Data Scaling: Implications for Climate Action and Governance in the UK.

Local actors have growing prominence in climate governance but key capacities and powers remain with national policymakers. Coordination between national and local climate action is therefore of increasing importance. Underappreciated in existing academic and policy literature, coordination between actors at different scales can be affected not only by politics and institutional arrangements, but also by methods of data analysis. Exploring two datasets of GHG emissions by local area in England-one of consumption-based emissions and the other of territorial emissions-this paper shows the potential for a data scaling problem known as the modifiable areal unit problem and its possible consequences for the efficacy and equity implications of climate action. While this analysis is conceptual and does not identify specific instances of the modifiable areal unit problem or its consequences, it calls attention to methods of data analysis as possible contributors to climate governance challenges. Among other areas, future analysis is needed to explore how data scaling and other aspects of data processing and analysis may affect our understanding of non-state actors' contribution to climate action.

Is the fine-tuning evidence for a multiverse?

Our best current science seems to suggest the laws of physics and the initial conditions of our universe are fine-tuned for the possibility of life. A significant number of scientists and philosophers believe that the fine-tuning is evidence for the multiverse hypothesis. This paper will focus on a much-discussed objection to the inference from the fine-tuning to the multiverse: the charge that this line of reasoning commits the inverse gambler's fallacy. Despite the existence of a literature going back decades, this philosophical debate has made little contact with scientific discussion of fine-tuning and the multiverse, which mainly revolves around a specific form of the multiverse hypothesis rooted in eternal inflation combined with string theory. Because of this, potentially important implications from science to philosophy, and vice versa, have been left underexplored. In this paper, I will take a first step at joining up these two discussions, by arguing that attention to the eternal inflation + string theory conception of the multiverse supports the inverse gambler's fallacy charge. It does this by supporting the idea that our universe is contingently fine-tuned, thus addressing the concern that proponents of the inverse gambler's fallacy charge have assumed this without argument.

Lewontin did not commit Lewontin's fallacy, his critics do: Why racial taxonomy is not useful for the scientific study of human variation.

In 1972, R.C. Lewontin concluded that it follows from the fact that the large majority of human genetic variation (≈ 85%) is among individuals within local populations that racial taxonomy is unjustified. Three decades later, Edwards demonstrated that while the accuracy with which individuals may be assigned to groups is poor for a single locus, consideration of multi-locus data allows for highly accurate assignments. Edwards concluded that Lewontin's dismissal of racial taxonomy was unwarranted. Edwards misidentified the aim of Lewontin's critique, which was directed at the utility of racial classification and not at assigning individuals to groups using genetic data. Moreover, Edwards conflated distinct kinds of correlation when sketching out his argument. If we follow Edwards' argument to its natural terminus, it becomes clear that it is consideration of all of the correlation structure among local groups in human genetic data that renders racial taxonomy scientifically useless. Lewontin considers the correlation structure relevant to his analysis of racial taxonomy and does not make his eponymous misstep. Rather, critics of Lewontin who use racial taxonomies in their work are the primary offenders when it comes to committing Lewontin's fallacy.

Competency-based medical education and the McNamara fallacy: Assessing the important or making the assessed important?

The McNamara fallacy refers to the tendency to focus on numbers, metrics, and quantifiable data while disregarding the meaningful qualitative aspects. The existence of such a fallacy in medical education is reviewed in this paper. Competency-based medical education (CBME) has been introduced in India with the goal of having Indian Medical Graduates competent in five different roles - Clinician, Communicator, Leader and member of the health care team, Professional, and Lifelong learner. If we only focus on numbers and structure to assess the competencies pertaining to these roles, we would be falling prey to the McNamara fallacy. To assess these roles in the real sense, we need to embrace the qualitative assessment methods and appreciate their value in competency-based education. This can be done by using various workplace-based assessments, choosing tools based on educational impact rather than psychometric properties, using narratives and descriptive evaluation, giving grades instead of marks, and improving the quality of the questions asked in various exams. There are challenges in adopting qualitative assessment starting with being able to move past the objective-subjective debate, to developing expertise in conducting and documenting such assessment, and adding the rigor of qualitative research methods to enhance its credibility. The perspective on assessment thus needs a paradigm shift - we need to assess the important rather than just making the assessed important; and this would be crucial for the success of the CBME curriculum.

Rendezvous Under Temporal Uncertainty.

