Historical plant introductions predict current insect invasions.

Thousands of insect species have been introduced outside of their native ranges, and some of them strongly impact ecosystems and human societies. Because a large fraction of insects feed on or are associated with plants, nonnative plants provide habitat and resources for invading insects, thereby facilitating their establishment. Furthermore, plant imports represent one of the main pathways for accidental nonnative insect introductions. Here, we tested the hypothesis that plant invasions precede and promote insect invasions. We found that geographical variation in current nonnative insect flows was best explained by nonnative plant flows dating back to 1900 rather than by more recent plant flows. Interestingly, nonnative plant flows were a better predictor of insect invasions than potentially confounding socioeconomic variables. Based on the observed time lag between plant and insect invasions, we estimated that the global insect invasion debt consists of 3,442 region-level introductions, representing a potential increase of 35% of insect invasions. This debt was most important in the Afrotropics, the Neotropics, and Indomalaya, where we expect a 10 to 20-fold increase in discoveries of new nonnative insect species. Overall, our results highlight the strong link between plant and insect invasions and show that limiting the spread of nonnative plants might be key to preventing future invasions of both plants and insects.

Plant canopies promote climatic disequilibrium in Mediterranean recruit communities.

Current rates of climate change are exceeding the capacity of many plant species to track climate, thus leading communities to be in disequilibrium with climatic conditions. Plant canopies can contribute to this disequilibrium by buffering macro-climatic conditions and sheltering poorly adapted species to the oncoming climate, particularly in their recruitment stages. Here we analyse differences in climatic disequilibrium between understorey and open ground woody plant recruits in 28 localities, covering more than 100,000 m2 , across an elevation range embedding temperature and aridity gradients in the southern Iberian Peninsula. This study demonstrates higher climatic disequilibrium under canopies compared with open ground, supporting that plant canopies would affect future community climatic lags by allowing the recruitment of less arid-adapted species in warm and dry conditions, but also it endorse that canopies could favour warm-adapted species in extremely cold environments as mountain tops, thus pre-adapting communities living in these habitats to climate change.

Regional invasion history and land use shape the prevalence of non-native species in local assemblages.

The ecological impact of non-native species arises from their establishment in local assemblages. However, the rates of non-native spread in new regions and their determinants have not been comprehensively studied. Here, we combined global databases documenting the occurrence of non-native species and residence of non-native birds, mammals, and vascular plants at regional and local scales to describe how the likelihood of non-native occurrence and their proportion in local assemblages relate with their residence time and levels of human usage in different ecosystems. Our findings reveal that local non-native occurrence generally increases with residence time. Colonization is most rapid in croplands and urban areas, while it is slower and variable in natural or semi-natural ecosystems. Notably, non-native occurrence continues to rise even 200 years after introduction, especially for birds and vascular plants, and in other land-use types rather than croplands and urban areas. The impact of residence time on non-native proportions is significant only for mammals. We conclude that the continental exchange of biotas requires considerable time for effects to manifest at the local scale across taxa and land-use types. The unpredictability of future impacts, implied by the slow spread of non-native species, strengthens the call for stronger regulations on the exchange of non-native species to reduce the long-lasting invasion debt looming on ecosystems' future.

Concurrent threats and extinction risk in a long-lived, highly fecund vertebrate with parental care.

Detecting declines and quantifying extinction risk of long-lived, highly fecund vertebrates, including fishes, reptiles, and amphibians, can be challenging. In addition to the false notion that large clutches always buffer against population declines, the imperiled status of long-lived species can often be masked by extinction debt, wherein adults persist on the landscape for several years after populations cease to be viable. Here we develop a demographic model for the eastern hellbender (Cryptobranchus alleganiensis), an imperiled aquatic salamander with paternal care. We examined the individual and interactive effects of three of the leading threats hypothesized to contribute to the species' demise: habitat loss due to siltation, high rates of nest failure, and excess adult mortality caused by fishing and harvest. We parameterized the model using data on their life history and reproductive ecology to model the fates of individual nests and address multiple sources of density-dependent mortality under both deterministic and stochastic environmental conditions. Our model suggests that high rates of nest failure observed in the field are sufficient to drive hellbender populations toward a geriatric age distribution and eventually to localized extinction but that this process takes decades. Moreover, the combination of limited nest site availability due to siltation, nest failure, and stochastic adult mortality can interact to increase the likelihood and pace of extinction, which was particularly evident under stochastic scenarios. Density dependence in larval survival and recruitment can severely hamper a population's ability to recover from declines. Our model helps to identify tipping points beyond which extinction becomes certain and management interventions become necessary. Our approach can be generalized to understand the interactive effects of various threats to the extinction risk of other long-lived vertebrates. As we face unprecedented rates of environmental change, holistic approaches incorporating multiple concurrent threats and their impacts on different aspects of life history will be necessary to proactively conserve long-lived species.

