Phenological sensitivity to climate across taxa and trophic levels.

Differences in phenological responses to climate change among species can desynchronise ecological interactions and thereby threaten ecosystem function. To assess these threats, we must quantify the relative impact of climate change on species at different trophic levels. Here, we apply a Climate Sensitivity Profile approach to 10,003 terrestrial and aquatic phenological data sets, spatially matched to temperature and precipitation data, to quantify variation in climate sensitivity. The direction, magnitude and timing of climate sensitivity varied markedly among organisms within taxonomic and trophic groups. Despite this variability, we detected systematic variation in the direction and magnitude of phenological climate sensitivity. Secondary consumers showed consistently lower climate sensitivity than other groups. We used mid-century climate change projections to estimate that the timing of phenological events could change more for primary consumers than for species in other trophic levels (6.2 versus 2.5-2.9 days earlier on average), with substantial taxonomic variation (1.1-14.8 days earlier on average).

Complex and divergent histories gave rise to genome-wide divergence patterns amongst European whitefish (Coregonus lavaretus).

Pleistocene glaciations dramatically affected species distribution in regions that were impacted by ice cover and subsequent postglacial range expansion impacted contemporary biodiversity in complex ways. The European whitefish, Coregonus lavaretus, is a widely distributed salmonid fish species on mainland Europe, but in Britain it has only seven native populations, all of which are found on the western extremes of the island. The origins and colonization routes of the species into Britain are unknown but likely contributed to contemporary genetic patterns and regional uniqueness. Here, we used up to 25,751 genome-wide polymorphic loci to reconstruct the history and to discern the demographic and evolutionary forces underpinning divergence between British populations. Overall, we found lower genetic diversity in Scottish populations but high differentiation (FST  = 0.433-0.712) from the English/Welsh and other European populations. Differentiation was elevated genome-wide rather than in particular genomic regions. Demographic modelling supported a postglacial colonization into western Scotland from northern refugia and a separate colonization route for the English/Welsh populations from southern refugia, with these two groups having been separated for more than ca. 50 Ky. We found cyto-nuclear discordance at a European scale, with the Scottish populations clustering closely with Baltic population in the mtDNA analysis but not in the nuclear data, and with the Norwegian and Alpine populations displaying the same mtDNA haplotype but being distantly related in the nuclear tree. These findings suggest that neutral processes, primarily drift and regionally distinct pre-glacial evolutionary histories, are important drivers of genomic divergence in British populations of European whitefish. This sheds new light on the establishment of the native British freshwater fauna after the last glacial maximum.

Invasive non-native species likely to threaten biodiversity and ecosystems in the Antarctic Peninsula region.

The Antarctic is considered to be a pristine environment relative to other regions of the Earth, but it is increasingly vulnerable to invasions by marine, freshwater and terrestrial non-native species. The Antarctic Peninsula region (APR), which encompasses the Antarctic Peninsula, South Shetland Islands and South Orkney Islands, is by far the most invaded part of the Antarctica continent. The risk of introduction of invasive non-native species to the APR is likely to increase with predicted increases in the intensity, diversity and distribution of human activities. Parties that are signatories to the Antarctic Treaty have called for regional assessments of non-native species risk. In response, taxonomic and Antarctic experts undertook a horizon scanning exercise using expert opinion and consensus approaches to identify the species that are likely to present the highest risk to biodiversity and ecosystems within the APR over the next 10 years. One hundred and three species, currently absent in the APR, were identified as relevant for review, with 13 species identified as presenting a high risk of invading the APR. Marine invertebrates dominated the list of highest risk species, with flowering plants and terrestrial invertebrates also represented; however, vertebrate species were thought unlikely to establish in the APR within the 10 year timeframe. We recommend (a) the further development and application of biosecurity measures by all stakeholders active in the APR, including surveillance for species such as those identified during this horizon scanning exercise, and (b) use of this methodology across the other regions of Antarctica. Without the application of appropriate biosecurity measures, rates of introductions and invasions within the APR are likely to increase, resulting in negative consequences for the biodiversity of the whole continent, as introduced species establish and spread further due to climate change and increasing human activity.

Committing to place: the potential of open collaborations for trusted environmental governance.

