Predictions for COVID-19 with deep learning models of LSTM, GRU and Bi-LSTM.

COVID-19, responsible of infecting billions of people and economy across the globe, requires detailed study of the trend it follows to develop adequate short-term prediction models for forecasting the number of future cases. In this perspective, it is possible to develop strategic planning in the public health system to avoid deaths as well as managing patients. In this paper, proposed forecast models comprising autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), support vector regression (SVR), long shot term memory (LSTM), bidirectional long short term memory (Bi-LSTM) are assessed for time series prediction of confirmed cases, deaths and recoveries in ten major countries affected due to COVID-19. The performance of models is measured by mean absolute error, root mean square error and r2_score indices. In the majority of cases, Bi-LSTM model outperforms in terms of endorsed indices. Models ranking from good performance to the lowest in entire scenarios is Bi-LSTM, LSTM, GRU, SVR and ARIMA. Bi-LSTM generates lowest MAE and RMSE values of 0.0070 and 0.0077, respectively, for deaths in China. The best r2_score value is 0.9997 for recovered cases in China. On the basis of demonstrated robustness and enhanced prediction accuracy, Bi-LSTM can be exploited for pandemic prediction for better planning and management.

Short-term solar energy forecasting: Integrated computational intelligence of LSTMs and GRU.

Problems with erroneous forecasts of electricity production from solar farms create serious operational, technological, and financial challenges to both Solar farm owners and electricity companies. Accurate prediction results are necessary for efficient spinning reserve planning as well as regulating inertia and power supply during contingency events. In this work, the impact of several climatic conditions on solar electricity generation in Amherst. Furthermore, three machine learning models using Lasso Regression, ridge Regression, ElasticNet regression, and Support Vector Regression, as well as deep learning models for time series analysis include long short-term memory, bidirectional LSTM, and gated recurrent unit along with their variants for estimating solar energy generation for every five-minute interval on Amherst weather power station. These models were evaluated using mean absolute error root means square error, mean square error, and mean absolute percentage error. It was observed that horizontal solar irradiance and water saturation deficiency had a highly proportional relationship with Solar PV electricity generation. All proposed machine learning models turned out to perform well in predicting electricity generation from the analyzed solar farm. Bi-LSTM has performed the best among all models with 0.0135, 0.0315, 0.0012, and 0.1205 values of MAE, RMSE, MSE, and MAPE, respectively. Comparison with the existing methods endorses the use of our proposed RNN variants for higher efficiency, accuracy, and robustness. Multistep-ahead solar energy prediction is also carried out by exploiting hybrids of LSTM, Bi-LSTM, and GRU.

Neuro-Evolutionary Framework for Design Optimization of Two-Phase Transducer with Genetic Algorithms.

Multilayer piezocomposite transducers are widely used in many applications where broad bandwidth is required for tracking and detection purposes. However, it is difficult to operate these multilayer transducers efficiently under frequencies of 100 kHz. Therefore, this work presents the modeling and optimization of a five-layer piezocomposite transducer with ten variables of nonuniform layer thicknesses and different volume fractions by exploiting the strength of the genetic algorithm (GA) with a one-dimensional model (ODM). The ODM executes matrix manipulation by resolving wave equations and produces mechanical output in the form of pressure and electrical impedance. The product of gain and bandwidth is the required function to be maximized in this multi-objective and multivariate optimization problem, which is a challenging task having ten variables. Converting it into the minimization problem, the reciprocal of the gain-bandwidth product is considered. The total thickness is adjusted to keep the central frequency at approximately 50-60 kHz. Piezocomposite transducers with three active materials, PZT5h, PZT4d, PMN-PT, and CY1301 polymer, as passive materials were designed, simulated, and statistically evaluated. The results show significant improvement in gain bandwidth compared to previous existing techniques.

PCGA: Polynomial collocation genetic algorithm for singular Poisson-Boltzmann equation arising in thermal explosions.

