The Cancer Incidence and Trends From 2011 to 2018 in Ma'anshan, China: A Registry-Based Observational Study.

BACKGROUND: The cancer burden in China has been increasing over the decades. However, the cancer incidence remains unknown in Ma'anshan, which is one of the central cities in the Yangtze River Delta in Eastern China. The study was designed to describe the cancer incidence and trends in Ma'anshan from 2011 to 2018, providing information about cancer etiology that is useful for prevention programs. METHODS: The cancer incidence rate and age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) were calculated using the cancer registry data in Ma'anshan during 2011-2018. The average annual percentage change (AAPC) of the ASIR was analyzed by the Joinpoint regression analysis. Age, period, and cohort effects on cancer incidence were estimated through the age-period-cohort model. RESULTS: There were 13,508 newly diagnosed cancer cases in males and 9558 in females in Ma'anshan during 2011-2018. The ASIR maintained a steady trend in both males and females. Age effects showed that cancer risk increased with age in both genders; no visible period effects were detected during this study period. Cohort effects changed slowly until the end of the 1950s, then started decreasing in males while increasing in females after 1960. Lung, gastric, female breast, colorectal, cervical, esophageal, liver, thyroid, lymphoma, and pancreatic cancer were the most common cancers in Ma'anshan during the study period. The ASIR of gastric cancer (AAPC: -3.72%), esophageal cancer (AAPC: -8.30%), and liver cancer (AAPC: -5.55%) declined, while that of female breast cancer (AAPC: 3.91%), colorectal cancer (AAPC: 3.23%), and thyroid cancer (AAPC: 22.38%) rose. CONCLUSION: During 2011-2018, the cancer incidence in Ma'anshan was lower than that in China, nation-wide. The incidence of upper gastrointestinal cancer decreased gradually while female breast, colorectal, and thyroid cancers showed an upward trend, consistent with the changes in the cancer spectrum in China. Further studies should be designed to discover the underlying causes of these findings.

Trends in polypharmacy among U.S. adults with asthma, 2001-2020.

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to evaluate trends in polypharmacy prevalence among adults with asthma in the United States. METHODS: Data from the 2001-2020 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey were used to estimate the weighted prevalence of polypharmacy. Joinpoint regression analysis was conducted to evaluate trends in polypharmacy. Trends were first evaluated overall and then stratified by asthma severity and asthma control. A multivariable logistic regression model was used to identify factors associated with polypharmacy. RESULTS: From 2001 to 2020, a stable trend in polypharmacy among U.S. adults with asthma was observed (average annual percent change [AAPC]=1.02, p=0.71). Trends across different asthma severity were stable (mild asthma: AAPC=2.93, p=0.20; moderate asthma: AAPC=-2.22, p=0.35; severe asthma: AAPC=0.45, p=0.82). Trends in adults with good asthma control and those with poor control stayed constant (good control: AAPC=0.82, p=0.68; poor control: AAPC=-1.22, p=0.82). Several factors, including older age, females, Non-Hispanic Black, health insurance coverage, family income, number of healthcare visits, former smokers, multi-morbidities, asthma severity, and asthma control, were associated with polypharmacy. CONCLUSIONS: Polypharmacy prevalence has remained constant among U.S. adults with asthma over the past two decades. Despite a stable overall trend, disparities in polypharmacy prevalence persist across different asthma severity and control status, underscoring the need for tailored medication management to improve asthma care.

Trend and driving factors in burden of age-related macular degeneration in older adults aged 60-89 years: a global analysis over three decades.

BACKGROUND: To explore temporal trends and determine driving factors of age-related macular degeneration (AMD) burden in older adults aged 60-89 years at global, regional and national levels from 1990 to 2019. METHODS: Prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs) were extracted. Joinpoint regression analysis was adopted to calculate average annual percentage change and to identify the year with the most significant changes. Global trends were stratified by sex, age and sociodemographic index, and regional and national trends were explored. Decomposition analysis was conducted to determine what extent the forces of population size, age structure and epidemiologic change driving alterations of AMD burden. RESULTS: Globally, prevalence rate slightly increased whereas YLDs rate decreased. The year 2005 marked a turning point where both prevalence and YLDs started to decline. Regionally, Western Sub-Saharan Africa had the highest prevalence and YLDs rates in 2019, with East Asia experiencing the most notable rise in prevalence from 1990 to 2019. Global decomposition revealed that the increased case number was primarily driven by population growth and ageing, and epidemiological change was only detected to lessen but far from offset these impacts. CONCLUSIONS: Although there was only slight increase or even decrease in prevalence and YLDs rates of AMD in older adults, the case number still nearly doubled, which may be primarily attributed to population growth and ageing, coupled with the emerging growing pattern of prevalence rate from 2015, collectively suggesting a huge challenge in control and management of AMD.

