The U-shaped association between remnant cholesterol and risk of all-cause and cardiovascular deaths in diabetic adults: Findings from NHANES 1999-2018.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: We aimed to explore the association between remnant cholesterol (RC) level and risks of all-cause and cardiovascular deaths among American diabetic adults. METHODS AND RESULTS: The data of 4,095 diabetic participants from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (1999-2018) were included for analysis. Deaths were ascertained till December 31, 2019. RC level associated with death was assessed on a continuous scale with restricted cubic splines and by pre-defined quartile groups with Cox regression analysis. After a median follow-up of 6.9 years, 1,060 all-cause and 289 cardiovascular deaths occurred. Association between RC and death was U-shaped, and RC level correlated with the lowest risks of both all-cause and cardiovascular deaths was 0.85 mmol/L. After adjusting for confounders, compared with Quartile 3 (0.66-0.93 mmol/L), hazard ratios for all-cause deaths were 1.43 (95%CI 1.18-1.72, P = 0.0002) in Quartile 1 (≤0.47 mmol/L), 1.20 (95%CI 1.00-1.44, P = 0.05) in Quartile 2 (0.47-0.66 mmol/L), and 1.25 (95%CI 1.05-1.49, P = 0.02) in Quartile 4 (>0.93 mmol/L). Higher risk was also observed for cardiovascular deaths in Quartile 1 (HR 1.66, 95%CI 1.15-2.41, P = 0.007), Quartile 2 (HR 1.39, 95%CI 0.97-2.00, P = 0.08), and Quartile 4 (HR 1.54, 95% CI 1.08-2.19, P = 0.02), as compared with Quartile 3. CONCLUSION: In US adults with diabetes, low and high levels of RC were associated with increased risks of all-cause and cardiovascular deaths, and the lowest risk was observed at RC level of 0.85 mmol/L. These findings suggested that maintaining appropriate RC level may help reduce risk of death in diabetic patients.

Predictive value of cholinesterase in patients with heart failure: A new blood biochemical marker of undernutrition.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: This study was conducted to verify whether serum cholinesterase (ChE) is useful in predicting prognosis and discriminating undernutrition status compared to existing low-nutrition indices of blood chemical tests in patients with heart failure (HF). METHODS AND RESULTS: A total of 1617 patients (1204 older patients) with HF who evaluated ChE during hospitalization were recruited for this study. The primary outcome was all-cause death, and multivariate survival analysis was performed. We drew a receiver operating characteristic curve for all-cause death, some undernutrition status, such as low body mass index, thin mid-upper arm circumference, low grip strength, and slow gait speed. The area under the curve was used to compare the predictive ability of ChE with some existing nutritional parameters, such as blood biochemical tests, controlling nutritional status (CONUT), and the geriatric nutritional risk index (GNRI). After adjusting for 29 variables, higher ChE significantly decreased the risk of all-cause death (per 10 increase, hazard ratio: 0.975, 95% confidence interval: 0.952-0.998), and this trend was maintained for older patients (per 10 increase, hazard ratio: 0.972, 95% confidence interval: 0.947-0.997). ChE was moderately correlated with CONUT and GNRI, but the predictive ability for all-cause death was higher for ChE relative to both scores. ChE tended to have an almost consistently high predictive ability compared with other blood biochemical tests. CONCLUSIONS: ChE was associated with all-cause death and an almost consistently higher predictive ability for all-cause death and undernutrition status in comparison to existing blood chemical tests and nutritional scores.

Excess All-Cause Deaths during Coronavirus Disease Pandemic, Japan, January-May 20201.

To provide insight into the mortality burden of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Japan, we estimated the excess all-cause deaths for each week during the pandemic, January-May 2020, by prefecture and age group. We applied quasi-Poisson regression models to vital statistics data. Excess deaths were expressed as the range of differences between the observed and expected number of all-cause deaths and the 95% upper bound of the 1-sided prediction interval. A total of 208-4,322 all-cause excess deaths at the national level indicated a 0.03%-0.72% excess in the observed number of deaths. Prefecture and age structure consistency between the reported COVID-19 deaths and our estimates was weak, suggesting the need to use cause-specific analyses to distinguish between direct and indirect consequences of COVID-19.

