Real-time pandemic surveillance using hospital admissions and mobility data.

Forecasting the burden of COVID-19 has been impeded by limitations in data, with case reporting biased by testing practices, death counts lagging far behind infections, and hospital census reflecting time-varying patient access, admission criteria, and demographics. Here, we show that hospital admissions coupled with mobility data can reliably predict severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission rates and healthcare demand. Using a forecasting model that has guided mitigation policies in Austin, TX, we estimate that the local reproduction number had an initial 7-d average of 5.8 (95% credible interval [CrI]: 3.6 to 7.9) and reached a low of 0.65 (95% CrI: 0.52 to 0.77) after the summer 2020 surge. Estimated case detection rates ranged from 17.2% (95% CrI: 11.8 to 22.1%) at the outset to a high of 70% (95% CrI: 64 to 80%) in January 2021, and infection prevalence remained above 0.1% between April 2020 and March 1, 2021, peaking at 0.8% (0.7-0.9%) in early January 2021. As precautionary behaviors increased safety in public spaces, the relationship between mobility and transmission weakened. We estimate that mobility-associated transmission was 62% (95% CrI: 52 to 68%) lower in February 2021 compared to March 2020. In a retrospective comparison, the 95% CrIs of our 1, 2, and 3 wk ahead forecasts contained 93.6%, 89.9%, and 87.7% of reported data, respectively. Developed by a task force including scientists, public health officials, policy makers, and hospital executives, this model can reliably project COVID-19 healthcare needs in US cities.

Psychosocial Factors Predicting Healthcare Usage in Young Adults with Youth-Onset Type 2 Diabetes: The TODAY2 iCount Observational Study.

BACKGROUND: Established diabetes care ("diabetes home") and regular healthcare visits are important to achieve optimal health. Nothing is known about psychosocial factors that predict healthcare usage (HCU) in young adults with youth-onset type 2 diabetes, at risk for early complications. OBJECTIVE: To identify psychosocial predictors of HCU in the Treatment Options for type 2 Diabetes in Adolescents and Youth (TODAY2) cohort. DESIGN: Longitudinal, measured at T1 (baseline) and T2 (1 year later). Logistic and linear regressions, adjusted for potential confounders, identified predictors of sub-optimal HCU (defined as no diabetes home, 0 visits for routine care, or ≥ 1 urgent care visit in prior 6 months). PARTICIPANTS: N = 366 TODAY2 participants with T1 and T2 data (381 consented). Mean age = 26.0 years, 67.8% female, 37.7% non-Hispanic Black, 35.8% Hispanic, 20.2% non-Hispanic white, 6.3% "other," mean HbA1c = 9.4%. MAIN MEASURES: HCU survey; reliable and valid measures of diabetes self-efficacy, depressive symptoms, anxiety symptoms, diabetes distress, beliefs about medicines, diabetes attitudes, material need insecurities, self-management support. KEY RESULTS: 25.4% had no diabetes home, 23.7% had 0 routine care visits, 46% had ≥ 1 urgent care visit (prior 6 months). Beliefs in the necessity of (adjusted odds ratio [OR] = 1.28; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.12, 1.46, p < 0.001), and concerns about (OR = 1.29;CI = 1.08,1.54, p = 0.004), diabetes medicines, and its negative psychosocial impacts (OR = 1.57;CI = 1.04, 2.38, p = 0.03), predicted higher odds of having a diabetes home at T2. Beliefs that medicines are harmful predicted lower odds of a diabetes home (OR = 0.56;CI = 0.37,0.85, p = 0.006). Necessity beliefs (OR = 1.2;CI = 1.06,1.36, p = 0.004), and self-management support (OR = 1.5;CI = 1.08,2.07, p = 0.01) predicted higher odds of having ≥ 1 diabetes care visit, harm beliefs predicted lower odds (OR = 0.6;CI = 0.41,0.88, p = 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: Sub-optimal healthcare usage, common in young adults with youth-onset type 2 diabetes, is predicted by beliefs about medicines, diabetes impact, and self-management support. We must address these factors to help this vulnerable group establish stable diabetes care.

An adaptive testing strategy for efficient utilization of healthcare resources during an epidemic.

