Determinants of Stroke in a General Male Population.

Background and Purpose- To further improve preventive strategies against stroke, there is a need for epidemiological long-term studies. The study aimed at a prospective investigation of stroke determinants in the general male population. Methods- During a period of 48 years, from 50 to 98 years of age, a population-based sample of 854 men was followed using repeated medical examinations, lifestyle questionnaires, data from hospital records and the National Cause of Death Register. Results- Determinants of ischemic stroke were atrial fibrillation (hazard ratio [HR], 6.61; 95% CI, 4.47-9.77); mother dead from cardiovascular disease (HR, 1.53; 1.09-2.17); high education (HR, 0.81; 0.69-0.96); and high physical activity level during leisure time (HR, 0.68; 0.50-0.93). For hemorrhagic stroke heart rate (HR, 1.04; 1.01-1.06) and mother dead from stroke (HR, 3.56; 1.43-8.87) constituted an increased risk. Statistically significant determinants for all stroke were atrial fibrillation (HR, 5.34; 3.68-7.75); high diastolic blood pressure (HR, 1.02; 1.01-1.03); high body weight (HR, 0.96; 0.94-0.99); high educational level (HR, 0.79; 0.68-0.92); wide waist circumference (HR, 1.04; 1.01-1.07); smoking (HR, 1.25; 1.06-1.48); mother dead from cerebrovascular disease (HR, 1.43; 1.05-1.94); and diabetes mellitus (HR, 1.65; 1.02-2.68). Of all men diagnosed with atrial fibrillation, 88% had a stroke during follow-up. Conclusions- Atrial fibrillation was by far the strongest determinant of stroke during 48 years of follow-up in a male population sample followed until the age of 98 years. The results warrant improved prophylaxis through intense treatment of modifiable determinants.

High androgen levels protect against hypothyroidism.

INTRODUCTION: Hypothyroidism is a common disorder, appearing mainly in women although less frequently found in women with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS). The objective was to test the hypothesis that hyperandrogenism might protect against hypothyroidism. MATERIAL AND METHODS: The data from three prospective follow-up studies (up to 21 years) and one register study were compared: women with PCOS (Rotterdam criteria), n = 25, women with Turner syndrome, n = 217, a random population sample of women, n = 315, and men, n = 95 (the WHO MONICA study). Findings were to be verified or rejected in all females, n = 553 716, from the same region. The proportion of hypothyroidism was calculated and thyroid peroxidase antibodies (TPO) in serum were measured. RESULTS: Hypothyroidism at >50 years of age was found in 8% of women with PCOS, 4% in men (PCOS vs. men; ns), 43% of women with Turner syndrome, irrespective of karyotype (p < 0.001 vs. PCOS), and in 17% of postmenopausal women in the population (p < 0.01 vs. PCOS). Elevated TPO were similar in PCOS and women and men in the population but higher in Turner syndrome. Hypothyroidism increased with age in all groups except PCOS women and men. In the register study, hypothyroidism was less common in women with PCOS >25 years (5.5%) than in women without PCOS (6.8%) from the same region (p < 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: Hypothyroidism was less frequently seen in women with PCOS and in men compared with women in the general population and among women with Turner syndrome. This was not explained by altered autoimmunity or the Y-chromosome. Androgens seem to protect against hypothyroidism.

Long term effects of residential NO(x) exposure on total and cause-specific mortality and incidence of myocardial infarction in a Swedish cohort.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Exposure to air pollution has been linked to total and cardiopulmonary mortality. However, few studies have examined the effects of exposure over decades, or which time windows of long term exposure are most relevant. We investigated the long term effects of residential air pollution on total and cause-specific mortality and incidence of myocardial infarction in a well-characterized cohort of men in Sweden. METHODS: A cohort of 7494 men in Gothenburg was examined in 1970-1973 and followed subsequently to determine predictors of cardiovascular disease. We collected data on residential address and cause-specific mortality for the years 1973-2007. Each individual was assigned yearly nitrogen oxides (NOx) exposure based on dispersion models. Using multivariable Cox regression and generalized additive models with time-dependent exposure, we studied the association between three different time windows of residential NOx exposure, and selected outcomes. RESULTS: In the years 1973-2007, a total of 5669 deaths, almost half of which were due to cardiovascular diseases, occurred in the cohort. Levels of NOx exposure decreased during the study period, from a median of 38 µg/m(3) in 1973 to 17 µg/m(3) in 2007. Total non-accidental mortality was associated with participants' NOx exposure in the last year (the year of outcome) (HR 1.03, 95% CI 1.01-1.05, per 10 µg/m(3)), with the mean NOx exposure during the last 5 years, and with the mean NOx exposure since enrolment (HR 1.02, 95% CI 1.01-1.04 for both). The associations were similar (HR 1.01-1.03), but generally not statistically significant, for cardiovascular, ischemic heart disease, and acute myocardial infarction mortality, and weaker for cerebrovascular and respiratory mortality. There was no association between NOx exposure and incident myocardial infarction. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS: Long term residential exposure to NOx at these relatively low exposure levels in Gothenburg was associated with total non-accidental mortality. The association was as strong for NOx exposure in the last year as for longer exposure windows. The effect was near linear, and only marginally affected by confounders and effect modifiers. The improved air quality in Gothenburg has by these estimates led to a 6% decrease in excess non-accidental mortality during the study period.

