How does climate change risk affect energy poverty? International evidence.

Based on cross-country data from 2002 to 2019, we explore the impact of climate change risk (CCR) on energy poverty (EP), and the moderating role in the CCR-EP nexus is also discussed. The empirical results suggest that CCR can exacerbate EP, especially for rural areas. Moderating effect analysis shows that financial development, technological innovation, and adaptation readiness can modify the negative impacts of CCR on EP to some extent. Moreover, the impact of CCR on EP is heterogeneous, demonstrating that CCR is more likely to exacerbate EP in countries with low economic development, low economic freedom, high carbon intensity, and the Africa region. Our findings emphasize the challenge of balancing EP alleviation with climate change response and provide the policy guidance to promote coordinated development of CCR management and energy supply security.

Biospheric values as predictor of climate change risk perception: A multinational investigation.

Climate change is one of the big challenges of our time. A better understanding of how individuals form their evaluation of the risk related to climate change seems to be key to win broad support for climate change mitigation efforts. Extant research indicates that biospheric values (BV) are an important antecedent of individuals' perception of the risk and consequences related to climate change. However, risk perception scholars have only recently started to study how BV relate to individuals' climate change risk perception (CCRP) and much is still to be learned about this relationship. The present study contributes to this growing literature by studying the BV-CCRP relationship in a multinational context. The results suggest that the BV - CCRP relationship varies in strength between different countries. These differences can be explained in part by societies' cultural leanings (i.e., individualism vs. collectivism) and societies' wealth. The present research adds to our understanding of why individuals in different countries perceive climate change related risk differently and how this perception is shaped differently by biospheric values in different countries. In this way, the findings help to build a more nuanced theory of how CCRP are formed. The presented results also have implications for policymakers and NGOs who wish to increase individuals' engagement with climate change and its consequences in different populations. In particular, the findings suggests that it might be necessary to use different strategies in different societies to achieve a greater awareness of climate change related risks.

Should central banks manage climate change risk via a CO2 emissions augmented Taylor rule? Evidence using a DSGE approach.

The detrimental effects of climate change are becoming pressingly apparent over the decades with policy-makers clumsily grappling with various policies to mitigate on its impacts on their respective economies. However, inefficiencies permeate in the implementation of these policies as they are being implemented only at the end of the process of economic activities. To resolve such a problem, this paper develops an innovative and novel approach to internalize CO2 emissions by proposing a ramified Taylor rule which captures a climate change premium, the level of which is directly dependent on the extent of deviation of actual CO2 emissions from its targeted level. The key benefits of the proposed tool are that not only effectiveness level is being bolstered by applying the tool right at the start of the process of economic activities but also that funds collected out of such a climate change premium could empower governments worldwide to vigorously green their economies. The model is tested for a given economy using the DSGE approach with findings attesting to the effectiveness of the proposed tool in curtailing the level CO2 emissions, independent of the type of monetary shock under scrutiny. Most importantly, depending on the extent of aggressiveness in mitigating the pollutants level, the parameter weight coefficient can be fine-tuned accordingly.

Individual and social-psychological factors to explain climate change efficacy: The role of mindfulness, sense of global community, and egalitarianism.

This article focused on the study of individual and social-psychological determinants of a sense of efficacy on climate change mitigation. A correlational study investigated the predictive role of mindfulness, egalitarianism, risk concern, knowledge, and psychological sense of global community (PSGC). An online survey was administrated to US College students (N = 277). The main predictors of climate change response efficacy (CCRE) were PSGC and egalitarianism, followed by risk concern and climate knowledge. Among the facets of mindfulness, observing, and describing were the only ones associated with CCRE. The results found that mindfulness observing predicted response efficacy both directly and through the mediation of risk concern and sense of global community. Conversely, egalitarianism was not a significant mediator. Community psychologists should promote a sense of belonging to all humanity, and a more egalitarian view of the world, beyond risk concern, to increase climate efficacy. Training the skill of mindfulness observing could be a way to produce a sense of global community and affect climate change efficacy.

Spatial Bayesian Network for predicting sea level rise induced coastal erosion in a small Pacific Island.

