Cattle production strategies to deliver protein with less land and lower environmental impact.

Global land resources are over-exploited and natural habitats are declining, often driven by expanding livestock production. In Ireland, pastureland for grazing cattle and sheep account for circa 60% of terrestrial land use. The agriculture, forestry and other land use sector (AFOLU) is responsible for 44% of national greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. A new Grassland Animal response Model (GLAM) was developed to relate livestock-cohort grass and feed requirements to farm-grassland system areas, enhancing environmental assessment of prospective AFOLU configurations. Although land conversion targets are often well-defined, they tend to lack a clear definition of where land sparing can occur. Through analyses of 10 scenarios of milk and beef production and management strategies, we found that displacing beef cows with dairy cows can increase national protein output while sparing up to 0.75 million ha (18%) of grassland (albeit with a minor increase in overseas land requirement for additional concentrate feed). Reducing slaughter age, increasing exports of male dairy calves and increasing grassland use efficiency on beef farms each achieved between 0.19 and 0.32 million ha of land sparing. Sexed semen to achieve more favourable male-female birth ratios had a minor impact. GHG emissions, ammonia emissions and nutrient leaching were only reduced substantially when overall cattle numbers declined, confirming the need for cattle reductions to achieve environmental objectives. Nonetheless, application of GLAM shows potential for improved grass and cattle management to spare good quality land suitable for productive forestry and wetland restoration. This change is urgently needed to generate scalable carbon dioxide removals from the land sector in Ireland, and globally.

Open Foris Collect Earth: a remote sensing sampling survey of Azerbaijan to support climate change reporting in the land use, land use change, and forestry.

Land use, land use change, and forestry (LULUCF) are critical in climate change mitigation. Producing or collecting activity data for LULUCF is essential in developing national greenhouse gas inventories, national communications, biennial update reports, and nationally determined contributions to meet international commitments under climate change. Collect Earth is a free, publicly accessible software for monitoring dynamics between all land use classes: forestlands, croplands, grasslands, wetlands, settlements, and other lands. Collect Earth supports countries in monitoring the trends in land use and land cover over time by applying a sample-based approach and generating reliable, high-quality, consistent, accurate, transparent, robust, comparable, and complete activity data through augmented visual interpretation for climate change reporting. This article reports forest extent estimates in Azerbaijan, analyzing 7782 0.5-ha sampling units through an augmented visual interpretation of very high spatial and temporal resolution images on the Google Earth platform. The results revealed that in 2016, tree cover existed in 31.9% of total land, equal to 2,751,167 ha and 1,301,188 ha or 15.1% of the total land, with a 5.4% sampling error covered by forests. The estimate is 15 to 25% higher than the previous estimates, equal to 169,418 to 260,888 ha of forest that was never reported in previous studies.

Using Open Foris Collect Earth in Kyrgyzstan to support greenhouse gas inventory in the land use, land use change, and forestry sector.

The Kyrgyz Republic (Kyrgyzstan) is one of the countries most vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change in Central Asia. The land use, land use change, and forestry (LULUCF) sector is critical in climate change mitigation in Kyrgyzstan and is integral to national greenhouse gas (GHG) inventories. However, consistent, complete, and updated activity data is required for the LULUCF sector to develop a transparent GHG inventory. Collect Earth (CE), developed by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), is a free, user-friendly, and open-source tool for collecting activity data for the LULUCF sector. CE assists countries in developing GHG inventories by providing consistent and complete land representation. This article reports an estimate of land use and land-use change dynamics in Kyrgyzstan, based on analyzing 13,414 1-hectare (ha) sampling units through an augmented visual interpretation approach using satellite imagery at the very high spatial and temporal resolution available through the Google Earth platform. The results show that in 2019, forests covered 1.36 million ha or 6.83% of the total land with a 6.23% uncertainty. This estimate was 5 to 16% higher than previous estimates, detecting an additional 63,024 to 188,164 ha of forestland that had not been reported previously. The new estimates suggest an average increase of 10.4% in the current forestlands of Kyrgyzstan.

Defining national biogenic methane targets: Implications for national food production & climate neutrality objectives.