Oxygen Debt as Predictor of Mortality and Multiple Organ Dysfunction Syndrome in Severe COVID-19 Patients: A Retrospective Study.

Background: Oxygen debt (DEOx) represents the disparity between resting and shock oxygen consumption (VO2) and is associated with metabolic insufficiency, acidosis, severity, and mortality. This study aimed to assess the reliability of DEOx as an indirect quantitative measure for predicting multiple organ dysfunction syndrome (MODS) and 28-day mortality in patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) with respiratory syndrome severe acute coronavirus type 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection, in comparison to the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II), sepsis-related organ failure assessment (SOFA), and 4C scores. Methods: A retrospective cohort study was conducted, including ICU patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection between 2020 and 2021. Clinical data were extracted from the EPIMED Monitor Database®. APACHE II, SOFA, and 4C scores were calculated upon ICU admission, and their accuracy in predicting 28-day mortality and MODS was compared to DEOx. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to analyze the outcome variables. Results: 708 patients were included, with a mortality rate of 44.4%. DEOx value was 11.16 ml O2/kg. The mean age was 58.7 years. Multivariate analysis showed that DEOx was independently associated with mortality, intubation, and renal injury. Each point increase in creatinine was associated with a higher risk of MODS. To determine the precision of the scores, area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROC) analysis was performed with weak discrimination and similar behavior for the primary outcomes. The most accurate scale for mortality and MODS was 4C with an AUC of 0.683 and APACHE II with an AUC of 0.814, while that of the AUROC of DEOx was 0.612 and 0.646, respectively. Conclusions: DEOx showed similar predictive value to established scoring systems in critically ill patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection. The correlation of DEOx with these scores may facilitate early intervention in critically ill patients.

Long-lasting effects of COVID-19 pandemic on hospitalizations and severity of bronchiolitis.

Bronchiolitis is a common cause of hospitalization in infants. The long-lasting impact of hygiene and social behavior changes during the pandemic on this disease is debated. We investigated the prevalence of hospitalized cases, clinical severity, and underlying risk factors before and during pandemic. The study was conducted in 27 hospitals in Italy and included infants hospitalized for bronchiolitis during the following four periods: July 2018-March 2019, July 2020-March 2021, July 2021-March 2022, and July 2022-March 2023. Data on demographics, neonatal gestational age, breastfeeding history, underlying chronic diseases, presence of older siblings, etiologic agents, clinical course and outcome were collected. A total of 5330 patients were included in the study. Compared to 2018-19 (n = 1618), the number of hospitalizations decreased in 2020-21 (n = 121). A gradual increase was observed in 2021-22 (n = 1577) and 2022-23 (n = 2014). A higher disease severity (need and length of O2-supplementation, need for non-invasive ventilation, hospital stay) occurred in the 2021-22 and, especially, the 2022-23 periods compared to 2018-19. This tendency persisted after adjusting for risk factors associated with bronchiolitis severity.   Conclusions: Compared to adults, COVID-19 in infants is often asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic and rarely results in hospitalization. This study indicates that the pandemic has indirectly induced an increased burden of bronchiolitis among hospitalized infants. This shift, which is not explained by the recognized risk factors, suggests the existence of higher infant vulnerability during the last two seasons. What is known: • The pandemic led to a change in epidemiology of respiratory diseases • Large data on severity of bronchiolitis and underlying risk factors before and during COVID-19 pandemic are scarce What is new: • Compared to pre-pandemic period, hospitalizations for bronchiolitis decreased in 2020-21 and gradually increased in 2021-22 and 2022-23 • Compared to pre-pandemic period, higher disease burden occurred in 2021-22 and, especially, in 2022-23. This tendency persisted after adjusting for risk factors associated with bronchiolitis severity • The interplay among viruses, preventive measures, and the infant health deserves to be further investigated.