An integrated approach combining Bayesian Network with GIS was developed for making a probabilistic prediction of sea level rise induced coastal erosion and assessing the implications of adaptation measures. The Bayesian Network integrates extensive qualitative and quantitative information into a single probabilistic model while GIS explicitly deals with spatial data for inputting, storing, analysing and mapping. The integration of the Bayesian Network with GIS using a cell-by-cell comparison technique (aka map algebra) provides a new tool to perform the probabilistic spatial analysis. The spatial Bayesian Network was utilised for predicting coastal erosion scenarios at the case study location of Tanna Island, Vanuatu in the South Pacific. Based on the Bayesian Network model, a rate of the island shoreline change was predicted probabilistically for each shoreline segment, which was transferred into GIS for visualisation purposes. The spatial distribution of shoreline change prediction results for various sea level rise scenarios was mapped. The outcomes of this work support risk-based adaptation planning and will be further developed to enable the incorporation of high resolution coastal process models, thereby supporting localised land use planning decisions.

Assessing climate risks across different business sectors and industries: an investigation of methodological challenges at national scale for the UK.

Climate change poses severe risks for businesses, which companies as well as governments need to understand in order to take appropriate steps to manage those. This, however, represents a significant challenge as climate change risk assessment is itself a complex, dynamic and geographically diverse process. A wide range of factors including the nature of production processes and value chains, the location of business sites as well as relationships and interdependencies with customers and suppliers play a role in determining if and how companies are impacted by climate risks. This research explores the methodological challenges for a national-scale assessment of climate risks through the lens of the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment (UKCCRA) process and compares the approaches adopted in the first and second UKCCRA (2011, 2016), while also reflecting on international experiences elsewhere. A review of these issues is presented, drawing on a wide body of contemporary evidence from a range of sources including the research disciplines, grey literature and government policy. The study reveals the methodological challenges and highlights six broad themes, namely scale, evidence base, adaptation responses, scope, interdependencies and public policy. The paper concludes by identifying suitable lessons for future national climate risk assessments, which should guide the next phase of research in preparation for UKCCRA3 and those of national-level risk assessments elsewhere.This article is part of the theme issue 'Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'.

Media exposure to climate change information and pro-environmental behavior: the role of climate change risk judgment.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to examine the relationships between exposure to climate change information in traditional and modern media, cognitive and emotional aspects of climate change risk judgment, and pro-environmental behavior (PEB). METHOD: A cross-sectional online study was conducted on a quota sample of 1,075 participants (51.9% women) aged 18-79 years. Participants self-reported their exposure to climate change-related information in traditional (e.g. television) and modern media (e.g. social networks), cognitive assessment of climate change risk, level of worry about climate change, and the frequency of PEB. RESULTS: Structural equation modeling showed a good fit for the parallel mediation model, involving cognitive risk judgment and worry as mediators between exposure to climate change information in traditional and modern media and PEB. Exposure to climate change information in traditional media had indirect effect on PEB through heightened worry, but not cognitive risk judgment. In contrast, exposure to climate change information in modern media had no indirect effect on PEB. CONCLUSION: Since the link between exposure to climate change information in traditional media and PEB has been shown to be mediated by climate change worry, it is important to enhance the coverage of climate change in traditional media in Croatia, taking care to offer solutions to reduce possible negative impact on people's well-being.

From risk to resilience: Climate change risk, ESG investments engagement and Firm's value.

In line with Sustainable Development Goals, firms are increasingly incorporating Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) considerations in their investment strategies. The effect of firms' climate change risk (FCCR) on firms' Value (FV), and how such investment engagements moderate this effect, is a prominent subject of debate among scholars, investors, and policymakers. To examine these dynamics, we analyze a dataset of 1771 United States (US)-listed firms from 2006 to 2021 to quantify the effect of FCCR on FV. We use the generalized method of moments model to achieve our objectives. The major findings are summarized as follows: First, FCCR has a negative and significant effect on FV. Second, ESG investments positively and significantly influence FV. Third, ESG investments significantly moderate the FCCR-FV relationship. We confirm our estimations are robust under different estimations strategies. Finally, this article provides a fresh perspective on risk management with significant policy implications for investors, managers, and regulators in the US. We suggest that ESG investing is an important strategic catalyst for US firms.

Hedging climate change risks in Southern Africa's agricultural industry using catastrophe bonds.

The agricultural sector is one of the key economic contributors in Southern Africa. However, agricultural production has been highly affected by climate change risks such as tropical cyclones, floods, droughts, heatwaves, hail, etc., which threaten food and nutrition security, livelihoods and business sustainability. Because of underwriting capacity problems, insurers and reinsurers have failed to provide cover for climate change risks. Also, derivatives have failed to provide a reliable option for hedging such risks. This paper explores the concept of catastrophe bonds (CAT bonds) in providing climate change risk finance. Employing the content analysis, the research shows how CAT bonds can help traditional (re)insurance in providing sufficient hedge against climate change risks and in improving disaster-preparedness, disaster risk-reduction, post-recovery initiatives and sustainable socio-economic agricultural development. The findings show that the adoption of CAT bonds can improve (re)insurers´ underwriting capacity and may enhance agricultural land policies, development, food and nutrition security and employment. Contribution: The paper shows how CAT bonds can be employed to hedge against climate change risks in agricultural production and to increase (re)insurers´ underwriting capacity. It further discusses the attractiveness of CAT bonds as another investment option for agricultural investors and how to develop and institutionalise a CAT bond market.