Lockdowns are found to be effective against rapidly spreading epidemics like COVID-19. Two downsides to strategies rooted in social distancing and lockdowns are that they adversely affect the economy and prolong the duration of the epidemic. The extended duration observed in these strategies is often due to the under-utilization of medical facilities. Even though an under-utilized health care system is preferred over an overwhelmed one, an alternate strategy could be to maintain medical facilities close to their capacity, with a factor of safety. We explore the practicality of this alternate mitigation strategy and show that it can be achieved by varying the testing rate. We present an algorithm to calculate the number of tests per day to maintain medical facilities close to their capacity. We illustrate the efficacy of our strategy by showing that it reduced the epidemic duration by 40% in comparison to lockdown-based strategies.

Healthcare usage and cost for plantar fasciitis: a retrospective observational analysis of the 2010-2018 health insurance review and assessment service national patient sample data.

BACKGROUND: Plantar fasciitis (PF) is the most common cause of heel pain in adults, and the number of patients and medical expenses are increasing annually. However, studies on this condition are lacking. There is a need to investigate universally administered PF treatment and the associated costs. Therefore we analyzed the South Korean Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service data to investigate the distribution and healthcare usage of patients with PF. METHODS: A cross-sectional retrospective observational design was used in this study. Patients diagnosed with PF (ICD-10 code M72.2) between January 2010 and December 2018 in South Korea, of whom 60,079 had used healthcare at least once, were included in the study. We assessed healthcare usage and cost due to PF, treatment method, and visit route. All statistical analyses were performed with descriptive statistics using SAS 9.4 version. RESULTS: The number of treated cases of PF and patients with PF was 11,627 cases and 3,571 patients in 2010, respectively, which increased annually to 38,515 cases and 10,125 patients by 2018, respectively. The 45-54-year-old age group had the highest number of patients; the patient population was predominantly women. Physical therapy was used frequently in Western medicine (WM) institutions, where > 50% of the medicines prescribed to outpatients were analgesics. In contrast, acupuncture therapy was most commonly used in Korean medicine (KM) institutions. A high percentage of patients who visited a KM institution, followed by a WM institution, and then returned to the same KM institution had visited the WM institution for radiological diagnostic examination. CONCLUSION: This study analyzed nine years of period data from a patient sample of claims data from the Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service to examine the current status of health service use for PF in Korea. We obtained information on the status of WM/KM institution visits for PF treatment, which could be useful for health policymakers. Study findings regarding treatments often used in WM/KM, the frequency of treatments, and their costs could be used as basic data by clinicians and researchers.

Impact of Readmission for Variceal Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding: A Nationwide Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding (VUGIB) is a common and potentially lethal complication of cirrhosis. Population-based data regarding hospital readmission and other outcomes in VUGIB are limited. AIM: In a large United States database of patients with VUGIB, we evaluated readmission rates, mortality rates, healthcare resource consumption, and identified predictors of readmission. METHODS: The 2017 Nationwide Readmission Database using ICD-10 codes was used to identify all adult patients admitted for VUGIB. Primary outcomes were 30- and 90-day readmission rates. Secondary outcomes included mortality, healthcare resource consumption, and predictors of readmission. Multivariate regression analysis was used to adjust for potential confounders. RESULTS: In 2017, there were 26,498 patients with VUGIB discharged from their index hospitalization, and 24.7% were readmitted (all-cause) within 30-days and 41.5% within 90-days. Recurrent VUGIB accounted for 26.7% and 28.9% of 30- and 90-day readmissions, respectively. Compared to index admissions, 30-day readmissions were associated with higher mortality (4.3% vs. 6.4%, p < 0.01), increased mean hospital length of stay (5.6 days vs. 4.5 days, p < 0.01), and charges ($65,984 vs. $53,784, p < 0.01), with similar findings in 90-day readmissions. Factors associated with 30-day readmission included end-stage renal disease (HR 1.2, p < 0.05), chronic kidney disease (HR 1.31, p < 0.01), and acute kidney injury (HR 1.14, p < 0.05). CONCLUSION: Based on a nationwide cohort of hospitalized VUGIB patients, 25% were readmitted within 30-days and 42% within 90-days. Readmission was associated with increased mortality and healthcare consumption compared to the index admission. Additionally, acute and chronic renal injury were predictors of patients at high-risk for readmission.

