Protracted Indian monsoon droughts of the past millennium and their societal impacts.

Protracted droughts lasting years to decades constitute severe threats to human welfare across the Indian subcontinent. Such events are, however, rare during the instrumental period (ca. since 1871 CE). In contrast, the historic documentary evidence indicates the repeated occurrences of protracted droughts in the region during the preinstrumental period implying that either the instrumental observations underestimate the full spectrum of monsoon variability or the historic accounts overestimate the severity and duration of the past droughts. Here we present a temporally precise speleothem-based oxygen isotope reconstruction of the Indian summer monsoon precipitation variability from Mawmluh cave located in northeast India. Our data reveal that protracted droughts, embedded within multidecadal intervals of reduced monsoon rainfall, frequently occurred over the past millennium. These extreme events are in striking temporal synchrony with the historically documented droughts, famines, mass mortality events, and geopolitical changes in the Indian subcontinent. Our findings necessitate reconsideration of the region's current water resources, sustainability, and mitigation policies that discount the possibility of protracted droughts in the future.

Recurrent droughts increase risk of cascading tipping events by outpacing adaptive capacities in the Amazon rainforest.

Tipping elements are nonlinear subsystems of the Earth system that have the potential to abruptly shift to another state if environmental change occurs close to a critical threshold with large consequences for human societies and ecosystems. Among these tipping elements may be the Amazon rainforest, which has been undergoing intensive anthropogenic activities and increasingly frequent droughts. Here, we assess how extreme deviations from climatological rainfall regimes may cause local forest collapse that cascades through the coupled forest-climate system. We develop a conceptual dynamic network model to isolate and uncover the role of atmospheric moisture recycling in such tipping cascades. We account for heterogeneity in critical thresholds of the forest caused by adaptation to local climatic conditions. Our results reveal that, despite this adaptation, a future climate characterized by permanent drought conditions could trigger a transition to an open canopy state particularly in the southern Amazon. The loss of atmospheric moisture recycling contributes to one-third of the tipping events. Thus, by exceeding local thresholds in forest adaptive capacity, local climate change impacts may propagate to other regions of the Amazon basin, causing a risk of forest shifts even in regions where critical thresholds have not been crossed locally.

Exposure of protected areas in Central America to extreme weather events.

Central America and the Caribbean are regularly battered by megadroughts, heavy rainfall, heat waves, and tropical cyclones. Although 21st-century climate change is expected to increase the frequency, intensity, and duration of these extreme weather events (EWEs), their incidence in regional protected areas (PAs) remains poorly explored. We examined historical and projected EWEs across the region based on 32 metrics that describe distinct dimensions (i.e., intensity, duration, and frequency) of heat waves, cyclones, droughts, and rainfall and compared trends in PAs with trends in unprotected lands. From the early 21st century onward, exposure to EWEs increased across the region, and PAs were predicted to be more exposed to climate extremes than unprotected areas (as shown by autoregressive model coefficients at p < 0.05 significance level). This was particularly true for heat waves, which were projected to have a significantly higher average (tested by Wilcoxon tests at p < 0.01) intensity and duration, and tropical cyclones, which affected PAs more severely in carbon-intensive scenarios. PAs were also predicted to be significantly less exposed to droughts and heavy rainfall than unprotected areas (tested by Wilcoxon tests at p < 0.01). However, droughts that could threaten connectivity between PAs are increasingly common in this region. We estimated that approximately 65% of the study area will experience at least one drought episode that is more intense and longer lasting than previous droughts. Collectively, our results highlight that new conservation strategies adapted to threats associated with EWEs need to be tailored and implemented promptly. Unless urgent action is taken, significant damage may be inflicted on the unique biodiversity of the region.

