Biodiversity and productivity in eastern US forests.

Despite experimental and observational studies demonstrating that biodiversity enhances primary productivity, the best metric for predicting productivity at broad geographic extents-functional trait diversity, phylogenetic diversity, or species richness-remains unknown. Using >1.8 million tree measurements from across eastern US forests, we quantified relationships among functional trait diversity, phylogenetic diversity, species richness, and productivity. Surprisingly, functional trait and phylogenetic diversity explained little variation in productivity that could not be explained by tree species richness. This result was consistent across the entire eastern United States, within ecoprovinces, and within data subsets that controlled for biomass or stand age. Metrics of functional trait and phylogenetic diversity that were independent of species richness were negatively correlated with productivity. This last result suggests that processes that determine species sorting and packing are likely important for the relationships between productivity and biodiversity. This result also demonstrates the potential confusion that can arise when interdependencies among different diversity metrics are ignored. Our findings show the value of species richness as a predictive tool and highlight gaps in knowledge about linkages between functional diversity and ecosystem functioning.

A genome-guided strategy for climate resilience in American chestnut restoration populations.

American chestnut (Castanea dentata) is a deciduous tree species of eastern North America that was decimated by the introduction of the chestnut blight fungus (Cryphonectria parasitica) in the early 20th century. Although millions of American chestnuts survive as root collar sprouts, these trees rarely reproduce. Thus, the species is considered functionally extinct. American chestnuts with improved blight resistance have been developed through interspecific hybridization followed by conspecific backcrossing, and by genetic engineering. Incorporating adaptive genomic diversity into these backcross families and transgenic lines is important for restoring the species across broad climatic gradients. To develop sampling recommendations for ex situ conservation of wild adaptive genetic variation, we coupled whole-genome resequencing of 384 stump sprouts with genotype-environment association analyses and found that the species range can be subdivided into three seed zones characterized by relatively homogeneous adaptive allele frequencies. We estimated that 21 to 29 trees per seed zone will need to be conserved to capture most extant adaptive diversity. We also resequenced the genomes of 269 backcross trees to understand the extent to which the breeding program has already captured wild adaptive diversity, and to estimate optimal reintroduction sites for specific families on the basis of their adaptive portfolio and future climate projections. Taken together, these results inform the development of an ex situ germplasm conservation and breeding plan to target blight-resistant breeding populations to specific environments and provides a blueprint for developing restoration plans for other imperiled tree species.

Climate change, tree demography, and thermophilization in western US forests.

Climate change is driving widespread changes in ecological communities. Warming temperatures often shift community composition toward more heat-tolerant taxa. The factors influencing the rate of this "thermophilization" process remain unclear. Using 10-y census data from an extensive forest plot network, we show that mature tree communities of the western United States have undergone thermophilization. The mean magnitude of climate warming over the 10-y study interval was 0.32 °C, whereas the mean magnitude of thermophilization was 0.039 °C. Differential tree mortality was the strongest demographic driver of thermophilization, rather than growth or recruitment. Thermophilization rates are associated with recent changes in temperature and hydrologic variables, as well as topography and disturbance, with insect damage showing the strongest standardized effect on thermophilization rates. On average, thermophilization occurred more rapidly on cool, north-facing hillslopes. Our results demonstrate that warming temperatures are outpacing the composition of western US forest tree communities, and that climate change may erode biodiversity patterns structured by topographic variation.

Oceanographic connectivity explains the intra-specific diversity of mangrove forests at global scales.

