Socioeconomic disparities in surveillance and follow-up of patients with thoracic aortic aneurysm.

BACKGROUND: Thoracic aortic aneurysm (TAA) is a significant risk factor for aortic dissection and rupture. Guidelines recommend referral of patients to a cardiovascular specialist for periodic surveillance imaging with surgical intervention determined primarily by aneurysm size. We investigated the association between socioeconomic status (SES) and surveillance practices in patients with ascending aortic aneurysms. METHODS: We retrospectively reviewed records of 465 consecutive patients diagnosed between 2013 and 2016 with ascending aortic aneurysm ≥4 cm on computed tomography scans. Primary outcomes were clinical follow-up with a cardiovascular specialist and aortic surveillance imaging within 2 years following index scan. We stratified patients into quartiles using the area deprivation index (ADI), a validated percentile measure of 17 variables characterizing SES at the census block group level. Competing risks analysis was used to determine interquartile differences in risk of death before follow up with a cardiovascular specialist. RESULTS: Lower SES was associated with significantly lower rates of surveillance imaging and referral to a cardiovascular specialist. On competing risks regression, the ADI quartile with lowest SES had lower hazard of follow-up with a cardiologist or cardiac surgeon before death (hazard ratio: 0.46 [0.34, 0.62], p < .001). Though there were no differences in aneurysm size at time of surgical repair, patients in the lowest socioeconomic quartile were more frequently symptomatic at surgery than other quartiles (92% vs. 23%-38%, p < .001). CONCLUSION: Patients with lower SES receive less timely follow-up imaging and specialist referral for TAAs, resulting in surgical intervention only when alarming symptoms are already present.

Direct relationship between transvalvular velocity and cardiac dysfunction, morbidity, and mortality in patients with aortic stenosis.

OBJECTIVE: Current guidelines recommend intervention in subjects with severe symptomatic aortic stenosis (AS), even though any degree of AS is associated with a higher risk of mortality. We investigated the association between the degree of AS, delineated by transvalvular flow velocity, and patient morbidity and mortality. METHODS: Medically managed patients aged 40-95 years with maximum flow velocity (Vmax ) by echocardiography between 2013 and 2018 were stratified into five groups (A-E) based on the 75th, 90th, 97.5th, and the 99th percentiles of Vmax distribution. Patient characteristics, cardiac structural changes, and end-organ disease were compared using Kruskal-Wallis and Cochran-Armitage tests. Mortality over a median of 2.8 (1.52-4.8) years was compared using Kaplan-Meier curves and risk estimates were derived from the Cox model. RESULTS: The Vmax was reported in 37,131 patients. There was a steady increase (from Group A towards E) in age, Caucasian race, structural cardiac changes, end-organ morbidities, and all-cause mortality. In reference to Group A, there as an increased risk of mortality in Groups B (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.3; confidence interval [CI]: 1.2-1.35; p < .0001), C (HR = 1.5; CI: 1.4-1.6; p < .0001), and D (HR = 1.8; CI: 1.6-2; p < .0001), with an exponential increase in Group E (HR = 2.5; CI: 2.2-2.8; p < .0001). CONCLUSIONS: A direct, strong correlation exists between the degree of AS and cardiac structural changes and mortality. Patients with Vmax ≥ 97.5th percentile (≥3.2 m/s) might benefit from early intervention.

Trends and outcomes of thoracic endovascular aortic repair with open concomitant cervical debranching.

