Improving our understanding of the paradoxical protective effect of obesity on radiographic damage: a large magnetic resonance imaging-study in early arthritis.

OBJECTIVE: Obesity conveys a risk for RA development, while paradoxically, associating with less radiographic progression after RA diagnosis. Using MRI we can study this surprising association in detail from MRI-detected synovitis and osteitis to MRI-detected erosive progression, which precedes radiographic progression. Previous research suggested obesity associates with less osteitis and synovitis. We therefore aimed to (i) validate the previously suggested association between BMI and MRI-detected osteitis/synovitis; (ii) study whether this is specific for ACPA-positive or ACPA-negative RA or also present in other arthritides; (iii) study whether MRI-detected osteitis associates with MRI-detected erosive progression; and (iv) study whether obesity associates with MRI-detected erosive progression. METHODS: We studied 1029 early arthritis patients (454 RA, 575 other arthritides), consecutively included in Leiden Early Arthritis Clinic. At baseline patients underwent hand-and-foot MRI that were RAMRIS-scored, and 149 RA patients underwent follow-up MRIs. We studied associations between baseline BMI and MRI-detected osteitis/synovitis (using linear regression), and erosive progression (using Poisson mixed models). RESULTS: In RA, higher BMI associated with less osteitis at disease onset (ß = 0.94; 95% CI: 0.93, 0.96) but not with synovitis. Higher BMI associated with less osteitis in ACPA-positive RA (ß = 0.95; 95% CI: 0.93, 0.97), ACPA-negative RA (ß = 0.97; 95% CI: 0.95, 0.99) and other arthritides (ß = 0.98; 95% CI: 0.96, 0.99). Over 2 years, overweight and obesity associated with less MRI-detected erosive progression (P = 0.02 and 0.03, respectively). Osteitis also associated with erosive progression over 2 years (P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: High BMI relates to less osteitis at disease onset, which is not confined to RA. Within RA, high BMI and less osteitis associated with less MRI-detected erosive progression. This suggests that the protective effect of obesity on radiographic progression is exerted via a path of less osteitis and subsequently fewer MRI-detected erosions.

Are MRI-detected erosions specific for RA? A large explorative cross-sectional study.

OBJECTIVES: MRI is recommended in the diagnostic process of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) to detect joint damage early. MRI-detected erosions are also present in symptom-free controls, especially at older age. It is unclear if RA-specific MRI-detected erosions can be distinguished from 'physiological' erosions in symptom-free individuals. This study compared MRI-detected erosions of patients with RA with healthy controls and with other arthritides. METHODS: 589 newly presenting patients with early arthritis (238 RA, 351 other arthritides) and 193 symptom-free controls underwent contrast-enhanced 1.5T MRI of unilateral metacarpophalangeal and metatarsophalangeal (MTP) joints. Total erosion score (according to the Rheumatoid Arthritis MRI Scoring System), number, severity, location of erosions and simultaneous presence of MRI-detected inflammation (synovitis and/or bone marrow oedema) were compared; participants were categorised in three age groups (<40, 40-59, ≥60). RESULTS: Patients with RA had statistically significant higher total erosion scores than controls but scores of individual persons largely overlapped. Grade ≥2 erosions and MTP5 erosions were specific for RA (specificity 98%-100% and 90%-98% for different age groups). MTP1 erosions were only specific if aged <40 (specificity 98%) and erosions with inflammation if aged <60 (specificity 91%-100%). ≥1 of the mentioned erosion characteristics were present in 29% of patients with RA. Comparing patients with RA with other arthritides revealed that grade ≥2 erosions and MTP5 erosions remained specific for RA (specificity ≥89%) as well as MTP1 erosions if aged <40 (specificity 93%), in contrast to erosions combined with inflammation (specificity 49%-85%). CONCLUSIONS: Total erosion scores of individual persons were largely overlapping. Erosion characteristics specific for RA were identified, but were infrequently present. Caution is needed not to overestimate the value of MRI erosions in the diagnostic process.

Differences in the symptomatic phase preceding ACPA-positive and ACPA-negative RA: a longitudinal study in arthralgia during progression to clinical arthritis.

