Resilience assessment in complex natural systems.

Ecological resilience is the capability of an ecosystem to maintain the same structure and function and avoid crossing catastrophic tipping points (i.e. undergoing irreversible regime shifts). While fundamental for management, concrete ways to estimate and interpret resilience in real ecosystems are still lacking. Here, we develop an empirical approach to estimate resilience based on the stochastic cusp model derived from catastrophe theory. The cusp model models tipping points derived from a cusp bifurcation. We extend cusp in order to identify the presence of stable and unstable states in complex natural systems. Our Cusp Resilience Assessment (CUSPRA) has three characteristics: (i) it provides estimates on how likely a system is to cross a tipping point (in the form of a cusp bifurcation) characterized by hysteresis, (ii) it assesses resilience in relation to multiple external drivers and (iii) it produces straightforward results for ecosystem-based management. We validate our approach using simulated data and demonstrate its application using empirical time series of an Atlantic cod population and marine ecosystems in the North Sea and the Mediterranean Sea. We show that Cusp Resilience Assessment is a powerful method to empirically estimate resilience in support of a sustainable management of our constantly adapting ecosystems under global climate change.

Incorporation of human-wildlife interactions in ecosystem-based management to enhance conservation of endangered guitarfish.

Growing human use of the marine environment increases the proximity of humans to marine wildlife and thus likely increases human-wildlife interactions. Such interactions influence perceptions of nature and promote or undermine conservation. Despite their importance, human-wildlife interactions are rarely considered in ecosystem-based marine spatial planning (MSP). Ideally, these interactions should be identified and considered in ecosystem-based management (EBM), which is often purported to be the basis for MSP. We used Marxan software and data from a citizen science project documenting location, species, age, sex, and activity type to identify regions along Israel's coast with a high probability of encounters between people and 2 species of guitarfish. We considered the geographic distribution of these encounters and the various activities undertaken by the reporting observers. We ran 4 scenarios in Marxan. Two had conservation goals of 30% and 50% guitarfish habitat protection. In the third and fourth scenarios, we added a 50% conservation goal of human leisure activities to each guitarfish conservation goal. We also conducted a gap analysis between our guitarfish conservation goals and the Israel Nature and Parks Authority's master plan for marine protected areas. We found the park authority was close to meeting the 30% goal but was far from meeting the conservation goal of 50% of guitarfish habitat conservation. Different human uses were more likely to interact with different life stages of guitarfish, and different recreational activities occurred in different areas. Identifying areas of specific human use showed which activities should be addressed in conservation management decisions. Our addition of certain recreational uses to the model of habitat conservation showed how enhancing human dimensions in conservation planning can lead to more holistic ecosystem-based conservation necessary for effective marine planning.

Incorporación de las interacciones humano­fauna dentro de la gestión basada en el ecosistema para mejorar la conservación del pez guitarra en peligro Resumen El uso creciente que el humano le da al mar incrementa la cercanía de las personas con la fauna marina, lo que probablemente incrementa las interacciones humano­fauna. Dichas interacciones influyen sobre las percepciones que se tienen de la naturaleza y promueven debilitan la conservación. A pesar de su importancia, pocas veces se consideran las relaciones humano­fauna dentro de la planeación espacial basada en ecosistemas marinos (PEM). Lo ideal debería ser la identificación y consideración de estas interacciones dentro de la gestión basada en el ecosistema (GBE), la cual con frecuencia se considera como la base de la PEM. Usamos software Marxan y datos de un proyecto de ciencia ciudadana que documenta la ubicación, especie, edad, sexo y tipo de actividad para identificar las regiones de la costa de Israel con una alta probabilidad de encuentros entre las personas y dos especies de pez guitarra. Consideramos la distribución geográfica de estos encuentros y las diferentes actividades que realizan los observadores. En Marxan corrimos cuatro escenarios. Dos de los escenarios contaban objetivos de conservación del 30% y 50% de la protección del hábitat del pez guitarra. En los otros dos escenarios, añadimos un objetivo de conservación de 50% de las actividades humanas de recreación a los objetivos uno y dos. También realizamos un análisis de brecha entre los objetivos de conservación del pez guitarra y el plan maestro para las áreas marinas protegidas de la Autoridad de Parques y Naturaleza de Israel. Descubrimos que esta autoridad estaba cerca de lograr el objetivo del 30% pero lejos del de 50% de la conservación del hábitat del pez guitarra. Fue más probable que los diferentes usos humanos interactuaran con diferentes estadios de vida del pez guitarra y las diversas actividades recreativas ocurrieron en áreas distintas. La identificación de las áreas con un uso humano específico mostró cuáles actividades deberían abordarse en las decisiones de gestión de la conservación. La suma de ciertos usos recreativos al modelo de conservación del hábitat mostró cómo aumentar las dimensiones humanas en la planeación de la conservación puede derivar en una conservación basada en el ecosistema más holística, necesaria para la planeación marina eficiente.