OBJECTIVE: Thoracic endovascular aortic repair (TEVAR) has become the most common surgical procedure for treatment of descending thoracic aortic pathology. Cervical debranching in the form of carotid-subclavian bypass or transposition (CSBT) and carotid-carotid bypass (CCB) has enabled the use of TEVAR for the treatment of more complex anatomy involving the arch. The present study examined the effects of concomitant cervical bypass on the perioperative outcomes of TEVAR. METHODS: The American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program files (2005-2017) were reviewed. Using the Current Procedural Terminology codes, all patients who had undergone TEVAR were identified and were divided into three groups: TEVAR, TEVAR with one bypass (CSBT or CCB), and TEVAR with two bypasses (CSBT and CCB). The patient characteristics and perioperative outcomes of the three groups were compared. Multivariable analysis was performed to determine the factors associated with mortality. RESULTS: A total of 3281 patients had undergone TEVAR and 10% had also undergone one or more debranching procedure (one bypass, 9%; two bypasses, 1%). The frequency of debranching had increased from 3.4% to 10.9% (P = .01) during the study period. Significant differences were found among the three groups in age, sex, smoking history, urgency of surgery, and anesthesia technique. The patients who had undergone TEVAR with cervical debranching had had significantly greater morbidity, longer operating times, and longer hospital stays compared with those who had undergone TEVAR alone. The mortality of TEVAR with two bypasses (22.6%) was significantly greater than that of TEVAR alone (7.5%) and TEVAR with one bypass (6.8%; P < .01). The total morbidity (30.9% vs 35.1% vs 67.7%; P < .001) and stroke rate (3% vs 7.5% vs 12.9%; P < .0001) increased with the increasing number of bypasses. A subgroup analysis of patients who had undergone TEVAR with one bypass showed no significant differences in mortality between TEVAR plus CSBT (6.6%) vs TEVAR plus CCB (8.8%; P = .63). Multivariable analysis showed that TEVAR with two bypasses was associated with significantly increased mortality compared with TEVAR alone (odds ratio [OR], 4.33; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.75-10.73) and TEVAR with one bypass (OR, 3.44; 95% CI, 1.24-9.51). Older age (OR, 1.74; 95% CI, 1.42-2.13), dependent functional status (OR, 1.48; 1.00-2.19), dialysis (OR, 2.61; 95% CI, 1.57-4.33), and emergent status (OR, 3.66; 95% CI, 2.73-4.90) were also associated with mortality. CONCLUSIONS: TEVAR with concomitant cervical debranching has been increasingly used to treat complex aortic pathology but is associated with significantly worse outcomes than TEVAR alone. As advanced endovascular technology to treat the aortic arch emerges, the outcomes of open surgical debranching in the present study constitute an important benchmark for comparison.

Endograft type and anesthesia mode are associated with mortality of endovascular aneurysm repair for ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysms.

OBJECTIVE: Endovascular aneurysm repair has become the primary treatment modality for ruptured infrarenal abdominal aortic aneurysm. This study examines the impact of endograft type on perioperative outcomes for ruptured infrarenal abdominal aortic aneurysm. METHOD: The targeted endovascular aneurysm repair files of the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database (2012-2017) were used. Only patients treated for ruptured infrarenal abdominal aortic aneurysm were included. All patients requiring concomitant stenting of the visceral arteries or aneurysmal iliac arteries or open abdominal surgery were excluded. The characteristics of patients treated with the different endografts and the corresponding outcomes were compared using Stata software. RESULTS: There were 479 patients treated with the three most common endografts: Cook Zenith (n = 127), Gore Excluder (n = 239), and Medtronic Endurant (n = 113). The number of other endografts was too small for statistical analysis. Compared to patients treated with Excluder or Endurant, the patients treated with Zenith had significantly lower body mass index (P < .001) and were less likely to be white (P < .001). On the other hand, patients treated with Endurant were less likely to be smoker (P = .016). Patients treated with Zenith had significantly larger ruptured infrarenal abdominal aortic aneurysm diameter (P = .045). The overall mortality was 18% and morbidity 74.3%. There was a statistically significant difference in overall mortality (Zenith = 11.8%, Excluder = 18%, Endurant = 24.8%, P = .033) but not morbidity (P = .808) between the three groups. Post hoc analysis for overall mortality showed only significant difference between Zenith and Endurant. The difference in mortality was not significant in patients presenting with ruptured infrarenal abdominal aortic aneurysm without hypotension (P = .065). On multivariable analysis, treatment with the Endurant endograft was associated with increased mortality compared to Zenith (odds ratio = 3.0 [confidence interval 1.31-6.7]). General anesthesia (odds ratio = 2.67 [confidence interval 1.02-7.02]), rupture with hypotension (odds ratio = 4.49 [confidence interval 2.54-7.95]), and dependent functional status (odds ratio = 5.7 [confidence interval 1.96-16.59]) were independently associated with increased mortality while increasing body mass index (odds ratio = 0.97 [confidence interval 0.95-0.99]) was associated with reduced risk of mortality. CONCLUSIONS: This study highlights contemporary outcomes of endovascular aneurysm repair for ruptured infrarenal abdominal aortic aneurysm with relatively low mortality. Endograft type and anesthesia technique are modifiable factors that can potentially improve outcomes. Significant variation in the outcomes of the different endografts warrants further research.