Estimating All-Cause Deaths Averted in the First Two Years of the COVID-19 Vaccination Campaign in Italy.

Comparing deaths averted by vaccination campaigns is a crucial public health endeavour. Excess all-cause deaths better reflect the impact of the pandemic than COVID-19 deaths. We used a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average with exogenous factors model to regress daily all-cause deaths on annual trend, seasonality, and environmental temperature in three Italian regions (Lombardy, Marche and Sicily) from 2015 to 2019. The model was used to forecast excess deaths during the vaccinal period (December 2020-October 2022). We used the prevented fraction to estimate excess deaths observed during the vaccinal campaigns, those which would have occurred without vaccination, and those averted by the campaigns. At the end of the vaccinal period, the Lombardy region proceeded with a more intensive COVID-19 vaccination campaign than other regions (on average, 1.82 doses per resident, versus 1.67 and 1.56 in Marche and Sicily, respectively). A higher prevented fraction of all-cause deaths was consistently found in Lombardy (65% avoided deaths, as opposed to 60% and 58% in Marche and Sicily). Nevertheless, because of a lower excess mortality rate found in Lombardy compared to Marche and Sicily (12, 24 and 23 per 10,000 person-years, respectively), a lower rate of averted deaths was observed (22 avoided deaths per 10,000 person-years, versus 36 and 32 in Marche and Sicily). In Lombardy, early and full implementation of adult COVID-19 vaccination was associated with the largest reduction in all-cause deaths compared to Marche and Sicily.

Cross-Sectional and Longitudinal Associations Between the Serum G\lobulin Level, and Renal Impairment and All-Cause Deaths in Chinese Patients With Newly Diagnosed Multiple Myeloma.

Background: A large number of studies have shown that serum globulin plays an important role in a variety of cancers; However, few studies have identified the association between serum globulin levels and end-stage renal disease (ESRD) and all-cause death in Chinese patients with multiple myeloma (MM). Methods: A generalized additive model and smooth curve fitting were fitted to assess the cross-sectional relationship between the serum globulin levels and renal impairment (RI) at baseline. Multivariate-adjusted Cox regression models were performed to determine the associations between the baseline serum globulin levels and the onset of all-cause death and ESRD in patients with MM. Results: 288 participants who were followed for > 3 months were eligible for the retrospective study. The median serum globulin level was 5.1 ± 2.6 mg/dL. The average follow-up time was 23.3 months. Thirty-two patients (11.5%) had ESRD and 24 patients (8.33%) died after diagnosis. In patients with a serum globulin level < 6.1 mg/dL, the serum globulin level had an independent, negative correlation with the occurrence of MM-related RI. Patients were divided into three groups on the basis of serum globulin tertiles: low (L group), 3.3 mg/dL; middle (M group), 3.3-6.0 mg/dL; and high (H group), 6.0 mg/dL. Cox regression analysis showed that low serum globulin levels may be independent risk factors for all-cause death and the occurrence of ESRD in patients with MM; however, an elevated baseline serum globulin can predict all-cause deaths in patients with MM, but cannot predict the onset of ESRD. Conclusions: This observational study suggested that there was a non-linear relationship between the serum globulin level and the occurrence of RI in patients with MM. This finding showed that the serum globulin level had a U-shaped association with all-cause death and an L-shaped association with ESRD in patients with MM.

All-cause versus cause-specific excess deaths for estimating influenza-associated mortality in Denmark, Spain, and the United States.