A risk-based approach to the analysis of potential climate change effects on fish communities associated to Posidonia oceanica in the Mediterranean.

The Mediterranean is recognized as a climate change hotspot, with ongoing warming anticipated to impact its habitats and their associated fish fauna. Among these habitats, the seagrass Posidonia oceanica stands out as a foundational species, critical for the stability of coastal fish communities. However, our understanding of climate change consequences on P. oceanica associated fish fauna to date remains limited in part due to a lack of long-term data. This study aimed to highlight potential climate change risks to fish species associated with Posidonia, integrating data on species' thermal envelopes with their habitat and depth preferences into a climate change risk index. Specifically, 9 species, including three pipefish and several wrasse species of the genus Symphodus, emerged as being at higher potential risk from climatic change. A historical time series from Palma Bay (Balearic Islands, Spain), spanning 45 years and providing clear evidence of warming, was employed to evaluate trends in species abundance and occurrence in relation to their relative climate risk score. While certain high-risk species like Symphodus cinereus and Diplodus annularis showed an increase in abundance over time, others, such as the pipefish Syngnathus acus, Syngnathus typhle and Nerophis maculatus experienced declines. The absence of observed declines in some high-risk species could be attributed to several factors, such as acclimation, adaptation, or unmet response thresholds. However, this does not rule out the potential for future changes in these species. Factors such as increased nutrient influx due to growing human populations and changes in fishing regulations may also have contributed to the observed trends. These findings underscore the intricate interplay of environmental and anthropogenic factors and accentuate the pressing need for sustained, long-term data acquisition to fathom the implications of climate change on this highly important marine ecosystem.

Cosmetics and Detergents with Recycled CO2: A Cross-Country Study with a Modified by Risk Perception Values-Beliefs-Norms Model.

This paper presents the examination of a values-beliefs-norms (VBN) model, modified by climate change risk perception, in France, Germany, and Spain, to investigate consumers' intentions to purchase personal and house care products that are going to contain innovative ingredients made from recycled CO2. Electronic interviews were undertaken by a research agency on stratified (gender and age) samples in each country. Solely biospheric values indicated a statistically significant and positive causal relationship with risk perception. Risk perception provided the strongest of all impacts on awareness of consequences. Awareness of consequences affected the ascription of responsibility, and ascription of responsibility affected personal norms, which in turn generated consumption intentions. VBN was found powerful in explaining 58%, 60.2%, and 43.3% of the variance in intentions to buy CPGs with green chemical ingredients in French, German, and Spanish consumers, respectively. Moderation analysis indicated that the relationship between personal norms and consumption intentions is stronger in France and Germany than in Spain. Theoretical and practical implications are provided.

The high climate vulnerability of western Mediterranean forests.

Understanding the effects of climate change is one of the most challenging goals for biodiversity conservation. The forests of Andalusia, in Southern Spain, are part of an important Mediterranean Basin biodiversity hotspot. However, great changes in climate are expected to occur in this region, and there is an increasing need to assess the vulnerability of its vegetation. We assess the vulnerability of twelve forest types in the region that are included in the European Directive 92/43/EEC as Habitats of Community Interest (HCI). HCI are natural habitat types which are in danger, have a small natural range, or present an outstanding example of a biogeographical regions in the European Union. We assessed vulnerability by analyzing the climate exposure level of each forest type under two global climate models (MRI-CGCM3, which predicts warmer and wetter conditions, and MIROC-ESM which predicts hotter and drier conditions), two emission scenarios (RCP4.5, a representative concentration pathway that predicts stable emissions of CO2, and RCP8.5, that predicts the highest CO2 emissions) by the mid- and end-century time periods. The vulnerability analysis also includes the sensitivity and adaptive capacity of the dominant tree species which compose each forest type. An overall vulnerability score was calculated for each forest type, model, scenario and time period. High-elevation forest types and those with high moisture requirements were more vulnerable to climate change, while forest types dominated by more thermophilic species were less vulnerable and more resilient. The worst climate impacts were predicted in the MIROC-ESM model and RCP8.5 scenario by the end of the century (2070-2100), while the least climatic stress was obtained in the MRI-CGCM3 model and RCP4.5 scenario by the mid-century (2040-2070), which still shows high potential stress for most forest types. By the end of the century, the climate exposure of the entire forest domain will range between 32 % in the least stressful situation (MRI-CGCM3 and RCP4.5), and 98 % in the most climatically stressful situation (MIROC-ESM and RCP8.5). However, the effects of climate change will be perceptible by the mid-century, with most of the HCI forest types suffering climate stress. The "Andalusian oak forest" and the "Corylus wet forest" types were the most vulnerable to climate change, while the "Mediterranean pine forest", the "Olea and Ceratonia forests" and the "oak forests" were the least vulnerable. This assessment identifies the vulnerable forest types to climate change in the south of the Iberian Peninsula, and provides context for natural resource managers in making decisions about how to adapt forests to the impacts of climate change.