Men born in 1913 followed to age 100 years.

OBJECTIVES: To examine causes of death for men above 80 years of age, and health status in centenarians in a cohort of men followed from age 50 years. Factors of importance for survival were studied. DESIGN: A representative sample of men born in 1913 was first examined in 1963 and re-examined at ages 54, 60, 67, 75, 80 and 100 years. RESULTS: Of 973 selected men, 855 (88%) were examined at age 50, and 10 were alive at age 100.Twenty-seven percent lived until 80 years. Cardiovascular disease was the most common cause of death after this age. Dementia was recorded in two of ten men at age 100. Long survival was related to the mothers' high age at death, to non-smoking, high social class at age 50 and high maximum working capacity at age 54 years. At age 100, the seven examined men had low/normal blood pressure. Serum values of troponin T, N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptides and C-reactive protein were elevated, but echocardiographic findings were normal. CONCLUSIONS: Ten men experienced their 100th birthday. Survival was related to non-smoking, mothers' high age at death, high social class and previous high physical working capacity. Age-adjusted reference levels for laboratory tests are needed for centenarians.

Association of Cardiometabolic Multimorbidity With Mortality.

IMPORTANCE: The prevalence of cardiometabolic multimorbidity is increasing. OBJECTIVE: To estimate reductions in life expectancy associated with cardiometabolic multimorbidity. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Age- and sex-adjusted mortality rates and hazard ratios (HRs) were calculated using individual participant data from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration (689,300 participants; 91 cohorts; years of baseline surveys: 1960-2007; latest mortality follow-up: April 2013; 128,843 deaths). The HRs from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration were compared with those from the UK Biobank (499,808 participants; years of baseline surveys: 2006-2010; latest mortality follow-up: November 2013; 7995 deaths). Cumulative survival was estimated by applying calculated age-specific HRs for mortality to contemporary US age-specific death rates. EXPOSURES: A history of 2 or more of the following: diabetes mellitus, stroke, myocardial infarction (MI). MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: All-cause mortality and estimated reductions in life expectancy. RESULTS: In participants in the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration without a history of diabetes, stroke, or MI at baseline (reference group), the all-cause mortality rate adjusted to the age of 60 years was 6.8 per 1000 person-years. Mortality rates per 1000 person-years were 15.6 in participants with a history of diabetes, 16.1 in those with stroke, 16.8 in those with MI, 32.0 in those with both diabetes and MI, 32.5 in those with both diabetes and stroke, 32.8 in those with both stroke and MI, and 59.5 in those with diabetes, stroke, and MI. Compared with the reference group, the HRs for all-cause mortality were 1.9 (95% CI, 1.8-2.0) in participants with a history of diabetes, 2.1 (95% CI, 2.0-2.2) in those with stroke, 2.0 (95% CI, 1.9-2.2) in those with MI, 3.7 (95% CI, 3.3-4.1) in those with both diabetes and MI, 3.8 (95% CI, 3.5-4.2) in those with both diabetes and stroke, 3.5 (95% CI, 3.1-4.0) in those with both stroke and MI, and 6.9 (95% CI, 5.7-8.3) in those with diabetes, stroke, and MI. The HRs from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration were similar to those from the more recently recruited UK Biobank. The HRs were little changed after further adjustment for markers of established intermediate pathways (eg, levels of lipids and blood pressure) and lifestyle factors (eg, smoking, diet). At the age of 60 years, a history of any 2 of these conditions was associated with 12 years of reduced life expectancy and a history of all 3 of these conditions was associated with 15 years of reduced life expectancy. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Mortality associated with a history of diabetes, stroke, or MI was similar for each condition. Because any combination of these conditions was associated with multiplicative mortality risk, life expectancy was substantially lower in people with multimorbidity.

