Indirect reciprocity with abductive reasoning.

Indirect reciprocity is a reputational mechanism through which cooperative behavior can be promoted amongst a group of individuals. However, in order for this mechanism to effectively do so, cheating must be appropriately punished and cooperating appropriately rewarded. Errors in assessments and actions can hinder this process. In such a setting, individuals might try to reason about evidence to assign reputations given the possibility of errors. Here, we consider a well-established theory of reasoning used to combine evidence, abductive reasoning, as a possible means by which such errors can be circumvented. Specifically, we use Dempster-Shafer theory to model individuals who account for possible errors by combining information about their beliefs about the status of the population and the errors rates and then choose the simplest scenario that could explain their observations in the context of these beliefs. We investigate the effectiveness of abductive reasoning at promoting cooperation for five social norms: Scoring, Shunning, Simple Standing, Staying, and Stern Judging. We find that, generally, abductive reasoning can outperform non-reasoning models at ameliorating the effects of the aforementioned challenges and promote higher levels of cooperation under low-error conditions. However, for high-error conditions, we find that abductive reasoning can undermine cooperation. Furthermore, we also find that a degree of bias towards believing previously held reputations can help sustain cooperation.

Identifying and Exploring the Cognitive Nature of Threshold Concepts in Pharmacology to Improve Medical Students' Learning.

Phenomenon: Pharmacology is a fundamental healthcare discipline, but it can be difficult and counterintuitive for learners to learn. Navigation toward understanding pharmacology can be troublesome, but once the threshold to comprehension is crossed, learners can experience a transformative shift in their ways of thinking and practicing. We conducted an in-depth examination of threshold concepts within pharmacology, aiming to identify and prioritize their learning to improve the medical curriculum and enhance medical treatment and patient safety. Approach: We carried out a consensus generation process using the Nominal Group Technique (NGT) to identify potential threshold concepts in pharmacology. Participant groups of pharmacology experts and medical students considered, identified, reviewed, and ranked potential pharmacology threshold concepts within their own group. Then, using a logical, step-by-step approach, we combined the final ranked data from these multiple NGT sessions. We further analyzed these data using an abductive analysis approach; data were coded, categorized, reorganized, and conceptually mapped after critical evaluation. Conceptual themes were established corresponding to different phases of cognitive schema development. Findings: Six comprehensive conceptual themes were identified: Drug Mechanism of Action; Pharmacotherapeutics; Pharmacokinetics; Drug Receptor Interactions; Drug Terminology and Nomenclature; and Signaling Pathways. These concepts align with many of the key attributes of threshold concepts (e.g., troublesome, integrative and transformative). The cognitive schematic themes generated were (i) acquisition-troublesome; (ii) acquisition-transformative; (iii) automation-troublesome; (iv) automation-transformative. Insights: Transformative learning involves different stages of cognitive schema evolution, including acquisition, elaboration, and automation, and is influenced by both the inherent challenges of the concepts and limitations of human cognition. The high interactivity of these troublesome concepts challenge schema acquisition and automation. Troublesome concepts underpinning procedures or skills, while not easily explained by cognitive rules, can lead to slow, awkward, error-prone performance, creating additional barriers for practice. Integrating concepts into a coherent structure leads to the irreversible assimilation of knowledge and the transferability of both knowledge and skills, influencing learners' epistemological transitions and ontological transformations at theoretical and professional levels. Further work on designing instructional models around assisting and automating schemas around identified troublesome knowledge, while addressing the impact of cognitive load, has the potential to promote transformational learning.

Phylogenetic Inference and the Misplaced Premise of Substitution Rates.