OBJECTIVE: Although anticitrullinated protein antibody (ACPA)-positive and ACPA-negative rheumatoid arthritis (RA) have different aetiopathology, the clinical presentation at the time of diagnosis is similar. This study evaluated whether there are phenotypic differences in the symptomatic pre-RA phase. METHODS: Patients with arthralgia included in the Leiden clinically suspect arthralgia cohort who developed arthritis during follow-up were studied (n=67). Symptoms at symptom onset, symptoms and signs at presentation with arthralgia and time to arthritis development were compared between ACPA-positive and ACPA-negative patients. RESULTS: In ACPA-negative patients (n=37), the location of initial symptoms less often included the lower extremities (22% vs 50%, p=0.014). At presentation with arthralgia, ACPA-positive patients had a longer symptom duration (median 22 vs 14 weeks, p=0.005), less tender joints (mean 5 vs 9, p=0.007) and less difficulty making a fist (11% vs 43%, p=0.004). However, after presentation with arthralgia, ACPA-positive patients developed arthritis more quickly (median 6 vs 18 weeks, p=0.015). A partial least squares regression analysis showed clustering of ACPA-positive and ACPA-negative patients based on the above-mentioned clinical variables. CONCLUSION: This study is the first showing that ACPA-positive and ACPA-negative patients have clinical differences in the symptomatic phase preceding clinical arthritis. This contributes to the notion that ACPA-positive and ACPA-negative RA develop differently.

EULAR definition of arthralgia suspicious for progression to rheumatoid arthritis.

BACKGROUND: During the transition to rheumatoid arthritis (RA) many patients pass through a phase characterised by the presence of symptoms without clinically apparent synovitis. These symptoms are not well-characterised. This taskforce aimed to define the clinical characteristics of patients with arthralgia who are considered at risk for RA by experts based on their clinical experience. METHODS: The taskforce consisted of 18 rheumatologists, 1 methodologist, 2 patients, 3 health professionals and 1 research fellow. The process had three phases. In phase I, a list of parameters considered characteristic for clinically suspect arthralgia (CSA) was derived; the most important parameters were selected by a three-phased Delphi approach. In phase II, the experts evaluated 50 existing patients on paper, classified them as CSA/no-CSA and indicated their level of confidence. A provisional set of parameters was derived. This was studied for validation in phase III, where all rheumatologists collected patients with and without CSA from their outpatient clinics. RESULTS: The comprehensive list consisted of 55 parameters, of which 16 were considered most important. A multivariable model based on the data from phase II identified seven relevant parameters: symptom duration <1 year, symptoms of metacarpophalangeal (MCP) joints, morning stiffness duration ≥60 min, most severe symptoms in early morning, first-degree relative with RA, difficulty with making a fist and positive squeeze test of MCP joints. In phase III, the combination of these parameters was accurate in identifying patients with arthralgia who were considered at risk of developing RA (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.92, 95% CI 0.87 to 0.96). Test characteristics for different cut-off points were determined. CONCLUSIONS: A set of clinical characteristics for patients with arthralgia who are at risk of progression to RA was established.

Validation of the EULAR definition of arthralgia suspicious for progression to rheumatoid arthritis.

Objectives: Recently a EULAR-taskforce defined arthralgia suspicious for progression to RA, in order to allow inclusion of homogeneous sets of arthralgia patients in clinical studies. This longitudinal study aimed (i) to validate this definition in arthralgia patients in whom rheumatologists felt that imminent RA was more likely than other arthralgias [clinically suspect arthralgia (CSA)], that is, the target population fulfilling the entry criterion, and (ii) to explore the performance in arthralgia patients who were referred to secondary care prior to rheumatological evaluation, hence ignoring the entry criterion. Methods: The definition was assessed in 241 Dutch patients identified with CSA by rheumatologists and 113 patients referred to the Umeå university hospital with recent-onset arthralgia in small joints. The external reference was arthritis development <2 years' follow-up. Results: CSA patients with a positive definition (⩾3/7 parameters present) had an increased risk for developing arthritis compared with definition-negative CSA patients (hazard ratio = 2.1, 95% CI: 0.9, 4.7). The sensitivity was 84% and the positive predictive value 30%. In arthralgia patients in whom the definition was applied before rheumatological evaluation, a positive definition was neither sensitive (10%) nor predictive (positive predictive value 3%). Conclusion: The EULAR definition of arthralgia suspicious for progression to RA is sensitive when used to support the rheumatologist's opinion on imminent RA. This validation study shows that the definition, when used as designed, further homogenizes patients that rheumatologists consider at risk for RA. To arrive at a high specificity, the clinical definition needs to be combined with biomarkers.

Evaluation of the diagnostic accuracy of hand and foot MRI for early Rheumatoid Arthritis.