Stroke and coronary heart disease: predictive power of standard risk factors into old age--long-term cumulative risk study among men in Gothenburg, Sweden.

AIMS: The aim of this study was to examine the short-term and long-term cumulative risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke separately based on age, sex, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, and total serum cholesterol. METHODS AND RESULTS: The Primary Prevention Study comprising 7174 men aged between 47 and 55 free from a previous history of CHD, stroke, and diabetes at baseline examination (1970-73) was followed up for 35 years. To estimate the cumulative effect of CHD and stroke, all participants were stratified into one of five risk groups, defined by their number of risk factors. The estimated 10-year risk for high-risk individuals when adjusted for age and competing risk was 18.1% for CHD and 3.2% for stroke which increased to 47.8 and 19.6%, respectively, after 35 years. The estimates based on risk factors performed well throughout the period for CHD but less well for stroke. CONCLUSION: The prediction of traditional risk factors (systolic blood pressure, total serum cholesterol, and smoking status) on short-term risk (0-10 years) and long-term risk (0-35 years) of CHD of stroke differs substantially. This indicates that the cumulative risk in middle-aged men based on these traditional risk factors can effectively be used to predict CHD but not stroke to the same extent.

Occupational status and incidences of ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke in Swedish men: a population-based 35-year prospective follow-up study.

This study examined variations in stroke incidence across occupational classes over a 35-year follow-up period. We analyzed a random population-based sample of 6,994 men aged 47-56 years at baseline without prior history of stroke. Standardized incidence rates, subdistribution hazard ratios (SHRs) from competing risk regressions and cumulative incidence were calculated, after accounting for risk of death attributed to causes other than stroke. A total of 1,442 strokes were identified over the 35-year period with crude incidences of 5.50 (ischemic) and 1.16 (hemorrhagic) per 1,000 person-years. In the whole group, occupational class was not associated with either ischemic or hemorrhagic stroke. However, older men (≥51 years at baseline) with unskilled manual occupations had a significantly lower risk of ischemic stroke than those with high officials (referent). No association between occupation and stroke of either type was detected for men younger than 51 years. There was an inverse and graded risk of death from causes other than stroke; men in high official positions had the lowest cumulative risk and unskilled manual workers had the highest risk (P < 0.0001). The association between occupation and ischemic stroke in older men persisted after accounting for competing risks of death (SHR 0.62; 95 % CI 0.46-0.84). In conclusion, low socioeconomic status was not associated with an increased risk of incident hemorrhagic or ischemic stroke. Older men with the lowest occupational status i.e. unskilled manual had a significantly lower risk of ischemic stroke, even after controlling for other risk factors and competing risks of death.

High-normal blood pressure and long-term risk of type 2 diabetes: 35-year prospective population based cohort study of men.

BACKGROUND: The link between type 2 diabetes and hypertension is well established and the conditions often coexist. High normal blood pressure, defined by WHO-ISH as systolic blood pressure (SBP) 130-139 mm Hg or diastolic blood pressure (DBP) 85-89 mm Hg, has been found to be an independent predictor for type 2 diabetes in studies, although with relatively limited follow-up periods of approximately 10 years. The aim of this study was to investigate whether hypertension, including mildly elevated blood pressure within the normal range, predicted subsequent development of type 2 diabetes in men over an extended follow-up of 35 years. METHODS: Data were derived from the Gothenburg Primary Prevention Study where a random sample of 7 494 men aged 47-55 years underwent a baseline screening investigation in the period 1970-1973. A total of 7 333 men were free from previous history of diabetes at baseline. During a 35-year follow-up diabetes was identified through the Swedish hospital discharge and death registries. The cumulative risk of diabetes adjusted for age and competing risk of death was calculated. Using Cox proportional hazard models we calculated the multiple adjusted hazard ratios (HR) (95% confidence interval (CI)) for diabetes at different blood pressure levels. RESULTS: During a 35-year follow-up, 956 men (13%) were identified with diabetes. The 35-year cumulative risk of diabetes after adjusting for age and competing risk of death in men with SBP levels <130 mm Hg, 130-139 mm Hg, 140-159 mm Hg and ≥160 mm Hg were 19%, 30%, 31% and 49%, respectively. The HR for diabetes adjusted for age, body mass index (BMI), cholesterol, antihypertensive treatment, smoking, physical activity and occupation were 1.43 (95% CI 1.12-1.84), 1.43 (95% CI 1.14-1.79) and 1.95 (95% CI 1.55-2.46) for men with SBP 130-139 mm Hg, 140-159 mm Hg, and ≥ 160 mm Hg, respectively (reference; SBP<130 mm Hg). CONCLUSION: In this population, at mid-life, even high-normal SBP levels were shown to be a significant predictor of type 2 diabetes, independently of BMI and other conventional type 2 diabetes risk factors over an extended follow-up.