Changing Trends in the Global Disease Burden of Pancreatic Cancer from 1990 to 2030.

AIM: To explore the global burden of pancreatic cancer (PC) from 1990 to 2019, evaluate independent effects of age, period, and cohort on the incidence of PC, and predict the incidence of PC in the next decade. METHODS: Data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. We calculated the age-standardized disability-adjusted life years (DALY) rate, age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), and age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) of PC. Joinpoint Poisson regression analysis was performed to identify the temporal trends in the incidence of PC. Then, a two-factor model was constructed using the Poisson log-linear model, and a three-factor model was constructed using the intrinsic estimator (IE) method to estimate the independent effects of age, period, and cohort on the incidence of PC. Finally, the Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model was also used to predict the age-standardized global incidence rate of PC and age-standardized new PC cases from 2020 to 2030. RESULTS: Overall, the DALY rate, ASMR, ASIR, and ASPR all increased from 1990 to 2019. The ASIR in males increased from 6 per 100,000 in 1990 to 7.5 per 100,000 in 2019 and was predicted to rise to 8.2 per 100,000 by 2030. Meanwhile, the ASIR in females rose from 4.5 per 100,000 in 1990 to 5.7 per 100,000 in 2019 and was predicted to rise to 6.3 per 100,000 by 2030. The age effect on the incidence of PC showed sharp increasing trends from 40 to 79 years. The period effect continuously increased with advancing periods, but the cohort effect showed substantial decreasing trends. CONCLUSIONS: The age and period effect on the incidence of PC presented increasing trends, while the cohort effect showed decreasing trends. All indicators of the global burden of PC are increasing in both males and females, and the ASIR is predicted to rise at an alarming rate by 2030. Thus, timely screening and intervention are recommended, especially for earlier birth cohorts at high risk.

Epidemiological study of pediatric nutritional deficiencies: an analysis from the global burden of disease study 2019.

BACKGROUND: Nutritional deficiencies (ND) continue to threaten the lives of millions of people around the world, with children being the worst hit. Nevertheless, no systematic study of the epidemiological features of child ND has been conducted so far. Therefore, we aimed to comprehensively assess the burden of pediatric ND. METHODS: We analyzed data on pediatric ND between 1990 and 2019 from the Global Burden of Disease study (GBD) 2019 at the global, regional, and national levels. In addition, joinpoint regression models were used to assess temporal trends. RESULTS: In 2019, the number of prevalent cases of childhood malnutrition increased to 435,071,628 globally. The global age-standardized incidence, prevalence, and DALY rates showed an increasing trend between 1990 and 2019. Meanwhile, the burden of child malnutrition was negatively correlated with sociodemographic index (SDI). Asia and Africa still carried the heaviest burden. The burden and trends of child malnutrition varied considerably across countries and regions. At the age level, we found that malnutrition was significantly more prevalent among children < 5 years of age. CONCLUSION: Pediatric ND remains a major public health challenge, especially in areas with low SDI. Therefore, primary healthcare services in developing countries should be improved, and effective measures, such as enhanced pre-school education, strengthened nutritional support, and early and aggressive treatment, need to be developed.

Trends in the incidence of cirrhosis in global from 1990 to 2019: A joinpoint and age-period-cohort analysis.

