On the Dynamics of Mortality and the Ephemeral Nature of Mammalian Megafauna.

AbstractEnergy flow through consumer-resource interactions is largely determined by body size. Allometric relationships govern the dynamics of populations by impacting rates of reproduction as well as alternative sources of mortality, which have differential impacts on smaller to larger organisms. Here we derive and investigate the timescales associated with four alternative sources of mortality for terrestrial mammals: mortality from starvation, mortality associated with aging, mortality from consumption by predators, and mortality introduced by anthropogenic subsidized harvest. The incorporation of these allometric relationships into a minimal consumer-resource model illuminates central constraints that may contribute to the structure of mammalian communities. Our framework reveals that while starvation largely impacts smaller-bodied species, the allometry of senescence is expected to be more difficult to observe. In contrast, external predation and subsidized harvest have greater impacts on the populations of larger-bodied species. Moreover, the inclusion of predation mortality reveals mass thresholds for mammalian herbivores, where dynamic instabilities may limit the feasibility of megafaunal populations. We show how these thresholds vary with alternative predator-prey mass relationships, which are not well understood within terrestrial systems. Finally, we use our framework to predict the harvest pressure required to induce mass-specific extinctions, which closely align with previous estimates of anthropogenic megafaunal exploitation in both paleontological and historical contexts. Together our results underscore the tenuous nature of megafaunal populations and how different sources of mortality may contribute to their ephemeral nature over evolutionary time.

Beyond the kill: The allometry of predation behaviours among large carnivores.

The costs of foraging can be high while also carrying significant risks, especially for consumers feeding at the top of the food chain. To mitigate these risks, many predators supplement active hunting with scavenging and kleptoparasitic behaviours, in some cases specializing in these alternative modes of predation. The factors that drive differential utilization of these tactics from species to species are not well understood. Here, we use an energetics approach to investigate the survival advantages of hunting, scavenging and kleptoparasitism as a function of predator, prey and potential competitor body sizes for terrestrial mammalian carnivores. The results of our framework reveal that predator tactics become more diverse closer to starvation, while the deployment of scavenging and kleptoparasitism is strongly constrained by the ratio of predator to prey body size. Our model accurately predicts a behavioural transition away from hunting towards alternative modes of predation with increasing prey size for predators spanning an order of magnitude in body size, closely matching observational data across a range of species. We then show that this behavioural boundary follows an allometric power-law scaling relationship where the predator size scales with an exponent nearing 3/4 with prey size, meaning that this behavioural switch occurs at relatively larger threshold prey body size for larger carnivores. We suggest that our approach may provide a holistic framework for guiding future observational efforts exploring the diverse array of predator foraging behaviours.

Scaling the risk landscape drives optimal life-history strategies and the evolution of grazing.

Consumers face numerous risks that can be minimized by incorporating different life-history strategies. How much and when a consumer adds to its energetic reserves or invests in reproduction are key behavioral and physiological adaptations that structure communities. Here we develop a theoretical framework that explicitly accounts for stochastic fluctuations of an individual consumer's energetic reserves while foraging and reproducing on a landscape with resources that range from uniformly distributed to highly clustered. First, we show that the selection of alternative life histories depends on both the mean and variance of resource availability, where depleted and more stochastic environments promote investment in each reproductive event at the expense of future fitness as well as more investment per offspring. We then show that if resource variance scales with body size due to landscape clustering, consumers that forage for clustered foods are susceptible to strong Allee effects, increasing extinction risk. Finally, we show that the proposed relationship between resource distributions, consumer body size, and emergent demographic risk offers key ecological insights into the evolution of large-bodied grazing herbivores from small-bodied browsing ancestors.

Decoding the dynamics of dental distributions: insights from shark demography and dispersal.

Shark teeth are one of the most abundant vertebrate fossils, and because tooth size generally correlates with body size, their accumulations document the size structure of populations. Understanding how ecological and environmental processes influence size structure, and how this extends to influence these dental distributions, may offer a window into the ecological and environmental dynamics of past and present shark populations. Here, we examine the dental distributions of sand tigers, including extant Carcharias taurus and extinct Striatolamia macrota, to reconstruct the size structure for a contemporary locality and four Eocene localities. We compare empirical distributions against expectations from a population simulation to gain insight into potential governing ecological processes. Specifically, we investigate the influence of dispersal flexibility to and from protected nurseries. We show that changing the flexibility of initial dispersal of juveniles from the nursery and annual migration of adults to the nursery explains a large amount of dental distribution variability. Our framework predicts dispersal strategies of an extant sand tiger population, and supports nurseries as important components of sand tiger life history in both extant and Eocene populations. These results suggest nursery protection may be vital for shark conservation with increasing anthropogenic impacts and climate change.