Conventional modes of environmental governance, which typically exclude those stakeholders that are most directly linked to the specific place, frequently fail to have the desired impact. Using the example of lake water management in Loweswater, a small hamlet within the English Lake District, we consider the ways in which new "collectives" for local, bottom-up governance of water bodies can reframe problems in ways which both bind lay and professional people to place, and also recast the meaning of "solutions" in thought-provoking ways.

Environmental DNA metabarcoding of lake fish communities reflects long-term data from established survey methods.

Organisms continuously release DNA into their environments via shed cells, excreta, gametes and decaying material. Analysis of this 'environmental DNA' (eDNA) is revolutionizing biodiversity monitoring. eDNA outperforms many established survey methods for targeted detection of single species, but few studies have investigated how well eDNA reflects whole communities of organisms in natural environments. We investigated whether eDNA can recover accurate qualitative and quantitative information about fish communities in large lakes, by comparison to the most comprehensive long-term gill-net data set available in the UK. Seventy-eight 2L water samples were collected along depth profile transects, gill-net sites and from the shoreline in three large, deep lakes (Windermere, Bassenthwaite Lake and Derwent Water) in the English Lake District. Water samples were assayed by eDNA metabarcoding of the mitochondrial 12S and cytochrome b regions. Fourteen of the 16 species historically recorded in Windermere were detected using eDNA, compared to four species in the most recent gill-net survey, demonstrating eDNA is extremely sensitive for detecting species. A key question for biodiversity monitoring is whether eDNA can accurately estimate abundance. To test this, we used the number of sequence reads per species and the proportion of sampling sites in which a species was detected with eDNA (i.e. site occupancy) as proxies for abundance. eDNA abundance data consistently correlated with rank abundance estimates from established surveys. These results demonstrate that eDNA metabarcoding can describe fish communities in large lakes, both qualitatively and quantitatively, and has great potential as a complementary tool to established monitoring methods.

Fitness consequences of early life conditions and maternal size effects in a freshwater top predator.

Conditions experienced in early life stages can be an important determinant of individual life histories. In fish, environmental conditions are known to affect early survival and growth, but recent studies have also emphasized maternal effects mediated by size or age. However, the relative sensitivity of the mean fitness (population growth rate λ) to different early life impacts remains largely unexplored. Using a female-based integral projection model (IPM) parameterized from unique long-term demographic data for pike (Esox lucius), we evaluated the relative fitness consequences of different early life impacts, including (i) maternal effects of length on egg weight, potentially affecting offspring (first year) survival, and (ii) effects of temperature on offspring growth and survival. Of the seven vital rates defining the model, offspring survival could not be directly estimated and four scenarios were defined for this rate. Elasticity analyses of the IPM were performed to calculate (i) the total contribution from different lengths to the elasticity of λ to the projection kernel, and (ii) the elasticity of λ to underlying variables of female current length, female offspring length at age 1, and temperature. These elasticities were decomposed into contributions from different vital rates across length. Egg weight increased with female length, as expected, but the effect leveled off for the largest females. However, λ was largely insensitive to this effect, even when egg weight was assumed to have a strong effect on offspring survival. In contrast, λ was sensitive to early temperature conditions through growth and survival. Among mature females, the total elasticity of λ to the projection kernel generally increased with length. The results were robust to a wide range of assumptions. These results suggest that environmental conditions experienced in early life represent a more important driver of mean population growth and fitness of pike than maternal effects of size on offspring survival. We discuss two general mechanisms underlying the weak influence of this maternal effect, suggesting that these may be general for long-lived and highly fecund fishes. This model and results are relevant for the management of long-lived top predators, including many commercially important fish species.

Assessing the Legacy of Red Mud Pollution in a Shallow Freshwater Lake: Arsenic Accumulation and Speciation in Macrophytes.

Little is known about long-term ecological responses in lakes following red mud pollution. Among red mud contaminants, arsenic (As) is of considerable concern. Determination of the species of As accumulated in aquatic organisms provides important information about the biogeochemical cycling of the element and transfer through the aquatic food-web to higher organisms. We used coupled ion chromatography and inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) to assess As speciation in tissues of five macrophyte taxa in Kinghorn Loch, U.K., 30 years following the diversion of red mud pollution from the lake. Toxic inorganic As was the dominant species in the studied macrophytes, with As species concentrations varying with macrophyte taxon and tissue type. The highest As content measured in roots of Persicaria amphibia (L.) Gray (87.2 mg kg(-1)) greatly exceeded the 3-10 mg kg(-1) range suggested as a potential phytotoxic level. Accumulation of toxic As species by plants suggested toxicological risk to higher organisms known to utilize macrophytes as a food source.