Redefining Debt-to-Health, a triple-win health financing instrument in global health.

BACKGROUND: As a recognized win-win-win approach to international debt relief, Debt-to-Health(D2H)has successfully translated debt repayments into investments in health-related projects. Although D2H has experienced modifications and periodic suspension, it has been playing an increasingly important role in resource mobilization in public health, particularly for low-and middle-income countries deep in debt. MAIN TEXT: D2H, as a practical health financing instrument, is not fully evidenced and gauged by academic literature though. We employed a five-step scoping review methodology. After posing questions, we conducted comprehensive literature searches across three databases and one official website to identify relevant studies.We also supplemented our research with expert interviews. Through this review and interviews, we were able to define the concept and structure of D2H, identify stakeholders, and assess its current shortcomings. Finally, we proposed relevant countermeasures and suggestions. CONCLUSION: This paper examines the D2H project's implementation structure and influencing variables, as well as the current research plan's limitations, with a focus on the role health funding institutions have played during the project's whole life. Simultaneously, it examines the interdependencies between debtor nations, creditor nations, and health financing establishments, establishing the groundwork for augmenting and revamping D2H within the ever-changing worldwide context of health development assistance.

Energetics of sinusoidal exercise below and across critical power and the effects of fatigue.

PURPOSE: Previous studies investigating sinusoidal exercise were not devoted to an analysis of its energetics and of the effects of fatigue. We aimed to determine the contribution of aerobic and anaerobic lactic metabolism to the energy balance and investigate the fatigue effects on the cardiorespiratory and metabolic responses to sinusoidal protocols, across and below critical power (CP). METHODS: Eight males (26.6 ± 6.2 years; 75.6 ± 8.7 kg; maximum oxygen uptake 52.8 ± 7.9 ml·min-1·kg-1; CP 218 ± 13 W) underwent exhausting sinusoidal cycloergometric exercises, with sinusoid midpoint (MP) at CP (CPex) and 50 W below CP (CP-50ex). Sinusoid amplitude (AMP) and period were 50 W and 4 min, respectively. MP, AMP, and time-delay (tD) between mechanical and metabolic signals of expiratory ventilation ( V ˙ E ), oxygen uptake ( V ˙ O 2 ), and heart rate ( f H ) were assessed sinusoid-by-sinusoid. Blood lactate ([La-]) and rate of perceived exertion (RPE) were determined at each sinusoid. RESULTS: V ˙ O 2 AMP was 304 ± 11 and 488 ± 36 ml·min-1 in CPex and CP-50ex, respectively. Asymmetries between rising and declining sinusoid phases occurred in CPex (36.1 ± 7.7 vs. 41.4 ± 9.7 s for V ˙ O 2 tD up and tD down, respectively; P < 0.01), with unchanged tDs. V ˙ O 2 MP and RPE increased progressively during CPex. [La-] increased by 2.1 mM in CPex but remained stable during CP-50ex. Anaerobic contribution was larger in CPex than CP-50ex. CONCLUSION: The lower aerobic component during CPex than CP-50ex associated with lactate accumulation explained lower V ˙ O 2 AMP in CPex. The asymmetries in CPex suggest progressive decline of muscle phosphocreatine concentration, leading to fatigue, as witnessed by RPE.

New Noninvasive Method for the Assessment of Central Venous Oxygen Saturations in Critically Ill Patients.

