Enhancing pneumonia prognosis in the emergency department: a novel machine learning approach using complete blood count and differential leukocyte count combined with CURB-65 score.

BACKGROUND: Pneumonia poses a major global health challenge, necessitating accurate severity assessment tools. However, conventional scoring systems such as CURB-65 have inherent limitations. Machine learning (ML) offers a promising approach for prediction. We previously introduced the Blood Culture Prediction Index (BCPI) model, leveraging solely on complete blood count (CBC) and differential leukocyte count (DC), demonstrating its effectiveness in predicting bacteremia. Nevertheless, its potential in assessing pneumonia remains unexplored. Therefore, this study aims to compare the effectiveness of BCPI and CURB-65 in assessing pneumonia severity in an emergency department (ED) setting and develop an integrated ML model to enhance efficiency. METHODS: This retrospective study was conducted at a 3400-bed tertiary medical center in Taiwan. Data from 9,352 patients with pneumonia in the ED between 2019 and 2021 were analyzed in this study. We utilized the BCPI model, which was trained on CBC/DC data, and computed CURB-65 scores for each patient to compare their prognosis prediction capabilities. Subsequently, we developed a novel Cox regression model to predict in-hospital mortality, integrating the BCPI model and CURB-65 scores, aiming to assess whether this integration enhances predictive performance. RESULTS: The predictive performance of the BCPI model and CURB-65 score for the 30-day mortality rate in ED patients and the in-hospital mortality rate among admitted patients was comparable across all risk categories. However, the Cox regression model demonstrated an improved area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.713 than that of CURB-65 (0.668) for in-hospital mortality (p<0.001). In the lowest risk group (CURB-65=0), the Cox regression model outperformed CURB-65, with a significantly lower mortality rate (2.9% vs. 7.7%, p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The BCPI model, constructed using CBC/DC data and ML techniques, performs comparably to the widely utilized CURB-65 in predicting outcomes for patients with pneumonia in the ED. Furthermore, by integrating the CURB-65 score and BCPI model into a Cox regression model, we demonstrated improved prediction capabilities, particularly for low-risk patients. Given its simple parameters and easy training process, the Cox regression model may be a more effective prediction tool for classifying patients with pneumonia in the emergency room.

Value of integrated pulmonary index to predict exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary Disease's severity.

PURPOSE: In this study, we aimed to examine the correlation between current prognostic scores and the integrated pulmonary index (IPI) in patients admitted to the emergency department (ED) with exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and the diagnostic value of using the IPI in combination with other scores in determining patients who can be discharged safely. METHODS: This study was conducted as a multicenter and prospective observational study between August 2021 and June 2022. Patients diagnosed with COPD exacerbation (eCOPD) at the ED were included in the study and they were grouped according to the Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) classification. The CURB-65 (Confusion, Urea, Respiratory rate, Blood pressure, and age older than 65 years), BAP-65 (Blood urea nitrogen, Altered mental status, Pulse rate, and age older than 65 years), and DECAF (Dyspnea, Eosinopenia, Consolidation, Academia, and atrial Fibrillation) scores and IPI values of the patients were recorded. The correlation between the IPI and the other scores and its diagnostic value in detecting mild eCOPD were examined. The diagnostic value of CURB-IPI, a new score created by the combination of CURB-65 and IPI, in mild eCOPD was examined. RESULTS: The study was carried out with 110 patients (49 female and 61 male), mean age of 67 (min/max: 40/97). The IPI and CURB-65 had better predictive value in detecting mild exacerbations than DECAF and BAP-65 scores [Area under curves (AUC) were 0.893, 0.795, 0.735, 0.541 respectively]. The CURB-IPI score, on the other hand, had the best predictive value for detecting mild exacerbations (AUC 0.909). CONCLUSION: We found that the IPI has good predictive value in the detection of mild COPD exacerbations, and its predictive value increases when used in combination with CURB-65. We think that the CURB-IPI score can be a guide when deciding whether patients with exacerbation of COPD can be discharged.

