Strategies to investigate and mitigate collider bias in genetic and Mendelian randomisation studies of disease progression.

Genetic studies of disease progression can be used to identify factors that may influence survival or prognosis, which may differ from factors that influence on disease susceptibility. Studies of disease progression feed directly into therapeutics for disease, whereas studies of incidence inform prevention strategies. However, studies of disease progression are known to be affected by collider (also known as "index event") bias since the disease progression phenotype can only be observed for individuals who have the disease. This applies equally to observational and genetic studies, including genome-wide association studies and Mendelian randomisation (MR) analyses. In this paper, our aim is to review several statistical methods that can be used to detect and adjust for index event bias in studies of disease progression, and how they apply to genetic and MR studies using both individual- and summary-level data. Methods to detect the presence of index event bias include the use of negative controls, a comparison of associations between risk factors for incidence in individuals with and without the disease, and an inspection of Miami plots. Methods to adjust for the bias include inverse probability weighting (with individual-level data), or Slope-Hunter and Dudbridge et al.'s index event bias adjustment (when only summary-level data are available). We also outline two approaches for sensitivity analysis. We then illustrate how three methods to minimise bias can be used in practice with two applied examples. Our first example investigates the effects of blood lipid traits on mortality from coronary heart disease, while our second example investigates genetic associations with breast cancer mortality.

Effectiveness of mRNA COVID-19 Vaccines as First Booster Doses in England: An Observational Study in OpenSAFELY-TPP.

BACKGROUND: The UK delivered its first "booster" COVID-19 vaccine doses in September 2021, initially to individuals at high risk of severe disease, then to all adults. The BNT162b2 Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine was used initially, then also Moderna mRNA-1273. METHODS: With the approval of the National Health Service England, we used routine clinical data to estimate the effectiveness of boosting with BNT162b2 or mRNA-1273 compared with no boosting in eligible adults who had received two primary course vaccine doses. We matched each booster recipient with an unboosted control on factors relating to booster priority status and prior COVID-19 immunization. We adjusted for additional factors in Cox models, estimating hazard ratios up to 182 days (6 months) following booster dose. We estimated hazard ratios overall and within the following periods: 1-14, 15-42, 43-69, 70-97, 98-126, 127-152, and 155-182 days. Outcomes included a positive SARS-CoV-2 test, COVID-19 hospitalization, COVID-19 death, non-COVID-19 death, and fracture. RESULTS: We matched 8,198,643 booster recipients with unboosted controls. Adjusted hazard ratios over 6-month follow-up were: positive SARS-CoV-2 test 0.75 (0.74, 0.75); COVID-19 hospitalization 0.30 (0.29, 0.31); COVID-19 death 0.11 (0.10, 0.14); non-COVID-19 death 0.22 (0.21, 0.23); and fracture 0.77 (0.75, 0.78). Estimated effectiveness of booster vaccines against severe COVID-19-related outcomes peaked during the first 3 months following the booster dose. By 6 months, the cumulative incidence of positive SARS-CoV-2 test was higher in boosted than unboosted individuals. CONCLUSIONS: We estimate that COVID-19 booster vaccination, compared with no booster vaccination, provided substantial protection against COVID-19 hospitalization and COVID-19 death but only limited protection against positive SARS-CoV-2 test. Lower rates of fracture in boosted than unboosted individuals may suggest unmeasured confounding. Observational studies should report estimated vaccine effectiveness against nontarget and negative control outcomes.

Separating the direct effects of traits on atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease from those mediated by type 2 diabetes.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Type 2 diabetes and atherosclerotic CVD share many risk factors. This study aimed to systematically assess a broad range of continuous traits to separate their direct effects on coronary and peripheral artery disease from those mediated by type 2 diabetes. METHODS: Our main analysis was a two-step Mendelian randomisation for mediation to quantify the extent to which the associations observed between continuous traits and liability to atherosclerotic CVD were mediated by liability to type 2 diabetes. To support this analysis, we performed several univariate Mendelian randomisation analyses to examine the associations between our continuous traits, liability to type 2 diabetes and liability to atherosclerotic CVD. RESULTS: Eight traits were eligible for the two-step Mendelian randomisation with liability to coronary artery disease as the outcome and we found similar direct and total effects in most cases. Exceptions included fasting insulin and hip circumference where the proportion mediated by liability to type 2 diabetes was estimated as 56% and 52%, respectively. Six traits were eligible for the analysis with liability to peripheral artery disease as the outcome. Again, we found limited evidence to support mediation by liability to type 2 diabetes for all traits apart from fasting insulin (proportion mediated: 70%). CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Most traits were found to affect liability to atherosclerotic CVD independently of their relationship with liability to type 2 diabetes. These traits are therefore important for understanding atherosclerotic CVD risk regardless of an individual's liability to type 2 diabetes.

