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We study the effect of economic conditions early in life on the occurrence of type-2 diabetes in adulthood using contextual economic indicators and within-sibling pair variation. We use data from Lifelines: a longitudinal cohort study and biobank including 51,270 siblings born in the Netherlands from 1950 onward. Sibling fixed-effects account for selective fertility. To identify type-2 diabetes we use biomarkers on the hemoglobin A1c concentration and fasting glucose in the blood. We find that adverse economic conditions around birth increase the probability of type-2 diabetes later in life both in males and in females. Inference based on self-reported diabetes leads to biased results, incorrectly suggesting the absence of an effect. The same applies to inference that does not account for selective fertility.
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Biomarcadores , Glicemia , Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 2 , Hemoglobinas Glicadas , Irmãos , Humanos , Masculino , Feminino , Estudos Longitudinais , Biomarcadores/sangue , Países Baixos , Hemoglobinas Glicadas/análise , Glicemia/análise , Adulto , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Fatores SocioeconômicosRESUMO
The obesity epidemic is a growing concern in the United States. Aside from the detrimental health effects of obesity, previous work has also documented a negative relationship between obesity and various labor market outcomes. Given that the American adult obesity rate is roughly 40%, obesity affects a large portion of the US labor market. In this study, I analyze the impact of obesity on income and employment over business cycle fluctuations. I find that during economic downturns, obese workers experience larger declines in income and employment relative to their healthy weight peers. These effects exist for both genders and are concentrated amongst younger adults.
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Emprego , Renda , Adulto , Humanos , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia , Feminino , Masculino , Obesidade/epidemiologia , Nível de Saúde , Fatores SocioeconômicosRESUMO
We study whether the onset of the COVID-19 crisis affected the program choices of high school applicants in Sweden. Our analysis exploits the fact that the admission process consists of two stages: a preliminary round in which applicants initially rank programs in order of preference and a final round in which they can alter their preliminary rankings. In 2020, the timing of the two rounds happened to provide a unique pre- and post-crisis snapshot of applicants' field-of-study choices. Using school-level data on applicants' top-ranked programs for all admission rounds between 2016 and 2020, we implement a difference-in-differences method to identify the immediate effect of the crisis on demand for programs. We find no change in demand for academic programs, but a decline in top-ranked applications to some of the vocational programs. The declines are most pronounced and robust for programs related to the Accommodation and Food Services sector, which was the most adversely affected industry during the crisis. This finding suggests that labor market considerations influence the study choices made by relatively young students.
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Using the measures proposed by Mink et al. (2012), we reexamine the coherence of business cycles in the euro area using a long sample period. We also analyze the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on business cycle coherence and examine whether our measures for business cycle coherence indicate a core versus periphery within EMU. Our results suggest that business cycle coherence did not increase monotonically. The COVID-19 pandemic made that the signs of the output gaps of euro area countries became more similar, but we find large differences in the amplitude of the output gaps across countries.
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This study seeks to identify the determinants of forced household savings in 16 European Union (EU) member states in 2020. We show that the higher the severity of the COVID-19 pandemic in the state, measured by the intensity of government restrictions or the number of COVID-19-related deaths, the higher the level of forced savings. Such savings also increased with gross domestic product per capita and the financial support provided for households and enterprises by the government. Additionally, savings cultures and personality traits that support compliance with pandemic-related restrictions and enhance coping with the hardship of the pandemic had a positive impact on forced savings. Our results show that while common pandemic shock may lead to discrepancies in forced savings in affected countries, their level depends largely on government response in the form of imposed restrictions as well as financial support for households and enterprises. Therefore, strong fiscal support during the pandemic can be likened to sowing the seeds for post-pandemic recovery, as savings accumulated during the pandemic shock may be used to finance the pent-up demand. This, in turn, suggests that fiscal responses during the pandemic may act as a significant driver of post-pandemic business cycle (de)synchronization and inflation differentials among EU member states and, more importantly, euro-area countries.