Predicting mortality among patients with severe COVID-19 pneumonia based on admission vital sign indices: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pneumonia remains a major public health concern. Vital sign indices-shock index (SI; heart rate [HR]/systolic blood pressure [SBP]), shock index age (SIA, SI × age), MinPulse (MP; maximum HR-HR), Pulse max index (PMI; HR/maximum HR), and blood pressure-age index (BPAI; SBP/age)-are better predictors of mortality in patients with trauma compared to traditional vital signs. We hypothesized that these vital sign indices may serve as predictors of mortality in patients with severe COVID-19 pneumonia. This study aimed to describe the association between vital sign indices at admission and COVID-19 pneumonia mortality and to modify the CURB-65 with the best performing vital sign index to establish a new mortality prediction tool. METHODS: This retrospective study was conducted at a tertiary care center in southern Thailand. Adult patients diagnosed with COVID-19 pneumonia were enrolled in this study between January 2020 and July 2022. Patient demographic and clinical data on admission were collected from an electronic database. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUC) curve analysis was used to assess the predictive power of the resultant multivariable logistic regression model after univariate and multivariate analyses of variables with identified associations with in-hospital mortality. RESULTS: In total, 251 patients with COVID-19 pneumonia were enrolled in this study. The in-hospital mortality rate was 27.9%. Non-survivors had significantly higher HR, respiratory rate, SIA, and PMI and lower MP and BPAI than survivors. A cutoff value of 51 for SIA (AUC, 0.663; specificity, 80%) was used to predict mortality. When SIA was introduced as a modifier for the CURB-65 score, the new score (the CURSIA score) showed a higher AUC than the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II and CURB-65 scores (AUCs: 0.785, 0.780, and 0.774, respectively) without statistical significance. CONCLUSIONS: SIA and CURSIA scores were significantly associated with COVID-19 pneumonia mortality. These scores may contribute to better patient triage than traditional vital signs.

Evaluating the ability of the NLHA2 and artificial neural network models to predict COVID-19 severity, and comparing them with the four existing scoring systems.

To improve the identification and subsequent intervention of COVID-19 patients at risk for ICU admission, we constructed COVID-19 severity prediction models using logistic regression and artificial neural network (ANN) analysis and compared them with the four existing scoring systems (PSI, CURB-65, SMARTCOP, and MuLBSTA). In this prospective multi-center study, 296 patients with COVID-19 pneumonia were enrolled and split into the General-Ward-Care group (N = 238) and the ICU-Admission group (N = 58). The PSI model (AUC = 0.861) had the best results among the existing four scoring systems, followed by SMARTCOP (AUC = 0.770), motified-MuLBSTA (AUC = 0.761), and CURB-65 (AUC = 0.712). Data from 197 patients (training set) were analyzed for modeling. The beta coefficients from logistic regression were used to develop a severity prediction model and risk score calculator. The final model (NLHA2) included five covariates (consumes alcohol, neutrophil count, lymphocyte count, hemoglobin, and AKP). The NLHA2 model (training: AUC = 0.959; testing: AUC = 0.857) had similar results to the PSI model, but with fewer variable items. ANN analysis was used to build another complex model, which had higher accuracy (training: AUC = 1.000; testing: AUC = 0.907). Discrimination and calibration were further verified through bootstrapping (2000 replicates), Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit testing, and Brier score calculation. In conclusion, the PSI model is the best existing system for predicting ICU admission among COVID-19 patients, while two newly-designed models (NLHA2 and ANN) performed better than PSI, and will provide a new approach for the development of prognostic evaluation system in a novel respiratory viral epidemic.

[CURB-65 as a predictor of 30-day mortality in patients hospitalized with COVID-19 in Ecuador: COVID-EC study]. / CURB-65 como predictor de mortalidad a 30 días en pacientes hospitalizados con COVID-19 en Ecuador: estudio COVID-EC.

