Shifting trophic control of fishery-ecosystem dynamics following biological invasions.

Increasing human population size and mobility have accelerated the translocation of nonnative species globally, which has become a major threat to conservation of biodiversity and ecosystem services. Introduced species can disrupt species interactions of the recipient ecosystem, triggering system-wide events, and amplify or dampen effects of existing pressures. We show how two pervasive intercontinental invasive consumers in North American lakes, dreissenids (filter-feeding mussels) and Bythotrephes (carnivorous zooplankton), nonlinearly modify consumer-resource dynamics and undermine management interventions to rebuild cold-water predatory fish biomass. Synthesizing 30 yr (1986-2015) of lake-wide monitoring data with a dynamic mass-balance food-web model (consisting of 61 species and trophic groups), we reconstructed historical food-web dynamics of Lake Simcoe, a large, temperate lake in Ontario, Canada that has shifted from a turbid to clear-water state. We then analyzed patterns of biomass fluctuations of three recreationally harvested, ecologically connected populations; lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush, a piscivore), lake whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis, a benthivore), and cisco (C. artedi, a planktivore) before and after the invasions by testing hypotheses on their delayed recoveries under management interventions-predator manipulations (fishery removal and stocking) and nutrient (phosphorus) load reduction. Analyses suggest that fishery harvest primarily regulated early recovery trajectories of the piscivore and planktivore, weakening top-down control prior to the establishment of the invasive consumers. By contrast, the benthivore biomass patterns were shaped, in part, by the invasive mussels (via diet shift), independently of management actions. Although improved water quality (with reduced hypoxia in deeper water) and, in turn, higher macrophyte production are projected to expand the predation refuge for young fish, intensified planktivory (by Bythotrephes) and herbivory (by dreissenids) have triggered shifts in community composition (from pelagic to demersal dominance). These system-wide shifts, in turn, have substantially diminished ecosystem productivity, thereby shrinking fishery yields. Novel consumers can rewire food webs, disrupt energy flows, and suppress predator recoveries, underscoring the need to account for altered ecological reality when sustainably managing fishery resources in invaded ecosystems.

Species portfolio effects dominate seasonal zooplankton stabilization within a large temperate lake.

Portfolio effects (PEs) in ecology refer to the suite of phenomenon where the temporal variation of aggregate ecosystem properties (i.e., abundance) is lower than that of their ecosystem components. An example of this is where differential responses of species to environmental variation generate stability at higher levels of ecological organization (e.g., local community, metapopulation, metacommunity). Most of the research examining such PEs has focused on spatial or interannual variation of ecosystems; however, as global change continues to alter seasonality and ecosystem functioning, understanding the underlying food web structures that help maintain stability at multiple spatial and temporal scales is critical to managing ecological systems. Recent advances investigating diversity-stability relationships has led to the development of frameworks that incorporate a metacommunity perspective which allows for the partitioning of PEs across organizational scales (i.e., local community, metapopulation, cross-community, metacommunity) from local population dynamics (total). This partitioning yields insights into the mechanisms that generate observed PEs in nature. Here, we employed one of these recently developed frameworks on a temporally (1986-1999, 2008-2019) and spatially (five sampling stations, local communities) extensive data set of zooplankton abundance (e.g., density) within a large temperate lake to investigate how temporal (seasonal) and spatial (among site) PEs influence stability within the zooplankton metacommunity. We found that seasonal asynchrony of different zooplankton species within local communities and across communities generated the vast majority of stabilization, while spatial (i.e., metapopulation) dynamics were more synchronous and contributed little to overall system stability. Furthermore, significantly positive diversity-asynchrony relationships at the total, local- and cross-community scales were found as asynchrony was positively correlated with local Shannon diversity. Last, a comparison of PEs over the time periods, during which significant local and global changes (i.e., climate warming, invasive species) have occurred suggests that PEs may be eroding, as increasingly synchronous dynamics and declining diversity in recent years have led to a rise in metacommunity variability. We end by arguing for the critical importance of understanding seasonally driven stabilizing mechanisms as local and global changes threaten to fundamentally alter seasonal signals with potentially strong implications for the structures that lend stability to ecosystems.

Continuous Bayesian network for studying the causal links between phosphorus loading and plankton patterns in Lake Simcoe, Ontario, Canada.

An ecosystem perspective to restoring beneficial uses in Areas of Concern can be interpreted as a shift from the traditional elucidation of simple cause-effect relationships to a multicausal way of thinking that more effectively accommodates ecosystem complexity. This holistic management paradigm has also pervaded the contemporary ecological modeling practice, making compelling the adoption of more sophisticated ecosystem modeling tools. In this study, our primary objective is to develop a Bayesian hierarchical network of simple ecological models for Lake Simcoe, Ontario, Canada, aiming to establish a realistic representation of the causal connections among exogenous nutrient loading, ambient nutrient conditions, and epilimnetic plankton dynamics. In particular, we used a spatially explicit simple mass-balance model forced with idealized sinusoidal loading to predict total phosphorus concentrations. A structural equation model was then used to delineate the interplay among nutrients, ambient light conditions, phytoplankton, and herbivorous biomass. Our analysis highlights the strength of the causal linkages between total phosphorus and water clarity with phytoplankton as well as the capacity of zooplankton grazing to modulate the algal standing crop. Our Bayesian network is also used to examine the exceedance frequency of threshold values for total phosphorus (15 µg/L) and chlorophyll a (4 µg/L) concentrations under scenarios of phosphorus loading reduction. Our study suggests that a 15% phosphorus loading decrease will still result in >25% violations of the 4 µg chla/L value in the two embayments of Lake Simcoe (Cook's Bay and Kempenfelt Bay). The TP levels will decrease in response to the exogenous loading reductions and this improvement will be primarily manifested in the northcentral segments of the system.

Effects of climate and land-use changes on fish catches across lakes at a global scale.

Globally, our knowledge on lake fisheries is still limited despite their importance to food security and livelihoods. Here we show that fish catches can respond either positively or negatively to climate and land-use changes, by analyzing time-series data (1970-2014) for 31 lakes across five continents. We find that effects of a climate or land-use driver (e.g., air temperature) on lake environment could be relatively consistent in directions, but consequential changes in a lake-environmental factor (e.g., water temperature) could result in either increases or decreases in fish catch in a given lake. A subsequent correlation analysis indicates that reductions in fish catch was less likely to occur in response to potential climate and land-use changes if a lake is located in a region with greater access to clean water. This finding suggests that adequate investments for water-quality protection and water-use efficiency can provide additional benefits to lake fisheries and food security.