Early Outpatient Treatment for Covid-19 with Convalescent Plasma.

BACKGROUND: Polyclonal convalescent plasma may be obtained from donors who have recovered from coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19). The efficacy of this plasma in preventing serious complications in outpatients with recent-onset Covid-19 is uncertain. METHODS: In this multicenter, double-blind, randomized, controlled trial, we evaluated the efficacy and safety of Covid-19 convalescent plasma, as compared with control plasma, in symptomatic adults (≥18 years of age) who had tested positive for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, regardless of their risk factors for disease progression or vaccination status. Participants were enrolled within 8 days after symptom onset and received a transfusion within 1 day after randomization. The primary outcome was Covid-19-related hospitalization within 28 days after transfusion. RESULTS: Participants were enrolled from June 3, 2020, through October 1, 2021. A total of 1225 participants underwent randomization, and 1181 received a transfusion. In the prespecified modified intention-to-treat analysis that included only participants who received a transfusion, the primary outcome occurred in 17 of 592 participants (2.9%) who received convalescent plasma and 37 of 589 participants (6.3%) who received control plasma (absolute risk reduction, 3.4 percentage points; 95% confidence interval, 1.0 to 5.8; P = 0.005), which corresponded to a relative risk reduction of 54%. Evidence of efficacy in vaccinated participants cannot be inferred from these data because 53 of the 54 participants with Covid-19 who were hospitalized were unvaccinated and 1 participant was partially vaccinated. A total of 16 grade 3 or 4 adverse events (7 in the convalescent-plasma group and 9 in the control-plasma group) occurred in participants who were not hospitalized. CONCLUSIONS: In participants with Covid-19, most of whom were unvaccinated, the administration of convalescent plasma within 9 days after the onset of symptoms reduced the risk of disease progression leading to hospitalization. (Funded by the Department of Defense and others; CSSC-004 ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT04373460.).

Discrete-state models identify pathway specific B cell states across diseases and infections at single-cell resolution.

Oxygen (O2) regulated pathways modulate B cell activation, migration and proliferation during infection, vaccination, and other diseases. Modeling these pathways in health and disease is critical to understand B cell states and ways to mediate them. To characterize B cells by their activation of O2 regulated pathways we develop pathway specific discrete state models using previously published single-cell RNA-sequencing (scRNA-seq) datasets from isolated B cells. Specifically, Single Cell Boolean Omics Network Invariant-Time Analysis (scBONITA) was used to infer logic gates for known pathway topologies. The simplest inferred set of logic gates that maximized the number of "OR" interactions between genes was used to simulate B cell networks involved in oxygen sensing until they reached steady network states (attractors). By focusing on the attractors that best represented sequenced cells, we identified genes critical in determining pathway specific cellular states that corresponded to diseased and healthy B cell phenotypes. Specifically, we investigate the transendothelial migration, regulation of actin cytoskeleton, HIF1A, and Citrate Cycle pathways. Our analysis revealed attractors that resembled the state of B cell exhaustion in HIV+ patients as well as attractors that promoted anerobic metabolism, angiogenesis, and tumorigenesis in breast cancer patients, which were eliminated after neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NACT). Finally, we investigated the attractors to which the Azimuth-annotated B cells mapped and found that attractors resembling B cells from HIV+ patients encompassed a significantly larger number of atypical memory B cells than HIV- attractors. Meanwhile, attractors resembling B cells from breast cancer patients post NACT encompassed a reduced number of atypical memory B cells compared to pre-NACT attractors.

Executable Network Models of Integrated Multiomics Data.