OBJECTIVE: Three experiments sought to understand performance limitations in controlling a ship attempting to meet another moving ship that approached from various trajectories. The influence of uncertainty, resulting from occasional unpredictable delays in one's own movement, was examined. BACKGROUND: Cognitive elements of rendezvous have been little studied. Related work such as the planning fallacy and bias toward underestimating time-to-contact imply a tendency toward late arrival at a rendezvous. METHODS: In a simplified simulation, participants controlled the speed and/or heading of their own ship once per scenario to try to rendezvous with another ship. Forty-five scenarios of approximately 30 s were conducted with different starting geometries and, in two of three experiments, with different frequencies and lengths of the unexpected delays. RESULTS: Perfect rendezvous were hard to obtain, with a general tendency to arrive late and pass behind the target vessel, although this was dependent on the angle of approach and relative speed. When occasional delays were introduced, less frequent but longer delays disrupted performance more than shorter but more frequent delays. Where delays were possible, but no delay occurred, there was no longer evidence of a general tendency to more frequently pass behind the target ship. Additionally, people did not wait to see if the unpredictable delays would occur before executing a course of action. Different control strategies were deployed and dual axis control was preferred. CONCLUSIONS: The tendency to arrive late and the influence of the possibility of uncertain delays are discussed in relationship to control strategies.

Dead rats, dopamine, performance metrics, and peacock tails: proxy failure is an inherent risk in goal-oriented systems.

When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure. For example, when standardized test scores in education become targets, teachers may start 'teaching to the test', leading to breakdown of the relationship between the measure--test performance--and the underlying goal--quality education. Similar phenomena have been named and described across a broad range of contexts, such as economics, academia, machine-learning, and ecology. Yet it remains unclear whether these phenomena bear only superficial similarities, or if they derive from some fundamental unifying mechanism. Here, we propose such a unifying mechanism, which we label proxy failure. We first review illustrative examples and their labels, such as the 'Cobra effect', 'Goodhart's law', and 'Campbell's law'. Second, we identify central prerequisites and constraints of proxy failure, noting that it is often only a partial failure or divergence. We argue that whenever incentivization or selection is based on an imperfect proxy measure of the underlying goal, a pressure arises which tends to make the proxy a worse approximation of the goal. Third, we develop this perspective for three concrete contexts, namely neuroscience, economics and ecology, highlighting similarities and differences. Fourth, we outline consequences of proxy failure, suggesting it is key to understanding the structure and evolution of goal-oriented systems. Our account draws on a broad range of disciplines, but we can only scratch the surface within each. We thus hope the present account elicits a collaborative enterprise, entailing both critical discussion as well as extensions in contexts we have missed.

Response to "Scrutinizing the causal link between excited delirium syndrome and restraint - a commentary on: 'The role of restraint in fatal excited delirium: a research synthesis and pooled analysis' by E.M.F. Strömmer, W. Leith, M.P. Zeegers and M.D. Freeman".

de Boer et al. criticize the conclusions in our 2020 paper on the validity of Excited Delirium Syndrome (ExDS) as "egregiously misleading." Our conclusion was that there "is no existing evidence that indicates that ExDS is inherently lethal in the absence of aggressive restraint." The basis for de Boer and colleague's criticism of our paper is that the ExDS literature does not provide an unbiased view of the lethality of the condition, and therefore the true epidemiologic features of ExDS cannot be determined from what has been published. The criticism is unrelated to the goals or methods of the study, however. Our stated purpose was to investigate "how the term ExDS has evolved in the literature and been endowed with a uniquely lethal quality," and whether there is "evidence for ExDS as a unique cause of a death that would have occurred regardless of restraint, or a label used when a restrained and agitated person dies, and which erroneously directs attention away from the role of restraint in explaining the death." We cannot fathom how de Boer et al. missed this clearly stated description of the study rationale, or why they would endorse a series of fallacious and meaningless claims that gave the appearance that they failed to grasp the basic design of the study. We do acknowledge and thank these authors for pointing out 3 minor citation errors and an equally minor table formatting error (neither of which altered the reported results and conclusions in the slightest), however.

Choice of Outcome in COVID-19 Studies and Implications for Policy: Mortality and Fatality.

In this brief communication, we discuss the confusion of mortality with fatality in the interpretation of evidence in the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, and how this confusion affects the translation of science into policy and practice. We discuss how this confusion has influenced COVID-19 policy in France, Sweden, and the United Kingdom and discuss the implications for decision-making about COVID-19 vaccine distribution. We also discuss how this confusion is an example of a more general statistical fallacy we term the "Missing Link Fallacy."