BACKGROUND: Seasonal influenza-associated excess mortality estimates can be timely and provide useful information on the severity of an epidemic. This methodology can be leveraged during an emergency response or pandemic. METHOD: For Denmark, Spain, and the United States, we estimated age-stratified excess mortality for (i) all-cause, (ii) respiratory and circulatory, (iii) circulatory, (iv) respiratory, and (v) pneumonia, and influenza causes of death for the 2015/2016 and 2016/2017 influenza seasons. We quantified differences between the countries and seasonal excess mortality estimates and the death categories. We used a time-series linear regression model accounting for time and seasonal trends using mortality data from 2010 through 2017. RESULTS: The respective periods of weekly excess mortality for all-cause and cause-specific deaths were similar in their chronological patterns. Seasonal all-cause excess mortality rates for the 2015/2016 and 2016/2017 influenza seasons were 4.7 (3.3-6.1) and 14.3 (13.0-15.6) per 100,000 population, for the United States; 20.3 (15.8-25.0) and 24.0 (19.3-28.7) per 100,000 population for Denmark; and 22.9 (18.9-26.9) and 52.9 (49.1-56.8) per 100,000 population for Spain. Seasonal respiratory and circulatory excess mortality estimates were two to three times lower than the all-cause estimates. DISCUSSION: We observed fewer influenza-associated deaths when we examined cause-specific death categories compared with all-cause deaths and observed the same trends in peaks in deaths with all death causes. Because all-cause deaths are more available, these models can be used to monitor virus activity in near real time. This approach may contribute to the development of timely mortality monitoring systems during public health emergencies.

Cardiovascular Outcomes of Patients Referred to Home Based Cardiac Rehabilitation.

BACKGROUND: Home Based Cardiac Rehabilitation (HBCR) has been considered a reasonable alternative to Center-based Cardiac Rehabilitation (CBCR) in patients with established cardiovascular disease, especially in the midst of COVID-19 pandemic. However, the long-term cardiovascular outcomes of patients referred to HBCR remains unknown. OBJECTIVES: To compare outcomes of patients who were referred and attended HBCR vs patients referred but did not attend HBCR (Non-HBCR). METHODS: We performed a retrospective study of 269 patients referred to HBCR at Providence Veterans Affairs Medical Center (PVAMC). From November 2017 to March 2020, 427 patients were eligible and referred for Cardiac Rehabilitation (CR) at PVAMC. Of total patients, 158 patients were referred to CBCR and 269 patients to HBCR based on patient and/or clinician preference. The analysis of outcomes was focused on HBCR patients. We compared outcomes of patients who were referred and attended HBCR vs patients referred but did not attend HBCR (Non-HBCR) from 3 to 12 months of the referral date. HBCR consisted of face-to-face entry exam with exercise prescription, weekly phone calls for education and exercise monitoring, with adjustments where applicable, for 12-weeks and an exit exam. Primary outcome was composite of all-cause mortality and hospitalizations. Secondary outcomes were all-cause hospitalization, all-cause mortality and cardiovascular hospitalizations, separately. We used cox proportional methods to calculate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% CI. We adjusted for imbalanced characteristics at baseline: smoking, left ventricular ejection fraction and CABG status. RESULTS: A total of 269 patients (mean age: 72, 98% Male) were referred to HBCR, however, only 157 (58%) patients attended HBCR. The primary outcome occurred in 30 patients (19.1%) in the HBCR group and 30 patients (30%) in the Non-HBCR group (adjusted HR=0.56, CI 0.33-0.95, P=.03). All-cause mortality occurred in 6.4% of patients in the HBCR group and 13% patients in the Non-HBCR group 3 to 12 months after HBCR referral (adjusted HR=0.43, CI 0.18-1.0, P= .05). There was no difference in cardiovascular hospitalizations (HBCR: 5.7% vs Non-HBCR: 10%, adjusted HR 0.57, CI 0.22-1.4, P= .23) or all cause hospitalizations at 3 to 12 months between the groups (HBCR: 12.7% vs Non-HBCR: 21%, adjusted HR 0.53, CI 0.28-1.01, P= .05). CONCLUSION: Completion of HBCR among referred patients was associated with a lower risk of the combined all-cause mortality and all-cause hospitalizations up to 12 months. Based on the outcomes, HBCR is a reasonable option that can improve access to CR for patients who are not candidates of or cannot attend CBCR. Randomized-controlled studies are needed to confirm these findings.