Effects of self-rated health on sick leave, disability pension, hospital admissions and mortality. A population-based longitudinal study of nearly 15,000 observations among Swedish women and men.

BACKGROUND: Simple global self-ratings of health (SRH) have become increasingly used in national and international public health monitoring, and in recent decades recommended as a standard part of health surveys. Monitoring developments in population health requires identification and use of health measures, valid in relation to targets for population health. The aim of the present study was to investigate associations between SRH and sick leave, disability pension, hospital admissions, and mortality, adjusted for effects of significant covariates, in a large population-based cohort. METHODS: The analyses were based on screening data from eight population-based cohorts in southern and central Sweden, and on official register data regarding sick-leave, disability pension, hospital admissions, and death, with little or no data loss. Sampling was performed 1973-2003. The study population consisted of 11,880 women and men, age 25-99 years, providing 14,470 observations. Information on SRH, socio-demographic data, lifestyle variables and somatic and psychological symptoms were obtained from questionnaires. RESULTS: There was a significant negative association between SRH and sick leave (Beta -13.2, p<0.0001, and -9.5, p<0.01, in women and men, respectively), disability pension (Hazard ratio 0.77, p<0.0001 and 0.76, p<0.0001, in women and men, respectively), and mortality, adjusted for covariates. SRH was also significantly associated with hospital admissions in men (Hazard ratio 0.87, p<0.0001), but not in women (Hazard ratio 0.96, p0.20). Associations between SRH on the one hand, and sick leave, disability pension, hospital admission, and mortality, on the other, were robust during the follow-up period. CONCLUSIONS: SRH had strong predictive validity in relation to use of social insurance facilities and health care services, and to mortality. Associations were strong and robust during follow-up.

Relationships between body mass index, cardiovascular mortality, and risk factors: a report from the SCORE investigators.

BACKGROUND: Although cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the biggest global cause of death, CVD mortality is falling in developed countries. There is concern that this trend may be offset by increasing levels of obesity. DESIGN: We used the Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) data set to examine relationships between body mass index (BMI), conventional risk factors and CVD mortality. METHODS: The SCORE data set comprises data from 12 European cohort studies. The relationship between BMI and CVD mortality was examined in each BMI category using univariable and multivariable (Cox) analyses. The SCORE population was also divided into gender and age strata: under 40, 40-49, 50-59, and over 60. The rate of CVD mortality in each BMI category was calculated within each gender and age stratum. Relationships between BMI and other CVD risk factors were also examined. RESULTS: There was a strong, graded but J-shaped univariable relationship between BMI and CVD mortality in both genders. Each 5-unit increase in BMI was associated with an increase in CVD mortality of 34% in men and 29% in women. The hazard ratios remained significant when adjusted for age, self-reported smoking status, total cholesterol, and systolic blood pressure (SBP). On additional adjustment for diabetes and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL), the association between BMI and CVD mortality did not persist. In all age groups except those over 60 there were significant relationships between increased BMI and CVD mortality. In the over-60 age group the only significant relationships with mortality were in underweight and severely overweight women and mildly obese men. After adjustment for age, each 1-unit increase in BMI was associated with a 1.14 mmHg increase in SBP, 0.055 mmol/l increase in total cholesterol, and a 0.024 mmol/l decrease in HDL in men. Figures were slightly lower in women. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, overweight and obesity relate to CVD mortality in a strong and graded manner. The effects are greater in women and markedly so in younger persons. It is likely that a substantial part of the BMI-associated risk of CVD mortality is mediated through other known CVD risk factors. This increases the public health importance of BMI as both a simple indicator and mediator of CVD risk.