Pathogens trigger top-down climate forcing on ecosystem dynamics.

Evaluating the effects of climate variation on ecosystems is of paramount importance for our ability to forecast and mitigate the consequences of global change. However, the ways in which complex food webs respond to climate variations remain poorly understood. Here, we use long-term time series to investigate the effects of temperature variation on the intraguild-predation (IGP) system of Windermere (UK), a lake where pike (Esox lucius, top predator) feed on small-sized perch (Perca fluviatilis) but compete with large-sized perch for the same food sources. Spectral analyses of time series reveal that pike recruitment dynamics are temperature controlled. In 1976, expansion of a size-truncating perch pathogen into the lake severely impacted large perch and favoured pike as the IGP-dominant species. This pathogen-induced regime shift to a pike-dominated IGP apparently triggered a temperature-controlled trophic cascade passing through pike down to dissolved nutrients. In simple food chains, warming is predicted to strengthen top-down control by accelerating metabolic rates in ectothermic consumers, while pathogens of top consumers are predicted to dampen this top-down control. In contrast, the local IGP structure in Windermere made warming and pathogens synergistic in their top-down effects on ecosystem functioning. More generally, our results point to top predators as major mediators of community response to global change, and show that size-selective agents (e.g. pathogens, fishers or hunters) may change the topological architecture of food webs and alter whole ecosystem sensitivity to climate variation.

Effects of climate change on trait-based dynamics of a top predator in freshwater ecosystems.

Predicted universal responses of ectotherms to climate warming include increased maximum population growth rate and changes in body size through the temperature-size rule. However, the mechanisms that would underlie these predicted responses are not clear. Many studies have focused on proximate mechanisms of physiological processes affecting individual growth. One can also consider ultimate mechanisms involving adaptive explanations by evaluating temperature effects on different vital rates across the life history and using the information in a population dynamical model. Here, we combine long-term data for a top predator in freshwater ecosystems (pike; Esox lucius) with a stochastic integral projection model to analyze concurrent effects of temperature on vital rates, body size, and population dynamics. As predicted, the net effect of warming on population growth rate (fitness) is positive, but the thermal sensitivity of this rate is highly size- and vital rate-dependent. These results are not sensitive to increasing variability in temperature. Somatic growth follows the temperature-size rule, and our results support an adaptive explanation for this response. The stable length structure of the population shifts with warming toward an increased proportion of medium-sized but a reduced proportion of small and large individuals. This study highlights how demographic approaches can help reveal complex underlying mechanisms for population responses to warming.

When phenology matters: age-size truncation alters population response to trophic mismatch.

Climate-induced shifts in the timing of life-history events are a worldwide phenomenon, and these shifts can de-synchronize species interactions such as predator-prey relationships. In order to understand the ecological implications of altered seasonality, we need to consider how shifts in phenology interact with other agents of environmental change such as exploitation and disease spread, which commonly act to erode the demographic structure of wild populations. Using long-term observational data on the phenology and dynamics of a model predator-prey system (fish and zooplankton in Windermere, UK), we show that age-size truncation of the predator population alters the consequences of phenological mismatch for offspring survival and population abundance. Specifically, age-size truncation reduces intraspecific density regulation due to competition and cannibalism, and thereby amplifies the population sensitivity to climate-induced predator-prey asynchrony, which increases variability in predator abundance. High population variability poses major ecological and economic challenges as it can diminish sustainable harvest rates and increase the risk of population collapse. Our results stress the importance of maintaining within-population age-size diversity in order to buffer populations against phenological asynchrony, and highlight the need to consider interactive effects of environmental impacts if we are to understand and project complex ecological outcomes.

Food web de-synchronization in England's largest lake: an assessment based on multiple phenological metrics.