Heat generation as a result of the exothermic reaction reaches the environment mainly due to the conduction through the walls of the vessel. The balance between the heat generated and the heat conducted away, resulting in the explosion is described by the Frank-Kamenetzkii (FK) parameter ρ. The critical value of FK for which the explosion occurs depends upon the shape of the vessel, which requires the solution of governing singular nonlinear Poisson-Boltzmann equation. Owing to the exponential nonlinearity and singularity the analytical exact solution for the non-integer k values does not exist. This work focuses on implementing the polynomial collocation by exploiting the global optimization features of the genetic algorithm to solve the Poisson-Boltzmann equation for integer and non-integer shape factors (k). The governing equation was converted into coupled nonlinear algebraic equations and an objective function was formulated. The method was examined for six different configurations of the control parameters of GA to find the best set of parameters. The solution for temperature distribution is obtained for cylindrical (k = 1), parallelepiped (k = 0.438, 0.694), and an arbitrary shape (k = 0.5) respectively. The solution obtained from Polynomial Collocation Genetic Algorithm (PCGA) remained in good agreement with the corresponding analytical results for k = 1, with the minimum absolute error of 10 - 10 . The critical values of the FK are obtained as 1.5 , 1.4 , a n d 1.7 for shape factor k = 0.438 , 0.5 , a n d 0.694 respectively with the convergence of the order of 10 - 6 t o 10 - 5 . The obtained solution is fairly stable over appropriate independent runs with the variation in the fitness value ranging from 10 - 05 t o 10 - 03 . Further simulations were performed to validate the results through statistical error indices. The diminutive errors of the order of 10 - 6 confirm reliable optimum solution, accuracy, and stability.

Mitotic nuclei analysis in breast cancer histopathology images using deep ensemble classifier.

Mitotic nuclei estimation in breast tumour samples has a prognostic significance in analysing tumour aggressiveness and grading system. The automated assessment of mitotic nuclei is challenging because of their high similarity with non-mitotic nuclei and heteromorphic appearance. In this work, we have proposed a new Deep Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) based Heterogeneous Ensemble technique "DHE-Mit-Classifier" for analysis of mitotic nuclei in breast histopathology images. The proposed technique in the first step detects candidate mitotic patches from the histopathological biopsy regions, whereas, in the second step, these patches are classified into mitotic and non-mitotic nuclei using the proposed DHE-Mit-Classifier. For the development of a heterogeneous ensemble, five different deep CNNs are designed and used as base-classifiers. These deep CNNs have varying architectural designs to capture the structural, textural, and morphological properties of the mitotic nuclei. The developed base-classifiers exploit different ideas, including (i) region homogeneity and feature invariance, (ii) asymmetric split-transform-merge, (iii) dilated convolution based multi-scale transformation, (iv) spatial and channel attention, and (v) residual learning. Multi-layer-perceptron is used as a meta-classifier to develop a robust and accurate classifier for providing the final decision. The performance of the proposed ensemble "DHE-Mit-Classifier" is evaluated against state-of-the-art CNNs. The performance evaluation on the test set suggests the superiority of the proposed ensemble with an F-score (0.77), recall (0.71), precision (0.83), and area under the precision-recall curve (0.80). The good generalisation of the proposed ensemble with a considerably high F-score and precision suggests its potential use in the development of an assistance tool for pathologists.

A multi-phase deep CNN based mitosis detection framework for breast cancer histopathological images.