Methane is a short-lived greenhouse gas (GHG) modelled distinctly from long-lived GHGs such as carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide to establish global emission budgets for climate stabilisation. The Paris Agreement requires a 24-47% reduction in global biogenic methane emissions by 2050. Separate treatment of methane in national climate policies will necessitate consideration of how global emission budgets compatible with climate stabilisation can be downscaled to national targets, but implications of different downscaling rules for national food production and climate neutrality objectives are poorly understood. This study addresses that knowledge gap by examining four methods to determine national methane quotas, and two methods of GHG aggregation (GWP100 and GWP*) across four countries with contrasting agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU) sectors and socio-economic contexts (Brazil, France, India and Ireland). Implications for production of methane-intensive food (milk, meat, eggs and rice) in 2050 and national AFOLU climate neutrality targets are explored. It is assumed that methane quotas are always filled by food production where sufficient land is available. Global methane budgets for 1.5 °C scenarios are downscaled to national quotas based on: grand-parenting (equal percentage reductions across countries); equity (equal per capita emissions); ability (emission reductions proportionate to GDP); animal protein security (emissions proportionate to animal protein production in 2010). The choice of allocation method changes national methane quotas by a factor of between 1.7 (India) and 6.7 (Ireland). Despite projected reductions in emission-intensities, livestock production would need to decrease across all countries except India to comply with quotas under all but the most optimistic sustainable intensification scenarios. The extent of potential afforestation on land spared from livestock production is decisive in achieving climate neutrality. Brazil and Ireland could maintain some degree of milk and beef export whilst achieving territorial climate neutrality, but scenarios that comply with climate neutrality in India produce only circa 30% of national calorie and protein requirements via rice and livestock. The downscaling of global methane budgets into national policy targets in an equitable and internationally acceptable manner will require simultaneous consideration of the interconnected priorities of food security and (land banks available for) carbon offsetting.

Forest carbon stock development following extreme drought-induced dieback of coniferous stands in Central Europe: a CBM-CFS3 model application.

BACKGROUND: We analyze the forest carbon stock development following the recent historically unprecedented dieback of coniferous stands in the Czech Republic. The drought-induced bark-beetle infestation resulted in record-high sanitary logging and total harvest more than doubled from the previous period. It turned Czech forestry from a long-term carbon sink offsetting about 6% of the country's greenhouse gas emissions since 1990 to a significant source of CO2 emissions in recent years (2018-2021). In 2020, the forestry sector contributed nearly 10% to the country's overall GHG emissions. Using the nationally calibrated Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector (CBM-CFS3) at a regional (NUTS3) spatial resolution, we analyzed four scenarios of forest carbon stock development until 2070. Two critical points arise: the short-term prognosis for reducing current emissions from forestry and the implementation of adaptive forest management focused on tree species change and sustained carbon accumulation. RESULTS: This study used four different spruce forest dieback scenarios to assess the impact of adaptive forest management on the forest carbon stock change and CO2 emissions, tree species composition, harvest possibilities, and forest structure in response to the recent unprecedented calamitous dieback in the Czech Republic. The model analysis indicates that Czech forestry may stabilize by 2025 Subsequently, it may become a sustained sink of about 3 Mt CO2 eq./year (excluding the contribution of harvested wood products), while enhancing forest resilience by the gradual implementation of adaptation measures. The speed of adaptation is linked to harvest intensity and severity of the current calamity. Under the pessimistic Black scenario, the proportion of spruce stands declines from the current 43-20% by 2070, in favor of more suited tree species such as fir and broadleaves. These species would also constitute over 50% of the harvest potential, increasingly contributing to harvest levels like those generated by Czech forestry prior to the current calamity. The standing stock would only be recovered in 50 years under the optimistic Green scenario. CONCLUSION: The results show progress of adaptive management by implementing tree species change and quantify the expected harvest and mitigation potential in Czech forestry until 2070.

Wildfire national carbon accounting: how natural and anthropogenic landscape fires emissions are treated in the 2020 Australian government greenhouse gas accounts report to the UNFCCC.