OBJECTIVES: To compare noninvasive external jugular vein oxygen saturations (SjvO2) and central venous oxygen saturation (ScvO2) from a blood sample in patients admitted to the intensive care unit. DESIGN: A prospective, comparative, monocentric clinical trial design was used. SETTING: The study was performed in the Department of Anaesthesiology, Pharmacology, Intensive Care and Emergency Medicine, University Hospitals of Geneva (Switzerland). PARTICIPANTS: A total of 79 patients were enrolled; patients with confirmed COVID-19 infection requiring invasive mechanical ventilation (patients with COVID-19, n = 36) and patients after liver transplantation (posttransplant patients, n = 43). INTERVENTIONS: Simultaneous measurement of SjvO2 by near-infrared spectroscopy and ScvO2 from central venous blood samples using a blood gas analyzer in stable hemodynamic conditions. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: A strong linear correlation was evidenced in both the COVID-19 and posttransplant patient groups between the 2 modalities. The Bland-Altman analysis showed low bias in accordance with low percentage error in both groups (0.57% and 8.09% for patients with COVID-19; 0.00% and 13.72% for posttransplant patients). CONCLUSIONS: Central venous oxygen saturation can be estimated reasonably by the continuous noninvasive measurement of SjvO2 using near-infrared spectroscopy.

Relationship between payment problems and health: A nation-wide register study in Norway.

Previous studies have found a solid correlation between payment problems and health, and a large body of literature has recognised the impact of debt burden on ill health. However, few have looked at the reversed causality-the impact of health on over-indebtedness and payment problems. In this article, we investigate whether or not a person with mental and physical health challenges is more likely to experience debt enforcement, and we take a step further to explore the role of health status on receiving debt settlement for those with severe payment problems. The article uses register data from Statistics Norway, the Norwegian Patient Registry and the Mortgages Registry from 2009 to 2018. When using conditional logistic models and fixed-effects Poisson regressions with a one-year lagged effect, we find that mental disorders significantly contribute to individuals' financial strains, while physical health does not play a substantial role. When integrating the models with dynamic health effects, all health indicators turned out to have substantial impacts, indicating an extended delayed physical health effect on financial outcomes. Poor health leads to increased payment problems, yet individuals facing health challenges have a lower likelihood of receiving necessary assistance in debt settlement. These findings emphasise the need for tailored services to address the financial challenges of debtors with diverse health conditions.

Postpandemic immunity debt of influenza in the USA and England: an interrupted time series study.

OBJECTIVES: The concept of "immunity debt" has gained attention in the public sphere, and some have argued that the recent out-of-season resurgence of respiratory syncytial virus demonstrates the presence of immunity debt. This study investigates the existence of immunity debt in the context of influenza. STUDY DESIGN: Interrupted time series analysis. METHODS: The positivity rate of influenza in the USA and England was gathered from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the UK Health Security Agency. A time series model with an autoregressive approach was used to model the dynamics of positivity rate. Binary indicator variables were included in the model to account for the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and immunity debt. RESULTS: The impact of NPIs and immunity debt on the positivity rate of influenza was found to be statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS: This present work provides evidence supporting the existence of immunity debt in influenza in both the USA and England in the immediate month following the removal of NPIs such as lockdowns and facemask mandates.

The Association of Frequency of Worry About Financial Debt With Substance Use Among Adults in Ontario, Canada.

BACKGROUND: Financial debt and associated stress might increase the risk of substance use problems or exacerbate existing ones. Little evidence is available about the degree of debt stress and its association with substance use. The objective of this study was to examine the associations of the frequency of worry about debt with heavy episodic drinking (HED), daily smoking, e-cigarette use, and cannabis use in the past 30 days. METHODS: Data were utilized from the 2020/2022 Monitor study, a repeated cross-sectional survey of adults 18 years and older in Ontario, Canada. The surveys employed a web-based panel survey of 6038 adults and collected data on debt-related stress, HED, tobacco smoking, e-cigarettes, and cannabis use in the past 30 days. Odds ratios (OR) were estimated from logistic regression models accounting for sociodemographic factors. RESULTS: Overall, 18.4% of respondents reported that they were worried about their debt most or all of the time. Accounting for household income, educational status, employment status, and other factors, the results revealed that there was a dose-response relationship between the frequency of worry about debt and substance use including daily smoking, e-cigarette use, and cannabis use in the past 30 days compared to those who were not worried at all about their debt. Sex differences were also found in the association between worry about debt and e-cigarette use. CONCLUSIONS: The frequency of worry about debt might have an important role in substance use, which suggests that financial well-being is vital in substance use prevention and harm reduction.