Motivating Personal Climate Action through a Safety and Health Risk Management Framework.

BACKGROUND: There is overwhelming evidence the impacts of climate change present a probable threat to personal health and safety. However, traditional risk management approaches have not been applied to ameliorate the crises. The purpose of this study was to assess the impact on personal motivation for action of a communication intervention that framed climate change as a safety issue that can be mitigated through a safety and health risk management framework. Participants' perception of climate change in terms of its anthropogenicity, context and importance, perception as a personal threat, belief in the efficacy of human action, motivating drivers for action, knowledge of climate change impacts, perceived personal barriers to climate action, and short- and long-term preferences for mitigating actions were evaluated. In addition, this study assessed the role of personal worldview on motivation for climate action. METHODS: Through an online survey instrument embedded with a communication/education intervention, data were collected from N = 273 participants. Pre and post-intervention responses were assessed using Wilcoxon signed-rank tests and descriptive statistics. A path analysis assessed the influence of anthropogenicity, personal impact, and human efficacy beliefs on participant motivation for action. Multi-regression analyses and descriptive statics were used to evaluate the role of worldview on participant motivation for climate action. RESULTS: Personal motivation for action significantly increased post-intervention. Anthropogenicity, personal impact, and human efficacy beliefs were predictive of personal motivation. Those who prioritized climate change as a safety issue and those driven by a desire to protect current and future generations had higher levels of personal motivation, post-intervention. Knowledge of climate change increased, psychosocial factors as barriers to climate action decreased, and preferences for personal mitigating actions shifted towards more impactful choices post-intervention. Holding Egalitarian worldviews significantly predicted climate action motivation. CONCLUSION: Presenting climate change and climate action strategies via a traditional health and safety risk management context was effective in increasing personal motivation for climate action. This study contributes to the literature on climate change communication and climate action motivation.

National Climate Change Risk Assessments to inform adaptation policy priorities and environmental sustainability outcomes: a knowledge systems perspective.

National Climate Change Risk Assessments (CCRAs) have a key role in informing priorities for adaptation policy but face significant challenges due to multiple facets of risk and adaptation. Issues are especially pronounced for meeting goals of environmental sustainability due to the complex dynamics of socio-ecological systems. In practice, a CCRA can therefore differ from its original conceptual blueprint. These challenges are explored from a knowledge systems perspective, focusing on the role of stakeholders/policymakers, risk descriptors, methods, evidence sources, and scientists. A UK case study evaluates recent developments (CCRA3) including identification of policy urgency through adaptation shortfalls and its application to the natural environment. Important science-policy issues are also highlighted regarding inclusion of opportunities, systemic risks, residual risks, and risk tolerance. A general conclusion is that CCRAs inevitably leave open questions which lead back to their evolving role in the science-policy interface. A knowledge systems perspective identifies CCRAs as open, adaptive, reflexive processes that help redefine interpretations of risk and adaptation, rather than just providing a specific policy-relevant product. This perspective identifies scope for progressive refinement of CCRAs to enhance collective science-policy adaptive capacity whilst also engaging wider society. For environmental sustainability, this open process can be used to iteratively redefine robust future pathways and system reference conditions that also better reflect evolving societal perceptions and tolerance on sustainability risk in the face of climate change.

Factors Associated with Pro-Environmental Behaviors in Israel: A Comparison between Participants with and without a Chronic Disease.