Progression of aortic stenosis in patients with bicuspid aortic valve.

BACKGROUND: Bicuspid aortic valve is the most common congenital heart defect and predisposes patients to developing aortic stenosis more frequently and at a younger age than the general population. However, the influence of bicuspid aortic valve on the rate of progression of aortic stenosis remains unclear. METHODS: In 236 patients (177 tricuspid aortic valve and 59 bicuspid aortic valve) matched by initial severity of mild or moderate aortic stenosis, we retrospectively analyzed baseline echocardiogram at diagnosis with latest available follow-up echocardiogram. Baseline comorbidities, annualized progression rate of hemodynamic parameters, and hazard of aortic valve replacement were compared between valve phenotypes. RESULTS: Median echocardiographic follow-up was 2.6 (interquartile range [IQR] 1.6-4.2) years. Patients with tricuspid aortic stenosis were significantly older with more frequent comorbid hypertension and congestive heart failure. Median annualized progression rate of mean gradient was 2.3 (IQR 0.6-5.0) mmHg/year versus 1.5 (IQR 0.5-4.1) mmHg/year (p = .5), and that of peak velocity was 0.14 (IQR 0-0.31) m/s/year versus 0.10 (IQR 0.04-0.26) m/s/year (p = .7) for tricuspid versus bicuspid aortic valve, respectively. On multivariate analyses, bicuspid aortic valve was not significantly associated with more rapid progression of aortic stenosis. In a stepwise Cox proportional hazards model adjusted for baseline mean gradient, bicuspid aortic valve was associated with increased hazard of aortic valve replacement (hazard ratio: 1.7, 95% confidence interval [1.0-3.0], p = .049). CONCLUSION: Bicuspid aortic valve may not significantly predispose patients to more rapid progression of mild or moderate aortic stenosis. Guidelines for echocardiographic surveillance of aortic stenosis need not be influenced by valve phenotype.

Variants of the aortic arch in adult general population and their association with thoracic aortic aneurysm disease.

BACKGROUND: Query a single institution computed tomography (CT) database to assess the prevalence of aortic arch anomalies in general adult population and their potential association with thoracic aortopathies. METHODS: CT chest scan reports of patients aged 50-85 years old performed for any indication at a single health system between 2013 and 2016 were included in the analysis. Characteristics of patients with and without aortic arch anomalies were compared by t test and Fisher exact tests. Logistic regression analysis was performed to assess for independent risk factors of thoracic aortic aneurysm (TAA). RESULTS: Of 21,336 CT scans, 603 (2.8%) described arch anomalies. Bovine arch (n = 354, 58.7%) was the most common diagnosis. Patients with arch anomalies were more likely to be female (p < .001), non-Caucasian(p < .001), and hypertensive (p < .001). Prevalence of TAA in arch anomalies group was 10.8% (n = 65) compared to 4.1% (n = 844) in the nonarch anomaly cohort (p < .001). The highest prevalence of thoracic aneurysm was associated with right-sided arch combined with aberrant left subclavian configuration (33%), followed by bovine arch (13%), and aberrant right subclavian artery (8.2%). On binary logistic regression, arch anomaly (OR = 2.85 [2.16-3.75]), aortic valve pathology (OR 2.93 [2.31-3.73]), male sex (OR 2.38 [2.01-2.80]), and hypertension (OR 1.47 [1.25-1.73]) were significantly associated with increased risk of thoracic aneurysm disease. CONCLUSIONS: Reported prevalence of aortic arch anomalies by CT imaging in the older adult population is approximately 3%, with high association of TAA (OR = 2.85) incidence in this subgroup. This may warrant a more tailored surveillance strategy for aneurysm disease in this subpopulation.

