The association between playing professional American football and longevity.

Recent research concludes that professional American football players (hereafter, "football players") live longer than American men in general, despite experiencing higher rates of chronic traumatic encephalopathy (CTE) and cardiovascular disease (CVD). This suggests that the longevity-enhancing benefits of playing football (e.g., physical fitness, money) outweigh the costs associated with CTE, CVD, and other longevity detriments of playing football. However, these surprising results may be the consequence of flawed research design. To investigate, we conducted two analyses. In analysis 1, we compared a) all professional American football players whose first season was 1986 or between 1988 and 1995 to b) a random sample of same-age American men observed as part of the National Health Interview Surveys in those same years selected on good health, at least 3 y of college, and not being poor. The exposure consists of playing one or more games of professional football; the outcome is risk of death within 25 y. In analysis 2, we use data on 1,365 men drafted to play in the (American) National Football League in the 1950s-906 of whom ultimately played professional football, and 459 of whom never played a game in any professional league. We estimate the association between playing football and survival through early 2023. In both analyses, we investigate differences between linemen and other position players. In contrast to most prior research, in both analyses, we find that linemen died earlier than otherwise similar men; men who played other positions died no earlier (or later).

Structural Bias in the Completeness of Death Investigations for Sudden Unexpected Infant Deaths (SUIDs).

OBJECTIVE: To assess sudden unexpected infant death (SUID) investigations for structural inequities by race/ethnicity and geography. METHODS: The SUID Case Registry compiles data on death investigations. We analyzed cases from 2015 to 2018 (N = 3847) to examine likelihood of an incomplete death investigation, defined as missing autopsy, missing scene investigation, or missing detailed information about where and how the body was found. We also analyzed which specific components of death investigations led to the greatest number of incomplete investigations. RESULTS: Twenty-four percent of SUIDs had incomplete death investigations. Death scenes in rural places had 1.51 times the odds of incomplete death investigations (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.19-1.92) compared with urban areas. Scene investigations led by law enforcement were more likely to result in incomplete death investigations (odds ratio [OR] = 1.49; 95% CI, 1.18-1.88) than those led by medical examiners. American Indian/Alaska Native SUIDs were more likely than other racial groups to have an incomplete investigation (OR = 1.49; 95% CI, 0.92-2.42), more likely to occur in rural places ( P = .055), and more likely to be investigated by law enforcement ( P < .001). If doll reenactments had been performed, 358 additional cases would have had complete investigations, and if SUID investigation forms had been performed, 243 additional cases would have had complete investigations. American Indian/Alaska Native SUIDs were also more likely to be missing specific components of death investigations. CONCLUSION: To produce equitable public health surveillance data used in prevention efforts, it is crucial to improve SUID investigations, especially in rural areas and among American Indian/Alaska Native babies.

Estimating the Long-Term Causal Effects of Attending Historically Black Colleges or Universities on Depressive Symptoms.

Racism is embedded in society, and higher education is an important structure for patterning economic and health outcomes. Historically Black Colleges and Universities (HBCUs) were founded on antiracism while predominantly White institutions (PWIs) were often founded on white supremacy. This contrast provides an opportunity to study the association between structural racism and health among Black Americans. We used the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health (Add Health) to estimate the long-term causal effect of attending an HBCU (vs. PWI) on depressive symptoms among Black students in the United States from 1994-2018. While we found no overall association with attending an HBCU (vs. PWI) on depressive symptoms, we found that this association varied by baseline mental health and region, and across time. For example, among those who attended high school outside of the South, HBCU attendance was protective against depressive symptoms 7 years later, and the association was strongest for those with higher baseline depressive symptoms. We recommend equitable state and federal funding for HBCUs, and that PWIs implement and evaluate antiracist policies to improve mental health of Black students.

Early life exposure to cigarette smoking and adult and old-age male mortality: Evidence from linked US full-count census and mortality data.

