Quantifying risk of early relapse in patients with first demyelinating events: Prediction in clinical practice.

BACKGROUND: Characteristics at clinically isolated syndrome (CIS) examination assist in identification of patient at highest risk of early second attack and could benefit the most from early disease-modifying drugs (DMDs). OBJECTIVE: To examine determinants of second attack and validate a prognostic nomogram for individualised risk assessment of clinical conversion. METHODS: Patients with CIS were prospectively followed up in the MSBase Incident Study. Predictors of clinical conversion were analysed using Cox proportional hazards regression. Prognostic nomograms were derived to calculate conversion probability and validated using concordance indices. RESULTS: A total of 3296 patients from 50 clinics in 22 countries were followed up for a median (inter-quartile range (IQR)) of 1.92 years (0.90, 3.71). In all, 1953 (59.3%) patients recorded a second attack. Higher Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) at baseline, first symptom location, oligoclonal bands and various brain and spinal magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) metrics were all predictors of conversion. Conversely, older age and DMD exposure post-CIS were associated with reduced rates. Prognostic nomograms demonstrated high concordance between estimated and observed conversion probabilities. CONCLUSION: This multinational study shows that age at CIS onset, DMD exposure, EDSS, multiple brain and spinal MRI criteria and oligoclonal bands are associated with shorter time to relapse. Nomogram assessment may be useful in clinical practice for estimating future clinical conversion.

Paediatric clinically isolated syndromes: report of seven cases, differential diagnosis and literature review.

PURPOSE: Few paediatric cases of clinically isolated syndrome (CIS) have been described in literature, even though it has been increasingly recognized also in this age group. Our study retrospectively enrolled seven Italian patients (four males and three females) who met the International Paediatric Multiple Sclerosis Study Group (IPMSSG) 2012 criteria for clinically isolated syndrome over the period 2010-2014; their clinical, laboratory and imaging findings were compared with current literature and with those seen in five patients (three males and two females) with acute disseminated encephalomyelitis, who were followed in our department over the same years (mean follow-up time 2.84 ± 1.8 years). RESULTS: In our CIS sample, male sex was prevalent, 42.8 % of patients had a multifocal presentation, MRI lesions mostly appeared confluent and with poorly defined margins, and CSF oligoclonal bands (OCBs) were identified in 28.6 %. All acute disseminated encephalomyelitis (ADEM) patients had polyfocal presentation and encephalopathy; large MRI subcortical lesions and polyclonal IgG distribution were identified. During the subsequent follow-up assessments, MRI scan revealed new lesions in three CIS patients, while in ADEM children it appeared normal. CONCLUSIONS: Paediatric CIS patients often show peculiar epidemiological, clinical and radiological features, which significantly differ from adult ones. The presence of encephalopathy and of extended MRI lesions leads to a diagnosis of ADEM, instead. In CIS patients the presence of multiple asymptomatic MRI lesions and of OCBs revealed to be the most predictive risk factors for progression to clinically definite multiple sclerosis (CDMS), so a regular long-term follow-up is recommended; in ADEM, no suitable risk factors for a relapse could be identified.

Conversion from clinically isolated syndrome to multiple sclerosis: A large multicentre study.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: We explored which clinical and biochemical variables predict conversion from clinically isolated syndrome (CIS) to clinically definite multiple sclerosis (CDMS) in a large international cohort. METHODS: Thirty-three centres provided serum samples from 1047 CIS cases with at least two years' follow-up. Age, sex, clinical presentation, T2-hyperintense lesions, cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) oligoclonal bands (OCBs), CSF IgG index, CSF cell count, serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D3 (25-OH-D), cotinine and IgG titres against Epstein-Barr nuclear antigen 1 (EBNA-1) and cytomegalovirus were tested for association with risk of CDMS. RESULTS: At median follow-up of 4.31 years, 623 CIS cases converted to CDMS. Predictors of conversion in multivariable analyses were OCB (HR = 2.18, 95% CI = 1.71-2.77, p < 0.001), number of T2 lesions (two to nine lesions vs 0/1 lesions: HR = 1.97, 95% CI = 1.52-2.55, p < 0.001; >9 lesions vs 0/1 lesions: HR = 2.74, 95% CI = 2.04-3.68, p < 0.001) and age at CIS (HR per year inversely increase = 0.98, 95% CI = 0.98-0.99, p < 0.001). Lower 25-OH-D levels were associated with CDMS in univariable analysis, but this was attenuated in the multivariable model. OCB positivity was associated with higher EBNA-1 IgG titres. CONCLUSIONS: We validated MRI lesion load, OCB and age at CIS as the strongest independent predictors of conversion to CDMS in this multicentre setting. A role for vitamin D is suggested but requires further investigation.

