Comparative Effectiveness and Cost-Effectiveness of Colorectal Cancer Screening With Blood-Based Biomarkers (Liquid Biopsy) vs Fecal Tests or Colonoscopy.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Colorectal cancer (CRC) screening is highly effective but underused. Blood-based biomarkers (liquid biopsy) could improve screening participation. METHODS: Using our established Markov model, screening every 3 years with a blood-based test that meets minimum Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services' thresholds (CMSmin) (CRC sensitivity 74%, specificity 90%) was compared with established alternatives. Test attributes were varied in sensitivity analyses. RESULTS: CMSmin reduced CRC incidence by 40% and CRC mortality by 52% vs no screening. These reductions were less profound than the 68%-79% and 73%-81%, respectively, achieved with multi-target stool DNA (Cologuard; Exact Sciences) every 3 years, annual fecal immunochemical testing (FIT), or colonoscopy every 10 years. Assuming the same cost as multi-target stool DNA, CMSmin cost $28,500/quality-adjusted life-year gained vs no screening, but FIT, colonoscopy, and multi-target stool DNA were less costly and more effective. CMSmin would match FIT's clinical outcomes if it achieved 1.4- to 1.8-fold FIT's participation rate. Advanced precancerous lesion (APL) sensitivity was a key determinant of a test's effectiveness. A paradigm-changing blood-based test (sensitivity >90% for CRC and 80% for APL; 90% specificity; cost ≤$120-$140) would be cost-effective vs FIT at comparable participation. CONCLUSIONS: CMSmin could contribute to CRC control by achieving screening in those who will not use established methods. Substituting blood-based testing for established effective CRC screening methods will require higher CRC and APL sensitivities that deliver programmatic benefits matching those of FIT. High APL sensitivity, which can result in CRC prevention, should be a top priority for screening test developers. APL detection should not be penalized by a definition of test specificity that focuses on CRC only.

Accuracy and reliability of forensic handwriting comparisons.

Forensic handwriting examination involves the comparison of writing samples by forensic document examiners (FDEs) to determine whether or not they were written by the same person. Here we report the results of a large-scale study conducted to assess the accuracy and reliability of handwriting comparison conclusions. Eighty-six practicing FDEs each conducted up to 100 handwriting comparisons, resulting in 7,196 conclusions on 180 distinct comparison sets, using a five-level conclusion scale. Erroneous "written by" conclusions (false positives) were reached in 3.1% of the nonmated comparisons, while 1.1% of the mated comparisons yielded erroneous "not written by" conclusions (false negatives). False positive rates were markedly higher for nonmated samples written by twins (8.7%) compared to nontwins (2.5%). Notable associations between training and performance were observed: FDEs with less than 2 y of formal training generally had higher error rates, but they also had higher true positive and true negative rates because they tended to provide more definitive conclusions; FDEs with at least 2 y of formal training were less likely to make definitive conclusions, but those definitive conclusions they made were more likely to be correct (higher positive predictive and negative predictive values). We did not observe any association between writing style (cursive vs. printing) and rates of errors or incorrect conclusions. This report also provides details on the repeatability and reproducibility of conclusions, and reports how conclusions are affected by the quantity of writing and the similarity of content.

Long-term benefits and harms of early colorectal cancer screening in German individuals with familial cancer risk.