Find extra options or reason badly: An investigation of children's reasoning with incompatibility statements.

The false dilemma or dichotomy is a logical fallacy that occurs when interlocuters accept the premises in an incompatibility statement as being jointly exhaustive (i.e., leaving no third option), whereas that is in fact not the case. Brisson et al. [Memory & Cognition (2018), Vol. 46, pp. 657-670] investigated this fallacy in an adult sample and discovered a content effect that influenced participants' performance. The current study aimed to elaborate on these findings by establishing whether similar patterns could be observed with children. A number of age-appropriate incompatibility premises were constructed. For every item, four different inferential problems were presented (Affirm First, Affirm Second, Deny First, and Deny Second) with three potential answers to choose from (X, not X, or uncertainty regarding X). A sample of 192 volunteer children, with ages ranging from 8 to 13 years, was collected. Statistical analysis showed no significant effect for participants' age but did reveal main effects for premise validity and the amount of available "third options" (possibilities outside of the presented dichotomy). These results are a clear replication of the general effects on adults found by Brisson et al. Affirm inferences were also easy for children, Deny inferences were difficult (even more so than for adults), and content had a profound effect on participants' performance. Whenever more third options could be generated, children were less likely to fall into the false dilemma fallacy. Our findings thus further support the idea that reasoning with incompatibilities is influenced by the same semantic retrieval processes that have been previously related to human conditional reasoning.

Evolution and ethics viewed from within two metaphors: machine and organism.

How is moral thinking, ethics, related to evolutionary theorizing? There are two approaches, epitomized by Charles Darwin who works under the metaphor of the world as a machine, and by Herbert Spencer who works under the metaphor of the world as an organism. Although the author prefers the first approach, the aim of this paper is to give a disinterested account of both approaches.

The relationship between ambient air pollution and life expectancy - an ecological fallacy revisted.

INTRODUCTION: The results of multiple studies indicate the negative impact of exposure to air pollution on human life expectancy. Epidemiological evidence on this relation is in large proportion provided by ecological studies, what causes interpretation difficulties. Poland is a country characterized by large territorial differences in ambient air pollution and in life expectancy. This promotes analyses of the mentioned relationship based on ecological model. AIM: The aim of the study was to analyse the results of a simple ecological study concerning the relationship between life expectancy and air pollution with the focus on the difficulties in interpretation of the results. MATERIAL AND METHODS: The study used a simple ecological study approach. We used the official data on sex-specific life expectancy for year 2018 and annual average ambient air concentrations of PM2.5 in years 2010-2018 for 10 large metropolitan areas in Poland. The data was used as a marker of long-term air pollution levels in particular areas. Associations between life expectancy and air pollution levels were assessed using Spearman correlation analysis. RESULTS: The analysis concerning exposure to air pollution and life-expectancy in several Polish large agglomerations did not show statistically significant associations. CONCLUSIONS: Our ecological study did not show statistically significant associations between life expectancy and ambient air pollution levels measured by means of PM2.5 concentrations. Ecological nature of the population's exposure marker, without considering many important factors influencing length of life, may explain the negative results of the correlation analysis. This is an example of so called ecological fallacy, affecting the used model of epidemiological study.

Multivariable models in orthopaedic research: a methodological review of covariate selection and causal relationships.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to evaluate the methods used for including or excluding covariates in a multivariable model and to find out how common is the Table 2 Fallacy in studies recently published in high-quality orthopaedic journals. METHODS: A systematic review was conducted in the MEDLINE database. We included all studies that presented the results of a multivariable model in a table and published in seven orthopaedic journals with the highest ranked impact factors in 2019. RESULTS: Table 2 Fallacy was found in 67% (129/193) of the evaluated studies in which a multivariable model was used. Only 16% (31/193) of all studies had included the variables based on causal inference. Furthermore, only three of these studies used causal diagrams to illustrate the causal inference. Altogether, 35% (67/193) of the studies included variables based on statistical methods. CONCLUSIONS: Confounder selection and the interpretation of the results of the multivariable model showed notable challenges in orthopaedic studies recently published in the top orthopaedic journals. Based on the results of our review, it seems that more education in statistics and increased knowledge is required to decrease the occurrence of these statistical issues in orthopaedic research.

Partial mental simulation explains fallacies in physical reasoning.