BACKGROUND: Smoking is a leading cause of premature death across contemporary developed nations, but few longitudinal individual-level studies have examined the long-term health consequences of exposure to smoking. OBJECTIVE: We examine the effect of fetal and infant exposure to exogenous variation in smoking, brought about by state-level cigarette taxation, on adulthood and old-age mortality (ages 55-73) among cohorts of boys born in the United States during the 1920s and 1930s. METHODS: We use state-of-the-art methods of record linkage to match 1930 and 1940 US full-count census records to death records, identifying early life exposure to the implementation of state-level cigarette taxes through contemporary sources. We examine a population of 2.4 million boys, estimating age at death by means of OLS regression, with post-stratification weights to account for linking selectivity. RESULTS: Fetal or infant exposure to the implementation of state cigarette taxation delayed mortality by about two months. Analyses further indicate heterogenous effects that are consistent with theoretical expectations; the largest benefits are enjoyed by individuals with parents who would have been affected most by the tax implementation. CONCLUSIONS: Despite living in an era of continuously increasing cigarette consumption, cohorts exposed to a reduction in cigarette smoking during early life enjoyed a later age at death. While it is not possible to comprehensively assess the treatment effect on the treated, the magnitude of the effect should not be underestimated, as it is larger than the difference between having parents belonging to the highest and lowest socioeconomic groups. CONTRIBUTION: The study provides the first estimates of long-run health effects from early life exposure to cigarette smoking.

Childhood Growth and Socioeconomic Outcomes in Early Adulthood Evidence from the Inter-War United States.

Childhood malnutrition and its later life effects were important concerns in European and North American social policy in the early twentieth century. However, there have been few studies of the long-term socioeconomic consequences of malnutrition in childhood. We use a unique longitudinal dataset to provide credible causal estimates of the effects of childhood nutrition on early-adult educational and employment outcomes. Our dataset includes 2,499 children in Saint Paul, Minnesota who were weighed and measured in a national children's health survey in 1918/1919 at 0-6 years of age. We observe those same people in the 1920, 1930 and 1940 U.S. censuses allowing us to measure childhood socioeconomic status (1920), adolescent school attendance (1930) and early-adult wages, and employment and educational attainment (1940). Examining variation between biological siblings, we are able to obtain credibly causal estimates of the relationship between childhood stature and weight and later life outcomes, largely canceling out the bias otherwise resulting from their joint correlation with genes and socioeconomic background. Because the initial survey located children within households, we identify the effect of differences in early childhood nutrition from differences between male siblings. Consistent with contemporary evidence from developing countries we find that being taller and heavier in early childhood is associated with better educational and labor market outcomes. Identifying all effects within families to control for socioeconomic background and family structure we find a standard deviation increase in BMI in early childhood was associated with a 3% increase in weekly earnings and that boys who were heavier for their age at the initial survey were 10% less likely to be unemployed in 1940. Taken together, these results confirm the importance of investments in early life health for later-life outcomes.

Long-Term Effects of Local-Area New Deal Work Relief in Childhood on Educational, Economic, and Health Outcomes Over the Life Course: Evidence From the Wisconsin Longitudinal Study.

The economic characteristics of one's childhood neighborhood have been found to determine long-term well-being. Policies enacted during childhood may change neighborhood trajectories and thus impact long-term outcomes for children. We use individual-level data from the Wisconsin Longitudinal Study to examine the enduring consequences of childhood exposure to local-area New Deal emergency employment work-relief activity. Our outcomes include adolescent cognition, educational attainment, midlife income, health behaviors, late-life cognition, and mortality. We find that children (ages 0-3) living in neighborhoods with moderate work-relief activity in 1940 had higher adolescent IQ scores, had higher class rank, and were more likely to obtain at least a bachelor's degree. We find enduring benefits for midlife income and late-life cognition for males who grew up in areas with a moderate amount of work relief. We find mixed results for males who grew up in the most disadvantaged areas with the highest levels of work-relief activity. These children had similar educational outcomes as those in the most advantaged districts with the lowest work-relief activity but had higher adult smoking rates. Our findings provide some of the first evidence of the long-term consequences of New Deal policies on children's long-term life course outcomes.

The importance of STEM: High school knowledge, skills and occupations in an era of growing inequality.

Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM) jobs have grown in importance in the labor market in recent decades, and they are widely seen as the jobs of the future. Using data from the U.S. Census and American Community Survey, we first investigate the role of employment in STEM occupations when it comes to recent changes in the occupational employment distribution in the U.S. labor market. Next, with data from the High School and Beyond sophomore cohort (Class of 1982) recent midlife follow-up, we investigate the importance of high school students' mathematics and science coursework, knowledge, and skills for midlife occupations. The Class of 1982 completed high school prior to technological changes altering the demand for labor. We find that individuals who took more advanced levels of high school mathematics coursework enjoyed occupations with a higher percentile rank in the average wage distribution and were more likely to hold STEM-related occupations. Findings suggest that the mathematics coursework enabled workers to adapt and navigate changing labor market demands.

Continuing Education and Stratification at Midlife.

