Indirect Estimation of the Timing of First Union Dissolution With Incomplete Marriage Histories.

The lack of nationally representative data with detailed marriage histories in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) impedes a comprehensive understanding of essential aspects of union dissolution, such as the timing of first union dissolution, in these countries. We propose a method for estimating quantum-adjusted measures of the timing of first union dissolution from incomplete marriage histories. This method, indirect life table of first union dissolution (ILTUD), estimates the first union survival function from a simple tabulation of ever-married women by duration since first union, classified by union dissolution status (intact vs. dissolved first union). It then uses the relationships between life table functions to generate the distribution of marriages ending each year (θt) for a given marriage cohort. Using this distribution, ILTUD generates quantum-adjusted first union survival rates from which the percentiles of first union dissolution are calculated. ILTUD estimates are consistent with estimates produced using traditional statistical methods, such as the Kaplan-Meier estimator. In addition, ILTUD is simple to implement and has minimal data requirements, which are available in most nationally representative surveys. Thus, the ILTUD method has the potential to broaden our understanding of union dissolution dynamics in LMICs.

Families in comparison: An individual-level comparison of life-course and family reconstructions between population and vital event registers.

It remains unknown how different types of sources affect the reconstruction of life courses and families in large-scale databases increasingly common in demographic research. Here, we compare family and life-course reconstructions for 495 individuals simultaneously present in two well-known Dutch data sets: LINKS, based on the Zeeland province's full-population vital event registration data (passive registration), and the Historical Sample of the Netherlands (HSN), based on a national sample of birth certificates, with follow-up of individuals in population registers (active registration). We compare indicators of fertility, marriage, mortality, and occupational status, and conclude that reconstructions in the HSN and LINKS reflect each other well: LINKS provides more complete information on siblings and parents, whereas the HSN provides more complete life-course information. We conclude that life-course and family reconstructions based on linked passive registration of individuals constitute a reliable alternative to reconstructions based on active registration, if case selection is carefully considered.

Comparative analysis of completeness of death registration, adult mortality and life expectancy at birth in Brazil at the subnational level.

BACKGROUND: Estimates of completeness of death registration are crucial to produce estimates of life tables and population projections and to estimate the burden of disease. They are an important step in assessing the quality of data. In the case of subnational data analysis in Brazil, it is important to consider spatial and temporal variation in the quality of mortality data. There are two main sources of data quality evaluation in Brazil, but there are few comparative studies and how they evolve over time. The aim of the paper is to compare and discuss alternative estimates of completeness of death registration, adult mortality (45q15) and life expectancy estimates produced by the National Statistics Office (IBGE), Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), and estimates presented in Queiroz et al. (2017) and Schmertmann and Gonzaga (2018), for 1980 and 2010. METHODS: We provide a descriptive and comparative analysis of aforementioned estimates from four (4) sources of estimates at subnational level (26 states and one Federal District) in Brazil from two different points in time. RESULTS: We found significant differences in estimates that affect both levels and trends of completeness of adult mortality in Brazil and states. IHME and Queiroz et al. (2017) estimates converge by 2010, but there are large differences when compared to estimates from the National Statistics Office (IBGE). Larger differences are observed for less developed states. We have showed that the quality of mortality data in Brazil has improved steadily overtime, but with large regional variations. However, we have observed that IBGE estimates show the lowest levels of completeness for the Northern of the country compared to other estimates. Choice of methods and approaches might lead to very unexpected results. CONCLUSION: We produced a detailed comparative analysis of estimates of completeness of death registration from different sources and discuss the main results and possible explanations for these differences. We have also showed that new improved methods are still needed to study adult mortality in less developed countries and at a subnational level. More comparative studies are important in order to improve quality of estimates in Brazil.

Early-life mortality clustering in families: A literature review.

Research on early-life mortality in contemporary and historical populations has shown that infant and child mortality tend to cluster in a limited number of high-mortality families, a phenomenon known as 'mortality clustering'. This paper is the first to review the literature on the role of the family in early-life mortality. Contemporary results, methodological and theoretical shortfalls, recent developments, and opportunities for future research are all discussed in this review. Four methodological approaches are distinguished: those based on sibling deaths, mother heterogeneity, thresholds, and excess deaths in populations. It has become clear from research to date that the death of an older child harms the survival chances of younger children in that family, and that fertility behaviour, earlier stillbirths, remarriages, and socio-economic status all explain mortality clustering to some extent.

Promises and Pitfalls of Using Digital Traces for Demographic Research.