Individuals with a family history of colorectal cancer (CRC) may benefit from early screening with colonoscopy or immunologic fecal occult blood testing (iFOBT). We systematically evaluated the benefit-harm trade-offs of various screening strategies differing by screening test (colonoscopy or iFOBT), interval (iFOBT: annual/biennial; colonoscopy: 10-yearly) and age at start (30, 35, 40, 45, 50 and 55 years) and end of screening (65, 70 and 75 years) offered to individuals identified with familial CRC risk in Germany. A Markov-state-transition model was developed and used to estimate health benefits (CRC-related deaths avoided, life-years gained [LYG]), potential harms (eg, associated with additional colonoscopies) and incremental harm-benefit ratios (IHBR) for each strategy. Both benefits and harms increased with earlier start and shorter intervals of screening. When screening started before age 50, 32-36 CRC-related deaths per 1000 persons were avoided with colonoscopy and 29-34 with iFOBT screening, compared to 29-31 (colonoscopy) and 28-30 (iFOBT) CRC-related deaths per 1000 persons when starting age 50 or older, respectively. For iFOBT screening, the IHBRs expressed as additional colonoscopies per LYG were one (biennial, age 45-65 vs no screening), four (biennial, age 35-65), six (biennial, age 30-70) and 34 (annual, age 30-54; biennial, age 55-75). Corresponding IHBRs for 10-yearly colonoscopy were four (age 55-65), 10 (age 45-65), 15 (age 35-65) and 29 (age 30-70). Offering screening with colonoscopy or iFOBT to individuals with familial CRC risk before age 50 is expected to be beneficial. Depending on the accepted IHBR threshold, 10-yearly colonoscopy or alternatively biennial iFOBT from age 30 to 70 should be recommended for this target group.

Economic evaluation of weight loss and transplantation strategies for kidney transplant candidates with obesity.

Novel antiobesity medications, particularly glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RAs), have expanded weight loss (WL) options for kidney transplantation (KT) candidates with obesity beyond lifestyle modifications and bariatric surgery. However, varying effectiveness, risk profiles, and costs make strategy choices challenging. To aid decision-making, we used a Markov model to examine the cost-effectiveness of different WL strategies over a 10-year horizon. A target WL of 15% of total body weight was used for the base case scenario, and we compared these strategies to a "liberal" KT strategy of transplanting candidates with obesity. Outcomes included costs (2023 US dollars), quality-adjusted life years, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios. In analysis, a liberal KT strategy was favored over lifestyle modifications and GLP-1RAs. Among WL strategies, bariatric surgery was the most effective and cost the least, whereas lifestyle modification had the highest cumulative costs and was the least effective. Compared to liberal KT, bariatric surgery costs $45 859 per quality-adjusted life year gained. GLP-1RAs were favored over bariatric surgery only when drug costs were below $5000 per year (base cost $12 077). In conclusion, for KT candidates with obesity, a liberal KT strategy and bariatric surgery are preferred over lifestyle modifications alone and GLP-1RAs based on outcomes and cost-effectiveness.

Development and initial evaluation of a clinical prediction model for risk of treatment resistance in first-episode psychosis: Schizophrenia Prediction of Resistance to Treatment (SPIRIT).

BACKGROUND: A clinical tool to estimate the risk of treatment-resistant schizophrenia (TRS) in people with first-episode psychosis (FEP) would inform early detection of TRS and overcome the delay of up to 5 years in starting TRS medication. AIMS: To develop and evaluate a model that could predict the risk of TRS in routine clinical practice. METHOD: We used data from two UK-based FEP cohorts (GAP and AESOP-10) to develop and internally validate a prognostic model that supports identification of patients at high-risk of TRS soon after FEP diagnosis. Using sociodemographic and clinical predictors, a model for predicting risk of TRS was developed based on penalised logistic regression, with missing data handled using multiple imputation. Internal validation was undertaken via bootstrapping, obtaining optimism-adjusted estimates of the model's performance. Interviews and focus groups with clinicians were conducted to establish clinically relevant risk thresholds and understand the acceptability and perceived utility of the model. RESULTS: We included seven factors in the prediction model that are predominantly assessed in clinical practice in patients with FEP. The model predicted treatment resistance among the 1081 patients with reasonable accuracy; the model's C-statistic was 0.727 (95% CI 0.723-0.732) prior to shrinkage and 0.687 after adjustment for optimism. Calibration was good (expected/observed ratio: 0.999; calibration-in-the-large: 0.000584) after adjustment for optimism. CONCLUSIONS: We developed and internally validated a prediction model with reasonably good predictive metrics. Clinicians, patients and carers were involved in the development process. External validation of the tool is needed followed by co-design methodology to support implementation in early intervention services.