Ciclones, olas de calor, sequías y lluvias intensas son eventos comunes en Centroamérica y el Caribe, cuya frecuencia, intensidad y duración se espera aumente durante el siglo XXI a causa del cambio climático. Sin embargo, en la actualidad, se desconoce cuál será la incidencia de estos eventos meteorológicos extremos (EME) dentro de las áreas protegidas. En este estudio examinamos la exposición histórica y futura a los extremos climáticos y comparamos el grado de exposición dentro y fuera de las áreas protegidas de toda la región por medio de 32 métricas que describen distintas dimensiones (intensidad, duración y frecuencia) de las olas de calor, los ciclones, las sequías y las precipitaciones. Los resultados indican que a medida que aumente el número de EME, las áreas protegidas estarán más expuestas a los extremos climáticos que las áreas no protegidas. Esto es especialmente cierto en el caso de las olas de calor, que, según las proyecciones, tendrán una intensidad y una duración medias significativamente mayores, y de los ciclones tropicales, que afectarán más gravemente a las zonas protegidas en los escenarios intensivos en carbono. Nuestros resultados también indican que las zonas protegidas estarán significativamente menos expuestas a sequías o lluvias torrenciales que las zonas no protegidas. Sin embargo, las sequías que podrían amenazar la conectividad entre áreas protegidas son cada vez más frecuentes en esta región. Se estima que aproximadamente el 65% del área de estudio experimentará al menos un episodio de sequía más intenso y duradero que las sequías anteriores. En conjunto, nuestros resultados ponen de relieve la necesidad de diseñar y aplicar con prontitud nuevas estrategias de conservación adaptadas a las amenazas asociadas a los EWE. A menos que se tomen medidas urgentes, la biodiversidad única de la región podría sufrir daños considerables.

Climate-dependent plant responses to earthworms in two land-use types.

Plant nutrient uptake and productivity are driven by a multitude of factors that have been modified by human activities, like climate change and the activity of decomposers. However, interactive effects of climate change and key decomposer groups like earthworms have rarely been studied. In a field microcosm experiment, we investigated the effects of a mean future climate scenario with warming (+ 0.50 °C to + 0.62 °C) and altered precipitation (+ 10% in spring and autumn, - 20% in summer) and earthworms (anecic-two Lumbricus terrestris, endogeic-four Allolobophora chlorotica and both together within 10 cm diameter tubes) on plant biomass and stoichiometry in two land-use types (intensively used meadow and conventional farming). We found little evidence for earthworm effects on aboveground biomass. However, future climate increased above- (+40.9%) and belowground biomass (+44.7%) of grass communities, which was mainly driven by production of the dominant Festulolium species during non-summer drought periods, but decreased the aboveground biomass (- 36.9%) of winter wheat. Projected climate change and earthworms interactively affected the N content and C:N ratio of grasses. Earthworms enhanced the N content (+1.2%) thereby decreasing the C:N ratio (- 4.1%) in grasses, but only under ambient climate conditions. The future climate treatment generally decreased the N content of grasses (aboveground: - 1.1%, belowground: - 0.15%) and winter wheat (- 0.14%), resulting in an increase in C:N ratio of grasses (aboveground: + 4.2%, belowground: +6.3%) and wheat (+5.9%). Our results suggest that climate change diminishes the positive effects of earthworms on plant nutrient uptakes due to soil water deficit, especially during summer drought.

Impact of drought on mental and behavioral disorders, contributions of research in a climate change context. A narrative review.

Mental and behavioral disorders are an important public health problem and constitute a priority for the WHO, whose recommendations include the surveillance of their risk factors. On the other hand, drought episodes have been increasing in frequency and severity in Europe since 1980. Therefore, to review the present knowledge about the impact of drought on mental and behavioral disorders, in the present climate change context, and to underline potential research gaps, could be of major interest. Thus, we performed a narrative review using online academic databases with the aim of identifying relevant literature about the impact of drought on mental and behavioral disorders. To the best of our knowledge, no study in Europe quantifies the potential association between drought and mental disorders. A limited number of studies have found significant associations between droughts (with different temporal ranges) and various measures of mental health. However, according to our review, only three of them quantified the association between drought and objective mental health outcomes, such as number of emergencies due to clinically diagnosed mental disorders or suicides. Additionally, few studies used specific indices as a measure of drought; and finally, as far as authors are aware, none of them has analyzed this relationship adjusting for various other potential environmental confounders. Moreover, the eventual association could vary between different geographical areas within the same country. Therefore, national and regional studies would be especially necessary. Thus, there is a need for specific national and regional studies, in Europe and globally, that assess the impact of specific indices of drought (with different temporal ranges) on objective mental health outcomes controlling for potential environmental confounders. Moreover, the quantification of its cost would be necessary for health prioritization, evidence-based policies and strategic health planning.

