Prevalence and Correlates of Viral Load Suppression and Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) Drug Resistance Among Children and Adolescents in South Rift Valley and Kisumu, Kenya.

BACKGROUND: Children and adolescents living with HIV (CALHIV) face unique challenges, including poorer treatment outcomes, risk for drug-resistance mutations (HIVDRMs), and limited drug formulations. We estimated viral suppression (VS) prevalence and evaluated predictors of VS and HIVDRMs in Kenya. METHODS: From 2018-2020, CALHIV 1-19 years on antiretroviral therapy (ART) >6 months were enrolled in this cross-sectional study. Participants underwent viral load (VL) testing; those with VL ≥1000 copies/mL had HIVDRM testing. Sociodemographic questionnaires and medical record abstraction were completed. VS prevalence (VL <1000 copies/mL) was estimated; robust Poisson regression models were used to estimate prevalence ratios (PRs) and 95% CIs for associations between potential predictors of VS. RESULTS: Nine hundred and sixty-nine participants were enrolled. VS prevalence was .80 (95% CI: .78-.83). Being on ART >24 months (adjusted PR [aPR]: 1.22; 95% CI: 1.06-1.41), an integrase strand transfer inhibitor-containing regimen (1.13; 1.02-1.26), and attending a level 3 health facility (1.23; 1.11-1.36) were associated with VS. Missing ≥3 doses of ART in the past month (aPR: .73; 95% CI: .58-.92), having a viremic mother with HIV (.72; .53-.98), and having 3-7 (.90; .83-.97), 8-13 (.89; .82-.97), or ≥14 (.84; .77-.92) compared with <2 adherence counseling referrals were inversely associated with VS. A high proportion (n = 119, 81.5%) of unsuppressed participants had evidence of any major HIVDRM. CONCLUSIONS: HIV treatment programs should target interventions for pediatric patients at risk for treatment failure-namely, those with a caregiver with failed VS and those struggling with adherence.

Characteristics and Outcomes of Pediatric Patients With Ebola Virus Disease Admitted to Treatment Units in Liberia and Sierra Leone: A Retrospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: The clinical and virologic characteristics of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in children have not been thoroughly documented. METHODS: Consecutive children aged <18 years with real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR)-confirmed EVD were enrolled retrospectively in 5 Ebola treatment units in Liberia and Sierra Leone in 2014/2015. Data collection and medical management were based on standardized International Medical Corps protocols. We performed descriptive statistics, multivariate logistic regression, and Kaplan-Meier survival analyses. RESULTS: Of 122 children enrolled, the median age was 7 years and one-third were aged <5 years. The female-to-male ratio was 1.3. The most common clinical features at triage and during hospitalization were fever, weakness, anorexia, and diarrhea, although 21% of patients were initially afebrile and 6 patients remained afebrile. Bleeding was rare at presentation (5%) and manifested subsequently in fewer than 50%. The overall case fatality rate was 57%. Factors associated with death in bivariate analyses were age <5 years, bleeding at any time during hospitalization, and high viral load. After adjustment with logistic regression modeling, the odds of death were 14.8-fold higher if patients were aged <5 years, 5-fold higher if the patient had any evidence of bleeding, and 5.2-fold higher if EVD RT-PCR cycle threshold value was ≤20. Plasmodium parasitemia had no impact on EVD outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Age <5 years, bleeding, and high viral loads were poor prognostic indicators of children with EVD. Research to understand mechanisms of these risk factors and the impact of dehydration and electrolyte imbalance will improve health outcomes.

Ebola Virus Disease and Pregnancy: A Retrospective Cohort Study of Patients Managed at 5 Ebola Treatment Units in West Africa.

BACKGROUND: Reliable data are lacking on pregnancy outcomes during Ebola virus disease (EVD) epidemics. We aimed to characterize symptoms and outcomes among pregnant women admitted to Ebola treatment units (ETUs) with suspected and confirmed EVD to better inform obstetric management. METHODS: We analyzed a retrospective cohort of reproductive-aged women presenting to 5 West African ETUs from September 2014 to September 2015. We compared clinical symptoms, risk of EVD diagnosis, and mortality between pregnant and nonpregnant women. RESULTS: Of 729 reproductive-aged women admitted to study ETUs, 44 (6%) reported pregnancy. Thirteen of 44 pregnant women (30%) tested EVD positive; 6 of 13 (46%) died. Pregnant women were less likely than nonpregnant women to report anorexia, asthenia, diarrhea, fever, myalgias/arthralgias, nausea, or vomiting (P < .05) at admission. Pregnant women with suspected EVD had the same risk, however, of laboratory-confirmed EVD (30% vs 24%, P = .38). While pregnant women with confirmed EVD had similar Ebola viral loads on presentation to nonpregnant women, as measured by initial cycle threshold (26.4 vs 23.2, P = .16), they were less likely to have myalgias/arthralgias (P< .001) and vomiting (P = .02). Both all-cause mortality (14% vs 19%, P = .39) and EVD-specific mortality (46% vs 54%, P = .60) were not significantly different between pregnant and nonpregnant women. Two neonates born live in the ETU died within 8 days. CONCLUSIONS: We find no evidence to support a difference in the risk of death between pregnant women with suspected or confirmed EVD compared to nonpregnant women. Limited data suggest poor fetal and neonatal outcomes in EVD-affected pregnancies.