Development of the reproduction number from coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 case data in Germany and implications for political measures.

BACKGROUND: SARS-CoV-2 has induced a worldwide pandemic and subsequent non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to control the spread of the virus. As in many countries, the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in Germany has led to a consecutive roll-out of different NPIs. As these NPIs have (largely unknown) adverse effects, targeting them precisely and monitoring their effectiveness are essential. We developed a compartmental infection dynamics model with specific features of SARS-CoV-2 that allows daily estimation of a time-varying reproduction number and published this information openly since the beginning of April 2020. Here, we present the transmission dynamics in Germany over time to understand the effect of NPIs and allow adaptive forecasts of the epidemic progression. METHODS: We used a data-driven estimation of the evolution of the reproduction number for viral spreading in Germany as well as in all its federal states using our model. Using parameter estimates from literature and, alternatively, with parameters derived from a fit to the initial phase of COVID-19 spread in different regions of Italy, the model was optimized to fit data from the Robert Koch Institute. RESULTS: The time-varying reproduction number (Rt) in Germany decreased to <1 in early April 2020, 2-3 weeks after the implementation of NPIs. Partial release of NPIs both nationally and on federal state level correlated with moderate increases in Rt until August 2020. Implications of state-specific Rt on other states and on national level are characterized. Retrospective evaluation of the model shows excellent agreement with the data and usage of inpatient facilities well within the healthcare limit. While short-term predictions may work for a few weeks, long-term projections are complicated by unpredictable structural changes. CONCLUSIONS: The estimated fraction of immunized population by August 2020 warns of a renewed outbreak upon release of measures. A low detection rate prolongs the delay reaching a low case incidence number upon release, showing the importance of an effective testing-quarantine strategy. We show that real-time monitoring of transmission dynamics is important to evaluate the extent of the outbreak, short-term projections for the burden on the healthcare system, and their response to policy changes.

Long-term benefits of digital cognitive behavioural therapy for insomnia: Follow-up report from a randomized clinical trial.

Digital cognitive behavioural therapy (dCBT) is an effective treatment for chronic insomnia and also improves well-being and quality of life (QoL). We assessed whether these benefits are sustained and if the effects of dCBT extend to the use of sleep medication and healthcare. In total 1,711 adults (48.0 ± 13.8 years, 77.6% female) with complaints of chronic insomnia participated in a previously published randomized controlled trial (ISRCTN 60530898) comparing dCBT (n = 853) with sleep hygiene education (SHE, n = 858). At weeks 0, 4, 8, 24, 36 and 48, we assessed functional health (Patient-Reported Outcomes Measurement Information System: Global Health Scale); psychological well-being (Warwick-Edinburgh Mental Well-being Scale) and sleep-related QoL (Glasgow Sleep Impact Index), prescribed and non-prescribed sleep medication use, and healthcare utilization. At week 25, those who received SHE at baseline were offered dCBT. dCBT improved functional health (difference: 2.45, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.03; 2.88, Cohen's d: 0.50, p < .001), psychological well-being (difference: 4.34, 95% CI: 3.70; 4.98, Cohen's d: 0.55, p < .001) and sleep-related QoL (difference: -44.61, 95%CI: -47.17; -42.05, Cohen's d: -1.44, p < .001) at week 48 compared to baseline. At week 24 dCBT, compared to SHE, also reduced use of prescription and non-prescription sleep medication up to week 24 (adjusted rate ratio [RR]: 0.64, 95% CI: 0.42; 0.97, p = .037 and adjusted RR: 0.52, 95% CI: 0.37; 0.74, p < .0001, respectively), but not healthcare utilization. Uncontrolled follow-up suggests that these effects were sustained for non-prescribed sleep medication (RR: 0.52, 95% CI: 0.40; 0.67, p < .001). In conclusion, this study suggests that dCBT results in sustained benefits to insomnia and its daytime outcomes.

