Adaptive Gaussian Markov random fields for child mortality estimation.

The under-5 mortality rate (U5MR), a critical health indicator, is typically estimated from household surveys in lower and middle income countries. Spatio-temporal disaggregation of household survey data can lead to highly variable estimates of U5MR, necessitating the usage of smoothing models which borrow information across space and time. The assumptions of common smoothing models may be unrealistic when certain time periods or regions are expected to have shocks in mortality relative to their neighbors, which can lead to oversmoothing of U5MR estimates. In this paper, we develop a spatial and temporal smoothing approach based on Gaussian Markov random field models which incorporate knowledge of these expected shocks in mortality. We demonstrate the potential for these models to improve upon alternatives not incorporating knowledge of expected shocks in a simulation study. We apply these models to estimate U5MR in Rwanda at the national level from 1985 to 2019, a time period which includes the Rwandan civil war and genocide.

High Child Mortality and Interventions Coverage in the City of Dar es Salaam, Tanzania: Are the Poorest Paying an Urban Penalty?

The 'urban penalty' in health refers to the loss of a presumed survival advantage due to adverse consequences of urban life. This study investigated the levels and trends in neonatal, post-neonatal and under-5 mortality rate and key determinants of child survival using data from Tanzania Demographic and Health Surveys (TDHS) (2004/05, 2010 and 2015/16), AIDS Indicator Survey (AIS), Malaria Indicator survey (MIS) and health facility data in Tanzania mainland. We compared Dar es Salaam results with other urban and rural areas in Tanzania mainland, and between the poorest and richest wealth tertiles within Dar es Salaam. Under-5 mortality declined by 41% between TDHS 2004/05 and 2015/2016 from 132 to 78 deaths per 1000 live births, with a greater decline in rural areas compared to Dar es Salaam and other urban areas. Neonatal mortality rate was consistently higher in Dar es Salaam during the same period, with the widest gap (> 50%) between Dar es Salaam and rural areas in TDHS 2015/2016. Coverage of maternal, new-born and child health interventions as well as living conditions were generally better in Dar es Salaam than elsewhere. Within the city, neonatal mortality was 63 and 44 per 1000 live births in the poorest 33% and richest 33%, respectively. The poorest had higher rates of stunting, more overcrowding, inadequate sanitation and lower coverage of institutional deliveries and C-section rate, compared to richest tertile. Children in Dar es Salaam do not have improved survival chances compared to rural children, despite better living conditions and higher coverage of essential health interventions. This urban penalty is higher among children of the poorest households which could only partly be explained by the available indicators of coverage of services and living conditions. Further research is urgently needed to understand the reasons for the urban penalty, including quality of care, health behaviours and environmental conditions.

Erosion of the Capital City Advantage in Child Survival and Reproductive, Maternal, Newborn, and Child Health Intervention Coverage in Sub-Saharan Africa.

The place of residence is a major determinant of RMNCH outcomes, with rural areas often lagging in sub-Saharan Africa. This long-held pattern may be changing given differential progress across areas and increasing urbanization. We assessed inequalities in child mortality and RMNCH coverage across capital cities and other urban and rural areas. We analyzed mortality data from 163 DHS and MICS in 39 countries with the most recent survey conducted between 1990 and 2020 and RMNCH coverage data from 39 countries. We assessed inequality trends in neonatal and under-five mortality and in RMNCH coverage using multilevel linear regression models. Under-five mortality rates and RMNCH service coverage inequalities by place of residence have reduced substantially in sub-Saharan Africa, with rural areas experiencing faster progress than other areas. The absolute gap in child mortality between rural areas and capital cities and that between rural and other urban areas reduced respectively from 41 and 26 deaths per 1000 live births in 2000 to 23 and 15 by 2015. Capital cities are losing their primacy in child survival and RMNCH coverage over other urban areas and rural areas, especially in Eastern Africa where under-five mortality gap between capital cities and rural areas closed almost completely by 2015. While child mortality and RMNCH coverage inequalities are closing rapidly by place of residence, slower trends in capital cities and urban areas suggest gradual erosion of capital city and urban health advantage. Monitoring child mortality and RMNCH coverage trends in urban areas, especially among the urban poor, and addressing factors of within urban inequalities are urgently needed.