Cross-scale and integrative prioritization of multi-functionality in large river floodplains.

Floodplains provide an extraordinary quantity and quality of ecosystem services (ES) but are among the most threatened ecosystems worldwide. The uses and transformations of floodplains differ widely within and between regions. In recent decades, the diverse pressures and requirements for flood protection, drinking water resource protection, biodiversity, and adaptation to climate change have shown that multi-functional floodplain management is necessary. Such an integrative approach has been hampered by the various interests of different sectors of society, as represented by multiple stakeholders and legal principles. We present an innovative framework for integrated floodplain management building up on ES multi-functionality and stakeholder involvement, forming a scientifically based decision-support to prioritize adaptive management measures responding at the basin and local scales. To demonstrate its potential and limitations, we applied this cross-scaled approach in the world's most international and culturally diverse basin, the Danube River Basin in Europe. We conducted large-scale evaluations of anthropogenic pressures and ES capacities on the one hand and participatory modelling of the local socio-ecohydrological systems on the other hand. Based on our assessments of 14 ES and 8 pressures, we recommend conservation measures along the lower and middle Danube, restoration measures along the upper-middle Danube and Sava, and mitigation measures in wide parts of the Yantra, Tisza and upper Danube rivers. In three case study areas across the basin, stakeholder perceptions were generally in line with the large-scale evaluations on ES and pressures. The positive outcomes of jointly modelled local measures and large-scale synergistic ES relationships suggest that multi-functionality can be enhanced across scales. Trade-offs were mainly present with terrestrial provisioning ES at the basin scale and locally with recreational activities. Utilizing the commonalities between top-down prioritizations and bottom-up participatory approaches and learning from their discrepancies could make ecosystem-based management more effective and inclusive.

Panel-based assessment of ecosystem condition as a platform for adaptive and knowledge driven management.

Ecosystems are subjected to increasing exposure to multiple anthropogenic drivers. This has led to the development of national and international accounting systems describing the condition of ecosystems, often based on few, highly aggregated indicators. Such accounting systems would benefit from a stronger theoretical and empirical underpinning of ecosystem dynamics. Operational tools for ecosystem management require understanding of natural ecosystem dynamics, consideration of uncertainty at all levels, means for quantifying driver-response relationships behind observed and anticipated future trajectories of change, and an efficient and transparent synthesis to inform knowledge-driven decision processes. There is hence a gap between highly aggregated indicator-based accounting tools and the need for explicit understanding and assessment of the links between multiple drivers and ecosystem condition as a foundation for informed and adaptive ecosystem management. We describe here an approach termed PAEC (Panel-based Assessment of Ecosystem Condition) for combining quantitative and qualitative elements of evidence and uncertainties into an integrated assessment of ecosystem condition at spatial scales relevant to management and monitoring. The PAEC protocol is founded on explicit predictions, termed phenomena, of how components of ecosystem structure and functions are changing as a result of acting drivers. The protocol tests these predictions with observations and combines these tests to assess the change in the condition of the ecosystem as a whole. PAEC includes explicit, quantitative or qualitative, assessments of uncertainty at different levels and integrates these in the final assessment. As proofs-of-concept we summarize the application of the PAEC protocol to a marine and a terrestrial ecosystem in Norway.

An anchovy ecosystem indicator of marine predator foraging and reproduction.

Forage fishes are key energy conduits that transfer primary and secondary productivity to higher trophic levels. As novel environmental conditions caused by climate change alter ecosystems and predator-prey dynamics, there is a critical need to understand how forage fish control bottom-up forcing of food web dynamics. In the northeast Pacific, northern anchovy (Engraulis mordax) is an important forage species with high interannual variability in population size that subsequently impacts the foraging and reproductive ecology of marine predators. Anchovy habitat suitability from a species distribution model (SDM) was assessed as an indicator of the diet, distribution and reproduction of four predator species. Across 22 years (1998-2019), this anchovy ecosystem indicator (AEI) was significantly positively correlated with diet composition of all species and the distribution of common murres (Uria aalge), Brandt's cormorants (Phalacrocorax penicillatus) and California sea lions (Zalophus californianus), but not rhinoceros auklets (Cerorhinca monocerata). The capacity for the AEI to explain variability in predator reproduction varied by species but was strongest with cormorants and sea lions. The AEI demonstrates the utility of forage SDMs in creating ecosystem indicators to guide ecosystem-based management.