The distribution of mangrove intra-specific biodiversity can be structured by historical demographic processes that enhance or limit effective population sizes. Oceanographic connectivity (OC) may further structure intra-specific biodiversity by preserving or diluting the genetic signatures of historical changes. Despite its relevance for biogeography and evolution, the role of oceanographic connectivity in structuring the distribution of mangrove's genetic diversity has not been addressed at global scale. Here we ask whether connectivity mediated by ocean currents explains the intra-specific diversity of mangroves. A comprehensive dataset of population genetic differentiation was compiled from the literature. Multigenerational connectivity and population centrality indices were estimated with biophysical modeling coupled with network analyses. The variability explained in genetic differentiation was tested with competitive regression models built upon classical isolation-by-distance (IBD) models considering geographic distance. We show that oceanographic connectivity can explain the genetic differentiation of mangrove populations regardless of the species, region, and genetic marker (significant regression models in 95% of cases, with an average R-square of 0.44 ± 0.23 and Person's correlation of 0.65 ± 0.17), systematically improving IBD models. Centrality indices, providing information on important stepping-stone sites between biogeographic regions, were also important in explaining differentiation (R-square improvement of 0.06 ± 0.07, up to 0.42). We further show that ocean currents produce skewed dispersal kernels for mangroves, highlighting the role of rare long-distance dispersal events responsible for historical settlements. Overall, we demonstrate the role of oceanographic connectivity in structuring mangrove intra-specific diversity. Our findings are critical for mangroves' biogeography and evolution, but also for management strategies considering climate change and genetic biodiversity conservation.

The number of tree species on Earth.

One of the most fundamental questions in ecology is how many species inhabit the Earth. However, due to massive logistical and financial challenges and taxonomic difficulties connected to the species concept definition, the global numbers of species, including those of important and well-studied life forms such as trees, still remain largely unknown. Here, based on global ground-sourced data, we estimate the total tree species richness at global, continental, and biome levels. Our results indicate that there are ∼73,000 tree species globally, among which ∼9,000 tree species are yet to be discovered. Roughly 40% of undiscovered tree species are in South America. Moreover, almost one-third of all tree species to be discovered may be rare, with very low populations and limited spatial distribution (likely in remote tropical lowlands and mountains). These findings highlight the vulnerability of global forest biodiversity to anthropogenic changes in land use and climate, which disproportionately threaten rare species and thus, global tree richness.

Difficult climate-adaptive decisions in forests as complex social-ecological systems.

Climate change threatens the social, ecological, and economic benefits enjoyed by forest-dependent communities worldwide. Climate-adaptive forest management strategies such as genomics-based assisted migration (AM) may help protect many of these threatened benefits. However, such novel technological interventions in complex social-ecological systems will generate new risks, benefits, and uncertainties that interact with diverse forest values and preexisting risks. Using data from 16 focus groups in British Columbia, Canada, we show that different stakeholders (forestry professionals, environmental nongovernmental organizations, local government officials, and members of local business communities) emphasize different kinds of risks and uncertainties in judging the appropriateness of AM. We show the difficulty of climate-adaptive decisions in complex social-ecological systems in which both climate change and adaptation will have widespread and cascading impacts on diverse nonclimate values. Overarching judgments about AM as an adaptation strategy, which may appear simple when elicited in surveys or questionnaires, require that participants make complex trade-offs among multiple domains of uncertain and unknown risks. Overall, the highest-priority forest management objective for most stakeholders is the health and integrity of the forest ecosystem from which all other important forest values derive. The factor perceived as riskiest is our lack of knowledge of how forest ecosystems work, which hinders stakeholders in their assessment of AM's acceptability. These results are further evidence of the inherent risk in privileging natural science above other forms of knowledge at the science-policy interface. When decisions are framed as technical, the normative and ethical considerations that define our fundamental goals are made invisible.

A pantropical assessment of deforestation caused by industrial mining.

Growing demand for minerals continues to drive deforestation worldwide. Tropical forests are particularly vulnerable to the environmental impacts of mining and mineral processing. Many local- to regional-scale studies document extensive, long-lasting impacts of mining on biodiversity and ecosystem services. However, the full scope of deforestation induced by industrial mining across the tropics is yet unknown. Here, we present a biome-wide assessment to show where industrial mine expansion has caused the most deforestation from 2000 to 2019. We find that 3,264 km2 of forest was directly lost due to industrial mining, with 80% occurring in only four countries: Indonesia, Brazil, Ghana, and Suriname. Additionally, controlling for other nonmining determinants of deforestation, we find that mining caused indirect forest loss in two-thirds of the investigated countries. Our results illustrate significant yet unevenly distributed and often unmanaged impacts on these biodiverse ecosystems. Impact assessments and mitigation plans of industrial mining activities must address direct and indirect impacts to support conservation of the world's tropical forests.

Kelp-forest dynamics controlled by substrate complexity.