Inter-district and Wealth-related Inequalities in Maternal and Child Health Service Coverage and Child Mortality within Addis Ababa City.

In sub-Saharan Africa, urban areas generally have better access to and use of maternal, newborn, and child health (MNCH) services than rural areas, but previous research indicates that there are significant intra-urban disparities. This study aims to investigate temporal trends and geographic differences in maternal, newborn, and child health service utilization between Addis Ababa's poorest and richest districts and households. A World Bank district-based poverty index was used to classify districts into the top 60% (non-poor) and bottom 40% (poor), and wealth index data from the Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey (EDHS) was used to classify households into the top 60% (non-poor) and bottom 40% (poor). Essential maternal, newborn, and child health service coverage was estimated from routine health facility data for 2019-2021, and five rounds of the EDHS (2000-2019) were used to estimate child mortality. The results showed that service coverage was substantially higher in the top 60% than in the bottom 40% of districts. Coverage of four antenatal care visits, skill birth attendance, and postnatal care all exceeded 90% in the non-poor districts but only ranged from 54 to 67% in the poor districts. Inter-district inequalities were less pronounced for childhood vaccinations, with over 90% coverage levels across all districts. Inter-district inequalities in mortality rates were considerable. The neonatal mortality rate was nearly twice as high in the bottom 40% of households' as in the top 60% of households. Similarly, the under-5 mortality rate was three times higher in the bottom 40% compared to the top 60% of households. The substantial inequalities in MNCH service utilization and child mortality in Addis Ababa highlight the need for greater focus on the city's women and children living in the poorest households and districts in maternal, newborn, and child health programs.

Ethnic inequality and public health.

We examine the association between ethnic inequality and various key health outcomes for a global set of developed and developing countries. Our results show that higher ethnic inequality is associated with a poor state of public health, such as higher child and maternal mortality, increased stillbirths and child stunting, and reduced life expectancy at birth. This set of effects is found to be predominant mainly in developing countries, and Sub-Saharan African countries. Results remain robust to the inclusion of various other measures of inequality, ethnic composition indices, geographic endowments, and other relevant controls. We argue that lower contraceptive usage and poor vaccination rates are potential mechanisms through which ethnic inequality affects health outcomes. Policies targeted at improving public health may need to focus more on these key intermediate channels in ethnic minority regions.

Terrorism and child mortality.

How does terrorism affect child mortality? We use geo-coded data on terrorism and spatially disaggregated data on child mortality to study the relationship between both variables for 52 African countries between 2000 and 2017 at the 0.5 × 0.5° grid level. Our estimates suggest that moderate increases in terrorism are linked to several thousand additional annual deaths of children under the age of five. A panel event-study points to economic effects that are larger and compound over time. Interrogating our data, we show that the direct impact of terrorism tends to be very small. Instead, we theorize that terrorism causes child mortality primarily by triggering adverse behavioral responses by parents, medical workers, and policymakers. We provide tentative evidence in support of this argument.

Health insurance and child mortality: Evidence from India.

Although less than a third of the population in developing countries is covered by health insurance, the number has been on the rise. Many countries have implemented national insurance policies in the past decade. However, there is limited evidence on their impact on child mortality in low- and middle-income contexts. Here we document the child mortality reducing effects of an at-scale national level health insurance policy in India. The Rashtriya Swasthya Bima Yojana (RSBY), was rolled out across India between 2008 and 2013. Leveraging the temporal and spatial variation in program implementation, we demonstrate that it lowered infant mortality by 6% and child under five mortality by 5%. The effects are largely concentrated among urban poor households. In terms of mechanisms, we find that the program effects seem to be driven by increased usage of reproductive health services by mothers. We also demonstrate a rise in usage of complementary health services that were were not covered under the policy (such as child immunizations), which suggests that RSBY had significant positive spillover effects on health care usage.

