Tree mortality from an exceptional drought spanning mesic to semiarid ecoregions.

Significant areas of the southern USA periodically experience intense drought that can lead to episodic tree mortality events. Because drought tolerance varies among species and size of trees, such events can alter the structure and function of terrestrial ecosystem in ways that are difficult to detect with local data sets or solely with remote-sensing platforms. We investigated a widespread tree mortality event that resulted from the worst 1-year drought on record for the state of Texas, USA. The drought affected ecoregions spanning mesic to semiarid climate zones and provided a unique opportunity to test hypotheses related to how trees of varying genus and size were affected. The study was based on an extensive set of 599 distributed plots, each 0.16 ha, surveyed in the summer following the drought. In each plot, dead trees larger than 12.7 cm in diameter were counted, sized, and identified to the genus level. Estimates of total mortality were obtained for each of 10 regions using a combination of design-based estimators and calibrated remote sensing using MODIS 1-yr change in normalized difference vegetation index products developed by the U.S. Forest Service. As compared with most of the publicized extreme die-off events, this study documents relatively low rates of mortality occurring over a very large area. However, statewide, regional tree mortality was massive, with an estimated 6.2% of the live trees perishing, nearly nine times greater than normal annual mortality. Dead tree diameters averaged larger than the live trees for most ecoregions, and this trend was most pronounced in the wetter climate zones, suggesting a potential re-ordering of species dominance and downward trend in tree size that was specific to climatic regions. The net effect on carbon storage was estimated to be a redistribution of 24-30 Tg C from the live tree to dead tree carbon pool. The dead tree survey documented drought mortality in more than 29 genera across all regions, and surprisingly, drought resistant and sensitive species fared similarly in some regions. Both angiosperms and gymnosperms were affected. These results highlight that drought-driven mortality alters forest structure differently across climatic regions and genera.

The effect of permafrost thaw on old carbon release and net carbon exchange from tundra.

Permafrost soils in boreal and Arctic ecosystems store almost twice as much carbon as is currently present in the atmosphere. Permafrost thaw and the microbial decomposition of previously frozen organic carbon is considered one of the most likely positive climate feedbacks from terrestrial ecosystems to the atmosphere in a warmer world. The rate of carbon release from permafrost soils is highly uncertain, but it is crucial for predicting the strength and timing of this carbon-cycle feedback effect, and thus how important permafrost thaw will be for climate change this century and beyond. Sustained transfers of carbon to the atmosphere that could cause a significant positive feedback to climate change must come from old carbon, which forms the bulk of the permafrost carbon pool that accumulated over thousands of years. Here we measure net ecosystem carbon exchange and the radiocarbon age of ecosystem respiration in a tundra landscape undergoing permafrost thaw to determine the influence of old carbon loss on ecosystem carbon balance. We find that areas that thawed over the past 15 years had 40 per cent more annual losses of old carbon than minimally thawed areas, but had overall net ecosystem carbon uptake as increased plant growth offset these losses. In contrast, areas that thawed decades earlier lost even more old carbon, a 78 per cent increase over minimally thawed areas; this old carbon loss contributed to overall net ecosystem carbon release despite increased plant growth. Our data document significant losses of soil carbon with permafrost thaw that, over decadal timescales, overwhelms increased plant carbon uptake at rates that could make permafrost a large biospheric carbon source in a warmer world.

Long-term effects of catastrophic wind on southern US coastal forests: Lessons from a major hurricane.

