Modelling the impact of repeat asymptomatic testing policies for staff on SARS-CoV-2 transmission potential.

Repeat asymptomatic testing in order to identify and quarantine infectious individuals has become a widely-used intervention to control SARS-CoV-2 transmission. In some workplaces, and in particular health and social care settings with vulnerable patients, regular asymptomatic testing has been deployed to staff to reduce the likelihood of workplace outbreaks. We have developed a model based on data available in the literature to predict the potential impact of repeat asymptomatic testing on SARS-CoV-2 transmission. The results highlight features that are important to consider when modelling testing interventions, including population heterogeneity of infectiousness and correlation with test-positive probability, as well as adherence behaviours in response to policy. Furthermore, the model based on the reduction in transmission potential presented here can be used to parameterise existing epidemiological models without them having to explicitly simulate the testing process. Overall, we find that even with different model paramterisations, in theory, regular asymptomatic testing is likely to be a highly effective measure to reduce transmission in workplaces, subject to adherence. This manuscript was submitted as part of a theme issue on "Modelling COVID-19 and Preparedness for Future Pandemics".

Contact patterns of UK home delivery drivers and their use of protective measures during the COVID-19 pandemic: a cross-sectional study.

OBJECTIVES: To quantify contact patterns of UK home delivery drivers and identify protective measures adopted during the pandemic. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional online survey to measure the interactions of 170 UK delivery drivers during a working shift between 7 December 2020 and 31 March 2021. RESULTS: Delivery drivers had a mean number of 71.6 (95% CI 61.0 to 84.1) customer contacts per shift and 15.0 (95% CI 11.2 to 19.2) depot contacts per shift. Maintaining physical distancing with customers was more common than at delivery depots. Prolonged contact (more than 5 min) with customers was reported by 5.4% of drivers on their last shift. We found 3.0% of drivers had tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 since the start of the pandemic and 16.8% of drivers had self-isolated due to a suspected or confirmed case of COVID-19. In addition, 5.3% (95% CI 2.3% to 10.2%) of participants reported having worked while ill with COVID-19 symptoms, or with a member of their household having a suspected or confirmed case of COVID-19. CONCLUSION: Delivery drivers had a large number of face-to-face customer and depot contacts per shift compared with other working adults during this time. However, transmission risk may be curtailed as contact with customers was of short duration. Most drivers were unable to maintain physical distance with customers and at depots at all times. Usage of protective items such as face masks and hand sanitiser was widespread.

Risk factors associated with respiratory infectious disease-related presenteeism: a rapid review.

BACKGROUND: Workplace transmission is a significant contributor to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) outbreaks. Previous studies have found that infectious illness presenteeism could contribute to outbreaks in occupational settings and identified multiple occupational and organisational risk factors. Amid the COVID-19 pandemic, it is imperative to investigate presenteeism particularly in relation to respiratory infectious disease (RID). Hence, this rapid review aims to determine the prevalence of RID-related presenteeism, including COVID-19, and examines the reported reasons and associated risk factors. METHODS: The review followed a Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) search approach and focused on studies published in English and Chinese. Database searches included MEDLINE, EMBASE, Web of Science, China Knowledge Resource Integrated Database (CNKI) and preprint databases MedRxiv and BioRxiv. RESULTS: The search yielded 54 studies, of which four investigated COVID-19-related presenteeism. Prevalence of work presenteeism ranged from 14.1 to 55% for confirmed RID, and 6.6 to 100% for those working with suspected or subclinical RID. The included studies demonstrated that RID-related presenteeism is associated with occupation, sick pay policy, age, gender, health behaviour and perception, vaccination, peer pressure and organisational factors such as presenteeism culture. CONCLUSIONS: This review demonstrates that presenteeism or non-adherence to isolation guidance is a real concern and can contribute to workplace transmissions and outbreaks. Policies which would support workers financially and improve productivity, should include a range of effective non-pharmaceutical inventions such as workplace testing, promoting occupational health services, reviewing pay and bonus schemes and clear messaging to encourage workers to stay at home when ill. Future research should focus on the more vulnerable and precarious occupational groups, and their inter-relationships, to develop comprehensive intervention programs to reduce RID-related presenteeism.