Estimating 1a0 and 4a1 in a Life Table: A Model Approach Based on Newly Collected Data.

The average age of infant deaths, a10, and the average number of years lived-in the age interval-by those dying between ages 1 and 5, a41, are important quantities allowing the construction of any life table including these ages. In many applications, the direct calculation of these parameters is not possible, so they are estimated using the infant mortality rate-or the death rate from 0 to 1-as a predictor. Existing methods are general approximations that do not consider the full variability in the age patterns of mortality below the age of 5. However, at the same level of mortality, under-five deaths can be more or less concentrated during the first weeks and months of life, thus resulting in very different values of a10 and a41. This article proposes an indirect estimation of these parameters by using a recently developed model of under-five mortality and taking advantage of a new, comprehensive database by detailed age-which is used for validation. The model adapts to a variety of inputs (e.g., rates, probabilities, or the proportion of deaths by sex or for both sexes combined), providing more flexibility for the users and increasing the precision of the estimates. This fresh perspective consolidates a new method that outperforms all previous approaches.

Trends in Twin Births and Survival in Bangladesh: An Analysis of Half a Century of Evidence.

This study assessed the trends in twin births and their survival in Bangladesh by analyzing over a quarter million live births during 1970-2018, pooled from all eight rounds of the Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey. In these five decades, the twinning rate increased by 1.5 times, from 5.8 to 8.6 twins per 1000 maternities. The decadal twinning rates varied across maternal age, parity, body mass index, household wealth index, and geographic region. The gap in decadal neonatal, infant, and under-five cumulative survival probability between singleton and multiple births was found to be closing, using Kaplan-Meier curves. Child mortality decreased by 80% and 60% in singleton and multiple births respectively. However, the absolute size of child mortality in multiple births remained six times higher than in singletons and was concentrated in the neonatal period. The share of multiple births surged in all types of child mortality. We predict a further and faster rise in multiple births in the coming decades in the face of upward trends in maternal age overlapping with higher parities, education, career prospects, contraceptive use, and the future demand-supply of assisted reproductive technology. A particular focus on the improvement of perinatal and neonatal care with wider availability is warranted. Otherwise, increased multiple births might raise child mortality and create public health challenges.

Measuring spatial inequalities in maternal and child mortalities in Pakistan: evidence from geographically weighted regression.

BACKGROUND: In developing countries, the death probability of a child and mother is more significant than in developed countries; these inequalities in health outcomes are unfair. The present study encompasses a spatial analysis of maternal and child mortalities in Pakistan. The study aims to estimate the District Mortality Index (DMI), measure the inequality ratio and slope, and ascertain the spatial impact of numerous factors on DMI scores across Pakistani districts. METHOD: This study used micro-level household datasets from multiple indicator cluster surveys (MICS) to estimate the DMI. To find out how different the DMI scores were, the inequality ratio and slope were used. This study further utilized spatial autocorrelation tests to determine the magnitude and location of the spatial dependence of the clusters with high and low mortality rates. The Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) model was also applied to examine the spatial impact of socioeconomic, environmental, health, and housing attributes on DMI. RESULTS: The inequality ratio for DMI showed that the upper decile districts are 16 times more prone to mortalities than districts in the lower decile, and the districts of Baluchistan depicted extreme spatial heterogeneity in terms of DMI. The findings of the Local Indicator of Spatial Association (LISA) and Moran's test confirmed spatial homogeneity in all mortalities among the districts in Pakistan. The H-H clusters of maternal mortality and DMI were in Baluchistan, and the H-H clusters of child mortality were seen in Punjab. The results of GWR showed that the wealth index quintile has a significant spatial impact on DMI; however, improved sanitation, handwashing practices, and antenatal care adversely influenced DMI scores. CONCLUSION: The findings reveal a significant disparity in DMI and spatial relationships among all mortalities in Pakistan's districts. Additionally, socioeconomic, environmental, health, and housing variables have an impact on DMI. Notably, spatial proximity among individuals who are at risk of death occurs in areas with elevated mortality rates. Policymakers may mitigate these mortalities by focusing on vulnerable zones and implementing measures such as raising public awareness, enhancing healthcare services, and improving access to clean drinking water and sanitation facilities.