OBJECTIVE: This article aims to assess the utility of CURB-65 in predicting 30-day mortality in adult patients hospitalized with COVID-19. METHODS: This work is a cohort study conducted between March 1 and April 30, 2020 in Ecuador. RESULTS: A total of 247 patients were included (mean age 60 ± 14 years, 70% men, overall mortality 41.3%). Patients with CURB-65 ≥ 2 had a higher mortality rate (57 vs. 17%, p < .001) that was associated with other markers of risk: advanced age, hypertension, overweight/obesity, kidney failure, hypoxemia, requirement for mechanical ventilation, or onset of respiratory distress. CONCLUSIONS: CURB-65 ≥ 2 was associated with higher 30-day mortality on the univariate (Kaplan-Meier estimator) and multivariate (Cox regression) analysis.

Severity Scores in COVID-19 Pneumonia: a Multicenter, Retrospective, Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Identification of patients on admission to hospital with coronavirus infectious disease 2019 (COVID-19) pneumonia who can develop poor outcomes has not yet been comprehensively assessed. OBJECTIVE: To compare severity scores used for community-acquired pneumonia to identify high-risk patients with COVID-19 pneumonia. DESIGN: PSI, CURB-65, qSOFA, and MuLBSTA, a new score for viral pneumonia, were calculated on admission to hospital to identify high-risk patients for in-hospital mortality, admission to an intensive care unit (ICU), or use of mechanical ventilation. Area under receiver operating characteristics curve (AUROC), sensitivity, and specificity for each score were determined and AUROC was compared among them. PARTICIPANTS: Patients with COVID-19 pneumonia included in the SEMI-COVID-19 Network. KEY RESULTS: We examined 10,238 patients with COVID-19. Mean age of patients was 66.6 years and 57.9% were males. The most common comorbidities were as follows: hypertension (49.2%), diabetes (18.8%), and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (12.8%). Acute respiratory distress syndrome (34.7%) and acute kidney injury (13.9%) were the most common complications. In-hospital mortality was 20.9%. PSI and CURB-65 showed the highest AUROC (0.835 and 0.825, respectively). qSOFA and MuLBSTA had a lower AUROC (0.728 and 0.715, respectively). qSOFA was the most specific score (specificity 95.7%) albeit its sensitivity was only 26.2%. PSI had the highest sensitivity (84.1%) and a specificity of 72.2%. CONCLUSIONS: PSI and CURB-65, specific severity scores for pneumonia, were better than qSOFA and MuLBSTA at predicting mortality in patients with COVID-19 pneumonia. Additionally, qSOFA, the simplest score to perform, was the most specific albeit the least sensitive.

Clinical and laboratory findings and PCR results in severe and non-severe COVID19 patients based on CURB-65 and WHO severity indices.

BACKGROUND: The importance of clinicolaboratory characteristics of COVID-19 made us report our findings in the Alborz province according to the latest National Guideline for the diagnosis and treatment of COVID-19 in outpatients and inpatients (trial five versions, 25 March 2020) of Iran by emphasizing rRT-PCR results, clinical features, comorbidities, and other laboratory findings in patients according to the severity of the disease. METHODS: In this study, 202 patients were included, primarily of whom 164 had fulfilled the inclusion criteria. This cross-sectional, two-center study that involved 164 symptomatic adults hospitalized with the diagnosis of COVID-19 between March 5 and April 5, 2020, was performed to analyze the frequency of rRT-PCR results, distribution of comorbidities, and initial clinicolaboratory data in severe and non-severe cases, comparing the compatibility of two methods for categorizing the severity of the disease. RESULTS: According to our findings, 111 patients were rRT-PCR positive (67.6%), and 53 were rRT-PCR negative (32.4%), indicating no significant difference between severity groups that were not related to the date of symptoms' onset before admission. Based on the National Guideline, among vital signs and symptoms, mean oxygen saturation and frequency of nausea showed a significant difference between the two groups (P < 0.05); however, no significant difference was observed in comorbidities. In CURB-65 groups, among vital signs and comorbidities, mean oxygen saturation, diabetes, hypertension (HTN), hyperlipidemia, chronic heart disease (CHD), and asthma showed a significant difference between the two groups (P < 0.05), but no significant difference was seen in symptoms. CONCLUSION: In this study, rRT-PCR results of hospitalized patients with COVID-19 were not related to severity categories. From initial clinical characteristics, decreased oxygen saturation appears to be a more common abnormality in severe and non-severe categories. National Guideline indices seem to be more comprehensive to categorize patients in severity groups than CURB-65, and there was compatibility just in non-severe groups of National Guideline and CURB-65 categories.