Prioritizing the Role of Major Lipoproteins and Subfractions as Risk Factors for Peripheral Artery Disease.

BACKGROUND: Lipoprotein-related traits have been consistently identified as risk factors for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, largely on the basis of studies of coronary artery disease (CAD). The relative contributions of specific lipoproteins to the risk of peripheral artery disease (PAD) have not been well defined. We leveraged large-scale genetic association data to investigate the effects of circulating lipoprotein-related traits on PAD risk. METHODS: Genome-wide association study summary statistics for circulating lipoprotein-related traits were used in the mendelian randomization bayesian model averaging framework to prioritize the most likely causal major lipoprotein and subfraction risk factors for PAD and CAD. Mendelian randomization was used to estimate the effect of apolipoprotein B (ApoB) lowering on PAD risk using gene regions proxying lipid-lowering drug targets. Genes relevant to prioritized lipoprotein subfractions were identified with transcriptome-wide association studies. RESULTS: ApoB was identified as the most likely causal lipoprotein-related risk factor for both PAD (marginal inclusion probability, 0.86; P=0.003) and CAD (marginal inclusion probability, 0.92; P=0.005). Genetic proxies for ApoB-lowering medications were associated with reduced risk of both PAD (odds ratio,0.87 per 1-SD decrease in ApoB [95% CI, 0.84-0.91]; P=9×10-10) and CAD (odds ratio,0.66 [95% CI, 0.63-0.69]; P=4×10-73), with a stronger predicted effect of ApoB lowering on CAD (ratio of effects, 3.09 [95% CI, 2.29-4.60]; P<1×10-6). Extra-small very-low-density lipoprotein particle concentration was identified as the most likely subfraction associated with PAD risk (marginal inclusion probability, 0.91; P=2.3×10-4), whereas large low-density lipoprotein particle concentration was the most likely subfraction associated with CAD risk (marginal inclusion probability, 0.95; P=0.011). Genes associated with extra-small very-low-density lipoprotein particle and large low-density lipoprotein particle concentration included canonical ApoB pathway components, although gene-specific effects were variable. Lipoprotein(a) was associated with increased risk of PAD independently of ApoB (odds ratio, 1.04 [95% CI, 1.03-1.04]; P=1.0×10-33). CONCLUSIONS: ApoB was prioritized as the major lipoprotein fraction causally responsible for both PAD and CAD risk. However, ApoB-lowering drug targets and ApoB-containing lipoprotein subfractions had diverse associations with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, and distinct subfraction-associated genes suggest possible differences in the role of lipoproteins in the pathogenesis of PAD and CAD.

Genetically proxied therapeutic inhibition of antihypertensive drug targets and risk of common cancers: A mendelian randomization analysis.