Multiomics profiling provides a holistic picture of a condition being examined and captures the complexity of signaling events, beginning from the original cause (environmental or genetic), to downstream functional changes at multiple molecular layers. Pathway enrichment analysis has been used with multiomics data sets to characterize signaling mechanisms. However, technical and biological variability between these layered data limit an integrative computational analyses. We present a Boolean network-based method, multiomics Boolean Omics Network Invariant-Time Analysis (mBONITA), to integrate omics data sets that quantify multiple molecular layers. mBONITA utilizes prior knowledge networks to perform topology-based pathway analysis. In addition, mBONITA identifies genes that are consistently modulated across molecular measurements by combining observed fold-changes and variance, with a measure of node (i.e., gene or protein) influence over signaling, and a measure of the strength of evidence for that gene across data sets. We used mBONITA to integrate multiomics data sets from RAMOS B cells treated with the immunosuppressant drug cyclosporine A under varying O2 tensions to identify pathways involved in hypoxia-mediated chemotaxis. We compare mBONITA's performance with 6 other pathway analysis methods designed for multiomics data and show that mBONITA identifies a set of pathways with evidence of modulation across all omics layers. mBONITA is freely available at https://github.com/Thakar-Lab/mBONITA.

WikiNetworks: translating manually created biological pathways for topological analysis.

SUMMARY: WikiPathways is a database of 2979 biological pathways across 31 species created using the drawing software PathVisio. Many of these pathways are not directly usable for network-based topological analyses due to differences in curation styles and drawings. We developed the WikiNetworks package to standardize and construct directed networks by combining geometric information and manual annotations from WikiPathways. WikiNetworks performs significantly better than existing tools. This enables the use of high-quality WikiPathways resource for network-based topological analysis of high-throughput data. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: WikiNetworks is written in Python3 and is available on github.com/Thakar-Lab/wikinetworks and on PyPI. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Transfusion reactions associated with COVID-19 convalescent plasma in outpatient clinical trials.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 convalescent plasma (CCP) is an important therapeutic option for outpatients at high risk of hospitalization from SARS-CoV-2 infection. We assessed the safety of outpatient CCP transfusions administered during clinical trials. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: We analyzed data pertaining to transfusion-related reactions from two randomized controlled trials in the U.S. that evaluated the efficacy of CCP versus control plasma in various ambulatory settings. Multivariable logistic regression was used to assess whether CCP was associated with transfusion reactions, after adjusting for potential confounders. RESULTS: The combined study reported 79/1351 (5.9%) adverse events during the transfusion visit, with the majority 62/1351 (4.6%) characterized by mild, allergic-type findings of urticaria, and/or pruritus consistent with minor allergic transfusion reactions; the other reported events were attributed to the patients' underlying disease, COVID-19, or vasovagal in nature. We found no difference in the likelihood of allergic transfusion reactions between those receiving CCP versus control plasma (adjusted odds ratio [AOR], 0.75; 95% CI, 0.43-1.31). Risk of urticaria and/or pruritus increased with a pre-existing diagnosis of asthma (AOR, 2.33; 95% CI, 1.16-4.67). We did not observe any CCP-attributed antibody disease enhancement in participants with COVID-19 or increased risk of infection. There were no life-threatening severe transfusion reactions and no patients required hospitalization related to transfusion-associated complications. DISCUSSION: Outpatient plasma administration was safely performed for nearly 1400 participants. CCP is a safe therapeutic option for outpatients at risk of hospitalization from COVID-19.

Clinical and Analytic Accuracy of Simultaneously Acquired Hemoglobin Measurements: A Multi-Institution Cohort Study to Minimize Redundant Laboratory Usage.

