Asymmetric effects of hydroclimate extremes on eastern US tree growth: Implications on current demographic shifts and climate variability.

Forests around the world are experiencing changes due to climate variability and human land use. How these changes interact and influence the vulnerability of forests are not well understood. In the eastern United States, well-documented anthropogenic disturbances and land-use decisions, such as logging and fire suppression, have influenced forest species assemblages, leading to a demographic shift from forests dominated by xeric species to those dominated by mesic species. Contemporarily, the climate has changed and is expected to continue to warm and produce higher evaporative demand, imposing stronger drought stress on forest communities. Here, we use an extensive network of tree-ring records from common hardwood species across ~100 sites and ~1300 trees in the eastern United States to examine the magnitude of growth response to both wet and dry climate extremes. We find that growth reductions during drought exceed the positive growth response to pluvials. Mesic species such as Liriodendron tulipifera and Acer saccharum, which are becoming more dominant, are more sensitive to drought than more xeric species, such as oaks (Quercus) and hickory (Carya), especially at moderate and extreme drought intensities. Although more extreme droughts produce a larger annual growth reduction, mild droughts resulted in the largest cumulative growth decreases due to their higher frequency. When using global climate model projections, all scenarios show drought frequency increasing substantially (3-9 times more likely) by 2100. Thus, the ongoing demographic shift toward more mesic species in the eastern United States combined with drier conditions results in larger drought-induced growth declines, suggesting that drought will have an even larger impact on aboveground carbon uptake in the future in the eastern United States.

Global trends in the incidence and mortality of pancreatic cancer based on geographic location, socioeconomic status, and demographic shift.

BACKGROUND: Pancreatic cancer (PC) is a lethal malignancy with a significantly rising rate of incidence and mortality. This study aims to describe the influence of geography, socioeconomic development (based on the Human Development Index [HDI]), gender, and demographic shift on the temporal trends in the global burden of PC. METHODS: Data (2020-2040) relating to the incidence, mortality of PC, and demographic shifts based on continents and HDI areas were extracted from GLOBOCAN 2020. RESULTS: PC was associated with a higher socioeconomic status. Asia contributed to the majority of the burden, led by China. Advanced age (≥65 years) contributed to the majority of the burden in all socioeconomic regions except in Medium HDI and Low HDI countries, where the younger population (<65 years) contributed more. Females contributed to a higher burden in certain countries. Future trends for 2040 showed a >60% increase in the incidence and mortality of PC with an associated demographic shift. CONCLUSION: The global burden of PC is expected to rise significantly over the next few decades regardless of geography, socioeconomic development, age, and gender. Advance knowledge of this data can help to formulate strategies and public health policies to specifically target countries and populations at risk.

Daily Monitoring at a Full-Scale Wastewater Treatment Plant Reveals Temporally Variable Micropollutant Biotransformations.

Despite decades of micropollutant (MP) monitoring at wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs), we lack a fundamental understanding of the time-varying metabolic processes driving MP biotransformations. To address this knowledge gap, we collected 24-h composite samples from the influent and effluent of the conventional activated sludge (CAS) process at a WWTP over 14 consecutive days. We used liquid chromatography and high-resolution mass spectrometry to (i) quantify 184 MPs in the influent and effluent of the CAS process; (ii) characterize temporal dynamics of MP removal and biotransformation rate constants; and (iii) discover biotransformations linked to temporally variable MP biotransformation rate constants. We measured 120 MPs in at least one sample and 66 MPs in every sample. There were 24 MPs exhibiting temporally variable removal throughout the sampling campaign. We used hierarchical clustering analysis to reveal four temporal trends in biotransformation rate constants and found MPs with specific structural features co-located in the four clusters. We screened our HRMS acquisitions for evidence of specific biotransformations linked to structural features among the 24 MPs. Our analyses reveal that alcohol oxidations, monohydroxylations at secondary or tertiary aliphatic carbons, dihydroxylations of vic-unsubstituted rings, and monohydroxylations at unsubstituted rings are biotransformations that exhibit variability on daily timescales.

The occurence of cancer in ageing populations at global and regional levels, 1990 to 2019.

BACKGROUND: population ageing contributes to increased cancer cases and deaths and has profound implications for global healthcare systems. We estimated the trends of cancer cases and deaths in ageing populations at global and regional levels. METHODS: using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, we analysed the change in cancer cases and deaths associated with population ageing, population growth and epidemiological factors from 1990 to 2019 using decomposition analysis. Additionally, we estimated the proportions of people aged 65 years and over accounting for total cases and deaths, and investigated relationships between the proportions and the Sociodemographic Index (SDI) using the Pearson correlation coefficient. RESULTS: from 1990 to 2019, there was an increase of 128.9% for total cases and 74.8% for total deaths in all cancers combined; the percentages of older people increased from 48.6% to 56.4% for cases and from 52.0% to 61.9% for deaths. Population ageing contributed to the largest increase in global cancer occurrence, with 56.5% for cases and 63.3% for deaths. However, the changes attributed to epidemiological factors was 5.2% for cancer cases and -33.4% for cancer deaths. The proportions of total cases and deaths of older adults were positively correlated with socioeconomic development of the country. CONCLUSION: our findings revealed that the main contributor to increased cancer cases and deaths has changed from comprehensive epidemiological factors to demographic shifts. To respond to the rapidly growing occurrence of cancer in ageing populations, the global health priority should focus on meeting the rising demand for cancer diagnosis, treatment and care services for older people.