Relationship of surgeon experience and outcomes of surgery for degenerative mitral valve disease.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the impact of surgeon experience on the outcomes of degenerative mitral valve disease. METHODS: We reviewed all patients who had surgery for degenerative mitral valve disease between 2011 and 2016. Experienced surgeon was defined as performing ≥ 25 mitral valve operations/year. Patient characteristics and outcomes were compared. Competing risk analysis was performed to identify factors associated with mitral regurgitation (MR) recurrence. Survival analysis for mortality was done using Kaplan Meier curve and Cox proportional hazard method. RESULTS: There were 575 patients treated by 9 surgeons for severe MR caused by degenerative mitral valve disease between 2011 and 2016. Three experienced surgeons performed 77.2% of the operations. Patients treated by less experienced surgeons had worse comorbidity profile and were more likely to have an urgent or emergent operation (p = .001). Experienced surgeons were more likely to attempt repair (p = .024), to succeed in repair (94.7% vs. 87%; p = .001), had shorter cross-clamp times (p = .001), and achieved higher repair rate (81.3% vs. 69.7%; p = .005). Experienced surgeons were more likely to use neochordae (p = .001) and less likely to use chordae transfer (p = .001). Surgeon experience was not associated with recurrence of moderate or higher degree of MR after repair but was an independent risk factor for mortality (HR = 2.64; p = .002). CONCLUSIONS: Techniques of degenerative mitral valve surgery differ with surgeon experience, with higher rates of repair and better outcomes associated with more experienced surgeons.

United States national trends in comorbidity and outcomes of adult cardiac surgery patients.

BACKGROUND: Comorbidity profiles of cardiac surgery patients are known to have changed over time, but modern national trends in these comorbidities and outcomes are not described. This study describes comorbidity trends over time for common adult cardiac surgery procedures. METHODS: A retrospective, cross-sectional analysis of the National Inpatient Sample was conducted for years 2005-2014. Hospitalizations with coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG), aortic valve replacement (AVR), and mitral valve repair/replacement (MVRR), as well as combined CABG/valve operations, were identified by ICD-9 procedure codes. Comorbidities were defined based on ICD-9 codes to discriminate between comorbidities and complications. Surgical volume, patient age, in-hospital mortality, and length of stay trends over time were evaluated by linear regression. RESULTS: Incidence increased for AVR, MVRR, and CABG + AVR and declined for CABG and CABG + MVRR (P < .001). The mean number of comorbidities across all surgeries increased from 1.4 to 1.9 (P < .001). Length of stay declined for AVR, CABG + AVR, and CABG + MVRR (P < .001) with an overall decline from 10.1 to 9.7 days (P = .003). In-hospital mortality decreased in all categories over time (P < .001). Overall, in-hospital mortality decreased from 2.9% to 2.3% (P < .001). CONCLUSIONS: Despite increasing comorbidity in cardiac surgery, operations are being conducted with fewer in-hospital mortalities across all types of surgery and decreasing length of stay for most types of surgery, which should inform the frequency of risk model updates and raise questions of the applicability of earlier studies in cardiac surgery to the modern population.

Living in disadvantaged neighborhoods linked to less intervention for severe aortic stenosis.

