Investment case for small and sick newborn care in Tanzania: systematic analyses.

BACKGROUND: Small and sick newborn care (SSNC) is critical for national neonatal mortality reduction targets by 2030. Investment cases could inform implementation planning and enable coordinated resource mobilisation. We outline development of an investment case for Tanzania to estimate additional financing for scaling up SSNC to 80% of districts as part of health sector strategies to meet the country's targets. METHODS: We followed five steps: (1) reviewed national targets, policies and guidelines; (2) modelled potential health benefits by increased coverage of SSNC using the Lives Saved Tool; (3) estimated setup and running costs using the Neonatal Device Planning and Costing Tool, applying two scenarios: (A) all new neonatal units and devices with optimal staffing, and (B) half new and half modifying, upgrading, or adding resources to existing neonatal units; (4) calculated budget impact and return on investment (ROI) and (5) identified potential financing opportunities. RESULTS: Neonatal mortality rate was forecast to fall from 20 to 13 per 1000 live births with scale-up of SSNC, superseding the government 2025 target of 15, and close to the 2030 Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 target of <12. At 85% endline coverage, estimated cumulative lives saved were 36,600 by 2025 and 80,000 by 2030. Total incremental costs were estimated at US$166 million for scenario A (US$112 million set up and US$54 million for running costs) and US$90 million for scenario B (US$65 million setup and US$25 million for running costs). Setup costs were driven by infrastructure (83%) and running costs by human resources (60%). Cost per capita was US$0.93 and the ROI is estimated to be between US$8-12 for every dollar invested. CONCLUSIONS: ROI for SSNC is higher compared to other health investments, noting many deaths averted followed by full lifespan. This is conservative since disability averted is not included. Budget impact analysis estimated a required 2.3% increase in total government health expenditure per capita from US$40.62 in 2020, which is considered affordable, and the government has already allocated additional funding. Our proposed five-step SSNC investment case has potential for other countries wanting to accelerate progress.

Investment Case for a Comprehensive Package of Interventions Against Hepatitis B in China: Applied Modeling to Help National Strategy Planning.

BACKGROUND: In 2016, the first global viral hepatitis elimination targets were endorsed. An estimated one-third of the world's population of individuals with chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection live in China and liver cancer is the sixth leading cause of mortality, but coverage of first-line antiviral treatment was low. In 2015, China was one of the first countries to initiate a consultative process for a renewed approach to viral hepatitis. We present the investment case for the scale-up of a comprehensive package of HBV interventions. METHODS: A dynamic simulation model of HBV was developed and used to simulate the Chinese HBV epidemic. We evaluated the impact, costs, and return on investment of a comprehensive package of prevention and treatment interventions from a societal perspective, incorporating costs of management of end-stage liver disease and lost productivity costs. RESULTS: Despite the successes of historical vaccination scale-up since 1992, there will be a projected 60 million people still living with HBV in 2030 and 10 million HBV-related deaths, including 5.7 million HBV-related cancer deaths between 2015 and 2030. This could be reduced by 2.1 million by highly active case-finding and optimal antiviral treatment regimens. The package of interventions is likely to have a positive return on investment to society of US$1.57 per US dollar invested. CONCLUSIONS: Increases in HBV-related deaths for the next few decades pose a major public health threat in China. Active case-finding and access to optimal antiviral treatment are required to mitigate this risk. This investment case approach provides a real-world example of how applied modeling can support national dialog and inform policy planning.

Impact of investment case on equitable access to maternal and child health services in Nepal: a quasi-experimental study.

BACKGROUND: Disparities in the use of maternal, neonatal and child health (MNCH) services remain a concern in Low- and Middle-Income countries such as Nepal. Commonly observed disparities exist in education, income, ethnic groups, administrative regions and province-level in Nepal. In order to improve equitable outcomes for MNCH and to scale-up quality services, an Investment Case (IC) approach was lunched in the Asia Pacific region. The study assessed the impact of the IC intervention package in maternal and child health outcomes in Nepal. METHODS: The study used a quasi-experimental design extracting data from the Nepal Demographic Health Surveys - 2011 (pre-assessment) and 2016 (post-assessment) for 16 intervention and 24 control districts. A Difference in Difference (DiD) analysis was conducted to assess the impact of the intervention on maternal and child health outcomes. The linear regression method was used to calculate the DiD, adjusting for potential covariates. The final models were arrived by stepwise backward method including the confounding variables significant at p < 0.05. RESULTS: The results of the DiD analyses showed at least four antenatal care visits (ANC) decreased in the intervention area (DiD% = - 4.8), while the delivery conducted by skilled birth attendants increased (DiD% = 6.6) compared to control area. However, the adjusted regression coefficient showed that these differences were not significant, indicating a null effect of the intervention. Regarding the child health outcomes, children with underweight (DiD% = 6.3), and wasting (DiD% = 5.4) increased, and stunting (DiD% = - 6.3) decreased in the intervention area compared to control area. The adjusted regression coefficient showed that the difference was significant only for wasting (ß = 0.019, p = 0.002), indicating the prevalence of wasting increased in the intervention group compared to the control group. CONCLUSION: The IC approach implemented in Nepal did not show improvements in maternal and child health outcomes compared to control districts. The use of the IC approach to improve MCH in Nepal should be discussed and, if further used, the process of implementation should be strictly monitored and evaluated.