The factors that determine why ecosystems exhibit abrupt shifts in state are of paramount importance for management, conservation, and restoration efforts. Kelp forests are emblematic of such abruptly shifting ecosystems, transitioning from kelp-dominated to urchin-dominated states around the world with increasing frequency, yet the underlying processes and mechanisms that control their dynamics remain unclear. Here, we analyze four decades of data from biannual monitoring around San Nicolas Island, CA, to show that substrate complexity controls both the number of possible (alternative) states and the velocity with which shifts between states occur. The superposition of community dynamics with reconstructions of system stability landscapes reveals that shifts between alternative states at low-complexity sites reflect abrupt, high-velocity events initiated by pulse perturbations that rapidly propel species across dynamically unstable state-space. In contrast, high-complexity sites exhibit a single state of resilient kelp-urchin coexistence. Our analyses suggest that substrate complexity influences both top-down and bottom-up regulatory processes in kelp forests, highlight its influence on kelp-forest stability at both large (island-wide) and small (<10 m) spatial scales, and could be valuable for holistic kelp-forest management.

Random forests for the analysis of matched case-control studies.

BACKGROUND: Conditional logistic regression trees have been proposed as a flexible alternative to the standard method of conditional logistic regression for the analysis of matched case-control studies. While they allow to avoid the strict assumption of linearity and automatically incorporate interactions, conditional logistic regression trees may suffer from a relatively high variability. Further machine learning methods for the analysis of matched case-control studies are missing because conventional machine learning methods cannot handle the matched structure of the data. RESULTS: A random forest method for the analysis of matched case-control studies based on conditional logistic regression trees is proposed, which overcomes the issue of high variability. It provides an accurate estimation of exposure effects while being more flexible in the functional form of covariate effects. The efficacy of the method is illustrated in a simulation study and within an application to real-world data from a matched case-control study on the effect of regular participation in cervical cancer screening on the development of cervical cancer. CONCLUSIONS: The proposed random forest method is a promising add-on to the toolbox for the analysis of matched case-control studies and addresses the need for machine-learning methods in this field. It provides a more flexible approach compared to the standard method of conditional logistic regression, but also compared to conditional logistic regression trees. It allows for non-linearity and the automatic inclusion of interaction effects and is suitable both for exploratory and explanatory analyses.

Global contribution of invertebrates to forest litter decomposition.

Forest litter decomposition is an essential component of global carbon and nutrient turnover. Invertebrates play important roles in litter decomposition, but the regional pattern of their effects is poorly understood. We examined 476 case studies across 93 sites and performed a meta-analysis to estimate regional effects of invertebrates on forest litter decomposition. We then assessed how invertebrate diversity, climate and soil pH drive regional variations in invertebrate-mediated decomposition. We found that (1) invertebrate contributions to litter decomposition are 1.4 times higher in tropical and subtropical forests than in forests elsewhere, with an overall contribution of 31% to global forest litter decomposition; and (2) termite diversity, together with warm, humid and acidic environments in the tropics and subtropics are positively associated with forest litter decomposition by invertebrates. Our results demonstrate the significant difference in invertebrate effects on mediating forest litter decomposition among regions. We demonstrate, also, the significance of termites in driving litter mass loss in the tropics and subtropics. These results are particularly pertinent in the tropics and subtropics where climate change and human disturbance threaten invertebrate biodiversity and the ecosystem services it provides.

Interspecific competition shapes bird species' distributions along tropical precipitation gradients.

The hypothesis that species' ranges are limited by interspecific competition has motivated decades of debate, but a general answer remains elusive. Here we test this hypothesis for lowland tropical birds by examining species' precipitation niche breadths. We focus on precipitation because it-not temperature-is the dominant climate variable that shapes the biota of the lowland tropics. We used 3.6 million fine-scale citizen science records from eBird to measure species' precipitation niche breadths in 19 different regions across the globe. Consistent with the predictions of the interspecific competition hypothesis, multiple lines of evidence show that species have narrower precipitation niches in regions with more species. This means species inhabit more specialized precipitation niches in species-rich regions. We predict this niche specialization should make tropical species in high diversity regions disproportionately vulnerable to changes in precipitation regimes; preliminary empirical evidence is consistent with this prediction.