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We study the relationship between macroeconomic conditions and health in the United States using data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System between 2004 and 2017. Unlike many existing studies that use state or county as the level of aggregation, our analysis uses a sample of metropolitan and micropolitan statistical areas. Our results suggest strong associations between worsening macroeconomic conditions and reduced access to care and health insurance coverage. While we do not detect any robust relationships between business cycles and health outcomes in the general population, we do find consistent evidence of worse self-reported health during economic downturns among minorities and less-educated individuals. In addition, there is some suggestive evidence of countercyclicality of healthier lifestyle choices. However, the findings for health behavior outcomes are not robust to adjusting for multiple hypothesis testing.
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Comportamentos Relacionados com a Saúde , Sistema de Vigilância de Fator de Risco Comportamental , Doença Crônica , Humanos , Autorrelato , Estados Unidos/epidemiologiaRESUMO
This work analyses the existence of asymmetric effects on the subjective well-being of the population of different countries in response to changes in the levels of aggregate income. Microdata from the Eurobarometer and the World Values Survey are used for the period 2000-2019. This period includes several economic changes, among which are the strong expansion at the beginning of the century, the Great Recession, and the subsequent recovery. Our study includes several groups of countries. In the broadest case, the study comprises a group of 83 countries and analyses the issue both from a global perspective as well as focusing particular attention on European countries. These asymmetric effects of economic activity are in line with behavioural economics and previous literature and allow us to determine a macroeconomic aversion to losses. The results obtained support the existence of asymmetric effects of changes in aggregate income on subjective well-being, and show that losses generated in recessions require a far more vigorous recovery if they are to be compensated for, and that they might even have permanent effects. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10902-021-00401-5.
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In order to build a strong and sustainable recovery post the COVID-19 pandemic, we need to draw important observations from the growth experience of the past. In this context, this paper uses a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model that takes into account persistent growth rate shocks to decompose the Indian GDP into potential output and output gap. Apart from analysing the trajectory of potential output-output gap, it also examines their underlying drivers. The results suggest that a combined deceleration in neutral and investment-specific technology growth post 2016, brought down the potential growth to around 6 per cent in 2020Q1. The output gap also witnessed a persistent decline since 2018Q1, primarily due to weak demand and a rise in investment adjustment costs reflecting heightened stress in the investment and financial sectors. A forecasting exercise is also undertaken which shows that the estimates of output gap from the model possess competing inflation forecasting ability compared to HP filtered output gap.
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This paper analyzes firms' episodes (spells) of high growth (HG) using a sample of Spanish manufacturing firms observed over two decades. The use of duration models allows us to investigate the following: (i) the probability of experiencing HG episodes, (ii) persistence in HG, and (iii) the determinants of the transitions in and out of the HG state and whether their impact varies over the business cycle. We find that about half of the firms experience at least one HG episode, but they seldom experience more than one. Moreover, high-growth status is rarely repeated due to high first-year selection. Yet, in subsequent years beyond the first one, the hazard rate from HG status falls substantially. These results suggest an "episodic" nature of HG and further allow us to identify two groups of firms characterized by the following: (i) (relatively) long HG spells and short no high-growth (NHG) spells and (ii) short HG spells and long NHG spells. In addition, some firm and market (demand) characteristics increase the probability of becoming an HG firm and enhancing HG persistence. Finally, during the downturn, the role of younger age and smaller size in explaining HG decreases. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11187-020-00443-8.
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This study investigates the relationship between the financial market and the real business cycle in the US from February 1987 to March 2016. Using different monthly time-series as proxies for the financial and macroeconomic cycles, we first specify the determinants and then build two indicators to measure the financial and real business cycles based on principal component analysis. We identify not only the main different cycles for each indicator but also measure the duration of the phases for each indicator. Second, we study the relationship between economic and financial indicators per cycle and per phase using a vector autoregressive model. Our findings show that the economic indicator is useful to forecast the financial, and that there exists a significant relationship between the financial and economic cycles that is actively stronger during the "expansion-growth" phase. This result enables investors and policymakers to better forecast the future dynamics of financial sector using the information provided by the analysis of the real business cycle.