Phenological changes have been observed globally for marine, freshwater and terrestrial species, and are an important element of the global biological 'fingerprint' of climate change. Differences in rates of change could desynchronize seasonal species interactions within a food web, threatening ecosystem functioning. Quantification of this risk is hampered by the rarity of long-term data for multiple interacting species from the same ecosystem and by the diversity of possible phenological metrics, which vary in their ecological relevance to food web interactions. We compare phenological change for phytoplankton (chlorophyll a), zooplankton (Daphnia) and fish (perch, Perca fluviatilis) in two basins of Windermere over 40 years and determine whether change has differed among trophic levels, while explicitly accounting for among-metric differences in rates of change. Though rates of change differed markedly among the nine metrics used, seasonal events shifted earlier for all metrics and trophic levels: zooplankton advanced most, and fish least, rapidly. Evidence of altered synchrony was found in both lake basins, when combining information from all phenological metrics. However, comparisons based on single metrics did not consistently detect this signal. A multimetric approach showed that across trophic levels, earlier phenological events have been associated with increasing water temperature. However, for phytoplankton and zooplankton, phenological change was also associated with changes in resource availability. Lower silicate, and higher phosphorus, concentrations were associated with earlier phytoplankton growth, and earlier phytoplankton growth was associated with earlier zooplankton growth. The developing trophic mismatch detected between the dominant fish species in Windermere and important zooplankton food resources may ultimately affect fish survival and portend significant impacts upon ecosystem functioning. We advocate that future studies on phenological synchrony combine data from multiple phenological metrics, to increase confidence in assessments of change and likely ecological consequences.

Can size distributions of European lake fish communities be predicted by trophic positions of their fish species?

An organism's body size plays an important role in ecological interactions such as predator-prey relationships. As predators are typically larger than their prey, this often leads to a strong positive relationship between body size and trophic position in aquatic ecosystems. The distribution of body sizes in a community can thus be an indicator of the strengths of predator-prey interactions. The aim of this study was to gain more insight into the relationship between fish body size distribution and trophic position in a wide range of European lakes. We used quantile regression to examine the relationship between fish species' trophic position and their log-transformed maximum body mass for 48 fish species found in 235 European lakes. Subsequently, we examined whether the slopes of the continuous community size distributions, estimated by maximum likelihood, were predicted by trophic position, predator-prey mass ratio (PPMR), or abundance (number per unit effort) of fish communities in these lakes. We found a positive linear relationship between species' maximum body mass and average trophic position in fishes only for the 75% quantile, contrasting our expectation that species' trophic position systematically increases with maximum body mass for fish species in European lakes. Consequently, the size spectrum slope was not related to the average community trophic position, but there were negative effects of community PPMR and total fish abundance on the size spectrum slope. We conclude that predator-prey interactions likely do not contribute strongly to shaping community size distributions in these lakes.

Pathogen-induced rapid evolution in a vertebrate life-history trait.

Anthropogenic factors, including climate warming, are increasing the incidence and prevalence of infectious diseases worldwide. Infectious diseases caused by pathogenic parasites can have severe impacts on host survival, thereby altering the selection regime and inducing evolutionary responses in their hosts. Knowledge about such evolutionary consequences in natural populations is critical to mitigate potential ecological and economic effects. However, studies on pathogen-induced trait changes are scarce and the pace of evolutionary change is largely unknown, particularly in vertebrates. Here, we use a time series from long-term monitoring of perch to estimate temporal trends in the maturation schedule before and after a severe pathogen outbreak. We show that the disease induced a phenotypic change from a previously increasing to a decreasing size at maturation, the most important life-history transition in animals. Evolutionary rates imposed by the pathogen were high and comparable to those reported for populations exposed to intense human harvesting. Pathogens thus represent highly potent drivers of adaptive phenotypic evolution in vertebrates.

Stage-specific biomass overcompensation by juveniles in response to increased adult mortality in a wild fish population.

