Time series analysis of demographic and temporal trends of tuberculosis in Singapore.

BACKGROUND: Singapore is an intermediate tuberculosis (TB) incidence country, with a recent rise in TB incidence from 2008, after a fall in incidence since 1998. This study identified population characteristics that were associated with the recent increase in TB cases, and built a predictive model of TB risk in Singapore. METHODS: Retrospective time series analysis was used to study TB notification data collected from 1995 to 2011 from the Singapore Tuberculosis Elimination Program (STEP) registry. A predictive model was developed based on the data collected from 1995 to 2010 and validated using the data collected in 2011. RESULTS: There was a significant difference in demographic characteristics between resident and non-resident TB cases. TB risk was higher in non-residents than in residents throughout the period. We found no significant association between demographic and macro-economic factors and annual incidence of TB with or without adjusting for the population-at-risk. Despite growing non-resident population, there was a significant decrease in the non-resident TB risk (p < 0.0001). However, there was no evidence of trend in the resident TB risk over this time period, though differences between different demographic groups were apparent with ethnic minorities experiencing higher incidence rates. CONCLUSION: The study found that despite an increasing size of non-resident population, TB risk among non-residents was decreasing at a rate of about 3% per year. There was an apparent seasonality in the TB reporting.

Tuberculosis among foreign-born persons, Singapore, 2000-2009.

We determined the proportion of foreign-born persons with tuberculosis (TB) in Singapore. This proportion increased from 25.5% in 2004 to 37.6% in 2009. Unskilled workers from countries with high incidences of TB accounted for the highest number of and greatest increase in foreign-born TB case-patients.

How Myanmar Is Working to Maintain Essential Services for People Living With HIV and Key Populations During the Covid-19 Pandemic.

BACKGROUND: Maintaining essential HIV services has being a Global challenge during the COVID-19 crises. Myanmar has 54 million inhabitants. Neighbor of China, Thailand, India and Bangladesh it was impacted by COVID-19, but came up with a comprehensive and effective response, following WHO recommendations. The HIV Prevalence is 0.58% and it is concentrated among key population. A HIV Contingency Plan was developed to face this challenge. METHODOLOGY: The programme-based cross-sectional descriptive study with analysis of routinely collected data from MoHS data system, between 2019 and 2020 was conducted, comparing first six months of 2019 and 2020. RESULTS: HIV outreach activities and HIV testing were slightly affected after detection of first COVID-19 case, till mid May 2020. After that, outreach activities resumed. Introduction of HIV self-testing was initiated. 72% of more than 21,000 PWID on MMT were receiving take home dose up to 14 days and 60% of ART patients were receiving 6 months ARV dispensing. CONCLUSION: Essential HIV services were maintained.

Spatial dynamics of TB within a highly urbanised Asian metropolis using point patterns.

Singapore is a high-income country in a region with a high prevalence of tuberculosis. The Singapore Tuberculosis (TB) Elimination Program (STEP) was set up in 1997, and the better surveillance and clinical management practices initiated under STEP led to a decade-long decline in the incidence levels. However, incidence rates started to rise again since 2008. The reasons for this rise are unclear. This study involved a spatial analysis of the epidemiology of TB among Singapore residents. More than 30 000 cases reported during 1995-2011 and their residential addresses were analysed for spatial risk and spatial clustering, using spatial point pattern methodology. The principal factor responsible for the increasing resident TB incidence in Singapore is the changing age profile of the population. In particular the burgeoning population aged above 65 years accounts for the increase in reported cases. Singapore's population has one of the world's lowest fertility and mortality rates, and the elderly population is projected to grow substantially over the next few decades. Tuberculosis rates may therefore continue to rise even with static or improving case management and surveillance.

Smear-positive pulmonary tuberculosis patients with previously abnormal chest radiographs: missed opportunities for early diagnosis

INTRODUCTION@#It is vital to diagnose and treat pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) early, in the interests of the patient and public health. At the Singapore Tuberculosis Control Unit (TBCU), it was not uncommon to discover abnormal chest radiographs (CXRs) predating their PTB diagnosis by months to years in the electronic medical records (EMRs) of sputum acid-fast bacilli smear-positive patients. Our study explored this observation.@*METHODS@#The EMRs of sputum smear-positive PTB patients treated at the TBCU from January to July 2014 were viewed for abnormal CXRs preceding their PTB diagnosis. Information in the EMRs pertaining to the indication for the CXRs, radiological reports (including whether the possibility of PTB was stated) and action taken was captured.@*RESULTS@#Of the 254 sputum smear-positive patients, 108 had previous CXRs in their EMRs, of whom 39 (36.1%) had previous CXRs compatible with PTB. Most of these were performed in tertiary institutions and for reasons unrelated to PTB. No action was taken in response to these CXRs in 24 (61.5%) patients. 27 (69.2%) patients had abnormal CXRs dating back more than six months, with 12 (30.8%) dating back more than 30 months before the PTB diagnosis. Patients aged ≥ 55 years were significantly more likely to have previous CXRs that were compatible with PTB.@*CONCLUSION@#PTB patients may be asymptomatic or have chronic indolent disease and remain undiagnosed for years. There is a need for vigilance within our healthcare system to seize opportunities for early diagnosis and treatment to prevent the spread of this infectious disease in Singapore.

The imminent threat of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis in Singapore

The global emergence of multidrugresistant (MDR) tuberculosis (TB) and extensively drug-resistant (XDR)-TB threatens to derail the efforts of TB control programmes worldwide. From 2000 to 2010, 161 pulmonary MDR-TB cases (including six XDR-TB cases) were reported in Singapore, and of these, 80% occurred among the foreign-born, with an increasing trend seen after 2004. Among new pulmonary TB cases, the highest incidence of MDR-TB occurred among patients from Myanmar (8%), followed by Vietnam (4.4%) and China (2.3%), while among those previously treated, the highest incidence was found in patients from Vietnam (50%), followed by Indonesia (33%) and Bangladesh (33%). Although the proportion of Singapore-born pulmonary TB cases with MDR-TB has remained comparatively low (0.2% and 1.3% in new and previously treated cases, respectively), there is no room for complacency. Top priority must be accorded toward the proper treatment of drug-susceptible TB cases under strict programme conditions so as to prevent the development of MDR-TB in the first place.