Transient demographic dynamics of recovering fish populations shaped by past climate variability, harvest, and management.

Large-scale commercial harvesting and climate-induced fluctuations in ocean properties shape the dynamics of marine populations as interdependent drivers at varied timescales. Persistent selective removals of larger, older members of a population can distort its demographic structure, eroding resilience to fluctuations in habitat conditions and thus amplifying volatility in transient dynamics. Many historically depleted marine fish stocks have begun showing signs of recovery in recent decades following the implementation of stricter management measures. But these interventions coincide with accelerated changes in the oceans triggered by increasingly warmer, more variable climates. Applying multilevel models to annual estimates of demographic metrics of 38 stocks comprising 11 species across seven northeast Atlantic ecoregions, this study explores how time-varying local and regional climates contributed to the transient dynamics of recovering populations exposed to variable fishing pressures moderated by management actions. Analyses reveal that progressive reductions in fishing pressure and shifting climate conditions discontinuously shaped rebuilding patterns of the stocks through restorations of maternal demographic structure (reversing age truncation) and reproductive capacity. As the survival rate and demographic structure of reproductive fish improved, transient growth became less sensitive to variability in recruitment and juvenile survival and more to that in adult survival. As the biomass of reproductive fish rose, recruitment success also became increasingly regulated by density-dependent processes involving higher numbers of older fish. When reductions in fishing pressure were insufficient or delayed, however, stocks became further depleted, with more eroded demographic structures. Although warmer local climates in spawning seasons promoted recruitment success in some ecoregions, changing climates in recent decades began adversely affecting reproductive performances overall, amplifying sensitivities to recruitment variability. These shared patterns underscore the value of demographic transients in developing robust strategies for managing marine resources. Such strategies could form the foundation for effective applications of adaptive measures resilient to future environmental change.

Browning of boreal lakes: Do public perceptions and governance align with the biological foundations?

Browning of surface waters, also known as brownification, is a process of decreasing water transparency, particularly in boreal lakes surrounded by intensively managed forests and wetlands. In this paper, we review the ecological consequences and ecosystem-based management (EBM) of browning through a systematic review approach and adopt an interdisciplinary approach to formulating new governance of this complex phenomenon. To understand the effects of browning on the recreational value of freshwaters, we present primary survey data on public perceptions of recreational fishing tourists on water quality in Finland. We identify a need to develop EBM beyond the EU's Water Framework Directive (WFD) to fully account for the extensive implications of browning. We also highlight the need for a better understanding of the within-lake microbial processes to estimate the browning-associated changes in the greenhouse gas balance of lakes. Tourist perceptions of the quality of waterbodies in Finland were largely in agreement with the general proportion of waterbodies classified in a good or excellent ecological status class, but these perceptions may be detached from biological quality assessment criteria. Consequently, we suggest that the EBM of inland waters should improve the utilization of information on not only biogeochemical processes but also users' perspectives on aquatic ecosystems beyond the EU WFD.

Multiscale relationships between humpback whales and forage species hotspots within a large marine ecosystem.