Long-term risk of stroke and myocardial infarction in middle-aged men with a hypertensive response to exercise: a 44-year follow-up study.

INTRODUCTION: Data on the prognostic value of hypertensive response to exercise in cardiovascular disease are limited. The aim was to determine whether SBP reactions during exercise have any prognostic value in relation to the long-term risk of stroke and myocardial infarction (MI). PATIENTS AND METHODS: A representative cohort of men from Gothenburg, Sweden, born in 1913, who performed a maximum exercise test at age 54 years, (n = 604), was followed-up for a maximum of 44 years with regard to stroke and MI. RESULTS: Among the 604 men, the mean resting and maximum SBP was 141.5 (SD 18.8) and 212.1 (SD 24.6) mmHg, respectively. For maximum SBP, the risk of stroke increased by 34% (hazard ratio 1.34, 95% confidence interval 1.11-1.61) per 1-SD increase, while no risk increase was observed for MI. The highest risk of stroke among blood pressure groups was observed among men with a resting SBP of at least 140 mmHg and a maximum SBP of at least 210 mmHg with an hazard ratio of 2.09 (95% confidence interval 1.29-3.40), compared with men with a resting SBP of less than 140 mmHg and a maximum SBP of less than 210 mmHg, independent of smoking, blood glucose, cholesterol and BMI. CONCLUSION: Among middle-aged men with high resting and maximum blood pressure during maximum exercise workload, an increased risk of stroke was observed but not for MI. Further studies with larger sample sizes are needed to investigate the underlying mechanisms of the increased risk of stroke among individuals with hypertensive response to exercise.

Big men and atrial fibrillation: effects of body size and weight gain on risk of atrial fibrillation in men.

AIMS: Obesity is a recognized risk factor for atrial fibrillation (AF), partly because of the association between body mass index (BMI) and atrial volume. We aimed to determine whether other factors relating to body size were related to AF. METHODS AND RESULTS: Data were derived from a random population sample of 6903 men (mean age 51.5 years) who underwent a single midlife evaluation as part of the multifactor Swedish Primary Prevention Study. A total of 1253 men (18.2%) had a subsequent hospital discharge diagnosis (principal or secondary) of AF during a maximum follow-up of 34.3 years. Body surface area (BSA) at age 20 (calculated from recalled weight and measured height) was strongly related to subsequent AF (P < 0.0001), as were midlife BMI and weight gain from age 20 to midlife (P < 0.0001). In a Cox regression model which adjusted for midlife BMI, weight gain and other risk factors, hazard ratios (HR) [95% confidence intervals (CI)] for AF for the second, third, and fourth quartile of BSA at age 20, compared with the lowest quartile, were 1.47 (95% CI, 1.22-1.76), 1.66 (95% CI, 1.38-2.00), and 2.22 (95% CI, 1.82-2.70) (P for trend <0.0001). CONCLUSION: Large body size in youth, in an era when obesity was rare, as well as weight gain from age 20 to midlife, were both independently related to the development of AF. Given the current trends not only for obesity but also for height, a substantial increase in the incidence of AF is likely.

Stroke incidence and mortality rates 1987 to 2006 related to secular trends of cardiovascular risk factors in Gothenburg, Sweden.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Stroke incidence rates were unchanged whereas fatality rates declined during the period 1971 to 1987 in Gothenburg (Göteborg), Sweden. For the period 1987 to 2006, we now report on trends in stroke incidence and mortality with concurrent risk factor trends in the same population. Since 1976 the incidence of myocardial infarction decreased by 50%. METHODS: Through the National Hospital Discharge Register linked with the Cause of Death Register, 12 904 males and 15 250 females with first strokes were detected for the period 1987 to 2006. Cardiovascular risk factor data were available for random population samples of men and women aged 50 years from 1963 to 2003. RESULTS: Incidence and mortality rates for all-stroke were unchanged. Rates for subarachnoid hemorrhage declined for the age group 45 to 54 in men, but not significantly in any other age group of men or women. Mortality rates of intracerebral hemorrhage declined for women aged 65 to 74, with no significant changes in any other age group. Ischemic stroke incidence did not change, but mortality increased for men and women aged 75 and older, whereas mortality declined for the age group 20 to 44 for men. In the general population there were significant reductions in smoking, total cholesterol, and blood pressure levels in both men and women, whereas diabetes prevalence, body weight, and BMI increased among both sexes, and triglycerides increased in men. CONCLUSIONS: Contrary to myocardial infarction, stroke incidence and mortality did not change. Monitoring of cardiovascular risk factors in the community is important.