Three competing 'methods' have been endorsed for inferring phylogenetic hypotheses: parsimony, likelihood, and Bayesianism. The latter two have been claimed superior because they take into account rates of sequence substitution. Can rates of substitution be justified on its own accord in inferences of explanatory hypotheses? Answering this question requires addressing four issues: (1) the aim of scientific inquiry, (2) the nature of why-questions, (3) explanatory hypotheses as answers to why-questions, and (4) acknowledging that neither parsimony, likelihood, nor Bayesianism are inferential actions leading to explanatory hypotheses. The aim of scientific inquiry is to acquire causal understanding of effects. Observation statements of organismal characters lead to implicit or explicit why-questions. Those questions, conveyed in data matrices, assume the truth of observation statements, which is contrary to subsequently invoking substitution rates within inferences to phylogenetic hypotheses. Inferences of explanatory hypotheses are abductive in form, such that some version of an evolutionary theory(ies) is/are included or implied. If rates of sequence evolution are to be considered, it must be done prior to, rather than within abduction, which requires renaming those putatively-shared nucleotides subject to substitution rates. There are, however, no epistemic grounds for renaming characters to accommodate rates, calling into question the legitimacy of causally accounting for sequence data.

Theorizing Factors Mediating With the Implementation of a Patient Feedback on Safety Intervention Implemented in the Primary Care Setting.

Developing safety interventions using patient feedback is valuable for creating safer systems of health care. A qualitative process evaluation of a patient feedback on safety intervention was undertaken in six primary care practices. The purpose was to theorize factors mediating with the implementation of the intervention using existing theories. The intervention required practices to obtain patient feedback on safety using a validated tool and respond using quality improvement methods. Multiple methods of qualitative data collection were used, including interviews and overt observation. Abductive reasoning informed the iterative process of analysis that examined theories relevant to the intervention and setting. A theoretical framework was developed, which encompassed mediating factors grouped under three concepts: practice readiness, utilization of problem-solving skills, and agency. Theorizing mediating factors was necessary to understand the complexities of primary care practices, and to identify the essential components for implementation of the intervention on a larger scale.

Abductive reasoning in nursing: Challenges and possibilities.

Abduction, deduction and induction are different forms of inference in science. However, only a few attempts have been made to introduce the idea of abductive reasoning as an extended way of thinking about clinical practice in nursing research. The aim of this paper was to encourage critical reflections about abductive reasoning based on three empirical examples from nursing research and includes three research questions on what abductive reasoning is, how the process has taken place, and how knowledge about abductive reasoning based on the examples can inform nursing research and clinical practice. The study has a descriptive and explorative approach using a convenience sample of three empirical studies from nursing research. The three studies illustrate different ways to enter the abductive reasoning process in steps. They represent new caring models, which offer visual and cognitive maps for expanding nursing research, education and thus informing care. Therefore, we suggest that abductive reasoning may be beneficial for different ways of knowing and demonstrates scientific innovation to shed new light on health phenomena, which can help researchers and practitioners to gain a broader and deeper understanding of nursing care inquiry. However, more studies are needed to broaden this scope.

A software architecture for mechanism-based social systems modelling in agent-based simulation models.

This paper introduces the MBSSM (Mechanism-Based Social Systems Modelling) software architecture that is designed for expressing mechanisms of social theories with individual behaviour components in a unified way and implementing these mechanisms in an agent-based simulation model. The MBSSM architecture is based on a middle-range theory approach most recently expounded by analytical sociology and is designed in the object-oriented programming paradigm with Unified Modelling Language diagrams. This paper presents two worked examples of using the architecture for modelling individual behaviour mechanisms that give rise to the dynamics of population-level alcohol use: a single-theory model of norm theory and a multi-theory model that combines norm theory with role theory. The MBSSM architecture provides a computational environment within which theories based on social mechanisms can be represented, compared, and integrated. The architecture plays a fundamental enabling role within a wider simulation model-based framework of abductive reasoning in which families of theories are tested for their ability to explain concrete social phenomena.

Sequence Data, Phylogenetic Inference, and Implications of Downward Causation.