Harnessing causal forests for epidemiologic research: key considerations.

Assessing heterogeneous treatment effects (HTEs) is an essential task in epidemiology. The recent integration of machine learning into causal inference has provided a new, flexible tool for evaluating complex HTEs: causal forest. In a recent paper, Jawadekar et al (Am J Epidemiol. 2023;192(7):1155-1165) introduced this innovative approach and offered practical guidelines for applied users. Building on their work, this commentary provides additional insights and guidance to promote the understanding and application of causal forest in epidemiologic research. We start with conceptual clarifications, differentiating between honesty and cross-fitting, and exploring the interpretation of estimated conditional average treatment effects. We then delve into practical considerations not addressed by Jawadekar et al, including motivations for estimating HTEs, calibration approaches, and ways to leverage causal forest output with examples from simulated data. We conclude by outlining challenges to consider for future advancements and applications of causal forest in epidemiologic research.

A Spatial Signal of Niche Differentiation in Tropical Forests.

AbstractExplaining diversity in tropical forests remains a challenge in community ecology. Theory tells us that species differences can stabilize communities by reducing competition, while species similarities can promote diversity by reducing fitness differences and thus prolonging the time to competitive exclusion. Combined, these processes may lead to clustering of species such that species are niche differentiated across clusters and share a niche within each cluster. Here, we characterize this partial niche differentiation in a tropical forest in Panama by measuring spatial clustering of woody plants and relating these clusters to local soil conditions. We find that species were spatially clustered and the clusters were associated with specific concentrations of soil nutrients, reflecting the existence of nutrient niches. Species were almost twice as likely to recruit in their own nutrient niche. A decision tree algorithm showed that local soil conditions correctly predicted the niche of the trees with up to 85% accuracy. Iron, zinc, phosphorus, manganese, and soil pH were among the best predictors of species clusters.

Soil pH enhancement and alterations in nutrient and Bacterial Community profiles following Pleioblastus amarus expansion in tea plantations.

BACKGROUND: The expansion of bamboo forests increases environmental heterogeneity in tea plantation ecosystems, affecting soil properties and microbial communities. Understanding these impacts is essential for developing sustainable bamboo management and maintaining ecological balance in tea plantations. METHODS: We studied the effect of the continuous expansion of Pleioblastus amarus into tea plantations, by establishing five plot types: pure P. amarus forest area (BF), P. amarus forest interface area (BA), mixed forest interface area (MA), mixed forest center area (TB), and pure tea plantation area (TF). We conducted a comprehensive analysis of soil chemical properties and utilized Illumina sequencing to profile microbial community composition and diversity, emphasizing their responses to bamboo expansion. RESULTS: (1) Bamboo expansion significantly raised soil pH and enhanced levels of organic matter, nitrogen, and phosphorus, particularly noticeable in BA and MA sites. In the TB sites, improvements in soil nutrients were statistically indistinguishable from those in pure tea plantation areas. (2) Continuous bamboo expansion led to significant changes in soil bacterial diversity, especially noticeable between BA and TF sites, while fungal diversity was unaffected. (3) Bamboo expansion substantially altered the composition of less abundant bacterial and fungal communities, which proved more sensitive to changes in soil chemical properties. CONCLUSION: The expansion of bamboo forests causes significant alterations in soil pH and nutrient characteristics, impacting the diversity and composition of soil bacteria in tea plantations. However, as expansion progresses, its long-term beneficial impact on soil quality in tea plantations appears limited.

A Rolling-Bead Triboelectric Nanogenerator for Harvesting Omnidirectional Wind-Induced Energy toward Shelter Forests Monitoring.