Predicting drought stress under climate change in the Southern Central Highlands of Vietnam.

In the Southern Central Highlands of Vietnam, droughts occur more frequently, causing significant damage and impacting the region's socio-economic development. During the dry season, rivers, streams, and reservoirs often face limited water availability, exacerbated in recent years by increasing drought severity. Recognizing the escalating severity of droughts, the study offers a novel contribution by conducting a comprehensive analysis of surface water resource distribution in Lam Dong province, focusing on assessing water demand for agricultural production, a crucial factor in ensuring sustainable crop growth. Two scenarios, Current-2020 (SC1) and Climate Change-2025 (SC2), are simulated, with SC2 based on climate change and sea level rise scenarios provided by the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE). These scenarios are integrated into the MIKE-NAM and MIKE-HYDRO basin models, allowing for a thorough assessment of the water balance of Lam Dong province. Furthermore, the study utilizes the Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) to measure drought severity, revealing prevalent dry and moderately droughty conditions in highland districts with rainfall frequency ranging from 50 to 85%. Severe drought conditions occur with a rainfall frequency of 95%, indicating an increased frequency and geographic scope of severe droughts. Additionally, the study highlights that under abnormally dry conditions, water demand for the winter-spring crop is consistently met at 100%, decreasing to 85%, 80%, and less than 75% for moderate, severe, and extreme droughts, respectively. These findings offer insights into future drought conditions in the Lam Dong province and their potential impact on irrigation capacity, crucial for adaptation strategies.

A comprehensive resilience assessment of Mexican tree species and their relationship with drought events over the last century.

The resilience of forests to drought events has become a major natural resource sustainability concern, especially in response to climate change. Yet, little is known about the legacy effects of repeated droughts, and tree species ability to respond across environmental gradients. In this study, we used a tree-ring database (121 sites) to evaluate the overall resilience of tree species to drought events in the last century. We investigated how climate and geography affected the response at the species level. We evaluated temporal trends of resilience using a predictive mixed linear modeling approach. We found that pointer years (e.g., tree growth reduction) occurred during 11.3% of the 20th century, with an average decrease in tree growth of 66% compared to the previous period. The occurrence of pointer years was associated with negative values of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI, 81.6%) and Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI, 77.3%). Tree species differed in their resilience capacity, however, species inhabiting xeric conditions were less resistant but with higher recovery rates (e.g., Abies concolor, Pinus lambertiana, and Pinus jeffreyi). On average, tree species needed 2.7 years to recover from drought events, with extreme cases requiring more than a decade to reach pre-drought tree growth rates. The main abiotic factor related to resilience was precipitation, confirming that some tree species are better adapted to resist the effects of droughts. We found a temporal variation for all tree resilience indices (scaled to 100), with a decreasing resistance (-0.56 by decade) and resilience (-0.22 by decade), but with a higher recovery (+1.72 by decade) and relative resilience rate (+0.33 by decade). Our results emphasize the importance of time series of forest resilience, particularly by distinguishing the species-level response in the context of legacy of droughts, which are likely to become more frequent and intense under a changing climate.

Significant effects of precipitation frequency on soil respiration and its components-A global synthesis.

Global warming intensifies the hydrological cycle, which results in changes in precipitation regime (frequency and amount), and will likely have significant impacts on soil respiration (Rs ). Although the responses of Rs to changes in precipitation amount have been extensively studied, there is little consensus on how Rs will be affected by changes in precipitation frequency (PF) across the globe. Here, we synthesized the field observations from 296 published papers to quantify the effects of PF on Rs and its components using meta-analysis. Our results indicated that the effects of PF on Rs decreased with an increase in background mean annual precipitation. When the data were grouped by climate conditions, increased PF showed positive effects on Rs under the arid condition but not under the semi-humid or humid conditions, whereas decreased PF suppressed Rs across all the climate conditions. The positive effects of increased PF mainly resulted from the positive response of heterotrophic respiration under the arid condition while the negative effects of decreased PF were mainly attributed to the reductions in root biomass and respiration. Overall, our global synthesis provided for the first time a comprehensive analysis of the divergent effects of PF on Rs and its components across climate regions. This study also provided a framework for understanding and modeling responses of ecosystem carbon cycling to global precipitation change.