Precipitating factors and clinical impact of early rehospitalization for heart failure in patients with heart failure in Awaji Island, Japan.

BACKGROUND: Recent reports have revealed that patients who experienced early rehospitalization for heart failure (HF) had worse prognoses in terms of all-cause and cardiovascular deaths as compared to those who did not. However, precipitating factors for early rehospitalization for HF remain unknown. In this study, we assessed the precipitating factors for early rehospitalization and their impact in patients with HF. METHODS AND RESULTS: We consecutively included 242 patients (mean age: 80.4 years, females: 46.3%) with a history of rehospitalization for HF. They were divided into 2 groups: the early rehospitalization group (71 patients who were readmitted within 3 months of discharge) and the late rehospitalization group (171 patients who were readmitted after more than 3 months following discharge). During the mean follow-up period of 1,144 days (range: 857-1,417 days), 121 patients (50.0%) died. Kaplan-Meier analysis revealed that patients in the early rehospitalization group had worse prognosis (all-cause death and cardiovascular death) than those in the late rehospitalization group (log-rank p<0.001). As the major precipitating factor for rehospitalization, poor compliance with the doctor's instructions on fluid and physical activity restrictions (determined by the patients or their families admittance of non-compliance with the instructions given at the time of discharge) was higher in the early rehospitalization group than in the late rehospitalization group [poor compliance with fluid restriction: 19.7% vs. 7.6% (p = 0.006), poor compliance with physical activity restriction: 21.1% vs. 9.4% (p = 0.013)]. CONCLUSIONS: We concluded that early hospital readmission in patients with HF was associated with higher mortality rates. Compared to late rehospitalization, precipitating factors for early rehospitalization were more strongly dependent on the self-care behaviors of the patients. A more effective approach, such as multidisciplinary intervention, is essential to prevent early hospital readmission and subsequent poor prognosis.

Cardiovascular and other causes of death as a function of lifestyle habits in a quasi extinct middle-aged male population. A 50-year follow-up study.

OBJECTIVES: To relate major causes of death with lifestyle habits in an almost extinct male middle-aged population. MATERIAL AND METHODS: A 40-59 aged male population of 1712 subjects was examined and followed-up for 50 years. Baseline smoking habits, working physical activity and dietary habits were related to 50 years mortality subdivided into 12 simple and 3 composite causes of death by Cox proportional hazard models. Duration of survival was related to the same characteristics by a multiple linear regression model. RESULTS: Death rate in 50 years was of 97.5%. Out of 12 simple groups of causes of death, 6 were related to smoking habits, 3 to physical activity and 4 to dietary habits. Among composite groups of causes of death, hazard ratios (and their 95% confidence limits) of never smokers versus smokers were 0.68 (0.57-0.81) for major cardiovascular diseases; 0.65 (0.52-0.81) for all cancers; and 0.72 (0.64-0.81) for all-cause deaths. Hazard ratios of vigorous physical activity at work versus sedentary physical activity were 0.63 (0.49-0.80) for major cardiovascular diseases; 1.01 (0.72-1.41) for all cancers; and 0.76 (0.64-0.90) for all-cause deaths. Hazard ratios of Mediterranean Diet versus non-Mediterranean Diet were 0.68 (0.54-0.86) for major cardiovascular diseases; 0.54 (0.40-0.73) for all cancers; and 0.67 (0.57-0.78) for all-cause deaths. Expectancy of life was 12 years longer for men with the 3 best behaviors than for those with the 3 worst behaviors. CONCLUSIONS: Some lifestyle habits are strongly related to lifetime mortality.