RESUMO
Studying the historical and future trends of water resources in a basin and explaining the causes of water resource changes is very important, which is key to the management of water resources in a basin. The Hanjiang River Basin is an important water supply source for southwestern Fujian and eastern Guangdong, but it has an uneven spatial and temporal distribution of water resources and an outstanding conflict between supply and demand. In this study, the SWAT model was used to simulate the conditions of the Hanjiang River Basin in the last 50 years, using long time series climate data to study the characteristics and driving mechanism of water resources trend change. The results show that the water resources in the basin have not increased significantly in the last 50 years, but evapotranspiration has increased significantly. The forecast results for water resources in the future are reduced. The water resource changes in the basin have been unevenly distributed in the last 50 years. Climate change has been the main factor in total water resource change in the basin, while the difference in water resource change trends within the basin is caused by land use. The key reason for the decrease in water resources in the Hanjiang River Basin is the significant increase in evapotranspiration due to the significant increase in temperature. If this situation continues, the available water resources in the basin will continue to decline. In fact, many basins around the world are currently likely to have such problems, such as the 2022 summer drought in the Danube River Basin in Europe and the Yangtze River Basin in China, so this article is informative and representative of future water resources management in the basin.
Assuntos
Rios , Recursos Hídricos , Abastecimento de Água , Água , China , Mudança ClimáticaRESUMO
The Pan-Pearl River Basin is a bridgehead for China's reform and opening-up and the construction of the Belt and Road at Sea, with vital strategic significance in Chinese overall development. Land use data and climate and socio-economic indicators were integrated to probe the spatiotemporal change and its driving forces of land use in the Pan-Pearl River basin with ArcGIS spatial analysis tool and SPSS factor analysis tool. Results showed that land use in the Pan-Pearl River Basin significantly changed between 1990 and 2015, with decreases of the area of paddy field and woodland and rapid increases of urban land and other construction land. Outflow of grassland occurred in the northwestern part of the basin. Reduction of cultivated field was mainly concentrated in the central part of the basin and coastal areas. Increases in urban and rural land, industrial and mining land, and residential land were centrally distributed in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Marco Greater Bay Area. The prominent change areas were Guangdong-Hong Kong-Marco Greater Bay Area : central and southeast of Guangxi Province : northern Hainan Province. Land use changes during 1990-2000 were most obvious in the basin. The main driving factor of spatiotemporal variation of land use was the rapid development of social economy and industry and the improvement of residents' consumption level.