To investigate the association between area deprivation index (ADI) and aortic valve replacement (AVR) in patients with severe aortic stenosis (AS). Patients aged 40-95 years with severe AS confirmed by echocardiography were included. The 9-digit zip code of patient residence address was used to identify the ADI ranking, based on which patients were divided into 5 groups (with Group E being most deprived). The rates of AV intervention were compared among 5 groups using competing risks analysis, with death as a competing event. We included 1751 patients with severe AS from 2013 to 2018 followed for a median 2.8 (interquartile range, 1.5-4.8) years. The more distressed ADI groups tended to be younger (P = 0.002), female (P < 0.001), and of African American race (P < 0.001), have higher presentation of sepsis (P = 0.031), arrhythmia (P = 0.022), less likely to have previous diagnosis of AS (P < 0.001); and were less likely to undergo AVR (52.5% vs 46.9% vs 46.1% vs 48.9% vs 39.7%, P = 0.023). Using competing risk analysis, the highest ADI group (E) were the least and the lowest ADI group (A) the most likely to undergo AVR (Gray's test, P = 0.025). The association between ADI ranking and AVR rates was influenced by sex and race. Within group analysis, there was significant association between race and AVR (Gray's test, P < 0.001), and between sex and AVR (Gray's test, P < 0.001). Patients with severe AS living in more deprived neighborhoods were less likely to undergo aortic valve interventions, which was influenced by female gender, and African American race.

The association of depression with mortality and major adverse limb event outcomes in patients with peripheral artery disease: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Peripheral artery disease (PAD) is highly prevalent and associated with poor outcomes. Depression is a risk factor for adverse outcomes in patients with coronary artery disease. Despite evidence showing that depression is common in patients with PAD, less is known about its association with adverse prognostic outcomes. To address this, we conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to summarize the association between depression and outcomes in patients with PAD. METHODS: We performed a systematic search of eight databases to January 2022 including studies that reported a risk estimate for the association of depression or depressive symptoms with all-cause mortality or major adverse limb events (MALE) in patients with PAD and pooled results in a meta-analysis. Risk of bias was assessed using ROBINS-I. RESULTS: Of the 7048 articles screened, 5 observational studies with 119,123 patients were included. A total of 16.2 % had depression or depressive symptoms. Depression was associated with a statistically significant increased risk of all-cause mortality (HR 1.24, confidence interval 1.07-1.25, p = .005). The association between depression and MALE was not significant but trended toward a positive association. LIMITATIONS: Due to lack of data, results were limited by a single study with a large sample size, overrepresentation of men, and lack of information of depression severity or treatment status. CONCLUSION: Depression or depressive symptoms are associated with a 24 % increased risk of all-cause mortality in patients with PAD. Future work should explore the mechanisms and directionality of this association and identify depression as an important comorbidity to address for patients with PAD. REGISTRATION: PROSPERO CRD 42021223694.

Growth rate of ascending thoracic aortic aneurysms in a non-referral-based population.

BACKGROUND: Prior studies on ascending thoracic aortic aneurysm (ATAA) growth rates have reported approximately 1 mm of growth per year but these studies are based on referral-based study populations which are biased towards the highest risk patients who may not represent the true natural history of aortic aneurysm disease. We aimed to characterize the growth rate of ATAAs in a non-referral-based population, using a large institutional database of computed tomography (CT) scans. METHODS: We queried the 21,325 CT scans performed at our institution between 2013 and 2016 on patients ages 50-85 years old for radiologic diagnosis of aortic aneurysm or dilatation. 560 patients were identified to have aortic dilatation > 4 cm, of which 207 had follow-up scan intervals > 6 months. This comprised our non-referral-based study population. Linearized annual aneurysm growth rates were calculated by dividing the change in aortic size by the time interval between CT scans. RESULTS: The median time interval between scans was 2.7 years (interquartile range [IQR] 1.5-4.2) for the 207 patients included in the study. The median initial aneurysm size was 4.3 cm (IQR 4.1-4.5). 38.2% (n = 79) of patients did not experience aortic dilatation. The median growth rate was 0.13 mm/year (IQR - 0.24 to 0.49). Of patients in the top quartile of growth rates, 26.9% of patients were female whereas 12.9% of patients were female in the bottom three quartiles of growth rates. CONCLUSION: While some patients' ATAAs may grow at previously published rates of around 1 mm/year, this is not the predominant pattern in a non-referral-based population and may over-estimate the overall growth rate of ATAAs.

Variability in surveillance practice for patients with diagnosis of bicuspid aortic valve syndrome.