Fluctuations in prey abundance, composition, and distribution can impact predators, and when predators and fisheries target the same species, predators become essential to ecosystem-based management. Because of the difficulty in collecting concomitant predator-prey data at appropriate scales in patchy environments, few studies have identified strong linkages between cetaceans and prey, especially across large geographic areas. During summer 2018, a line-transect survey for cetaceans and coastal pelagic species was conducted over the continental shelf and slope of British Columbia, Canada, and the US West Coast, allowing for a large-scale investigation of predator-prey spatial relationships. We report on a case study of humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) and their primary prey-Pacific herring (Clupea pallasii), northern anchovy (Engraulis mordax), and krill-using generalized additive models to explore the relationships between whale abundance on 10-km transect segments and prey metrics. Prey metrics included direct measures of biomass densities on segments and an original hotspot metric. For each prey species, segments in the upper fifth percentile for biomass density (across all segments) were designated hotspots, and whale counts on a segment were evaluated for their relationship to number of hotspot segments (species-specific and multispecies) within 25, 50, or 100 km. Whale abundance was not strongly related to direct measures of biomass densities, whereas models using hotspot metrics were more effective at describing variation in whale abundance, underscoring that evaluating prey at relevant and measurable scales is critical in patchy, dynamic marine environments. Our analysis highlighted differences in the distribution and prey availability for three humpback whale distinct population segments (DPSs) as defined under the US Endangered Species Act, including threatened and endangered DPSs that forage within the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem. These linkages provide insights into which prey species whales may be targeting in different regions and across multiple scales and, consequently, how climatic variability and anthropogenic risks may differentially impact these distinct predator-prey assemblages. By identifying scale-appropriate prey hotspots that co-occur with humpback whale aggregations, and with targeted, consistent prey sampling and estimations of potential consumption rates by whales, these findings can help inform the conservation and management of humpback whales within an ecosystem-based management framework.

Exploring vulnerabilities of inland fisheries in Indian context with special reference to climate change and their mitigation and adaptation: a review.

Tropical inland capture fisheries are susceptible to a series of vulnerabilities such as habitat destruction, biodiversity loss, pollution, overfishing, invasive species and anthropogenic climate change. A comprehensive review of the impact of climatic uncertainties on Indian inland fisheries has not been adequately attempted yet. Recent approaches emphasizing ecosystem-based management in a regional context, specific to inland fisheries for combating climatic changes, have not been reported to date. The paper presents a critical bibliometric review of the climatic vulnerabilities faced by Indian inland fishery resources and various adaptive and mitigation strategies put forward by the country for the sustainability of the resources. In this communication, a systematic review of the impact of climate change and other stressors on various inland ecosystems of the subcontinent and the ecosystem-based management strategies adopted in India is presented and discussed.

On the architecture of collaboration in inter-organizational natural resource management networks.

This paper reviews the architecture of collaboration that exists within inter-organizational natural resource management (NRM) networks. It presents an integrative conceptual framework designed to help operationalize the multi-level interactions that occur between different dimensions of trust, risk perception, and control as key concepts in inter-organizational collaboration. The objective is to identify and justify a series of propositions considered suitable for assessing inter-organizational NRM network collaboration through empirical work. Such an integrative conceptualization goes beyond the existing trust scholarship related to collaborative NRM, and, we argue, offers a useful starting point for further exploring some of the 'inner' social dynamics affecting collaborative performance using complex systems thinking. To help establish the relevance of the conceptual framework to transboundary resource governance, a survey operationalizing different dimensions of trust, perceived risk, and control is piloted in the Salish Sea, an ecosystem that spans the Canada-US border between British Columbia and Washington State. Key challenges associated with operationalizing the framework and future research needs are identified.

A nature-based solution selection framework: Criteria and processes for addressing hydro-meteorological hazards at open-air laboratories across Europe.

Nature-based solutions (NbS) can be beneficial to help human communities build resilience to climate change by managing and mitigating related hydro-meteorological hazards (HMHs). Substantial research has been carried out in the past on the detection and assessment of HMHs and their derived risks. Yet, knowledge on the performance and functioning of NbS to address these hazards is severely lacking. The latter is exacerbated by the lack of practical and viable approaches that would help identify and select NbS for specific problems. The EU-funded OPERANDUM project established seven Open-Air Laboratories (OALs) across Europe to co-develop, test, and generate an evidence base from innovative NbS deployed to address HMHs such as flooding, droughts, landslides, erosion, and eutrophication. Herein, we detail the original approaches that each OAL followed in the process of identifying and selecting NbS for specific hazards with the aim of proposing a novel, generic framework for selecting NbS. We found that the process of selecting NBS was overall complex and context-specific in all the OALs, and it comprised 26 steps distributed across three stages: (i) Problem recognition, (ii) NbS identification, and (iii) NbS selection. We also identified over 20 selection criteria which, in most cases, were shared across OALs and were chiefly related to sustainability aspects. All the identified NbS were related to the regulation of the water cycle, and they were mostly chosen according to three main factors: (i) hazard type, (ii) hazard scale, and (iii) OAL size. We noticed that OALs exposed to landslides and erosion selected NbS capable to manage water budgets within the soil compartment at the local or landscape scale, while OALs exposed to floods, droughts, and eutrophication selected approaches to managing water transport and storage at the catchment scale. We successfully portrayed a synthesis of the stages and steps followed in the OALs' NbS selection process in a framework. The framework, which reflects the experiences of the stakeholders involved, is inclusive and integrated, and it can serve as a basis to inform NbS selection processes whilst facilitating the organisation of diverse stakeholders working towards finding solutions to natural hazards. We animate the future development of the proposed framework by integrating financial viability steps. We also encourage studies looking into the implementation of the proposed framework through quantitative approaches integrating multi-criteria analyses.