People can reason intuitively, efficiently, and accurately about everyday physical events. Recent accounts suggest that people use mental simulation to make such intuitive physical judgments. But mental simulation models are computationally expensive; how is physical reasoning relatively accurate, while maintaining computational tractability? We suggest that people make use of partial simulation, mentally moving forward in time only parts of the world deemed relevant. We propose a novel partial simulation model, and test it on the physical conjunction fallacy, a recently observed phenomenon [Ludwin-Peery et al. (2020). Broken physics: A conjunction-fallacy effect in intuitive physical reasoning. Psychological Science, 31(12), 1602-1611. https://doi.org/10.1177/0956797620957610] that poses a challenge for full simulation models. We find an excellent fit between our model's predictions and human performance on a set of scenarios that build on and extend those used by Ludwin-Peery et al. [(2020). Broken physics: A conjunction-fallacy effect in intuitive physical reasoning. Psychological Science, 31(12), 1602-1611. https://doi.org/10.1177/0956797620957610], quantitatively and qualitatively accounting for deviations from optimal performance. Our results suggest more generally how we allocate cognitive resources to efficiently represent and simulate physical scenes.

Limits on simulation approaches in intuitive physics.

A popular explanation of the human ability for physical reasoning is that it depends on a sophisticated ability to perform mental simulations. According to this perspective, physical reasoning problems are approached by repeatedly simulating relevant aspects of a scenario, with noise, and making judgments based on aggregation over these simulations. In this paper, we describe three core tenets of simulation approaches, theoretical commitments that must be present in order for a simulation approach to be viable. The identification of these tenets threatens the plausibility of simulation as a theory of physical reasoning, because they appear to be incompatible with what we know about cognition more generally. To investigate this apparent contradiction, we describe three experiments involving simple physical judgments and predictions, and argue their results challenge these core predictions of theories of mental simulation.

Comparing the use of aggregate data and various methods of integrating individual patient data to network meta-analysis and its application to first-line ART.

BACKGROUND: The 2018 World Health Organization HIV guidelines were based on the results of a network meta-analysis (NMA) of published trials. This study employed individual patient-level data (IPD) and aggregate data (AgD) and meta-regression methods to assess the evidence supporting the WHO recommendations and whether they needed any refinements. METHODS: Access to IPD from three trials was granted through ClinicalStudyDataRequest.com (CSDR). Seven modelling approaches were applied and compared: 1) Unadjusted AgD network meta-analysis (NMA) - the original analysis; 2) AgD-NMA with meta-regression; 3) Two-stage IPD-AgD NMA; 4) Unadjusted one-stage IPD-AgD NMA; 5) One-stage IPD-AgD NMA with meta-regression (one-stage approach); 6) Two-stage IPD-AgD NMA with empirical-priors (empirical-priors approach); 7) Hierarchical meta-regression IPD-AgD NMA (HMR approach). The first two were the models used previously. Models were compared with respect to effect estimates, changes in the effect estimates, coefficient estimates, DIC and model fit, rankings and between-study heterogeneity. RESULTS: IPD were available for 2160 patients, representing 6.5% of the evidence base and 3 of 24 edges. The aspect of the model affected by the choice of modeling appeared to differ across outcomes. HMR consistently generated larger intervals, often with credible intervals (CrI) containing the null value. Discontinuations due to adverse events and viral suppression at 96 weeks were the only two outcomes for which the unadjusted AgD NMA would not be selected. For the first, the selected model shifted the principal comparison of interest from an odds ratio of 0.28 (95% CrI: 10.17, 0.44) to 0.37 (95% CrI: 0.23, 0.58). Throughout all outcomes, the regression estimates differed substantially between AgD and IPD methods, with the latter being more often larger in magnitude and statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, the use of IPD often impacted the coefficient estimates, but not sufficiently as to necessitate altering the final recommendations of the 2018 WHO Guidelines. Future work should examine the features of a network where adjustments will have an impact, such as how much IPD is required in a given size of network.

The science of spin: targeted strategies to manufacture doubt with detrimental effects on environmental and public health.