BACKGROUND: Epidemiological studies have reported conflicting findings on the potential adverse effects of long-term antihypertensive medication use on cancer risk. Naturally occurring variation in genes encoding antihypertensive drug targets can be used as proxies for these targets to examine the effect of their long-term therapeutic inhibition on disease outcomes. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We performed a mendelian randomization analysis to examine the association between genetically proxied inhibition of 3 antihypertensive drug targets and risk of 4 common cancers (breast, colorectal, lung, and prostate). Single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in ACE, ADRB1, and SLC12A3 associated (P < 5.0 × 10-8) with systolic blood pressure (SBP) in genome-wide association studies (GWAS) were used to proxy inhibition of angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE), ß-1 adrenergic receptor (ADRB1), and sodium-chloride symporter (NCC), respectively. Summary genetic association estimates for these SNPs were obtained from GWAS consortia for the following cancers: breast (122,977 cases, 105,974 controls), colorectal (58,221 cases, 67,694 controls), lung (29,266 cases, 56,450 controls), and prostate (79,148 cases, 61,106 controls). Replication analyses were performed in the FinnGen consortium (1,573 colorectal cancer cases, 120,006 controls). Cancer GWAS and FinnGen consortia data were restricted to individuals of European ancestry. Inverse-variance weighted random-effects models were used to examine associations between genetically proxied inhibition of these drug targets and risk of cancer. Multivariable mendelian randomization and colocalization analyses were employed to examine robustness of findings to violations of mendelian randomization assumptions. Genetically proxied ACE inhibition equivalent to a 1-mm Hg reduction in SBP was associated with increased odds of colorectal cancer (odds ratio (OR) 1.13, 95% CI 1.06 to 1.22; P = 3.6 × 10-4). This finding was replicated in the FinnGen consortium (OR 1.40, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.92; P = 0.035). There was little evidence of association of genetically proxied ACE inhibition with risk of breast cancer (OR 0.98, 95% CI 0.94 to 1.02, P = 0.35), lung cancer (OR 1.01, 95% CI 0.92 to 1.10; P = 0.93), or prostate cancer (OR 1.06, 95% CI 0.99 to 1.13; P = 0.08). Genetically proxied inhibition of ADRB1 and NCC were not associated with risk of these cancers. The primary limitations of this analysis include the modest statistical power for analyses of drug targets in relation to some less common histological subtypes of cancers examined and the restriction of the majority of analyses to participants of European ancestry. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, we observed that genetically proxied long-term ACE inhibition was associated with an increased risk of colorectal cancer, warranting comprehensive evaluation of the safety profiles of ACE inhibitors in clinical trials with adequate follow-up. There was little evidence to support associations across other drug target-cancer risk analyses, consistent with findings from short-term randomized controlled trials for these medications.

Association Between Genetic Variation in Blood Pressure and Increased Lifetime Risk of Peripheral Artery Disease.

[Figure: see text].

Comparison of Antihypertensive Drug Classes for Dementia Prevention.

BACKGROUND: Hypertension in midlife is associated with increased risk of Alzheimer disease and vascular dementia late in life. In addition, some antihypertensive drugs have been proposed to have cognitive benefits, independent of their effect on hypertension. Consequently, there is potential to repurpose antihypertensive drugs for the prevention of dementia. This study systematically compared seven antihypertensive drug classes for this purpose, using the Clinical Practice Research Datalink. METHODS: We assessed treatments for hypertension in an instrumental variable analysis to address potential confounding and reverse causation. We used physicians' prescribing preference as an ordinal instrument, defined by the physicians' last seven prescriptions. Participants considered were new antihypertensive users between 1996 and 2016, aged 40 and over. RESULTS: We analyzed 849,378 patients, with total follow up of 5,497,266 patient-years. We estimated that ß-adrenoceptor blockers and vasodilator antihypertensives conferred small protective effects-for example, ß-adrenoceptor blockers were associated with 13 (95% confidence interval = 6, 20) fewer cases of any dementia per 1000 treated compared with other antihypertensives. CONCLUSIONS: We estimated small differences in the effects of antihypertensive drug classes on dementia outcomes. We also show that the magnitude of the differences between drug classes is smaller than that previously reported. Future research should look to implement other causal analysis methods to address biases in conventional observational research, with the ultimate aim of triangulating the evidence concerning this hypothesis.

How to estimate heritability: a guide for genetic epidemiologists.

Traditionally, heritability has been estimated using family-based methods such as twin studies. Advancements in molecular genomics have facilitated the development of methods that use large samples of (unrelated or related) genotyped individuals. Here, we provide an overview of common methods applied in genetic epidemiology to estimate heritability, i.e. the proportion of phenotypic variation explained by genetic variation. We provide a guide to key genetic concepts required to understand heritability estimation methods from family-based designs (twin and family studies), genomic designs based on unrelated individuals [linkage disequilibrium score regression, genomic relatedness restricted maximum-likelihood (GREML) estimation] and family-based genomic designs (sibling regression, GREML-kinship, trio-genome-wide complex trait analysis, maternal-genome-wide complex trait analysis, relatedness disequilibrium regression). We describe how heritability is estimated for each method and the assumptions underlying its estimation, and discuss the implications when these assumptions are not met. We further discuss the benefits and limitations of estimating heritability within samples of unrelated individuals compared with samples of related individuals. Overall, this article is intended to help the reader determine the circumstances when each method would be appropriate and why.

A genetically supported drug repurposing pipeline for diabetes treatment using electronic health records.

