Phase Transition in a Non-Markovian Animal Exploration Model with Preferential Returns.

We study a non-Markovian and nonstationary model of animal mobility incorporating both exploration and memory in the form of preferential returns. Exact results for the probability of visiting a given number of sites are derived and a practical WKB approximation to treat the nonstationary problem is developed. A mean-field version of this model, first suggested by Song et al., [Modelling the scaling properties of human mobility, Nat. Phys. 6, 818 (2010)NPAHAX1745-247310.1038/nphys1760] was shown to well describe human movement data. We show that our generalized model adequately describes empirical movement data of Egyptian fruit bats (Rousettus aegyptiacus) when accounting for interindividual variation in the population. We also study the probability of visiting any site a given number of times and derive a mean-field equation. Our analysis yields a remarkable phase transition occurring at preferential returns which scale linearly with past visits. Following empirical evidence, we suggest that this phase transition reflects a trade-off between extensive and intensive foraging modes.

Competition in a system of Brownian particles: Encouraging achievers.

We introduce and analytically and numerically study a simple model of interagent competition, where underachievement is strongly discouraged. We consider N≫1 particles performing independent Brownian motions on the line. Two particles are selected at random and at random times, and the particle closest to the origin is reset to it. We show that, in the limit of N→∞, the dynamics of the coarse-grained particle density field can be described by a nonlocal hydrodynamic theory which was encountered in a study of the spatial extent of epidemics in a critical regime. The hydrodynamic theory predicts relaxation of the system toward a stationary density profile of the "swarm" of particles, which exhibits a power-law decay at large distances. An interesting feature of this relaxation is a nonstationary "halo" around the stationary solution, which continues to expand in a self-similar manner. The expansion is ultimately arrested by finite-N effects at a distance of order sqrt[N] from the origin, which gives an estimate of the average radius of the swarm. The hydrodynamic theory does not capture the behavior of the particle farthest from the origin-the current leader. We suggest a simple scenario for typical fluctuations of the leader's distance from the origin and show that the mean distance continues to grow indefinitely as sqrt[t]. Finally, we extend the inter-agent competition from n=2 to an arbitrary number n of competing Brownian particles (n≪N). Our analytical predictions are supported by Monte Carlo simulations.

Fluctuations and first-passage properties of systems of Brownian particles with reset.

We study, analytically and numerically, stationary fluctuations in two models involving N Brownian particles undergoing stochastic resetting in one dimension. We start with the well-known reset model where the particles reset to the origin independently (model A). Then we introduce nonlocal interparticle correlations by postulating that only the particle farthest from the origin can be reset to the origin (model B). At long times, models A and B approach nonequilibrium steady states. In the limit of N→∞, the steady-state particle density in model A has an infinite support, whereas in model B, it has a compact support, like the recently studied Brownian bees model. A finite system radius, which scales at large N as lnN, appears in model A when N is finite. In both models, we study stationary fluctuations of the center of mass of the system and of the radius of the system due to the random character of the Brownian motion and of the resetting events. In model A, we determine exact distributions of these two quantities. The variance of the center of mass for both models scales as 1/N. The variance of the radius is independent of N in model A and exhibits an unusual scaling (lnN)/N in model B. The latter scaling is intimately related to the 1/f noise in the radius autocorrelation. Finally, we evaluate the mean first-passage time (MFPT) to a distant target in model A, model B, and the Brownian bees model. For model A, we obtain an exact asymptotic expression for the MFPT which scales as 1/N. For model B and the Brownian bees model, we propose a sharp upper bound for the MFPT. The bound assumes an evaporation scenario, where the first passage requires multiple attempts of a single particle, which breaks away from the rest of the particles, to reach the target. The resulting MFPT for model B and the Brownian bees model scales exponentially with sqrt[N]. We verify this bound by performing highly efficient weighted-ensemble simulations of the first passage in model B.

Big-data approaches lead to an increased understanding of the ecology of animal movement.

Understanding animal movement is essential to elucidate how animals interact, survive, and thrive in a changing world. Recent technological advances in data collection and management have transformed our understanding of animal "movement ecology" (the integrated study of organismal movement), creating a big-data discipline that benefits from rapid, cost-effective generation of large amounts of data on movements of animals in the wild. These high-throughput wildlife tracking systems now allow more thorough investigation of variation among individuals and species across space and time, the nature of biological interactions, and behavioral responses to the environment. Movement ecology is rapidly expanding scientific frontiers through large interdisciplinary and collaborative frameworks, providing improved opportunities for conservation and insights into the movements of wild animals, and their causes and consequences.

Extinction risk of a metapopulation under bistable local dynamics.

We study the extinction risk of a fragmented population residing on a network of patches coupled by migration, where the local patch dynamics includes deterministic bistability. Mixing between patches is shown to dramatically influence the population's viability. We demonstrate that slow migration always increases the population's global extinction risk compared to the isolated case, while at fast migration synchrony between patches minimizes the population's extinction risk. Moreover, we discover a critical migration rate that maximizes the extinction risk of the population, and identify an early-warning signal when approaching this state. Our theoretical results are confirmed via the highly efficient weighted ensemble method. Notably, our theoretical formalism can also be applied to studying switching in gene regulatory networks with multiple transcriptional states.

Population extinction under bursty reproduction in a time-modulated environment.

In recent years nondemographic variability has been shown to greatly affect dynamics of stochastic populations. For example, nondemographic noise in the form of a bursty reproduction process with an a priori unknown burst size, or environmental variability in the form of time-varying reaction rates, have been separately found to dramatically impact the extinction risk of isolated populations. In this work we investigate the extinction risk of an isolated population under the combined influence of these two types of nondemographic variation. Using the so-called momentum-space Wentzel-Kramers-Brillouin (WKB) approach and accounting for the explicit time dependence in the reaction rates, we arrive at a set of time-dependent Hamilton equations. To this end, we evaluate the population's extinction risk by finding the instanton of the time-perturbed Hamiltonian numerically, whereas analytical expressions are presented in particular limits using various perturbation techniques. We focus on two classes of time-varying environments: periodically varying rates corresponding to seasonal effects and a sudden decrease in the birth rate corresponding to a catastrophe. All our theoretical results are tested against numerical Monte Carlo simulations with time-dependent rates and also against a numerical solution of the corresponding time-dependent Hamilton equations.