Compound droughts slow down the greening of the Earth.

Vegetation response to soil and atmospheric drought has raised extensively controversy, however, the relative contributions of soil drought, atmospheric drought, and their compound droughts on global vegetation growth remain unclear. Combining the changes in soil moisture (SM), vapor pressure deficit (VPD), and vegetation growth (normalized difference vegetation index [NDVI]) during 1982-2015, here we evaluated the trends of these three drought types and quantified their impacts on global NDVI. We found that global VPD has increased 0.22 ± 0.05 kPa·decade-1 during 1982-2015, and this trend was doubled after 1996 (0.32 ± 0.16 kPa·decade-1 ) than before 1996 (0.16 ± 0.15 kPa·decade-1 ). Regions with large increase in VPD trend generally accompanied with decreasing trend in SM, leading to a widespread increasing trend in compound droughts across 37.62% land areas. We further found compound droughts dominated the vegetation browning since late 1990s, contributing to a declined NDVI of 64.56%. Earth system models agree with the dominant role of compound droughts on vegetation growth, but their negative magnitudes are considerably underestimated, with half of the observed results (34.48%). Our results provided the evidence of compound droughts-induced global vegetation browning, highlighting the importance of correctly simulating the ecosystem-scale response to the under-appreciated exposure to compound droughts as it will increase with climate change.

Do precipitation anomalies influence short-term mobility in sub-saharan Africa? An observational study from 23 countries.

BACKGROUND: Precipitation anomalies are associated with a number of poor health outcomes. One potential consequence of precipitation extremes is human geographic mobility. We evaluated the associations between precipitation anomalies (droughts and heavy rains) and short-term mobility in 23 sub-Saharan African countries by linking satellite data on precipitation to cross-sectional representative surveys. METHODS: Using data from 23 Demographic and Health Surveys from 2011 to 2017, we estimated the associations between deviations in long-term rainfall trends and short-term mobility among 294,539 women and 136,415 men over 15 years of age. We fit multivariable logistic regression models to assess potential non-linear relationships between rainfall deviations and short-term mobility, adjusting for survey month and socio-demographic covariates, and stratified by participant gender. Furthermore, we assessed whether these associations differed by marital status. RESULTS: Rainfall deviations were associated with short-term mobility among women, but not men. The relationship between rainfall deviations and mobility among women was U-shaped, such that women had increased marginal probabilities of mobility in instances of both lower and heavier precipitation. Differences between married and unmarried women were also revealed: among married women, we found positive associations between both rainfall deviation extremes (drought and heavy rains) and mobility; however, among unmarried women, there was only a positive association for heavy rains. CONCLUSION: Precipitation anomalies were associated with short-term mobility among women, which may be in turn associated with poor health outcomes. More research with longitudinal data is needed to elaborate the associations between weather shocks, mobility, and downstream health impacts.

Human responses to climate and ecosystem change in ancient Arabia.

Recent interdisciplinary archaeological and paleoenvironmental research in the Arabian peninsula is transforming our understanding of ancient human societies in their ecological contexts. Hypotheses about the cultural and demographic impacts of a series of droughts have primarily been developed from the environmental and archaeological records of southeastern Arabia. Here we examine these human-environment interactions by integrating ongoing research from northern Arabia. While droughts and extreme environmental variability in the Holocene had significant impacts on human societies, responses varied across space and time and included mobility at various scales, as well as diverse social, economic and cultural adaptations, such as the management of water resources, the introduction of pastoral lifeways, and the construction of diverse types of stone structures. The long-term story of human societies in Arabia is one of resilience in the face of climate change, yet future challenges include rising temperatures and flash flooding. The history of human responses to climatic and ecosystem changes in Arabia can provide important lessons for a planet facing catastrophic global warming and environmental change.