Pneumonia scoring systems for severe COVID-19: which one is better.

PURPOSE: To investigate the predictive significance of different pneumonia scoring systems in clinical severity and mortality risk of patients with severe novel coronavirus pneumonia. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A total of 53 cases of severe novel coronavirus pneumonia were confirmed. The APACHE II, MuLBSTA and CURB-65 scores of different treatment methods were calculated, and the predictive power of each score on clinical respiratory support treatment and mortality risk was compared. RESULTS: The APACHE II score showed the largest area under ROC curve in both noninvasive and invasive respiratory support treatment assessments, which is significantly different from that of CURB-65. Further, the MuLBSTA score had the largest area under ROC curve in terms of death risk assessment, which is also significantly different from that of CURB-65; however, no difference was noted with the APACHE II score. CONCLUSION: For patients with COVID, the APACHE II score is an effective predictor of the disease severity and mortality risk. Further, the MuLBSTA score is a good predictor only in terms of mortality risk.

Clinical Features of the 60 Years and Older Patients Infected with 2019 Novel Coronavirus: Can We Predict Mortality Earlier?

INTRODUCTION: The novel coronavirus (COVID-19), which has affected over 100 countries in a short while, progresses more mortally in elderly patients with comorbidities. In this study, we examined the epidemiological, clinical, and laboratory characteristics of the patients aged 60 and over who had been infected with COVID-19. METHODS: The data of the patients admitted to the hospital within 1 month from May 8, 2020 onwards and hospitalized for COVID-19 pneumonia were obtained from the hospital medical records, and the epidemiological, clinical, and laboratory parameters of the patients during the admission to the emergency department were examined. Patients were divided into 2 groups regarding the criteria of having in-hospital mortality (mortality group) and being discharged with full recovery (survivor group). The factors, which could have an impact on the mortality, were investigated using a univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: This retrospective study included 113 patients aged 60 years and older, with a confirmed diagnosis of COVID-19 pneumonia. The mean age of the patients was 70.7 ± 7.9, and 64.6% (n = 73) of them were male. The mortality rate was 19.4% (n = 22). Among the comorbid illnesses, only renal failure was significant in the mortality group (p = 0.04). A CURB-65score ≥3 or pneumonia severity index (PSI) class ≥4 manifested a remarkable discrimination ability to predict 30-day mortality (p < 0.001). When the laboratory parameters were considered, the value of neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR) was significant in predicting mortality in univariate and multivariate analysis (odds ratio [OR] = 1.11; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 1.03-1.21; p = 0.006, and OR = 1.51; 95% CI, 1.11-2.39; p = 0.044, respectively). CONCLUSION: In our study, NLR was determined to be an independent marker to predict in-hospital mortality among patients with COVID-19. PSI and CURB-65 revealed a considerably precise prognostic accuracy for the patients with COVID-19 in our study as well. Moreover, thanks to that NLR results in a very short time, it can enable the clinician to predict mortality before the scoring systems are calculated and hasten the management of the patients in the chaotic environment of the emergency room.

Prediction of an increase in oxygen requirement of SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia using three different scoring systems.

INTRODUCTION: In patients with severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), respiratory failure is a major complication and its symptoms occur around one week after onset. The CURB-65, A-DROP and expanded CURB-65 tools are known to predict the risk of mortality in patients with community-acquired pneumonia. In this retrospective single-center retrospective study, we aimed to assess the correlations of the A-DROP, CURB-65, and expanded CURB-65 scores on admission with an increase in oxygen requirement in patients with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pneumonia. METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed 207 patients who were hospitalized with SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia at the Self-Defense Forces Central Hospital in Tokyo, Japan. Performance of A-DROP, CURB-65, and the expanded CURB-65 scores were validated. In addition, we assessed whether there were any associations between an increase in oxygen requirement and known risk factors for critical illness in COVID-19, including elevation of liver enzymes and C-reactive protein (CRP), lymphocytopenia, high D-dimer levels and the chest computed tomography (CT) score. RESULTS: The areas under the curve for the ability of CURB-65, A-DROP, and the expanded CURB-65 scores to predict an increase in oxygen requirement were 0.6961, 0.6980 and 0.8327, respectively, and the differences between the three groups were statistically significant (p < 0.001). Comorbid cardiovascular disease, lymphocytopenia, elevated CRP, liver enzyme and D-dimer levels, and higher chest CT score were significantly associated with an increase in oxygen requirement CONCLUSIONS: The expanded CURB-65 score can be a better predictor of an increase in oxygen requirement in patients with SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia.