Hydrodynamic instabilities in active cholesteric liquid crystals.

We describe the basic properties and consequences of introducing active stresses, with principal direction along the local director, in cholesteric liquid crystals. The helical ground state is found to be linearly unstable to extensile stresses, without threshold in the limit of infinite system size, whereas contractile stresses are hydrodynamically screened by the cholesteric elasticity to give a finite threshold. This is confirmed numerically and the non-linear consequences of instability, in both extensile and contractile cases, are studied. We also consider the stresses associated to defects in the cholesteric pitch ([Formula: see text] lines) and show how the geometry near to the defect generates threshold-less flows reminiscent of those for defects in active nematics. At large extensile activity [Formula: see text] lines are spontaneously created and can form steady-state patterns sustained by constant active flows.

Active polar fluid flow in finite droplets.

We present a continuum level analytical model of a droplet of active contractile fluid consisting of filaments and motors. We calculate the steady state flows that result from a splayed polarisation of the filaments. We account for interaction with the external medium by imposing a viscous friction at the fixed droplet boundary. We then show that the droplet has non-zero force dipole and quadrupole moments, the latter of which is essential for self-propelled motion of the droplet at low Reynolds' number. Therefore, this calculation describes a simple mechanism for the motility of a droplet of active contractile fluid embedded in a three-dimensional environment, which is relevant to cell migration in confinement (for example, embedded within a gel or tissue). Our analytical results predict how the system depends on various parameters such as the effective friction coefficient, the phenomenological activity parameter and the splay of the imposed polarisation.

Surfactant amplifies yield-stress effects in the capillary instability of a film coating a tube.

To assess how the presence of surfactant in lung airways alters the flow of mucus that leads to plug formation and airway closure, we investigate the effect of insoluble surfactant on the instability of a viscoplastic liquid coating the interior of a cylindrical tube. Evolution equations for the layer thickness using thin-film and long-wave approximations are derived that incorporate yield-stress effects and capillary and Marangoni forces. Using numerical simulations and asymptotic analysis of the thin-film system, we quantify how the presence of surfactant slows growth of the Rayleigh-Plateau instability, increases the size of initial perturbation required to trigger instability and decreases the final peak height of the layer. When the surfactant strength is large, the thin-film dynamics coincide with the dynamics of a surfactant-free layer but with time slowed by a factor of four and the capillary Bingham number, a parameter proportional to the yield stress, exactly doubled. By solving the long-wave equations numerically, we quantify how increasing surfactant strength can increase the critical layer thickness for plug formation to occur and delay plugging. The previously established effect of the yield stress in suppressing plug formation [Shemilt et al., J. Fluid Mech., 2022, vol. 944, A22] is shown to be amplified by introducing surfactant. We discuss the implications of these results for understanding the impact of surfactant deficiency and increased mucus yield stress in obstructive lung diseases.

Modelling the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on workplace transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the home-delivery sector.