Cirrhosis remains a major public health concern globally; the burden of cirrhosis should be further clarified worldwide and helped us to understand the current situation of cirrhosis. In the present study, we estimate DALYs and mortality rates attributable to several major cirrhosis risk factors and use joinpoint and age-period-cohort methods to determine the trends of cirrhosis incidence and deaths in the global population in the 1990-2019 period. Globally, from 1990 to 2019, the incidence of cirrhosis, deaths due to cirrhosis, and cirrhosis DALY cases increased from 1274 (103 , 95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 1027.2-1548.5) to 2051.6 (103 , 95% UI: 1661.4-2478.1), 1013 (103 , 95% UI: 948.9-1073.9) to 1472 (103 , 95% UI: 1374.6-1578.7), and 34727.7 (103 , 95% UI: 32383.0-37132.8) to 46189.4 (103 , 95% UI: 43027.1-49551.3), respectively. Hepatitis virus was the most important cirrhosis mortality risk factor. Globally, hepatitis virus infection (HBV+HCV) accounted for more than 45% of the incidence of cirrhosis cases and about 50% of cirrhosis deaths. Importantly, from 1990 to 2019, the proportion of cirrhosis incidence due to HBV decreased from 24.3% to 19.8%, whereas that due to alcohol use increased from 18.7% to 21.3%. Additionally, the proportion of NAFLD-induced cirrhosis incidence increased from 5.5% to 6.6% over the same period. Our findings on the global disease burden of cirrhosis provide a valuable resource for developing targeted prevention strategies.

Global, regional, and national burden of intestinal obstruction from 1990 to 2019: an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

BACKGROUND: Intestinal obstruction (IO) is a common surgical acute abdominal condition that places a significant burden on modern health systems. Unfortunately, the global burden and trends of IO remain unknown. Therefore, this study aimed to comprehensively assess its long-term trends and epidemiological features, which will help policymakers to formulate appropriate health policies. METHODS: We conducted an ecological study using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2019. Data on IO were analyzed by sex, age, year, sociodemographic index (SDI), and location according to GBD 2019. In addition, joinpoint regression analysis was used to assess temporal trends. Age-period-cohort analysis (APC Analysis) was conducted to evaluate age, period, and birth cohort effects on IO incidence and mortality risk. RESULTS: Globally, the prevalent and incident cases increased by 56.91% and 86.67% from 1990 to 2019, respectively. Joinpoint regression analysis showed that age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) increased, but age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and age-standardized disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rate decreased over the past three decades. The age effect demonstrated that older people have a higher risk of morbidity and mortality. The period effect of incidence and mortality showed an upward trend from 1990 to 2019. Cohort effect revealed that the incidence and death risk peaked in the earlier-born cohort and was lower in the more recent-born cohort. Notably, we found that the burden of IO was higher in males than in females throughout the study period. There are huge disparities in IO burden among countries. CONCLUSION: Globally, the reported incidence and prevalence of IO increased from 1990 to 2019. The burden of IO differed markedly by age, sex, country, and region. Middle-aged and elderly people over 50 years old were at high risk. Given the ageing population, the burden of IO will be a major public health challenge. Thus, there is a strong necessity to strengthen prevention and early intervention in the at-risk population.

Trends in stroke mortality in La Rioja (Spain) from 1999 to 2022.

INTRODUCTION: Stroke mortality has declined in recent decades, but there appears to be a slowdown in the decline in recent years. We analyze the trends in stroke mortality in La Rioja (Spain) for the period 1999-2022. METHODS: We evaluated stroke mortality using statistical data from the mortality registry of La Rioja (Spain). We adjusted the rates by age and sex and analyzed both overall strokes and subtypes: hemorrhagic and ischemic. To analyze the trend in mortality rates we constructed joinpoint regression models, with associated annual percentage change (APC) RESULTS: Age-standardized stroke mortality declined between 1999 and 2022: females from 98.0 to 29.2 per 100 000; males, from 131.6 to 44.8 per 100 000. We found a decrease in overall stroke mortality in all age groups, except those under 65 years old. Ischemic stroke mortality showed declines in the first decade (APC: 7.3%, CI95%: 4.1-19.1%) and increases in the second decade (APC: 1.6%, CI95%: -1.6-11.7%) among men. In women, the rates declined between 2018 and 2022(APC: -6.6%, CI95%: -5.1-30.6%) after an increase between 2015 and 2017 (APC: 23.5%, CI95%: -20.2-38.3%). For hemorrhagic stroke, we found a consistent rate of decline throughout the entire time period in men (APC: 2.4%, CI95%: 0.9 a 4.0%). In women, rates increased during the period 1999-2009(APC: 1.9%, CI95%: -2.1-22.8%) and decreased 2010-2022 (APC: 6.5%, CI95%: 4.0-25.6%). CONCLUSIONS: Stroke mortality rates have decreased, more so for haemorrhagic than ischaemic strokes.