Association of acute phase reactants with prognostic scores in community acquired pneumonia.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the association of C-reactive protein and procalcitonin with commonly used prognostic scoring systems, hospitalisation and mortality in cases of community-acquired pneumonia. METHODS: The prospective study was conducted from April 2014 to April 2015 at the emergency department of Marmara University Pendik Research and Training Hospital, Turkey, and comprised community-acquired pneumonia patients diagnosed according to the British Thoracic Society criteria. Prognosis was estimated using confusion, urea, respiratory rate, blood pressure and age >65, Pneumonia Severity Index-Pneumonia Patient Outcome Research Team score, and severe community-acquired pneumonia scores. Data was analysed using MedCalc 15.8. RESULTS: Of the 203 patients assessed, community-acquired pneumonia was confirmed in 152(74.8%). Procalcitonin had moderate correlation with the three scales used (p<0.001), while C-reactive protein had weak correlation with them (p<0.004). CONCLUSIONS: Both procalcitonin and C-reactive protein levels were found to be correlated with prognostic risk scores.

Prognostic utility of CURB-65 and E-CURB-65 scoring systems in healthcare associated pneumonia patients: Short- and long-term mortality.

BACKGROUND: The aim of our study is to evaluate whether the CURB-65 or expanded-CURB-65 score can be used in healthcare-associated pneumonia (HCAP) and subgroups of HCAP patients at the same efficiency. Thirty and 90-day mortality rates of the patients and predictive values of CURB-65 and E-CURB-65 scores were compared. PATIENTS AND METHODS: This is a retrospective study of patients who presented to the Emergency Department between January 2015 and January 2016. All patient charts above 18 years of age were evaluated according to American Thoracic Society and the Infectious Diseases Society of America (ATS/IDSA) pneumonia diagnostic criteria and pneumonia diagnoses were confirmed. RESULTS: 167 pneumonia patients (27.8%) of all pneumonia cases were grouped as HCAP and 433 (54.4%) were grouped as community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). 43% (n = 72) of HCAP patients were classified as nursing home-associated pneumonia (NHAP) and 57% (n = 95) were classified as HCAP (except NHAP) group. NHAP patients were older than the other groups. HCAP (except NHAP) group had somehow more comorbid diseases when compared with the other groups. However, the NHAP group had more unstable vital signs and confusion rates. Hospital and ICU admissions, 30-90-day mortality rates were all significantly higher in NHAP group E-CURB-65 was found to have better predictive values than CURB-65 for 30-day and 90-day mortalities overall. CONCLUSION: According to our results, commonly used scoring systems, CURB 65 and E-CURB 65, are not suitable for HCAP, NHAP, and HCAP (except NHAP) patients. NHAP patients have significant worse prognosis compared with CAP and HCAP (except NHAP) in terms of admission to intensive care and 30 and 90-day mortality rates.

Adrenocortical System Hormones in Non-Critically Ill COVID-19 Patients.