Development of a Value Assessment Framework for Pediatric Health Technologies Using Multicriteria Decision Analysis: Expanding the Value Lens for Funding Decision Making.

OBJECTIVES: A health technology assessment (HTA) does not systematically account for the circumstances and needs of children and youth. To supplement HTA processes, we aimed to develop a child-tailored value assessment framework using a multicriteria decision analysis approach. METHODS: We constructed a multicriteria-decision-analysis-based model in multiple phases to create the Comprehensive Assessment of Technologies for Child Health (CATCH) framework. Using a modified Delphi process with stakeholders having broad disciplinary and geographic variation (N = 23), we refined previously generated criteria and developed rank-based weights. We established a criterion-pertinent scoring rubric for assessing incremental benefits of new drugs. Three clinicians independently assessed comprehension by pilotscoring 9 drugs. We then validated CATCH for 2 childhood cancer therapies through structured deliberation with an expert panel (N = 10), obtaining individual scores, consensus scores, and verbal feedback. Analyses included descriptive statistics, thematic analysis, exploratory disagreement indices, and sensitivity analysis. RESULTS: The modified Delphi process yielded 10 criteria, based on absolute importance/relevance and agreed importance (median disagreement indices = 0.34): Effectiveness, Child-specific Health-related Quality of Life, Disease Severity, Unmet Need, Therapeutic Safety, Equity, Family Impacts, Life-course Development, Rarity, and Fair Share of Life. Pilot scoring resulted in adjusted criteria definitions and more precise score-scaling guidelines. Validation panelists endorsed the framework's key modifiers of value. Modes of their individual prescores aligned closely with deliberative consensus scores. CONCLUSIONS: We iteratively developed a value assessment framework that captures dimensions of child-specific health and nonhealth gains. CATCH could improve the richness and relevance of HTA decision making for children in Canada and comparable health systems.

Development of a Prioritization Framework to Aid Healthcare Funding Decision Making in Health Technology Assessment in Australia: Application of Multicriteria Decision Analysis.

OBJECTIVES: This study develops a prioritization framework to aid healthcare funding decision making in health technology assessment (HTA) in Australia using a multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA) approach. METHODS: MCDA frameworks for HTAs were reviewed through literature survey to identify the initial criteria and levels within each criterion. Key stakeholders and experts were consulted to confirm these criteria and levels. A conjoint analysis using 1000Minds was undertaken with policy makers from the Department of Health to establish ranking criteria and weighting scores. Monte Carlo simulations were used to examine the sensitivity of findings to factors affecting the ranking and weighting scores. The MCDA was then applied to 6 examples of chronic care models or technologies projects to demonstrate the performance of this approach. RESULTS: Five criteria (clinical efficacy/effectiveness, safety and tolerability, severity of the condition, quality/uncertainty, and direct impact on healthcare costs) were consistently ranked highest by healthcare decision makers. Among the criteria, patient-level health outcomes were considered the most important, followed by social and ethical values. The analyses were robust to inform the uncertainty in the parameter. CONCLUSIONS: This study has developed an MCDA tool that effectively integrates key priorities for HTA reviews, reflecting the values and preferences of healthcare stakeholders in Australia. Although this tool aims to align the assessment process more closely with health benefits, it also highlights the importance of considering other criteria.

Reframing wildlife disease management problems with decision analysis.