OBJECTIVE: We aimed to use mathematical models of SARS-COV-2 to assess the potential efficacy of non-pharmaceutical interventions on transmission in the parcel delivery and logistics sector. METHODS: We devloped a network-based model of workplace contacts based on data and consultations from companies in the parcel delivery and logistics sectors. We used these in stochastic simulations of disease transmission to predict the probability of workplace outbreaks in this settings. Individuals in the model have different viral load trajectories based on SARS-CoV-2 in-host dynamics, which couple to their infectiousness and test positive probability over time, in order to determine the impact of testing and isolation measures. RESULTS: The baseline model (without any interventions) showed different workplace infection rates for staff in different job roles. Based on our assumptions of contact patterns in the parcel delivery work setting we found that when a delivery driver was the index case, on average they infect only 0.14 other employees, while for warehouse and office workers this went up to 0.65 and 2.24 respectively. In the LIDD setting this was predicted to be 1.40, 0.98, and 1.34 respectively. Nonetheless, the vast majority of simulations resulted in 0 secondary cases among customers (even without contact-free delivery). Our results showed that a combination of social distancing, office staff working from home, and fixed driver pairings (all interventions carried out by the companies we consulted) reduce the risk of workplace outbreaks by 3-4 times. CONCLUSION: This work suggests that, without interventions, significant transmission could have occured in these workplaces, but that these posed minimal risk to customers. We found that identifying and isolating regular close-contacts of infectious individuals (i.e. house-share, carpools, or delivery pairs) is an efficient measure for stopping workplace outbreaks. Regular testing can make these isolation measures even more effective but also increases the number of staff isolating at one time. It is therefore more efficient to use these isolation measures in addition to social distancing and contact reduction interventions, rather than instead of, as these reduce both transmission and the number of people needing to isolate at one time.

Model-based Bayesian inference of the ventilation distribution in patients with cystic fibrosis from multiple breath washout, with comparison to ventilation MRI.

BACKGROUND: Indices of ventilation heterogeneity (VH) from multiple breath washout (MBW) have been shown to correlate well with VH indices derived from hyperpolarised gas ventilation MRI. Here we report the prediction of ventilation distributions from MBW data using a mathematical model, and the comparison of these predictions with imaging data. METHODS: We developed computer simulations of the ventilation distribution in the lungs to model MBW measurement with 3 parameters: σV, determining the extent of VH; V0, the lung volume; and VD, the dead-space volume. These were inferred for each individual from supine MBW data recorded from 25 patients with cystic fibrosis (CF) using approximate Bayesian computation. The fitted models were used to predict the distribution of gas imaged by 3He ventilation MRI measurements collected from the same visit. RESULTS: The MRI indices measured (I1/3, the fraction of pixels below one-third of the mean intensity and ICV, the coefficient of variation of pixel intensity) correlated strongly with those predicted by the MBW model fits (r=0.93,0.88 respectively). There was also good agreement between predicted and measured MRI indices (mean bias ± limits of agreement: I1/3:-0.003±0.118 and ICV:-0.004±0.298). Fitted model parameters were robust to truncation of MBW data. CONCLUSION: We have shown that the ventilation distribution in the lung can be inferred from an MBW signal, and verified this using ventilation MRI. The Bayesian method employed extracts this information with fewer breath cycles than required for LCI, reducing acquisition time required, and gives uncertainty bounds, which are important for clinical decision making.

Agility and Sustainability: A Qualitative Evaluation of COVID-19 Non-pharmaceutical Interventions in the UK Logistics Sector.

Background: The emergence of SARS-CoV-2 triggered a chain of public health responses that radically changed our way of living and working. Non-healthcare sectors, such as the logistics sector, play a key role in such responses. This research aims to qualitatively evaluate the non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) implemented in the UK logistics sector during the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: We conducted nine semi-structured interviews in July-August 2020 and May-June 2021. In total 11 interviewees represented six companies occupying a range of positions in the UK's logistics sector, including takeaway food delivery, large and small goods delivery and home appliance installation, and logistics technology providers. Thematic analysis was completed using NVivo12. Codes relevant to NPIs were grouped into themes and mapped deductively onto an adapted Hierarchy of Control (HoC) framework, focusing on delivery workers. Codes relevant to the implementation process of NPIs were grouped into themes/subthemes to identify key characteristics of rapid responses, and barriers and facilitators. Results: HoC analysis suggests the sector has implemented a wide range of risk mitigation measures, with each company developing their own portfolio of measures. Contact-free delivery was the most commonly implemented measure and perceived effective. The other implemented measures included social distancing, internal contact tracing, communication and collaboration with other key stakeholders of the sector. Process evaluation identified facilitators of rapid responses including capacity to develop interventions internally, localized government support, strong external mandates, effective communication, leadership support and financial support for self-isolation, while barriers included unclear government guidance, shortage of testing capacity and supply, high costs and diversified language and cultural backgrounds. Main sustainability issues included compliance fatigue, and the possible mental health impacts of a prolonged rapid response. Conclusions: This research identified drivers and obstacles of rapid implementation of NPIs in response to a respiratory infection pandemic. Existing implementation process models do not consider speed to respond and the absence or lack of guidance in emergency situations such as the COVID-19. We recommend the development of a rapid response model to inform the design of effective and sustainable infection prevention and control policies and to focus future research priorities.

