Development and validation of a nomogram combining pain score with laboratory indicators for predicting persistent organ failure in acute pancreatitis: a retrospective cohort study.

Background: Acute pancreatitis is an inflammatory disease that can lead to persistent organ failure (POF), which is associated with increased morbidity and mortality. Early prediction of POF in AP can significantly improve patient outcomes. Objective: To develop and validate a nomogram that combines pain score with laboratory indicators for predicting POF in patients with AP. Methods: A retrospective cohort study was conducted, including patients diagnosed with AP. Pain score and laboratory indicators were collected within the first 24 h of admission. A nomogram was developed using logistic regression models and validated in a separate cohort. Results: There were 807 patients in the training cohort and 375 patients in the internal validation cohort.Multivariate logistic regression demonstrated that pain score, serum creatinine, hematocrit, serum calcium, and serum albumin were independent risk factors for the incidence of POF in patients with AP. The area under the curve of the nomogram constructed from the above factors were 0.924, respectively. The model demonstrated good calibration and discrimination in both the development and validation cohorts. Conclusion: The nomogram had a good performance in predicting POF in patients with AP and can be used to guide clinical decision-making.

Nomogram and Web Calculator Based on Lasso-Logistic Regression for Predicting Persistent Organ Failure in Acute Pancreatitis Patients.

Purpose: Acute pancreatitis is a common gastrointestinal emergency. Approximately 20% of patients with acute pancreatitis develop organ failure, which is significantly associated with adverse outcomes. This study aimed to establish an early prediction model for persistent organ failure in acute pancreatitis patients using 24-hour admission indicators. Patients and Methods: Clinical data and 24-h laboratory indicators of patients diagnosed with acute pancreatitis from January 1, 2017 to January 1, 2022 in Shanxi Bethune Hospital were collected. Patients from 2017 to 2021 were used as the training cohort to establish the prediction model, and patients from 2021 to 2022 were used as the validation cohort. Univariate logistic regression and LASSO regression were used to establish prediction models. The performance of the model was evaluated using area under the curve (AUC), calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA), and subsequently validated in the validation group. Results: A total of 1166 patients with acute pancreatitis were included, a total of 145 patients suffered from persistent organ failure from 2017 to 2021. Data were initially selected for 100 variables, and after inclusion and exclusion, 46 variables were used for further analysis. Two prediction models were established and nomogram was drawn respectively. After comparison, the prediction values of the two models were similar (The univariate model AUC was 0.867, 95% CI (0.834-0.9). The LASSO model AUC was 0.864, 95% CI (0.828-0.895)), and the model established by LASSO regression was more parsimonious. A web calculator was developed using the model established by LASSO. Conclusion: Predictive model including 6 risk indicators can be used to predict the risk of persistent organ failure in patients with acute pancreatitis.

Clinical study of neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio and platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio in hypertriglyceridemia-induced acute pancreatitis and acute biliary pancreatitis with persistent organ failure.

BACKGROUND: The neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) are novel inflammatory indicators that can be used to predict the severity and prognosis of various diseases. We categorize acute pancreatitis by etiology into acute biliary pancreatitis (ABP) and hypertriglyceridemia-induced acute pancreatitis (HTGP). AIM: To investigate the clinical significance of NLR and PLR in assessing persistent organ failure (POF) in HTGP and ABP. METHODS: A total of 1450 patients diagnosed with acute pancreatitis (AP) for the first time at Shanxi Bethune Hospital between January 2012 and January 2023 were enrolled. The patients were categorized into two groups according to the etiology of AP: ABP in 530 patients and HTGP in 241 patients. We collected and compared the clinical data of the patients, including NLR, PLR, and AP prognostic scoring systems, within 48 h of hospital admission. RESULTS: The NLR (9.1 vs 6.9, P < 0.001) and PLR (203.1 vs 160.5, P < 0.001) were significantly higher in the ABP group than in the HTGP group. In the HTGP group, both NLR and PLR were significantly increased in patients with severe AP and those with a SOFA score ≥ 3. Likewise, in the ABP group, NLR and PLR were significantly elevated in patients with severe AP, modified computed tomography severity index score ≥ 4, Japanese Severity Score ≥ 3, and modified Marshall score ≥ 2. Moreover, NLR and PLR showed predictive value for the development of POF in both the ABP and HTGP groups. CONCLUSION: NLR and PLR vary between ABP and HTGP, are strongly associated with AP prognostic scoring systems, and have predictive potential for the occurrence of POF in both ABP and HTGP.

Brucella infection-induced hemophagocytic syndrome with subsequent development of the probable vanishing bile duct syndrome: A case report and literature review.

Vanishing bile duct syndrome is a rare clinical manifestation, and many clinicians tend to classify vanishing bile duct syndrome as a surgical disease and perform emergency surgery, leading to poor prognosis for patients. In this report, we present a case of a patient initially diagnosed with probable vanishing bile duct syndrome. However, through a meticulous step-by-step investigation, we ultimately determined that the patient was suffering from Brucella infection-induced hemophagocytic syndrome, which contributed to the development of the probable vanishing bile duct syndrome. Once a definitive diagnosis was established, the patient underwent treatment following anti-Brucella and Hemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis-2004 protocols, leading to an improvement in the patient's condition. We conducted a literature review on brucellosis, and it demonstrated the lack of specificity in diagnosing Brucella infections and the diverse range of clinical manifestations. Failure to arrive at a definitive diagnosis may result in clinical misdiagnosis and delayed treatment, thereby leading to grave consequences.