We ask whether patterns of racial/ethnic and socioeconomic stratification in educational attainment are amplified or attenuated when we take a longer view of educational careers. We propose a model of staged advantage to understand how educational inequalities evolve over the life course. Distinct from cumulative advantage, staged advantage asserts that inequalities in education ebb and flow over the life course as the population at risk of making each educational transition changes along with the constraints they confront in seeking more education. Results based on data from the 2014 follow-up of the sophomore cohort of High School and Beyond offer partial support for our hypotheses. The educational attainment process was far from over for our respondents as they aged through their 30s and 40s: more than six of ten continued their formal training during this period and four of ten earned an additional credential. Patterns of educational stratification at midlife became more pronounced in some ways, as women pulled further ahead of men in their educational attainments and parental education (but not income), and high school academic achievement continued to shape educational trajectories at the bachelor's degree level and beyond. However, African American respondents gained on White respondents during this life phase through continued formal (largely academic) training and slightly greater conditional probabilities of graduate or professional degree attainment; social background fails to predict earning an associate degree. These results, showing educational changes and transitions far into adulthood, have implications for our understanding of the complex role of education in stratification processes.

The Effects of Education on Mortality: Evidence From Linked U.S. Census and Administrative Mortality Data.

Does education change people's lives in a way that delays mortality? Or is education primarily a proxy for unobserved endowments that promote longevity? Most scholars conclude that the former is true, but recent evidence based on Danish twin data calls this conclusion into question. Unfortunately, these potentially field-changing findings-that obtaining additional schooling has no independent effect on survival net of other hard-to-observe characteristics-have not yet been subject to replication outside Scandinavia. In this article, we produce the first U.S.-based estimates of the effects of education on mortality using a representative panel of male twin pairs drawn from linked complete-count census and death records. For comparison purposes, and to shed additional light on the roles that neighborhood, family, and genetic factors play in confounding associations between education and mortality, we also produce parallel estimates of the education-mortality relationship using data on (1) unrelated males who lived in different neighborhoods during childhood, (2) unrelated males who shared the same neighborhood growing up, and (3) non-twin siblings who shared the same family environment but whose genetic endowments vary to a greater degree. We find robust associations between education and mortality across all four samples, although estimates are modestly attenuated among twins and non-twin siblings. These findings-coupled with several robustness checks and sensitivity analyses-support a causal interpretation of the association between education and mortality for cohorts of boys born in the United States in the first part of the twentieth century.

Family structure and childhood anthropometry in Saint Paul, Minnesota in 1918.

Concern with childhood nutrition prompted numerous surveys of children's growth in the United States after 1870. The Children's Bureau's 1918 "Weighing and Measuring Test" measured two million children to produce the first official American growth norms. Individual data for 14,000 children survives from the Saint Paul, Minnesota survey whose stature closely approximated national norms. As well as anthropometry the survey recorded exact ages, street address and full name. These variables allow linkage to the 1920 census to obtain demographic and socioeconomic information. We matched 72% of children to census families creating a sample of nearly 10,000 children. Children in the entire survey (linked set) averaged 0.74 (0.72) standard deviations below modern WHO height-for-age standards, and 0.48 (0.46) standard deviations below modern weight-for-age norms. Sibship size strongly influenced height-for-age, and had weaker influence on weight-for-age. Each additional child six or underreduced height-for-age scores by 0.07 standard deviations (95% CI: -0.03, 0.11). Teenage siblings had little effect on height-forage. Social class effects were substantial. Children of laborers averaged half a standard deviation shorter than children of professionals. Family structure and socio-economic status had compounding impacts on children's stature.

Does Growing Childhood Socioeconomic Inequality Mean Future Inequality in Adult Health?

Over the past half century, American children have experienced increasingly unequal childhoods. The goal of this article is to begin to understand the implications of recent trends in social and economic inequalities among children for the future of inequalities in health among adults. The relative importance of many of the causal pathways linking childhood social and economic circumstances to adult health remains underexplored, and we know even less about how these causal pathways have changed over time. I combine a series of original analyses with reviews of relevant literature in a number of fields to inform a discussion of what growing childhood inequalities might mean for future inequalities in adult health. In the end, I argue that there is good reason to suppose that growing inequalities in children's social and economic circumstances will lead to greater heterogeneity in adults' morbidity and mortality.

Making Full Use of the Longitudinal Design of the Current Population Survey: Methods for Linking Records Across 16 Months.