Oxygen saturation can predict pediatric pneumonia in a resource-limited setting.

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends using age-specific respiratory rates for diagnosing pneumonia in children. Past studies have evaluated the WHO criteria with mixed results. OBJECTIVE: We examined the accuracy of clinical and laboratory factors for diagnosing pediatric pneumonia in resource-limited settings. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective chart review of children under 5 years of age presenting with respiratory complaints to three rural hospitals in Rwanda who had received a chest radiograph. Data were collected on the presence or absence of 31 historical, clinical, and laboratory signs. Chest radiographs were interpreted by pediatric radiologists as the gold standard for diagnosing pneumonia. Overall correlation and test characteristics were calculated for each categorical variable as compared to the gold standard. For continuous variables, we created receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves to determine their accuracy for predicting pneumonia. RESULTS: Between May 2011 and April 2012, data were collected from 147 charts of children with respiratory complaints. Approximately 58% of our sample had radiologist-diagnosed pneumonia. Of the categorical variables, a negative blood smear for malaria (χ(2) = 6.21, p = 0.013) and the absence of history of asthma (χ(2) = 4.48, p = 0.034) were statistically associated with pneumonia. Of the continuous variables, only oxygen saturation had a statistically significant area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.675 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.581-0.769 and p = 0.001). Respiratory rate had an AUC of 0.528 (95% CI 0.428-0.627 and p = 0.588). CONCLUSION: Oxygen saturation was the best clinical predictor for pediatric pneumonia and should be further studied in a prospective sample of children with respiratory symptoms in a resource-limited setting.

Factors Associated With Viral Suppression and Drug Resistance in Children and Adolescents Living With HIV in Care and Treatment Programs in Southern Tanzania.

BACKGROUND: Achieving viral suppression (VS) for persons living with HIV is key to reaching epidemic control. We assessed the prevalence of VS and the frequency of HIV drug resistance mutations (HIVDRM) among children and adolescents living with HIV (CALHIV) in the Southern Highland zone of Tanzania. METHODS: From 2019 to 2021, we enrolled CALHIV aged 1-19 years on ART for >6 months in a cross-sectional study. Participants had viral load (VL) testing; those with VL ≥ 1000 copies/mL underwent HIVDRM testing. VS (<1000 copies/mL) prevalence estimates were calculated and robust Poisson regression was used to estimate prevalence ratios (PRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for associations with potential predictors of VS. RESULTS: Of 707 participants, 595 had VS (PR: 0.84, 95% CI: 0.81-0.87). Use of an integrase strand transfer inhibitor-containing regimen (aPR 1.15, 95% CI: 0.99-1.34), age 5-9 years (aPR 1.16, 95% CI: 1.07-1.26), and seeking care at a referral center (aPR 1.12, 95% CI: 1.04-1.21) were associated with VS. Factors inversely associated with VS included having one (aPR 0.82, 95% CI: 0.72-0.92) or two or more (aPR 0.79, 95% CI: 0.66-0.94) referrals for adherence counselling, and self-reporting missing one to two (aPR 0.88, 95% CI: 0.78-0.99) or three or more (aPR 0.77, 95% CI: 0.63-0.92) doses of ART in the past month. Of 74 participants with PRRT and INT sequencing done, 60 (81.1%) had HIVDRMs at the following frequencies: 71.6%, 67.6%, 1.4%, and 4.1% for major NNRTI, NRTI, PI, and INSTI respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Higher rates of VS were observed in this cohort, and HIVDRMs were common in those without VS. This evidence supports ART optimization using dolutegravir-based regimens. However, better strategies to improve adherence are needed.

Machine-learning Prognostic Models from the 2014-16 Ebola Outbreak: Data-harmonization Challenges, Validation Strategies, and mHealth Applications.