OBJECTIVES: Frequent diagnostic blood sampling contributes to anemia among critically ill children. Reducing duplicative hemoglobin testing while maintaining clinical accuracy can improve patient care efficacy. The objective of this study was to determine the analytical and clinical accuracy of simultaneously acquired hemoglobin measurements with different methods. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING: Two U.S. children's hospitals. PATIENTS: Children (< 18 yr old) admitted to the PICU. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: We identified hemoglobin results from complete blood count (CBC) panels paired with blood gas (BG) panels and point-of-care (POC) devices. We estimated analytic accuracy by comparing hemoglobin distributions, correlation coefficients, and Bland-Altman bias. We measured clinical accuracy with error grid analysis and defined mismatch zones as low, medium, or high risk-based on deviance from unity and risk of therapeutic error. We calculated pairwise agreement to a binary decision to transfuse based on a hemoglobin value. Our cohort includes 49,004 ICU admissions from 29,926 patients, resulting in 85,757 CBC-BG hemoglobin pairs. BG hemoglobin was significantly higher (mean bias, 0.43-0.58 g/dL) than CBC hemoglobin with similar Pearson correlation ( R2 ) (0.90-0.91). POC hemoglobin was also significantly higher, but of lower magnitude (mean bias, 0.14 g/dL). Error grid analysis revealed only 78 (< 0.1%) CBC-BG hemoglobin pairs in the high-risk zone. For CBC-BG hemoglobin pairs, at a BG hemoglobin cutoff of greater than 8.0 g/dL, the "number needed to miss" a CBC hemoglobin less than 7 g/dL was 275 and 474 at each institution, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: In this pragmatic two-institution cohort of greater than 29,000 patients, we show similar clinical and analytic accuracy of CBC and BG hemoglobin. Although BG hemoglobin values are higher than CBC hemoglobin values, the small magnitude is unlikely to be clinically significant. Application of these findings may reduce duplicative testing and decrease anemia among critically ill children.

IgG Against Human Betacoronavirus Spike Proteins Correlates With SARS-CoV-2 Anti-Spike IgG Responses and COVID-19 Disease Severity.

BACKGROUND: A protective antibody response to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is crucial to decrease morbidity and mortality from severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) disease. The effects of preexisting anti-human coronavirus (HCoV) antibodies on the SARS-CoV-2-specific immunoglobulin G (IgG) responses and severity of disease are currently unclear. METHODS: We profiled anti-spike (S), S1, S2, and receptor-binding domain IgG antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 and 6 HCoVs using a multiplex assay (mPLEX-CoV) with serum samples from SARS-CoV-2 infected (n = 155) and pre-COVID-19 (n = 188) cohorts. RESULTS: COVID-19 subjects showed significantly increased anti-S SARS-CoV-2 IgG levels that were highly correlated with IgG antibodies against OC43 and HKU1 S proteins. However, OC43 and HKU1 anti-S antibodies in pre-COVID-19 era sera did not cross-react with SARS-CoV-2. Unidirectional cross-reactive antibodies elicited by SARS-CoV-2 infection were distinct from the bidirectional cross-reactive antibodies recognizing homologous strains RaTG13 and SARS-CoV-1. High anti-OC43 and anti-S2 antibody levels were associated with both a rapid anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibody response and increased disease severity. Subjects with increased sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) scores developed a higher ratio of S2- to S1-reactive antibodies. CONCLUSIONS: Early and rapid emergence of OC43 S- and S2-reactive IgG after SARS-CoV-2 infection correlates with COVID-19 disease severity.

How do I implement an outpatient program for the administration of convalescent plasma for COVID-19?

Convalescent plasma, collected from donors who have recovered from a pathogen of interest, has been used to treat infectious diseases, particularly in times of outbreak, when alternative therapies were unavailable. The COVID-19 pandemic revived interest in the use of convalescent plasma. Large observational studies and clinical trials that were executed during the pandemic provided insight into how to use convalescent plasma, whereby high levels of antibodies against the pathogen of interest and administration early within the time course of the disease are critical for optimal therapeutic effect. Several studies have shown outpatient administration of COVID-19 convalescent plasma (CCP) to be both safe and effective, preventing clinical progression in patients when administered within the first week of COVID-19. The United States Food and Drug Administration expanded its emergency use authorization (EUA) to allow for the administration of CCP in an outpatient setting in December 2021, at least for immunocompromised patients or those on immunosuppressive therapy. Outpatient transfusion of CCP and infusion of monoclonal antibody therapies for a highly transmissible infectious disease introduces nuanced challenges related to infection prevention. Drawing on our experiences with the clinical and research use of CCP, we describe the logistical considerations and workflow spanning procurement of qualified products, infrastructure, staffing, transfusion, and associated management of adverse events. The purpose of this description is to facilitate the efforts of others intent on establishing outpatient transfusion programs for CCP and other antibody-based therapies.