Contemporary wildlife disease management is complex because managers need to respond to a wide range of stakeholders, multiple uncertainties, and difficult trade-offs that characterize the interconnected challenges of today. Despite general acknowledgment of these complexities, managing wildlife disease tends to be framed as a scientific problem, in which the major challenge is lack of knowledge. The complex and multifactorial process of decision-making is collapsed into a scientific endeavor to reduce uncertainty. As a result, contemporary decision-making may be oversimplified, rely on simple heuristics, and fail to account for the broader legal, social, and economic context in which the decisions are made. Concurrently, scientific research on wildlife disease may be distant from this decision context, resulting in information that may not be directly relevant to the pertinent management questions. We propose reframing wildlife disease management challenges as decision problems and addressing them with decision analytical tools to divide the complex problems into more cognitively manageable elements. In particular, structured decision-making has the potential to improve the quality, rigor, and transparency of decisions about wildlife disease in a variety of systems. Examples of management of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, white-nose syndrome, avian influenza, and chytridiomycosis illustrate the most common impediments to decision-making, including competing objectives, risks, prediction uncertainty, and limited resources.

Replanteamiento del manejo de problemas por enfermedades de fauna mediante el análisis de decisiones Resumen El manejo actual de las enfermedades de la fauna es complejo debido a que los gestores necesitan responder a una amplia gama de actores, varias incertidumbres y compensaciones difíciles que caracterizan los retos interconectados del día de hoy. A pesar de que en general se reconocen estas complejidades, el manejo de las enfermedades tiende a plantearse como un problema científico en el que el principal obstáculo es la falta de conocimiento. El proceso complejo y multifactorial de la toma decisiones está colapsado dentro de un esfuerzo científico para reducir la incertidumbre. Como resultado de esto, las decisiones contemporáneas pueden estar simplificadas en exceso, depender de métodos heurísticos simples y no considerar el contexto legal, social y económico más amplio en el que se toman las decisiones. De manera paralela, las investigaciones científicas sobre las enfermedades de la fauna pueden estar lejos de este contexto de decisiones, lo que deriva en información que puede no ser directamente relevante para las preguntas pertinentes de manejo. Proponemos replantear los obstáculos para el manejo de enfermedades de fauna como problemas de decisión y abordarlos con herramientas analíticas de decisión para dividir los problemas complejos en elementos más manejables de manera cognitiva. En particular, las decisiones estructuradas tienen el potencial de mejorar la calidad, el rigor y la transparencia de las decisiones sobre las enfermedades de la fauna en una variedad de sistemas. Ejemplos como el manejo del coronavirus del síndrome de respiración agudo tipo 2, el síndrome de nariz blanca, la influenza aviar y la quitridiomicosis ilustran los impedimentos más comunes para la toma de decisiones, incluyendo los objetivos en competencia, riesgos, incertidumbre en las predicciones y recursos limitados.

Cost-effectiveness of linezolid to ventilator-associated pneumonia in Colombia.

INTRODUCTION: Ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) is a prominent cause of morbidity and mortality in intensive care unit (ICU) patients. Due to the increase in Methicillin resistant Staphylococcus aureus infection, it is important to consider other more effective and safer alternatives compared to vancomycin. This motivates evaluating whether the use of an apparently more expensive drug such as linezolid can be cost-effective in Colombia. METHODS: A decision tree was used to simulate the results in terms of the cost and proportion of cured patients. In the simulation, patients can receive antibiotic treatment with linezolid (LZD 600 mg IV/12 h) or vancomycin (VCM 15 mg/kg iv/12 h) for 7 days, patients they can experience events adverse (renal failure and thrombocytopenia). The model was analyzed probabilistically, and a value of information analysis was conducted to inform the value of conducting further research to reduce current uncertainties in the evidence base. Cost-effectiveness was evaluated at a willingness-to-pay (WTP) value of US$5180. RESULTS: The mean incremental cost of LZD versus VCM is US$-517. This suggests that LZD is less costly. The proportion of patients cured when treated with LZD compared with VCM is 53 vs. 43%, respectively. The mean incremental benefit of LZD versus VCM is 10 This position of absolute dominance (LZD has lower costs and higher proportion of clinical cure than no supplementation) is unnecessary to estimate the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio. There is uncertainty with a 0.999 probability that LZD is more cost-effective than VCM. Our base-case results were robust to variations in all assumptions and parameters. CONCLUSION: LNZ is a cost-effective strategy for patients, ≥ 18 years of age, with VAP in Colombia- Our study provides evidence that can be used by decision-makers to improve clinical practice guidelines.

