Influence of the external and internal radioactive contamination of the body and the clothes on the results of the thyroidal 131I measurements conducted in Belarus after the Chernobyl accident-Part 2: Monte Carlo simulation of response of detectors near the thyroid.

This paper describes the calculation of the response of the most common types of radiation detectors that were used within the first few weeks after the Chernobyl accident to determine the activity of 131I in the thyroids of Belarusian subjects of an epidemiologic study of thyroid cancer. The radiation detectors, which were placed against the necks of the subjects, measured the exposure rates due to the emission of gamma rays resulting from the radioactive decay of 131I in their thyroids. Because of the external and internal radioactive contamination of the monitored subjects, gamma radiation from many radionuclides in various locations contributed to the exposure rates recorded by the detectors. To estimate accurately the contribution from gamma rays emitted from various internal and external parts of the body, the calibration factors of the radiation detectors, expressed in kBq per µR h- 1, were calculated, by means of Monte Carlo simulation, for external irradiation from unit activities of 17 radionuclides located on 19 parts of the body, as well as for internal irradiation from the same 17 radionuclides in the lungs, from caesium radionuclides distributed uniformly in the whole body, and from 131I in the thyroid. The calculations were performed for six body sizes, representative of the age range of the subjects. In a companion paper, the levels of external and internal contamination of the body were estimated for a variety of exposure conditions. The results presented in the two papers were combined to calculate the 131I activities in the thyroids of all 11,732 Belarusian study subjects of an epidemiologic study of thyroid cancer and, in turn, their thyroid doses.

Influence of the external and internal radioactive contamination of the body and the clothes on the results of the thyroidal 131I measurements conducted in Belarus after the Chernobyl accident. Part 1: Estimation of the external and internal radioactive contamination.

The estimation of the thyroid doses received in Belarus after the Chernobyl accident is based on the analysis of exposure-rate measurements performed with radiation detectors placed against the necks of about 130,000 residents. The purpose of these measurements was to estimate the 131I activity contents of the thyroids of the subjects. However, because the radiation detectors were not equipped with collimators and because the subjects usually wore contaminated clothes, among other factors, the radiation signal included, in addition to the gamma rays emitted during the decay of the 131I activity present in the thyroid, contributions from external contamination of the skin and clothes and internal contamination of organs other than the thyroid by various radionuclides. The assessment of the contributions of the external and internal contamination of the body to the radiation signal is divided into two parts: (1) the estimation of the radionuclide activities deposited on, and incorporated in, various parts of the body, and (2) the responses of the radiation detectors to the gamma rays emitted by the radionuclides deposited on, and incorporated in, various parts of the body. The first part, which is presented in this paper, includes a variety of exposure scenarios, models, and calculations for 17 of the most abundant gamma-emitting radionuclides contributing to the thyroid detector signal, while the second part is presented in a companion paper. The results presented in the two papers were combined to calculate the contributions of the external and internal contamination of the body to the radiation signal, and, in turn, the 131I activities in the thyroids of all subjects of an epidemiologic study of thyroid cancer and other thyroid diseases among 11,732 Belarusian-American cohort members who were exposed in childhood and adolescence.

Dosimetry associated with veterans who participated in nuclear weapons testing.

BACKGROUND: This article summarizes the methodology, results, and challenges of the reconstruction of red bone marrow and male breast doses for a 1982-person sub-cohort of ∼114,270 U.S. military veterans who participated in eight atmospheric nuclear weapons tests between 1945 and 1962. These doses are being used in an epidemiological investigation of leukemia and male breast cancer as part of a study of one million U.S. persons to investigate risk from chronic low-dose radiation exposure. METHODS: Previous doses to these veterans had been estimated for compensation and tended to be biased high but newly available documentation made calculating individual doses and uncertainties using detailed exposure scenarios for each veteran possible. The techniques outlined in this report detail the methodology for developing individual scenarios and accounting for bias and uncertainty in dose based on the assumptions made about exposure. RESULTS: Doses to the atomic veterans in this sub-cohort were relatively low, with about two-thirds receiving red bone marrow doses <5 mGy and only four individuals receiving a red bone marrow dose >50 mGy. The average red bone marrow dose for members of the sub-cohort was 5.9 mGy. Doses to male breast were approximately 20% higher than red bone marrow doses. DISCUSSION AND CHALLENGES: Relatively low uncertainty was achieved as a result of our methodology for reconstructing exposures based on knowledge of the individual veterans' locations and activities from military records. Challenges did arise from use of military records to determine probability of participation in specific activities but accounted for in estimates of uncertainty.