A Multiplex Microsphere IgG Assay for SARS-CoV-2 Using ACE2-Mediated Inhibition as a Surrogate for Neutralization.

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has highlighted the challenges inherent to the serological detection of a novel pathogen such as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Serological tests can be used diagnostically and for surveillance, but their usefulness depends on their throughput, sensitivity, and specificity. Here, we describe a multiplex fluorescent microsphere-based assay, 3Flex, that can detect antibodies to three major SARS-CoV-2 antigens-spike (S) protein, the spike ACE2 receptor-binding domain (RBD), and nucleocapsid (NP). Specificity was assessed using 213 prepandemic samples. Sensitivity was measured and compared to that of the Abbott Architect SARS-CoV-2 IgG assay using serum samples from 125 unique patients equally binned (n = 25) into 5 time intervals (≤5, 6 to 10, 11 to 15, 16 to 20, and ≥21 days from symptom onset). With samples obtained at ≤5 days from symptom onset, the 3Flex assay was more sensitive (48.0% versus 32.0%), but the two assays performed comparably using serum obtained ≥21 days from symptom onset. A larger collection (n = 534) of discarded sera was profiled from patients (n = 140) whose COVID-19 course was characterized through chart review. This revealed the relative rise, peak (S, 23.8; RBD, 23.6; NP, 16.7 [in days from symptom onset]), and decline of the antibody response. Considerable interperson variation was observed with a subset of extensively sampled intensive care unit (ICU) patients. Using soluble ACE2, inhibition of antibody binding was demonstrated for S and RBD, and not for NP. Taking the data together, this study described the performance of an assay built on a flexible and high-throughput serological platform that proved adaptable to the emergence of a novel infectious agent.

Cyclosporine a directly affects human and mouse b cell migration in vitro by disrupting a hIF-1 αdependent, o2 sensing, molecular switch.

BACKGROUND: Hypoxia is a potent molecular signal for cellular metabolism, mitochondrial function, and migration. Conditions of low oxygen tension trigger regulatory cascades mediated via the highly conserved HIF-1 α post-translational modification system. In the adaptive immune response, B cells (Bc) are activated and differentiate under hypoxic conditions within lymph node germinal centers, and subsequently migrate to other compartments. During migration, they traverse through changing oxygen levels, ranging from 1-5% in the lymph node to 5-13% in the peripheral blood. Interestingly, the calcineurin inhibitor cyclosporine A is known to stimulate prolyl hydroxylase activity, resulting in HIF-1 α destabilization and may alter Bc responses directly. Over 60% of patients taking calcineurin immunosuppressant medications have hypo-gammaglobulinemia and poor vaccine responses, putting them at high risk of infection with significantly increased morbidity and mortality. RESULTS: We demonstrate that O 2 tension is a previously unrecognized Bc regulatory switch, altering CXCR4 and CXCR5 chemokine receptor signaling in activated Bc through HIF-1 α expression, and controlling critical aspects of Bc migration. Our data demonstrate that calcineurin inhibition hinders this O 2 regulatory switch in primary human Bc. CONCLUSION: This previously unrecognized effect of calcineurin inhibition directly on human Bc has significant and direct clinical implications.

Broad Hemagglutinin-Specific Memory B Cell Expansion by Seasonal Influenza Virus Infection Reflects Early-Life Imprinting and Adaptation to the Infecting Virus.