Objectives: To assess the diagnostic value of MRI for early RA. In some RA patients, a classifiable diagnosis cannot be made at first presentation; these patients present with unclassified arthritis (UA). The use of MRI for early diagnosis of RA is recommended, yet the evidence for its reliability is limited. Methods: MRI of hand and foot was performed in 589 early arthritis patients included in the Leiden Early Arthritis Clinic (229 presented with RA, 159 with other arthritides and 201 with UA). Symptom-free controls provided a reference for defining an abnormal MRI. In preliminary investigations, MRI of patients who presented with RA was compared with MRI of symptom-free controls and of patients with other arthritides. Thereafter, the value of MRI in early RA diagnosis was determined in UA patients using the 1-year follow-up on fulfilling the 1987 RA criteria and start of disease-modifying drugs as outcomes. Results: Preliminary investigations were promising. Of the UA patients, 14% developed RA and 37% started disease-modifying treatment. MRI-detected tenosynovitis was associated with RA development independent of other types of MRI-detected inflammation [odds ratio (OR) = 7.5, 95% CI: 2.4, 23] and also independent of age and other inflammatory measures (swollen joints, CRP) (OR = 4.2, 95% CI: 1.4, 12.9). Within UA patients, the negative predictive value of abnormal tenosynovitis was 95% (95% CI: 89%, 98%) and the positive predictive value 25% (95% CI: 17%, 35%). The performance was best in the subgroup of UA patients presenting with oligoarthritis (18% developed RA): the positive predictive value was 36% (95% CI: 23%, 52%), the negative predictive value was 98% (95% CI: 88%, 100%), the sensitivity was 93% (95% CI: 70%, 99%) and the specificity was 63% (95% CI: 51%, 74%). Conclusion: MRI contributes to the identification of UA patients who will develop RA, mostly in UA patients presenting with oligoarthritis.

The risk of individual autoantibodies, autoantibody combinations and levels for arthritis development in clinically suspect arthralgia.

Objectives: Autoantibody testing is helpful for predicting the risk of progression to clinical arthritis in subjects at risk. Previous longitudinal studies have mainly selected autoantibody-positive arthralgia patients, and consequently the predictive values of autoantibodies were evaluated relative to one another. This study assessed the risks for arthritis development of ACPA, RF and/or anti-carbamylated protein antibodies (anti-CarP) in arthralgia patients considered at risk for RA by rheumatologists, based on clinical characteristics (clinically suspect arthralgia, CSA). Methods: The baseline ACPA, RF and anti-CarP autoantibody status of 241 patients, consecutively included in the CSA cohort, was studied for risk of developing clinical arthritis during a median follow-up of 103 (interquartile range: 81-114) weeks. Results: Univariable associations for arthritis development were observed for ACPA, RF and anti-CarP antibodies; hazard ratios (HRs) (95% CI) were 8.5 (4.7-15.5), 5.1 (2.8-9.3) and 3.9 (1.9-7.7), respectively. In multivariable analysis, only ACPA was independently associated (HR = 5.1; 2.0-13.2). Relative to autoantibody-negative CSA patients, ACPA-negative/RF-positive patients had HRs of 2.6 (1.04-6.6), ACPA-positive/RF-negative patients 8.0 (2.4-27.4) and ACPA-positive/RF-positive patients 10.5 (5.4-20.6). Positive predictive values for development of clinical arthritis within 2 years were: 38% for ACPA-negative/RF-positive, 50% for ACPA-positive/RF-negative and 67% for ACPA-positive/RF-positive patients. Higher ACPA levels were not significantly associated with increased progression to clinical arthritis, in contrast to higher RF levels. Autoantibody levels were stable during follow-up. Conclusion: ACPA conferred the highest risk for arthritis development and had an additive value to RF. However, >30% of ACPA-positive/RF-positive CSA patients did not develop arthritis during the 2-year follow-up. Thus, CSA and information on autoantibodies is insufficient for accurately identifying imminent autoantibody-positive RA.

Using a reference when defining an abnormal MRI reduces false-positive MRI results-a longitudinal study in two cohorts at risk for rheumatoid arthritis.