BACKGROUND: The identification of new uses for existing drug therapies has the potential to identify treatments for comorbid conditions that have the added benefit of glycemic control while also providing a rapid, low-cost approach to drug (re)discovery. METHODS: We developed and tested a genetically-informed drug-repurposing pipeline for diabetes management. This approach mapped genetically-predicted gene expression signals from the largest genome-wide association study for type 2 diabetes mellitus to drug targets using publicly available databases to identify drug-gene pairs. These drug-gene pairs were then validated using a two-step approach: 1) a self-controlled case-series (SCCS) using electronic health records from a discovery and replication population, and 2) Mendelian randomization (MR). FINDINGS: After filtering on sample size, 20 candidate drug-gene pairs were validated and various medications demonstrated evidence of glycemic regulation including two anti-hypertensive classes: angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors as well as calcium channel blockers (CCBs). The CCBs demonstrated the strongest evidence of glycemic reduction in both validation approaches (SCCS HbA1c and glucose reduction: -0.11%, p = 0.01 and -0.85 mg/dL, p = 0.02, respectively; MR: OR = 0.84, 95% CI = 0.81, 0.87, p = 5.0 x 10-25). INTERPRETATION: Our results support CCBs as a strong candidate medication for blood glucose reduction in addition to cardiovascular disease reduction. Further, these results support the adaptation of this approach for use in future drug-repurposing efforts for other conditions. FUNDING: National Institutes of Health, Medical Research Council Integrative Epidemiology Unit at the University of Bristol, UK Medical Research Council, American Heart Association, and Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) Informatics and Computing Infrastructure and VA Cooperative Studies Program.

Phenotypic Causal Inference Using Genome-Wide Association Study Data: Mendelian Randomization and Beyond.

statistics for genome-wide association studies (GWAS) are increasingly available for downstream analyses. Meanwhile, the popularity of causal inference methods has grown as we look to gather robust evidence for novel medical and public health interventions. This has led to the development of methods that use GWAS summary statistics for causal inference. Here, we describe these methods in order of their escalating complexity, from genetic associations to extensions of Mendelian randomization that consider thousands of phenotypes simultaneously. We also cover the assumptions and limitations of these approaches before considering the challenges faced by researchers performing causal inference using GWAS data. GWAS summary statistics constitute an important data source for causal inference research that offers a counterpoint to nongenetic methods when triangulating evidence. Continued efforts to address the challenges in using GWAS data for causal inference will allow the full impact of these approaches to be realized.

Little genomic support for Cyclophilin A-matrix metalloproteinase-9 pathway as a therapeutic target for cognitive impairment in APOE4 carriers.

Therapeutic targets for halting the progression of Alzheimer's disease pathology are lacking. Recent evidence suggests that APOE4, but not APOE3, activates the Cyclophilin-A matrix metalloproteinase-9 (CypA-MMP9) pathway, leading to an accelerated breakdown of the blood-brain barrier (BBB) and thereby causing neuronal and synaptic dysfunction. Furthermore, blockade of the CypA-MMP9 pathway in APOE4 knock-in mice restores BBB integrity and subsequently normalizes neuronal and synaptic function. Thus, CypA has been suggested as a potential target for treating APOE4 mediated neurovascular injury and the resulting neuronal dysfunction and degeneration. The odds of drug targets passing through clinical trials are greatly increased if they are supported by genomic evidence. We found little evidence to suggest that CypA or MMP9 affects the risk of Alzheimer's disease or cognitive impairment using two-sample Mendelian randomization and polygenic risk score analysis in humans. This casts doubt on whether they are likely to represent effective drug targets for cognitive impairment in human APOE4 carriers.

Using Mendelian randomisation to identify opportunities for type 2 diabetes prevention by repurposing medications used for lipid management.

BACKGROUND: Maintaining a healthy lifestyle to reduce type 2 diabetes (T2D) risk is challenging and additional strategies for T2D prevention are needed. We evaluated several lipid control medications as potential therapeutic options for T2D prevention using tissue-specific predicted gene expression summary statistics in a two-sample Mendelian randomisation (MR) design. METHODS: Large-scale European genome-wide summary statistics for lipids and T2D were leveraged in our multi-stage analysis to estimate changes in either lipid levels or T2D risk driven by tissue-specific predicted gene expression. We incorporated tissue-specific predicted gene expression summary statistics to proxy therapeutic effects of three lipid control medications [i.e., statins, icosapent ethyl (IPE), and proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type-9 inhibitors (PCSK-9i)] on T2D susceptibility using two-sample Mendelian randomisation (MR). FINDINGS: IPE, as proxied via increased FADS1 expression, was predicted to lower triglycerides and was associated with a 53% reduced risk of T2D. Statins and PCSK-9i, as proxied by reduced HMGCR and PCSK9 expression, respectively, were predicted to lower LDL-C levels but were not associated with T2D susceptibility. INTERPRETATION: Triglyceride lowering via IPE may reduce the risk of developing T2D in populations of European ancestry. However, experimental validation using animal models is needed to substantiate our results and to motivate randomized control trials (RCTs) for IPE as putative treatment for T2D prevention. FUNDING: Only summary statistics were used in this analysis. Funding information is detailed under Acknowledgments.