Shelter forests (or shelter-belts), while crucial for climate regulation, lack monitoring systems, e.g., Internet of Things (IoT) devices, but their abundant wind energy can potentially power these devices using the trees as mounting points. To harness wind energy, an omnidirectional fluid-induced vibration triboelectric nanogenerator (OFIV-TENG) has been developed. The device is installed on shelter forest trees to harvest wind energy from all directions, employing a fluid-induced vibration (FIV) mechanism (fluid-responding structure) that can capture and use wind energy, ranging from low wind speeds (vortex vibration) to high wind speeds (galloping). The rolling-bead triboelectric nanogenerator (TENG) can efficiently harvest energy while minimizing wear and tear. Additionally, the usage of double electrodes results in an effective surface charge density of 21.4 µC m-2 , which is the highest among all reported rolling-bead TENGs. The collected energy is utilized for temperature and humidity monitoring, providing feedback on the effect of climate regulation in shelter forests, alarming forest fires, and wireless wind speed warning. In general, this work provides a promising and rational strategy, using natural resources like trees as the supporting structures, and shows broad application prospects in efficient energy collection, wind speed warning, and environmentally friendliness.

Ecological drivers of flower-leaf sequences: aridity and proxies for pollinator attraction select for flowering-first in the American plums.

Across temperate forests, many tree species produce flowers before their leaves emerge. This flower-leaf phenological sequence, known as hysteranthy, is generally described as an adaptation for wind pollination. However, this explanation does not address why hysteranthy is also common in biotically pollinated taxa. We quantified flower-leaf sequence variation in the American plums (Prunus, subg. Prunus sect. Prunocerasus), a clade of insect-pollinated trees, using herbaria specimens and Bayesian hierarchical modeling. We tested two common, but rarely interrogated hypotheses - that hysteranthy confers aridity tolerance and/or pollinator visibility - by modeling the associations between hysteranthy and related traits. To understand how these phenology-trait associations were sensitive to taxonomic scale and flower-leaf sequence classification, we then extended these analyses to all Prunus species in North America. Our findings across two taxonomic levels support the hypotheses that hysteranthy may help temporally partition hydraulic demand to reduce water stress and increase pollinator visibility - thereby reducing selective pressure on inflorescence size. Our results provide foundational insights into the evolution of flower-leaf sequences in the genus Prunus, with implications for understanding these patterns in biotically pollinated plants in general. Our approach suggests a path to advance these hypotheses to other clades, but teasing out drivers fully will require new experiments.

Aerobic methane production in Scots pine shoots is independent of drought or photosynthesis.

Shoot-level emissions of aerobically produced methane (CH4) may be an overlooked source of tree-derived CH4, but insufficient understanding of the interactions between their environmental and physiological drivers still prevents the reliable upscaling of canopy CH4 fluxes. We utilised a novel automated chamber system to continuously measure CH4 fluxes from the shoots of Pinus sylvestris (Scots pine) saplings under drought to investigate how canopy CH4 fluxes respond to the drought-induced alterations in their physiological processes and to isolate the shoot-level production of CH4 from soil-derived transport and photosynthesis. We found that aerobic CH4 emissions are not affected by the drought-induced stress, changes in physiological processes, or decrease in photosynthesis. Instead, these emissions vary on short temporal scales with environmental drivers such as temperature, suggesting that they result from abiotic degradation of plant compounds. Our study shows that aerobic CH4 emissions from foliage are distinct from photosynthesis-related processes. Thus, instead of photosynthesis rates, it is more reliable to construct regional and global estimates for the aerobic CH4 emission based on regional differences in foliage biomass and climate, also accounting for short-term variations of weather variables such as air temperature and solar radiation.

Future climate doubles the risk of hydraulic failure in a wet tropical forest.

Future climate presents conflicting implications for forest biomass. We evaluate how plant hydraulic traits, elevated CO2 levels, warming, and changes in precipitation affect forest primary productivity, evapotranspiration, and the risk of hydraulic failure. We used a dynamic vegetation model with plant hydrodynamics (FATES-HYDRO) to simulate the stand-level responses to future climate changes in a wet tropical forest in Barro Colorado Island, Panama. We calibrated the model by selecting plant trait assemblages that performed well against observations. These assemblages were run with temperature and precipitation changes for two greenhouse gas emission scenarios (2086-2100: SSP2-45, SSP5-85) and two CO2 levels (contemporary, anticipated). The risk of hydraulic failure is projected to increase from a contemporary rate of 5.7% to 10.1-11.3% under future climate scenarios, and, crucially, elevated CO2 provided only slight amelioration. By contrast, elevated CO2 mitigated GPP reductions. We attribute a greater variation in hydraulic failure risk to trait assemblages than to either CO2 or climate. Our results project forests with both faster growth (through productivity increases) and higher mortality rates (through increasing rates of hydraulic failure) in the neo-tropics accompanied by certain trait plant assemblages becoming nonviable.