Greenhouse gas (GHG) accounting of emissions from land use, land-use change, and forestry necessarily involves consideration of landscape fire. This is of particular importance for Australia given that natural and human fire is a common occurrence, and many ecosystems are adapted to fire, and require periodic burning for plant regeneration and ecological health. Landscape fire takes many forms, can be started by humans or by lightning, and can be managed or uncontrolled. We briefly review the underlying logic of greenhouse gas accounting involving landscape fire in the 2020 Australian Government GHG inventory report. The treatment of wildfire that Australia chooses to enact under the internationally agreed guidelines is based on two core assumptions (a) that effects of natural and anthropogenic fire in Australian vegetation carbon stocks are transient and they return to the pre-fire level relatively quickly, and (b) that historically and geographically anomalous wildfires in forests should be excluded from national anthropogenic emission estimates because they are beyond human control. It is now widely accepted that anthropogenic climate change is contributing to increased frequency and severity of forest fires in Australia, therefore challenging assumptions about the human agency in fire-related GHG emissions and carbon balance. Currently, the national inventory focuses on forest fires; we suggest national greenhouse gas accounting needs to provide a more detailed reporting of vegetation fires including: (a) more detailed mapping of fire severity patterns; (b) more comprehensive emission factors; (c) better growth and recovery models from different vegetation types; (d) improved understanding how fires of different severities affect carbon stocks; and (e) improved analysis of the human agency behind the causes of emissions, including ignition types and fire-weather conditions. This more comprehensive accounting of carbon emissions would provide greater incentives to improve fire management practices that reduce the frequency, severity, and extent of uncontrolled landscape fires.

The role of forests in the EU climate policy: are we on the right track?

BACKGROUND: The European Union (EU) has committed to achieve climate neutrality by 2050. This requires a rapid reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and ensuring that any remaining emissions are balanced through CO2 removals. Forests play a crucial role in this plan: they are currently the main option for removing CO2 from the atmosphere and additionally, wood use can store carbon durably and help reduce fossil emissions. To stop and reverse the decline of the forest carbon sink, the EU has recently revised the regulation on land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF), and set a target of - 310 Mt CO2e net removals for the LULUCF sector in 2030. RESULTS: In this study, we clarify the role of common concepts in forest management - net annual increment, harvest and mortality - in determining the forest sink. We then evaluate to what extent the forest sink is on track to meet the climate goals of the EU. For this assessment we use data from the latest national GHG inventories and a forest model (Carbon Budget Model). Our findings indicate that on the EU level, the recent decrease in increment and the increase in harvest and mortality are causing a rapid drop in the forest sink. Furthermore, continuing the past forest management practices is projected to further decrease the sink. Finally, we discuss options for enhancing the sinks through forest management while taking into account adaptation and resilience. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings show that the EU forest sink is quickly developing away from the EU climate targets. Stopping and reversing this trend requires rapid implementation of climate-smart forest management, with improved and more timely monitoring of GHG fluxes. This enhancement is crucial for tracking progress towards the EU's climate targets, where the role of forests has become - and is expected to remain - more prominent than ever before.

Mind the gap: reconciling tropical forest carbon flux estimates from earth observation and national reporting requires transparency.

BACKGROUND: The application of different approaches calculating the anthropogenic carbon net flux from land, leads to estimates that vary considerably. One reason for these variations is the extent to which approaches consider forest land to be "managed" by humans, and thus contributing to the net anthropogenic flux. Global Earth Observation (EO) datasets characterising spatio-temporal changes in land cover and carbon stocks provide an independent and consistent approach to estimate forest carbon fluxes. These can be compared against results reported in National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (NGHGIs) to support accurate and timely measuring, reporting and verification (MRV). Using Brazil as a primary case study, with additional analysis in Indonesia and Malaysia, we compare a Global EO-based dataset of forest carbon fluxes to results reported in NGHGIs. RESULTS: Between 2001 and 2020, the EO-derived estimates of all forest-related emissions and removals indicate that Brazil was a net sink of carbon (- 0.2 GtCO2yr-1), while Brazil's NGHGI reported a net carbon source (+ 0.8 GtCO2yr-1). After adjusting the EO estimate to use the Brazilian NGHGI definition of managed forest and other assumptions used in the inventory's methodology, the EO net flux became a source of + 0.6 GtCO2yr-1, comparable to the NGHGI. Remaining discrepancies are due largely to differing carbon removal factors and forest types applied in the two datasets. In Indonesia, the EO and NGHGI net flux estimates were similar (+ 0.6 GtCO2 yr-1), but in Malaysia, they differed in both magnitude and sign (NGHGI: -0.2 GtCO2 yr-1; Global EO: + 0.2 GtCO2 yr-1). Spatially explicit datasets on forest types were not publicly available for analysis from either NGHGI, limiting the possibility of detailed adjustments. CONCLUSIONS: By adjusting the EO dataset to improve comparability with carbon fluxes estimated for managed forests in the Brazilian NGHGI, initially diverging estimates were largely reconciled and remaining differences can be explained. Despite limited spatial data available for Indonesia and Malaysia, our comparison indicated specific aspects where differing approaches may explain divergence, including uncertainties and inaccuracies. Our study highlights the importance of enhanced transparency, as set out by the Paris Agreement, to enable alignment between different approaches for independent measuring and verification.