Objectives: The use of hand and foot MRI in the diagnostic process of RA has been advocated. Recent studies showed that MRI is helpful in predicting progression from clinically suspect arthralgia (CSA) to clinical arthritis, and from undifferentiated arthritis (UA) to RA. Symptom-free persons can also show inflammation on MRI. This study aimed to evaluate if MRI findings in symptom-free volunteers are relevant when defining a positive MRI. Methods: Two hundred and twenty-five CSA patients and two hundred and one UA patients underwent MRI of MCP, wrist and MTP joints at baseline and were followed for 1 year on progression to arthritis and RA, respectively, as reported previously. MRI was considered positive if ⩾ 1 joint showed inflammation (called uncorrected definition), or if ⩾ 1 joint had inflammation that was present in < 5% of persons of the same age category at the same location (called 5% corrected definition). Test characteristics were compared for both definitions. Results: By using MRI data of symptom-free volunteers as reference, specificity of MRI-detected inflammation increased from 22 to 56% in CSA patients, and from 10 to 36% in UA patients. The sensitivity was not affected; it was 88 and 85% in CSA patients and 93 and 93% in UA patients. The accuracy also increased, from 32 to 60% in CSA patients and 22 to 44% in UA patients. Conclusion: The use of a reference population resulted in a substantial reduction of false-positive results, without influencing the sensitivity. Although common for other tests in medicine, this phenomenon is novel for MRI in the early detection of RA.

Clinical factors, anticitrullinated peptide antibodies and MRI-detected subclinical inflammation in relation to progression from clinically suspect arthralgia to arthritis.

INTRODUCTION: Patients with clinically suspect arthralgia (CSA) have, according to their rheumatologists, an increased risk of rheumatoid arthritis (RA), but their actual outcome is unexplored. This longitudinal study investigated (1) progression from CSA to clinically detectable arthritis and (2) associations of clinical factors, serological factors (among which are anticitrullinated peptide antibodies (ACPAs)) and MRI-detected subclinical inflammation with arthritis development. METHODS: 150 patients with CSA were followed for ≥6 months. At baseline, clinical and serological data were collected and unilateral 1.5 T-MRI of metacarpophalangeal (MCP), wrist and metatarsophalangeal (MTP) joints was made. MRI scoring was done according to the RA MRI scoring system. Subclinical MRI inflammation was defined based on MRI results of 193 symptom-free persons. RESULTS: During follow-up (median=75 weeks, IQR=41-106 weeks), 30 patients developed clinical arthritis; 87% did so <20 weeks after inclusion. In multivariable analyses, age, localisation of initial symptoms in small and large joints (compared with small joints only), C-reactive protein level, ACPA-positivity and subclinical MRI inflammation significantly associated with arthritis development; ACPA and MRI inflammation were most strongly associated (HR (95% CI) respectively, 6.43 (2.57 to 16.05) and 5.07 (1.77 to 14.50)). After 1-year follow-up, 31% of the patients with MRI inflammation and 71% of the ACPA-positive patients with MRI inflammation had progressed to arthritis. Forty-three per cent of the patients that developed arthritis within 1 year were ACPA-negative; 78% of them had subclinical MRI inflammation at baseline. When MRI inflammation was absent arthritis development was infrequent (6% in all patients with CSA and 3% in ACPA-negative patients with CSA). CONCLUSIONS: Subclinical MRI inflammation precedes clinical arthritis with a few months. Subclinical MRI inflammation is, independent of other factors such as ACPA, associated with arthritis development.

Older age is associated with more MRI-detected inflammation in hand and foot joints.

OBJECTIVES: Although MRI is recommended for diagnostic use in detecting joint inflammation, its value in clinical practice has not been settled. Older symptom-free persons show more MRI-detected inflammation in their hands and feet. Within arthritis patients, a similar effect could be present (a general age effect). The association of age with MRI inflammation could also be enhanced by disease (disease-dependent age effect). Because both effects could have diagnostic consequences, we evaluated the association between age-at-onset and MRI-detected inflammation in early arthritis and RA. METHODS: Unilateral contrast-enhanced MRI of the MCP joint, wrist and MTP joints was performed in 589 newly presenting early arthritis patients, of whom 229 had RA. Bone marrow oedema, synovitis and tenosynovitis were summed, yielding the MRI inflammation score. MRI findings were associated with age and compared with those of 193 (previously reported) symptom-free controls. RESULTS: Early arthritis and RA-patients had, respectively, 2.6 (95% CI: 2.3, 3.0, P < 0.001) and 3.7 times (95% CI: 3.2, 4.3, P < 0.001) higher MRI inflammation scores than controls (adjusted for age). At higher age of onset, early arthritis and RA patients had higher MRI inflammation scores (1.03/year, P < 0.001). A similar effect was observed in controls (1.03/year, P < 0.001). The interaction term age*group (arthritis/RA vs controls) was non-significant (P = 0.80 and P = 0.23), suggesting that the age effect was not disease dependent. At the joint level, older RA patients had more extended MRI inflammation, but the preferential locations were similar. CONCLUSION: Older age is associated with more MRI-detected inflammation, and the effect was similar in arthritis and controls. This age effect should be considered when interpreting hand and foot MRI for diagnostic purposes.