Recently developed theoretical models of stage-structured consumer-resource systems have shown that stage-specific biomass overcompensation can arise in response to increased mortality rates. We parameterized a stage-structured population model to simulate the effects of increased adult mortality caused by a pathogen outbreak in the perch (Perca fluviatilis) population of Windermere (UK) in 1976. The model predicts biomass overcompensation by juveniles in response to increased adult mortality due to a shift in food-dependent growth and reproduction rates. Considering cannibalism between life stages in the model reinforces this compensatory response due to the release from predation on juveniles at high mortality rates. These model predictions are matched by our analysis of a 60-year time series of scientific monitoring of Windermere perch, which shows that the pathogen outbreak induced a strong decrease in adult biomass and a corresponding increase in juvenile biomass. Age-specific adult fecundity and size at age were higher after than before the disease outbreak, suggesting that the pathogen-induced mortality released adult perch from competition, thereby increasing somatic and reproductive growth. Higher juvenile survival after the pathogen outbreak due to a release from cannibalism likely contributed to the observed biomass overcompensation. Our findings have general implications for predicting population- and community-level responses to increased size-selective mortality caused by exploitation or disease outbreaks.

Antagonistic selection from predators and pathogens alters food-web structure.

Selection can alter predator-prey interactions. However, whether and how complex food-webs respond to selection remain largely unknown. We show in the field that antagonistic selection from predators and pathogens on prey body-size can be a primary driver of food-web functioning. In Windermere, U.K., pike (Esox lucius, the predator) selected against small perch (Perca fluviatilis, the prey), while a perch-specific pathogen selected against large perch. The strongest selective force drove perch trait change and ultimately determined the structure of trophic interactions. Before 1976, the strength of pike-induced selection overrode the strength of pathogen-induced selection and drove a change to larger, faster growing perch. Predation-driven increase in the proportion of large, infection-vulnerable perch presumably favored the pathogen since a peak in the predation pressure in 1976 coincided with pathogen expansion and a massive perch kill. After 1976, the strength of pathogen-induced selection overrode the strength of predator-induced selection and drove a rapid change to smaller, slower growing perch. These changes made perch easier prey for pike and weaker competitors against juvenile pike, ultimately increasing juvenile pike survival and total pike numbers. Therefore, although predators and pathogens exploited the same prey in Windermere, they did not operate competitively but synergistically by driving rapid prey trait change in opposite directions. Our study empirically demonstrates that a consideration of the relative strengths and directions of multiple selective pressures is needed to fully understand community functioning in nature.

Rapid adaptation through genomic and epigenomic responses following translocations in an endangered salmonid.

Identifying the molecular mechanisms facilitating adaptation to new environments is a key question in evolutionary biology, especially in the face of current rapid and human-induced changes. Translocations have become an important tool for species conservation, but the attendant small population sizes and new ecological pressures might affect phenotypic and genotypic variation and trajectories dramatically and in unknown ways. In Scotland, the European whitefish (Coregonus lavaretus) is native to only two lakes and vulnerable to extirpation. Six new refuge populations were established over the last 30 years as a conservation measure. In this study, we examined whether there is a predictable ecological and evolutionary response of these fishes to translocation. We found eco-morphological differences, as functional traits relating to body shape differed between source and refuge populations. Dual isotopic analyses suggested some ecological release, with the diets in refuge populations being more diverse than in source populations. Analyses of up to 9117 genome-mapped SNPs showed that refuge populations had reduced genetic diversity and elevated inbreeding and relatedness relative to source populations, though genomic differentiation was low (F ST = 0.002-0.030). We identified 14 genomic SNPs that showed shared signals of a selective response to translocations, including some located near or within genes involved in the immune system, nervous system and hepatic functions. Analysis of up to 120,897 epigenomic loci identified a component of consistent differential methylation between source and refuge populations. We found that epigenomic variation and genomic variation were associated with morphological variation, but we were not able to infer an effect of population age because the patterns were also linked with the methodology of the translocations. These results show that conservation-driven translocations affect evolutionary potential by impacting eco-morphological, genomic and epigenomic components of diversity, shedding light on acclimation and adaptation process in these contexts.

Body downsizing caused by non-consumptive social stress severely depresses population growth rate.