Epidemiology of Hip Fractures Due to Falls.

Background and Objectives: The epidemiological pattern of the hip fracture burden attributable to falls in Central European countries is still insufficiently known. The aim of this study was to assess the regional and national trends of hip fractures due to falls in Central Europe from 1990 to 2019. Materials and Methods: Using the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 study, this descriptive epidemiological study presents trends in incidence of and Years Lived with Disability (YLDs) from hip fractures due to falls in the region of Central Europe. All estimates (age- and sex-specific rates, and age-standardized rates) were expressed per 100,000. A joinpoint regression analysis was used to assess trends: the average annual percent change (AAPC) with a corresponding 95% confidence interval (95% CI) was calculated. Results: Among all new cases of hip fracture in the population as a whole in Central Europe in 2019, 3.9% in males and 7.0% in females were attributable to falls, while the share of hip fractures due to falls in the population aged 70 and over was 16.9% in males and 20.0% in females. About 400,000 new cases of hip fracture due to falls occurred in the Central European region in 2019 (220,000 among males and 160,000 among females), resulting in 55,000 YLDs (32,000 in females and 22,000 in males). About one-third of all new cases (59,326 in males and 72,790 in females) and YLDs (8585 in males, and 10,622 in females) of hip fractures due to falls were recorded in Poland. From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized incidence rates of hip fracture due to falls showed a decreasing tendency in females (AAPC = -1.1%), and an increasing tendency in males (AAPC = 0.1%). Both in males and females, YLDs rates of hip fracture due to falls in the Central European region decreased (AAPC = -1.6% and AAPC = -2.4%, respectively). Conclusions: Hip fracture due to falls represents an important health issue in the Central European region, although incidences and YLDs declined in the most recent decades. However, further efforts to reduce the burden of hip fractures attributed to falls are needed.

[Temporal relationships between a state of emergency declaration or request and trends in the incidence of unlinked COVID-19 cases in Osaka from October 2020 to May 2021].

Objective　We examined the effectiveness of governmental declarations on the changing temporal trends in the incidence of COVID-19 cases with unknown transmission routes (unlinked cases) before SARS-CoV-2 vaccines became available in Osaka.Methods　Seven-day moving averages of the incidence of unlinked COVID-19 cases were calculated using daily reports posted on the official website of the Osaka Prefectural Government for the third (October 10, 2020-February 28, 2021) and fourth COVID-19 waves and about one week before and after (February 23, 2021-June 27, 2021). Then, we calculated daily percentage changes and identified dates of significant change ("Joinpoint") with a Joinpoint regression analysis. The date of a major change in the behavior of prefectural residents associated with the risk of infection (the date of a sudden change in behavior) was defined as the date counting backward from each Joinpoint date and considering the incubation period and interval between the date of onset and disclosure of the daily report. Subsequently, we examined the temporal relationships between the declaration date and defined date of the sudden change in behavior associated with the risk of infection.Results　Five Joinpoint dates contributing to a significant downward trend were identified: November 23, 2020, and in 2021, January 7, January 18, April 12, and April 30. We defined dates of sudden changes in behavior from each Joinpoint date from the corresponding time lag (8 to 9.9 days): in 2020, November 13 and December 30; in 2021, January 9, April 4, and April 22. Regarding the five estimated dates, the second emergency declaration was issued on January 9, 2021. Further, the first introduction of priority preventive measures was given on April 4, 2021. April 22 fell between the date that the third emergency declaration was requested and the date of its issuance.Conclusion　These descriptive epidemiological findings suggest that the issuance of these declarations could be triggers that reinforced infection avoidance behavior among Osaka prefectural residents, which resulted in the downward trends in unlinked COVID-19 cases.

Spatial and temporal patterns of prostate cancer burden and their association with Socio-Demographic Index in Asia, 1990-2019.