Framing systematics as a field consistent with scientific inquiry entails that inferences of phylogenetic hypotheses have the goal of producing accounts of past causal events that explain differentially shared characters among organisms. Linking observations of characters to inferences occurs by way of why-questions implied by data matrices. Because of their form, why-questions require the use of common-cause theories. Such theories in phylogenetic inferences include natural selection and genetic drift. Selection or drift can explain 'morphological' characters but selection cannot be causally applied to sequences since fitness differences cannot be directly associated with individual nucleotides or amino acids. The relation of selection to sequence data is by way of downward or top-down causation from those phenotypes upon which selection occurs. The application of phylogenetic inference to explain sequence data is thus restricted to instances where drift is the relevant theory; those nucleotides or amino acids that can be explained via downward causation are precluded from inclusion in the data matrix. The restrictions on the inclusion of sequence data in phylogenetic inferences equally apply to species hypotheses, precluding the more restrictive approach known as DNA barcoding. Not being able to discern drift and selection as relevant causal mechanisms can severely constrain the inclusion and explanations of sequence data. Implications of such exclusion are discussed in relation to the requirement of total evidence.

A concept analysis of abductive reasoning.

AIM: To describe an analysis of the concept of abductive reasoning. BACKGROUND: In the discipline of nursing, abductive reasoning has received only philosophical attention and remains a vague concept. In addition to deductive and inductive reasoning, abductive reasoning is not recognized even in prominent nursing knowledge development literature. Therefore, what abductive reasoning is and how it can inform nursing practice and education was explored. DESIGN: Concept analysis. DATA SOURCES: Combinations of specific keywords were searched in Web of Science, CINAHL, PsychINFO, PubMed, Medline and EMBASE. The analysis was conducted in June 2012 and only literature before this period was included. No time limits were set. METHODS: Rodger's evolutionary method for conducting concept analysis was used. RESULTS: Twelve records were included in the analysis. The most common surrogate term was retroduction, whereas related terms included intuition and pattern and similarity recognition. Antecedents consisted of a complex, puzzling situation and a clinician with creativity, experience and knowledge. Consequences included the formation of broad hypotheses that enhance understanding of care situations. Overall, abductive reasoning was described as the process of hypothesis or theory generation and evaluation. It was also viewed as inference to the best explanation. CONCLUSION: As a new approach, abductive reasoning could enhance reasoning abilities of novice clinicians. It can not only incorporate various ways of knowing but also its holistic approach to learning appears to be promising in problem-based learning. As nursing literature on abductive reasoning is predominantly philosophical, practical consequences of abductive reasoning warrant further research.

An exercise in scientific problem-solving: Illustrating the utility of the principles of the Sydney Declaration.

In forensic science, scientific problem-solving is characterized by the recognition of traces as part of iterative reasoning processes to assign meaning to those traces in order to interpret and reconstruct events. Through a set of fundamental principles, the Sydney Declaration presents a foundation of forensic science through the lens of a scientist. The distinction between a scientist and a technician may require clarification-where a prototypical technician follows a prescribed set of 'standard operating procedures' and may be limited in the interpretation of the resultant data, the scientist utilizes knowledge, skills, experience and imagination to identify the issue at hand and develop lines of inquiry for testing and interpretation. This case report draws on the Sydney Declaration in order to highlight the importance of learning about events from careful consideration of both obvious and less obvious traces. A case involving the assault of a police officer is examined to illustrate the use of the Principles: the problem originally defined by investigators at the scene and later by prosecutors resulted in incorrect analysis and interpretation of traces, hampering efforts at an accurate reconstruction of events. This exercise serves to demonstrate that in order to engage in scientific problem-solving, it is necessary to apply observation and reasoning in forensic investigations in order to yield an outcome that can be clearly articulated. The overarching goal is to support the drive to improve forensic science practice, education, and research through a case illustrating the value of the principles of the Sydney Declaration.

Stochastic surprisal: An inferential measurement of free energy in neural networks.

This paper conjectures and validates a framework that allows for action during inference in supervised neural networks. Supervised neural networks are constructed with the objective to maximize their performance metric in any given task. This is done by reducing free energy and its associated surprisal during training. However, the bottom-up inference nature of supervised networks is a passive process that renders them fallible to noise. In this paper, we provide a thorough background of supervised neural networks, both generative and discriminative, and discuss their functionality from the perspective of free energy principle. We then provide a framework for introducing action during inference. We introduce a new measurement called stochastic surprisal that is a function of the network, the input, and any possible action. This action can be any one of the outputs that the neural network has learnt, thereby lending stochasticity to the measurement. Stochastic surprisal is validated on two applications: Image Quality Assessment and Recognition under noisy conditions. We show that, while noise characteristics are ignored to make robust recognition, they are analyzed to estimate image quality scores. We apply stochastic surprisal on two applications, three datasets, and as a plug-in on 12 networks. In all, it provides a statistically significant increase among all measures. We conclude by discussing the implications of the proposed stochastic surprisal in other areas of cognitive psychology including expectancy-mismatch and abductive reasoning.

