, 446 patients with NHAP were included in the final cohort. The median age was 80 (IQR 75-87) years. A definite aetiology was obtained in 120 (26.9%) patients; of these, 66 (55%) had a culture positive for a multidrug-resistant pathogen. The 30-day mortality was 28.7%. On multivariate analysis, malnutrition (OR 7.8; 95% CI 3-20.2, 2 points), bilateral pneumonia (OR 3.7; 95% CI 1.4-9.8, 1 point), acute mental status deterioration (OR 6.2; 95% CI 2.2-17.6, 2 points), hypotension (OR 7.7; 95% CI 2.3-24.9, 2 points), and PaO2/FiO2 ratio ≤250 (OR 7.4; 95% CI 2.2-24.2, 2 points) were independently associated with 30-day mortality. The derived prediction rule showed an AUROC of 0.83 (95% CI 0.78-0.87, p <0.001). CONCLUSIONS: NH residents with pneumonia have specific risk factors associated with 30-day mortality. Malnutrition and acute mental change appear as major determinants of death in this population.

Prevalence of transmitted nucleoside analogue-resistant HIV-1 strains and pre-existing mutations in pol reverse transcriptase and protease region: outcome after treatment in recently infected individuals.

We retrospectively studied 38 Italian recently HIV-1-infected subjects who seroconverted from 1994 to 1997 to investigate: (i) the prevalence of nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTI)-related mutations at primary infection; (ii) the proportion of naturally occurring mutations in reverse transcriptase (RT) and protease regions of patients naive for non-nucleoside RT inhibitors (NNRTIs) and protease inhibitors (PIs); (iii) the drug-susceptibility to NRTIs and PIs in subjects with NRTI- and/or PI-related mutations; and (iv) the outcome of seroconverters treated with various NRTIs or NRTI/PI regimens. Baseline HIV-1 plasma viraemia and absolute CD4 count at baseline could not be used to distinguish patients with NRTI- and/or PI-related pre-existing mutations from those with wild-type virus (P = 0.693 and P = 0.542, respectively). The frequency of zidovudine-related mutations was 21% in the study period. The response to treatment was not significantly different in subjects with or without genotypic zidovudine-related mutations at primary infection (P = 0.744 for HIV-1 RNA and P = 0.102 for CD4 cells). Some natural variation (2.6%) was present within regions 98-108 and 179-190 of RT involved in NNRTI resistance. The high natural polymorphism in the protease region present in our patients was similar to that reported by others. In our study some PI-associated substitutions, thought to be compensatory in protease enzymatic function, could confer intermediate to high PI-resistance. As discrepancies between genotypic and phenotypic results may exist in recent seroconverters, our data suggest that the role of transmitted NRTI- and PI-resistant variants remain to be fully elucidated in vivo.

Role of CCR5, CCR2 and SDF-1 gene polymorphisms in a population of HIV-1 infected individuals.

The finding that in addition to CD4 molecule HIV-1 uses, CCR5 or CXCR4 receptors to enter target cells prompted the research to identify polymorphisms in coreceptor genes affecting disease progression. In this study we analyzed the prevalence of CCR5-delta32, CCR2-641 and SDF1-3'A alleles in a highly selected group of 42 Long-Term Nonprogressors (LTNPs) compared to 112 subjects with a typical course of HIV-1 infection (TPs) and 117 healthy controls (HCs). In addition, we correlated CCR5, CCR2 and SDF-1 genotypes with molecular indexes of HIV-1 replication, cell-free RNA and both unspliced (US) and multiply spliced (MS) intracellular transcripts, to investigate the role of the mutant alleles in determining a long-term nonprogressive course of HIV-1 disease. Our results indicate a significantly higher prevalence of CCR5-delta32 allele in LTNPs compared to TPs (p=0.0434), while the proportions of CCR2-64I and SDF1-3'A alleles were comparable between the two groups. However, SDF-1 wild type LTNP subjects showed significantly lower levels of HIV-1 genomic RNA, US and MS transcripts than SDF1-3'A heterozygous ones (p=0.0021, 0.016, 0.0031, respectively), whereas both CCR5 and CCR2 wild type individuals had similar rates of viral replication compared to CCR5-delta32 and CCR2-64I heterozygous ones. CCR5, CCR2 and SDF-1 combined genotypes were also studied and this analysis did not identify a specific protective cluster of alleles in LTNPs. Taken together, our results indicate that genetic background involving CCR5, CCR2 and SDF-1 alleles may play a limited role in the natural history of HIV-1 infection.

Prevalence of HIV-1 resistant strains in recent seroconverters.