Putting the Pacific marine heatwave into perspective: The response of larval fish off southern California to unprecedented warming in 2014-2016 relative to the previous 65 years.

The 2014-2016 Northeast Pacific marine heatwave (MHW) induced the warmest 3-year period on record in the California Current Ecosystem. We tested whether larval fish assemblage structure, phenology, and diversity dynamics were comparable to past warming events from 1951 to 2013. First, we hypothesized, based on past observations of biological effect of warming, that mesopelagic species with southern distributions relative to southern California and Pacific sardine Sardinops sagax (a coastal pelagic species) would increase during the MHW while northern mesopelagics and northern anchovy Engraulis mordax (coastal pelagic) abundances would decline. Similar to past warming, southern mesopelagics increased and northern mesopelagics decreased. Unexpectedly, however, a common southern mesopelagic, Mexican lampfish Triphoturus mexicanus, was approximately three times more abundant than the previous annual high. Furthermore, whereas sardine abundance did not increase, larval anchovy abundance rose to near-record highs in summer 2016. Second, we hypothesized that fishes would spawn earlier during the MHW. Fishes did not spawn in an earlier season within a year, but five of six southern mesopelagic taxa spawned earlier than typical within winter and spring. Third, we predicted that species richness would increase moderately due to an influx of southern and exodus of northern species. Richness, however, was very high in all seasons and the highest ever during the summer as multiple species with primarily southern distributions were recorded spawning for the first time in southern California. The richness of northern species was also unexpectedly high during the MHW. Northern species likely persisted in the study area because in addition to the warm water, pockets of cold water were consistently present. If, as predicted, conditions similar to the MHW become more common as oceans warm, this unique and largely unexpected combination of fishes may reflect future biological conditions.

Projected climate change impact on a coastal sea-As significant as all current pressures combined.

Climate change influences the ocean's physical and biogeochemical conditions, causing additional pressures on marine environments and ecosystems, now and in the future. Such changes occur in environments that already today suffer under pressures from, for example, eutrophication, pollution, shipping, and more. We demonstrate how to implement climate change into regional marine spatial planning by introducing data of future temperature, salinity, and sea ice cover from regional ocean climate model projections to an existing cumulative impact model. This makes it possible to assess climate change impact in relation to pre-existing cumulative impact from current human activities. Results indicate that end-of-century projected climate change alone is a threat of the same magnitude as the combination of all current pressures to the marine environment. These findings give marine planners and policymakers forewarning on how future climate change may impact marine ecosystems, across space, emission scenarios, and in relation to other pressures.

Tradeoffs of managing cod as a sustainable resource in fluctuating environments.

Sustainable human exploitation of living marine resources stems from a delicate balance between yield stability and population persistence to achieve socioeconomic and conservation goals. But our imperfect knowledge of how oceanic oscillations regulate temporal variation in an exploited species can obscure the risk of missing management targets. We illustrate how applying a management policy to suppress fluctuations in fishery yield in variable environments (prey density and regional climate) can present unintended outcomes in harvested predators and the sustainability of harvesting. Using Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua, an apex predatory fish) in the Barents Sea as a case study we simulate age-structured population and harvest dynamics through time-varying, density-dependent and density-independent processes with a stochastic, process-based model informed by 27-year monitoring data. In this model, capelin (Mallotus villosus, a pelagic forage fish), a primary prey of cod, fluctuations modulate the strength of density-dependent regulation primarily through cannibalistic pressure on juvenile cod survival; sea temperature fluctuations modulate thermal regulation of cod feeding, growth, maturation, and reproduction. We first explore how capelin and temperature fluctuations filtered through cod intrinsic dynamics modify catch stability and then evaluate how management to suppress short-term variability in catch targets alters overharvest risk. Analyses revealed that suppressing year-to-year catch variability impedes management responses to adjust fishing pressure, which becomes progressively out of sync with variations in cod abundance. This asynchrony becomes amplified in fluctuating environments, magnifying the amplitudes of both fishing pressure and cod abundance and then intensifying the density-dependent regulation of juvenile survival through cannibalism. Although these transient dynamics theoretically give higher average catches, emergent, quasicyclic behaviors of the population would increase long-term yield variability and elevate overharvest risk. Management strategies that overlook the interplay of extrinsic (fishing and environment) and intrinsic (life history and demography) fluctuations thus can inadvertently destabilize fish stocks, thereby jeopardizing the sustainability of harvesting. These policy implications underscore the value of ecosystem approaches to designing management measures to sustainably harvest ecologically connected resources while achieving socioeconomic security.