Effects of early treatment with glatiramer acetate in patients with clinically isolated syndrome.

BACKGROUND: The placebo-controlled phase of the PreCISe study showed that glatiramer acetate delayed onset of clinically definite multiple sclerosis (CDMS) in patients with clinically isolated syndrome and brain lesions on MRI. OBJECTIVE: To compare the effects of early versus delayed glatiramer acetate treatment in the open-label phase of PreCISe. METHODS: Patients with a clinically isolated syndrome suggestive of MS with unifocal manifestation and ≥2 T2-weighted brain lesions were randomized to receive glatiramer acetate 20 mg/d (early-treatment, n=198) or placebo (delayed-treatment, n=211) for 36 months or until conversion to CDMS, followed by open-label glatiramer acetate treatment for two years. RESULTS: Early glatiramer acetate treatment reduced CDMS conversion risk by 41% (hazard ratio 0.59, 95% confidence interval 0.44-0.80; p=0.0005) versus delayed-treatment, and was associated with a 972-day delay (185%) in conversion to CDMS, less brain atrophy (-28%, p=0.0209), fewer new T2 lesions/year (-42%, <0.0001) and lower T2 lesion volume (-22%, p=0.0005) versus delayed treatment. Adverse events were consistent with the established safety profile of glatiramer acetate. CONCLUSIONS: Effects of early glatiramer acetate treatment on the rate of conversion to CDMS and on MRI measures of disease activity and lesion burden support initiating glatiramer acetate treatment soon after the first clinical symptoms suggestive of MS and continuing treatment to sustain benefits.

Long-term outcomes with teriflunomide in patients with clinically isolated syndrome: Results of the TOPIC extension study☠☠.

BACKGROUND: In the phase 3 TOPIC study, teriflunomide significantly reduced the risk of relapse determining conversion to clinically definite multiple sclerosis (CDMS) in patients with clinically isolated syndrome, versus placebo. We assessed clinical and safety outcomes associated with extended teriflunomide treatment in the TOPIC extension study. METHODS: Patients who completed the TOPIC core study (including those still on study at early termination) or converted to CDMS after at least 24 weeks in the core study were eligible to participate in the extension. The primary efficacy endpoint in the extension was time to conversion to CDMS. RESULTS: Risk of relapse determining conversion to CDMS was 47.1% lower in patients treated with teriflunomide 14 mg during the core and extension studies compared with patients treated with placebo during the core study and teriflunomide 14 mg during the extension. The incidence of adverse events was 75.8% and 81.9% for 7 and 14 mg teriflunomide, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Reduced risk of relapse determining conversion to CDMS in patients with early MS receiving teriflunomide 14 mg in the core study remained throughout the extension supporting the benefits of early treatment. No new safety signals were observed for teriflunomide 7 or 14 mg.

The efficacy of cladribine tablets in CIS patients retrospectively assigned the diagnosis of MS using modern criteria: Results from the ORACLE-MS study.

BACKGROUND: Multiple sclerosis (MS) diagnostic criteria have changed since the ORACLE-MS study was conducted; 223 of 616 patients (36.2%) would have met the diagnosis of MS vs clinically isolated syndrome (CIS) using the newer criteria. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this paper is to assess the effect of cladribine tablets in patients with a first clinical demyelinating attack fulfilling newer criteria (McDonald 2010) for MS vs CIS. METHODS: A post hoc analysis for subgroups of patients retrospectively classified as fulfilling or not fulfilling newer criteria at the first clinical demyelinating attack was conducted. RESULTS: Cladribine tablets 3.5 mg/kg (n = 68) reduced the risk of next attack or three-month confirmed Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) worsening by 74% vs placebo (n = 72); p = 0.0009 in patients meeting newer criteria for MS at baseline. Cladribine tablets 5.25 mg/kg (n = 83) reduced the risk of next attack or three-month confirmed EDSS worsening by 37%, but nominal significance was not reached (p = 0.14). In patients who were still CIS after applying newer criteria, cladribine tablets 3.5 mg/kg (n = 138) reduced the risk of conversion to clinically definite multiple sclerosis (CDMS) by 63% vs placebo (n = 134); p = 0.0003. Cladribine tablets 5.25 mg/kg (n = 121) reduced the risk of conversion by 75% vs placebo (n = 134); p < 0.0001. CONCLUSIONS: Regardless of the criteria used to define CIS or MS, 3.5 mg/kg cladribine tablets are effective in patients with a first clinical demyelinating attack. ClinicalTrials.gov registration: The ORACLE-MS study (NCT00725985).