Research Note: Demographic Change on the United States Coast, 2020-2100.

Prospective demographic information of the United States is limited to national-level analyses and subnational analyses of the total population. With nearly 40% of the U.S. population being residents of coastal areas, understanding the anticipated demographic changes in coastal counties is important for long-range planning purposes. In this research note, we use long-range, county-level population projections based on a simplified cohort-component method to discuss demographic changes by age, sex, and race and ethnicity for coastal counties between 2020 and the end of the century, and we compare these changes to inland counties. Presently, coastal counties are statistically significantly different from inland counties by race and ethnicity (more diverse) and sex (more women) but not by age, yet by 2025, we expect coastal counties to become significantly older than inland counties. We note several important trajectories of predicted demographic outcomes in coastal counties across the remainder of the century: (1) the non-Hispanic White population is expected to decrease, both numerically and as a percentage of the population; (2) the population older than 65 is projected to increase, both numerically and as a percentage of the population; and (3) the ratio of women to men remains constant over the century at 1.03. These trends combine to suggest that the future U.S. coastline will likely be both increasingly diverse racially and ethnically and significantly older than it is today.

In time, we will simply disappear: Racial demographic shift undermines privileged group members' support for marginalized social groups via collective angst.

The racial demographic shift occurring in many Western countries provides a unique context to study the reactions of a high-power group (White people) to the potential loss of their privileged position in society. Three experiments (N = 77, N = 302, N = 555) conducted in Canada, the US, and the UK showed that White people who are reminded about the ongoing demographic changes and who see race relations as a zero-sum game whereby any gains by minorities must come at the expense of the majority, experience stronger collective angst and, to a lesser extent, fear (but not anger). In turn, collective angst, but not the other negative group-based emotions, fuels their motivation to protect the existing intergroup hierarchy by withdrawing support for progressive social movements and increases anti-immigration sentiments. Downregulating the existential threat experienced by White majorities in the face of a racial demographic shift may be one way to reduce acrimonious behavioral intentions aimed at preserving their place in the social hierarchy.

Survival analysis of the Black Death: Social inequality of women and the perils of life and death in Medieval London.

OBJECTIVES: Described as an indiscriminate killer by many chroniclers, the Black Death descended on London during the 14th century. To best understand the pattern of transmission among demographic groups, models should include multiple demographic and health covariates concurrently, something rarely done when examining Black Death, but implemented in this study to identify which demographic groups had a higher susceptibility. Female predisposition to the Black Death was also explored, focusing on whether social inequality added to vulnerability. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Three attritional cemeteries from the Wellcome Osteological Research Database were compared with the Black Death cemetery, East Smithfield. A Cox proportional hazards regression estimated hazards ratios of dying of the Black Death, using transition analysis ages-at-death as the time variable, and sex and frailty as covariates. Additionally, a binomial logistic regression generated odds ratios for age-at-death, sex, and frailty. RESULTS: The Cox model produced a significant hazards ratio for individuals deemed frail. Similarly, the logit model calculated significantly increased odds ratios for frail individuals, and decreased odds for individuals aged 65+. DISCUSSION: The older individuals were not undergoing growth during times of great stress in London pre-dating the Black Death epidemic, which may explain the decreased odds of contracting the Black Death. Further, although women dealt with social inequality, which partially led to the demographic puzzle of the Medieval "missing" women, women's susceptibility to infection by the Black Death was not increased. The phenomenon of the missing women may be due to a combination of factors, including infant and child mortality and preservation.

Global trends in the burden of liver cancer.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study is to describe the influence of geography, socio-economic development, and demographic shift on the trends in global incidence, mortality, and prevalence of liver cancer (LC). METHODS: Data (2012-2030) relating to LC and demographic shifts based on WHO regions and HDI areas were extracted from GLOBOCAN 2012 and analyzed to evaluate trends in incidence, mortality, and prevalence. RESULTS: The results of our study document a rising global burden of LC with the maximum impact in the WPRO region. We did not observe a definite association between LC and higher socio-economic status with the highest burden in the MHD region. For the MHD region, we noticed age reversal in burden from the younger age group currently to the older age group in the future (2030). Another finding is the high burden and early onset of disease in some low-income countries such as Mongolia, Lao PDR, and Vietnam. CONCLUSION: The results of our study demonstrate a rising global burden of LC with some significant but uneven trends based on geography, age, and socio-economic status. This information can be used to shape policy and aid strategic targeting of resources to areas with the highest burden.