Re-evaluating the Rose approach: comparative benefits of the population and high-risk preventive strategies.

BACKGROUND: Options for the prevention of cardiovascular disease, the greatest global cause of death, include population preventive measures (the Rose approach), or specifically seeking out and managing high-risk cases. However, the likely benefit of a population approach has been recently questioned. OBJECTIVE: To compare the estimated effects of population strategies at varying levels of population-wide risk factor reduction and high-risk strategies at varying rates of screening uptake on cardiovascular disease mortality. METHODS: Data (of 109 954 participants) were pooled from six European general population cohort studies [the high-risk cohorts from the SCORE (Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation) dataset]. The effects of various population and high-risk strategies for the reduction of risk factors were estimated by calculating the change in 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease mortality (SCORE risk) before and after the particular intervention. Risk factors studied were: total cholesterol, blood pressure and smoking. RESULTS: At population level, if a 10-year reduction of blood cholesterol level of 10%, a BP reduction of 10% and a 10% reduction in the prevalence of smoking is considered possible, then 9125 lives per million of the population would be saved over 10 years. In contrast, an approach that treats all high-risk individuals with a polypill containing statin, three half-dose antihypertensives and aspirin, with a 20-80% uptake, would save 1861-7452 lives per million. However, the high-risk estimates are very optimistic, as their achievement would require complete compliance. CONCLUSION: High-risk and population strategies are complementary. These estimates of the benefits of each may be useful to health planners, when combined with their local knowledge. Recently, benefits of population strategies have been underestimated.

Aspirin increases mortality in diabetic patients without cardiovascular disease: a Swedish record linkage study.

PURPOSE: Aspirin is effective in secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease. The results are less convincing when aspirin is used for primary prevention even in high-risk patients (i.e., patients with diabetes). We therefore analyzed the effect of aspirin on mortality and serious bleeding in diabetic patients with and without cardiovascular disease. METHODS: We performed a record linkage study of the patient registry of the Västra Götaland region in south-western Sweden, the Swedish mortality register and the Swedish register of dispensed drugs. All diabetic patients (n = 58 465) from 1 July 2005 to 30 June 2006 were followed up with respect to bleeding until 31 October 2006, and mortality until 31 December 2006. RESULTS: When 19 confounding factors (diseases and interventions) were assessed, aspirin significantly increased mortality in diabetic patients without cardiovascular disease from 17% (95% confidence interval; 95%CI, 1-36) at age 50 years to 29% (16-43) at age 85 years. In contrast aspirin tended to decrease mortality among elderly diabetic patients with cardiovascular disease. Theoretical calculations indicated that aspirin caused 107 excess deaths among diabetic patients without cardiovascular disease and prevented 164 deaths among diabetic patients with cardiovascular disease. Aspirin also increased the risk of serious bleeding by 46% (95%CI, 22-75) in diabetic patients without cardiovascular disease but decreased the risk among those with cardiovascular disease. CONCLUSION: Aspirin use in diabetes patients without cardiovascular disease remains controversial and current guidelines should be revised until results from ongoing large randomized controlled trials become available.

Prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors and the metabolic syndrome in middle-aged men and women in Gothenburg, Sweden.