BACKGROUND: Ebola virus disease (EVD) plagues low-resource and difficult-to-access settings. Machine learning prognostic models and mHealth tools could improve the understanding and use of evidence-based care guidelines in such settings. However, data incompleteness and lack of interoperability limit model generalizability. This study harmonizes diverse datasets from the 2014-16 EVD epidemic and generates several prognostic models incorporated into the novel Ebola Care Guidelines app that provides informed access to recommended evidence-based guidelines. METHODS: Multivariate logistic regression was applied to investigate survival outcomes in 470 patients admitted to five Ebola treatment units in Liberia and Sierra Leone at various timepoints during 2014-16. We generated a parsimonious model (viral load, age, temperature, bleeding, jaundice, dyspnea, dysphagia, and time-to-presentation) and several fallback models for when these variables are unavailable. All were externally validated against two independent datasets and compared to further models including expert observational wellness assessments. Models were incorporated into an app highlighting the signs/symptoms with the largest contribution to prognosis. FINDINGS: The parsimonious model approached the predictive power of observational assessments by experienced clinicians (Area-Under-the-Curve, AUC = 0.70-0.79, accuracy = 0.64-0.74) and maintained its performance across subcohorts with different healthcare seeking behaviors. Age and viral load contributed > 5-fold the weighting of other features and including them in a minimal model had a similar AUC, albeit at the cost of specificity. INTERPRETATION: Clinically guided prognostic models can recapitulate clinical expertise and be useful when such expertise is unavailable. Incorporating these models into mHealth tools may facilitate their interpretation and provide informed access to comprehensive clinical guidelines. FUNDING: Howard Hughes Medical Institute, US National Institutes of Health, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, International Medical Corps, UK Department for International Development, and GOAL Global.

Association of the US President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief's Funding With Prevention of Mother-to-Child Transmission of HIV in Kenya.

Importance: From 2004 to 2014, the US President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) invested more than $248 000 000 in the prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) of HIV in Kenya. Concurrently, child mortality in Kenya decreased by half. Objective: To identify the extent to which the decrease in child mortality in Kenya is associated with PEPFAR funding for PMTCT of HIV. Design, Setting, and Participants: This population-based survey study conducted in Kenya estimated the association between annual per capita PEPFAR funding for PMTCT (annual PCF) and cumulative per capita PEPFAR funding for PMTCT (cumulative PCF), extracted using 2004-2014 country operational reports as well as individual-level health outcomes, extracted from the 2003, 2008-2009, and 2014 Kenya Demographic and Health Surveys and the 2007 and 2012 Kenya AIDS Indicator Surveys. The study included children of female respondents to the 2003, 2008-2009, and 2014 Kenya Demographic and Health Surveys who were born 1 to 60 months (for neonatal mortality) or 12 to 60 months (for infant mortality) before the survey, as well as female respondents who had recently given birth and reported on HIV testing during antenatal care (ANC) during the 2007-2014 surveys. Results were adjusted for year, province, and survey respondent characteristics. Statistical analysis was performed from July 8, 2016, to December 10, 2018. Main Outcomes and Measures: Neonatal mortality was defined as death within the first month of life and infant mortality was defined as death within the first year of life. HIV testing during ANC was defined as receiving counseling on PMTCT, undergoing an HIV test, and receiving test results during ANC. Results: The analysis included 33 181 neonates (16 870 boys), 26 876 infants (13 679 boys), and 20 775 mothers (mean [SD] age, 28.0 [6.7] years). PEPFAR funding was not associated with neonatal mortality. A $0.33 increase in annual PCF, corresponding to the difference between the 75th and 25th (interquartile range) percentiles of funding, was significantly associated with a 16% (95% CI, 4%-27%) reduction in infant mortality after a 1-year lag. A 14% to 16% reduction persisted after 2- and 3-year lags, and comparable reductions were observed for unlagged and 1-year lagged cumulative PCF. An increase of 1 interquartile range in cumulative PCF was associated with a 7% (95% CI, 3%-11%) increase in HIV testing during ANC, which intensified with subsequent lags. Between 2004 and 2014, sustained funding levels of $0.33 annual PCF could have averted 118 039 to 273 924 infant deaths. Conclusions and Relevance: Evidence from publicly available data suggests that PEPFAR's PMTCT funding was associated with a reduction in infant mortality and an increase in HIV testing during ANC in Kenya. The full outcome of funding may not be realized until several years after allocation.