Estimating the risk of declining funding for malaria in Ghana: the case for continued investment in the malaria response.

BACKGROUND: Ghana has made impressive progress against malaria, decreasing mortality and morbidity by over 50% between 2005 and 2015. These gains have been facilitated in part, due to increased financial commitment from government and donors. Total resources for malaria increased from less than USD 25 million in 2006 to over USD 100 million in 2011. However, the country still faces a high burden of disease and is at risk of declining external financing due to its strong economic growth and the consequential donor requirements for increased government contributions. The resulting financial gap will need to be met domestically. The purpose of this study was to provide economic evidence of the potential risks of withdrawing financing to shape an advocacy strategy for resource mobilization. METHODS: A compartmental transmission model was developed to estimate the impact of a range of malaria interventions on the transmission of Plasmodium falciparum malaria between 2018 and 2030. The model projected scenarios of common interventions that allowed the attainment of elimination and those that predicted transmission if interventions were withheld. The outputs of this model were used to generate costs and economic benefits of each option. RESULTS: Elimination was predicted using the package of interventions outlined in the national strategy, particularly increased net usage and improved case management. Malaria elimination in Ghana is predicted to cost USD 961 million between 2020 and 2029. Compared to the baseline, elimination is estimated to prevent 85.5 million cases, save 4468 lives, and avert USD 2.2 billion in health system expenditures. The economic gain was estimated at USD 32 billion in reduced health system expenditure, increased household prosperity and productivity gains. Through malaria elimination, Ghana can expect to see a 32-fold return on their investment. Reducing interventions, predicted an additional 38.2 clinical cases, 2500 deaths and additional economic losses of USD 14.1 billion. CONCLUSIONS: Malaria elimination provides robust epidemiological and economic benefits, however, sustained financing is need to accelerate the gains in Ghana. Although government financing has increased in the past decade, the amount is less than 25% of the total malaria financing. The evidence generated by this study can be used to develop a robust domestic strategy to overcome the financial barriers to achieving malaria elimination in Ghana.

Investment case for two-year post university speciality training in family medicine in Tajikistan: how much is needed for continuing and scaling up the improved education of family doctors?

BACKGROUND: A new two-year Post University Specialty Training (PUST) programme in family medicine was introduced to improve the quality of postgraduate speciality medical education in Tajikistan. Postgraduate education of family doctors (FDs) needs to be urgently scaled up, as 38% of FD positions in Tajikistan remained unfilled in 2018. Moreover, the international financial support for the PUST programme is ending. This investment case assesses the minimum funding needed for the continuation and scale-up of PUST and establishes the rationale for the investment in the light of a recent evaluation. METHODS: The costs of the programme were calculated for 2018 and a scale-up forecast made for the period 2019-2023. The impact of the scale-up on the shortage of FDs was assessed. An evaluation using a Multiple Choice Questionnaire and Objective Structured Clinical Examination (OSCE) assessed and compared theoretical knowledge, clinical skills and competencies of PUST trained and conventionally trained FDs. RESULTS: The annual costs of the programme were US$ 228,000 in 2018. The total investment needed for scaling up PUST from 31 new FDs in 2018 to 100 FD graduates each year by 2023 was US$ 802,000.However, when the retirement of FDs and population growth are considered, the scale-up will result only in maintaining the current level of FDs working and not solve the country's FD shortage. The PUST FDs demonstrated significantly better clinical skills than the conventionally trained interns, scoring 60 and 45% of OSCE points, respectively. Theoretical knowledge showed a similar trend; PUST FDs answered 44% and interns 38% of the questions correctly. CONCLUSIONS: The two-year PUST programme has clearly demonstrated it produces better skilled family doctors than the conventional one-year internship, albeit some enduring quality concerns do still prevail. The discontinuation of international support for PUST would be a major setback and risks potentially losing the benefits of the programme for family medicine and also other specialities. To guarantee the supply of adequately trained FDs and address the FD shortage, the PUST should be continued and scaled up. Therefore, it is essential that international support is extended and a gradual transition to sustainable national financing gets underway.