BACKGROUND: Prostate cancer is the second most frequently diagnosed cancer for males worldwide, but the spatial and temporal trends of prostate cancer burden remain unknown in Asia. This study aimed to investigate the changing spatial and temporal trends of incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life year (DALY), and mortality-to-incidence ratio (MIR) of prostate cancer, and their association with the Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) in 48 Asian countries from 1990 to 2019. METHODS: Data were extracted from the Global Health Data Exchange query tool, covering 48 Asian countries from 1990 to 2019. The average annual percent change was calculated to evaluate temporal trends. Spatial autocorrelation analysis was used to obtain spatial patterns, and the association between SDI and prostate cancer burden was estimated using a spatial panel model. RESULTS: In Asia, the age-standardized incidence and prevalence of prostate cancer increased in almost all countries, and its mortality and DALY also increased in over half of the countries. Significantly regional disparities were found in Asia, and the hot spots for incidence, prevalence, mortality, and DALY were all located in Western Asia, the hot spots of percent change also occurred in Western Asia for incidence and DALY. Furthermore, SDI had a positive association with mortality (coef = 2.51, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.13-2.90) and negative association with DALY (coef = -14.99, 95% CI: -20.37 to -9.60) and MIR (coef = -0.95, 95%CI: -0.99 to -0.92). CONCLUSIONS: Prostate cancer burden increased rapidly throughout Asia and substantial disparities had persisted between countries. Geographically targeted interventions are needed to reduce the prostate cancer burden throughout Asia and in specific countries.

Secular trends in incidence and mortality of cervical cancer in India and its states, 1990-2019: data from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 Study.

BACKGROUND: Cervical cancer is the fourth most common cancer that occurs to women worldwide. This study aims to assess trends in incidence and mortality of cervical cancer in India and its states over past three decades for tracking the progress of strategies for the prevention and control of cervical cancer. METHODS: Data on cervical cancer incidence and mortality from 1990 to 2019 for India and its states were extracted from Global Burden of Disease study and were utilized for the analysis. Spatial and rank map has been used to see the changes in incidence and mortality of cervical cancer in different Indian states. Further, joinpoint regression analysis is applied to determine the magnitude of the time trends in the age standardized incidence and mortality rates of cervical cancer. We obtained the average annual percent change (AAPC) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI) for each state. RESULTS: Overall, from 1990 to 2019 Jharkhand (Incidence: -50.22%; Mortality: -56.16%) recorded the highest percentage decrement in cervical cancer incidence and mortality followed by the Himachal Pradesh (Incidence: -48.34%; Mortality: -53.37%). Tamilnadu (1st rank), Jammu & Kashmir and Ladakh (32nd rank) maintained the same rank over the period of three decade for age standardized cervical cancer incidence and mortality. The regression model showed a significant declining trend in India between 1990 and 2019 for age standardized incidence rate (AAPC: -0.82; 95%CI: -1.39 to -0.25; p < 0.05) with highest decline in the period 1998-2005 (AAPC: -3.22; 95%CI: -3.83 to -2.59; p < 0.05). Similarly, a significant declining trend was observed in the age standardized mortality rate of India between 1990 and 2019(AAPC: -1.35; 95%CI: -1.96 to -0.75; p < 0.05) with highest decline in the period 1998-2005 (AAPC: -3.52; 95%CI: -4.17 to -2.86; p < 0.05). CONCLUSION: Though the incidence and mortality of cervical cancer declined over past three decades but it is still a major public health problem in India. Information, education and communication activities for girls, boys, parents and community for the prevention and control of cervical cancer should be provided throughout the country.

Secular trends in the incidence of eating disorders in China from 1990 to 2017: a joinpoint and age-period-cohort analysis.

BACKGROUND: Eating disorders (ED) have increasingly become a global topic of concern for public health. A better understanding of ED incidence is a basic requirement for improving its management. However, the temporal trend of ED incidence in China is still unknown. METHODS: The incidence rates of ED from 1990 to 2017 were collected from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 database according to the following: subtype, i.e. anorexia nervosa (AN) and bulimia nervosa (BN); sex; and age group. The average annual percent changes and relative risks were calculated using joinpoint regression and the age-period-cohort model, respectively. RESULTS: From 1990 to 2017, age-standardized incidence rates of ED continued to increase in males and females, and this variation trend was observed in AN and BN. Joinpoint regression analysis showed that the incidence rates increased in all age groups. Adolescents had the highest risk of developing ED, followed by young adults. Age effects were the most influential risk factor for ED incidence. Period effects showed that the risk of developing ED continuously increased with increasing time periods in BN, but not in ED and AN. Concerning the cohort effects, people born after the 1990s presented a higher risk of ED, though they presented a lower risk of BN as compared to the whole cohort. CONCLUSIONS: ED incidence rates continue to increase in China, particularly among adolescents and young adults. Further etiological studies are needed to explain these increases and to facilitate the early identification of high-risk individuals.