The Enhanced Mentor Mother ProgrAm (EMMA) for the prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV in Kenya: study protocol for a cluster randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: As of September 2014, Kenya implemented the WHO recommended Option B+ guidelines in which all newly diagnosed HIV-infected pregnant women are immediately eligible for triple antiretroviral therapy (ART) for life regardless of CD4 count. In addition, Kenya previously established the Kenya Mentor Mother Program (KMMP) in 2012 to improve peer education and psychosocial support services within the national prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) program. The primary objectives of the study described in the current protocol are: (1) to evaluate implementation of these new guidelines (Option B+ with Mentor Mothers) as part of routine service delivery; and (2) to evaluate potential benefits of a package of services within the KMMP (called EMMA) to improve PMTCT service delivery. METHODS: We will conduct a cluster randomized controlled trial in western Kenya. We will allocate 12 clinics providing PMTCT services including ART to two study arms using pair matching: the standard of care (SOC) arm, which includes the KMMP as implemented by the clinics; and the intervention arm, which is the SOC (including KMMP) with the EMMA package of services (a targeted exit interview, visit reminders, and targeted follow-up). At the intervention clinics, the EMMA package of services is implemented as part of routine service delivery. A total of 360 (180 in each arm) pregnant women will be enrolled in the study at or near their first visit for antenatal care for prospective records review through 72 weeks post-partum. The primary and secondary outcomes are uninterrupted supplies of ART medications throughout the PMTCT cascade of care as well as infants completing HIV testing on schedule. DISCUSSION: The EMMA package of services provides specific structure to the use of Mentor Mothers within PMTCT programs. This strategy was developed in collaboration with local health facility and PMTCT program staff based on their experience providing PMTCT services within the integrated ART-MCH facilities. If successful, this approach has the potential to improve dramatically PMTCT service delivery with minor additional costs beyond the basic mother-mentor program and support global goals to eliminate mother-to-child transmission. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02848235 . Registered on 19 July 2016.

The natural history of acute Ebola Virus Disease among patients managed in five Ebola treatment units in West Africa: A retrospective cohort study.

INTRODUCTION: Previous studies of Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) have focused on clinical symptoms and Ebola virus (EBOV) cycle threshold (CT) values recorded at patient triage. Our study explores EVD symptoms and EBOV CT values from onset of illness to recovery or death in a diverse population of patients. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We analyzed clinical care data from EBOV positive patients admitted to five Ebola treatment units in West Africa from 2014-2015. Prevalence of clinical signs/symptoms and CT values were explored using descriptive statistics. Logistic regression was used to examine their association with mortality. Survival was analyzed using Kaplan-Meier estimators from symptom onset date to death. During the first week of illness, dyspnea (OR = 2.44, 95% CI: 1.07-5.85) and tachycardia (OR = 10.22, 95% CI: 2.20-56.71) were associated with higher odds of mortality. Dyspnea (OR = 2.33, 95% CI: 1.210-4.581), bleeding (OR = 2.51, 95% CI: 1.219-5.337), and diarrhoea (OR = 2.79, 95% CI: 1.171-6.970) at any point during the illness course were associated with higher odds of mortality. Higher initial (OR = 0.85, 95% CI: 0.81-0.89) and mean (OR = 0.60, 95% CI: 0.53-0.66) CT values were associated with lower odds of mortality. CT values reached their nadir after 3-5 days of illness and then rose in both survivors and non-survivors until recovery or death. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our study demonstrates the population prevalence of clinical signs/symptoms and EBOV CT values over time in a large, diverse cohort of patients with EVD, as well as associations between symptoms/EBOV CT values and mortality. These findings have implications on surveillance, operational planning, and clinical care for future EVD outbreaks.

Early clinical sequelae of Ebola virus disease in Sierra Leone: a cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Limited data are available on the prevalence and predictors of clinical sequelae in survivors of Ebola virus disease (EVD). The EVD Survivor Clinic in Port Loko, Sierra Leone, has provided clinical care for 603 of 661 survivors living in the district. We did a cross-sectional study to describe the prevalence, nature, and predictors of three key EVD sequelae (ocular, auditory, and articular) in this cohort of EVD survivors. METHODS: We reviewed available clinical and laboratory records of consecutive patients assessed in the clinic between March 7, 2015, and April 24, 2015. We used univariate and multiple logistic regression to examine clinical and laboratory features of acute EVD with the following outcomes in convalescence: new ocular symptoms, uveitis, auditory symptoms, and arthralgias. FINDINGS: Among 277 survivors (59% female), median age was 29 years (IQR 20-36) and median time from discharge from an EVD treatment facility to first survivor clinic visit was 121 days (82-151). Clinical sequelae were common, including arthralgias (n=210, 76%), new ocular symptoms (n=167, 60%), uveitis (n=50, 18%), and auditory symptoms (n=67, 24%). Higher Ebola viral load at acute EVD presentation (as shown by lower cycle thresholds on real-time RT-PCR testing) was independently associated with uveitis (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 3·33, 95% CI 1·87-5·91, for every five-point decrease in cycle threshold) and with new ocular symptoms or ocular diagnoses (aOR 3·04, 95% CI 1·87-4·94). INTERPRETATION: Clinical sequelae during early EVD convalescence are common and sometimes sight threatening. These findings underscore the need for early clinical follow-up of survivors of EVD and urgent provision of ocular care as part of health systems strengthening in EVD-affected west African countries. FUNDING: Canadian Institutes of Health Research.