Caching in or Falling Back at the Sevilleta: The Effects of Body Size and Seasonal Uncertainty on Desert Rodent Foraging.

Foraging in uncertain environments requires balancing the risks associated with finding alternative resources against potential gains. In arid-land environments characterized by extreme variation in the amount and seasonal timing of primary production, consumers must weigh the risks associated with foraging for preferred seeds that can be cached against fallback foods of low nutritional quality (e.g., leaves) that must be consumed immediately. Here, we explore the influence of resource scarcity, body size, and seasonal uncertainty on the expected foraging behaviors of caching rodents in the northern Chihuahaun Desert by integrating these elements with a stochastic dynamic program to determine fitness-maximizing foraging strategies. We demonstrate that resource-limited environments promote dependence on fallback foods, reducing the likelihood of starvation while increasing future risk exposure. Our results point to a qualitative difference in the use of fallback foods and the fitness benefits of caching at the threshold body size of 50 g. Above this 50-g body size threshold, we observe large fitness gains associated with the maintenance of even a modest-sized cache, whereas similar gains for smaller consumers require maintenance of unrealistically large caches. This suggests that larger-bodied consumers that cache may be less sensitive to the future uncertainties in monsoonal onset predicted by global climate scenarios, whereas smaller consumers, regardless of caching behavior, may be at greater risk.

Collapse of an ecological network in Ancient Egypt.

The dynamics of ecosystem collapse are fundamental to determining how and why biological communities change through time, as well as the potential effects of extinctions on ecosystems. Here, we integrate depictions of mammals from Egyptian antiquity with direct lines of paleontological and archeological evidence to infer local extinctions and community dynamics over a 6,000-y span. The unprecedented temporal resolution of this dataset enables examination of how the tandem effects of human population growth and climate change can disrupt mammalian communities. We show that the extinctions of mammals in Egypt were nonrandom and that destabilizing changes in community composition coincided with abrupt aridification events and the attendant collapses of some complex societies. We also show that the roles of species in a community can change over time and that persistence is predicted by measures of species sensitivity, a function of local dynamic stability. To our knowledge, our study is the first high-resolution analysis of the ecological impacts of environmental change on predator-prey networks over millennial timescales and sheds light on the historical events that have shaped modern animal communities.

Emergent stability in a large, free-flowing watershed.

While it is widely recognized that financial stock portfolios can be stabilized through diverse investments, it is also possible that certain habitats can function as natural portfolios that stabilize ecosystem processes. Here we propose and examine the hypothesis that free-flowing river networks act as such portfolios and confer stability through their integration of upstream geological, hydrological, and biological diversity. We compiled a spatially (142 sites) and temporally (1980-present) extensive data set on fisheries, water flows, and temperatures, from sites within one of the largest watersheds in the world that remains without dams on its mainstem, the Fraser River, British Columbia, Canada. We found that larger catchments had more stable fisheries catches, water flows, and water temperatures than smaller catchments. These data provide evidence that free-flowing river networks function as hierarchically nested portfolios with stability as an emergent property. Thus, free-flowing river networks can represent a natural system for buffering variation and extreme events.

Life-history diversity and its importance to population stability and persistence of a migratory fish: steelhead in two large North American watersheds.

Life-history strategies can buffer individuals and populations from environmental variability. For instance, it is possible that asynchronous dynamics among different life histories can stabilize populations through portfolio effects. Here, we examine life-history diversity and its importance to stability for an iconic migratory fish species. In particular, we examined steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss), an anadromous and iteroparous salmonid, in two large, relatively pristine, watersheds, the Skeena and Nass, in north-western British Columbia, Canada. We synthesized life-history information derived from scales collected from adult steelhead (N = 7227) in these watersheds across a decade. These migratory fishes expressed 36 different manifestations of the anadromous life-history strategy, with 16 different combinations of freshwater and marine ages, 7·6% of fish performing multiple spawning migrations, and up to a maximum of four spawning migrations per lifetime. Furthermore, in the Nass watershed, various life histories were differently prevalent through time - three different life histories were the most prevalent in a given year, and no life history ever represented more than 45% of the population. These asynchronous dynamics among life histories decreased the variability of numerical abundance and biomass of the aggregated population so that it was > 20% more stable than the stability of the weighted average of specific life histories: evidence of a substantial portfolio effect. Year of ocean entry was a key driver of dynamics; the median correlation coefficient of abundance of life histories that entered the ocean the same year was 2·5 times higher than the median pairwise coefficient of life histories that entered the ocean at different times. Simulations illustrated how different elements of life-history diversity contribute to stability and persistence of populations. This study provides evidence that life-history diversity can dampen fluctuations in population abundances and biomass via portfolio effects. Conserving genetic integrity and habitat diversity in these and other large watersheds can enable a diversity of life histories that increases population and biomass stability in the face of environmental variability.