Memory B cells (MBCs) are key determinants of the B cell response to influenza virus infection and vaccination, but the effect of different forms of influenza antigen exposure on MBC populations has received little attention. We analyzed peripheral blood mononuclear cells and plasma collected following human H3N2 influenza infection to investigate the relationship between hemagglutinin-specific antibody production and changes in the size and character of hemagglutinin-reactive MBC populations. Infection produced increased concentrations of plasma IgG reactive to the H3 head of the infecting virus, to the conserved stalk, and to a broad chronological range of H3s consistent with original antigenic sin responses. H3-reactive IgG MBC expansion after infection included reactivity to head and stalk domains. Notably, expansion of H3 head-reactive MBC populations was particularly broad and reflected original antigenic sin patterns of IgG production. Findings also suggest that early-life H3N2 infection "imprints" for strong H3 stalk-specific MBC expansion. Despite the breadth of MBC expansion, the MBC response included an increase in affinity for the H3 head of the infecting virus. Overall, our findings indicate that H3-reactive MBC expansion following H3N2 infection is consistent with maintenance of response patterns established early in life, but nevertheless includes MBC adaptation to the infecting virus.IMPORTANCE Rapid and vigorous virus-specific antibody responses to influenza virus infection and vaccination result from activation of preexisting virus-specific memory B cells (MBCs). Understanding the effects of different forms of influenza virus exposure on MBC populations is therefore an important guide to the development of effective immunization strategies. We demonstrate that exposure to the influenza hemagglutinin via natural infection enhances broad protection through expansion of hemagglutinin-reactive MBC populations that recognize head and stalk regions of the molecule. Notably, we show that hemagglutinin-reactive MBC expansion reflects imprinting by early-life infection and that this might apply to stalk-reactive, as well as to head-reactive, MBCs. Our findings provide experimental support for the role of MBCs in maintaining imprinting effects and suggest a mechanism by which imprinting might confer heterosubtypic protection against avian influenza viruses. It will be important to compare our findings to the situation after influenza vaccination.

Surfactant Cocktail-Aided Extraction/Precipitation/On-Pellet Digestion Strategy Enables Efficient and Reproducible Sample Preparation for Large-Scale Quantitative Proteomics.

For quantitative proteomics, efficient, robust, and reproducible sample preparation with high throughput is critical yet challenging, especially when large cohorts are involved, as is often required by clinical/pharmaceutical studies. We describe a rapid and straightforward surfactant cocktail-aided extraction/precipitation/on-pellet digestion (SEPOD) strategy to address this need. Prior to organic solvent precipitation and on-pellet digestion, SEPOD treats samples with a surfactant cocktail (SC) containing multiple nonionic/anionic surfactants, which achieves (i) exhaustive/reproducible protein extraction, including membrane-bound proteins; (ii) effective removal of detrimental nonprotein matrix components (e.g., >94% of phospholipids); (iii) rapid/efficient proteolytic digestion owing to dual (surfactants + precipitation) denaturation. The optimal SC composition and concentrations were determined by Orthogonal-Array-Design investigation of their collective/individuals effects on protein extraction/denaturation. Key parameters for cleanup and digestion were experimentally identified as well. The optimized SEPOD procedures allowed a rapid 6 h digestion providing a clean digest with high peptide yields and excellent quantitative reproducibility (especially low-abundance proteins). Compared with filter-assisted sample preparation (FASP) and in-solution digestion, SEPOD showed superior performance by recovering substantially more peptide/proteins (including integral membrane proteins), yielding significantly higher peptide intensities and improving quantification for peptides with extreme physicochemical properties. SEPOD was further applied in a large-cohort temporal investigation of 44 IAV-infected mouse lungs, providing efficient and reproducible peptide yields (77.9 ± 4.6%) across all samples. With the IonStar pipeline, >6 400 unique protein groups were quantified (≥2 peptide/protein, peptide-FDR < 0.05%), ∼99% without missing data in any sample with <7% technical median-intragroup CV. Altered proteome patterns revealed interesting novel insights into pathophysiological changes by IAV infection. In summary, SEPOD offers a feasible solution for rapid, efficient, and reproducible preparation of biological samples, facilitating high-quality proteomic quantification of large sample cohorts.

Visualizing nationwide variation in medicare Part D prescribing patterns.