Density of nurses and midwives in sub-Saharan Africa: Trends analysis over the period 2004-2016.

AIM: To analyse the trends of density rates of nurses and midwives per population in sub-Saharan Africa over the period from 2004 to 2016. BACKGROUND: Nursing, the largest health care workforce, is actively contributing to the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals. The African continent is one of the most affected areas by the differences in the density of nurses and midwives indicator. METHODS: Joinpoint regression analysis was applied to identify significant changes in trends of the density of nurses and midwives from the 50 countries of sub-Saharan Africa. RESULTS: From 2004 to 2013, the density of nurses and midwives in sub-Saharan Africa increased significantly from 5.6 to 12.44 per 10,000 population, although it exhibited a increasing trend of a magnitude of 8.3% until 2013 that does not continue from that year. CONCLUSIONS: Only seven countries show an increasing trend, although in the case of the rest, they do not present any trend that suggests a change in this indicator in the short term. IMPLICATIONS FOR NURSING MANAGEMENT: From a macrolevel nursing management point of view, our study shows the importance of implementing actions that contribute to the increase of the nursing workforce in Africa, essential to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals.

Trends in mortality from stroke in the European Union, 1996-2015.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Stroke is the second largest single cause of death in Europe, responsible for 9% and 13% of all deaths in men and women, respectively. There have been large overall declines in stroke mortality rates in the majority of European countries in recent decades. The aim of this study was to analyse trends in mortality caused by stroke in the 28 member countries of the European Union (EU) over the last two decades. METHODS: We extracted data for age-standardized stroke mortality rates per 100 000 in the EU for the period 1996-2015 from the World Health Organization database. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to analyse the trends and compute the annual percent change (APC) in the EU as a whole and by country. Analyses were conducted by gender and by European region. RESULTS: Mortality from stroke has decreased in the EU over the study period by an average APC of 4.2%. All countries showed downward trends, with the sharpest decreases in Estonia, Portugal and Austria. We recorded statistically significant decreases of 4.2% and 4.3% in mortality rates in men and women, respectively, in the whole EU. Southern and western countries showed the steepest decreases, whereas mortality has increased in northern countries in recent years. CONCLUSIONS: Stroke mortality has decreased in the EU, in both sexes, especially in southern and western European countries. Our results could be a reference for the development of primary prevention and acute management of stroke policies focused on countries with higher mortality.

Long-term trends in the incidence of endometriosis in China from 1990 to 2019: a joinpoint and age-period-cohort analysis.

BACKGROUND: Trends in the incidence of endometriosis in China remain unknown. The purpose of this study was to examine the trends in the incidence of endometriosis and the effects of age, period, and cohort on them. METHODS: Trends in endometriosis incidence were estimated using joinpoint regression. Age-period-cohort analysis was used to analyze the effects of age, period, and cohort on these trends. Endometriosis incidences in China (1990-2019) were retrieved from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Annual percentage change and average annual percent change (AAPC) were analyzed by joinpoint regression, and relative risks were analyzed using an age-period-cohort model. RESULTS: Age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) declined between 1990 and 2019 in China, with an overall AAPC of -1.2% (95% CI: -1.20, -1.10). Compared to 1990, the ASIR in 2019 decreased by almost 30%. Moreover, the joinpoint regression analysis revealed that endometriosis ASIRs showed a downward trend across all age groups. A significant age-related effect was seen for endometriosis incidence among young women aged 15-24 years, which then decreased with advancing age. Consistently, the effect of the period on endometriosis incidence showed a declining trend, and the effect of birth cohort decreased by 0.53 (42.7%) from 1938-1942 to 1998-2002. CONCLUSIONS: Endometriosis ASIRs declined from 1990 to 2019. The effects of period and birth cohort on endometriosis incidence exhibited a declining trend across all age groups. The effect of age on endometriosis incidence showed an increasing trend before the age of 24, followed by a decreasing trend with subsequent advancing age.