The coalitional politics of the European Union's environmental forest policy: Biodiversity conservation, timber legality, and climate protection.

European forest policymaking is shaped by progressing European integration, yet with notable ideological divisions and diverging interests among countries. This paper focuses on the coalitional politics of key environmental forest issues: biodiversity conservation, timber legality, and climate protection policy. Combining the Advocacy Coalition Framework and the Shifting Coalition Theory, and informed by more than 186 key informant interviews and 73 policy documents spanning a 20-year timeframe, we examine the evolution of coalitional forest politics in Europe. We find that the basic line-up has remained stable: an environmental coalition supporting EU environmental forest policy integration and a forest sector coalition mostly opposing it. Still, strategic alliances across these coalitions have occurred for specific policy issues which have resulted in a gradual establishment of an EU environmental forest policy. We conclude with discussion of our findings and provide suggestions for further research.

Hydroperiod, soil moisture and bioturbation are critical drivers of greenhouse gas fluxes and vary as a function of landuse change in mangroves of Sulawesi, Indonesia.

The loss and degradation of mangroves can result in potentially significant sources of atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. For mangrove rehabilitation carbon projects, quantifying GHG emissions as forests regenerate is a key accounting requirement. The current study is one of the first attempts to systematically quantify emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrous oxide (N2O) and methane (CH4) from: 1) aquaculture ponds, 2) rehabilitating mangroves, and 3) intact mangrove sites and frame GHG flux within the context of landuse change. In-situ static chamber measurements were made at three contrasting locations in Sulawesi, Indonesia. The influence of key biophysical variables known to affect GHG flux was also assessed. Peak GHG flux was observed at rehabilitating (32.8 ±â€¯2.1 Mg CO2e ha-1 y-1) and intact, mature reference sites (43.8 ±â€¯4.5 Mg CO2e ha-1 y-1) and a dry, exposed disused aquaculture pond (30.6 ±â€¯1.9 Mg CO2e ha-1 y-1). Emissions were negligible at low productivity rehabilitating sites with high hydroperiod (mean 1.0 ±â€¯0.1 Mg CO2e ha-1 y-1) and an impounded, operational aquaculture pond (1.1 ±â€¯0.2 Mg CO2e ha-1 y-1). Heterogeneity in biophysical conditions and geomorphic position exerted a strong influence on GHG flux, with the longer hydroperiod and higher soil moisture content of seaward fringing mangroves correlated with decreased fluxes. A greater abundance of Mud lobster mounds and root structures in landward mangroves correlated to higher flux. When viewed across a landuse change continuum, our results suggest that the initial conversion of mangroves to aquaculture ponds releases extremely high rates of GHGs. Furthermore, the re-institution of hydrological regimes in dry, disused aquaculture ponds to facilitate tidal flushing is instrumental in rapidly mediating GHG flux, leading to a significant reduction in baseline emissions. This is an important consideration for forest carbon project proponents seeking to maximise creditable GHG emissions reductions and removals.

Impact of modelling choices on setting the reference levels for the EU forest carbon sinks: how do different assumptions affect the country-specific forest reference levels?

BACKGROUND: In 2018, the European Union (EU) adopted Regulation 2018/841, which sets the accounting rules for the land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) sector for the period 2021-2030. This regulation is part of the EU's commitments to comply with the Paris Agreement. According to the new regulation, emissions and removals for managed forest land are to be accounted against a projected forest reference level (FRL) that is estimated by each EU Member State based on the continuation of forest management practices of the reference period 2000-2009. The aim of this study is to assess how different modelling assumptions possible under the regulation may influence the FRL estimates. Applying the interlinked G4M and WoodCarbonMonitor modelling frameworks, we estimate potential FRLs for each individual EU Member State following a set of conceptual scenarios, each reflecting different modelling assumptions that are consistent with the regulation and the technical guidance document published by the European Commission. RESULTS: The simulations of the conceptual scenarios show that differences in the underlying modelling assumptions may have a large impact on the projected FRL. Depending on the assumptions taken, the projected annual carbon sink on managed forest land in the EU varies from -319 MtCO2 to -397 MtCO2 during the first compliance period (2021-2025) and from -296 MtCO2 to -376 MtCO2 during the second compliance period (i.e. 2026-2030). These estimates can be compared with the 2017 national GHG inventories which estimated that the forest carbon sink for managed forest land was -373 MtCO2 in 2015. On an aggregated EU level, the assumptions related to climate change and the allocation of forest management practices have the largest impacts on the FRL estimates. On the other hand, assumptions concerning the starting year of the projection, stratification of managed forest land, and timing of individual management activities are found to have relatively small impacts on the FRL estimates. CONCLUSIONS: We provide a first assessment of the level of uncertainty associated with the different assumptions discussed in the technical guidance document and the LULUCF regulation, and the impact of these assumptions on the country-specific FRL. The results highlight the importance of transparent documentation by the EU Member States on how their FRL has been calculated, and on the underlying assumptions.