Reconstruction of Enriched Uranium Released to Air from the Former Apollo Facility, Apollo, Pennsylvania.

ABSTRACT: The former Apollo facility converted enriched uranium hexafluoride into uranium oxide for shipment to nuclear fuel fabrication plants from 1957 to 1983. This paper describes quantification of the source term from the Apollo facility in terms of quantities of uranium released, particle size, and solubility characteristics. Releases occurred through stacks, rooftop vents, and an incinerator that operated from 1964 to 1969. Incidental and accidental releases are addressed as part of this analysis. Atmospheric releases of uranium from plant operations were estimated from stack sampling and production records. Roof vents, both filtered and unfiltered, were the major emission points from the plant. The total estimated release of uranium activity (including 234U, 235U, and 238U) to the air was 28 GBq. Measurements by others found that the releases were primarily associated with large particles and that their solubility was variable but generally low (Class Y). The release estimates presented here and those findings were incorporated into a sophisticated atmospheric transport model to estimate atmospheric concentrations and soil contamination levels due to the releases and to reconstruct historical doses to individuals that lived in the vicinity of the former Apollo facility.

Reconstruction of atmospheric concentrations of enriched uranium from the former Apollo facility, Apollo, Pennsylvania, USA.

The former Apollo facility in western Pennsylvania converted enriched uranium hexafluoride into uranium oxide for shipment to nuclear fuel fabrication plants from 1957 to 1983. Atmospheric releases of uranium from plant operations were estimated from stack sampling and production records. Releases occurred through stacks, rooftop vents, and an incinerator that operated from 1964 to 1969. Roof vents that exhausted workplace air was the major emission source from the plant. Total estimated release of uranium activity (including 234U, 235U, and 238U) to the air was 27.9 GBq. Atmospheric transport modeling was performed using a complex terrain model because the plant was located in an incised river valley. Almost two years of meteorological data were collected from a nearby 10-m tower, along with sounding from a collocated sodar. Light mean wind speed (1.56 m s-1) and predominately stable atmospheric conditions frequently resulted in poor dispersion conditions in the facility environs. Environmental sampling included continuous air monitoring data and depth profiles of uranium in soil that was deposited from airborne releases. Soil measurements exhibited a sharp drop-off in uranium concentrations with distance from the facility, indicating that large non-inhalable particles were emitted to the atmosphere. Large particles (~15-25 µm aerodynamic equivalent diameter) accounted for 17.5% of the total emissions. Soil measurements were used for model calibration and validation, while air measurements were used to evaluate model performance. Air concentrations were generally over-predicted for locations near the facility but showed only a slight positive bias for locations north of the facility. Predicted uranium activity air concentrations from Apollo sources averaged over 34 years were about three times greater than the background gross alpha activity value of 81 µBq m-3 in a ~0.5 km2 region surrounding the Apollo facility. The contribution of Apollo uranium to the gross alpha air concentration would have been negligible several kilometers from the facility.

Female breast cancer risk in Bryansk Oblast, Russia, following prolonged low dose rate exposure to radiation from the Chernobyl power station accident.

BACKGROUND: Ionizing radiation is a known cause of female breast cancer, but there have been few studies of the risk after prolonged radiation exposure at low dose rates. METHODS: This population-based case-control study estimated breast cancer risk after ∼25 years' exposure to radiation from the Chernobyl accident. Cases (n = 468) were women ≤55 years old when first diagnosed with invasive breast cancer during October 2008 through February 2013, who lived in Bryansk Oblast, Russia at the time of the accident and their diagnoses. Controls, individually matched to cases on birth year, administrative district of residence and urban vs non-urban settlement during the accident, were women without breast cancer who lived in Bryansk Oblast at the time of the accident and on their cases' diagnosis dates (n = 468). Subjects were interviewed regarding residence, dietary and food source histories to support individualized estimation of their radiation doses to the breast, which ranged from 0.04 - 41 centigray (cGy) (mean 1.3 cGy). RESULTS: In multivariable analyses, the odds ratio for breast cancer risk was 3.0 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.3, 7.0] and 2.7 (95% CI: 1.0, 7.3) in the seventh and eighth dose octiles, respectively, relative to the lowest octile. Analyses of dose effect modification suggested that radiation-related risk may have been higher in women who were younger at the time of the accident and/or at the time of diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS: This study suggests that prolonged exposure to ionizing radiation at low dose rates can increase risk of breast cancer.