Global epidemiological trends and variations in the burden of gallbladder cancer.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study is to describe the trends and variations in the global burden of gallbladder cancer (GBC) with an emphasis on geographic variations and female gender. METHODS: Data (2012-2030) relating to GBC was extracted from GLOBOCAN 2012 database and analyzed. RESULTS: The results of our study document a rising global burden of GBC with geographic and gender variations. The highest burden was noted in the WPRO region (based on WHO regions), Asia (based on continents) and India, Chile, and China (based on countries). The less developed regions of the world account for the majority of the global burden of GBC. The geographic variations are also present within individual countries such as in India and Chile. Females are afflicted at a much higher rate with GBC and this predilection is exaggerated in countries with higher incidence such as India and Chile. In females, people of certain ethnic groups and lower socio-economic standing are at a higher risk. CONCLUSIONS: Our study demonstrates a rising global burden of GBC with some specific data on geographic and gender-based variations which can be used to develop strategies at the global as well as the high-risk individual country level.

Predictive global trends in the incidence and mortality of pancreatic cancer based on geographic location, socio-economic status, and demographic shift.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Pancreatic Cancer (PC) is a lethal malignancy that accounts for about 4% of cancer-related deaths worldwide. The aim of this study is to describe the influence of geography (based on WHO regions), socio-economic development (based on Human Development Index [HDI]) and demographic shift on the temporal trends in global incidence and mortality of PC. METHODS: Data (2012-2030) relating to the incidence, mortality of PC and demographic shifts based on WHO regions and HDI areas were extracted from GLOBOCAN 2012. Linear regression was used to evaluate trends in total incidence and mortality. RESULTS: We noted a definite association between PC and higher socio-economic status. Advanced age (age ≥65) contributed to the rising burden in all socio-economic regions of the world except in the Low Human Development (LHD) countries where the disease predominantly affected population <65 years of age. CONCLUSIONS: The global burden of PC is expected to rise significantly over the next few decades regardless of geographic location, socio-economic development, age and gender. Advance knowledge of this data can help formulate strategies to specifically target countries and populations that promote public health policy to tackle this lethal disease on the global stage. J. Surg. Oncol. 2016;114:736-742. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Preparing the Younger Generation for an Aging Society: Strategies, Challenges, and Opportunities.

The global demographic landscape is experiencing a monumental shift as populations age, driven by advances in healthcare and declining birth rates. This transition underscores the need to prepare the younger generation to navigate and contribute effectively to an aging society. This manuscript comprehensively reviews strategies to equip younger generations with the requisite knowledge, skills, and empathy to support an aging population. This study identifies critical challenges and opportunities in fostering intergenerational solidarity and understanding through an extensive analysis of existing literature and innovative educational programs. The review highlights the importance of early education, community engagement, and policy interventions in bridging the generational divide. Additionally, it explores the role of technology and digital media in facilitating awareness and empathy among young people. Key findings suggest that incorporating aging-related content into educational curricula, promoting volunteerism, and implementing supportive policies can significantly enhance the younger generation's readiness to support an aging society. The manuscript concludes with recommendations for future research and practical steps for educators, policymakers, and community leaders to foster a more inclusive and age-friendly environment. By preparing the younger generation today, we can build a more cohesive and supportive society for tomorrow.

Reflections of ageing among older adults in a Ugandan community: A qualitative analysis into the benefits and pains of ageing.

Background: The way societies comprehend and interpret aging has been in constant flux, mainly as life expectancy benchmarks increase and worldwide dynamics transform. Similar to many other nations, Uganda is experiencing this demographic shift. People aged 60 and above, who form a mere 2.7% of Uganda's population, are gradually emerging as a segment worth attention. This surge in life expectancy, which has increased from 50 to 63 years over the last decade, indicates a significant transformation in healthcare, lifestyles, and societal structures. Given this backdrop, there is a pressing need to delve deeper into the perceptions and experiences of this age cohort, especially in Central Uganda. This area mirrors the national trends. Methods: This study adopted a rigorous methodological approach. Individuals aged 60 years and above were selected through purposive sampling, which aimed to draw out rich and diverse narratives. These participants participated in seven in-depth Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) held in Wakiso District. To ensure accuracy in representation, all discussions were first transcribed in Luganda, the local dialect, before careful translation to English. Results: The participants presented a broad age spectrum from 62 to 90 years. The demographic data revealed a majority of female participants (54%), and a noteworthy statistic was that over half (51%) lacked a steady income source. Meticulous thematic analysis uncovered three themes. First, the journey of ageing encompasses physical, psychological, and social shifts, such as diminishing mobility, deteriorating health, and mounting social isolation. Second, the brighter side of ageing manifests in intangibles such as accumulated wisdom and a profound sense of life's accomplishments. The third theme echoed the harsher realities of aging, highlighting struggles with maintaining independence, looming financial challenges, and the sting of social exclusion.