BACKGROUND: To characterize the regional and national variation in prescribing patterns in the Medicare Part D program using dimensional reduction visualization methods. METHODS: Using publicly available Medicare Part D claims data, we identified and visualized regional and national provider prescribing profile variation with unsupervised clustering and t-distributed stochastic neighbor embedding (t-SNE) dimensional reduction techniques. Additionally, we examined differences between regionally representative prescribing patterns for major metropolitan areas. RESULTS: Distributions of prescribing volume and medication diversity were highly skewed among over 800,000 Medicare Part D providers. Medical specialties had characteristic prescribing patterns. Although the number of Medicare providers in each state was highly correlated with the number of Medicare Part D enrollees, some states were enriched for providers with > 10,000 prescription claims annually. Dimension-reduction, hierarchical clustering and t-SNE visualization of drug- or drug-class prescribing patterns revealed that providers cluster strongly based on specialty and sub-specialty, with large regional variations in prescribing patterns. Major metropolitan areas had distinct prescribing patterns that tended to group by major geographical divisions. CONCLUSIONS: This work demonstrates that unsupervised clustering, dimension-reduction and t-SNE visualization can be used to analyze and visualize variation in provider prescribing patterns on a national level across thousands of medications, revealing substantial prescribing variation both between and within specialties, regionally, and between major metropolitan areas. These methods offer an alternative system-wide and pattern-centric view of such data for hypothesis generation, visualization, and pattern identification.

Bon-EV: an improved multiple testing procedure for controlling false discovery rates.

BACKGROUND: Stability of multiple testing procedures, defined as the standard deviation of total number of discoveries, can be used as an indicator of variability of multiple testing procedures. Improving stability of multiple testing procedures can help to increase the consistency of findings from replicated experiments. Benjamini-Hochberg's and Storey's q-value procedures are two commonly used multiple testing procedures for controlling false discoveries in genomic studies. Storey's q-value procedure has higher power and lower stability than Benjamini-Hochberg's procedure. To improve upon the stability of Storey's q-value procedure and maintain its high power in genomic data analysis, we propose a new multiple testing procedure, named Bon-EV, to control false discovery rate (FDR) based on Bonferroni's approach. RESULTS: Simulation studies show that our proposed Bon-EV procedure can maintain the high power of the Storey's q-value procedure and also result in better FDR control and higher stability than Storey's q-value procedure for samples of large size(30 in each group) and medium size (15 in each group) for either independent, somewhat correlated, or highly correlated test statistics. When sample size is small (5 in each group), our proposed Bon-EV procedure has performance between the Benjamini-Hochberg procedure and the Storey's q-value procedure. Examples using RNA-Seq data show that the Bon-EV procedure has higher stability than the Storey's q-value procedure while maintaining equivalent power, and higher power than the Benjamini-Hochberg's procedure. CONCLUSIONS: For medium or large sample sizes, the Bon-EV procedure has improved FDR control and stability compared with the Storey's q-value procedure and improved power compared with the Benjamini-Hochberg procedure. The Bon-EV multiple testing procedure is available as the BonEV package in R for download at https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=BonEV .

Ion-Current-Based Temporal Proteomic Profiling of Influenza-A-Virus-Infected Mouse Lungs Revealed Underlying Mechanisms of Altered Integrity of the Lung Microvascular Barrier.

Investigation of influenza-A-virus (IAV)-infected lung proteomes will greatly promote our understanding on the virus-host crosstalk. Using a detergent-cocktail extraction and digestion procedure and a reproducible ion-current-based method, we performed the first comprehensive temporal analysis of mouse IAV infection. Mouse lung tissues at three time points post-inoculation were compared with controls (n = 4/group), and >1600 proteins were quantified without missing value in any animal. Significantly changed proteins were identified at 4 days (n = 144), 7 days (n = 695), and 10 days (n = 396) after infection, with low false altered protein rates (1.73-8.39%). Functional annotation revealed several key biological processes involved in the systemic host responses. Intriguingly, decreased levels of several cell junction proteins as well as increased levels of tissue metalloproteinase MMP9 were observed, reflecting the IAV-induced structural breakdown of lung epithelial barrier. Supporting evidence of MMP9 activation came from immunoassays examining the abundance and phosphorylation states of all MAPKs and several relevant molecules. Importantly, IAV-induced MMP gelatinase expression was suggested to be specific to MMP9, and p38 MAPK may contribute predominantly to MMP9 elevation. These findings help to resolve the long-lasting debate regarding the signaling pathways of IAV-induced MMP9 expression and shed light on the molecular mechanisms underlying pulmonary capillary-alveolar leak syndrome that can occur during influenza infection.