In patients with bicuspid aortic valves, guidelines call for regular follow-up to monitor disease progression and guide intervention. We aimed to evaluate how closely these recommendations are followed at a tertiary care center. Among 48,504 patients who received echocardiograms (2013-2018) at a tertiary care center, 245 patients were identified to have bicuspid aortic valve. Bivariate analyses compared characteristics between patients who did and did not receive follow-up by a cardiovascular specialist. During a median follow-up of 3.5 ± 2.2 years (mean age 55.2 ± 15.6 years, 30.2% female), 72.7% of patients had at least one visit with a cardiovascular specialist after diagnosis of bicuspid aortic valve. These patients had a higher proportion of surveillance by echocardiogram (78.7% vs. 34.3%, p < .0001), CT or MRI (41.0% vs. 3.0%, p < .0001), and were more likely to undergo surgery. Patients with moderate-severe valvular or aortic pathology were not more likely to be followed by a specialist or receive follow-up echocardiograms. Follow-up care for patients with bicuspid aortic valve was highly variable, and surveillance imaging was sparse despite guidelines. There is an urgent need for mechanisms to monitor this population with increased risk of progressive valvulopathy and aortopathy.

Patterns of Surveillance Imaging for Incidentally Detected Ascending Aortic Aneurysms.

BACKGROUND: Ascending aortic aneurysms (AsAA) remain a silent killer for which timely intervention and surveillance intervals are critical. Despite this, little is known about the follow-up care patients receive after incidental detection of an AsAA. We examined the pattern of surveillance and follow-up care for these high-risk patients. METHODS: We identified patients at our institution with incidentally detected AsAAs (≥37 mm) between 2013 and 2016. We collected information on patients' aneurysms and clinical follow-up. Logistic regression models related aneurysm size and demographics to whether patients received follow-up imaging or referral. RESULTS: From 2013 to 2016, 261 patients were identified to have incidentally detected AsAAs among the 21,336 computed tomography scans performed at our institution. The median aneurysm size was 4.2 cm (interquartile range, 4 to 4.4). Only 18 (6.9%) of the identified patients were referred to a cardiac surgeon for evaluation, and only 37.9% of the identified patients had a follow-up chest computed tomography scan within 1 year of detection; 34% had an echocardiogram. The median follow-up duration for the study was 5 years. Logistic regression models showed that aneurysm size and family history were significant predictors of whether a patient was referred to a cardiac surgeon (odds ratio 10.34; 95% confidence interval, 2.3 to 47.9), but not whether the patients received follow-up imaging. CONCLUSIONS: Among 261 patients with incidentally detected AsAAs, only a third received any follow-up imaging within 1 year after detection, with very low clinical penetrance for expert referral. Surveillance of this high-risk patient population appears insufficient and may require standardization.

One and Five-Year Mortality Risk Prediction in Patients with Moderate and Severe Aortic Stenosis.

(1) Background: Our goal was to develop a risk prediction model for mortality in patients with moderate and severe aortic stenosis (AS). (2) Methods: All patients aged 40−95 years, with echocardiographic evidence of moderate and severe AS at a single institution, were studied over a median of 2.8 (1.5−4.8) years, between 2013−2018. Patient characteristics and mortality were compared using Chi-squares, t-tests, and Kaplan−Meier (KM) curves, as appropriate. The risk calculation for mortality was derived using the Cox proportional hazards model. A risk score was calculated for each parameter, and the total sum of scores predicted the individualized risks of 1-and 5-year mortality. (3) Results: A total of 1991 patients with severe and 2212 with moderate AS were included. Severe AS patients were older, had a lower ejection fraction %, were more likely to be Caucasian, and had lower rates of obesity and smoking, but had higher rates of cardiac comorbidities and AVR (49.3% vs. 2.8%, p < 0.0001). The unadjusted overall mortality was 41.7% vs. 41%, p = 0.6530, and was not different using KM curves (log rank, p = 0.0853). The models included only patients with complete follow-up (3966 in the 1-year, and 816 in the 5-year model) and included 13 variables related to patient characteristics, degree of AS, and AVR. The C-statistic was 0.75 and 0.72 for the 1-year and the 5-year models, respectively. (4) Conclusions: Patients with moderate and severe AS experience high morbidity and mortality. The usage of a risk prediction model may provide guidance for clinical decision making in complex patients.