Reducing the equity gap in under-5 mortality through an innovative community health program in Ethiopia: an implementation research study.

BACKGROUND: The Ethiopian government implemented a national community health program, the Health Extension Program (HEP), to provide community-based health services to address persisting access-related barriers to care using health extension workers (HEWs). We used implementation research to understand how Ethiopia leveraged the HEP to widely implement evidence-based interventions (EBIs) known to reduce under-5 mortality (U5M) and address health inequities. METHODS: This study was part of a six-country case study series using implementation research to understand how countries implemented EBIs between 2000-2015. Our mixed-methods research was informed by a hybrid implementation science framework using desk review of published and gray literature, analysis of existing data sources, and 11 key informant interviews. We used implementation of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV-10) and integrated community case management (iCCM) to illustrate Ethiopia's ability to rapidly integrate interventions into existing systems at a national level through leveraging the HEP and other implementation strategies and contextual factors which influenced implementation outcomes. RESULTS: Ethiopia implemented numerous EBIs known to address leading causes of U5M, leveraging the HEP as a platform for delivery to successfully introduce and scale new EBIs nationally. By 2014/15, estimated coverage of three doses of PCV-10 was at 76%, with high acceptability (nearly 100%) of vaccines in the community. Between 2000 and 2015, we found evidence of improved care-seeking; coverage of oral rehydration solution for treatment of diarrhea, a service included in iCCM, doubled over this period. HEWs made health services more accessible to rural and pastoralist communities, which account for over 80% of the population, with previously low access, a contextual factor that had been a barrier to high coverage of interventions. CONCLUSIONS: Leveraging the HEP as a platform for service delivery allowed Ethiopia to successfully introduce and scale existing and new EBIs nationally, improving feasibility and reach of introduction and scale-up of interventions. Additional efforts are required to reduce the equity gap in coverage of EBIs including PCV-10 and iCCM among pastoralist and rural communities. As other countries continue to work towards reducing U5M, Ethiopia's experience provides important lessons in effectively delivering key EBIs in the presence of challenging contextual factors.

Assessing the Link between Maternal Transport Modes and Childhood Mortality in Nigeria.

OBJECTIVES: The study explored the association between maternal transport modes and childhood mortalities in Nigeria. METHOD: Utilizing data and definitions from the 2018 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey report, the ten-year early mortality rates of the five childhood mortalities and the percentage of live births in the 5 years before the survey, transported by eight identified means of transportation, were statistically correlated for each of Nigeria's 36 states and the federal capital territory (FCT) in the R environment at a significance level of α < 0.05. RESULTS: In the spatial distribution of the five childhood mortalities, a notable north-south dichotomy was observed, contrasting with the spatial spread of maternal transport modes. The five childhood mortalities exhibited a significant, moderately positive correlation with transportation by Private Car or Truck, while their associations with Public Transport or Bus and Walking were notably moderate but negative. CONCLUSION FOR PRACTICE: While the use of private cars or trucks should be encouraged as a means of maternal transport, public transport should be better organized to provide efficient services to women who need such services for maternal and child healthcare. Additionally, steps should be taken to reduce travel distances to health facilities to manageable distances for mothers.

The effects of reproductive variables on child mortality in Ethiopia: evidence from demographic and health surveys from 2000 to 2016.