The Ukrainian-American study of leukemia and related disorders among Chornobyl cleanup workers from Ukraine: II. Estimation of bone marrow doses.

After the accident that took place on 26 April 1986 at the Chornobyl nuclear power plant, hundreds of thousands of cleanup workers were involved in emergency measures and decontamination activities. In the framework of an epidemiological study of leukemia and other related blood diseases among Ukrainian cleanup workers, individual bone marrow doses have been estimated for 572 cases and controls. Because dose records were available for only about half of the study subjects, a time-and-motion method of dose reconstruction that would be applicable to all study subjects, whether dead or alive, was developed. The doses were calculated in a stochastic mode, thus providing estimates of uncertainties. The arithmetic mean individual bone marrow doses were found to range from 0.00004 to 3,300 mGy, with an average value of 87 mGy over the 572 study subjects. The uncertainties, characterized by the geometric standard deviation of the probability distribution of the individual dose, varied from subject to subject and had a median value of about 2. These results should be treated as preliminary; it is likely that the dose calculations and particularly the uncertainty estimates will be improved in the follow-up of this effort.

Credibility of Chernobyl thyroid doses exceeding 10 Gy based on in-vivo measurements of 131I in Belarus.

Many estimates of individual thyroid doses to children and adults in Belarus have been based on the results of direct thyroid measurements made using survey meters soon after the Chernobyl accident in 1986. Thyroid doses from internal exposure to 131I that are estimated using such measurements are usually considered to be better than estimates obtained by environmental transport modeling of concentrations expected in milk. Nonetheless, some of the estimated doses, primarily those to children, were high enough to raise questions about their credibility. Questions about high thyroid doses, taken here to be those exceeding 10 Gy, identified the need for further analysis, which is reported in this article. The overall conclusion is that the initial dose estimates exceeding 10 Gy based on direct thyroid measurements in Belarus are credible estimates and not mistakes. While the possibility of copying and data entry errors cannot be completely ruled out, the consistency of multiple measurements for many individuals supports the high dose estimates.

Reconstruction of atmospheric concentrations and deposition of uranium and decay products released from the former uranium mill at Uravan, Colorado.

Radionuclide concentrations in air from uranium milling emissions were estimated for the town of Uravan, Colorado, USA and the surrounding area for a 49-yr period of mill operations beginning in 1936 and ending in 1984. Milling processes with the potential to emit radionuclides to the air included crushing and grinding of ores; conveyance of ore; ore roasting, drying, and packaging of the product (U(3)O(8)); and fugitive dust releases from ore piles, tailings' piles, and roads. The town of Uravan is located in a narrow canyon formed by the San Miguel River in western Colorado. Atmospheric transport modeling required a complex terrain model. Because historical meteorological data necessary for a complex terrain model were lacking, meteorological instruments were installed, and relevant data were collected for 1 yr. Monthly average dispersion and deposition factors were calculated using the complex terrain model, CALPUFF. Radionuclide concentrations in air and deposition on ground were calculated by multiplying the estimated source-specific release rate by the dispersion or deposition factor. Time-dependent resuspension was also included in the model. Predicted concentrations in air and soil were compared to measurements from continuous air samplers from 1979 to 1986 and to soil profile sampling performed in 2006. The geometric mean predicted-to-observed ratio for annual average air concentrations was 1.25 with a geometric standard deviation of 1.8. Predicted-to-observed ratios for uranium concentrations in undisturbed soil ranged from 0.67 to 1.22. Average air concentrations from 1936 to 1984 in housing blocks ranged from about 2.5 to 6 mBq m(-3) for (238)U and 1.5 to 3.5 mBq m(-3) for (230)Th, (226)Ra, and (210)Pb.

Red Bone Marrow and Male Breast Doses for a Cohort of Atomic Veterans.