Genetically Predicted Blood Pressure and Risk of Atrial Fibrillation.

Observational studies have shown an association between hypertension and atrial fibrillation (AF). Aggressive blood pressure management in patients with known AF reduces overall arrhythmia burden, but it remains unclear whether hypertension is causative for AF. To address this question, this study explored the relationship between genetic predictors of blood pressure and risk of AF. We secondarily explored the relationship between genetically proxied use of antihypertensive drugs and risk of AF. Two-sample Mendelian randomization was performed using an inverse-variance weighted meta-analysis with weighted median Mendelian randomization and Egger intercept tests performed as sensitivity analyses. Summary statistics for systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, and pulse pressure were obtained from the International Consortium of Blood Pressure and the UK Biobank discovery analysis and AF from the 2018 Atrial Fibrillation Genetics Consortium multiethnic genome-wide association studies. Increases in genetically proxied systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, or pulse pressure by 10 mm Hg were associated with increased odds of AF (systolic blood pressure: odds ratio [OR], 1.17 [95% CI, 1.11-1.22]; P=1×10-11; diastolic blood pressure: OR, 1.25 [95% CI, 1.16-1.35]; P=3×10-8; pulse pressure: OR, 1.1 [95% CI, 1.0-1.2]; P=0.05). Decreases in systolic blood pressure by 10 mm Hg estimated by genetic proxies of antihypertensive medications showed calcium channel blockers (OR, 0.66 [95% CI, 0.57-0.76]; P=8×10-9) and ß-blockers (OR, 0.61 [95% CI, 0.46-0.81]; P=6×10-4) decreased the risk of AF. Blood pressure-increasing genetic variants were associated with increased risk of AF, consistent with a causal relationship between blood pressure and AF. These data support the concept that blood pressure reduction with calcium channel blockade or ß-blockade could reduce the risk of AF.

Mendelian randomization for studying the effects of perturbing drug targets.

Drugs whose targets have genetic evidence to support efficacy and safety are more likely to be approved after clinical development. In this paper, we provide an overview of how natural sequence variation in the genes that encode drug targets can be used in Mendelian randomization analyses to offer insight into mechanism-based efficacy and adverse effects. Large databases of summary level genetic association data are increasingly available and can be leveraged to identify and validate variants that serve as proxies for drug target perturbation. As with all empirical research, Mendelian randomization has limitations including genetic confounding, its consideration of lifelong effects, and issues related to heterogeneity across different tissues and populations. When appropriately applied, Mendelian randomization provides a useful empirical framework for using population level data to improve the success rates of the drug development pipeline.

Repurposing antihypertensive drugs for the prevention of Alzheimer's disease: a Mendelian randomization study.

BACKGROUND: Evidence concerning the potential repurposing of antihypertensives for Alzheimer's disease prevention is inconclusive. We used Mendelian randomization, which can be more robust to confounding by indication and patient characteristics, to investigate the effects of lowering systolic blood pressure, via the protein targets of different antihypertensive drug classes, on Alzheimer's disease. METHODS: We used summary statistics from genome-wide association studies of systolic blood pressure and Alzheimer's disease in a two-sample Mendelian randomization analysis. We identified single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that mimic the action of antihypertensive protein targets and estimated the effect of lowering systolic blood pressure on Alzheimer's disease in three ways: (i) combining the protein targets of antihypertensive drug classes, (ii) combining all protein targets and (iii) without consideration of the protein targets. RESULTS: There was limited evidence that lowering systolic blood pressure, via the protein targets of antihypertensive drug classes, affected Alzheimer's disease risk. For example, the protein targets of calcium channel blockers had an odds ratio (OR) per 10 mmHg lower systolic blood pressure of 1.53 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.94 to 2.49; p = 0.09; SNPs = 17]. We also found limited evidence for an effect when combining all protein targets (OR per 10 mmHg lower systolic blood pressure: 1.14; 95% CI: 0.83 to 1.56; p = 0.41; SNPs = 59) and without consideration of the protein targets (OR per 10 mmHg lower systolic blood pressure: 1.04; 95% CI: 0.95 to 1.13; p = 0.45; SNPs = 153). CONCLUSIONS: Mendelian randomization suggests that lowering systolic blood pressure via the protein targets of antihypertensive drugs is unlikely to affect the risk of developing Alzheimer's disease. Consequently, if specific antihypertensive drug classes do affect the risk of Alzheimer's disease, they may not do so via systolic blood pressure.