Screening Tool to Identify Patients with Advanced Aortic Valve Stenosis.

(1) Background: The clinical burden of aortic stenosis (AS) remains high in Western countries. Yet, there are no screening algorithms for this condition. We developed a risk prediction model to guide targeted screening for patients with AS. (2) Methods: We performed a cross-sectional analysis of all echocardiographic studies performed between 2013 and 2018 at a tertiary academic care center. We included reports of unique patients aged from 40 to 95 years. A logistic regression model was fitted for the risk of moderate and severe AS, with readily available demographics and comorbidity variables. Model performance was assessed by the C-index, and its calibration was judged by a calibration plot. (3) Results: Among the 38,788 reports yielded by inclusion criteria, there were 4200 (10.8%) patients with ≥moderate AS. The multivariable model demonstrated multiple variables to be associated with AS, including age, male gender, Caucasian race, Body Mass Index ≥ 30, and cardiovascular comorbidities and medications. C-statistics of the model was 0.77 and was well calibrated according to the calibration plot. An integer point system was developed to calculate the predicted risk of ≥moderate AS, which ranged from 0.0002 to 0.7711. The lower 20% of risk was approximately 0.15 (corresponds to a score of 252), while the upper 20% of risk was about 0.60 (corresponds to a score of 332 points). (4) Conclusions: We developed a risk prediction model to predict patients' risk of having ≥moderate AS based on demographic and clinical variables from a large population cohort. This tool may guide targeted screening for patients with advanced AS in the general population.

Quantitative not qualitative histology differentiates aneurysmal from nondilated ascending aortas and reveals a net gain of medial components.

Medial degeneration is a common histopathological finding in aortopathy and is considered a mechanism for dilatation. We investigated if medial degeneration is specific for sporadic thoracic aortic aneurysms versus nondilated aortas. Specimens were graded by pathologists, blinded to the clinical diagnosis, according to consensus histopathological criteria. The extent of medial degeneration by qualitative (semi-quantitative) assessment was not specific for aneurysmal compared to nondilated aortas. In contrast, blinded quantitative assessment of elastin amount and medial cell number distinguished aortic aneurysms and referent specimens, albeit with marked overlap in results. Specifically, the medial fraction of elastin decreased from dilution rather than loss of protein as cross-sectional amount was maintained while the cross-sectional number, though not density, of smooth muscle cells increased in proportion to expansion of the media. Furthermore, elastic lamellae did not thin and interlamellar distance did not diminish as expected for lumen dilatation, implying a net gain of lamellar elastin and intralamellar cells or extracellular matrix during aneurysmal wall remodeling. These findings support the concepts that: (1) medial degeneration need not induce aortic aneurysms, (2) adaptive responses to altered mechanical stresses increase medial tissue, and (3) greater turnover, not loss, of mural cells and extracellular matrix associates with aortic dilatation.

Survival of Patients With Mild Secondary Mitral Regurgitation With and Without Mild Tricuspid Regurgitation.