The digital traces that we leave online are increasingly fruitful sources of data for social scientists, including those interested in demographic research. The collection and use of digital data also presents numerous statistical, computational, and ethical challenges, motivating the development of new research approaches to address these burgeoning issues. In this article, we argue that researchers with formal training in demography-those who have a history of developing innovative approaches to using challenging data-are well positioned to contribute to this area of work. We discuss the benefits and challenges of using digital trace data for social and demographic research, and we review examples of current demographic literature that creatively use digital trace data to study processes related to fertility, mortality, and migration. Focusing on Facebook data for advertisers-a novel "digital census" that has largely been untapped by demographers-we provide illustrative and empirical examples of how demographic researchers can manage issues such as bias and representation when using digital trace data. We conclude by offering our perspective on the road ahead regarding demography and its role in the data revolution.

Choosing the choice: Reflections on modelling decisions and behaviour in demographic agent-based models.

This paper investigates the issues associated with choosing appropriate models of choice for demographic agent-based models. In particular, we discuss the importance of context, time preference, and dealing with uncertainty in decision modelling, as well as the heterogeneity between agents in their decision-making strategies. The paper concludes by advocating empirically driven, modular, and multi-model approaches to designing simulations of human decision-making, given the lack of an agreed strategy for dealing with any of these issues. Furthermore, we suggest that an iterative process of data collection and simulation experiments, with the latter informing future empirical data collection, should form the basis of such an endeavour. The discussion is illustrated with reference to selected demographic agent-based models, with a focus on migration.

Lifetime risk of maternal near miss morbidity: a novel indicator of maternal health.

BACKGROUND: The lifetime risk of maternal death quantifies the probability that a 15-year-old girl will die of a maternal cause in her reproductive lifetime. Its intuitive appeal means it is a widely used summary measure for advocacy and international comparisons of maternal health. However, relative to mortality, women are at an even higher risk of experiencing life-threatening maternal morbidity called 'maternal near miss' (MNM) events-complications so severe that women almost die. As maternal mortality continues to decline, health indicators that include information on both fatal and non-fatal maternal outcomes are required. METHODS: We propose a novel measure-the lifetime risk of MNM-to estimate the cumulative risk that a 15-year-old girl will experience a MNM in her reproductive lifetime, accounting for mortality between the ages 15 and 49 years. We apply the method to the case of Namibia (2019) using estimates of fertility and survival from the United Nations World Population Prospects along with nationally representative data on the MNM ratio. RESULTS: We estimate a lifetime risk of MNM in Namibia in 2019 of between 1 in 40 and 1 in 35 when age-disaggregated MNM data are used, and 1 in 38 when a summary estimate for ages 15-49 years is used. This compares to a lifetime risk of maternal death of 1 in 142 and yields a lifetime risk of severe maternal outcome (MNM or death) of 1 in 30. CONCLUSIONS: The lifetime risk of MNM is an urgently needed indicator of maternal morbidity because existing measures (the MNM ratio or rate) do not capture the cumulative risk over the reproductive life course, accounting for fertility and mortality levels.

Community-based social determinants of three measures of mortality in Rhode Island cities and towns.

BACKGROUND: Efforts to understand and address the causes of place-based health disparities have focused primarily on understanding the social determinants of health on a large geographic level, such as the region, state, or county. However, there is a growing need to assess and understand how place-based characteristics at smaller geographic areas relate to of local place-based neighborhood characteristics on population health. Therefore, the objective of this study was to evaluate the magnitude of the associations between social determinants of health and life expectancy (LE) and related measures on the community level. METHODS: LE at birth (LE0), remaining LE at age 65 (LE65), and age-specific mortality rates (ASMR) were calculated from mortality data (2009-2011) collected by the Rhode Island Department of Health (RIDoH) using abridged life table methods for each RI city/town. The city/town-specific LE and ASMR were linked to data collected by the US Census, RIDoH, the Federal Bureau of Investigation, and other databases that include information about multiple social, environmental, and demographic determinants of health. Bivariate correlations between city/town-level LE0, LE65, and ASMR and social determinants: demographics, household composition, income and poverty, education, environment, food insecurity, crime, transportation, and rural-urban status were examined. RESULTS: LE0 (range: 75.9-83.3 years) was strongly associated with the percent of the population with a graduate/professional degree (r = 0.687, p < 0.001), violent crime rate (r = - 0.598, p <  0.001), and per capita income (r = 0.553, p < 0.001). Similar results were observed for ASMR: ASMR was associated with the percent of the population with a graduate/professional degree (r = - 0.596, p <  0.001), violent crime rate (r = 0.450, p = 0.005), and per capita income (r = - 0.533, p < 0.001). The associations between LE65 and social determinants were more attenuated. Of note, none of the measures (LE0, LE65, or ASMR) were associated with any of the race/ethnicity variables. CONCLUSIONS: There are several important place-based characteristics associated with mortality (LE and ASMR) among RI cities/towns. Additionally, some communities had unexpectedly high LE and low ASMR, despite poor social indicators.