Anal incontinence: long-term alterations in the incidence and healthcare usage.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of the study was to determine the alterations in the occurrence of incontinence and how subjects suffering from incontinence seek and receive healthcare services over a 10-year follow-up period. METHODS: Postal questionnaires (Wexner Incontinence Score, Fecal Incontinence Quality of Life Scale, a questionnaire to investigate the management of fecal incontinence and the frequency of urinary incontinence) were sent to subjects who had reported anal incontinence in our population-based study in 2003. For each incontinent person (n = 155) from the 2003 series, we identified two control subjects (n = 310) who did not suffer from incontinence. RESULTS: Of the initially incontinent, 47 (58%) had remained incontinent after a follow up of 10 years. Almost 80% of the incontinent subjects in 2012 were female. Of the 152 initially continent, 12 (7.9%) had developed symptoms, all of whom were females. Urinary incontinence was present in approximately 60% of incontinent subjects. The majority (57.8%) of the subjects still incontinent in 2012 felt that they needed help for the complaint, but only 30.9% had received any, and only 7.4% received any benefit. The most common treatment was medication. The subjective incontinence impaired the quality of life. CONCLUSION: Incontinence is a chronic long-lasting disorder. The current management of anal incontinence is not satisfactory. The primary healthcare system should be more aware of the nature of this condition to find and offer treatment for the patients.

Inequalities in health care use among older adults in Sweden 1992-2011: a repeated cross-sectional study of Swedes aged 77 years and older.

AIMS: In the last decades, the Swedish health care system was reformed to promote free choice; however, it has been questioned whether older adults benefit from these reforms. It has also been proposed that reforms promoting free choice might increase inequalities in health care use. Thus, the aim of this study is to investigate socioeconomic differences in health care use among older adults in Sweden, from 1992 to 2011. METHODS: The Swedish Panel Study of the Living Conditions of the Oldest Old (SWEOLD) is a nationally representative study of Swedes over 76 years old, including both institutionalized and community-dwelling persons. We analyzed cross-sectional data from SWEOLD waves in 1992, 2002 and 2011 (n ≈ 600/wave); and performed multivariate analyses to investigate whether socioeconomic position was associated with health care use (inpatient, outpatient and dental services) after need was accounted for. RESULTS: For the period of 1992-2011, we found that higher education was associated with more use of outpatient and dental care, both before and after adjustment for need. The association between education and inpatient or outpatient care use did not change over time. There was an increase in the proportion of older adults whom used dental care over the 19-year period, and there was a tendency for the socioeconomic differences regarding dentist visits to decrease over time. CONCLUSIONS: Our study covering 19 years showed relatively stable findings for socioeconomic differences in health care use among older adults in Sweden. We found there was a slight decrease in inequality in dental care; but unchanged socioeconomic differences in outpatient care, regardless of the changes that occurred in the Swedish health care system.

Does children's healthcare seeking change after participation in a musculoskeletal study? A register-based study.

BACKGROUND: Participating in research studies often involves interactions with healthcare professionals, potentially influencing the participant's future help-seeking behaviour. We investigated whether participating in the Childhood Health Activity and Motor Performance School Study - Denmark (CHAMPS) (2008-2014), which involved telephone consultations and clinical assessments by healthcare professionals with participants experiencing musculoskeletal complaints, changed frequency of contacts with primary public healthcare services among participants over the subsequent five-years-period, compared to non-participating children. METHODS: Using Danish health register data from 1998 to 2020, we compared CHAMPS participant's and two control group's contacts with private physiotherapists, chiropractors (outside hospitals), and general practitioners: a random 10% sample of children from Denmark (National Controls), and a secondary local control group (Local Controls) during three periods: Before (1998-31.10.2008), during (01.11.2008-20.06.2014), and after (21.06.2014-31.12.2019) the CHAMPS-study. Separate multivariable Poisson regression models were used to assess the differences between groups for the outcome variables: contacts with physiotherapists, chiropractors, and general practitioners, and overall contacts. RESULTS: Compared to National Controls, the CHAMPS-Group had fewer physiotherapy contacts before the study with an estimated mean of 0.01 vs 0.02 per person-year, and after (0.13 vs 0.18 per person-year), corresponding to a crude incidence rate ratio (IRR) of 0.69 (95% confidence intervals (CI): 0.58-0.83) after the study period. However, they had more chiropractor contacts before (0.05 vs 0.03), and after (0.21 vs 0.09) the study, with a crude IRR of 2.29 (95% CI: 1.93-2.71) after the study period. General practice contacts were equal for the CHAMPS-group compared to national controls (5.84 vs 5.84) before the study but reduced during and after (3.21 vs 3.71), with a crude IRR of 0.86 (95% CI: 0.83-0.90) after the study. Comparable patterns of contacts changes from before to after the study were observed between the CHAMPS-group and the Local Controls except for physiotherapy which was equal between the two groups after the study. CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest that research studies involving systematic engagement with participants experiencing musculoskeletal complaints can influence subsequent healthcare-seeking behaviour. Future research should address the influence of health literacy, health education, and healthcare provider recommendations on healthcare decisions during such research studies.