The impact of climate change on the structure of Pleistocene food webs across the mammoth steppe.

Species interactions form food webs, impacting community structure and, potentially, ecological dynamics. It is likely that global climatic perturbations that occur over long periods of time have a significant influence on species interaction patterns. Here, we integrate stable isotope analysis and network theory to reconstruct patterns of trophic interactions for six independent mammalian communities that inhabited mammoth steppe environments spanning western Europe to eastern Alaska (Beringia) during the Late Pleistocene. We use a Bayesian mixing model to quantify the contribution of prey to the diets of local predators, and assess how the structure of trophic interactions changed across space and the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), a global climatic event that severely impacted mammoth steppe communities. We find that large felids had diets that were more constrained than those of co-occurring predators, and largely influenced by an increase in Rangifer abundance after the LGM. Moreover, the structural organization of Beringian and European communities strongly differed: compared with Europe, species interactions in Beringian communities before--and possibly after--the LGM were highly modular. We suggest that this difference in modularity may have been driven by the geographical insularity of Beringian communities.

A bioenergetic framework for aboveground terrestrial food webs.

Bioenergetic approaches have been greatly influential for understanding community functioning and stability and predicting effects of environmental changes on biodiversity. These approaches use allometric relationships to establish species' trophic interactions and consumption rates and have been successfully applied to aquatic ecosystems. Terrestrial ecosystems, where body mass is less predictive of plant-consumer interactions, present inherent challenges that these models have yet to meet. Here, we discuss the processes governing terrestrial plant-consumer interactions and develop a bioenergetic framework integrating those processes. Our framework integrates bioenergetics specific to terrestrial plants and their consumers within a food web approach while also considering mutualistic interactions. Such a framework is poised to advance our understanding of terrestrial food webs and to predict their responses to environmental changes.

Cooperation and individuality among man-eating lions.

Cooperation is the cornerstone of lion social behavior. In a notorious case, a coalition of two adult male lions from Tsavo, southern Kenya, cooperatively killed dozens of railway workers in 1898. The "man-eaters of Tsavo" have since become the subject of numerous popular accounts, including three Hollywood films. Yet the full extent of the lions' man-eating behavior is unknown; estimates range widely from 28 to 135 victims. Here we use stable isotope ratios to quantify increasing dietary specialization on novel prey during a time of food limitation. For one lion, the delta(13)C and delta(15)N values of bone collagen and hair keratin (which reflect dietary inputs over years and months, respectively) reveal isotopic changes that are consistent with a progressive dietary specialization on humans. These findings not only support the hypothesis that prey scarcity drives individual dietary specialization, but also demonstrate that sustained dietary individuality can exist within a cooperative framework. The intensity of human predation (up to 30% reliance during the final months of 1898) is also associated with severe craniodental infirmities, which may have further promoted the inclusion of unconventional prey under perturbed environmental conditions.

Modern models of trophic meta-communities.

Dispersal and foodweb dynamics have long been studied in separate models. However, over the past decades, it has become abundantly clear that there are intricate interactions between local dynamics and spatial patterns. Trophic meta-communities, i.e. meta-foodwebs, are very complex systems that exhibit complex and often counterintuitive dynamics. Over the past decade, a broad range of modelling approaches have been used to study these systems. In this paper, we review these approaches and the insights that they have revealed. We focus particularly on recent papers that study trophic interactions in spatially extensive settings and highlight the common themes that emerged in different models. There is overwhelming evidence that dispersal (and particularly intermediate levels of dispersal) benefits the maintenance of biodiversity in several different ways. Moreover, some insights have been gained into the effect of different habitat topologies, but these results also show that the exact relationships are much more complex than previously thought, highlighting the need for further research in this area. This article is part of the theme issue 'Integrative research perspectives on marine conservation'.