Completeness of birth registration in Brazil: an overview of methods and data sources.

We provide an analysis of the main sources of data used to estimate fertility schedules in developing countries, giving special attention to Brazil. In addition to the brief history of various data sources, we present several indirect demographic methods, commonly used to estimate fertility and assess the quality of data. From the methods used, the Synthetic Relational Gompertz model gives the most robust estimates of fertility, independent of the data source considered. We conclude that different demographic data sources and methods generate differing estimates of fertility and that the country should invest in quality of birth statistics.

The Contribution of Health Care and Other Interventions to Black-White Disparities in Life Expectancy, 1980-2007.

Black-white mortality disparities remain sizable in the United States. In this study, we use the concept of avoidable/amenable mortality to estimate cause-of-death contributions to the difference in life expectancy between whites and blacks by gender in the United States in 1980, 1993, and 2007. We begin with a review of the concept of "avoidable mortality" and results of prior studies using this cause-of-death classification. We then present the results of our empirical analyses. We classified causes of death as amenable to medical care, sensitive to public health policies and health behaviors, ischemic heart disease, suicide, HIV/AIDS, and all other causes combined. We used vital statistics data on deaths and Census Bureau population estimates and standard demographic decomposition techniques. In 2007, causes of death amenable to medical care continued to account for close to 2 years of the racial difference in life expectancy among men (2.08) and women (1.85). Causes amenable to public health interventions made a larger contribution to the racial difference in life expectancy among men (1.17 years) than women (0.08 years). The contribution of HIV/AIDS substantially widened the racial difference among both men (1.08 years) and women (0.42 years) in 1993, but its contribution declined over time. Despite progress observed over the time period studied, a substantial portion of black-white disparities in mortality could be reduced given more equitable access to medical care and health interventions.

O que os dados de mortalidade do Censo de 2010 podem nos dizer? / Qué pueden decirnos los datos sobre mortalidad en el Censo de 2010? / What can the mortality data from the 2010 Census tell us?

O Censo brasileiro de 2010 incluiu, em seu questionário, a pergunta sobre óbitos ocorridos no domicílio nos últimos 12 meses. Anteriormente, uma questão similar havia sido incluída na amostra do Censo de 1980, mas sendo pouco utilizada. O objetivo do artigo é fazer uma avaliação da qualidade da informação de mortalidade do Censo, em especial sobre a estrutura etária da mortalidade. Em relação à cobertura da enumeração dos óbitos, esta saltou de 40%, no Censo de 1980, para 80%, no de 2010. Os resultados mostram que, para o Brasil, a qualidade das informações é bastante elevada tanto no nível como no padrão das curvas de mortalidade obtidas. A grande restrição existe para os grupos de idade mais avançados.

El Censo brasileño de 2010 incluyó, en su cuestionario, la pregunta sobre óbitos producidos en el domicilio durante los últimos 12 meses. Anteriormente, una cuestión similar había sido incluida en la muestra del Censo de 1980, pero fue poco utilizada. El objetivo de este artículo es realizar una evaluación de la calidad de la información de mortalidad del Censo, en especial sobre la estructura etaria de la mortalidad. En relación con la cobertura de la enumeración de los óbitos, esta saltó de un 40%, en el Censo de 1980, a un 80%, en el de 2010. Los resultados muestran que, en el caso de Brasil, la calidad de la información es bastante elevada tanto en el nivel como en el patrón de las curvas de mortalidad obtenidas. La gran restricción existe para los grupos de edad más avanzados.

The Brazilian Census of 2010 included in its survey a question on the deaths occurring in the household in the past 12 months. Previously, a similar question was included in the sample of the 1980 census, but has been rarely used. The aim of this paper is to evaluate the quality of mortality data from the Census, especially in regards to mortality age structure. The coverage of deaths went from 40% in 1980 Census to 80% in 2010 Census. The results show that, in Brazil, the quality of information is quite high both in level and in the pattern of mortality curves obtained. A more important restriction exists for groups of more advanced age.