An improved method for estimating antibody titers in microneutralization assay using green fluorescent protein.

Viruses that express reporter genes upon infection have been recently used to evaluate neutralizing antibody responses, where a lack of reporter expression indicates specific virus inhibition. The traditional model-based methods using standard outcome of percent neutralization could be applied to the data from the assays to estimate antibody titers. However, the data produced are sometimes irregular, which can yield meaningless outcomes of percent neutralization that do not fit the typical curves for immunoassays, making automated or semi-high throughput antibody titer estimation unreliable. We developed a type of new outcomes model, which is biologically meaningful and fits typical immunoassay curves well. Our simulation study indicates that the new response approach outperforms the traditional response approach regardless of the data variability. The proposed new response approach can be used in similar assays for other disease models.

Investigating Ethical Tradeoffs in Crisis Standards of Care through Simulation of Ventilator Allocation Protocols.

Introduction: Arguments over the appropriate Crisis Standards of Care (CSC) for public health emergencies often assume that there is a tradeoff between saving the most lives, saving the most life-years, and preventing racial disparities. However, these assumptions have rarely been explored empirically. To quantitatively characterize possible ethical tradeoffs, we aimed to simulate the implementation of five proposed CSC protocols for rationing ventilators in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: A Monte Carlo simulation was used to estimate the number of lives saved and life-years saved by implementing clinical acuity-, comorbidity- and age-based CSC protocols under different shortage conditions. This model was populated with patient data from 3707 adult admissions requiring ventilator support in a New York hospital system between April 2020 and May 2021. To estimate lives and life-years saved by each protocol, we determined survival to discharge and estimated remaining life expectancy for each admission. Results: The simulation demonstrated stronger performance for age- and comorbidity-sensitive protocols. For a capacity of 1 bed per 2 patients, ranking by age bands saves approximately 28.7 lives and 3408 life-years per thousand patients, while ranking by Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) bands saved the fewest lives (13.2) and life-years (416). For all protocols, we observed a positive correlation between lives saved and life-years saved. For all protocols except lottery and the banded SOFA, significant disparities in lives saved and life-years saved were noted between White non-Hispanic, Black non-Hispanic, and Hispanic sub-populations. Conclusion: While there is significant variance in the number of lives saved and life-years saved, we did not find a tradeoff between saving the most lives and saving the most life-years. Moreover, concerns about racial discrimination in triage protocols require thinking carefully about the tradeoff between enforcing equality of survival rates and maximizing the lives saved in each sub-population.

Ventilation during COVID-19 in a school for students with intellectual and developmental disabilities (IDD).

BACKGROUND: This study examined the correlation of classroom ventilation (air exchanges per hour (ACH)) and exposure to CO2 ≥1,000 ppm with the incidence of SARS-CoV-2 over a 20-month period in a specialized school for students with intellectual and developmental disabilities (IDD). These students were at a higher risk of respiratory infection from SARS-CoV-2 due to challenges in tolerating mitigation measures (e.g. masking). One in-school measure proposed to help mitigate the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection in schools is increased ventilation. METHODS: We established a community-engaged research partnership between the University of Rochester and the Mary Cariola Center school for students with IDD. Ambient CO2 levels were measured in 100 school rooms, and air changes per hour (ACH) were calculated. The number of SARS-CoV-2 cases for each room was collected over 20 months. RESULTS: 97% of rooms had an estimated ACH ≤4.0, with 7% having CO2 levels ≥2,000 ppm for up to 3 hours per school day. A statistically significant correlation was found between the time that a room had CO2 levels ≥1,000 ppm and SARS-CoV-2 PCR tests normalized to room occupancy, accounting for 43% of the variance. No statistically significant correlation was found for room ACH and per-room SARS-CoV-2 cases. Rooms with ventilation systems using MERV-13 filters had lower SARS-CoV-2-positive PCR counts. These findings led to ongoing efforts to upgrade the ventilation systems in this community-engaged research project. CONCLUSIONS: There was a statistically significant correlation between the total time of room CO2 concentrations ≥1,000 and SARS-CoV-2 cases in an IDD school. Merv-13 filters appear to decrease the incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection. This research partnership identified areas for improving in-school ventilation.