BACKGROUND: Random samples of 50-year-old men living in Gothenburg have been examined every 10th year since 1963 with a focus on cardiovascular risk factors. The aims of the study were to acquire up-to-date information about risk factors in the fifth cohort of 50-year-old men and women, to re-examine those who were 50 years of age in 1993, and to analyse the prevalence of the metabolic syndrome (MetSyn) using different definitions. METHODS: A random sample of men and women born in 1953 were examined in 2003-2004 for cardiovascular risk factors. Men born in 1943 and that participated in the examination in 1993 were also invited. Descriptive statistics were calculated. RESULTS: The participation rate among men and women born in 1953 was 60 and 67% respectively. Among men born in 1943, the participation rate was 87%. The prevalence of obesity was from 15 to 17% (body mass index, BMI >or= 30) in the three samples. The prevalence of known diabetes was 4% among the 50-year-old men and 6% among the 60-year-old men, and 2% among the women. Increased fasting plasma glucose varied substantially from 4 to 33% depending on cut-off level and gender. Mean cholesterol was 5.4 to 5.5 mmol/l. Smoking was more common among women aged 50 (26%) than among men aged 50 (22%) and 60 years (15%). The prevalence of the MetSyn varied with the definition used: from 10 to 15.8% among the women, from 16.1 to 26% among 50-year-old men, and from 19.9 to 35% among the 60-year-old men. Only 5% of the men and women had no risk factors. CONCLUSION: This study provides up-to-date information about the prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors and the MetSyn in middle-aged Swedish men and women. Different definitions of the MetSyn create confusion regarding which definition to use.

Diabetes in treated hypertension is common and carries a high cardiovascular risk: results from a 28-year follow-up.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to analyse predictive factors for development of type 2 diabetes during life-long therapy for hypertension and the alleged additional cardiovascular risk this constitutes. METHODS: The study group (n = 754) comprised the hypertensive subgroup of a randomized population sample of 7500 men, aged 47-54 years, screened for cardiovascular risk factors and followed for 25-28 years. The patients were treated with thiazide diuretics and beta-adrenergic blocking drugs with the addition of hydralazin during the first decade. Calcium antagonists were substituted for hydralazin and, if needed, angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors were added when these drugs became available. RESULTS: A total of 148 (20.4%) treated hypertensive patients developed diabetes during 25 years, and in multivariate Cox regression analysis body mass index, serum triglycerides and treatment with beta-blockers were positively related with this complication. New-onset diabetes implied a significantly increased risk for stroke [hazard ratio (HR): 1.67; 95% confidence interval (95% CI): 1.1-2.6; P < 0.05], myocardial infarction (OR: 1.66; 95% CI: 1.1-2.5; P < 0.05) and mortality (OR: 1.42; 95% CI: 1.1-1.9; P < 0.05). The greatest risk for stroke was new-onset diabetes, followed by smoking (OR: 1.46; 95% CI: 1-2.2; P = 0.07) and the greatest risk for myocardial infarction was new-onset diabetes, followed by smoking (HR: 1.64; 95% CI: 1.1-2.4; P < 0.01). The greatest risk for mortality was smoking (HR: 1.73; 95% CI: 1.3-2.2; P < 0.005). Achieved systolic and diastolic blood pressure were not predictive of cardiovascular complications or death. The mean observation time from onset of diabetes mellitus to a first stroke was 9.1 years and to a first myocardial infarction 9.3 years. CONCLUSION: Diabetes in treated hypertensive patients is alarmingly common and carries a high risk for cardiovascular complications and mortality.

Long-term risk factors for stroke: twenty-eight years of follow-up of 7457 middle-aged men in Göteborg, Sweden.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: To estimate the predictive value of risk factors for stroke measured in midlife over follow-up extending through 28 years. METHODS: A cohort of 7457 men 47 to 55 years of age and free of stroke at baseline year 1970 were examined. Risk of stroke was analyzed for the entire period and for 0 to 15, 16 to 21, and 22 to 28 years of follow-up using age-adjusted and multiple Cox regression analyses. RESULTS: Age, diabetes, and high blood pressure were independently associated with increased risk of stroke for the entire 28 years and for each of the periods. Previous transient ischemic attacks, atrial fibrillation, history of chest pain, smoking, and psychological stress were independently related to stroke for the entire follow-up period and also during the first 1 or 2 successive periods. Family history of stroke or of coronary disease carried no independent prognostic information, nor did serum cholesterol. Elevated body mass index predicted stroke during the later part of the follow-up and so did (almost) low physical activity during leisure time, together with antihypertensive medication at baseline. CONCLUSIONS: High blood pressure and diabetes retain their importance as stroke risk factors also over an extended follow-up into old age. A family history of cardiovascular disease was not significantly related to outcome. Transient ischemic attacks, atrial fibrillation, stress, smoking, and a history of chest pain were associated with outcome only for the first or the first 2 periods. High body mass index and antihypertensive medication at baseline emerged as risk factors in the second and third decades.