Drought patterns: their spatiotemporal variability and impacts on maize production in Limpopo province, South Africa.

Due to global climate change, droughts are likely to become more frequent and more severe in many regions such as in South Africa. In Limpopo, observed high climate variability and projected future climate change will likely increase future maize production risks. This paper evaluates drought patterns in Limpopo at two representative sites. We studied how drought patterns are projected to change under future climatic conditions as an important step in identifying adaptation measures (e.g., breeding maize ideotypes resilient to future conditions). Thirty-year time horizons were analyzed, considering three emission scenarios and five global climate models. We applied the WOFOST crop model to simulate maize crop growth and yield formation over South Africa's summer season. We considered three different crop emergence dates. Drought indices indicated that mainly in the scenario SSP5-8.5 (2051-2080), Univen and Syferkuil will experience worsened drought conditions (DC) in the future. Maize yield tends to decline and future changes in the emergence date seem to impact yield significantly. A possible alternative is to delay sowing date to November or December to reduce the potential yield losses. The grain filling period tends to decrease in the future, and a decrease in the duration of the growth cycle is very likely. Combinations of changed sowing time with more drought tolerant maize cultivars having a longer post-anthesis phase will likely reduce the potential negative impact of climate change on maize.

Between flood and drought: How cities are facing water surplus and scarcity.

Droughts and floods are weather-related hazards affecting cities in all climate zones and causing human deaths and material losses on all inhabited continents. The aim of this article is to review, analyse and discuss in detail the problems faced by urban ecosystems due to water surplus and scarcity, as well as the need of adaptation to climate change taking into account the legislation, current challenges and knowledge gaps. The literature review indicated that urban floods are much more recognised than urban droughts. Amongst floods, flash floods are currently the most challenging, which by their nature are difficult to monitor. Research and adaptation measures related to water-released hazards use cutting-edge technologies for risk assessment, decision support systems, or early warning systems, among others, but in all areas knowledge gaps for urban droughts are evident. Increasing urban retention and introducing Low Impact Development and Nature-based Solutions is a remedy for both droughts and floods in cities. There is the need to integrate flood and drought disaster risk reduction strategies and creating a holistic approach.

The economics impacts of long-run droughts: Challenges, gaps, and way forward.

Quantifying drought's economic impacts has been key for decision-making to build future strategies and improve the development and implementation of proactive plans. However, climate change is changing drought frequency, intensity, and durability. These changes imply modifications of their economic impact, as longer droughts result in greater cumulative economic losses for water users. Though the longer the drought lasts, other factors also play a crucial role in its economic outcomes, such as Infrastructure capacity (IC), the Amount of Water in Storage (AWS) in reservoirs and aquifers, and short- and long-term responses to it. This study proposes and applies an analytical framework for the economic assessment of long-run droughts, assessing and explaining central Chile megadrought economic effects through the factors that begin to influence the economic impact level in this setting. High levels of both IC and the AWS, as well as short- and long-term responses of water users, allow for high resilience to long-run droughts, tolerating extraordinary water disruption in its society with relatively low total economic impacts. Despite this adaptability, long-term droughts bring places to a water-critical threshold where long-term adaptation strategies may be less flexible than short-term strategies, escalating the adverse economic effects. This fact suggests that the economic evaluation of megadrought needs to focus on future tipping points (substantial water scarcity). The tipping point depends on the IC, how water users manage the AWS, and adaptation strategies. Establishing the tipping point should be a priority for future interdisciplinary research.

Unexpected consequences of afforestation in degraded drylands: Divergent impacts on soil and vegetation.