How do general practitioners identify inflammatory arthritis? A cohort analysis of Dutch general practitioner electronic medical records.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the symptoms, signs and additional investigations that general practitioners (GPs) used in the process of diagnosing recent-onset inflammatory arthritis. Here, we assumed that the recorded information was crucial in the diagnostic process of arthritis. METHODS: A database including electronic medical records of 16 Dutch general practices with 44,350 patients was studied. Patients with an episode of RA and allied conditions according to the International Classification of Primary Care-1 code L88 (here summarized as inflammatory arthritis) in the period 2009-2013 were selected. Frequencies of symptoms, signs and performed additional investigations were evaluated and compared between referred and non-referred patients. RESULTS: A total of 126 patients were diagnosed with inflammatory arthritis. Information on symptom duration, symptom location, swelling, loss of function, redness and warmth were recorded in, respectively, 64, 90, 80, 52, 48 and 41% of patients. Information on morning stiffness, family history or the squeeze-test was provided in 20, 18 and 17% of patients. Symmetry, inflammatory type arthralgia and fist closure were not recorded. Acute phase reactants and auto-antibody tests were performed in 40-46% and 8-11%, respectively. Eighty-four patients (67%) were referred to secondary care. Symptoms located in the foot, morning stiffness, family history, myalgia, absence of redness and elevated acute phase reactants were associated with referral (all P < 0.05). CONCLUSION: GPs mainly used classical signs of inflammation to diagnose inflammatory arthritis. Other items that are regularly assessed in secondary care (morning stiffness, squeeze-test, family history) were infrequently recorded by GPs.

Magnetic resonance imaging-detected inflammation is associated with functional disability in early arthritis-results of a cross-sectional study.

OBJECTIVES: MRI sensitively detects inflammation, but the clinical relevance of MRI-detected inflammation is undetermined in early arthritis. Therefore, the aim of this cross-sectional study was to investigate the association between MRI-detected inflammation of hands and feet and functional disability in early arthritis. METHODS: Five hundred and fourteen early arthritis patients, consecutively included in the Leiden Early Arthritis Clinic, were studied. At baseline a unilateral 1.5 T MRI of the wrist, MCP and MTP joints was performed and functional disability was measured using the HAQ. MRIs were scored for tenosynovitis, synovitis and bone marrow oedema (BME) by two readers. The sum of these types of MRI-detected inflammation yielded the total MRI-inflammation score. Linear and nonlinear regression analyses were performed with HAQ as outcome. RESULTS: The total MRI-inflammation score was associated with the HAQ score (ß = 0.014, P < 0.001), as were tenosynovitis (ß = 0.046, P < 0.001), synovitis (ß = 0.039, P < 0.001) and bone marrow oedema scores (ß = 0.015, P < 0.001) separately. Analysing these three types of MRI-detected inflammation in one multivariable model revealed that only tenosynovitis was independently associated with the HAQ score (ß = 0.039, P < 0.001). Also after correction for age, gender, joint counts, CRP and auto-antibodies, this association remained significant (ß = 0.034, P < 0.001). MRI-detected inflammation at wrists or MCP joints associated significantly with impairments in hand functioning (e.g. difficulties with opening milk cartons or jars). Exploring the relation between MRI-detected inflammation and HAQ scores showed no evidence of a floor effect, suggesting that even low scores of MRI-detected inflammation are functionally relevant. CONCLUSION: MRI-detected inflammation, and tenosynovitis in particular, is associated with functional disability. This demonstrates the functional relevance of MRI-detected inflammation in early arthritis.

Autoantibodies to two novel peptides in seronegative and early rheumatoid arthritis.