CONTEXT: The effects of COVID-19 on the adrenocortical system and its hormones are not well known. OBJECTIVES: We studied serum cortisol, serum adrenocorticotropic hormone (ACTH), and their ratio in hospitalized non-critically ill COVID-19 patients. DESIGN: A prospective case-control study. METHODS: The study participants were divided into 2 groups. Group 1 consisted of 74 COVID-19 patients. The second group consisted of 33 healthy persons. Early admission above hormones levels was determined and compared between the study groups. Besides that, COVID-19 patients were grouped according to their Glasgow Coma Score (GCS), CURB-65 score, and intensive care unit (ICU) requirement, and further sub-analyses were performed. RESULTS: There were no significant differences in the mean age or gender distribution in both groups. In the patients' group, the serum ACTH concentration was lower than in the healthy group (p<0.05). On the other hand, the serum cortisol levels and cortisol/ACTH ratio of the patients' group were significantly higher than of the healthy controls (p<0.05, all). Further analyses showed that, although serum cortisol and ACTH levels were not high, the cortisol/ACTH ratio was higher in COVID-19 patients with low GCS (<15) than patients with normal GCS (=15) (p<0.05). In COVID-19 in patients with different CURB-65 scores, the cortisol/ACTH ratio was significantly different (p<0.05), while serum cortisol and ACTH were not different in groups (p>0.05). Serum cortisol levels and cortisol/ACTH ratio were higher but ACTH level was lower in the ICU needed COVID-19 patients than in patients who do not need ICU (p<0.05). CONCLUSION: Our pilot study results showed that the cortisol/ACTH ratio would be more useful than serum cortisol and/or ACTH levels alone in evaluating the adrenocortical system of COVID-19 patients. Still, further detailed studies are needed to confirm these.

Incidence and Risk Factors of Acute Kidney Injury in Patients Hospitalized with Pneumonia: A Prospective Observational Study.

Background: Acute kidney injury (AKI) is frequent in hospitalized patients with critical illness and presents in up to one-quarter of patients with non-severe community-acquired pneumonia (CAP), resulting in increased short and long-term mortality. There is a paucity of literature from resource-limited settings regarding the incidence and risk factors for AKI in patients with CAP. In this study, we looked at the incidence and risk factors for AKI in patients hospitalized with CAP in a resource-limited setting Methods: This prospective observational study conducted over 1 year period included patients ≥ 18 years of age diagnosed with CAP admitted to a tertiary care center. The differences in baseline characteristics between hospitalized CAP patients with and without AKI; and risk factors for AKI and the need for renal replacement therapy (RRT) were analyzed using Chi-square test, t-test, Mann-Whitney U test, and logistic regression with p-value <0.05 considered statistically significant. Results: We observed 27.6 % (58/210) of patients had AKI in our study. Patients with AKI had significantly higher baseline comorbidities of chronic kidney disease (p=0.005) and coronary artery disease (p=0.032), and significantly higher uric acid (p=0.002), lower albumin (p=0.005), lower total protein (p=0.015), higher bilirubin (p=0.001), higher LDH (p=0.041), and higher CURB-65 score (p<0.001) in addition to elevated creatinine, BUN (p<0.001) compared to the no-AKI group. The patient group requiring RRT had significantly more males (p=0.019), with significantly higher phosphorus (p=0.038), lower ALT (p=0.022), and expectedly higher creatinine (p<0.001) and blood urea nitrogen (p=0.016). The adjusted logistic regression analysis revealed that patients with higher CURB-65 scores were at increased odds of undergoing RRT (OR 8.74, 95% CI 5.27 to 12.21, p=0.039). Conclusion: There is a high incidence of AKI in patients hospitalized for CAP in developing countries. Clinicians should be alert for the prevention and early detection of AKI in CAP patients.

CURB-65 may serve as a useful prognostic marker in COVID-19 patients within Wuhan, China: a retrospective cohort study.

A recently developed pneumonia caused by SARS-CoV-2 has quickly spread across the world. Unfortunately, a simplified risk score that could easily be used in primary care or general practice settings has not been developed. The objective of this study is to identify a simplified risk score that could easily be used to quickly triage severe COVID-19 patients. All severe and critical adult patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 on the West campus of Union Hospital, Wuhan, China, from 28 January 2020 to 29 February 2020 were included in this study. Clinical data and laboratory results were obtained. CURB-65 pneumonia score was calculated. Univariate logistic regressions were applied to explore risk factors associated with in-hospital death. We used the receiver operating characteristic curve and multivariate COX-PH model to analyse risk factors for in-hospital death. A total of 74 patients (31 died, 43 survived) were finally included in the study. We observed that compared with survivors, non-survivors were older and illustrated higher respiratory rate, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, D-dimer and lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), but lower SpO2 as well as impaired liver function, especially synthesis function. CURB-65 showed good performance for predicting in-hospital death (area under curve 0.81, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.71-0.91). CURB-65 ⩾ 2 may serve as a cut-off value for prediction of in-hospital death in severe patients with COVID-19 (sensitivity 68%, specificity 81%, F1 score 0.7). CURB-65 (hazard ratio (HR) 1.61; 95% CI 1.05-2.46), LDH (HR 1.003; 95% CI 1.001-1.004) and albumin (HR 0.9; 95% CI 0.81-1) were risk factors for in-hospital death in severe patients with COVID-19. Our study indicates CURB-65 may serve as a useful prognostic marker in COVID-19 patients, which could be used to quickly triage severe patients in primary care or general practice settings.