Assessing the INDCs' land use, land use change, and forest emission projections.

BACKGROUND: In preparation for the 2015 international climate negotiations in Paris, Parties submitted Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) expressing each countries' respective post-2020 climate actions. In this paper we assess individual Parties' expected reduction of emissions/removals from land use, land use change, and forest (LULUCF) sector for reaching their INDC target, and the aggregate global effect on the INDCs on the future development of emission and removals from the LULUCF sector. This has been done through analysis Parties' official information concerning the role of LULUCF mitigation efforts for reaching INDC targets as presented in National Communications, Biennial Update Reports, and Additional file 1. RESULTS: On the aggregate global level, the Parties themselves perceive that net LULUCF emissions will increase over time. Overall, the net LULUCF emissions are estimated to increase by 0.6 Gt CO2e year-1 (range: 0.1-1.1) in 2020 and 1.3 Gt CO2e year-1 (range: 0.7-2.1) in 2030, both compared to 2010 levels. On the other hand, the full implementation of the INDCs is estimated to lead to a reduction of net LULUCF emissions in 2030 compared to 2010 levels. It is estimated that if all conditional and unconditional INDCs are implemented, net LULUCF emissions would decrease by 0.5 Gt CO2e year-1 (range: 0.2-0.8) by 2020 and 0.9 Gt CO2e year-1 (range: 0.5-1.3) by 2030, both compared to 2010 levels. The largest absolute reductions of net LULUCF emissions (compared to 2010 levels) are expected from Indonesia and Brazil, followed by China and Ethiopia. CONCLUSIONS: The results highlights that countries are expecting a significant contribution from the LULUCF sector to meet their INDC mitigation targets. At the global level, the LULUCF sector is expected to contribute to as much as 20% of the full mitigation potential of all the conditional and unconditional INDC targets. However, large uncertainties still surround how Parties estimate, project and account for emissions and removals from the LULUCF sector. While INDCs represent a new source of land-use information, further information and updates of the INDCs will be required to reduce uncertainty of the LULUCF projections.

EU mitigation potential of harvested wood products.

BACKGROUND: The new rules for the Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry sector under the Kyoto Protocol recognized the importance of Harvested Wood Products (HWP) in climate change mitigation. We used the Tier 2 method proposed in the 2013 IPCC KP Supplement to estimate emissions and removals from HWP from 1990 to 2030 in EU-28 countries with three future harvest scenarios (constant historical average, and +/-20% in 2030). RESULTS: For the historical period (2000-2012) our results are consistent with other studies, indicating a HWP sink equal on average to -44.0 Mt CO2 yr-1 (about 10% of the sink by forest pools). Assuming a constant historical harvest scenario and future distribution of the total harvest among each commodity, the HWP sink decreases to -22.9 Mt CO2 yr-1 in 2030. The increasing and decreasing harvest scenarios produced a HWP sink of -43.2 and -9.0 Mt CO2 yr-1 in 2030, respectively. Other factors may play an important role on HWP sink, including: (i) the relative share of different wood products, and (ii) the combined effect of production, import and export on the domestic production of each commodity. CONCLUSIONS: Maintaining a constant historical harvest, the HWP sink will slowly tend to saturate, i.e. to approach zero in the long term. The current HWP sink will be maintained only by further increasing the current harvest; however, this will tend to reduce the current sink in forest biomass, at least in the short term. Overall, our results suggest that: (i) there is limited potential for additional HWP sink in the EU; (ii) the HWP mitigation potential should be analyzed in conjunction with other mitigation components (e.g. sink in forest biomass, energy and material substitution by wood).