Both red bone marrow and male breast doses with associated uncertainty have been reconstructed for a 1,982-person subset of a cohort of 114, 270 military personnel (referred to as "atomic veterans") who participated in U.S. atmospheric nuclear weapons testing from 1945 to 1962. The methods used to calculate these doses and corresponding uncertainty have been reported in detail by Till et al. in an earlier publication. In this current article we report the final results of those calculations. These doses are being used in a case-cohort design epidemiological investigation of leukemia and male breast cancer. This cohort of atomic veterans is one component in a broader-scope study of approximately one million U.S. persons designed to investigate risk from chronic low-dose radiation exposure. Doses to the atomic veterans in this sub-cohort were relatively low, with approximately two-thirds receiving red bone marrow doses <5 mGy and only four individuals receiving a red bone marrow dose >50 mGy. The average red bone marrow dose for members of the sub-cohort was 5.9 mGy. Doses to male breast were approximately 20% higher than red bone marrow doses. The uncertainty in the estimated doses was relatively low, considering relevant personnel dosimetry was available for only about 25% of the subjects, and most of the doses were reconstructed from film badges worn by co-workers or from the individual's military record and military unit activities. The average coefficient of variation for the individual dose estimates was approximately 0.5, comparable to the uncertainty in doses estimated for the Japanese A-bomb survivors. Although the reconstructed red bone marrow doses were about 36% lower on average than the conservative doses previously estimated by the military for compensation, the overall correlation was quite good, suggesting that the estimates of doses from external exposure by the military for all ∼115,000 cohort members could be adjusted appropriately and used in further epidemiological analyses.

Childhood thyroid cancer, radiation dose from Chernobyl, and dose uncertainties in Bryansk Oblast, Russia: a population-based case-control study.

A population-based case-control study was conducted to estimate the radiation-related risk of thyroid cancer in persons who were exposed in childhood to (131)I from the Chernobyl accident of April 26, 1986 and to investigate the impact of uncertainties in individual dose estimates. Included were all 66 confirmed cases of primary thyroid cancer diagnosed from April 26, 1986 through September 1998 in residents of Bryansk Oblast, Russia, who were 0-19 years old at the time of the accident, along with two individually matched controls for each case. Thyroid radiation doses, estimated using a semi-empirical model based on environmental contamination data and individual characteristics, ranged from 0.00014 Gy to 2.73 Gy and had large uncertainties (median geometric standard deviation 2.2). The estimated excess relative risk (ERR) associated with radiation exposure, 48.7/Gy, was significantly greater than 0 (P = 0.00013) but had an extremely wide 95% confidence interval (4.8 to 1151/Gy). Adjusting for dose uncertainty nearly tripled the ERR to 138/Gy, although this was likely an overestimate due to limitations in the modeling of dose uncertainties. The radiation-related excess risk observed in this study is quite large, especially if the uncertainty of dose estimation is taken into account, but is not inconsistent with estimates previously reported for risk after (131)I exposure or acute irradiation from external sources.

Individual thyroid dose estimates for a case-control study of chernobyl-related thyroid cancer among children of Belarus--part II. Contributions from long-lived radionuclides and external radiation.

Significant quantities of long-lived radionuclides were released to the environment during the Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident in 1986. These radionuclides contributed to radiation doses due to ingestion of contaminated foods and external exposure from the ground deposition that resulted. The contributions of these exposure pathways to thyroid doses received by subjects of an epidemiologic study of children from Belarus are evaluated and presented. The analysis shows that ingestion of the long-lived radionuclides, primarily radiocesium, typically contributed a small percentage of the total thyroid dose received by the study subjects. The median and mean fractional contributions were 0.76 and 0.95%, respectively. The contribution of external exposure to the thyroid dose was generally larger and more variable, with median and mean contributions of 1.2 and 1.8% of the total thyroid doses, respectively. For regions close to the reactor site, where radionuclide deposition was highest, the contributions of radiocesium ingestion and external exposure were generally lower than those of the short-lived radioiodine isotopes (132I and 133I) and their precursors (132Te). In other areas, the contributions of these two pathways were comparable to those of the short-lived radioiodines. For all subjects, intakes of 131I were the primary source of dose to the thyroid.

Thyroid Dose Estimates for a Cohort of Belarusian Children Exposed to (131)I from the Chernobyl Accident: Assessment of Uncertainties.

Deterministic thyroid radiation doses due to iodine-131 ((131)I) intake were reconstructed in a previous article for 11,732 participants of the Belarusian-American cohort study of thyroid cancer and other thyroid diseases in individuals exposed during childhood or adolescence to fallout from the Chernobyl accident. The current article describes an assessment of uncertainties in reconstructed thyroid doses that accounts for the shared and unshared errors. Using a Monte Carlo simulation procedure, 1,000 sets of cohort thyroid doses due to (131)I intake were calculated. The arithmetic mean of the stochastic thyroid doses for the entire cohort was 0.68 Gy. For two-thirds of the cohort the arithmetic mean of individual stochastic thyroid doses was less than 0.5 Gy. The geometric standard deviation of stochastic doses varied among cohort members from 1.33 to 5.12 with an arithmetic mean of 1.76 and a geometric mean of 1.73. The uncertainties in thyroid dose were driven by the unshared errors associated with the estimates of values of thyroid mass and of the (131)I activity in the thyroid of the subject; the contribution of shared errors to the overall uncertainty was small. These multiple sets of cohort thyroid doses will be used to evaluate the radiation risks of thyroid cancer and noncancer thyroid diseases, taking into account the structure of the errors in the dose estimates.