The indirect paths to cascading effects of extinctions in mutualistic networks.

Biodiversity loss is a hallmark of our times, but predicting its consequences is challenging. Ecological interactions form complex networks with multiple direct and indirect paths through which the impacts of an extinction may propagate. Here we show that accounting for these multiple paths connecting species is necessary to predict how extinctions affect the integrity of ecological networks. Using an approach initially developed for the study of information flow, we estimate indirect effects in plant-pollinator networks and find that even those species with several direct interactions may have much of their influence over others through long indirect paths. Next, we perform extinction simulations in those networks and show that although traditional connectivity metrics fail in the prediction of coextinction patterns, accounting for indirect interaction paths allows predicting species' vulnerability to the cascading effects of an extinction event. Embracing the structural complexity of ecological systems contributes towards a more predictive ecology, which is of paramount importance amid the current biodiversity crisis.

Diverse interactions and ecosystem engineering can stabilize community assembly.

The complexity of an ecological community can be distilled into a network, where diverse interactions connect species in a web of dependencies. Species interact directly with each other and indirectly through environmental effects, however to our knowledge the role of these ecosystem engineers has not been considered in ecological network models. Here we explore the dynamics of ecosystem assembly, where species colonization and extinction depends on the constraints imposed by trophic, service, and engineering dependencies. We show that our assembly model reproduces many key features of ecological systems, such as the role of generalists during assembly, realistic maximum trophic levels, and increased nestedness with mutualistic interactions. We find that ecosystem engineering has large and nonlinear effects on extinction rates. While small numbers of engineers reduce stability by increasing primary extinctions, larger numbers of engineers increase stability by reducing primary extinctions and extinction cascade magnitude. Our results suggest that ecological engineers may enhance community diversity while increasing persistence by facilitating colonization and limiting competitive exclusion.

Revealing biases in the sampling of ecological interaction networks.

The structure of ecological interactions is commonly understood through analyses of interaction networks. However, these analyses may be sensitive to sampling biases with respect to both the interactors (the nodes of the network) and interactions (the links between nodes), because the detectability of species and their interactions is highly heterogeneous. These ecological and statistical issues directly affect ecologists' abilities to accurately construct ecological networks. However, statistical biases introduced by sampling are difficult to quantify in the absence of full knowledge of the underlying ecological network's structure. To explore properties of large-scale ecological networks, we developed the software EcoNetGen, which constructs and samples networks with predetermined topologies. These networks may represent a wide variety of communities that vary in size and types of ecological interactions. We sampled these networks with different mathematical sampling designs that correspond to methods used in field observations. The observed networks generated by each sampling process were then analyzed with respect to the number of components, size of components and other network metrics. We show that the sampling effort needed to estimate underlying network properties depends strongly both on the sampling design and on the underlying network topology. In particular, networks with random or scale-free modules require more complete sampling to reveal their structure, compared to networks whose modules are nested or bipartite. Overall, modules with nested structure were the easiest to detect, regardless of the sampling design used. Sampling a network starting with any species that had a high degree (e.g., abundant generalist species) was consistently found to be the most accurate strategy to estimate network structure. Because high-degree species tend to be generalists, abundant in natural communities relative to specialists, and connected to each other, sampling by degree may therefore be common but unintentional in empirical sampling of networks. Conversely, sampling according to module (representing different interaction types or taxa) results in a rather complete view of certain modules, but fails to provide a complete picture of the underlying network. To reduce biases introduced by sampling methods, we recommend that these findings be incorporated into field design considerations for projects aiming to characterize large species interaction networks.

Analysing ecological networks of species interactions.