Data from the Current Population Survey (CPS) are rarely analyzed in a way that takes advantage of the CPS's longitudinal design. This is mainly because of the technical difficulties associated with linking CPS files across months. In this paper, we describe the method we are using to create unique identifiers for all CPS person and household records from 1989 onward. These identifiers-available along with CPS basic and supplemental data as part of the on-line Integrated Public Use Microdata Series (IPUMS)-make it dramatically easier to use CPS data for longitudinal research across any number of substantive domains. To facilitate the use of these new longitudinal IPUMS-CPS data, we also outline seven different ways that researchers may choose to link CPS person records across months, and we describe the sample sizes and sample retention rates associated with these seven designs. Finally, we discuss a number of unique methodological challenges that researchers will confront when analyzing data from linked CPS files.

Linking the 1940 US Census to the NSHAP: Novel Opportunity to Understand the Effects of Childhood Residential Environment on Cognitive Aging.

OBJECTIVE: The 1940 Census is a valuable resource for understanding various aspects of historical populations in the United States. Recently, the National Social Life, Health and Aging Project (NSHAP) integrated 1940 Census data into its extensive dataset, providing researchers with an opportunity to explore new avenues of life course investigation. We leverage the newly-introduced measures of childhood residential environment and evaluate their potential predictive utility in older adult cognitive functioning net of childhood and adulthood characteristics known to be key risk factors for poor cognition. METHOD: We analyzed 777 respondents who were children in 1940 (age<17) that have been linked to the 1940 U.S. Census. We used childhood geographic location, homeownership status, household composition, and parental nativity as predictors. Cognitive function was measured using the Montreal Cognitive Assessment. RESULTS: Regression analysis showed that growing up in an urban area was associated with better cognitive function, while being born in the South was linked to poorer cognitive function, even after controlling for childhood health, parental education, educational attainment, stroke, and smoking status. Additionally, childhood multigenerational household was associated with better cognitive function, and childhood family size was associated with poorer cognitive function. However, these associations became statistically insignificant with the inclusion of educational attainment. We did not find homeownership and parental nativity to be associated with cognitive function. DISCUSSION: The findings may shed light on the potential long-term effects of childhood circumstances on cognitive aging processes. Implications for current literature and directions for future research are discussed.

Unauthorized Immigration to the United States: Annual Estimates and Components of Change, by State, 1990 to 2010.

We describe a method for producing annual estimates of the unauthorized immigrant population in the United Sates and components of population change, for each state and D.C., for 1990 to 2010. We quantify a sharp drop in the number of unauthorized immigrants arriving since 2000, and we demonstrate the role of departures from the population (emigration, adjustment to legal status, removal by the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), and deaths) in reducing population growth from one million in 2000 to population losses in 2008 and 2009. The number arriving in the U.S. peaked at more than one million in 1999 to 2001, and then declined rapidly through 2009. We provide evidence that population growth stopped after 2007 primarily because entries declined and not because emigration increased during the economic crisis. Our estimates of the total unauthorized immigrant population in the U.S. and in the top ten states are comparable to those produced by DHS and the Pew Hispanic Center. For the remaining states and D.C., our data and methods produce estimates with smaller ranges of sampling error.

Describing and explaining age, period, and cohort trends in Americans' vocabulary knowledge.

For a quarter of a century researchers have been documenting and trying to explain trends in Americans' vocabulary knowledge using data from the General Social Survey (GSS) and its WORDSUM test. Trends in Americans' vocabulary knowledge have important practical implications-for example, for educational policy and practice-and speak to the American workforce's competitiveness in the global knowledge economy. We contribute to this debate by analyzing 1978-2018 GSS data using an improved analytical approach that is consistent with theoretical notions of cohort effects and that permits simultaneously estimating inter-cohort average differences and intra-cohort life-course changes. We find that WORDSUM scores peak around age 35 and gradually decline in older ages; the scores were significantly lower in the 1980s and higher in the late 2000s and 2010s; and the 1940-1954 birth cohorts and the 1965 and later birth cohorts had notably higher and lower scores, respectively, than the expectation based on age and period main effects. We provide new evidence that such cohort differences tend to persist over the life course. Interestingly, the effects of increasing educational attainment and decreasing reading behaviors seemed to cancel out, leading to a relatively flat overall period trend. Trends in television viewing and word obsolescence did not appear to affect age, period, or cohort trends in WORDSUM scores. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11113-023-09771-5.

Family deaths in the early life course and their association with later educational attainment in a longitudinal cohort study.