Twenty-nine HIV-1 recently infected subjects were retrospectively studied to investigate both the prevalence of nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTI)-related mutations at primary infection and the proportion of naturally occurring mutations in protease inhibitor (PI)-naive patients. Neither HIV-1 plasma viremia nor CD4 absolute count at baseline could distinguish patients with NRTI pre-existing mutations from those with wild-type virus. An increasing proportion of ZDV-related mutations was observed over time with an overall frequency of 20.7% in the study period. Only 1 out of 6 patients (16.7%) with ZDV-related mutations showed a phenotypically ZDV resistant isolate. A striking proportion of polymorphic changes was present in the protease region of pol gene in newly infected individuals. As many as 80% of seroconverters presented at least one naturally occurring substitution. Some PI-associated substitutions, thought to be compensatory in protease enzymatic function, could confer intermediate to high PI-resistance. Their role following PI administration remains to be elucidated. Our data suggest that the choice of drugs should be oriented by both genotypic and phenotypic evaluations to tailor individual regimens in seroconverters.

Primary HIV-1 resistance in recently and chronically infected individuals of the Italian Cohort Naive for Antiretrovirals.

The risk of acquiring HIV-1 drug resistance at time of infection has become a public health problem following the widespread use of antiretroviral drugs in developed countries. Although a number of studies have reported data regarding the prevalence of HIV-1 primary resistance in developed countries over the past years, limited knowledge is available regarding the proportion of mutations related to drug resistance in antiretroviral naive subjects with chronic HIV-1 disease. In this study, we evaluated the prevalence of mutations in the reverse-transcriptase (RT) and protease region both in a representative group of recently HIV-1 infected subjects (n=68) and a cohort of chronically-infected HIV-positive patients (n=347) enrolled in the Italian Cohort of Antiretroviral Naive patients (I.CO.NA.). In recently infected individuals, the overall prevalence of mutations for nucleoside RTI (NRTIs) was 10/68 (14.7%). The distribution of mutations by calendar year were 0, 1 in 1996, 9, 3 in 1997 and 1, 0 in 1998 for NRTIs and protease inhibitors (PIs) respectively. Thymidine associated mutations were identified in six subjects (8.8%), five of whom had one mutation [41L, 70K (n=2), 215Y] and one had two mutations (67N+219Q). Four subjects (5.9%) showed the changes associated with resistance to lamivudine (184V or 118I). No non nucleoside-RTI (NNRTI) mutations were present in the study period. Primary PIs mutations (two 46L and two 82I) were present in four subjects (5.9%). Of note, mutations related to resistance to more than one class of antiretrovirals were present in one (1.5%). Among patients with chronic infection a large proportion (88.5%) carried no mutations in RT region, 11.5% individuals carried one or more mutations associated with resistance to NRTI (7.8%), or NNRTI (4.9%), with 4 patients carrying mutations to both classes. Among mutations associated with high-level resistance to RTI, T215Y was found in only 2 patients, M184V in 2 cases, T69D in another case, and K103N in only 1 patient, for a total of 6 patients (one carrying both T215Y and M184V) (1.7%). Primary mutations associated with substantial resistance to PIs were found in only 5/347 patients (1.4%); all the other patients carried only secondary mutations. Prevalence of mutations associated with high-level resistance to antiretroviral drugs is stable in recently infected individuals and low in patients with established HIV infection. The potential impact of transmitted mutations on the response to first regimen in individuals carrying transmitted mutations needs to be assessed by prospective studies.

Identification of two distinct subsets of long-term nonprogressors with divergent viral activity by stromal-derived factor 1 chemokine gene polymorphism analysis.

Stromal-derived factor (SDF)-1, the natural ligand for CXCR4, is present in a common polymorphic variant defined by a G-->A transition in the 3' untranslated region of the gene. In persons infected with human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1), the homozygous genotype (SDF1-3'A/3'A) has been postulated to interfere with the appearance of T-tropic syncytium-inducing strains. The polymorphism of SDF1 was correlated with HIV-1 phenotype, plasma viremia, and unspliced and multiply spliced specific transcripts in 158 virologically characterized HIV-1-infected patients (39 recent seroconverters, 75 typical progressors, and 44 AIDS patients) and in 42 HIV-1-infected long-term nonprogressors (LTNPs). Analysis of SDF1 allele distribution revealed that SDF1-3'A/3'A status is associated with low CD4 cell count (P=.0449) but not with a specific HIV-1 phenotype. In LTNPs, SDF1-+/+ condition defined a subset of persons with lower HIV-1 replication than in heterozygous subjects. The low viral activity in SDF1-+/+ LTNPs suggests that other factors play a major role in vivo in determining the course of HIV-1 infection.