Innovative strategies for the elimination of viral hepatitis at a national level: A country case series.

Viral hepatitis is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide, but has long been neglected by national and international policymakers. Recent modelling studies suggest that investing in the global elimination of viral hepatitis is feasible and cost-effective. In 2016, all 194 member states of the World Health Organization endorsed the goal to eliminate viral hepatitis as a public health threat by 2030, but complex systemic and social realities hamper implementation efforts. This paper presents eight case studies from a diverse range of countries that have invested in responses to viral hepatitis and adopted innovative approaches to tackle their respective epidemics. Based on an investment framework developed to build a global investment case for the elimination of viral hepatitis by 2030, national activities and key enablers are highlighted that showcase the feasibility and impact of concerted hepatitis responses across a range of settings, with different levels of available resources and infrastructural development. These case studies demonstrate the utility of taking a multipronged, public health approach to: (a) evidence-gathering and planning; (b) implementation; and (c) integration of viral hepatitis services into the Agenda for Sustainable Development. They provide models for planning, investment and implementation strategies for other countries facing similar challenges and resource constraints.

The return on investment for the prevention and treatment of childhood and adolescent overweight and obesity in China: a modelling study.

Background: The rapid increase in child and adolescent overweight and obesity (OAO) in China has a significant health and economic impact. This study undertook an investment case analysis to evaluate the health and economic impacts of child and adolescent OAO in China and the potential health and economic returns from implementing specific policies and interventions. Methods: The analysis estimates the reduction in mortality and morbidity from implementing a set of evidence-based interventions across China between 2025 and 2092 using a deterministic Markov cohort model. Modelled interventions were identified by literature review and expert recommendation and include fiscal and regulatory policies, eHealth breastfeeding promotion, school-based interventions, and nutritional counselling by physicians. The study applies a societal costing perspective to model the economic impact on healthcare cost savings, wages, and productivity during adulthood. By projecting and comparing the costs between a status quo scenario and an intervention scenario, the study estimates the return on investment (ROI) for interventions separately and in combination. Findings: Without intervention China will experience 3.3 billion disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) due its current levels of child and adolescent OAO and a lifetime economic impact of CNY 218 trillion (USD 31.6 trillion), or a lifetime CNY 2.5 million loss per affected child or adolescent (USD 350 thousand). National implementation of all five interventions would avert 179.4 million DALYs and result in CNY 13.1 trillion of benefits over the model cohort's lifetime. Implementing fiscal and regulatory policies had the strongest ROI, with benefits accruing at least 10 years after implementation. Scaling up China's current school-based interventions offers China significant health and economic gains, however, the ROI is lower than other modelled interventions. Interpretation: Effective prevention and treatment of child and adolescent OAO is critical to China's health and economic development. Multiple interventions offer a comprehensive approach to address the various factors that increase risk of child and adolescent OAO. Nonetheless, fiscal and regulatory policies offer the strongest health and economic gains. Funding: Funding was provided by UNICEF China.

The Macroeconomic Impact of Increasing Investments in Malaria Control in 26 High Malaria Burden Countries: An Application of the Updated EPIC Model.

BACKGROUND: Malaria remains a major public health problem. While globally malaria mortality affects predominantly young children, clinical malaria affects all age groups throughout life. Malaria not only threatens health but also child education and adult productivity while burdening government budgets and economic development. Increased investments in malaria control can contribute to reduce this burden but have an opportunity cost for the economy. Quantifying the net economic value of investing in malaria can encourage political and financial commitment. METHODS: We adapted an existing macroeconomic model to simulate the effects of reducing malaria on the gross domestic product (GDP) of 26 high burden countries while accounting for the opportunity costs of increased investments in malaria. We compared two scenarios differing in their level of malaria investment and associated burden reduction: sustaining malaria control at 2015 intervention coverage levels, time at which coverage levels reached their historic peak and scaling-up coverage to reach the 2030 global burden reduction targets. We incorporated the effects that reduced malaria in children and young adolescents may have on the productivity of working adults and on the future size of the labour force augmented by educational returns, skills, and experience. We calibrated the model using estimates from linked epidemiologic and costing models on these same scenarios and from published country-specific macroeconomic data. RESULTS: Scaling-up malaria control could produce a dividend of US$ 152 billion in the modelled countries, equivalent to 0.17% of total GDP projected over the study period across the 26 countries. Assuming a larger share of malaria investments is paid out from domestic savings, the dividend would be smaller but still significant, ranging between 0.10% and 0.14% of total projected GDP. Annual GDP gains were estimated to increase over time. Lower income and higher burden countries would experience higher gains. CONCLUSION: Intensified malaria control can produce a multiplied return despite the opportunity cost of greater investments.