OBJECTIVES: Despite recent progress in biomarker discovery for RA diagnostics, still over one-third of RA patients-and even more in early disease-present without RF or ACPA. The aim of this study was to confirm the presence of previously identified autoantibodies to novel Hasselt University (UH) peptides in early and seronegative RA. METHODS: Screening for antibodies against novel UH peptides UH-RA.1, UH-RA.9, UH-RA.14 and UH-RA.21, was performed in two large independent cohorts. Peptide ELISAs were developed to screen for the presence of antibodies to UH-RA peptides. First, 292 RA patients (including 39 early patients), 90 rheumatic and 97 healthy controls from UH were studied. Antibody reactivity to two peptides (UH-RA.1 and UH-RA.21) was also evaluated in 600 RA patients, 309 patients with undifferentiated arthritis and 157 rheumatic controls from the Leiden Early Arthritis Clinic cohort. RESULTS: In both cohorts, 38% of RA patients were seronegative for RF and ACPA. Testing for autoantibodies to UH-RA.1 and UH-RA.21 reduced the serological gap from 38% to 29% in the UH cohort (P = 0.03) and from 38% to 32% in the Leiden Early Arthritis Clinic cohort (P = 0.01). Furthermore, 19-33% of early RA patients carried antibodies to these peptides. Specificities in rheumatic controls ranged from 82 to 96%. Whereas antibodies against UH-RA.1 were related to remission, anti-UH-RA.21 antibodies were associated with inflammation, joint erosion and higher tender and swollen joint counts. CONCLUSION: This study validates the presence of antibody reactivity to novel UH-RA peptides in seronegative and early RA. This might reinforce current diagnostics and improve early diagnosis and intervention in RA.

Predicting the severity of joint damage in rheumatoid arthritis; the contribution of genetic factors.

BACKGROUND: The severity of radiologic progression is variable between rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients. Recently, several genetic severity variants have been identified and were replicated, these belong to 12 loci. This study determined the contribution of the identified genetic factors to the explained variance in radiologic progression and whether genetic factors, in addition to traditional risk factors, improve the accuracy of predicting the severity of radiologic progression. METHODS: 426 early RA patients with yearly radiologic follow-up were studied. The main outcome measure was the progression in Sharp-van der Heijde score (SHS) over 6 years, assessed as continuous outcome or categorised in no/little, moderate or severe progression. Assessed were improved fit of a linear mixed model analysis on serial radiographs, R(2) using linear regression analyses, C-statistic and the net proportion of patients that was additionally correctly classified when adding genetic risk factors to a model consisting of traditional risk factors. RESULTS: The genetic factors together explained 12-18%. When added to a model including traditional factors and treatment effects, the genetic factors additionally explained 3-7% of the variance (p value R(2)change=0.056). The percentage of patients that was correctly classified increased from 56% to 62%; the net proportion of correct reclassifications 6% (95% CI 3 to 10%). The C-statistic increased from 0.78 to 0.82. Sensitivity analyses using imputation of missing radiographs yielded comparable results. CONCLUSIONS: Genetic risk factors together explained 12-18% of the variance in radiologic progression. Adding genetic factors improved the predictive accuracy, but 38% of the patients were still incorrectly classified, limiting the value for use in clinical practice.

Characterising arthralgia in the preclinical phase of rheumatoid arthritis using MRI.

BACKGROUND: The phase of arthralgia is the earliest moment to clinically recognize patients who may develop Rheumatoid Arthritis (RA). Previous imaging studies in the arthralgia phase have shown that inflammation precedes RA development. It is unknown which symptoms/characteristics relate to subclinical joint inflammation as measured by MRI. Among all patients with arthralgia, those with clinically suspect arthralgia (CSA) are suspected to progress to arthritis according to the clinical judgement of their rheumatologists. We determined the symptoms/characteristics of patients with CSA who had inflammation on MRI. METHODS: 102 patients with CSA and without clinical arthritis were included. They completed questionnaires, underwent joint counts and unilateral 1.5 T MRI of MCP joints 2-4, wrist and MTP joints 1-5. Synovitis, bone marrow oedema (BME) and tenosynovitis were scored according to the OMERACT rheumatoid arthritis MRI scoring system. Symptoms and signs were related to MRI inflammation (based on MRI scores in symptom-free controls; a sum of synovitis, BME and tenosynovitis scores ≥3 was considered positive). Whether certain clinical characteristics frequently occurred together with MRI inflammation was studied by partial least squares analysis. RESULTS: MRI was performed in 93 patients with CSA, 44% of whom had subclinical MRI inflammation. Synovitis was the most prevalent inflammatory feature on MRI (20%). Patients with MRI inflammation were older and were more frequently positive for anti-citrullinated peptide antibodies than patients without MRI inflammation (p<0.001 and 0.049). In PLS analysis, including 16 clinical and serological characteristics as independent variables and MRI inflammation as dependent variable, no clear clusters of patients with and without MRI inflammation were identified. CONCLUSIONS: Subclinical inflammation as measured by MRI is present in 44% of patients with CSA. A combination of symptoms/characteristics incompletely differentiated patients with and without MRI inflammation.