Threats posed by windstorms are an increasing concern to forest managers in the southern United States (US). Studies suggest that the southern US will experience an increase in the occurrence as well as the intensity of windstorms, such as hurricanes, in the future. However, forest managers may have difficulty preparing for this future because there is limited understanding of how windstorms affect the structure and composition of forests over the long term. In this study, we evaluated the impacts of Hurricane Ivan, which made landfall in September 2004 near Gulf Shore, Alabama, impacting forests in the western Florida Panhandle and southwestern Alabama. We acquired the United States Department of Agriculture Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) plot data available for the period from 2002 to 2018 for the Ivan-affected area and classified the plots into 4 categories: (1). ND (No Disturbance), (2). NDBH (No Disturbance but Harvested), (3). ID (Disturbance caused by Hurricane Ivan), and (4). IDAH (Disturbance caused by Hurricane Ivan and Harvested). The plots that were damaged by Hurricane Ivan (ID and IDAH plots) had significantly (α = 0.05) (1) higher basal area, (2) higher quadratic mean diameter and height, (3) more diverse tree species composition (species richness and Shannon diversity index), (4) denser stocking of seedling and saplings, (5) lower proportion of dead trees or saplings, and (6) higher live aboveground biomass than the plots that were not damaged by the hurricane (ND and NDBH plots). Diverse stands were not necessarily more windstorm resistant. Species diversity in the overstory may not improve forest resistance to hurricane damage but may improve its resilience following the hurricane. The study suggests that managing stand structure through density management and stand improvement could be critical to windstorm resilience and resistance in the southern US forests.

Accounting for two-billion tons of stabilized soil carbon.

The pedosphere is the largest terrestrial reservoir of organic carbon, yet soil-carbon variability and its representation in Earth system models is a large source of uncertainty for carbon-cycle science and climate projections. Much of this uncertainty is attributed to local and regional-scale variability, and predicting this variation can be challenging if variable selection is based solely on a priori assumptions due to the scale-dependent nature of environmental determinants. Data mining can optimize predictive modeling by allowing machine-learning algorithms to learn from and discover complex patterns in large datasets that may have otherwise gone unnoticed, thus increasing the potential for knowledge discovery. In this analysis, we identify important, regional-scale determinants for top- and subsoil-carbon stabilization in production forestland across the southeastern US. Specifically, we apply recursive feature elimination to a large suite of socio-environmental data to strategically select a parsimonious, yet highly predictive covariate set. This is achieved by recursively considering smaller and smaller covariate sets-or features-by first training the estimator on the full set to obtain feature importance. The least important features are pruned, and the procedure is recursively repeated until a desired number of covariates is identified. We show that although carbon ranges from 0.3 to 8.2 kg m-2 in the topsoil (0 to 20 cm), and from 0.4 to 17.6 kg m-2 in the subsoil (20 to 100 cm), this variability is predictably distributed with precipitation, soil moisture, nitrogen and sand content, gamma ray emissions, mean annual minimum temperature, and elevation. From our spatial predictions, we estimate that 2.6 Pg of soil carbon is currently stabilized in the upper 100 cm of production forestland, which covers 34.7 million ha in the southeastern US.

Root mass, net primary production and turnover in aspen, jack pine and black spruce forests in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, Canada.

Root biomass, net primary production and turnover were studied in aspen, jack pine and black spruce forests in two contrasting climates. The climate of the Southern Study Area (SSA) near Prince Albert, Saskatchewan is warmer and drier in the summer and milder in the winter than the Northern Study Area (NSA) near Thompson, Manitoba, Canada. Ingrowth soil cores and minirhizotrons were used to quantify fine root net primary production (NPPFR). Average daily fine root growth (m m(-2) day(-1)) was positively correlated with soil temperature at 10-cm depth (r(2) = 0.83-0.93) for all three species, with black spruce showing the strongest temperature effect. At both study areas, fine root biomass (measured from soil cores) and fine root length (measured from minirhizotrons) were less for jack pine than for the other two species. Except for the aspen stands, estimates of NPPFR from minirhizotrons were significantly greater than estimates from ingrowth cores. The core method underestimated NPPFR because it does not account for simultaneous fine root growth and mortality. Minirhizotron NPPFR estimates ranged from 59 g m(-2) year(-1) for aspen stands at SSA to 235 g m(-2) year(-1) for black spruce at NSA. The ratio of NPPFR to total detritus production (aboveground litterfall + NPPFR) was greater for evergreen forests than for deciduous forests, suggesting that carbon allocation patterns differ between boreal evergreen and deciduous forests. In all stands, NPPFR consistently exceeded annual fine root turnover and the differences were larger for stands in the NSA than for stands in the SSA, whereas the difference between study areas was only significant for black spruce. The imbalance between NPPFR and fine root turnover is sufficient to explain the net accumulation of carbon in boreal forest soils.