Outpatient COVID-19 convalescent plasma recipient antibody thresholds correlated to reduced hospitalizations within a randomized trial.

BACKGROUNDCOVID-19 convalescent plasma (CCP) virus-specific antibody levels that translate into recipient posttransfusion antibody levels sufficient to prevent disease progression are not defined.METHODSThis secondary analysis correlated donor and recipient antibody levels to hospitalization risk among unvaccinated, seronegative CCP recipients within the outpatient, double-blind, randomized clinical trial that compared CCP to control plasma. The majority of COVID-19 CCP arm hospitalizations (15/17, 88%) occurred in this unvaccinated, seronegative subgroup. A functional cutoff to delineate recipient high versus low posttransfusion antibody levels was established by 2 methods: (i) analyzing virus neutralization-equivalent anti-Spike receptor-binding domain immunoglobulin G (anti-S-RBD IgG) responses in donors or (ii) receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis.RESULTSSARS-CoV-2 anti-S-RBD IgG antibody was volume diluted 21.3-fold into posttransfusion seronegative recipients from matched donor units. Virus-specific antibody delivered was approximately 1.2 mg. The high-antibody recipients transfused early (symptom onset within 5 days) had no hospitalizations. A CCP-recipient analysis for antibody thresholds correlated to reduced hospitalizations found a statistical significant association between early transfusion and high antibodies versus all other CCP recipients (or control plasma), with antibody cutoffs established by both methods-donor-based virus neutralization cutoffs in posttransfusion recipients (0/85 [0%] versus 15/276 [5.6%]; P = 0.03) or ROC-based cutoff (0/94 [0%] versus 15/267 [5.4%]; P = 0.01).CONCLUSIONIn unvaccinated, seronegative CCP recipients, early transfusion of plasma units in the upper 30% of study donors' antibody levels reduced outpatient hospitalizations. High antibody level plasma units, given early, should be reserved for therapeutic use.TRIAL REGISTRATIONClinicalTrials.gov NCT04373460.FUNDINGDepartment of Defense (W911QY2090012); Defense Health Agency; Bloomberg Philanthropies; the State of Maryland; NIH (3R01AI152078-01S1, U24TR001609-S3, 1K23HL151826NIH); the Mental Wellness Foundation; the Moriah Fund; Octapharma; the Healthnetwork Foundation; the Shear Family Foundation; the NorthShore Research Institute; and the Rice Foundation.

Modeling of influenza-specific CD8+ T cells during the primary response indicates that the spleen is a major source of effectors.

The biological parameters that determine the distribution of virus-specific CD8(+) T cells during influenza infection are not all directly measurable by experimental techniques but can be inferred through mathematical modeling. Mechanistic and semimechanistic ordinary differential equations were developed to describe the expansion, trafficking, and disappearance of activated virus-specific CD8(+) T cells in lymph nodes, spleens, and lungs of mice during primary influenza A infection. An intensive sampling of virus-specific CD8(+) T cells from these three compartments was used to inform the models. Rigorous statistical fitting of the models to the experimental data allowed estimation of important biological parameters. Although the draining lymph node is the first tissue in which Ag-specific CD8(+) T cells are detected, it was found that the spleen contributes the greatest number of effector CD8(+) T cells to the lung, with rates of expansion and migration that exceeded those of the draining lymph node. In addition, models that were based on the number and kinetics of professional APCs fit the data better than those based on viral load, suggesting that the immune response is limited by Ag presentation rather than the amount of virus. Modeling also suggests that loss of effector T cells from the lung is significant and time dependent, increasing toward the end of the acute response. Together, these efforts provide a better understanding of the primary CD8(+) T cell response to influenza infection, changing the view that the spleen plays a minor role in the primary immune response.