Prediction of time-to-attainment of recovery for borderline patients followed prospectively for 16 years.

OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to determine the most clinically relevant baseline predictors of time-to-recovery from borderline personality disorder. METHOD: Two hundred and ninety in-patients meeting rigorous criteria for borderline personality disorder were assessed during their index admission using a series of semistructured interviews and self-report measures. Recovery status, which was defined as concurrent symptomatic remission and good social and full-time vocational functioning, was reassessed at eight contiguous 2-year time periods. Survival analytic methods (Cox regression), which controlled for overall baseline severity, were used to estimate hazard ratios and their confidence intervals. RESULTS: All told, 60% of the borderline patients studied achieved a 2-year recovery. In bivariate analyses, seventeen variables were found to be significant predictors of earlier time-to-recovery. Six of these predictors remained significant in multivariate analyses: no prior psychiatric hospitalizations, higher IQ, good full-time vocational record in 2 years prior to index admission, absence of an anxious cluster personality disorder, high extraversion, and high agreeableness. CONCLUSION: Taken together, the results of this study suggest that prediction of time-to-recovery for borderline patients is multifactorial in nature, involving factors related to lack of chronicity, competence, and more adaptive aspects of temperament.

Predictors of suicide attempts in patients with borderline personality disorder over 16 years of prospective follow-up.

BACKGROUND: It is clinically important to understand the factors that increase the likelihood of the frequent and recurrent suicide attempts seen in those with borderline personality disorder (BPD). Although several studies have examined this subject in a cross-sectional manner, the aim of this study was to determine the most clinically relevant baseline and time-varying predictors of suicide attempts over 16 years of prospective follow-up among patients with BPD. METHOD: Two-hundred and ninety in-patients meeting Revised Diagnostic Interview for Borderlines (DIB-R) and DSM-III-R criteria for BPD were assessed during their index admission using a series of semistructured interviews and self-report measures. These subjects were then reassessed using the same instruments every 2 years. The generalized estimating equations (GEE) approach was used to model the odds of suicide attempts in longitudinal analyses, controlling for assessment period, yielding an odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) for each predictor. RESULTS: Nineteen variables were found to be significant bivariate predictors of suicide attempts. Eight of these, seven of which were time-varying, remained significant in multivariate analyses: diagnosis of major depressive disorder (MDD), substance use disorder (SUD), post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), presence of self-harm, adult sexual assault, having a caretaker who has completed suicide, affective instability, and more severe dissociation. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this study suggest that prediction of suicide attempts among borderline patients is complex, involving co-occurring disorders, co-occurring symptoms of BPD (self-harm, affective reactivity and dissociation), adult adversity, and a family history of completed suicide.