BACKGROUND: Numerous groups, such as the tobacco industry, have deliberately altered and misrepresented knowable facts and empirical evidence to promote an agenda, often for monetary benefit, with consequences for environmental and public health. Previous research has explored cases individually, but none have conducted an in-depth comparison between cases. The purpose of this study was to compile a comprehensive list of tactics used by disparate groups and provide a framework for identifying further instances of manufactured doubt. METHODS: We examined scholarly books, peer-reviewed articles, well-researched journalism pieces, and legal evidence related to five disparate industries and organizations selected for their destructive impacts on environmental and public health (tobacco, coal, and sugar industries, manufacturers of the pesticide Atrazine, and the Marshall Institute, an institute focused on climate change research, and other scientists from the era that associated with those in the Institute). These documents provided evidence for a list of tactics used to generate pro-industry spin and manufacture doubt about conferred harm. We then identified trends among sets of strategies that could explain their differential use or efficacy. RESULTS: We recognized 28 unique tactics used to manufacture doubt. Five of these tactics were used by all five organizations, suggesting that they are key features of manufactured doubt. The intended audience influences the strategy used to misinform, and logical fallacies contribute to their efficacy. CONCLUSIONS: This list of tactics can be used by others to build a case that an industry or group is deliberately manipulating information associated with their actions or products. Improved scientific and rhetorical literacy could be used to render them less effective, depending on the audience targeted, and ultimately allow for the protection of both environmental health and public health more generally.

Be careful with ecological associations.

Ecological studies are observational studies commonly used in public health research. The main characteristic of this study design is that the statistical analysis is based on pooled (i.e., aggregated) rather than on individual data. Thus, patient-level information such as age, gender, income and disease condition are not considered as individual characteristics but as mean values or frequencies, calculated at country or community level. Ecological studies can be used to compare the aggregated prevalence and incidence data of a given condition across different geographical areas, to assess time-related trends of the frequency of a pre-defined disease/condition, to identify factors explaining changes in health indicators over time in specific populations, to discriminate genetic from environmental causes of geographical variation in disease, or to investigate the relationship between a population-level exposure and a specific disease or condition. The major pitfall in ecological studies is the ecological fallacy, a bias which occurs when conclusions about individuals are erroneously deduced from results about the group to which those individuals belong. In this paper, by using a series of examples, we provide a general explanation of the ecological studies and provide some useful elements to recognize or suspect ecological fallacy in this type of studies.

Visual Self-Misperception in Eating Disorders.

Many who suffer from eating disorders claim that they see themselves as "fat". Despite decades of research into the phenomenon, behavioural evidence has failed to confirm that eating disorders involve visual misperception of own-body size. I illustrate the importance of this phenomenon for our understanding of perceptual processing, outline the challenges involved in experimentally confirming it, and provide solutions to those challenges.

Lack of group-to-individual generalizability is a threat to human subjects research.

Only for ergodic processes will inferences based on group-level data generalize to individual experience or behavior. Because human social and psychological processes typically have an individually variable and time-varying nature, they are unlikely to be ergodic. In this paper, six studies with a repeated-measure design were used for symmetric comparisons of interindividual and intraindividual variation. Our results delineate the potential scope and impact of nonergodic data in human subjects research. Analyses across six samples (with 87-94 participants and an equal number of assessments per participant) showed some degree of agreement in central tendency estimates (mean) between groups and individuals across constructs and data collection paradigms. However, the variance around the expected value was two to four times larger within individuals than within groups. This suggests that literatures in social and medical sciences may overestimate the accuracy of aggregated statistical estimates. This observation could have serious consequences for how we understand the consistency between group and individual correlations, and the generalizability of conclusions between domains. Researchers should explicitly test for equivalence of processes at the individual and group level across the social and medical sciences.

Extrinsic Convergent Validity Evidence to Prevent Jingle and Jangle Fallacies.

In psychology, there have been vast creative efforts in proposing new constructs and developing measures to assess them. Less effort has been spent in investigating construct overlap to prevent bifurcated literatures, wasted research efforts, and jingle-jangle fallacies. For example, researchers could gather validity evidence to evaluate if two measures with the same label actually assess different constructs (jingle fallacy), or if two measures with different labels actually assess the same construct (jangle fallacy). In this paper, we discuss the concept of extrinsic convergent validity, a source of validity evidence demonstrated when two measures of the same construct, or two measures of seemingly different constructs, have comparable correlations with external criteria. We introduce a formal approach to obtain extrinsic convergent validity evidence using tests of dependent correlations and evaluate the tests using Monte Carlo simulations. Also, we illustrate the methods by examining the overlap between the self-control and grit constructs, and the overlap among seven seemingly different measures of the connectedness to nature construct. Finally, we discuss how extrinsic convergent validity evidence supplements other sources of evidence that support validity arguments of construct overlap.