What Drives the Value of a Shigella Vaccine?

The development and licensure of a safe and highly efficacious Shigella vaccine has been a priority in international public health circles for decades and would represent a great scientific achievement. Nonetheless, in the context of increasingly crowded and costly childhood immunization programs, and with a myriad of other new and improved vaccines currently or soon on the market, there is no guarantee that even a highly effective Shigella vaccine would become a priority for adoption and introduction by the low- and middle-income countries that could benefit from it the most. We discuss here some of the major determinants and questions regarding the introduction of Shigella vaccines and the importance of developing a succinct, compelling public health value proposition.

Predicting the cost of malaria elimination in the Asia-Pacific.

Over the past decade, the countries of the Asia-Pacific region have made significant progress towards the goal of malaria elimination by the year 2030. It is widely accepted that for the region to meet this goal, an intensification of efforts supported by sustained funding is required. However, robust estimates are needed for the optimal coverage and components of malaria elimination packages and the resources required to implement them. In this collection, a multispecies mathematical and economic modelling approach supported by the estimated burden of disease is used to make preliminary estimates for the cost of elimination and develop an evidence-based investment case for the region.

A Health System-Based Investment Case for Adolescent Health.

PURPOSE: This study argues that investments in the health of the world's 1.2 billion adolescents is a critical component of the overall investment case for adolescents and is vital for achieving the United Nation's Sustainable Development Agenda. We undertake a benefit cost analysis of a range of interventions to improve adolescent health. METHODS: We examined investments in intervention-specific costs, program costs, and health systems costs at a country level for 40 low- and middle-income countries that account for about 90% of adolescents in low- and middle-income countries. Intervention-specific costs and impacts were computed using the OneHealth Tool, whereas other published resources were used for the program and health systems costs. Interventions modeled include those addressing physical, sexual, and reproductive health; maternal and newborn health; and some noncommunicable diseases. Two coverage scenarios were simulated: an unchanged coverage scenario and one in which the coverage increases to achieve a high coverage by 2030. RESULTS: Key outcomes included estimates of the costs, health-related impacts, and benefit-cost ratios (BCRs). For the 66 adolescent health interventions modeled for 40 countries, the total cost for the period of 2015-2030 was $358.4 billion or an average of $4.5 per capita each year. From 2015 to 2030, there were 7.0 million deaths averted, and 1.5 million serious disabilities averted. At a 3% discount rate, the average BCR were 12.6, 9.9, and 6.4 for low-income, lower middle-income, and upper middle-income countries, respectively. Countries with adolescent mortality rates ≥200 per 100,000 had an average BCR of 14.8 compared with countries with adolescent mortality rates <100 per 100,000 had an average BCR of 5.7. CONCLUSIONS: The results show that there are substantial benefits from a program of interventions to improve adolescent health.

Lessons Learned From Developing an Eradication Investment Case for Lymphatic Filariasis.

In the last few years, the concepts of disease elimination and eradication have again gained consideration from the global health community, with Guinea worm disease (dracunculiasis) on track to become the first parasitic disease to be eradicated. Given the many complex and interlinking issues involved in committing to a disease eradication initiative, such commitments must be based on a solid assessment of a broad range of factors. In this chapter, we discuss the value and implications of undertaking a systematic and fact-based analysis of the overall situation prior to embarking on an elimination or eradication programme. As an example, we draw upon insights gained from a series of lymphatic filariasis (LF) studies from our research group that adopted an eradication investment case (EIC) framework. The justification for EICs, and related epidemiological, geospatial and other mathematical/operational research modelling, stems from the necessity for proper planning prior to committing to disease eradication. Across all considerations for LF eradication, including: time, treatments, level of investments necessary, health impact, cost-effectiveness, and broader economic benefits, scaling-up mass drug administration coverage to all endemic communities immediately provided the most favourable results. The coherent and consistent pursuit of eradication goals, operationally tailored to a given socioecological system and based on integrated measures of available tools will lead relatively rapidly to elimination in many parts of endemic areas and provide the cornerstone towards eradication.