Fulfillment of physical activity guidelines in the general population and frailty status in the elderly population : A correlation study of data from 11 European countries.

BACKGROUND: We report on the correlation between the proportion of people who fulfil the recommended amount of aerobic physical activity in the general population and the prevalence of frailty or prefrailty in the population ≥65 years in 11 European countries (Austria, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, France, Germany, Italy, Luxembourg, Slovenia, Spain and Sweden). In a subgroup analysis, it was assessed if people who do aerobic physical activity also do strength training. METHODS: Aggregated physical activity data were taken from the European Health Interview Survey with the minimum effective sample size of 90,036 participants. Data on frailty status were taken from the Survey of Health Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) study (N = 24,590). For the subgroup analysis, data of the Austrian Health Interview Survey (ATHIS) (N = 15,770) were included. RESULTS: The results indicate a significant negative correlation between the proportion of people fulfilling the minimal aerobic physical activity recommendations (≥150 min/week) and the proportion of prefrail or frail people (R = -0.745; p = 0.008). The correlation between the optimal aerobic physical activity recommendations (≥300 min/week) and the proportion of prefrail or frail individuals was R = -0.691 (p = 0.019). In both data sets a north-south gradient was seen. Austrian data showed that 52.0% of the participants fulfilled the minimal aerobic physical activity recommendations and conducted strength training, whereas 18.4% did not fulfil the aerobic recommendations but performed strength training (p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: By taking into account that the number of people ≥65 years will increase in the future these results may be relevant in planning public health interventions for the whole population with the goal of reducing frailty in the elderly.

Aging in the United States: Opportunities and Challenges for Otolaryngology-Head and Neck Surgery.

The number of Americans over the age of 65 has been growing much faster than the overall population's growth rate. These changes can be largely attributed to the improvement in life expectancy. This demographic shift yields a unique and exciting opportunity to provide both expedient and cost-efficient care to a growing patient population.

Where women go to deliver: understanding the changing landscape of childbirth in Africa and Asia.

Growing evidence from a number of countries in Asia and Africa documents a large shift towards facility deliveries in the past decade. These increases have not led to the improvements in health outcomes that were predicted by health policy researchers in the past. In light of this unexpected evidence, we have assessed data from multiple sources, including nationally representative data from 43 countries in Asia and Africa, to understand the size and range of changing delivery location in Asia and Africa. We have reviewed the policies, programs and financing experiences in multiple countries to understand the drivers of changing practices, and the consequences for maternal and neonatal health and the health systems serving women and newborns. And finally, we have considered what implications changes in delivery location will have for maternal and neonatal care strategies as we move forward into the next stage of global action. As a result of our analysis we make four major policy recommendations. (1) An expansion of investment in mid-level facilities for delivery services and a shift away from low-volume rural delivery facilities. (2) Assured access for rural women through funding for transport infrastructure, travel vouchers, targeted subsidies for services and residence support before and after delivery. (3) Increased specialization of maternity facilities and dedicated maternity wards within larger institutions. And (4) a renewed focus on quality improvements at all levels of delivery facilities, in both private and public settings.

Investigating dynamic sources of pharmaceuticals: Demographic and seasonal use are more important than down-the-drain disposal in wastewater effluent in a University City setting.

Pharmaceutical pollution in surface waters poses risks to human and ecosystem health. Wastewater treatment facilities are primary sources of pharmaceutical pollutants, but little is known about the factors that affect drugs entering the wastewater stream. This paper investigates the effects of student pharmaceutical use and disposal behaviors and an annual demographic shift on pharmaceutical pollution in a university town. We sampled wastewater effluent during a ten-day annual spring student move-out period at the University of Vermont. We then interpreted these data in light of survey results that investigated pharmaceutical purchasing, use, and disposal practices among the university student population. Surveys indicated that the majority of student respondents purchased pharmaceuticals in the previous year. Many students reported having leftover drugs, though only a small portion disposed of them, mainly in the trash. We detected 51 pharmaceuticals in 80% or more of the wastewater effluent samples collected over the ten-day sampling period. Several increased in concentration after students left the area. Concentrations of caffeine and nicotine decreased weakly. Drug disposal among this university student population does not appear to be a major source of pharmaceuticals in wastewater. Increases in pharmaceutical concentration after the students left campus can be tied to an increase in the seasonal use of allergy medications directly related to pollen, as well as a demographic shift to a year-round older population, which supports national data that older people use larger volumes and different types of pharmaceuticals than the younger student population.