Risk for prolonged hospitalization and mortality in aged community acquired pneumonia patients: a retrospective study in Japan.

The present study aimed to reveal; i) risk for prolonged hospitalization and mortality in aged community acquired pneumonia patients, and ii) whether swallowing ability was related to re-hospitalization. The present retrospective study included 92 patients older than 75 years hospitalized with community acquired pneumonia in Takagi Hospital between April 2017 and March 2018. The patients were classified into 3 groups; discharged within 17 days (group I): hospitalized more than 18 days (group II): died during the hospitalization (group III). Swallowing ability was evaluated if available. Univariate analysis indicated males and body mass index (BMI) in group I (n = 24) were higher than group II (n = 46). Group III (n = 22) had low serum albumin, low BMI, and severe disease progression compared with group I. Multivariate analysis demonstrated that group II BMI was lower than group I [odds ratio (OR) = 1.18, p = 0.042]. Group III had lower serum albumin level compared with group I (OR = 81.01, p = 0.025). Diabetes mellitus (p = 0.009), but not swallowing disability, was risk for readmission. Malnutrition represented by low albumin enhanced mortality rate in the pneumonia patients, and low BMI and diabetes mellitus might increase the pneumonia risk.

Assessment and comparison of APACHE II (Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation), SOFA (Sequential Organ Failure Assessment) score and CURB 65 (Confusion; Urea; Respiratory Rate; Blood Pressure), for prediction of inpatient mortality in Acute Exacerbation of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease.

OBJECTIVE: To assess and compare the role of Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation, Sequential Organ Failure Assessment, and Confusion Urea Respiratory Rate Blood Pressure scores in predicting inpatient mortality for patients with Acute Exacerbation of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease.. DESIGN: The retrospective study was conducted at the Jinnah Post-graduate Medical Centre, Karachi, and comprised data of all consecutive Acute Exacerbation of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease patients from December 1, 2013, to December 31, 2014. Logistic regression model and non-parametric tests were employed using SPSS 22.. RESULTS: There were 95 patients whose medical records were studied. The overall mean age was 60.79±12.39 years. Mortality rate was of 26(27.6%). Median hospital stay was 11.5 days (interquartile range: 9-17 days) in survivors and 4 days (2-8 days) in non-survivors. Out of the three scales used, Confusion Urea Respiratory Rate Blood Pressure-65 score showed the greatest difference between survivors and non-survivors (p <0.05). Significant higher scores were observed in non survivors with Type 2 than Type 1 respiratory failure (p<0.05). There was significant association of mortality with baseline partial pressure of oxygen and oxygen saturation (p<0.05 each). CONCLUSIONS: Confusion Urea Respiratory Rate Blood Pressure-65score determined at the time of admission had significant ability to predict inpatient mortality..

CURB-65 Score is Equal to NEWS for Identifying Mortality Risk of Pneumonia Patients: An Observational Study.