This study examined differences regarding climate change pro-environmental behaviors (PEBs), comparing between individuals with chronic diseases and those without. A cross-sectional survey was conducted among 402 adults, of whom 25% had a chronic disease. Participants completed measures for PEBs, climate change exposure (i.e., exposure to its effects), climate change risk appraisal, environmental self-efficacy, collective efficacy, and sociodemographic variables. Results revealed a significant difference between participants with and without chronic diseases in climate change risk appraisal. Having a chronic disease was associated with higher climate change risk appraisal (ß = 0.16, p < 0.001), which in turn was associated with higher collective efficacy (ß = 0.29, p < 0.001). The latter was associated with more PEBs (ß = 0.10, p = 0.049). Furthermore, higher climate change exposure was associated with higher climate change risk appraisal (ß = 0.49, p < 0.001), which in turn was associated with collective efficacy (ß = 0.29, p < 0.001). The latter was associated with more PEBs (ß = 0.10, p = 0.049). In addition, higher climate change exposure was directly associated with both self-efficacy (ß = 0.33, p < 0.001) and collective efficacy (ß = 0.10, p = 0.049), which in turn were associated with more PEBs (ß = 0.28, p < 0.001 and ß = 0.10, p = 0.049, respectively). This study highlights the need to provide efficacy-enhancing information in climate change messaging for PEBs in general. A threat component in environment-relevant messages for people with chronic diseases, specifically, should also be adopted.

Better Understanding Insurance Mechanism in Dealing with Climate Change Risk, with Special Reference to China.

Climate change risk has become an important challenge for global sustainable development. The insurance industry can play an important role in coping with the increasingly severe climate change risk. This paper first describes the increasing climate change risk and the difficulties of the insurance mechanism in dealing with it. Then this paper summarizes the international practice of using the insurance mechanism to deal with climate change risk from ten different aspects. Based on the summary of the role of the insurance mechanism in dealing with this risk in developing countries, this paper puts forward the main application areas for climate change risk insurance and discusses the policy implications of developing climate change risk insurance in China.

Perceptions of climate change and occupational heat stress risks and adaptation strategies of mining workers in Ghana.

Heavy physical workload for long hours coupled with increasing workplace heat exposure due to rising temperatures stemming from climate change, especially where there are inadequate prevention and control policies, adversely affect workers' health and safety, productive capacity and social well-being. However, variations in workers' concerns and awareness of occupational heat stress and climate change risks impede the effectiveness of heat stress management. A mixed method approach was used to assess climate change perceptions and occupational heat stress risks and adaptation strategies of Ghanaian mining workers. Questionnaires and focus group discussions were used to collect data from 320 respondents. Quantitative and qualitative approaches were used for data analysis. Workers' climate change risk perception, as confirmed by trends in climate data, was reasonable, but concerns about climate change effects and workplace heat exposure risks varied significantly across types of mining activity (p < 0.001). Workers experienced heat-related morbidities, but the variation in heat-related morbidity experiences across the type of mining activity was not significant. However, the type of heat-related morbidities experienced by workers differed across the type of mining activity (p < 0.001). Workers' awareness of occupational heat stress prevention and control was adequate. The disparities in workers' awareness and use of the prevention and control measures significantly differed across the type of mining activity (p < 0.001). Occupational heat stress prevention activities should focus on workers, and a concerted effort must be made to promote workers' adaptive capacity and inform policy decisions.

Evaluation of wearable sensors for physiologic monitoring of individually experienced temperatures in outdoor workers in southeastern U.S.

Climate-related increases in global mean temperature and the intensification of heat waves present a significant threat to outdoor workers. Limited research has been completed to assess the potential differences in heat exposures that exist between individuals within similar microenvironments. Yet, there is a paucity of individual data characterizing patterns of individually experienced temperatures in workers and the associated physiologic heat strain response. The objective of this study was to apply a wearable sensor-based approach to examine the occupational, environmental, and behavioral factors that contribute to individual-level variations in heat strain in grounds maintenance workers. Outdoor workers from three diverse climatic locations in the southeastern United States - high temperature, high temperature + high humidity, and moderate temperature environments - participated in personal heat exposure monitoring during a 5-day work period in the summer. We performed Cox proportional hazards modeling to estimate associations between multiple heat strain events per worker and changes in individually experienced temperatures. Heat strain risk was higher among workers with a place to cool-off, higher education, and who worked in hotter temperatures. A mismatch was observed between workers' perceptions of heat strain and actual heat strain prevalence across exposure groups. We also used a quasi-Poisson regression with distributed lag non-linear function to estimate the non-linear and lag effects of individually experienced temperatures on risk of heat strain. The association between increasing temperature and heat strain was nonlinear and exhibited an U-shaped relationship. Heat strain was less common during issued heat warnings demonstrating behavioral adaptive actions taken by workers. This study is one of the first temperature monitoring studies to quantify the individual-level exposure-response function in this vulnerable population and highlights the elevated risk of heat strain both immediately and several days after worker exposure to high temperatures.