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This study investigates the impact of both economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and business cycles on the fine wine market. We use a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model to measure the influence of these two variables on three major Liv-ex indices over the period 2005M01-2020M12. Our results are multiple. First, fine wine prices are relatively unaffected asymmetrically by EPU, while the economic cycle has a more pronounced asymmetric effect, especially in the short run. Second, uncertainty in Europe and the USA affect fine wine prices more than in China. Third, in the short term, fine wine prices react more strongly to changes in business cycles than to uncertainty. Finally, prices of the five first growths of Bordeaux are asymmetrically influenced by EPU, unlike of the rest of the most prestigious Bordeaux wines. The study also has implications for investment. We argue that a strong and professional strategic intelligence watch would help stakeholders in the secondary wine market to improve their returns, especially when European and US wines are involved. While short-runners should focus on information relative to changes in the business cycle, long-term investors would find it more interesting to closely monitor policy decisions liable to have long-term effects on wine prices (such as taxation, monetary measures ).
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This paper expands the analysis of the cyclical characteristics of social spending by providing information on its joint behaviour across OECD countries. With this aim we propose the use of dynamic factor analysis and recursive models to estimate synchronization and cyclicality of social policies within a broad perspective. By considering the synchronization of social spending it is possible to assess the short-run characteristics of the joint response to changes in the economic cycle. We find that synchronization of social spending was only possible for advanced economies, achieving the highest countercyclical stabilization effect during the Global Financial Crisis. Emerging market economies are not able to join the synchronized response, maintaining independent and, in most cases, procyclical stances in the behaviour of their social policies. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10663-022-09545-w.
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Monitoring business cycles faces two potentially conflicting objectives: accuracy and timeliness. To strike a balance between the dual objectives, we develop a Bayesian sequential quickest detection method to identify turning points in real time and propose a sequential stopping time as a solution. Using four monthly indexes of real economic activity in the US, we evaluate the method's real-time ability to date the past five recessions. The proposed method identifies similar turning point dates as the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), with no false alarms, but on average dates peaks 4 months faster and troughs 10 months faster relative to the NBER announcement. The timeliness of our method is also notable compared to the dynamic factor Markov-switching model - the average lead time is about 5 months in dating peaks and 2 months in dating troughs.
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This paper develops a threshold-augmented dynamic multi-country model (TGVAR) to quantify the macroeconomic effects of the Covid-19 pandemic. We show that there exist threshold effects in the relationship between output growth and excess global volatility at individual country levels in a significant majority of advanced economies and several emerging markets. We then estimate a more general multi-country model augmented with these threshold effects as well as long term interest rates, oil prices, exchange rates and equity returns to perform counterfactual analyses. We distinguish common global factors from trade-related spillovers, and identify the Covid-19 shock using GDP growth projection revisions of the IMF in 2020Q1. We account for sample uncertainty by bootstrapping the multi-country model estimated over four decades of quarterly observations. Our results show that, without policy support, the Covid-19 pandemic would cause a significant and long-lasting fall in world output, with outcomes that are quite heterogenous across countries and regions. While the impact on China and other emerging Asian economies are estimated to be less severe, the United Kingdom, and several other advanced economies may experience deeper and longer-lasting effects. Non-Asian emerging markets stand out for their vulnerability. We show that no country is immune to the economic fallout of the pandemic because of global interconnections as evidenced by the case of Sweden. We also find that long-term interest rates could temporarily fall below their pre-Covid-19 lows in core advanced economies, but this does not seem to be the case in emerging markets.
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This paper tests potential determinants of the development of the insurance sector. Using a rich dataset for 24 European countries spanning two decades, we identify a set of macrofinancial factors that are the most robust predictors of growth of gross premiums in the life and non-life insurance sectors. We show that both life and non-life premiums co-move with the business cycle and are positively related to higher savings and a more developed financial system. In addition, we provide new evidence on the role of market concentration and price effects. We find that market concentration matters only for life insurance, whereas the price channel is significant only for non-life insurance. From a policy perspective, our empirical estimates can be used to refine the existing macroprudential stress tests of the insurance sector.