Stable and unstable vortex knots in excitable media.

We study the dynamics of knotted vortices in a bulk excitable medium using the FitzHugh-Nagumo model. From a systematic survey of all knots of at most eight crossings we establish that the generic behavior is of unsteady, irregular dynamics, with prolonged periods of expansion of parts of the vortex. The mechanism for the length expansion is a long-range "wave-slapping" interaction, analogous to that responsible for the annihilation of small vortex rings by larger ones. We also show that there are stable vortex geometries for certain knots; in addition to the unknot, trefoil, and figure-eight knots reported previously, we have found stable examples of the Whitehead link and 6_{2} knot. We give a thorough characterization of their geometry and steady-state motion. For the unknot, trefoil, and figure-eight knots we greatly expand previous evidence that FitzHugh-Nagumo dynamics untangles initially complex geometries while preserving topology.

Effect of intermittent inspiratory leaks on measurement of lung clearance index using nitrogen and sulfur hexafluoride.

Even small air leaks can have a significant impact on LCI measured using N2. This is particularly the case for leaks that occur towards the end of washout. In contrast, leaks generally have a much smaller impact on LCI measured by SF6. http://ow.ly/az7b30lG5Ku.

Modelling structural determinants of ventilation heterogeneity: A perturbative approach.

We have developed a computational model of gas mixing and ventilation in the human lung represented as a bifurcating network. We have simulated multiple-breath washout (MBW), a clinical test for measuring ventilation heterogeneity (VH) in patients with obstructive lung conditions. By applying airway constrictions inter-regionally, we have predicted the response of MBW indices to obstructions and found that they detect a narrow range of severe constrictions that reduce airway radius to 10%-30% of healthy values. These results help to explain the success of the MBW test to distinguish obstructive lung conditions from healthy controls. Further, we have used a perturbative approach to account for intra-regional airway heterogeneity that avoids modelling each airway individually. We have found, for random airway heterogeneity, that the variance in MBW indices is greater when indices are already elevated due to constrictions. By quantifying this effect, we have shown that variability in lung structure and mechanical properties alone can lead to clinically significant variability in MBW indices (specifically the Lung Clearance Index-LCI, and the gradient of phase-III slopes-Scond), but only in cases simulating obstructive lung conditions. This method is a computationally efficient way to probe the lung's sensitivity to structural changes, and to quantify uncertainty in predictions due to random variations in lung mechanical and structural properties.

Immersed Boundary Simulations of Active Fluid Droplets.

We present numerical simulations of active fluid droplets immersed in an external fluid in 2-dimensions using an Immersed Boundary method to simulate the fluid droplet interface as a Lagrangian mesh. We present results from two example systems, firstly an active isotropic fluid boundary consisting of particles that can bind and unbind from the interface and generate surface tension gradients through active contractility. Secondly, a droplet filled with an active polar fluid with homeotropic anchoring at the droplet interface. These two systems demonstrate spontaneous symmetry breaking and steady state dynamics resembling cell motility and division and show complex feedback mechanisms with minimal degrees of freedom. The simulations outlined here will be useful for quantifying the wide range of dynamics observable in these active systems and modelling the effects of confinement in a consistent and adaptable way.