Identifying management opportunities to combat climate, land, and marine threats across less climate exposed coral reefs.

Conserving coral reefs is critical for maintaining marine biodiversity, protecting coastlines, and supporting livelihoods in many coastal communities. Climate change threatens coral reefs globally, but researchers have identified a portfolio of coral reefs (bioclimatic units [BCUs]) that are relatively less exposed to climate impacts and strongly connected to other coral reef systems. These reefs provide a proactive opportunity to secure a long-term future for coral reefs under climate change. To help guide local management efforts, we quantified marine cumulative human impact (CHI) from climate, marine, and land pressures (2013 and from 2008 to 2013) in BCUs and across countries tasked with BCU management. Additionally, we created a management index based on common management measures and policies for each pressure source (climate, marine, and land) to identify a country's intent and commitment to effectively manage these pressures. Twenty-two countries (79%) had increases in CHI from 2008 to 2013. Climate change pressures had the highest proportional contribution to CHI across all reefs and in all but one country (Singapore), but 18 BCUs (35%) and nine countries containing BCUs (32%) had relatively high land and marine impacts. There was a significant positive relationship between climate impact and the climate management index across countries (R2 = 0.43, p = 0.02), potentially signifying that countries with greater climate impacts are more committed to managing them. However, this trend was driven by climate management intent in Fiji and Bangladesh. Our results can be used to guide future fine-scale analyses, national policies, and local management decisions, and our management indices reveal areas where management components can be improved. Cost-effectively managing local pressures (e.g., fishing and nutrients) in BCUs is essential for building a climate-ready future that benefits coral reefs and people.

Identificación de Oportunidades de Gestión para Combatir las Amenazas Climáticas, Marinas y Terrestres en los Arrecifes de Coral Menos Expuestos al Clima Resumen La conservación de los arrecifes de coral es de suma importancia para mantener la biodiversidad marina y para sostener el medio de vida en muchas comunidades costeras. El cambio climático es una amenaza mundial para los arrecifes de coral; aun así, los investigadores han identificado un portafolio de arrecifes de coral (unidades bioclimáticas[UBCs]) que se encuentran relativamente menos expuestos a los impactos climáticos y están conectados a otros sistemas arrecifales. Estos arrecifes proporcionan una oportunidad proactiva de asegurar un futuro a largo plazo para los arrecifes de coral frente al cambio climático. Para ayudar a guiar los esfuerzos locales de manejo, cuantificamos el impacto humano acumulativo (IHA) sobre los ambientes marinos a partir de las presiones climáticas, marinas y terrestres (del 2008 al 2013) en las UBCs y en los países encargados del manejo de estas. Además, creamos un índice de manejo con base en las medidas y políticas comunes de gestión para cada fuente de presión (clima, ambiente marino, suelo) para identificar la intención y el compromiso de cada país para manejar de manera efectiva estas presiones. Veintidós países (79%) tuvieron incrementos en el IHA entre 2008 y 2013. Las presiones por el cambio climático tuvieron la contribución proporcional más alta al IHA en todos los arrecifes y en todos los países excepto uno (Singapur), pero 18 UBCs (35%) y nueve países que cuentan con UBCs (32%) tuvieron impactos terrestres y marinos relativamente altos. Hubo una relación positiva significativa entre el impacto climático y el índice de manejo climático entre los países (R2 = 0.43, p = 0.02), lo que potencialmente significa que los países con un mayor impacto climático están más comprometidos con su manejo. Sin embargo, esta tendencia estuvo impulsada por las intenciones de manejo climático en Fiyi y en Bangladesh. Nuestros resultados pueden usarse para orientar los análisis a fina escala, las políticas nacionales y las decisiones locales de manejo en el futuro. Nuestros índices de manejo también revelan áreas en donde se pueden mejorar los componentes gestores. El manejo rentable de las presiones locales (p. ej.: la pesca, los nutrientes) dentro de las UBCs es esencial para construir un futuro preparado climáticamente que beneficie a los arrecifes y a las personas.