Flower production decreases with warmer and more humid atmospheric conditions in a western Amazonian forest.

Climate models predict that everwet western Amazonian forests will face warmer and wetter atmospheric conditions, and increased cloud cover. It remains unclear how these changes will impact plant reproductive performance, such as flowering, which plays a central role in sustaining food webs and forest regeneration. Warmer and wetter nights may cause reduced flower production, via increased dark respiration rates or alteration in the reliability of flowering cue-based processes. Additionally, more persistent cloud cover should reduce the amounts of solar irradiance, which could limit flower production. We tested whether interannual variation in flower production has changed in response to fluctuations in irradiance, rainfall, temperature, and relative humidity over 18 yrs in an everwet forest in Ecuador. Analyses of 184 plant species showed that flower production declined as nighttime temperature and relative humidity increased, suggesting that warmer nights and greater atmospheric water saturation negatively impacted reproduction. Species varied in their flowering responses to climatic variables but this variation was not explained by life form or phylogeny. Our results shed light on how plant communities will respond to climatic changes in this everwet region, in which the impacts of these changes have been poorly studied compared with more seasonal Neotropical areas.

Toward a coordinated understanding of hydro-biogeochemical root functions in tropical forests for application in vegetation models.

Tropical forest root characteristics and resource acquisition strategies are underrepresented in vegetation and global models, hampering the prediction of forest-climate feedbacks for these carbon-rich ecosystems. Lowland tropical forests often have globally unique combinations of high taxonomic and functional biodiversity, rainfall seasonality, and strongly weathered infertile soils, giving rise to distinct patterns in root traits and functions compared with higher latitude ecosystems. We provide a roadmap for integrating recent advances in our understanding of tropical forest belowground function into vegetation models, focusing on water and nutrient acquisition. We offer comparisons of recent advances in empirical and model understanding of root characteristics that represent important functional processes in tropical forests. We focus on: (1) fine-root strategies for soil resource exploration, (2) coupling and trade-offs in fine-root water vs nutrient acquisition, and (3) aboveground-belowground linkages in plant resource acquisition and use. We suggest avenues for representing these extremely diverse plant communities in computationally manageable and ecologically meaningful groups in models for linked aboveground-belowground hydro-nutrient functions. Tropical forests are undergoing warming, shifting rainfall regimes, and exacerbation of soil nutrient scarcity caused by elevated atmospheric CO2. The accurate model representation of tropical forest functions is crucial for understanding the interactions of this biome with the climate.

Las características de las raíces de los bosques tropicales y las estrategias de adquisición de recursos están subrepresentadas en modelos de vegetación, lo que dificulta la predicción del efecto de cambio de clima para estos ecosistemas ricos en carbono. Los bosques tropicales a menudo tienen combinaciones únicas a nivel mundial de alta biodiversidad taxonómica y funcional, estacionalidad de precipitación, y suelos infértiles, dando lugar a patrones distintos en los rasgos y funciones de las raíces en comparación con los ecosistemas de latitudes más altas. Integramos los avances recientes en nuestra comprensión de la función subterránea de los bosques tropicales en modelos de vegetación, centrándonos en la adquisición de agua y nutrientes. Ofrecemos comparaciones de avances recientes en la comprensión empírica y de modelos de las características de las raíces que representan procesos funcionales importantes en los bosques tropicales. Nos centramos en: (1) estrategias de raíces finas para adquisición de recursos del suelo, (2) acoplamiento y compensaciones entre adquisición del agua y de nutrientes, y (3) vínculos entre funciones sobre tierra y debajo del superficie en bosques tropicales. Sugerimos vías para representar estas comunidades de plantas extremadamente diversas en grupos computacionalmente manejables y ecológicamente significativos en modelos. Los bosques tropicales se están calentando, tienen cambios en los regímenes de lluvias, y tienen una exacerbación de la escasez de nutrientes del suelo causada por el elevado CO2 atmosférico. La representación precisa de las funciones de los bosques tropicales en modelos es crucial para comprender las interacciones de este bioma con el clima.