BACKGROUND: Child mortality is a crucial indicator reflecting a country's health and socioeconomic status. Despite significant global improvements in reducing early childhood deaths, Southern Asia and sub-Saharan Africa still bear the highest burden of newborn mortality. Ethiopia is one of five countries that account for half of new-born deaths worldwide. METHODS: This study examined the relationship between specific reproductive factors and under-five mortality in Ethiopia. A discrete-time survival model was applied to analyze data collected from four Ethiopian Demographic and Health Surveys (EDHS) conducted between 2000 and 2016. The study focused on investigating the individual and combined effects of three factors: preceding birth interval, maternal age at childbirth, and birth order, on child mortality. RESULTS: The study found that lengthening the preceding birth interval to 18-23, 24-35, 36-47, or 48+ months reduced the risk of under-five deaths by 30%, 46%, 56%, and 60% respectively, compared to very short birth intervals (less than 18 months). Giving birth between the ages 20-34 and 35+ reduced the risk by 34% and 8% respectively, compared to giving birth below the age of 20. The risk of under-five death was higher for a 7th-born child by 17% compared to a 2nd or 3rd-born child. The combined effect analysis showed that higher birth order at a young maternal age increased the risk. In comparison, lower birth order in older maternal age groups was associated with higher risk. Lastly, very short birth intervals posed a greater risk for children with higher birth orders. CONCLUSION: Not only does one reproductive health variable negatively affect child survival, but their combination has the strongest effect. It is therefore recommended that policies in Ethiopia should address short birth intervals, young age of childbearing, and order of birth through an integrated strategy.

A cross-sectional study quantifies the independent contribution of nurses and midwives in child health outcomes.

INTRODUCTION: As the largest profession within the healthcare industry, nursing and midwifery workforce (NMW) provides comprehensive healthcare to children and their families. This study quantified the independent role of NMW in reducing under-5 mortality rate (U5MR) worldwide. DESIGN: A retrospective, observational and correlational study to examine the independent role of NMW in protecting against U5MR. METHODS: Within 266 "countries", the cross-sectional correlations between NMW and U5MR were examined with scatter plots, Pearson's r, nonparametric, partial correlation and multiple regression. The affluence, education and urban advantages were considered as the potential competing factors for the NMW-U5MR relationship. The NMW-U5MR correlations in both developing and developed countries were explored and compared. RESULTS: Bivariate correlations revealed that NMW negatively and significantly correlated to U5MR worldwide. When the contributing effects of economic affluence, urbanization and education were removed, the independent NMW role in reducing U5MR remained significant. NMW independently explained 9.36% U5MR variance. Multilinear regression selected NMW as a significant factor contributing an extra 3% of explanation to U5MR variance when NMW, affluence, education and urban advantage were incorporated as the predicting variables. NMW correlated with U5MR significantly more strongly in developing countries than in developed countries. CONCLUSION: NMW, indexing nursing and midwifery service, was a significant factor for reducing U5MR worldwide. This beneficial effect explained 9.36% of U5MR variance which was independent of economic affluence, urbanization and education. The NMW may be a more significant risk factor for protecting children from dying under 5 years old in developing countries. As a strategic response to the advocacy of the United Nations to reduce child mortality, it is worthy for health authorities to consider a further extension of nurses and midwives' practice scope to enable communities to have more access to NMW healthcare services.

A greater nurse and midwife density protects against infant mortality globally.

PURPOSE: As the largest profession within the health care workforce, nurses and midwives play a critical role in the health and wellness of families especially children and infants. This study suggests those countries with higher nurse and midwife densities (NMD) had lower infant mortality rates (IMR). DESIGN AND METHODS: With affluence, low birthweight and urbanization incorporated as potential confounders, this ecological study analyzed the correlations between NMD and IMR with scatterplots, Pearson r correlation, partial correlation and multiple linear regression models. Countries were also grouped for analysing and comparing their Pearson's coefficients. RESULTS: NMD inversely and significantly correlated to IMR worldwide. This relationship remained significant independent of the confounders, economic affluence, low birthweight and urbanization. Explaining 57.19% of IMR variance, high NMD was implicated in significantly reducing the IMR. PRACTICE IMPLICATIONS: Countries with high NMD had lower IMRs both worldwide and with special regard to developing countries. This may interest healthcare policymakers, especially those from developing countries, to consider the impacts of global nursing and midwifery staffing shortages. Nurses and midwives are the group of healthcare professionals who spend most with infants and their carers. This may be another alert for the health authorities to extend nurses and midwives' practice scope for promoting infant health.

A retrospective review of methylamphetamine detected in child deaths reported to the Victorian Coroner, Australia.