Evaluation of antibody-based preventive alternatives for respiratory syncytial virus: a novel multi-criteria decision analysis framework and assessment of nirsevimab in Spain.

BACKGROUND: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a highly infectious disease that poses a significant clinical and medical burden, as well as social disruption and economic costs, recognized by the World Health Organization as a public health issue. After several failed attempts to find preventive candidates (compounds, products, including vaccines), new alternatives might be available, one being nirsevimab, the first and only option approved for RSV prevention in neonates and infants during their first RSV season. The objective of this study was to develop a novel multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) framework for RSV antibody-based preventive alternatives and to use it to assess the value of nirsevimab vs. placebo as a systematic immunization approach to prevent RSV in neonates and infants during their first RSV season in Spain. METHODS: Based on a pre-established model called Vaccinex, an ad-hoc MCDA framework was created to reflect relevant attributes for the assessment of current and future antibody-based preventive measures for RSV. The estimated value of nirsevimab was obtained by means of an additive linear model combining weights and scores assigned by a multidisciplinary committee of 9 experts. A retest and three sensitivity analyses were conducted. RESULTS: Nirsevimab was evaluated through a novel framework with 26 criteria by the committee as a measure that adds value (positive final estimated value: 0.56 ± 0.11) to the current RSV scenario in Spain, by providing a high efficacy for prevention of neonates and infants. In addition, its implementation might generate cost savings in hospitalizations and to the healthcare system and increase the level of public health awareness among the general population, while reducing health inequities. CONCLUSIONS: Under a methodology with increasing use in the health field, nirsevimab has been evaluated as a measure which adds value for RSV prevention in neonates and infants during their first RSV season in Spain.

Cost-utility of tiotropium in patients with severe asthma.

Add-on therapy with tiotropium was cost-effective when added to usual care in patients who remain uncontrolled despite treatment with medium or high-dose ICS/LABA in a middle-income country. BACKGROUND: A significant proportion of asthma patients remain uncontrolled despite inhaled corticosteroids and long-acting beta-agonists. Some add-on therapies, such as tiotropium bromide, have been recommended for this subgroup of patients. This study aimed to assess the cost-effectiveness of tiotropium as an add-on therapy to inhaled corticosteroids and long-acting b2 agonists for patients with severe asthma. METHODS: A probabilistic Markov model was created to estimate the cost and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) of patients with severe asthma in Colombia. Total costs and QALYs of two interventions include standard therapy with inhaled corticosteroids and long-acting bronchodilators versus add-on therapy with tiotropium. Multiple sensitivity analyses were conducted. Cost-effectiveness was evaluated at a willingness-to-pay value of $5180. RESULTS: The expected incremental cost per QALY (ICER) is estimated at US$-2637.59. There is a probability of 0.77 that tiotropium + ICS + LABA is more cost-effective than ICS + LABA at a threshold of US$5180 per QALY. The strategy with the highest expected net benefit is Tiotropium, with an expected net benefit of US$800. Our base-case results were robust to parameter variations in the deterministic sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSION: Add-on therapy with tiotropium was cost-effective when added to usual care in patients who remain uncontrolled despite treatment with medium or high-dose inhaled corticosteroids and long-acting bronchodilators. Our study provides evidence that should be used by decision-makers to improve clinical practice guidelines and should be replicated to validate their results in other middle-income countries.

Preferences as fairness judgments: a critical review of normative frameworks of preference elicitation and development of an alternative based on constitutional economics.