IMPORTANCE: The CURB-65 score is widely implemented as a prediction tool for identifying patients with community-acquired pneumonia (cap) at increased risk of 30-day mortality. However, since most ingredients of CURB-65 are used as general prediction tools, it is likely that other prediction tools, e.g. the British National Early Warning Score (NEWS), could be as good as CURB-65 at predicting the fate of CAP patients. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether NEWS is better than CURB-65 at predicting 30-day mortality of CAP patients. DESIGN: This was a single-centre, 6-month observational study using patients' vital signs and demographic information registered upon admission, survival status extracted from the Danish Civil Registration System after discharge and blood test results extracted from a local database. SETTING: The study was conducted in the medical admission unit (MAU) at the Hospital of South West Jutland, a regional teaching hospital in Denmark. PARTICIPANTS: The participants consisted of 570 CAP patients, 291 female and 279 male, median age 74 (20-102) years. RESULTS: The CURB-65 score had a discriminatory power of 0.728 (0.667-0.789) and NEWS 0.710 (0.645-0.775), both with good calibration and no statistical significant difference. CONCLUSION: CURB-65 was not demonstrated to be significantly statistically better than NEWS at identifying CAP patients at risk of 30-day mortality.

Pneumonia Severity Assessment Tools for Predicting Mortality in Patients with Healthcare-Associated Pneumonia: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

BACKGROUND: In contrast to community-acquired pneumonia (CAP), no specific severity assessment tools have been developed for healthcare-associated pneumonia (HCAP) in clinical practice. OBJECTIVES: In this review, we assessed the clinical significance of severity assessment tools for HCAP. METHODS: We identified related articles from the PubMed database. The eligibility criteria were original research articles evaluating severity scoring tools and reporting the outcomes of mortality in patients with HCAP. RESULTS: Eight articles were included in the meta-analysis. The PORT score and CURB-65 were evaluated in 7 and 8 studies, respectively. Using cutoff values of ≥IV and V for the PORT score, the diagnostic odds ratios (DORs) were 5.28 (2.49-11.17) and 3.76 (2.88-4.92), respectively, and the areas under the curve (AUCs) were 0.68 (0.64-0.72) and 0.71 (0.67-0.75), respectively. Conversely, the AUCs for ≥IV and V were 0.71 (0.67-0.76) and 0.74 (0.70-0.78), respectively, when applied only to nonimmunocompromised patients. In contrast, when using cutoff values of ≥2 and ≥3 for CURB-65, the DORs were 3.35 (2.26-4.97) and 2.65 (2.05-3.43), respectively, and the AUCs were 0.65 (0.61-0.69) and 0.66 (0.62-0.70), respectively. Conversely, the AUCs for ≥2 and ≥3 were 0.65 (0.61-0.69) and 0.68 (0.64-0.72), respectively, when applied only to nonimmunocompromised patients. CONCLUSIONS: The PORT score and CURB-65 do not have substantial power compared with the tools for CAP patients, although the PORT score is more useful than CURB-65 for predicting mortality in HCAP patients. According to our results, however, these tools, especially the PORT score, can be more useful when limited to nonimmunocompromised patients.

Assessing decision of inpatient or outpatient care in community acquired pneumonia: APT care study.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the proportion of community-acquired pneumonia patients with disagreement between Confusion, Uraemia, Respiratory rate, Blood pressure, age > 65 years recommendation and physician's decision to hospitalise or not. METHODS: This cross-sectional nation-wide, non-interventional, cross-sectional study was carried out across 10 cities of Pakistan from December 2011 to May 2012, and recruited consenting adult patients with confirmatory diagnosis of community-acquired pneumonia on chest X-ray. Confusion, Uraemia, Respiratory rate, Blood pressure, age > 65 years recommendation for each patient was determined at the time of analysis. This recommendation was compared with treatment decision made by the physician. Disagreement was considered when the physician's decision did not match with the recommendation. SPSS 18 was used for data analysis. RESULTS: Of the 352 patients, 201(57.10%) were males. The overall mean age was 50.67±18.45 years. In 140(39.77%) patients there was disagreement between Confusion, Uraemia, Respiratory rate, Blood pressure, age > 65 years recommendation and physician's decision regarding hospitalisation or outpatient care. Of the 352 cases 132(37.50%) were hospitalised despite the recommendation of outpatient treatment. CONCLUSIONS: In almost four out of every 10 patients there was disagreement between Confusion, Uraemia, Respiratory rate, Blood pressure, age > 65 years recommendation and the physician's decision regarding hospitalisation of community-acquired pneumonia patients.