Network approaches to ecological questions have been increasingly used, particularly in recent decades. The abstraction of ecological systems - such as communities - through networks of interactions between their components indeed provides a way to summarize this information with single objects. The methodological framework derived from graph theory also provides numerous approaches and measures to analyze these objects and can offer new perspectives on established ecological theories as well as tools to address new challenges. However, prior to using these methods to test ecological hypotheses, it is necessary that we understand, adapt, and use them in ways that both allow us to deliver their full potential and account for their limitations. Here, we attempt to increase the accessibility of network approaches by providing a review of the tools that have been developed so far, with - what we believe to be - their appropriate uses and potential limitations. This is not an exhaustive review of all methods and metrics, but rather, an overview of tools that are robust, informative, and ecologically sound. After providing a brief presentation of species interaction networks and how to build them in order to summarize ecological information of different types, we then classify methods and metrics by the types of ecological questions that they can be used to answer from global to local scales, including methods for hypothesis testing and future perspectives. Specifically, we show how the organization of species interactions in a community yields different network structures (e.g., more or less dense, modular or nested), how different measures can be used to describe and quantify these emerging structures, and how to compare communities based on these differences in structures. Within networks, we illustrate metrics that can be used to describe and compare the functional and dynamic roles of species based on their position in the network and the organization of their interactions as well as associated new methods to test the significance of these results. Lastly, we describe potential fruitful avenues for new methodological developments to address novel ecological questions.

Dynamics of starvation and recovery predict extinction risk and both Damuth's law and Cope's rule.

The eco-evolutionary dynamics of species are fundamentally linked to the energetic constraints of their constituent individuals. Of particular importance is the interplay between reproduction and the dynamics of starvation and recovery. To elucidate this interplay, here we introduce a nutritional state-structured model that incorporates two classes of consumers: nutritionally replete, reproducing consumers, and undernourished, nonreproducing consumers. We obtain strong constraints on starvation and recovery rates by deriving allometric scaling relationships and find that population dynamics are typically driven to a steady state. Moreover, these rates fall within a "refuge" in parameter space, where the probability of population extinction is minimized. We also show that our model provides a natural framework to predict steady state population abundances known as Damuth's law, and maximum mammalian body size. By determining the relative stability of an otherwise homogeneous population to a competing population with altered percent body fat, this framework provides a principled mechanism for a selective driver of Cope's rule.

Eco-evolutionary dynamics, density-dependent dispersal and collective behaviour: implications for salmon metapopulation robustness.

The spatial dispersal of individuals plays an important role in the dynamics of populations, and is central to metapopulation theory. Dispersal provides connections within metapopulations, promoting demographic and evolutionary rescue, but may also introduce maladapted individuals, potentially lowering the fitness of recipient populations through introgression of heritable traits. To explore this dual nature of dispersal, we modify a well-established eco-evolutionary model of two locally adapted populations and their associated mean trait values, to examine recruiting salmon populations that are connected by density-dependent dispersal, consistent with collective migratory behaviour that promotes navigation. When the strength of collective behaviour is weak such that straying is effectively constant, we show that a low level of straying is associated with the highest gains in metapopulation robustness and that high straying serves to erode robustness. Moreover, we find that as the strength of collective behaviour increases, metapopulation robustness is enhanced, but this relationship depends on the rate at which individuals stray. Specifically, strong collective behaviour increases the presence of hidden low-density basins of attraction, which may serve to trap disturbed populations, and this is exacerbated by increased habitat heterogeneity. Taken as a whole, our findings suggest that density-dependent straying and collective migratory behaviour may help metapopulations, such as in salmon, thrive in dynamic landscapes. Given the pervasive eco-evolutionary impacts of dispersal on metapopulations, these findings have important ramifications for the conservation of salmon metapopulations facing both natural and anthropogenic contemporary disturbances.This article is part of the theme issue 'Collective movement ecology'.

The isotopic ecology of African mole rats informs hypotheses on the evolution of human diet.

The diets of Australopithecus africanus and Paranthropus robustus are hypothesized to have included C4 plants, such as tropical grasses and sedges, or the tissues of animals which themselves consumed C4 plants. Yet inferences based on the craniodental morphology of A. africanus and P. robustus indicate a seasonal diet governed by hard, brittle foods. Such mechanical characteristics are incompatible with a diet of grasses or uncooked meat, which are too tough for efficient mastication by flat, low-cusped molars. This discrepancy, termed the C4 conundrum, has led to the speculation that C4 plant underground storage organs (USOs) were a source of nutrition for hominin species. We test this hypothesis by examining the isotopic ecology of African mole rats, which consume USOs extensively. We measured delta18O and delta13C of enamel and bone apatite from fossil and modern species distributed across a range of habitats. We show that delta18O values vary little and that delta13C values vary along the C3 to C4/CAM-vegetative axis. Relatively high delta13C values exist in modern Cryptomys hottentotus natalensis and Cryptomys spp. recovered from hominin-bearing deposits. These values overlap those reported for A. africanus and P. robustus and we conclude that the USO hypothesis for hominin diets retains certain plausibility.