Using the MR-Base platform to investigate risk factors and drug targets for thousands of phenotypes.

Mendelian randomization (MR) estimates the causal effect of exposures on outcomes by exploiting genetic variation to address confounding and reverse causation. This method has a broad range of applications, including investigating risk factors and appraising potential targets for intervention. MR-Base has become established as a freely accessible, online platform, which combines a database of complete genome-wide association study results with an interface for performing Mendelian randomization and sensitivity analyses. This allows the user to explore millions of potentially causal associations. MR-Base is available as a web application or as an R package. The technical aspects of the tool have previously been documented in the literature. The present article is complementary to this as it focuses on the applied aspects. Specifically, we describe how MR-Base can be used in several ways, including to perform novel causal analyses, replicate results and enable transparency, amongst others. We also present three use cases, which demonstrate important applications of Mendelian randomization and highlight the benefits of using MR-Base for these types of analyses.

What is the impact of regulatory guidance and expiry of drug patents on dementia drug prescriptions in England? A trend analysis in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink.

BACKGROUND: Drugs for dementia have been available in England since 1997. Since their launch, there have been several changes to national guidelines and initiatives that may have influenced prescribing. These include changes in National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) guidance, several government dementia strategies, the addition of dementia to the Quality and Outcomes Framework (QOF), and the expiry of drug patents. Despite this, there has been little research into the effect of these events on prescribing. This paper examines prescribing trends in England using data from the U.K. Clinical Practice Research Datalink since the launch of drugs for dementia up to 1st January 2016. METHODS: We considered the monthly proportion of patients eligible for treatment, with a diagnosis of probable Alzheimer's disease, receiving their first prescription for each drug class-namely, acetylcholinesterase (AChE) inhibitors (donepezil, rivastigmine, galantamine) and N-methyl-D-aspartate (NMDA) receptor antagonists (memantine). Trend analysis using joinpoint models was then applied to identify up to two trend changes per treatment of interest. RESULTS: The overall trend was for increasing prescriptions in each drug class over the period in which they were studied. This was indicated by the average monthly percentage change, which was 6.0% (95% CI, - 6.4 to 19.9; June 1997 to December 2015) for AChE inhibitors and 15.4% (95% CI, - 77.1 to 480.9; January 2003 to December 2015) for NMDA receptor antagonists. Prescriptions of AChE inhibitors increased at the end of 2012, probably in response to the patent expiry of these drugs earlier that year. The Prime Minister's Dementia Challenge launched in May 2012 may also have contributed to the observed increase. However, neither this strategy nor patent expiry appeared to influence prescriptions of NMDA receptor antagonists. Instead trend changes in this drug class were driven by NICE guidance released in 2011 that allowed access to these drugs outside of clinical trials. CONCLUSIONS: Dementia drug prescribing does not always respond to factors such as regulatory guidance, recommendations, or patent expiry, and when it does, not necessarily in a predictable way. This suggests that communication with clinicians may need to be improved to use drugs for dementia more cost-effectively.

Mendelian randomization: a novel approach for the prediction of adverse drug events and drug repurposing opportunities.

Identification of unintended drug effects, specifically drug repurposing opportunities and adverse drug events, maximizes the benefit of a drug and protects the health of patients. However, current observational research methods are subject to several biases. These include confounding by indication, reverse causality and missing data. We propose that Mendelian randomization (MR) offers a novel approach for the prediction of unintended drug effects. In particular, we advocate the synthesis of evidence from this method and other approaches, in the spirit of triangulation, to improve causal inferences concerning drug effects. MR addresses some of the limitations associated with the existing methods in this field. Furthermore, it can be applied either before or after approval of the drug, and could therefore prevent the potentially harmful exposure of patients in clinical trials and beyond. The potential of MR as a pharmacovigilance and drug repurposing tool is yet to be realized, and could both help prevent adverse drug events and identify novel indications for existing drugs in the future.