The compassionate communities connectors program: effect on healthcare usage.

Background: Public health approaches to palliative and end-of-life care focus on enhancing the integration of services and providing a comprehensive approach that engages the assets of local communities. However, few studies have evaluated the relative costs and benefits of providing care using these service models. Objectives: To assess the effect on healthcare usage of a community-based palliative care program ('Compassionate Communities Connectors') where practical and social support was delivered by community volunteers to people living with advanced life-limiting illnesses in regional Western Australia. Design: Controlled before-and-after study/Cost-consequence analysis. Methods: A total of 43 community-based patients participated in the program during the period 2020-2022. A comparator population of 172 individuals with advanced life-limiting illnesses was randomly selected from usage data from the same set of health services. Results: Relative to controls, the intervention group had lower hospitalizations per month [Incidence rate ratio (IRR): 0.37; 95% CI: 0.18-0.77, p = 0.007], less hospital days per month (IRR: 0.23; 95% CI: 0.11-0.49, p < 0.001) and less emergency presentations (IRR: 0.56; 95% CI: 0.34-0.94, p = 0.028. The frequency of outpatient contacts overall was two times higher for the intervention group (IRR: 2.07; 95% CI: 1.11-3.86, p = 0.022), indicating the Connector program may have shifted individuals away from the hospital system and toward community-based care. Estimated net savings of $AUD 518,701 would be achieved from adopting the Connector program, assuming enrollment of 100 patients over an average 6-month participation period. Conclusion: This combined healthcare usage and economic analysis of the 'Compassionate Communities Connectors' program demonstrates the benefits of optimizing palliative care services using home-based and community-centered interventions, with gains for the health system through improved patient outcomes and reduced total healthcare costs (including fewer hospitalizations and readmissions). These findings, coupled with the other published results, suggest that investment in the Connectors program has the capacity to reduce net health sector expenditure while also improving outcomes for people with life-limiting illnesses. Trial Registration: Australian and New Zealand Clinical Trial Registry: ACTRN12620000326998.

Sex-Specific Patient Journeys in Early Parkinson's Disease in the Netherlands.

Objective: To reconstruct a sex-specific patient journey for Dutch persons with Parkinson's disease (PD) during the first 5 years after diagnosis. Method: We analyzed a national administrative medical claims database containing data of all patients newly diagnosed with PD between 2012 and 2016 in the Netherlands. We performed time-to-event analysis to identify the moments when patients received care from neurologists, allied healthcare therapists or general practitioners. We also extracted relevant clinical milestones: unexpected hospitalization for PD, pneumonia, orthopedic injuries, nursing home admission, and death. Using these data, we constructed the patient journey stratified for sex. Results: We included claims data of 13,518 men and 8,775 women with newly diagnosed PD in the Netherlands. While we found little difference in neurologist consultations, women visited general practitioners and physiotherapists significantly earlier and more often (all p-values < 0.001). After 5 years, 37.9% (n = 3,326) of women had visited an occupational therapist and 18.5% (n = 1,623) a speech and language therapist at least once. This was 33.1% (n = 4,474) and 23.7% (n = 3,204) for men. Approximately 2 years after diagnosis, PD-related complications (pneumonia, orthopedic injuries, and PD-related hospitalization) occurred for the first time (women: 1.8 years; men: 2.3 years), and after 5 years, 72.9% (n = 6,397) of women, and 68.7% (n = 9,287) of men had experienced at least one. Discussion: Considering the strengths and limitations of our methods, our findings suggest that women experience complications and access most healthcare services sooner after diagnosis and more frequently than men. The identified sex differences extend the debate about phenotypical differences in PD between men and women.