Vertebral hemangiomas in the thoracic spine of multiple sclerosis patients are connected with fewer demyelinating lesions at the same level. Possible impact on pathophysiology and clinical course.

OBJECTIVES: Mechanisms of angiogenesis regulate multiple sclerosis (MS) lesions' evolution, displaying both neuroprotective and harmful effects. Factors traditionally considered as purely angiogenic, like vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF), exert complex heterogenous actions on both neural and vascular malformation-derived tissues. Aim of this retrospective study was to examine, for the first time, potential associations between the presence of common vascular malformations, like vertebral hemangiomas (VHs), and several clinico-radiological MS parameters. METHODS: 236 MS patients who were followed in our Outpatient Clinic were recruited in this study. Outcome measures concerned demographics, disease-derived variables, and MS-lesions' distribution in VHs - positive and negative patients. All data were collected retrospectively. Potential correlations were assessed with univariate statistical analyses (p = 0.05), followed by multivariate regression models, for purposes of confounder-effects elimination. RESULTS: VH presence showed significant negative correlations with presence of MS lesions in the thoracic (p = 0.005 for thoracic VHs), but not the cervical cord. Trends towards negative associations of VH presence with subtentorial MS lesions and positive family history for MS were also observed. DISCUSSION: Our observations suggest that VH presence may reduce the risk of thoracic demyelinating lesions in MS patients. They could be explained as part of a multifaceted angiogenic process, concomitantly enhancing neural repair and abnormal hemangioma vascularization.

ATON: results from a Phase II randomized trial of the B-cell-targeting agent atacicept in patients with optic neuritis.

The 36-week ATON study compared the efficacy and safety of atacicept with matching placebo in 34 patients with unilateral optic neuritis as a clinically isolated syndrome. Atacicept (150mg) was administered twice weekly for 4weeks (loading period), then once weekly for 32weeks. The ATON study was terminated prematurely by the sponsor when an independent Data and Safety Monitoring Board review observed increased multiple sclerosis (MS)-related disease activity in the atacicept arms of the concurrent ATAcicept in MS (ATAMS) study. Analysis of the prematurely terminated ATON study showed that the mean (standard deviation) change from baseline in retinal nerve fiber layer thickness at last observed value in the affected eye was -8.6 (10.1) µm in patients treated with atacicept (n=15) compared with -17.3 (15.2) µm in patients treated with placebo (n=16). In the atacicept treatment group, a higher proportion of patients converted to clinically definite MS during the double-blind period compared with placebo (35.3% [6/17] vs 17.6% [3/17]). Treatment-emergent adverse events were similar across both treatment groups in the double-blind period. A dichotomy emerged with more atacicept-treated patients converting to relapsing-remitting MS compared with placebo-treated patients, despite the same patients experiencing less axonal loss after an optic neuritis event.

Early MRI activity predicts treatment nonresponse with intramuscular interferon beta-1a in clinically isolated syndrome.

OBJECTIVE: Determine whether MRI activity 6 months after treatment initiation in the Controlled High-Risk Subjects Avonex® Multiple Sclerosis Prevention Study (CHAMPS) predicted progression to clinically definite multiple sclerosis (CDMS) over the subsequent 30 months in intramuscular interferon beta-1a (IM IFNß-1a)-treated patients vs placebo-treated patients. METHODS: CHAMPS patients were randomized to once-weekly IM IFNß-1a 30 µg or placebo for up to 36 months. MRI was performed every 6 months until CDMS confirmation. Patient groups were defined based on new T2 and/or Gd+ lesions at 6 months. RESULTS: Thirteen IM IFNß-1a patients (6.7%) and 24 placebo patients (12.6%) developed CDMS prior to month 6 and did not undergo the 6-month MRI. At 6 months, 29.7% of IM IFNß-1a-treated patients vs 40.9% of placebo-treated patients were defined as having high MRI activity levels (≥2 new T2 and/or ≥2 Gd+ lesions). In this subgroup, estimated cumulative probabilities of CDMS were similar between groups (HR=0.88 [0.44-1.77], p=0.7227). A significant treatment response was seen for patients with <2 new T2 and <2 Gd+ lesions at 6 months (HR=0.39 [0.19-0.82], p=0.0120). CONCLUSION: MRI scans 6 months after IM IFNß-1a initiation in CIS patients predict early treatment non-response. Standardized scanning and monitoring may facilitate early disease management.