Socioeconomic Correlates of Suicidal Ideation in Military Veterans: Examining the Interaction Between Homelessness and Financial Debt.

Studies in veterans have yet to examine interconnections between homelessness, financial debt, and suicidal ideation. We analyzed data from a nationally-representative study conducted in 2021 of low-income U.S. veterans (N = 1,004). Analyses revealed veterans who were younger, male, had a history of criminal arrests, met criteria for posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), reported greater loneliness, or had both a history of homelessness and higher debt were more likely to endorse suicidal ideation. We found an interaction between a history of homelessness and current debt: 40% of veterans with both past homelessness and higher debt reported suicidal ideation, whereas only 10% of veterans with either past homelessness or higher debt reported suicidal ideation. As past homelessness and current debt interacted to increase the odds of suicidal ideation in a national sample of veterans, these results inform policy and clinical decision-making for suicide prevention and in programs serving veterans experiencing homelessness.

The impact of China's carbon emissions trading policy on corporate investment expenditures: Evidence from carbon-intensive industries.

The carbon emissions trading (CET) policy internalises the cost of carbon emission reductions borne by companies, which will affect the companies' investment and management decisions. From a micro perspective, this paper analyzes the impact on company investment expenditure and its transmission mechanism by implementing the CET policy. Based on panel data of China's A-share listed companies from eight carbon-intensive industries spanning 2010 to 2020, the time-varying difference-in-difference model and its extended model are used to evaluate the impact of the policy in the pilot areas. The results show that: first, based on the cost effect and legality theories, CET policy can reduce the investment expenditure of the companies by 71.95%. Second, CET policy reduces corporate investment expenditures by increasing corporate debt financing costs. When debt financing costs increase by 120.25%, the investment expenditures will reduce by 2.56% indirectly while the intermediary effect of equity financing costs is not significant. Finally, with the implementation of CET policy, the inhibitory effect on corporate investment expenditures has gradually increased. CET policy has a more significant inhibitory effect on investment expenditures of nonstate-owned companies and small-scale companies. The results have passed the robustness test and provide evidence for the policy-maker to balance microeconomic entity development and carbon reduction, and for companies to make optimization investment and financing decisions in response to policy shocks effectively.

The development of racial wealth gaps in early adulthood.

While much research has documented stark racial gaps in total net worth, few studies have examined the development of racial gaps across different types of assets using longitudinal data. Drawing on data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (1997), we study the emergence of Black-White and Hispanic-White wealth gaps across different types of assets and debt among a recent cohort of young adults. We find that the gaps in net worth, financial assets, home equity, and debt all increase over time. The racial gaps in financial assets widen at a rate that exceeds the corresponding gaps in other components of net worth. Indeed, a decomposition analysis reveals that financial assets contribute more than home equity to exacerbating net worth disparities. Our findings underscore the unique role that financial assets play in expanding racial wealth gaps in young adulthood.

The effects of debt dependence on economic growth in less-developed countries, 1990-2019.

Recent years have witnessed a dramatic increase in debt servicing for developing countries. Drawing on the theoretical insights of dependency theory, I investigate the relationship between debt dependence and economic growth in less-developed countries. Results from two-way fixed effects estimation of an expansive country-level dataset on 103 less-developed countries from 1990 to 2019 indicate that debt dependence exerts a harmful effect on economic growth, net of relevant statistical controls. I conclude by discussing the theoretical and policy implications of the empirical analyses.

Medical Student Debt and the US Infectious Diseases Workforce.

Student debt in the United States is at historically high levels and poses an excessive burden on medical graduates. Studies suggest that financial limitations dissuade some medical trainees from pursuing careers in infectious diseases (ID) and other cognitive specialties, despite their interest in the subject matter. Addressing student debt may have a transformative impact on ID recruitment, diversification of the ID workforce, and contributions of ID physicians to underserved public health needs. Relief of student debt also has the potential to narrow the racial wealth gap because nonwhite students are more likely to finance their postsecondary education, including medical school, with student loans, yet they have a lower earning potential following graduation. An executive order from the Biden-Harris administration announced in August 2022 presents a first step toward student debt relief, but the policy would need to be expanded in volume and scope to effectively achieve these goals.