Evaluating processes underlying the predictive value of baseline erosions for future radiological damage in early rheumatoid arthritis.

OBJECTIVES: Baseline erosions are characteristic for rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and predictive for a severe disease course. The mechanisms leading to baseline erosions being a strong predictor for radiological progression are unknown. We aimed to increase this understanding by mediation analyses in an observational cohort and a cross-sectional MRI study. METHODS: 3256 hands and feet radiographs of 653 early RA patients assessed during 7 years of disease were scored using the Sharp-van der Heijde method. Mediation models and multivariate regression analyses were used to explore the association between baseline erosions, other predictors and radiological damage over time. 603 joints (MCP2-5 and MTP1-5) of 67 RA patients underwent 1.5 T MRI at baseline. Data on MRI inflammation were compared with clinical inflammation and baseline radiological erosions. RESULTS: Patients with baseline erosions had, at any point in time during 7 years, 3.45 times more joint damage than patients without erosions (p<0.001, 95% CI 3.00 to 3.98). Baseline erosions were an independent predictor and not a mediator between symptom duration, systemic or local clinical inflammation (erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR), swollen joint count (SJC)) or autoantibodies (anti-citrullinated-peptide antibodies, rheumatoid factor) and radiological damage. Subclinical MRI inflammation was studied in relation to erosions, revealing that 83% of the non-swollen joints with baseline erosions had subclinical MRI inflammation compared with 25% of the non-swollen joints without baseline erosions (OR 15.2 95% CI 3.1 to 102.1). The association between MRI inflammation and baseline erosions was independent of symptom duration, ESR, SJC and autoantibodies. CONCLUSIONS: Baseline erosions are a predictor for future joint damage, independent of known predictors as time, autoantibodies or clinical measurable inflammation. Subclinical inflammation is suggested as an underlying mechanism.

SPP1 rs9138 variant contributes to the severity of radiological damage in anti-citrullinated protein autoantibody-negative rheumatoid arthritis.

OBJECTIVE: We recently reported an association of the SPP1 rs9138 and rs11439060 functional variants with the risk of rheumatoid arthritis (RA), the association being greater in anti-citrullinated protein autoantibody (ACPA)-negative patients. We hypothesised that SPP1 may contribute to the severity of joint destruction in RA, specifically in the ACPA-negative population. METHODS: Patients with RA in the ESPOIR cohort underwent genotyping for SPP1 rs9138 and rs11439060. Radiographs of the hands and feet were obtained at the first visit and at 1- and 2-year follow-up. Association analyses were performed by ACPA status. A replication study of the relevant subset of the Leiden Early Arthritis Clinic (EAC) cohort was performed. RESULTS: In the ESPOIR cohort (652 patients), rs9138 was significantly associated with radiological progression of joint destruction at 2 years, the association being restricted to 358 ACPA-negative patients (p=0.034). In the replication study with the Leiden EAC cohort (273 ACPA-negative patients), rs4754, which is in complete linkage disequilibrium with rs9138, was significantly associated with joint damage progression in ACPA-negative patients at 2- and 7-year follow-up (p=0.019 and p=0.005, respectively). Combined analysis of the two cohorts revealed a 0.95-fold rate of joint destruction per year per minor allele (p=0.022). CONCLUSIONS: The SPP1 rs9138 variant contributes to joint damage progression in ACPA-negative RA.

When does obesity exert its effect in conferring risk of developing RA: a large study in cohorts of symptomatic persons at risk.