From da Vinci's Flying Machines to a Theory of the Creative Process.

Steps involved in the creative process have been described in previous research, yet the exact nature of the process still remains unclear. In the current study, we take this investigation further, referring to two flying machines developed by Leonardo da Vinci and his other notes. Nine iterative steps are described with a focus on motivation and cognition: (a) vision and curiosity; (b) social recognition; (c) asking questions; (d) analogical thinking; (e) trial and error; (f) abductive reasoning; (g) incubation and forgetting; (h) overinclusive thinking, latent inhibition, and illumination; and (i) schema elaboration. The influence of da Vinci's socio-historic context is also briefly discussed. The analyses show how general psychological mechanisms can explain extraordinary acts of creativity. The steps discussed can be further formalized in future research to advance the modeling of creativity.

Who's who in Magelona: phylogenetic hypotheses under Magelonidae Cunningham & Ramage, 1888 (Annelida: Polychaeta).

Known as shovel head worms, members of Magelonidae comprise a group of polychaetes readily recognised by the uniquely shaped, dorso-ventrally flattened prostomium and paired ventro-laterally inserted papillated palps. The present study is the first published account of inferences of phylogenetic hypotheses within Magelonidae. Members of 72 species of Magelona and two species of Octomagelona were included, with outgroups including members of one species of Chaetopteridae and four of Spionidae. The phylogenetic inferences were performed to causally account for 176 characters distributed among 79 subjects, and produced 2,417,600 cladograms, each with 404 steps. A formal definition of Magelonidae is provided, represented by a composite phylogenetic hypothesis explaining seven synapomorphies: shovel-shaped prostomium, prostomial ridges, absence of nuchal organs, ventral insertion of palps and their papillation, presence of a burrowing organ, and unique body regionation. Octomagelona is synonymised with Magelona due to the latter being paraphyletic relative to the former. The consequence is that Magelonidae is monotypic, such that Magelona cannot be formally defined as associated with any phylogenetic hypotheses. As such, the latter name is an empirically empty placeholder, but because of the binomial name requirement mandated by the International Code of Zoological Nomenclature, the definition is identical to that of Magelonidae. Several key features for future descriptions are suggested: prostomial dimensions, presence/absence of prostomial horns, morphology of anterior lamellae, presence/absence of specialised chaetae, and lateral abdominal pouches. Additionally, great care must be taken to fully describe and illustrate all thoracic chaetigers in descriptions.

Tracing current explanations in memory: A process analysis based on eye-tracking.

Sequential abductive reasoning is the process of finding the best explanation for a set of observations. Explanations can be multicausal and require the retrieval of previously found ones from memory. The theory of abductive reasoning (TAR) allows detailed predictions on what information is stored and retrieved from memory during reasoning. In the research to date, however, these predictions have never been directly tested. In this study, we tested process assumptions such as the construction of a mental representation from TAR using memory indexing, an eye-tracking method that makes it possible to trace the retrieval of explanations currently held in working memory. Gaze analysis revealed that participants encode the presented evidence (i.e., observations) together with possible explanations into memory. When new observations are presented, the previously presented evidence and explanations are retrieved. Observations that are not explained immediately are encoded as abstractly explained. Abstract explanations enter a refinement process in which they become concrete before they enter the situation model. With the memory indexing method, we were able to assess the process of information retrieval in abductive reasoning, which was previously believed to be unobservable. We discuss the results in the light of TAR and other current theories on the diagnostic reasoning process.

Why Research Design and Methods Is So Crucial to Understanding Drug Use/Abuse: Introduction to the Special Issue.