This study investigated methylamphetamine (MA) exposures in the deaths of children (≤ 12 years old) reported to the Coroner in the state of Victoria, Australia, between 2011 and 2020. Demographics, autopsy findings including the cause of death, self-reported prenatal or caregiver drug use, child protection services information, and toxicological findings were summarized by descriptive statistics. Validated methods of liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry were used in the analysis of drugs. There were 50 child deaths with MA detected in blood, urine, and/or hair with 64% (n = 32) identified in 2018-2020. Most children were 1-365 days old (66%, n = 33) and the cause of death was unascertained in 62% (n = 31) of cases. MA was toxicologically confirmed in hair (94%, n = 47) significantly more than blood (18%, n = 9). Prenatal or caregiver drug use was self-reported in 44% (n = 22) and 42% (n = 21) of cases, respectively. Moreover, only 54% (n = 27) of deceased children were a child protection client at their time of death. These findings suggest the number of deceased children exposed to MA has increased over the past 10 years, which is consistent with the greater supply of crystal MA in the Australian community. Hair analysis provided additional means to identify cases that were unknown to child protection services and may have implications for other children in the same drug exposure environment.

Child Survival and Annual Crop Yield Reductions in Rural Burkina Faso: Critical Windows of Vulnerability Around Early-Life Development.

Populations that are reliant on subsistence farming are particularly vulnerable to climatic effects on crop yields. However, empirical evidence on the role of the timing of exposure to crop yield deficits in early-life development is limited. We examined the relationship between child survival and annual crop yield reductions at different stages of early-life development in a subsistence farming population in Burkina Faso. Using shared frailty Cox proportional hazards models adjusting for confounders, we analyzed 57,288 children under 5 years of age followed by the Nouna Health and Demographic Surveillance System (1994-2016) in relation to provincial food-crop yield levels experienced in 5 nonoverlapping time windows (12 months before conception, gestation, birth-age 5.9 months, ages 6.0 months-1.9 years, and ages 2.0-4.9 years) and their aggregates (birth-1.9 years, first 1,000 days from conception, and birth-4.9 years). Of the nonoverlapping windows, point estimates were largest for child survival related to food-crop yields for the time window of 6.0 months-1.9 years: The adjusted mortality hazard ratio was 1.10 (95% confidence interval: 1.03, 1.19) for a 90th-to-10th percentile yield reduction. These findings suggest that child survival in this setting is particularly vulnerable to cereal-crop yield reductions during the period of nonexclusive breastfeeding.

Extended Risk of Mortality in Children with Inborn Errors of Metabolism: A Longitudinal Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the long-term risk of mortality among children with inborn errors of metabolism. STUDY DESIGN: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of 1750 children with inborn errors of metabolism (excluding mitochondrial disorders) and 1 036 668 children without errors of metabolism who were born in Quebec, Canada, between 2006 and 2019. Main outcome measures included all-cause and cause-specific mortality between birth and 14 years of age. We used adjusted survival regression models to estimate HRs and 95% CIs for the association between inborn errors of metabolism and mortality over time. RESULTS: Mortality rates were greater for children with errors of metabolism than for unaffected children (69.1 vs 3.2 deaths per 10 000 person-years). During 7 702 179 person-years of follow-up, inborn errors of metabolism were associated with 21.2 times the risk of mortality compared with no error of metabolism (95% CI 17.23-26.11). Disorders of mineral metabolism were associated with greater mortality the first 28 days of life (HR 60.62, 95% CI 10.04-365.98), and disorders of sphingolipid metabolism were associated with greater mortality by 1 year (HR 284.73, 95% CI 139.20-582.44) and 14 years (HR 1066.00, 95% CI 298.91-3801.63). Errors of metabolism were disproportionately associated with death from hepatic/digestive (HR 208.21, 95% CI 90.28-480.22), respiratory (HR 116.57, 95% CI 71.06-191.23), and infectious causes (HR 119.83, 95% CI 40.56-354.04). CONCLUSIONS: Children with errors of metabolism have a considerably elevated risk of mortality before 14 years, including death from hepatic/digestive, respiratory, and infectious causes. Targeting these causes of death may help improve long-term survival.