Due to structural racism and pathways between racism and health, Black and Native American people die at younger ages than white people. This means that those groups are likely to experience deaths of family members at younger ages. Evidence is mixed about whether family deaths affect educational attainment. We aim to 1) estimate the prevalence of family deaths by age and race 2) estimate the effect of a family death on later educational attainment and 3) analyze whether the effect of a family death varies by age, socioeconomic status, gender, and race. The National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health (Add Health) is a nationally representative sample of U.S. adolescents in grades 7-12 at baseline in 1994-1995. Add Health has a large and racially diverse sample and records family deaths across the entire life course starting from birth. Participants were included in this analysis if they reported their educational attainment in Wave IV (N = 14,796). The racial group with the lowest proportion experiencing a sibling or parent death in the first 23 years of their lives was white participants (11.7%), followed by Asian (12.5%), Hispanic (15.0%), Black (24.3%) and Native American participants (30.3%). In adjusted models, those who experienced a family death had 0.60 times the odds (95% CI 0.51-0.71) of achieving a bachelor's degree compared to those without a family death. Mother deaths, father deaths, and sibling deaths were each harmful for obtaining a college degree and their effects were similar in magnitude. The age range when the effect of a family death was strongest was 10-13 years old (OR = 0.52 95% CI 0.40-0.67). The effect of a family death on college degree attainment did not vary by baseline parent education, participant sex, or race/ethnicity.

The Validity and Reliability of Retrospective Measures of Childhood Socioeconomic Status in the Health and Retirement Study: Evidence From the 1940 U.S. Census.

OBJECTIVES: Retrospective measures of childhood socioeconomic status (SES) in cohort studies of aging that first observe people late in life-such as the Health and Retirement Study (HRS)-are widely used. However, their measurement validity and reliability are unknown. We assess the reliability and validity of the HRS's retrospective measures of parental education and childhood family finances. METHODS: We use records for 6,343 HRS sample members who were children in 1940 that have been linked to records from the complete-count 1940 U.S. Census. We assess interrater reliability by comparing (a) retrospective reports of childhood SES collected from sample members in the 1992-2018 HRS to (b) prospective measures of parallel concepts collected from HRS sample members' parents in the 1940 Census. We assess predictive validity by comparing the results of analyses that model later-life outcomes as a function of childhood SES as measured both prospectively and retrospectively. RESULTS: Interrater reliabilities of retrospective measures of parental education are high; however, the same is not true of the retrospective measure of childhood family finances. Both retrospective and prospective measures of childhood SES are predictive of later-life outcomes, and with similar strengths and directions of associations for most outcomes. DISCUSSION: Researchers who rely on retrospective indicators of childhood SES from the HRS should be aware of their measurement properties. They are measured with error, and that error modestly attenuates estimates of their associations with later-life outcomes. However, prospective and retrospective measures of childhood SES have similar predictive validity. These findings should reassure researchers who rely on retrospective measures of childhood SES in the HRS and similarly designed surveys.

Effect of childhood proximity to lead mining on late life cognition.

INTRODUCTION: Lead exposure negatively affects cognitive functioning among children. However, there is limited evidence about whether exposure to lead in early life impairs later life cognitive functioning. METHODS: Participants in the prospective Wisconsin Longitudinal Study cohort (N = 8583) were linked to the 1940 Census, which was taken when they were young children. We estimated the effect of living near a lead mine in childhood on late life memory/attention and language/executive function in 2004 (mean age 64) and 2011 (mean age 71). RESULTS: Lead-exposed children had significantly steeper memory/attention decline between 2004 and 2011 and worse language/executive function at baseline in late life. These long-term effects of lead were not mediated through adolescent IQ or late life SES and health factors. DISCUSSION: Proximity to lead mining in childhood had long-term effects on late life memory/attention decline and language/executive function, reflecting a possible latent influence of lead exposure. More research is needed to understand behavioral and biological pathways underlying this relationship.

Does participating in a long-term cohort study impact research subjects' longevity? Experimental evidence from the Wisconsin Longitudinal Study.

There is considerable evidence that the act of participating in a survey can alter participants' attitudes, behaviors, and other outcomes in meaningful ways. Considering findings that this form of panel conditioning also impacts health behaviors and outcomes, we investigated the effect of participating in an intensive half-century-long cohort study on participants' longevity. To do so, we used data from a 1957 survey of more than 33,000 Wisconsin high school seniors linked to mortality records. One third of those people were selected at random to participate in the Wisconsin Longitudinal Study (WLS); the other two thirds were never again contacted. Our survival models show no evidence of panel conditioning effects on longevity: People selected at random to participate in the WLS had the same mortality outcomes as their peers who were not selected. This finding holds for the full sample, for women, for men, for population subgroups defined by family socioeconomic origins and educational experiences, and for treatment compliers.