Preference elicitation is widely used within health economic evaluations to inform coverage decisions. However, coverage decisions involve questions of social justice and it is unclear what role empirical evidence about preferences can play here. This study reviews the prevalent normative frameworks for using population-based preference elicitation and the criticisms they face, and proposes an alternative based on constitutional economics. The frameworks reviewed include a supposedly value-neutral framework of preferences as predictors of choice, preference utilitarian frameworks that aim to maximize preference satisfaction, and substantive consequentialist frameworks that aim to maximize happiness, health, or capabilities. The proposed alternative implements the idea that indices of social value are tools for conflict resolution, rather than tools for maximization. Preference elicitation is used for validating values generated by multi-criteria decision analysis results within representative processes of stakeholder deliberation.

Exploring health preference heterogeneity in the UK: Using the online elicitation of personal utility functions approach to construct EQ-5D-5L value functions on societal, group and individual level.

A new method has recently been developed for valuing health states, called 'Online elicitation of Personal Utility Functions' (OPUF). In contrast to established methods, such as time trade-off or discrete choice experiments, OPUF does not require hundreds of respondents, but allows estimating utility functions for small groups and even at the individual level. In this study, we used OPUF to elicit EQ-5D-5L health state preferences from a (not representative) sample of the UK general population, and then compared utility functions on the societal-, group-, and individual level. A demo version of the survey is available at: https://eq5d5l.me. Data from 874 respondents were included in the analysis. For each respondent, we constructed a personal EQ-5D-5L value set. These personal value sets predicted respondents' choices in three hold-out discrete choice tasks with an accuracy of 78%. Overall, preferences varied greatly between individuals. However, PERMANOVA analysis showed that demographic characteristics explained only a small proportion of the variability between subgroups. While OPUF is still under development, it has important strengths: it can be used to construct value sets for patient reported outcome instruments such as EQ-5D-5L, while also allowing examination of underlying preferences in an unprecedented level of detail. In the future, OPUF could be used to complement existing methods, allowing valuation studies in smaller samples, and providing more detailed insights into the heterogeneity of preferences across subgroups.

Application of hybrid multi-criteria decision-making approach to analyze wastewater microalgae culture systems for bioenergy production.

Bioenergy generation from microalgae can significantly contribute to climate mitigation and renewable energy production. In this regard, several multi-criteria decision-making method were employed to prioritize appropriate microalgae culture system for bioenergy production. Entropy weight, Criteria Importance Through Intercriteria Correlation (CRITIC) and Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) were the employed MCDA method. Fourteen microalgae culture systems were selected as a case study, which contain teen monoculture and four dual-culture. Initially, through ans in-depth review of the literature and expert views, four categories total eight indicators were selected as the evaluation indices of the study, namely 1) Proliferation: Half growth cycle and Max growth rate,2) Biomass output: Bio-crude yield and Lipid yield, 3) Nutrient utilization: residual concentration of total Nitrogen and total Phosphorus, and, 4) Stability: coefficient of variation of Bio-crude yield and Lipid yield. The result indicated that "Pediastrum sp. & Micractinium sp." was identified as the most bioenergy potential microalgae culture system, and the evaluation results of entropy weight method and CRITIC method are similar. It is pertinent to note that 1)the entropy weight method exhibits lower sample size requirements, 2) the critic method excels when dealing with larger sample sizes, and 3) the TOPSIS method necessitates the incorporation of appropriate weighting methods to ensure credible results. In the application stage, the key indicators related to cost can be further included in the evaluation indices.

A holistic framework of biochar-augmented cementitious products and general applications: Technical, environmental, and economic evaluation.

In the context of the circular economy, the development of innovative and low-carbon concrete that incorporates different kinds of waste materials is gaining attention among the research community, regulatory agencies, and policymakers. These materials can be incorporated into concrete mixtures as aggregates or as fillers for improvement of product properties. This study aims to identify reliable designs for biochar-augmented cementitious products and general applications through technical, environmental, and economic assessments. The outcomes demonstrate that 5 wt% biochar addition could enhance the compressive strength of the final products. Using biochar, together with other recycled materials, can enormously reduce the environmental impacts, especially for global warming, enabling biochar-augmented cementitious products and general application as carbon-negative resources. The highest GWP reduction reached -720 kg CO2/tonne, equal to a 200% saving. A high quantity of biochar could be included in several specific applications (up to 60 wt%). The economic assessment highlights that the proposed designs are cost-effective and carbon tax can be significantly reduced. Carbon credits can also be earned for some carbon-negative designs. These findings can serve to mitigate GHG emissions and provide decision-makers with a reliable and holistic framework towards the goal of carbon neutrality.