Chronic social stress diverts energy away from growth, reproduction and immunity, and is thus a potential driver of population dynamics. However, the effects of social stress on demographic density dependence remain largely overlooked in ecological theory. Here we combine behavioural experiments, physiology and population modelling to show in a top predator (pike Esox lucius) that social stress alone may be a primary driver of demographic density dependence. Doubling pike density in experimental ponds under controlled prey availability did not significantly change prey intake by pike (i.e. did not significantly change interference or exploitative competition), but induced a neuroendocrine stress response reflecting a size-dependent dominance hierarchy, depressed pike energetic status and lowered pike body growth rate by 23 per cent. Assuming fixed size-dependent survival and fecundity functions parameterized for the Windermere (UK) pike population, stress-induced smaller body size shifts age-specific survival rates and lowers age-specific fecundity, which in Leslie matrices projects into reduced population rate of increase (lambda) by 37-56%. Our models also predict that social stress flattens elasticity profiles of lambda to age-specific survival and fecundity, thus making population persistence more dependent on old individuals. Our results suggest that accounting for non-consumptive social stress from competitors and predators is necessary to accurately understand, predict and manage food-web dynamics.

Harvest-induced disruptive selection increases variance in fitness-related traits.

The form of Darwinian selection has important ecological and management implications. Negative effects of harvesting are often ascribed to size truncation (i.e. strictly directional selection against large individuals) and resultant decrease in trait variability, which depresses capacity to buffer environmental change, hinders evolutionary rebound and ultimately impairs population recovery. However, the exact form of harvest-induced selection is generally unknown and the effects of harvest on trait variability remain unexplored. Here we use unique data from the Windermere (UK) long-term ecological experiment to show in a top predator (pike, Esox lucius) that the fishery does not induce size truncation but disruptive (diversifying) selection, and does not decrease but rather increases variability in pike somatic growth rate and size at age. This result is supported by complementary modelling approaches removing the effects of catch selectivity, selection prior to the catch and environmental variation. Therefore, fishing most likely increased genetic variability for somatic growth in pike and presumably favoured an observed rapid evolutionary rebound after fishery relaxation. Inference about the mechanisms through which harvesting negatively affects population numbers and recovery should systematically be based on a measure of the exact form of selection. From a management perspective, disruptive harvesting necessitates combining a preservation of large individuals with moderate exploitation rates, and thus provides a comprehensive tool for sustainable exploitation of natural resources.

Effects of size- and sex-selective harvesting: An integral projection model approach.

Harvesting is often size-selective, and in species with sexual size dimorphism, it may also be sex-selective. A powerful approach to investigate potential consequences of size- and/or sex-selective harvesting is to simulate it in a demographic population model. We developed a population-based integral projection model for a size- and sex-structured species, the commonly exploited pike (Esox lucius). The model allows reproductive success to be proportional to body size and potentially limited by both sexes. We ran all harvest simulations with both lower size limits and slot limits, and to quantify the effects of selective harvesting, we calculated sex ratios and the long-term population growth rate (λ). In addition, we quantified to what degree purely size-selective harvesting was sex-selective, and determined when λ shifted from being female to male limited under size- and sex-selective harvesting. We found that purely size-selective harvest can be sex-selective, and that it depends on the harvest limits and the size distributions of the sexes. For the size- and sex-selective harvest simulations, λ increased with harvest intensity up to a threshold as females limited reproduction. Beyond this threshold, males became the limiting sex, and λ decreased as more males were harvested. The peak in λ, and the corresponding sex ratio in harvest, varied with both the selectivity and the intensity of the harvest simulation. Our model represents a useful extension of size-structured population models as it includes both sexes, relaxes the assumption of female dominance, and accounts for size-dependent fecundity. The consequences of selective harvesting presented here are especially relevant for size- and sex-structured exploited species, such as commercial fisheries. Thus, our model provides a useful contribution toward the development of more sustainable harvesting regimes.

Four decades of opposing natural and human-induced artificial selection acting on Windermere pike (Esox lucius).

The ability of natural selection to drive local adaptation has been appreciated ever since Darwin. Whether human impacts can impede the adaptive process has received less attention. We tested this hypothesis by quantifying natural selection and harvest selection acting on a freshwater fish (pike) over four decades. Across the time series, directional natural selection tended to favour large individuals whereas the fishery targeted large individuals. Moreover, non-linear natural selection tended to favour intermediate sized fish whereas the fishery targeted intermediate sized fish because the smallest and largest individuals were often not captured. Thus, our results unequivocally demonstrate that natural selection and fishery selection often acted in opposite directions within this natural system. Moreover, the two selective factors combined to produce reduced fitness overall and stronger stabilizing selection relative to natural selection acting alone. The long-term ramifications of such human-induced modifications to adaptive landscapes are currently unknown and certainly warrant further investigation.