BACKGROUND: Mild secondary mitral regurgitation (SMR) is considered clinically benign when left-ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) is preserved, but evidence on survival associated with mild SMR in normal LVEF is limited. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of patients who underwent echocardiography in a health care network between 2013 and 2018. We compared the survival of 4 groups: no valvular abnormalities (group 1), trace SMR with trace or mild tricuspid regurgitation (TR) (group 2), mild SMR with trace or no TR (group 3), and mild SMR with mild TR (group 4). A Cox proportional hazard model evaluated hazard of death in groups 2 to 4 compared with group 1, adjusting for demographics, comorbidities, and LVEF. The same comparisons were repeated in a subgroup of patients with preserved LVEF. RESULTS: Among the 16,372 patients of mean age 61 (51 to 71) years and 48% women, there were 8132 (49.7%) group 1 patients, 1902 (11.6%) group 2 patients, 3017 (18.4%) group 3 patients, and 3321 (20.3%) group 4 patients. Compared with group 1, group 4 had significantly increased adjusted hazard of death (hazard ratio [HR], 1.21; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.12-1.31; P < 0.001), whereas groups 2 and 3 did not show a significantly different hazard of death. In those with preserved LVEF, the hazard was also significantly higher in group 4, compared with group 1 (HR, 1.14; 95% CI, 1.03-1.26; P = 0.013). CONCLUSIONS: Mild SMR with mild TR, irrespective of LVEF, was associated with worse survival compared with patients without any valvular abnormalities. Patients with mild SMR may require closer monitoring, even with normal LVEF.

Development and Validation of a Predictive Model to Identify Patients With an Ascending Thoracic Aortic Aneurysm.

Background Screening protocols do not exist for ascending thoracic aortic aneurysms (ATAAs). A risk prediction algorithm may aid targeted screening of patients with an undiagnosed ATAA to prevent aortic dissection. We aimed to develop and validate a risk model to identify those at increased risk of having an ATAA, based on readily available clinical information. Methods and Results This is a cross-sectional study of computed tomography scans involving the chest at a tertiary care center on unique patients aged 50 to 85 years between 2013 and 2016. These criteria yielded 21 325 computed tomography scans. The double-oblique technique was used to measure the ascending thoracic aorta, and an ATAA was defined as >40 mm in diameter. A logistic regression model was fitted for the risk of ATAA, with readily available demographics and comorbidity variables. Model performance was characterized by discrimination and calibration metrics via split-sample testing. Among the 21 325 patients, there were 560 (2.6%) patients with an ATAA. The multivariable model demonstrated that older age, higher body surface area, history of arrhythmia, aortic valve disease, hypertension, and family history of aortic aneurysm were associated with increased risk of an ATAA, whereas female sex and diabetes were associated with a lower risk of an ATAA. The C statistic of the model was 0.723±0.016. The regression coefficients were transformed to scores that allow for point-of-care calculation of patients' risk. Conclusions We developed and internally validated a model to predict patients' risk of having an ATAA based on demographic and clinical characteristics. This algorithm may guide the targeted screening of an undiagnosed ATAA.

Persistence of risk of death after hospital discharge to locations other than home after cardiac surgery.

OBJECTIVE: Temporal changes in the risk of postoperative death following cardiac surgery are uncharacterized. We aimed to quantify the duration of postoperative phase with elevated risk of death in patients who underwent cardiac surgery and were discharged to home and destinations other than home. METHOD: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of 6894 patients who underwent cardiac surgery between 2008 and 2016 at a tertiary care center in the United States. Logistic regression models with restricted cubic splining along the days since hospital discharge were fitted for risk of death in patients who were discharged to home and those discharged to destinations other than home. The splining curves were analyzed to quantify the duration of postoperative high-risk phase in each cohort. RESULTS: Mortality rate was significantly higher in the nonhome cohort compared with those discharged to home at 365 days following hospital discharge (9.3% vs 2.1%; P < .001). Discharge to destinations other than home was an independent predictor of late death (hazard ratio, 1.36; 95% confidence interval, 1.15-1.61; P < .001). Analysis of restricted cubic splining curves demonstrated that the postoperative phase with elevated risk of death persisted for 80.3 days in nonhome discharge cohorts, whereas a comparable phase was nonexistent in patients who went home. Predictors of nonhome discharge were identified, with combination of preoperative and postoperative variables yielding C statistics of 0.83. CONCLUSIONS: Hospital discharges to locations other than home following cardiac surgery were associated with an increased risk of late mortality. The postoperative high-risk phase persisted for 80 days in patients who were discharged to locations other than home, supporting the use of 90-day outcome measures as quality metrics. Predictors of discharge to locations other than home were identified, and this may aid in selective intervention to reduce the risk of death in this vulnerable patient population.