Trends in incidence and mortality of tuberculosis in India over past three decades: a joinpoint and age-period-cohort analysis.

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis, as a communicable disease, is an ongoing global epidemic that accounts for high burden of global mortality and morbidity. Globally, with an estimated 10 million new cases and around 1.4 million deaths, TB has emerged as one of the top 10 causes of morbidity and mortality in 2019. Worst hit 8 countries account for two thirds of the new TB cases in 2019, with India leading the count. Despite India's engagement in various TB control activities since its first recognition through the resolution passed in the All-India Sanitary Conference in 1912 and launch of first National Tuberculosis Control Programme in 1962, it has remained a major public health challenge to overcome. To accelerate progress towards the goal of ending TB by 2025, 5 years ahead of the global SDG target, it is imperative to outline the incidence and mortality trends of tuberculosis in India. This study aims to provide deep insights into the recent trends of TB incidence and mortality in India from 1990 to 2019. METHODS: This is an observational study based on the most recent data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019. We extracted numbers, age-specific and age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of Tuberculosis for the period 1990-2019 from the Global Health Data Exchange. The average annual percent change (AAPC) along with 95% Confidence Interval (CI) in incidence and mortality were derived by joinpoint regression analysis; the net age, period, and cohort effects on the incidence and mortality rates were estimated by using Age-Period-Cohort model. RESULTS: During the study period, age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of TB in India declines from 390.22 to 223.01 and from 121.72 to 36.11 per 100,000 population respectively. The Joinpoint regression analysis showed a significant decreasing pattern in incidence rates in India between 1990 and 2019 for both male and female; but larger decline was observed in case of females (AAPC: - 2.21; 95% CI: - 2.29 to - 2.12; p < 0.001) as compared to males (AAPC: - 1.63; 95% CI: - 1.71 to - 1.54; p < 0.001). Similar pattern was observed for mortality where the declining trend was sharper for females (AAPC: - 4.35; 95% CI: - 5.12 to - 3.57; p < 0.001) as compared to males (AAPC: - 3.88; 95% CI: - 4.63 to - 3.11; p < 0.001). For age-specific rates, incidence and mortality rates of TB decreased for both male and female across all ages during this period. The age effect showed that both incidence and mortality significantly increased with advancing age; period effect showed that both incidence and mortality decreased with advancing time period; cohort effect on TB incidence and mortality also decreased from earlier birth cohorts to more recent birth cohorts. CONCLUSION: Mortality and Incidence of TB decreased across all age groups for both male and female over the period 1990-2019. The incidence as well as mortality was higher among males as compared to females. The net age effect showed an unfavourable trend while the net period effect and cohort effect presented a favourable trend. Aging was likely to drive a continued increase in the mortality of TB. Though the incidence and mortality of tuberculosis significantly decreased from 1990 to 2019, the annual rate of reduction is not sufficient enough to achieve the aim of India's National Strategic plan 2017-2025. Approximately six decades since the launch of the National Tuberculosis Control Programme, TB still remains a major public health problem in India. Government needs to strengthen four strategic pillars "Detect-Treat-Prevent-Build" (DTPB) in order to achieve TB free India as envisaged in the National Tuberculosis Elimination Programme (2020).

Trend dynamics of thyroid cancer incidence among China and the U.S. adult population from 1990 to 2017: a joinpoint and age-period-cohort analysis.