The grey - green spectrum: A review of coastal protection interventions.

In the face of uncertainties around coastal management and climate change, coastal engineering interventions need to be able to adapt to changing conditions. Nature-based solutions and other non-traditional, integrated interventions are gaining traction. However, system-based views are not yet embedded into coastal management strategies. Moreover, the differences in coastal interventions, ranging from hard ('grey') to nature-based ('green') infrastructure remain understudied. In coastal management it is therefore challenging to work with the grey-green spectrum of interventions with clarity and focus, and to produce results that can be evaluated. The objective of this paper was to examine whether there is a common understanding of: the characteristics and differences between grey and green infrastructure, where interventions sit on this spectrum, and the resilience of grey versus green infrastructure. We conducted an integrative literature review of the grey-green spectrum of coastal infrastructure. We examined 105 coastal protection case studies and expanded the double-insurance framework to ensure an integrative approach, looking at both external and internal factors of resilience. Our review showed that external factors are typically used to characterise the grey-green spectrum. However, although useful, they do not facilitate a holistic comparison of alternative interventions. The additional consideration of internal factors (response diversity, multifunctionality, modularity and adaptive, participatory governance) bridges this gap. The review showed that dikes, reefs, saltmarshes, sand nourishment and dunes span a wider segment of the grey-green spectrum than they are generally categorised in. Furthermore, resilient solutions for adaptation are unlikely to be exclusively engineered or natural, but tend to be a mix of the two at different spatial scales (micro, meso, macro and mega). Our review therefore suggests that coastal planners benefit from a more diverse range of options when they consider the incorporation of grey and green interventions in the context of each spatial scale. We propose that internal resilience should be accounted for when infrastructure options are comparatively evaluated. This consideration brings attention to the ways in which the grey-hybrid-green spectrum of infrastructure enhances value for people.

Assessing green management in health belief model: An analysis of a post-disaster rural context.

Previous studies have highlighted ecosystem-based management (EBM) related pro-environmental behaviors. EBM is based on the engagement of local communities in disaster-affected areas. However, few studies have explored the association between residents' health conditions and their perceptions of and capacities for EBM in post-disaster community development. Residents' health and psychological well-being is essential to maintaining their EBM-related motivations. Thus, this article investigated whether the awareness of personal health and Ecosystem-based disaster risk reduction (Eco-DRR) can be reflected in pro-environmental behaviors in the health belief model (HBM) in post-disaster contexts. As part of a case study in a disaster-affected rural community in Japan's Miyagi prefecture, a survey was conducted and the hypotheses were tested using a structural equation model (SEM). The Great East Japan Earthquakes and Tsunami in 2011 affected the study site, in the Maehama community, the Camellia Forest Project was initiated following this disaster as part of the ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA) and ecosystem-based disaster risk reduction (Eco-DRR) initiatives for post-disaster development. The empirical results confirmed the indirect influence of Eco-DRR factors and health perceptions on pro-environmental behaviors. In particular, the analysis showed that among HBM's perceived factors, perceived benefits of health promotion, Eco-DRR perceptions, social cohesion were positively associated with residents' ordinary green management. It also showed that green self-efficacy positively affected ordinary green management. Mowing/weeding experience was a significant representative cue to action and had a positive effect on residents' green management. Thus, this article shows that practicing a healthy lifestyle through green management, integrating Eco-DRR development benefits the sustainability and environmental health of resilient communities.

Development and analysis of a geospatial database for maritime spatial planning in Bangladesh.