Stillbirth and early neonatal mortality rates may be underestimated using recall information: A comparison of demographic surveillance methodologies.

OBJECTIVE: Child mortality and stillbirth rates (SBR) remain high in low-income countries but may be underestimated due to incomplete reporting of child deaths in retrospective pregnancy/birth histories. The aim of this study is to compare stillbirth and mortality estimates derived using two different methods: the method assuming full information and the prospective method. METHODS: Bandim Health Project's Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems (HDSS) follows women of reproductive age and children under five through routine home visits every 1, 2 or 6 months. Between 2012 and 2020, we estimated and compared early neonatal (ENMR, <7 days), neonatal (NMR, <28 days), and infant mortality (IMR, <1 year) per 1000 live births and SBR per 1000 births. Risk time for children born to registered women was calculated from birth (the method assuming full information) versus date of first observation in the HDSS (the prospective method), either at birth (for pregnancy registration) or registration. Rates were calculated using the Kaplan-Meier estimator and compared in generalised linear models allowing for within-child correlation obtaining relative risks (RR). RESULTS: We registered and followed 29,413 infants (1380 deaths; 1459 stillbirths) prospectively. An additional 164 infant deaths and 129 stillbirths were registered retrospectively and included in the method assuming full information. The ENMR was 24.5 (95%CI: 22.6-26.4) for the method assuming full information and 25.8 (23.7-27.8) for the prospective method, RR = 0.96 (0.93-0.99). Differences were smaller for the NMRs and IMRs. For SBRs, the estimates were 53.5 (50.9-56.0) and 58.6 (55.7-61.5); RR = 0.91 (0.90-0.93). The difference between methods became more pronounced when the analysis was limited to areas visited every 6 months: RR for ENMR: 0.91 (0.86-0.96) and RR for SBR: 0.85 (0.83-0.87). CONCLUSIONS: Assuming full information underestimates SBR and ENMR. Accounting for omissions of stillbirths and early neonatal deaths may lead to more accurate estimates and improved ability to monitor mortality.

Public health determinants of child malaria mortality: a surveillance study within Siaya County, Western Kenya.

BACKGROUND: Malaria deaths among children have been declining worldwide during the last two decades. Despite preventive, epidemiologic and therapy-development work, mortality rate decline has stagnated in western Kenya resulting in persistently high child malaria morbidity and mortality. The aim of this study was to identify public health determinants influencing the high burden of malaria deaths among children in this region. METHODS: A total of 221,929 children, 111,488 females and 110,441 males, under the age of 5 years were enrolled in the Kenya Medical Research Institute/Center for Disease Control Health and Demographic Surveillance System (KEMRI/CDC HDSS) study area in Siaya County during the period 2003-2013. Cause of death was determined by use of verbal autopsy. Age-specific mortality rates were computed, and cox proportional hazard regression was used to model time to malaria death controlling for the socio-demographic factors. A variety of demographic, social and epidemiologic factors were examined. RESULTS: In total 8,696 (3.9%) children died during the study period. Malaria was the most prevalent cause of death and constituted 33.2% of all causes of death, followed by acute respiratory infections (26.7%) and HIV/AIDS related deaths (18.6%). There was a marked decrease in overall mortality rate from 2003 to 2013, except for a spike in the rates in 2008. The hazard of death differed between age groups with the youngest having the highest hazard of death HR 6.07 (95% CI 5.10-7.22). Overall, the risk attenuated with age and mortality risks were limited beyond 4 years of age. Longer distance to healthcare HR of 1.44 (95% CI 1.29-1.60), l ow maternal education HR 3.91 (95% CI 1.86-8.22), and low socioeconomic status HR 1.44 (95% CI 1.26-1.64) were all significantly associated with increased hazard of malaria death among children. CONCLUSIONS: While child mortality due to malaria in the study area in Western Kenya, has been decreasing, a final step toward significant risk reduction is yet to be accomplished. This study highlights residual proximal determinants of risk which can further inform preventive actions.