Forestry has long been considered an effective means of restoring degraded drylands worldwide. Often, afforestation in such lands relies on the establishment of runoff harvesting systems that are formed as contour bench terraces on hillslopes, increasing water availability for the planted trees and shrubs. The construction of terraces requires intensive earthworks by heavy machinery. This study assessed the long-term (>10 yrs) effects of forestry-related land-use change on soil properties and herbaceous vegetation in 16-year-old and 12-year-old afforestation sites (established in 2005 and 2009), and in nearby control ("natural") areas in the semi-arid northern Negev, Israel. Mean herbaceous vegetation height in the 2005 afforestation sites (12.1 cm) was significantly (P = 0.0009) and 23% greater than in the control areas (9.8 cm), whereas in the 2009 afforestation sites (6.2 cm) it was 37% lesser than in the control areas. Mean herbaceous vegetation aboveground biomass was similar in the 2005 afforestation (0.39 Mg ha-1) and control areas (0.38 Mg ha-1), and almost significantly (P = 0.0510) and twofold greater than in the 2009 afforestation sites (0.19 Mg ha-1). The effect of hillslope aspect on these variables was substantial; their mean values were higher in the northern (mesic) hillslopes than in the southern (xeric) hillslopes. Soil samples were obtained from depths of 0-5 and 5-10 cm and physio-chemo-biological properties were assessed in the laboratory. The overall soil quality - as calculated by two soil quality indices (SQIs), including the generalized SQI (SQIgen) and the minimum dataset SQI (SQIMDS) - was significantly (P < 0.0001 for both indices) and 13-22% greater in the control areas (0.52 and 0.61, respectively) than that in the afforestation treatments (0.44-0.46 and 0.50-0.51, respectively). These results are generally attributed to the removal of soil's A-horizon during earthworks, and the exposure of the underlying B-horizon. The similar SQI values of both hillslope aspects, as well as of both soil depths, indicate the generally degraded state of the entire region. In conclusion, while contour bench terracing may facilitate the recovery of herbacaeous vegetation to some extent, the effectiveness of this practice for soil restoration is questionable. Overall, insights of this study demonstrate a caveat that converting natural drylands to forestry systems may not yield sufficient ecological benefits, and therefore should be implemented with caution.

Hydraulically-vulnerable trees survive on deep-water access during droughts in a tropical forest.

Deep-water access is arguably the most effective, but under-studied, mechanism that plants employ to survive during drought. Vulnerability to embolism and hydraulic safety margins can predict mortality risk at given levels of dehydration, but deep-water access may delay plant dehydration. Here, we tested the role of deep-water access in enabling survival within a diverse tropical forest community in Panama using a novel data-model approach. We inversely estimated the effective rooting depth (ERD, as the average depth of water extraction), for 29 canopy species by linking diameter growth dynamics (1990-2015) to vapor pressure deficit, water potentials in the whole-soil column, and leaf hydraulic vulnerability curves. We validated ERD estimates against existing isotopic data of potential water-access depths. Across species, deeper ERD was associated with higher maximum stem hydraulic conductivity, greater vulnerability to xylem embolism, narrower safety margins, and lower mortality rates during extreme droughts over 35 years (1981-2015) among evergreen species. Species exposure to water stress declined with deeper ERD indicating that trees compensate for water stress-related mortality risk through deep-water access. The role of deep-water access in mitigating mortality of hydraulically-vulnerable trees has important implications for our predictive understanding of forest dynamics under current and future climates.

Patterns of post-drought recovery are strongly influenced by drought duration, frequency, post-drought wetness, and bioclimatic setting.

Understanding vegetation recovery after drought is critical for projecting vegetation dynamics in future climates. From 1997 to 2009, Australia experienced a long-lasting drought known as the Millennium Drought (MD), which led to widespread reductions in vegetation productivity. However, vegetation recovery post-drought and its determinants remain unclear. This study leverages remote sensing products from different sources-fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (FPAR), based on optical data, and canopy density, derived from microwave data-and random forest algorithms to assess drought recovery over Australian natural vegetation during a 20-year period centered on the MD. Post-drought recovery was prevalent across the continent, with 6 out of 10 drought events seeing full recovery within about 6 months. Canopy density was slower to recover than leaf area seen in FPAR. The probability of full recovery was most strongly controlled by drought return interval, post-drought hydrological condition, and drought length. Full recovery was seldom observed when drought events occurred at intervals of 3 months or less, and moderately dry (standardized water balance anomaly [SWBA] within [-1, -0.76]) post-drought conditions resulted in less complete recovery than wet (SWBA > 0.3) post-drought conditions. Press droughts, which are long term but not extreme, delayed recovery more than pulse droughts (short term but extreme) and led to a higher frequency of persistent decline. Following press droughts, the frequency of persistent decline differed little among biome types but peaked in semi-arid regions across aridity levels. Forests and savanna required the longest recovery times for press drought, while grasslands were the slowest to recover for pulse drought. This study provides quantitative thresholds that could be used to improve the modeling of ecosystem dynamics post-drought.