Pursuing a Career in Pediatrics: Intersection of Educational Debt and Race/Ethnicity.

OBJECTIVES: To examine the associations among pediatric trainees' self-reported race/ethnicity, educational debt, and other factors for pursuing a pediatrics career. STUDY DESIGN: Cross-sectional study using data from the American Board of Pediatrics In-training Examination Post-examination Survey years 2018-2020 of categorical pediatric interns. Independent variable of interest was race/ethnicity. Classifications used were White, Hispanic/Latinx, Black/African American, Asian, and other/multiracial. The primary dependent variable was educational debt; secondary dependent variables included the importance of personal, professional, and financial factors in selecting a pediatric career. Means with 95% CIs were computed to summarize scores regarding a factor's importance. Chi-square tests of homogeneity and one-way ANOVA F tests were used to compare proportions and means of dependent variables across levels of self-reported race/ethnicity. RESULTS: A total of 11 150 (91.5%) completed the survey. Of the final analytical sample (7 943), approximately 6.3% self-identified as Black/African American, 8.2% as Hispanic/Latinx, 22% as Asian, and 55% as White; 44% reported >$200 000 of debt. Overall, 33% of those identifying as Black/African American had >$300 000 in educational debt. The highest ranked career factor was interest in a specific disease/patient population. The importance of educational debt in career choices was highest among those identifying as Black/African American, followed by Asians and Hispanic/Latinx. Among all races/ethnicities, the importance of mentorship decreased with higher educational debt. CONCLUSION: Among individuals pursuing pediatrics, the intersection of race/ethnicity and debt may influence trainees' pursuit of pediatric careers. Educational debt negatively impacts the importance of mentorship.

Calling time on alien plantscapes.

Both urban and rural environments around the globe have become dominated by alien plant species to the extent that plantscapes from one region or country have become difficult to distinguish from many others. This process of plant community homogenisation comes at a cost to cultural identity and undermines people's sense of place. Although invasive alien plant species have received considerable attention in recent decades, issues with non-invasive alien plant species have largely been ignored, and yet they contribute significantly to biotic homogeneity and impose an ever accumulating invasion debt: a debt that increases in proportion with their population sizes. By contrast, an abundance of native species in the places where people live is important for strengthening commitment to biodiversity conservation. Is there therefore sufficient evidence of harm from increasing numbers of non-invasive alien plants to justify local and central governments introducing measures to substantially reduce the proportion of non-invasive aliens in both urban and rural environments?

The Association of Childbirth with Medical Debt in the USA, 2019-2020.

BACKGROUND: Medical debt affects one in five adults in the USA and may disproportionately burden postpartum women due to pregnancy-related medical costs. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the association between childbirth and medical debt, and the correlates of medical debt among postpartum women, in the USA. DESIGN: Cross-sectional. PARTICIPANTS: We analyzed female "sample adults" 18-49 years old in the 2019-2020 National Health Interview Survey, a nationally representative household survey. MAIN MEASURES: Our primary exposure was whether the subject gave birth in the past year. We had two family-level debt outcomes: problems paying medical bills and inability to pay medical bills. We examined the association between live birth and medical debt outcomes, unadjusted and adjusted for potential confounders in multivariable logistic regressions. Among postpartum women, we also examined the association between medical debt with maternal asthma, hypertension, and gestational diabetes and several sociodemographic factors. KEY RESULTS: Our sample included n = 12,163 women, n = 645 with a live birth in the past year. Postpartum women were younger, more likely to have Medicaid, and lived in larger families than those not postpartum. 19.8% of postpartum women faced difficulty with medical bills versus 15.1% who were not; in multivariable regression, postpartum women had 48% higher adjusted odds of medical debt problems (95% CI 1.13, 1.92). Results were similar when examining inability to pay medical bills, and similar differences were seen for privately insured women. Among postpartum women, those with lower incomes and with asthma or gestational diabetes, but not hypertension, had significantly higher adjusted odds of medical debt problems. CONCLUSIONS: Postpartum women experience higher levels of medical debt than other women; poorer women and those with common chronic diseases may have an even higher burden. Policies to expand and improve health coverage for this population are needed to improve maternal health and the welfare of young families.