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The impact of the financial crisis has been uneven-with differences across industries and occupations. Jobs linked to health care appear better insulated, with nurses specifically showing labor force gains during the recent recession. What is not known is how important public sector employment opportunities are for these national nursing trends. Observing the universe of nurses working for one of the largest (and publicly operated) health care employers, we show that worsening economic conditions lead to stronger job attachment. Relatedly, older nurses also seem more willing to delay retirement and instead transition to part-time positions during a downturn.
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Recessão Econômica , Emprego , Governo Federal , Enfermeiras e Enfermeiros , Bases de Dados Factuais , Humanos , Modelos Econométricos , Estados Unidos , United States Department of Veterans AffairsRESUMO
Refundable tax credits and food assistance are the largest transfer programs available to able-bodied working poor and near-poor families in the United States, and simultaneous participation in these programs has more than doubled since the early 2000s. To understand this growth, we construct a series of two-year panels from the 1981-2013 waves of the Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement to estimate the effect of state labor-market conditions, federal and state transfer program policy choices, and household demographics governing joint participation in food and refundable tax credit programs. Overall, changing policy drives much of the increase in the simultaneous, biennial use of food assistance and refundable tax credits. This stands in stark contrast from the factors accounting for the growth in food assistance alone, where cyclical and structural labor market factors account for at least one-half of the growth, and demographics play a more prominent role. Moreover, since 2000, the business cycle factors as the leading determinant in biennial participation decisions in food programs and refundable tax credits, suggesting a recent strengthening in the relationship between economic conditions and transfer programs.
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Família , Pobreza/estatística & dados numéricos , Assistência Pública/tendências , Adulto , Estudos Transversais , Feminino , Assistência Alimentar/tendências , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Política Pública , Características de Residência/estatística & dados numéricos , Salários e Benefícios/estatística & dados numéricos , Fatores Socioeconômicos , Impostos/tendências , Estados UnidosRESUMO
Over the period from 1989 to 2012, total mortality in South Korea shifted from being weakly procyclical or unrelated to the economy to strongly countercyclical in the early 2000s. Cancers played a significant role in changing the direction of the effects of unemployment on mortality. The overall pattern of the effects of macroeconomic conditions on mortality in South Korea roughly follows the corresponding changes observed in the United States. We have provided evidence that the sudden change in the relationship between economic conditions and mortality was driven by diseases with higher and rapidly rising treatment costs. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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Mortalidade/tendências , Desemprego , Adulto , Idoso , Bases de Dados Factuais , Feminino , Gastos em Saúde , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , República da Coreia , Adulto JovemRESUMO
This paper considers determinants of physical functional limitations in daily-life activities at high ages. Specifically, we quantify the extent to which the impact of adverse life events on this outcome is larger in case of exposure to adverse economic conditions early in life. Adverse life events include bereavement, severe illness in the family, and the onset of chronic diseases. We use a longitudinal data set of individuals born in the first decades of the 20th century. The business cycle around birth is used as an indicator of economic conditions early in life. We find that the extent to which functional limitations suffer from the onset of chronic diseases is larger if the individual was born in a recession. The long-run effect of economic conditions early in life on functional limitations at high ages runs primarily via this life event. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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Atividades Cotidianas , Envelhecimento , Doença Crônica , Recessão Econômica , Humanos , Estudos Longitudinais , Fatores SocioeconômicosRESUMO
In this article, we investigate the impact of job displacement on women's first-birth rates as well as the variation in this effect over the business cycle. We use mass layoffs to estimate the causal effects of involuntary job loss on fertility in the short and medium term, up to five years after displacement. Our analysis is based on rich administrative data from Germany, with an observation period spanning more than 20 years. We apply inverse probability weighting (IPW) to flexibly control for the observed differences between women who were and were not displaced. To account for the differences in the composition of the women who were displaced in a downturn and the women who were displaced in an upswing, we use a double weighting estimator. Results show that the extent to which job displacement has adverse effects on fertility depends on the business cycle. The first-birth rates were much lower for women who were displaced in an economic downturn than for those who lost a job in an economic upturn. This result cannot be explained by changes in the observed characteristics of the displaced women over the business cycle.