Projecting future prolapse outcomes with induction of labor at 39 weeks: a decision analysis.

INTRODUCTION AND HYPOTHESIS: In 2018, the ARRIVE trial (A Randomized Trial of Induction Versus Expectant Management) concluded that routine induction of labor (IOL) at 39 weeks gestation decreases cesarean delivery risk, with slightly lighter birthweight infants. We debated whether routine IOL would improve, worsen, or not change POP risk compared with expectant management (EM). METHODS: We constructed a decision analysis model with a lifetime horizon where nulliparous women reaching 39 weeks underwent IOL or EM. Subsequent vaginal versus cesarean delivery varied based on prior deliveries for up to four births. Subsequent delivery prior to 39 weeks and distribution of gestational age, birthweight, and delivery mode between 24 and 39 weeks was modeled from national data. We modeled increased POP risk with increasing vaginal parity, forceps delivery, and weight of largest infant delivered vaginally, accounting for differential infant weights in each strategy. RESULTS: IOL and EM have similar population-wide POP risk (15.9% and 15.7% respectively). Among women with only spontaneous vaginal deliveries that reached 39 weeks or beyond, the prevalence of POP was 20% after one delivery and 29% after four deliveries, with no difference between groups. The cesarean rate was lower with IOL (27.8% versus 29.8%). Sensitivity analysis revealed no meaningful thresholds among the variables, supporting model robustness. CONCLUSION: While routine induction of labor at 39 weeks results in a meaningfully higher vaginal delivery rate, there was no increase in POP, possibly due to the protective effect of lower birthweight.

Cost-effectiveness of severe acute malnutrition treatment delivered by community health workers in the district of Mayahi, Niger.

BACKGROUND: A non-randomized controlled trial, conducted from June 2018 to March 2019 in two rural communes in the health district of Mayahi in Niger, showed that including community health workers (CHWs) in the treatment of severe acute malnutrition (SAM) resulted in a better recovery rate (77.2% vs. 72.1%) compared with the standard treatment provided solely at the health centers. The present study aims to assess the cost and cost-effectiveness of the CHWs led treatment of uncomplicated SAM in children 6-59 months compared to the standard national protocol. METHODS: To account for all relevant costs, the cost analysis included activity-based costing and bottom-up approaches from a societal perspective and on a within-trial time horizon. The cost-effectiveness analysis was conducted through a decision analysis network built with OpenMarkov and evaluated under two approaches: (1) with recovery rate and cost per child admitted for treatment as measures of effectiveness and cost, respectively; and (2) assessing the total number of children recovered and the total cost incurred. In addition, a multivariate probabilistic sensitivity analysis was carried out to evaluate the effect of uncertainty around the base case input data. RESULTS: For the base case data, the average cost per child recovered was 116.52 USD in the standard treatment and 107.22 USD in the CHWs-led treatment. Based on the first approach, the CHWs-led treatment was more cost-effective than the standard treatment with an average cost per child admitted for treatment of 82.81 USD vs. 84.01 USD. Based on the second approach, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of the transition from the standard to the CHWs-led treatment amounted to 98.01 USD per additional SAM case recovered. CONCLUSIONS: In the district of Mayahi in Niger, the CHWs-led SAM treatment was found to be cost-effective when compared to the standard protocol and provided additional advantages such as the reduction of costs for households. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN with ID 31143316. https://doi.org/10.1186/ISRCTN31143316.