OBJECTIVES: Obesity is a known risk factor for developing rheumatoid arthritis (RA). However, it is unclear whether obesity exerts its risk effect during the asymptomatic or the symptomatic clinically suspect arthralgia (CSA) phase of risk. To improve understanding of the effect of obesity on RA development, we aimed to (1) compare body mass index (BMI) at CSA onset to BMI of the general population and (2) study within CSA patients if obesity increases the risk for progression to RA. METHODS: 1107 symptomatic persons at risk for RA from four cohorts (CSA Leiden, CSA Rotterdam, SONAR and TREAT EARLIER placebo arm) were studied. For the first aim, baseline BMI was compared with age-matched/sex-matched BMI of the general population. Patients were stratified for anticitrullinated protein antibody (ACPA) status. Regarding the second aim, the association between BMI and inflammatory arthritis (IA) development during 2 years was studied with Cox regression analysis within each cohort and via meta-analysis in all cohorts. RESULTS: CSA patients of all cohorts were more often obese than the general population (respectively 21.9% vs 14.0%, 25.7% vs 14.5%, 26.7% vs 14.5% and 33.3% vs 14.9%, in CSA Leiden, CSA Rotterdam, SONAR, TREAT EARLIER placebo arm). Both ACPA-positive and ACPA-negative CSA patients had a higher frequency of obesity. Within CSA, obesity was not associated with IA development compared to normal weight (pooled effect in meta-analysis of four cohorts HR 1.01 (95% CI 0.93 to 1.08)). CONCLUSIONS: Obesity is not associated with RA development within CSA patients but BMI has already increased in CSA compared to the general population. Obesity, therefore, presumably exerts its risk effect at an early asymptomatic phase of RA development, rather than being associated with the disease processes that ultimately result in clinical arthritis.

Rheumatoid arthritis prevention in arthralgia: fantasy or reality?

The concept of a 'window of opportunity' in treating a disease assumes the existence of a time frame during which the trajectory of the disease can be effectively and permanently modified. In rheumatoid arthritis (RA), optimal timing of this period is presumed to be during the phase before arthritis is clinically apparent and disease is diagnosed. Several proof-of-concept trials of treatment during the 'arthralgia' phase of RA have been completed in the past 4 years, with the underlying notion that temporary treatment at this stage could prevent the development of RA or induce a sustained reduction in the burden of disease. This Review summarizes the results of these trials and reflects on the outcomes in relation to the patients' perspectives. Overall, the majority of symptomatic at-risk individuals could benefit from a fixed period treatment, even if RA does not develop. Various factors must be taken into consideration when translating these findings into clinical practice. More evidence is needed to target the individuals at highest risk, and additional tools are needed to monitor treatment and guide decisions about whether treatment can be discontinued. Without these tools, there is a paradoxical risk of seemingly increasing the incidence of the disease and prolonging disease duration, which is the opposite of what the concept of intervening in the window of opportunity entails.

The Natural Sequence in Which Subclinical Inflamed Joint Tissues Subside or Progress to Rheumatoid Arthritis: A Study of Serial MRIs in the TREAT EARLIER Trial.

OBJECTIVE: The natural trajectory of clinical arthritis progression at the tissue level remains elusive. We hypothesized that subclinical inflammation in different joint tissues (synovitis, tenosynovitis, osteitis) increases in a distinct temporal order in patients with clinically suspect arthralgia (CSA) who develop rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and subsides in a different sequence when CSA spontaneously resolves. METHODS: We studied 185 serial magnetic resonance images (MRIs) from CSA patients with subclinical joint inflammation from the placebo arm of the TREAT EARLIER trial: 52 MRIs from 21 RA progressors (MRIs conducted at 1 year before, at 4 months before, and upon RA development), and 133 MRIs from 35 patients with spontaneous resolution of pain (MRIs conducted at baseline and at 4, 12, and 24 months). MRIs were scored for osteitis, synovitis, and tenosynovitis. We used cross-lagged models to evaluate 2 types of time patterns between pairs of inflamed tissues: a simultaneous pattern (coinciding changes) and a subsequent pattern (inflammatory changes in 1 tissue preceding changes in another tissue). RESULTS: In patients who developed RA, synovitis, tenosynovitis, and osteitis increased simultaneously. Increasing osteitis occurred in the final 4 months before RA diagnosis, following incremental tenosynovitis and synovitis changes during the 1 year to 4 months before diagnosis (P < 0.01). In anti-citrullinated protein antibody (ACPA)-positive and ACPA-negative patients who progressed to RA, osteitis increased just before RA development. In patients with pain resolution, simultaneous decreases in synovitis, tenosynovitis, and osteitis occurred, with tenosynovitis decreasing in the first 4 months after CSA onset preceding decreasing synovitis and osteitis during 4-12 months (P = 0.02 and P < 0.01). CONCLUSION: We identified natural sequences of subclinical inflammation in different joint tissues, which deepens our understanding of clinical arthritis and RA development. During RA progression, increasing osteitis followed previous increases in tenosynovitis and synovitis. During pain resolution, tenosynovitis decreased first, followed by decreasing synovitis and osteitis.