BACKGROUND: Thyroid cancer (TC) is the most common malignant disease of the endocrine system. Based on the previously published reports, the incidence of TC has been increasing in the past 25 years, and the reason for the increase is not yet clear. The present study aims to reveal the long-term trends and age-period-cohort effects for the incidence of TC in China and the U.S. from 1990 to 2017. METHODS: We examined the trends of TC incidence and the average annual percentage change (AAPC) of rate using the Joinpoint regression analysis in the two countries, for the different genders (men/women) in the Global Burden of Disease (GBD 2017). We further used an age-period-cohort model to analyze age-period-cohort effects on TC incidence. RESULTS: The ASIR of China increased markedly with AAPC of 4.5% (95% confidence interval (CI): 4.0, 5.0%) and 1.8% (1.6, 2.0%) for men and women during 1990-2017. The ASIR of the U. S increased by 1.4% (1.0, 1.8%) and 1.3% (0.9, 1.7%) for men and women from 1990 to 2017.TC increased with the age and period. Aging was one of the most influential factors of TC in China. The age effect increased markedly in the U.S. compared with China. The period effect showed an increase in China while that tended to grow steadily during 1990-2017 in the U.S. The cohort effect peaked in 1963-1967 birth cohorts for men and women in China and declined consistently in the birth cohort in the U.S. CONCLUSION: From 1990 to 2017, due to ionizing radiation and over-diagnosis, age-standardized TC incidence rates in both genders rose in China and the U.S. The standardized incidence rate of women is higher than that of men. It is necessary to provide women with reasonable prevention and protection measures for TC. We need to apply for health services and screening to reduce ionizing radiation.

Rising incidence of late-stage head and neck cancer in the United States.

BACKGROUND: The current study was conducted to determine whether the incidence of late-stage head and neck cancer (HNC) is decreasing and to estimate the risk of late-stage HNC diagnosis based on race and sex. METHODS: Age-adjusted incidence rates for patients aged ≥18 years with stage IV HNC were abstracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database (2004-2015). Rates were stratified by race, sex, and age. Joinpoint regression estimated annual percent changes (APCs) in rates over time, and logistic regression estimated adjusted odds ratios (aORs). RESULTS: There were 57,118 patients with stage IV HNC in the current study cohort, with an average age of 61.9 years. From 2004 to 2015, the age-adjusted incidence rates for stage IV HNC significantly increased by 26.1% (6.11 per 100,000 person-years in 2004 to 7.70 per 100,000 person-years in 2015). White and Asian/Pacific Islander/American Indian/Alaska Native patients had significant increases in incidence (APC for white patients, 3.03 [P < .01] and APC for other races, 1.95 [P < .01]), whereas rates among black patients remained stable but were highest across racial groups. Incidence was higher among males compared with females. When restricted only to patients with stage IVC (metastatic) HNC, there remained a significant increase in incidence, especially for oropharyngeal cancer, which showed a 22.9% increase (0.21 per 100,000 person-years in 2004 vs 0.25 per 100,000 person-years in 2015). Despite a decreasing overall incidence of stage IV HNC in black patients (aOR, 1.28; 95% CI, 1.22-1.34) they, along with males (aOR, 3.95; 95% CI, 3.80-4.11), had significantly increased risks of being diagnosed with late-stage HNC. CONCLUSIONS: There is an increasing incidence of late-stage HNC in the United States, with male patients and black individuals faring the worst.

Epidemiology report: trends in sex-specific cerebrovascular disease mortality in Europe based on WHO mortality data.

AIMS: There have been substantial declines in cerebrovascular disease mortality across much of Europe, mirroring trends in deaths from cardiovascular disease as a whole. No study has investigated trends in cerebrovascular disease, and its subtypes within all European countries. This study aimed to examine sex-specific trends in cerebrovascular disease, and three of its sub-types: ischaemic stroke, haemorrhagic stroke, and subarachnoid haemorrhage (SAH), in Europe between 1980 and 2016. METHODS AND RESULTS: Sex-specific mortality data for each country of the World Health Organization (WHO) Europe region were extracted from the WHO global mortality database and analysed using Joinpoint software to examine trends. The number and location of significant joinpoints for each country by sex and subtype was determined using a log-linear model. The annual percentage change within each segment was calculated along with the average annual percentage change over the duration of all available data. The last 35 years have seen large overall declines in cerebrovascular disease mortality rates in the majority of European countries. While these declines have continued steadily in more than half of countries, this analysis has revealed evidence of recent plateauing and even increases in stroke mortality in a number of countries, in both sexes, and in all four geographical sub-regions of Europe. Analysis by stroke sub-type revealed that recent plateauing was most common for haemorraghic stroke and increases were most common for ischaemic stroke. CONCLUSION: These findings highlight the need for continued research into the inequalities in both current stroke mortality outcomes and trends across Europe, as well as the causes behind any recent plateauing of total cerebrovascular disease or its subtypes.