Dosimetry Support of the Ukrainian-American Case-control Study of Leukemia and Related Disorders Among Chornobyl Cleanup Workers.

This paper describes dose reconstruction for a joint Ukrainian-American case-control study of leukemia that was conducted in a cohort of 110,645 male Ukrainian cleanup workers of the Chornobyl (Chernobyl) accident who were exposed to various radiation doses over the 1986-1990 time period. Individual bone-marrow doses due to external irradiation along with respective uncertainty distributions were calculated for 1,000 study subjects using the RADRUE method, which employed personal cleanup history data collected in the course of an interview with the subject himself if he was alive or with two proxies if he was deceased. The central estimates of the bone-marrow dose distributions range from 3.7 × 10(-5) to 3,260 mGy, with an arithmetic mean of 92 mGy. The uncertainties in the individual stochastic dose estimates can be approximated by lognormal distributions; the average geometric standard deviation is 2.0.

Risk of thyroid cancer in the Bryansk Oblast of the Russian Federation after the Chernobyl Power Station accident.

This population-based case-control study investigated whether exposure to radiation from the Chernobyl Power Station accident is associated with an increased risk of thyroid cancer in children and adolescents aged 0-19 years at the time of the accident who were residing in the more highly contaminated areas of the Bryansk Oblast. Cases were diagnosed with thyroid cancer before October 1, 1997 (n = 26); two controls per case were identified from the Russian State Medical Dosimetrical Registry and were matched by gender, birth year, and raion of residence and type of settlement (urban, town, rural) on April 26, 1986 (n = 52). Individual radiation doses to the thyroid were estimated using a semi-empirical model and data were collected in interviews, primarily of the participants' mothers. Based on a loglinear dose-response model treating estimated dose as a continuous variable, the trend of increasing risk with increasing dose was statistically significant (one-sided P = 0.009). These data suggest that exposure to radiation from Chernobyl is associated with an increased risk of thyroid cancer, and that the relationship is dependent on dose. These findings are consistent with descriptive reports from contaminated areas of Ukraine and Belarus, and the quantitative estimate of thyroid cancer risk is generally consistent with estimates from other radiation-exposed populations.

A cohort study of thyroid cancer and other thyroid diseases after the Chornobyl accident: objectives, design and methods.

The thyroid gland in children is one of the organs that is most sensitive to external exposure to X and gamma rays. However, data on the risk of thyroid cancer in children after exposure to radioactive iodines are sparse. The Chornobyl accident in Ukraine in 1986 led to the exposure of large populations to radioactive iodines, particularly (131)I. This paper describes an ongoing cohort study being conducted in Belarus and Ukraine that includes 25,161 subjects under the age of 18 years in 1986 who are being screened for thyroid diseases every 2 years. Individual thyroid doses are being estimated for all study subjects based on measurement of the radioactivity of the thyroid gland made in 1986 together with a radioecological model and interview data. Approximately 100 histologically confirmed thyroid cancers were detected as a consequence of the first round of screening. The data will enable fitting appropriate dose-response models, which are important in both radiation epidemiology and public health for prediction of risks from exposure to radioactive iodines from medical sources and any future nuclear accidents. Plans are to continue to follow-up the cohort for at least three screening cycles, which will lead to more precise estimates of risk.

Risks to the public from historical releases of radionuclides and chemicals at the Rocky Flats Environmental Technology Site.

This paper summarizes the methods and results of estimating risks of cancer incidence resulting from plutonium, carbon tetrachloride, and beryllium releases from operations at the Rocky Flats Environmental Technology Site, near Denver, Colorado, from 1953 through 1989. The key findings show that people who lived near the facility were exposed to plutonium mainly through inhalation during routine operations, from a major fire in 1957, and from plutonium resuspended from contaminated soil from an outdoor drum storage area, called the 903 Area. Results were presented for five exposure scenarios that were location-independent. Individuals described by the laborer scenario received the highest risk of all scenarios considered. Upper bound (95th percentile) incremental lifetime cancer incidence risks for the laborer scenario were in about the 10(-4) range (1 chance in 10,000) for developing cancer from Rocky Flats plutonium releases during a lifetime. At the 5th percentile level, the maximum cancer risk was about 10(-7) (1 chance in 10 million) for developing cancer during a lifetime. Estimated cancer risks at the 95th percentile level are within the range of for acceptable risks established by the US Environmental Protection Agency of 10(-6) to 10(-4). Carbon tetrachloride was found to be the chemical that presented the highest risk to the public. The 5th and 95th percentile risk values for exposure to carbon tetrachloride were 9.2x10(-7) and 2.5x10(-5), respectively.