In this research we collect, prepare and analyze a geospatial database of maritime activities located in the northern Bay of Bengal with the final aim to simulate maritime spatial planning (MSP) - ready information source for future sectoral and multi-sector MSP in Bangladesh. The database is composed of 28 anthropogenic and environmental layers categorized into seven Blue Economy sectors. The database is analyzed with a set of geospatial models aimed at understanding the intensity distribution of human activities at sea and the potential marine use conflicts emerging from the aggregation of human activities. Ecological resources were characterized in terms of marine mammals, lobsters, commercially important and threatened fish species, and pelagic birds and mapped as biodiversity hotspots using geographic cluster analysis. Results show that the most intensely used sea areas are located along the northeastern coast of Bangladesh, as well as in the Swatch of No Ground (SoNG) area, with maximum Marine Use Intensity (MUI) scores ranging from 5 to 8. Offshore waters of Saint Martin's Island have higher MUI scores (≥ 5) as well. The pairwise spatial conflict analysis shows that nature protection sites particularly SoNG Marine Protected Area (MPA), Nijhum Dwip Marine Reserve (MR), and Saint Martin's Island MPA are exposed to the high Marine Use Conflicts (MUC) induced by fishing and shipping activities. Fishing operations generate the highest MUC value (MUC = 30) in SoNG MPA, whereas shipping activities produce the highest MUC value (MUC = 24) in Nijhum Dwip MR. Both of the MPAs exhibit 6 to 12 MUC scores induced by shipping. The proposed database together with the illustrated analytical techniques used in this study and key findings can provide the first understanding of the priorities for Ecosystem Based Management of Bangladesh's marine space and provide valuable insights on the urgency for MSP process in the country. The study concludes with an outlook on the utility of the database for future analysis.

Transient dynamics during kelp forest recovery from fishing across multiple trophic levels.

Outcomes of management efforts to recover or restore populations of harvested species can be highly dependent on environmental and community context. Predator-prey interactions can alter recovery trajectories, and the timing of management actions within multi-trophic level harvest scenarios may influence the dynamics of recovery and lead to management trade-offs. Recent work using a generalist predator-prey model suggests that management promoting synchronized recovery of predators and prey leads to faster and less variable recovery trajectories than sequential recovery (predator or prey first). However, more complex communities may require different management actions to minimize recovery time and variability. Here, we use a tri-trophic level rocky reef community dynamics model with size-structure and fisheries at multiple trophic levels to investigate the importance of three ecological processes to recovery of fished communities: (1) size-structured predation, (2) non-consumptive effects of predators on prey behavior, and (3) varying levels of recruitment. We also test the effects of initiating recovery from community states associated with varying degrees of fishery-induced degradation and develop a simulation in which the basal resource (kelp) is harvested. In this system, a predator-first closure generally leads to the least volatile and quickest recovery, whether from a kelp forest, urchin barren, or intermediate community state. The benefits gained by selecting this strategy are magnified when recovering from the degraded community, the urchin barren, because initial conditions in the degraded state lead to lengthy recovery times. However, the shape of the size-structured predation relationship can strongly affect recovery volatility, where the differences between alternate management strategies are negated with size-independent predation. External recruitment reduces return times by bolstering the predatory lobster population. These results show that in a tightly linked tri-trophic level food web with top-down control, a predator-first fishery closure can be the most effective strategy to reduce volatility and shorten recovery, particularly when the system is starting from the degraded community state. Given the ubiquity of top predator loss across many ecosystems, we highlight the value of incorporating insights from community ecology into ecosystem management.

Cumulative stressors reduce the self-regulating capacity of coastal ecosystems.

Marine ecosystems are prone to tipping points, particularly in coastal zones where dramatic changes are associated with interactions between cumulative stressors (e.g., shellfish harvesting, eutrophication and sediment inputs) and ecosystem functions. A common feature of many degraded estuaries is elevated turbidity that reduces incident light to the seafloor, resulting from multiple factors including changes in sediment loading, sea-level rise and increased water column algal biomass. To determine whether cumulative effects of elevated turbidity may result in marked changes in the interactions between ecosystem components driving nutrient processing, we conducted a large-scale experiment manipulating sediment nitrogen concentrations in 15 estuaries across a national-scale gradient in incident light at the seafloor. We identified a threshold in incident light that was related to distinct changes in the ecosystem interaction networks (EIN) that drive nutrient processing. Above this threshold, network connectivity was high with clear mechanistic links to denitrification and the role of large shellfish in nitrogen processing. The EIN analyses revealed interacting stressors resulting in a decoupling of ecosystem processes in turbid estuaries with a lower capacity to denitrify and process nitrogen. This suggests that, as turbidity increases with sediment load, coastal areas can be more vulnerable to eutrophication. The identified interactions between light, nutrient processing and the abundance of large shellfish emphasizes the importance of actions that seek to manage multiple stressors and conserve or enhance shellfish abundance, rather than actions focusing on limiting a single stressor.