The diagnostic accuracy of quality control rules.

Internal quality control in clinical chemistry laboratories are based on analyzing samples of stable control materials among the patient samples. The control results are interpreted by using quality control rules that usually are designed to detect systematic errors. The best rules have a high probability of error detection (Ped), i.e. to detect the maximal allowable (critical) systematic error and a low probability of false rejection (Pfr, false alarm). In this work we show that quality control rules can be represented by points on a ROC curve which appears when Ped is plotted against Pfr and only the control limit is varied. Further, we introduce a new method for choosing the optimal control limit, analogous to choosing the optimal operating point on the ROC curve of a diagnostic test. This decision needs knowledge of the pretest probability of a critical systematic error, the benefit of detecting it when it occurs and the cost of false alarm. The ROC curve analysis showed that if rules based on N = 2 are used, mean rules outperform Westgard rules because the ROC curve of the mean rules was lying above the ROC curves of the Westgard rules. A mean rule also had a lower maximum expected increase in the number of unacceptable patient results reported during the presence of an out-of-control error condition (Max E(NUF)) than comparable Westgard rules.

Spatial multi-criteria decision analysis for the selection of sentinel regions in tick-borne disease surveillance.

BACKGROUND: The implementation of cost-effective surveillance systems is essential for tracking the emerging risk of tick-borne diseases. In Canada, where Lyme disease is a growing public health concern, a national sentinel surveillance network was designed to follow the epidemiological portrait of this tick-borne disease across the country. The surveillance network consists of sentinel regions, with active drag sampling carried out annually in all regions to assess the density of Ixodes spp. ticks and prevalence of various tick-borne pathogens in the tick population. The aim of the present study was to prioritize sentinel regions by integrating different spatial criteria relevant to the surveillance goals. METHODS: We used spatially-explicit multi-criteria decision analyses (MCDA) to map priority areas for surveillance across Canada, and to evaluate different scenarios using sensitivity analyses. Results were shared with stakeholders to support their decision making for the selection of priority areas to survey during active surveillance activities. RESULTS: Weights attributed to criteria by decision-makers were overall consistent. Sensitivity analyses showed that the population criterion had the most impact on rankings. Thirty-seven sentinel regions were identified across Canada using this systematic and transparent approach. CONCLUSION: This novel application of spatial MCDA to surveillance network design favors inclusivity of nationwide partners. We propose that such an approach can support the standardized planning of spatial design of sentinel surveillance not only for vector-borne disease BDs, but more broadly for infectious disease surveillance where spatial design is an important component.

Design of a multiple criteria decision analysis framework for prioritizing high-impact health technologies in a regional health service.

OBJECTIVES: This study aims to develop a framework for establishing priorities in the regional health service of Murcia, Spain, to facilitate the creation of a comprehensive multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA) framework. This framework will aid in decision-making processes related to the assessment, reimbursement, and utilization of high-impact health technologies. METHOD: Based on the results of a review of existing frameworks for MCDA of health technologies, a set of criteria was proposed to be used in the context of evaluating high-impact health technologies. Key stakeholders within regional healthcare services, including clinical leaders and management personnel, participated in a focus group (n = 11) to discuss the proposed criteria and select the final fifteen. To elicit the weights of the criteria, two surveys were administered, one to a small sample of healthcare professionals (n = 35) and another to a larger representative sample of the general population (n = 494). RESULTS: The responses obtained from health professionals in the weighting procedure exhibited greater consistency compared to those provided by the general public. The criteria more highly weighted were "Need for intervention" and "Intervention outcomes." The weights finally assigned to each item in the multicriteria framework were derived as the equal-weighted sum of the mean weights from the two samples. CONCLUSIONS: A multi-attribute function capable of generating a composite measure (multicriteria) to assess the value of high-impact health interventions has been developed. Furthermore, it is recommended to pilot this procedure in a specific decision context to evaluate the efficacy, feasibility, usefulness, and reliability of the proposed tool.