Exploring relationships between drought and epidemic cholera in Africa using generalised linear models.

BACKGROUND: Temperature and precipitation are known to affect Vibrio cholerae outbreaks. Despite this, the impact of drought on outbreaks has been largely understudied. Africa is both drought and cholera prone and more research is needed in Africa to understand cholera dynamics in relation to drought. METHODS: Here, we analyse a range of environmental and socioeconomic covariates and fit generalised linear models to publicly available national data, to test for associations with several indices of drought and make cholera outbreak projections to 2070 under three scenarios of global change, reflecting varying trajectories of CO2 emissions, socio-economic development, and population growth. RESULTS: The best-fit model implies that drought is a significant risk factor for African cholera outbreaks, alongside positive effects of population, temperature and poverty and a negative effect of freshwater withdrawal. The projections show that following stringent emissions pathways and expanding sustainable development may reduce cholera outbreak occurrence in Africa, although these changes were spatially heterogeneous. CONCLUSIONS: Despite an effect of drought in explaining recent cholera outbreaks, future projections highlighted the potential for sustainable development gains to offset drought-related impacts on cholera risk. Future work should build on this research investigating the impacts of drought on cholera on a finer spatial scale and potential non-linear relationships, especially in high-burden countries which saw little cholera change in the scenario analysis.

Burning in southwestern Brazilian Amazonia, 2016-2019.

Fire is one of the most powerful modifiers of the Amazonian landscape and knowledge about its drivers is needed for planning control and suppression. A plethora of factors may play a role in the annual dynamics of fire frequency, spanning the biophysical, climatic, socioeconomic and institutional dimensions. To uncover the main forces currently at play, we investigated the area burned in both forested and deforested areas in the outstanding case of Brazil's state of Acre, in southwestern Amazonia. We mapped burn scars in already-deforested areas and intact forest based on satellite images from the Landsat series analyzed between 2016 and 2019. The mapped burnings in already-deforested areas totalled 550,251 ha. In addition, we mapped three forest fires totaling 34,084 ha. Fire and deforestation were highly correlated, and the latter occurred mainly in federal government lands, with protected areas showing unprecedented forest fire levels in 2019. These results indicate that Acre state is under increased fire risk even during average rainfall years. The record fires of 2019 may continue if Brazil's ongoing softening of environmental regulations and enforcement is maintained. Acre and other Amazonian states must act quickly to avoid an upsurge of social and economic losses in the coming years.

Element content and expression of genes of interest in guard cells are connected to spatiotemporal variations in stomatal conductance.

Element content and expression of genes of interest on single cell types, such as stomata, provide valuable insights into their specific physiology, improving our understanding of leaf gas exchange regulation. We investigated how far differences in stomatal conductance (gs ) can be ascribed to changes in guard cells functioning in amphistomateous leaves. gs was measured during the day on both leaf sides, on well-watered and drought-stressed trees (two Populus euramericana Moench and two Populus nigra L. genotypes). In parallel, guard cells were dissected for element content and gene expressions analyses. Both were strongly arranged according to genotype, and drought had the lowest impact overall. Normalizing the data by genotype highlighted a structure on the basis of leaf sides and time of day both for element content and gene expression. Guard cells magnesium, phosphorus, and chlorine were the most abundant on the abaxial side in the morning, where gs was at the highest. In contrast, genes encoding H+ -ATPase and aquaporins were usually more abundant in the afternoon, whereas genes encoding Ca2+ -vacuolar antiporters, K+ channels, and ABA-related genes were in general more abundant on the adaxial side. Our work highlights the unique physiology of each leaf side and their analogous rhythmicity through the day.