Individual thyroid dose estimation for a case-control study of Chernobyl-related thyroid cancer among children of Belarus-part I: 131I, short-lived radioiodines (132I, 133I, 135I), and short-lived radiotelluriums (131MTe and 132Te).

Large amounts of radioiodines were released into the atmosphere during the accident at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant on 26 April 1986. In order to investigate whether the thyroid cancers observed among children in Belarus could have been caused by radiation exposures from the Chernobyl accident, a team of Belarusian, Russian, and American scientists conducted a case-control study to compare cases and controls according to estimated thyroid dose. The primary purpose of this paper is to present detailed information on the estimated thyroid doses, due to intakes of 131I, that were used in the case-control study. The range of the 131I thyroid doses among the 107 cases and the 214 controls was found to extend from 0.00002 to 4.3 Gy, with medians of approximately 0.2 Gy for the cases and 0.07 Gy for the controls. In addition, the thyroid doses resulting from the intakes of short-lived radioiodines (132I, 133I, and 135I) and radiotelluriums (131mTe and 132Te) were estimated and compared to the doses from 131I. The ratios of the estimated thyroid doses from the short-lived radionuclides and from I for the cases and the controls range from 0.003 to 0.1, with median values of approximately 0.02 for both cases and controls.

Thyroid cancer study among Ukrainian children exposed to radiation after the Chornobyl accident: improved estimates of the thyroid doses to the cohort members.

In collaboration with the Ukrainian Research Center for Radiation Medicine, the U.S. National Cancer Institute initiated a cohort study of children and adolescents exposed to Chornobyl fallout in Ukraine to better understand the long-term health effects of exposure to radioactive iodines. All 13,204 cohort members were subjected to at least one direct thyroid measurement between 30 April and 30 June 1986 and resided at the time of the accident in the northern parts of Kyiv, Zhytomyr, or Chernihiv Oblasts, which were the most contaminated territories of Ukraine as a result of radioactive fallout from the Chornobyl accident. Thyroid doses for the cohort members, which had been estimated following the first round of interviews, were re-evaluated following the second round of interviews. The revised thyroid doses range from 0.35 mGy to 42 Gy, with 95% of the doses between 1 mGy and 4.2 Gy, an arithmetic mean of 0.65 Gy, and a geometric mean of 0.19 Gy. These means are 70% of the previous estimates, mainly because of the use of country-specific thyroid masses. Many of the individual thyroid dose estimates show substantial differences because of the use of an improved questionnaire for the second round of interviews. Limitations of the current set of thyroid dose estimates are discussed. For the epidemiologic study, the most notable improvement is a revised assessment of the uncertainties, as shared and unshared uncertainties in the parameter values were considered in the calculation of the 1,000 stochastic estimates of thyroid dose for each cohort member. This procedure makes it possible to perform a more realistic risk analysis.

Military participants at U.S. Atmospheric nuclear weapons testing--methodology for estimating dose and uncertainty.

Methods were developed to calculate individual estimates of exposure and dose with associated uncertainties for a sub-cohort (1,857) of 115,329 military veterans who participated in at least one of seven series of atmospheric nuclear weapons tests or the TRINITY shot carried out by the United States. The tests were conducted at the Pacific Proving Grounds and the Nevada Test Site. Dose estimates to specific organs will be used in an epidemiological study to investigate leukemia and male breast cancer. Previous doses had been estimated for the purpose of compensation and were generally high-sided to favor the veteran's claim for compensation in accordance with public law. Recent efforts by the U.S. Department of Defense (DOD) to digitize the historical records supporting the veterans' compensation assessments make it possible to calculate doses and associated uncertainties. Our approach builds upon available film badge dosimetry and other measurement data recorded at the time of the tests and incorporates detailed scenarios of exposure for each veteran based on personal, unit, and other available historical records. Film badge results were available for approximately 25% of the individuals, and these results assisted greatly in reconstructing doses to unbadged persons and in developing distributions of dose among military units. This article presents the methodology developed to estimate doses for selected cancer cases and a 1% random sample of the total cohort of veterans under study.