The collection of articles in this special issue both raise the bar and inspire new thinking with regard to both design and methodology concerns that influence drug use/abuse research. Thematically speaking, the articles focus on issues related to missing data, response formats, strategies for data harmonization, propensity scoring methods as an alternative to randomized control trials, integrative data analysis, statistical corrections to reduce bias from attrition, challenges faced from conducting large-scale evaluations, and employing abductive theory of method as an alternative to the more traditional hypothetico-deductive reasoning. Collectively, these issues are of paramount importance as they provide specific means to improve our investigative tools and refine the logical framework we employ to examine the problem of drug use/abuse. Each of the authors addresses a specific challenge outlining how it affects our current research efforts and then outlines remedies that can advance the field. To their credit, they have included issues that affect both etiology and prevention, thus broadening our horizons as we learn more about developmental processes causally related to drug use/abuse and intervention strategies that can mitigate developmental vulnerability. This is the essential dialogue required to advance our intellectual tool kit and improve the research skills we bring to bear on the important questions facing the field of drug use/abuse. Ultimately, the goal is to increase our ability to identify the causes and consequences of drug use/abuse and find ways to ameliorate these problems as we engage the public health agenda.

Motivated explanation.

Although motivation is a well-established field of study in its own right, and has been fruitfully studied in connection with attribution theory and belief formation under the heading of "motivated thinking," its powerful and pervasive influence on specifically explanatory processes is less well explored. Where one has a strong motivation to understand some event correctly, one is thereby motivated to adhere as best one can to normative or "epistemic" criteria for correct or accurate explanation, even if one does not consciously formulate or apply such criteria. By contrast, many of our motivations to explain introduce bias into the processes involved in generating, evaluating, or giving explanations. Non-epistemic explanatory motivations, or following Kunda's usage, "directional" motivations, include self-justification, resolution of cognitive dissonance, deliberate deception, teaching, and many more. Some of these motivations lead to the relaxation or violation of epistemic norms; others enhance epistemic motivation, so that one engages in more careful and thorough generational and evaluative processes. We propose that "real life" explanatory processes are often constrained by multiple goals, epistemic and directional, where these goals may mutually reinforce one another or may conflict, and where our explanations emerge as a matter of weighing and satisfying those goals. We review emerging evidence from psychology and neuroscience to support this framework and to elucidate the central role of motivation in human thought and explanation.

Euclides da Cunha e a psicopatologia: um indício para abdução / Euclides da Cunha y la psicopatología: un indicio para abducción / Euclides da Cunha et la psychopathologie: un indice d'abduction / Euclides da Cunha and psychopathology: indications of abductive reasoning

Este ensaio é um exercício de metodologia indiciária (Carlos Ginzburg), no qual a abdução tem papel relevante. O foco é Euclides da Cunha, um dos mais famosos intelectuais brasileiros, autor de Os sertões, 1902. No campo da psicopatologia fundamental, destaca-se a obsessão de Euclides pela autonomia individual e uma certa dificuldade para mapear seus desejos.

Este trabajo es un ejercicio de metodología indiciaria (Carlos Ginzburg) en el cual la abducción tiene un papel relevante. El foco es Euclides da Cunha, uno de los más prestigiados intelectuales brasileños, autor de Os sertões, 1902. En el campo de la psicopatología fundamental, se destaca la obsesión de Euclides por la autonomía individual y una cierta dificultad para mapear sus deseos.

Ce travail est un exercice de méthode indiciaire (Carlos Ginzburg), dans lequel l'abduction joue un rôle central. Il porte sur Euclides da Cunha, important intellectuel brésilien, qui a écrit Os sertões, en 1902. Dans le champ de la psychopathologie fondamental, la discussion porte sur l'obsession d'Euclides pour l'autonomie individuelle et sur une certaine difficulté de cartographier ses désirs.

This essay is an exercise on the methodology of the indiciary paradigm (Carlos Ginzburg), where evidence and abductive reasoning are essential. The main subject of discussion is Euclides da Cunha, one of Brazil's most famous intellectuals and author of Rebellion in the Backlands (1902). In the field of fundamental psychopathology, the specifc theme here is Da Cunha's obsession with individual autonomy and a certain difficulty in mapping his own desires.