The mitotic activity index is a key prognostic measure in tumour grading. Microscopy based detection of mitotic nuclei is a significant overhead and necessitates automation. This work proposes deep CNN based multi-phase mitosis detection framework "MP-MitDet" for mitotic nuclei identification in breast cancer histopathological images. The workflow constitutes: (1) label-refiner, (2) tissue-level mitotic region selection, (3) blob analysis, and (4) cell-level refinement. We developed an automatic label-refiner to represent weak labels with semi-sematic information for training of deep CNNs. A deep instance-based detection and segmentation model is used to explore probable mitotic regions on tissue patches. More probable regions are screened based on blob area and then analysed at cell-level by developing a custom CNN classifier "MitosRes-CNN" to filter false mitoses. The performance of the proposed "MitosRes-CNN" is compared with the state-of-the-art CNNs that are adapted to cell-level discrimination through cross-domain transfer learning and by adding task-specific layers. The performance of the proposed framework shows good discrimination ability in terms of F-score (0.75), recall (0.76), precision (0.71) and area under the precision-recall curve (0.78) on challenging TUPAC16 dataset. Promising results suggest good generalization of the proposed framework that can learn characteristic features from heterogenous mitotic nuclei.

Backtracking search optimization heuristics for nonlinear Hammerstein controlled auto regressive auto regressive systems.

In this work, novel application of evolutionary computational heuristics is presented for parameter identification problem of nonlinear Hammerstein controlled auto regressive auto regressive (NHCARAR) systems through global search competency of backtracking search algorithm (BSA), differential evolution (DE) and genetic algorithms (GAs). The mean squared error metric is used for the fitness function of NHCARAR system based on difference between actual and approximated design variables. Optimization of the cost function is conducted with BSA for NHCARAR model by varying degrees of freedom and noise variances. To verify and validate the worth of the presented scheme, comparative studies are carried out with its counterparts DE and GAs through statistical observations by means of weight deviation factor, root of mean squared error, and Thiel's inequality coefficient as well as complexity measures.

Memetic computing through bio-inspired heuristics integration with sequential quadratic programming for nonlinear systems arising in different physical models.

BACKGROUND: In this study, bio-inspired computing is exploited for solving system of nonlinear equations using variants of genetic algorithms (GAs) as a tool for global search method hybrid with sequential quadratic programming (SQP) for efficient local search. The fitness function is constructed by defining the error function for systems of nonlinear equations in mean square sense. The design parameters of mathematical models are trained by exploiting the competency of GAs and refinement are carried out by viable SQP algorithm. RESULTS: Twelve versions of the memetic approach GA-SQP are designed by taking a different set of reproduction routines in the optimization process. Performance of proposed variants is evaluated on six numerical problems comprising of system of nonlinear equations arising in the interval arithmetic benchmark model, kinematics, neurophysiology, combustion and chemical equilibrium. Comparative studies of the proposed results in terms of accuracy, convergence and complexity are performed with the help of statistical performance indices to establish the worth of the schemes. CONCLUSIONS: Accuracy and convergence of the memetic computing GA-SQP is found better in each case of the simulation study and effectiveness of the scheme is further established through results of statistics based on different performance indices for accuracy and complexity.

A new numerical approach to solve Thomas-Fermi model of an atom using bio-inspired heuristics integrated with sequential quadratic programming.

In this study, a novel bio-inspired computing approach is developed to analyze the dynamics of nonlinear singular Thomas-Fermi equation (TFE) arising in potential and charge density models of an atom by exploiting the strength of finite difference scheme (FDS) for discretization and optimization through genetic algorithms (GAs) hybrid with sequential quadratic programming. The FDS procedures are used to transform the TFE differential equations into a system of nonlinear equations. A fitness function is constructed based on the residual error of constituent equations in the mean square sense and is formulated as the minimization problem. Optimization of parameters for the system is carried out with GAs, used as a tool for viable global search integrated with SQP algorithm for rapid refinement of the results. The design scheme is applied to solve TFE for five different scenarios by taking various step sizes and different input intervals. Comparison of the proposed results with the state of the art numerical and analytical solutions reveals that the worth of our scheme in terms of accuracy and convergence. The reliability and effectiveness of the proposed scheme are validated through consistently getting optimal values of statistical performance indices calculated for a sufficiently large number of independent runs to establish its significance.